Washington Wizards guard Jordan Poole played well in the team’s win over the Sacramento Kings. | Photo by Kenny Giarla/NBAE via Getty Images
Stats, analysis, commentary.
The
Washington Wizards beat the Sacramento Kings last night, and the
Utah Jazz got stomped by the
Houston Rockets, which means Washington will almost certainly finish with the NBA’s second worst record this season.
When it comes to
trying to lose, Utah has been serious while the Wizards started playing better. Over their past 20 games, the Jazz have just two wins.
Finishing worst or second (or even third) worst doesn’t change the odds of getting the number one overall pick. “Extra” wins like the one against the Kings will matter if the Wizards drop. If they finished last, worst case would be the fifth pick. Each spot they move up in the standings is an additional spot lower in a worst case scenario. Hopefully, the basketball gods reward Washington for their ethical tank.
Last night, the Wizards won not because they played well (they didn’t) but because the Kings had one of those nights. Sacramento entered the game as a middle-of-the-pack three-point shooting team this season, got plentiful open looks from the Washington defense, and still hit just 10-39 (25.6%).
Meanwhile, the Wizards — the NBA’s second worst three-point shooting team in 2024-25 — hit 17-43 (39.5%).
The Kings made things interesting at the end despite their poor shooting because they dominated on the boards, committed fewer turnovers, and got to the free throw line more often.
Bright Spots and Observations
- Jordan Poole was excellent in his truncated playing time. He scored a highly efficient 23 points on 14 shots in 24 minutes.
- Bub Carrington, one of the team’s two 19-year-old rookies, played a solid game — 19 points, 7 assists, and 3 turnovers. He shot 5-11 from three-point range. At one point, he got a wide-open look from three, and the Kings broadcasters uttered a simultaneous, “Oh no!” (Carrington missed.)
- Justin Champagnie had a good role player “do some of everything” kind of game — 8 points, 11 rebounds, 3 assists, 2 steals, and a block.
- Tristan Vukcevic had 17 points, 8 rebounds, and 3 assists in 22 minutes. He also got into a verbal altercation with Kings guard Malik Monk, which resulted in a double-tech to cool them down.
- Two-way player JT Thor did not play well overall, but he did hit a dagger three late to secure the win. Fun moment: Vukcevich, who assisted on the shot, ran over to hug Thor when the Kings called timeout after the three.
- Former Wizards big man Jonas Valanciunas played well for the Kings, scoring 12 points and grabbing 6 rebounds in just 13 minutes.
Four Factors
Below are the four factors that decide wins and losses in basketball — shooting (efg), rebounding (offensive rebounds), ball handling (turnovers), fouling (free throws made).
The four factors are measured by:
- eFG% (effective field goal percentage, which accounts for the three-point shot)
- OREB% (offensive rebound percentage)
- TOV% (turnover percentage — turnovers divided by possessions)
- FTM/FGA (free throws made divided by field goal attempts)
In the table below are the four factors using the percentages and rates traditionally presented. There’s also a column showing league average in each of the categories to give a sense of each team’s performance relative to the rest of the league this season.
Stats & Metrics
Below are a few performance metrics. PPA is my overall production metric, which credits players for things they do that help a team win (scoring, rebounding, playmaking, defending) and dings them for things that hurt (missed shots, turnovers, bad defense, fouls).
PPA is a per possession metric designed for larger data sets. In small sample sizes, the numbers can get weird. In PPA, 100 is average, higher is better and replacement level is 45. For a single game, replacement level isn’t much use, and I reiterate the caution about small samples sometimes producing weird results.
POSS is the number of possessions each player was on the floor in this game.
ORTG = offensive rating, which is points produced per individual possessions x 100. League average last season was 114.8. Points produced is not the same as points scored. It includes the value of assists and offensive rebounds, as well as sharing credit when receiving an assist.
USG = offensive usage rate. Average is 20%.
ORTG and USG are versions of stats created by former Wizards assistant coach Dean Oliver and modified by me. ORTG is an efficiency measure that accounts for the value of shooting, offensive rebounds, assists and turnovers. USG includes shooting from the floor and free throw line, offensive rebounds, assists and turnovers.
+PTS = “Plus Points” is a measure of the points gained or lost by each player based on their efficiency in this game compared to league average efficiency on the same number of possessions. A player with an offensive rating (points produced per possession x 100) of 100 who uses 20 possessions would produce 20 points. If the league average efficiency is 114, the league — on average — would produced 22.8 points in the same 20 possessions. So, the player in this hypothetical would have a +PTS score of -2.8.
Players are sorted by total production in the game.
