News Wizards Team Notes

Recap: Wizards beat Heat in season finale, 119-118

Washington Wizards v Miami Heat

Photo by Megan Briggs/Getty Images

Tristan Vukcevic scored 28 points to lead Washington.

The Washington Wizards ended their season on a rare high note, narrowly edging the Miami Heat 119–118 in a Sunday matinee thriller at Kaseya Center. Despite playing without several key contributors, the Wizards’ young core delivered a surprise win over a short-handed Heat squad.

Tristan Vukcevic led the charge for Washington with 28 points and 11 rebounds off the bench, showcasing a dynamic inside-out game. Justin Champagnie added 27 points on an efficient 11-of-16 shooting, including five threes, while rookie Colby Jones flirted with a triple-double, posting 20 points, 10 boards, and 4 assists. Bub Carrington (15 pts, 9 ast) and Alex Sarr (10 pts, 8 reb) also chipped in, with Sarr battling in the paint to help the Wizards hold a 43–46 rebounding edge.

Miami’s Jaime Jaquez Jr. erupted for a career-high 41 points, keeping the Heat competitive despite the absence of Bam Adebayo and Tyler Herro. Josh Christopher added 17 off the bench, but the Heat couldn’t contain Washington’s ball movement and three-point shooting (16-of-37, 43.2%).

Though the Heat dominated points in the paint (76 to 46) and fast break scoring (25 to 11), Washington’s hot shooting and balanced offense proved just enough. A defensive stop in the final seconds preserved the win—just the Wizards’ 18th of the season.

For the Wizards, it’s a morale boost heading into a crucial offseason. For the Heat, it’s a frustrating loss, but Jaquez Jr.’s breakout performance provides a silver lining.

Source: https://www.bulletsforever.com/2025/4/13/24407657/washington-wizards-miami-heat-nba-game-recap
 
Breaking down the Wizards’ last win of the 2024-25 season

Washington Wizards v Miami Heat

Washington Wizards guard Bub Carrington hits the game winner over two Miami Heat defenders. | Photo by Issac Baldizon/NBAE via Getty Images

Stats, analysis, commentary

The Wizards committed to tanking for a tie with the Utah Jazz for the NBA’s worst record this season. All established veterans were stripped from the rotation. None were added back even when two-way forward JT Thor was a late scratch, which left them with just seven players available. A string of wacky and improbable plays — including a buzzer-beater from Bub Carrington, who doesn’t turn 20 for another 99 days.

Utah will probably lose to the Minnesota Timberwolves, which will leave the Wizards with the NBA’s second worst record. That doesn’t change their chances of getting the top pick in the upcoming draft (still 14%) — it means they could drop all the way to sixth in a worst case scenario instead of fifth. Hopefully the basketball gods grant Washington lottery favor as a reward for their (semi) ethical tanking.

Against the Miami Heat, the Wizards had just seven players available. The oldest and most experienced of them was 23-year-old Justin Champagnie, who was recently converted to a full NBA contract from the two-way deal he had most of the season. Champagnie, who just completed his fourth NBA season, has 1,890 career minutes — 71% of which came this season.

For comparison, Carrington played 2,458 minutes this season.

Towards the end of the third quarter, we got into a conversation on the Playback stream about the worst lineup head coach Brian Keefe could put on the floor in the final period, settling on Carrington, Champagnie, AJ Johnson, Tristan Vukcevic, and Colby Jones. Keefe kept that group out there the entire quarter, and they were outscored by seven. Securing the loss would have required getting outscored by nine, however.

The final few minutes got wacky. Miami’s Josh Christopher, who had an otherwise excellent final quarter (15 points, 3 rebounds, an assist and 3 steals), missed a transition dunk, and then committed a backcourt violation when the Heat need simply to inbound the ball successfully and maybe make a couple free throws to lock in the win.

Instead, the Wizards got the ball to Carrington with under five seconds to play, Carrington made a nifty behind-the-back dribble drive and hit a tough shot over two Miami defenders. The ball left his hand with just a tenth of a second on the clock and squeaked in for the first buzzer beating game-winner of his career.

Bright Spots and Observations​

  • Champagnie scored 17 first-half points and finished with 27 points (including 5-9 from three), 4 rebounds, 2 assists, a steal and 2 blocks. His offensive rating (points produced per possession x 100) was an excellent 139 (league average this season is 114.6).
  • Tristan Vukcevic scored a career-high 28 points and added 11 rebounds and 5 assists. His shooting was superb — 9-12 from the floor, 4-6 from three. One negative: 4 of Washington’s 11 turnovers.
  • Alex Sarr was productive in his 16 minutes on the floor — 10 points, 8 rebounds, 4 assists and a steal.
  • Carrington’s late-game heroics overshadowed an otherwise forgettable shooting afternoon. The glory stats line looks good: 15 points, 7 rebounds, 9 assists and just 1 turnover. But he shot just 6-18 and 3-9 from deep.
  • Colby Jones had 20 points, 10 rebounds and 4 assists. His overall performance was pretty meh — 9-18 from the floor, no made threes, a pair of turnovers. That tallied to a subpar 97 ortg.
  • AJ Johnson played the full 48 minutes. He had 8 assists to 2 turnovers.
  • Miami’s Jaime Jaquez Jr. scored a career high 41 points to go with 10 rebounds and 7 assists.

Next up for the Wizards is the NBA Draft Lottery on May 12. May the odds ever be in their favor.

Four Factors​


Below are the four factors that decide wins and losses in basketball — shooting (efg), rebounding (offensive rebounds), ball handling (turnovers), fouling (free throws made).

The four factors are measured by:

  • eFG% (effective field goal percentage, which accounts for the three-point shot)
  • OREB% (offensive rebound percentage)
  • TOV% (turnover percentage — turnovers divided by possessions)
  • FTM/FGA (free throws made divided by field goal attempts)

In the table below are the four factors using the percentages and rates traditionally presented. There’s also a column showing league average in each of the categories to give a sense of each team’s performance relative to the rest of the league this season.

Stats & Metrics​


Below are a few performance metrics. PPA is my overall production metric, which credits players for things they do that help a team win (scoring, rebounding, playmaking, defending) and dings them for things that hurt (missed shots, turnovers, bad defense, fouls).

PPA is a per possession metric designed for larger data sets. In small sample sizes, the numbers can get weird. In PPA, 100 is average, higher is better and replacement level is 45. For a single game, replacement level isn’t much use, and I reiterate the caution about small samples sometimes producing weird results.

POSS is the number of possessions each player was on the floor in this game.

ORTG = offensive rating, which is points produced per individual possessions x 100. League average last season was 114.8. Points produced is not the same as points scored. It includes the value of assists and offensive rebounds, as well as sharing credit when receiving an assist.

USG = offensive usage rate. Average is 20%.

ORTG and USG are versions of stats created by former Wizards assistant coach Dean Oliver and modified by me. ORTG is an efficiency measure that accounts for the value of shooting, offensive rebounds, assists and turnovers. USG includes shooting from the floor and free throw line, offensive rebounds, assists and turnovers.

+PTS = “Plus Points” is a measure of the points gained or lost by each player based on their efficiency in this game compared to league average efficiency on the same number of possessions. A player with an offensive rating (points produced per possession x 100) of 100 who uses 20 possessions would produce 20 points. If the league average efficiency is 114, the league — on average — would produced 22.8 points in the same 20 possessions. So, the player in this hypothetical would have a +PTS score of -2.8.

Players are sorted by total production in the game.

Source: https://www.bulletsforever.com/2025...n-wizards-miami-heat-nba-statistical-analysis
 
Mystics acquire 2026 first round pick from Lynx in exchange for Karlie Samuelson

Washington Mystics v Minnesota Lynx

Photo by Jordan Johnson/NBAE via Getty Images

Samuelson played one season for the Mystics.

On Monday, the Washington Mystics announced that they traded guard Karlie Samuelson to the Minnesota Lynx in exchange for Minnesota’s 2026 first-round draft pick.

Samuelson, who joined the Mystics as a free agent before the 2024 season, averaged 8.4 points, 2.6 rebounds, and 2.1 assists over 29 games. Losing Samuelson means that there will be more playing time for Sonia Citron and Georgia Amoore, the No. 3 and No. 6 picks in the 2025 WNBA Draft whom they selected earlier today.

In addition, it is notable that Samuelson will be heading to Minnesota because former head coach Eric Thibault is the new associate head coach of the Lynx. So he will get to work directly with a player from last season who helped Washington significantly with her three point shooting.

Let us know your thoughts in the comments below.

Source: https://www.bulletsforever.com/myst...-lynx-wnba-trade-karlie-samuelson-future-pick
 
Recap: the wildest NBA season of all time

Los Angeles Lakers v Washington Wizards

Photo by Kenny Giarla/NBAE via Getty Images

The Wizards took a back seat to the utter chaos of the 2024-25 NBA season.

The 2024-25 NBA regular season has officially concluded.

With the playoffs coming up this weekend after a yawn-inducing slate of play-in games, I want to take a look back at the wild ride that was the 2024-25 season.

Everything will be covered here — the most shocking trade in the history of sports, the closest MVP race in memory, the mind-blowing Western Conference standings and much, much more.

The worst draft in years


The first order of business in the 2024-25 NBA season was the draft. The Atlanta Hawks won the number one overall selection with just a 3% chance, and they took Frenchman Zaccharie Risacher with the pick.

This is probably going to be one of those drafts where you look back and can count the total All-Star selections on one hand. Risacher, Stephon Castle and Jared McCain are due a selection or two apiece, and maybe there’s a Giannis or a Jokic waiting in the wings as with recent weak drafts, but this was projected to be an underwhelming rookie class and has been so far.

That being said, if there’s anything the Wizards did well this season it was draft. Alex Sarr and Bub Carrington, while not franchise players, are definite keepers in this burgeoning young Wizards core. Kyshawn George is also a nice player to have on hand; I’m not totally sold on him as a central part of this team going forward, but he showed enough flashes as a rookie to get me to believe he has a long NBA career ahead of him.

The Wizards also plucked AJ Johnson from the Milwaukee Bucks in the Kyle Kuzma-Khris Middleton trade for free. As with George, I am a touch more skeptical than most of Johnson’s long-term projections, but hey: you got this guy for free and he’s showing flashes of freak athleticism — why not give him some burn, especially this late in a lost season?


AJ Johnson’s dunk highlight reel with the Wizards is already ridiculous pic.twitter.com/Qxj6LuGa9k

— Hoop District (@Hoop_District) March 30, 2025

Father and son


With the 55th overall pick in the draft, the Los Angeles Lakers selected Bronny James, pairing him with his father LeBron James. LeBron and Bronny then became the first father-son duo to play in the same game together, which was a genuinely tear-jerking moment.

I still play basketball in the backyard with my dad when I’m back home in Los Angeles. Sure, at 50 he doesn’t move like he used to (and most of our games end somewhere in the neighborhood of 11-1, Marco), but still being able to hoop with my dad makes me feel like I’m a kid again, and it’s arguably what I most look forward to every time I visit home. I can only imagine how LeBron and Bronny must feel when they take the court together.

League-shaking trades


The Kuzma-Middleton swap would have been one of the biggest moves of the trade deadline in each of the past couple of seasons. This year, the NBA landscape shifted so seismically that it barely even registered for most fans.

There’s one trade that will be granted its own section. You know which one I’m talking about. There were still some other moves that completely altered some franchises’ future outlooks.

Just as training camp was about to open, the Minnesota Timberwolves decided to shoot themselves in the foot by dishing Karl-Anthony Towns to the New York Knicks in exchange for Julius Randle and Donte Divincenzo. Minnesota made the move for financial reasons, but they were three wins from the NBA Finals last season and decided to part ways with their second best player.

At midseason, De’Aaron Fox got flipped to San Antonio to become Wemby’s costar in a three-team deal that saw Zach LaVine reunite with old pal DeMar DeRozan in Sacramento. Great move for San Antonio. The DeRozan-LaVine pairing shockingly has Sacramento sitting in the play-in game with a 40-42 record.

Jimmy Butler’s messy divorce with Pat Riley and the Miami Heat culminated in a trade to Golden State. The Warriors are 23-7 and one of the best teams in the NBA with Butler in the lineup, while the Heat dropped 10 straight at one point following the trade and will play a road play-in game against the should-be-tanking Chicago Bulls. It looks like Butler took the kids in the divorce.

The most shocking, unexplainable trade in the history of sports


Picture this.

I’m minding my business on a Saturday night. My buddy Joey left my house around 11 PM and I started getting ready to call it a night early. Then Shams Charania dropped a nuclear bomb on me and everyone else who’s even somewhat in tune with NBA basketball.

I immediately called my 17-year-old brother up on FaceTime, and he and his friends circled up around the phone like the Jedi Council to break down the unfathomable event to which we were collectively bearing witness.

The Dallas Mavericks traded LUKA F^$#%*!] DONCIC!!!!!!!!!


Yes, this is real. Sources tell ESPN: Full trade:

- Lakers: Luka Doncic, Maxi Kleber, Markieff Morris

- Mavericks: Anthony Davis, Max Christie, 2029 LAL 1st

- Jazz: Jalen Hood-Schifino, 2025 Clippers 2nd, 2025 Mavericks 2nd https://t.co/bltojdTaQj

— Shams Charania (@ShamsCharania) February 2, 2025

It’s been over two months and I am still in genuine disbelief. There’s nothing new I can add to this conversation at this point. Yes, it was the most rash and foolish decision I’ve ever seen a professional sports organization make. Yes, it is nothing short of professional malpractice that Dallas never shopped Doncic around to maximize the return. Yes, it was grossly unprofessional and tone-deaf to insult Doncic on his way out the door.

It was at least vindicating to see the Mavericks organization repeatedly punch itself in the face over and over and over and over again. Check out what Mavericks owner and governor Patrick Dumont had to say, via the Dallas Morning News:

“If you look at the greats in the league, the people you and I grew up with — Jordan, Bird, Kobe, Shaq — they worked really hard, every day, with a singular focus to win,”

I mean I guess, yeah, those players all WAIT A MINUTE. WHO WAS THAT LAST ONE????

Is there perhaps a second person also named Shaq to whom Dumont is referring? If he was referring to Shaquille O’Neal as a person who worked hard and was singularly focused on winning, then that should tell you everything you need to know about Dumont’s lack of consideration or knowledge about NBA history.

I could go on and on about the insanity of the Luka Doncic trade. My grandpa, who hasn’t really followed the NBA in decades save for reading my articles, called me within a half hour of the trade to talk me through how it was even crazier than the Lakers’ Wilt Chamberlain trade. My head is still spinning.

What are Mavs fans saying these days? Right. Fi-re Ni-co!

Ludicrous firings


Recent reporting seems to indicate that the dismissals of Memphis Grizzlies head coach Taylor Jenkins and Denver Nuggets head coach Michael Malone were both inevitabilities. That doesn’t make the timing of either layoff any less bewildering.

The 44-29 Memphis Grizzlies fired Jenkins with nine games left to play. Jenkins is the franchise’s all-time leader in games coached and wins as a coach, and his was not seen as a particularly vulnerable position considering the impending postseason. That being said, a “now they tell us” piece (as Bill Simmons would call it) from The Athletic revealed that the only surprise in the firing was the timing, and Jenkins was almost certainly going to be out the door barring a miracle championship.

Malone’s firing was far more shocking. Malone, like Jenkins, is his respective franchise’s all-time leader in both games coached and wins, but unlike Jenkins, Malone guided his team to a championship two seasons ago. An Athletic “now they tell us” piece revealed cavernous rifts between Malone and the Nuggets’ front office that resulted in not just Malone’s firing but also general manager Calvin Booth’s dismissal with just three games to play.

Malone’s firing tied for the latest head coach firing in NBA history and was the latest for any playoff-bound team.

Just like with the Luka Doncic trade, there will surely be more questions than answers regarding these two firings for the foreseeable future. I genuinely don’t know what to think of the Jenkins firing considering every other playoff team in the West is licking its chops and fantasizing about playing Memphis in round one.

For Malone, the only plausible explanation I can think of is that the bridge between him and the Nuggets organization had already been burned, and a potential surprise run to the conference finals or NBA Finals would complicate the inevitable firing process. I don’t think the LA Clippers are particularly scared of Denver in their upcoming playoff series.

The Wild West’s photo finish


The way the Western Conference playoff race shook out down to the final day of the regular season reminds me of the movie Cars when Lightning McQueen’s tires blow out and he wins the race by sticking his tongue out to win by a fraction of an inch.

Here were the playoff scenarios when every team had two games left to play:


There are 15 postseason seeds still to be determined with two game days left in the regular season. All 30 teams will be in action tonight and again on Sunday.

The seed possibilities entering tonight's games ⬇️ pic.twitter.com/acD2OLuv66

— NBA Communications (@NBAPR) April 11, 2025

It got so messy that with a game to play, the LA Clippers could only finish fourth, fifth or seventh — not sixth. Somehow.


The NBA just confirmed the Clippers cannot finish 6th, so there will be no Battle of LA in the first round.

It will be either a 4/5 or 7th place finish for the Clippers, with a win over Golden State guaranteeing top-5. pic.twitter.com/7jaCUtdayh

— Joey Linn (@joeylinn_) April 12, 2025

The standings concluded with seeds three, four and five being the Lakers, Nuggets and Clippers, all with identical 50-32 records. Those three were a game up on the sixth-seeded Timberwolves, who themselves were just one game up on the seventh- and eighth-seeded Warriors and Grizzlies. Two games separated seeds three and eight.

The best MVP race in decades


This season’s MVP race has come down to two of the greatest offensive seasons of all time.

One of the two belongs to Nikola Jokic and is arguably the greatest offensive season of all time, but Jokic’s Nuggets are wholly unthreatening. Jokic is AVERAGING A THIRTY-POINT TRIPLE DOUBLE on the season, but his Nuggets have had a bumpy season and, as I mentioned earlier, are probably going to be a tasty little warmup for the Clippers in the first round of the playoffs.

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, meanwhile, is pouring in 32.7 points, 6.4 assists and 5.0 rebounds per game for a Thunder team that won 68 games. Even if you do not subscribe to the “best player on the best team” MVP philosophy, SGA’s numbers are unassailable.

He’s also doing this while mostly just chilling with his buddies on the bench in the fourth quarters of games, as the Thunder have a +12.9 net rating this season, good for second best of all time.

I think when push comes to shove, considering just how dominant the Thunder have been, SGA will walk away with the award. If I had a vote (and hopefully I will someday if you guys keep clicking on my articles), I would lean Jokic, who is having, as I mentioned, the greatest offensive season of all time. Maybe it just comes down to my intrinsic pro-Balkan bias, but I think that a 30/13/10 statline while at least keeping his team competitive is ever so slightly preferable to SGA’s robotically efficient 33 points per game.

Dueling disasters


The Phoenix Suns and Philadelphia 76ers both spent this season defecating on James Naismith’s grave. Both situations were self-inflicted.

Wizards fans, I needn’t remind you what personnel decision locked the Suns in NBA Guantanamo Bay and single-handedly threw the Kevin Durant-Devin Booker era of Phoenix basketball in the garbage. Perhaps someday we will have the “Mat Ishbia rule” protecting teams from taking a financial crowbar to their own kneecaps the way the Ted Stepien rule today protects teams from casting all their draft picks into the wind.

The Suns finished with a 36-46 record and failed to even make the play-in tournament with two first-ballot Hall-of-Famers averaging a combined 52.2 points per game. Kevin Durant, you are a Houston Rocket, and Devin Booker, you are a Detroit Piston.

Injuries played more of a role in Philly’s disastrous season, but they are nonetheless in almost as dire a situation as the Suns. Joel Embiid managed a meager 19-game outing and shot 44% from the field before being shut down for the season. Embiid has played nothing like his past MVP self, is on the wrong side of 30, and has a three-year $200 million extension about to kick in. GULP!

Paul George is even deeper into his thirties, is on the first year of a four-year, $210 million contract, and was arguably worse than the infinitely-maligned Tobias Harris in the 41 games he farted out in between podcast episodes. GULP!!

Rookie Jared McCain and Tyrese Maxey are the future of this team, but that designation comes with a couple of catches. For one, both were shut down for the season, Maxey with 52 games under his belt and McCain with just 23. It’ll also be nearly impossible to build a competent roster around the two with Embiid and George on crutches soaking up half the salary cap every season. The two have such prohibitive contracts and injury histories that they are already negative assets a year into George’s contract and year before Embiid’s even begins.

The basketball gods can not reward Philly with Cooper Flagg after they stumbled ass-backward into probably keeping their lightly-protected first round pick this year. The gods actually literally cannot send him to Phoenix, as the Suns don’t control their first round pick until the year 2097.

Here lies basketball in Phoenix and Philly.

Only one can capture the Flagg


Duke’s Cooper Flagg is the consensus top prospect in this year’s draft, and taking a look at some of the rosters teams were wheeling out at the end of the season… boy, can you tell.

The tankathon ranged from the Wizards (“Our roster is not competitive enough to win 20 games”) to the Jazz (“Lauri Markkanen, our doctor is going to diagnose you with a sore [insert body part]”) to the Sixers (I swear they are just making up guys and putting NBA uniforms on them).

The Wizards failed (?) to finish with the worst record in the NBA, as the Utah Jazz edged them out (?) to finish 17-65 on the last day of the season. As a result, Utah will be selecting no later than fifth overall, while the Wizards are still in play for sixth. Check here for the full odds ahead of the draft lottery on May 12.

Other things worthy of a mention


Here’s a lightning round of other important storylines and notes from the season that I thought needed a mention:

  • Pour one out for Victor Wembanyama, whose 2024-25 Defensive Player of the Year case was the most open-and-shut case I’ve ever seen for an end-of-season award before he was lost for the season due to blood clots. Wemby played in just 46 games yet still blocked 30 more shots than the qualifying blocks leader, Brook Lopez. Hoping for the best for Wemby!
  • On that note: if Draymond Green wins the DPOY this year, I will riot.
  • Ivica Zubac will likely not win the Most Improved Player award, which is a travesty. Perhaps my pro-Balkan bias is showing once again, but Big Zu has emerged as a top three-to-five center in the NBA this season and is the number one reason (other than Kawhi Leonard’s long-anticipated healthy run) that the LA Clippers are possibly the scariest non-Thunder threat in the West.
  • Shoutout to LeBron James, who is still one of the best players in the NBA despite turning 40 during the season. I still haven’t even graduated college yet and I can already feel my body breaking down. There’s levels to this.
  • James will also likely finish this season, his twenty-second, with an appearance on the All-NBA Second Team. The only other player to play 22 seasons in NBA history is Vince Carter, who averaged 5.0 points per game for the 2020 Atlanta Hawks. Like I said. There’s levels to this.
  • If you want to get an early look into next season’s awards, I’m thinking Bilal Coulibaly will be my Most Improved Player pick for 2026. He is a uniquely terrifying defender already, and if he can round out his, uh, rough offensive game into at least something credible, and the Wizards climb up to low-to-mid 30s in wins, I think Coulibaly is a real MIP candidate.
  • Former Wizard Jonas Valanciunas has achieved the vaunted feat of playing in six consecutive play-in tournaments. For those counting at home, this means Valanciunas has played in every single play-in tournament since its inception.
  • I’d be remiss not to mention Bub Carrington’s game 82 buzzer-beating game-winner, which is the most mind-blowing (non-heave) buzzer-beater that I’ve seen since Kawhi Leonard’s in 2019. It’s worth mentioning that that shot capped a season in which Bub was the lone rookie to play all 82 games (Detroit’s Ron Holland missed one game due to suspension).

️ BUB ️ CARRINGTON!!!!! https://t.co/fEnyZhm1iK pic.twitter.com/WRj1oj6fCc

— Washington Wizards (@WashWizards) April 13, 2025
  • On that note, I always like to give a shoutout to the guys who played all 82 games. Props to Bub, Jalen Green, Mikal Bridges, Malik Beasley, Jarrett Allen, Harrison Barnes, Jaden McDaniels, Buddy Hield, Julian Champagnie, Nickeil Alexander-Walker and, most importantly, Chris Paul. Paul turns 40 in a couple of weeks and became the first player in NBA history to start all 82 games in year 20 or later.

So that’s a wrap on the 2024-25 regular season, which gifted us with more outrageous moments on a weekly basis than we usually get from a whole season. I’m 3000 words in and haven’t even mention the hysterical Donte DiVincenzo-Isaiah Stewart fight, Luka Doncic crying during his homecoming video tribute, the feisty Portland Trail Blazers or a hundred other notable occurrences.

As always, feel free to drop a comment on this post or mention me on Twitter @MarcoGacina (if you’re even still on that, which I barely am) with your thoughts. I’ll be replying to everything.

Source: https://www.bulletsforever.com/2025...mes-jokic-shai-gilgeous-alexander-ivica-zubac
 
Mystics take Citron with the third overall pick

2025 WNBA Draft

Photo by Elsa/Getty Images

Citron is the first of the Mystics’ three top-six picks.

With the third overall pick in the 2025 WNBA Draft, the Washington Mystics selected guard Sonia Citron out of the University of Notre Dame.

Citron was selected after the Dallas Wings took Paige Bueckers first overall and the Seattle Storm took Dominique Malonga second overall.

When Notre Dame teammate Olivia Miles announced she was entering the transfer portal instead of the WNBA Draft, Citron became a lock to be selected as a lottery pick. Now, Citron heads to Washington alongside the [3 or 4] and upcoming sixth pick

Citron became a full-time starter partway through her freshman season, and she has started every collegiate game since. During the last two seasons, Citron was a secondary scoring option behind sophomore Hannah Hidalgo. As a senior Citron averaged 14.1 points and 5.4 rebounds per game as her Fighting Irish fell in the Sweet 16 of the NCAA Tournament to Hailey Van Lith’s TCU.

Citron will likely be a day-one starter in Washington, as the Mystics’ roster is severely lacking in guard depth. Jade Melbourne, Sug Sutton and Brittney Sykes are currently the only guards the Mystics have under contract.

Source: https://www.bulletsforever.com/2025/4/14/24408545/washington-mystics-sonia-citron-wnba-draft-2025
 
WNBA Draft 2025: Mystics select Zaay Green No. 32 overall

NCAA Women’s Basketball Tournament - Second Round - College Park

Photo by Patrick Smith/Getty Images

Green comes to the Mystics from the University of Alabama.

Zaay Green, a 6’2 guard from Alabama, was selected by the Washington Mystics in the third round of the 2025 WNBA Draft with the No. 32 overall pick.

Green’s collegiate journey spanned multiple programs, including Tennessee, Texas A&M and Arkansas-Pine Bluff before coming to Alabama. She concluded her college career with averages of 12.9 points, 5.3 rebounds, and 3.8 assists per game, earning two All-SWAC honors (at Arkansas-Pine Bluff) and SEC All-Freshman recognition in 2018 while at Tennessee.

Given that Green is a bit older since she played six seasons of college basketball due to a combination of medical redshirts and coronavirus eligibility extensions, she may be better positioned to compete right away than other players.

Source: https://www.bulletsforever.com/myst...-2025-mystics-select-zaay-green-no-32-overall
 
WNBA Draft 2025: Mystics select Lucy Olsen No. 23 overall

USC v Iowa

Photo by Matthew Holst/Getty Images

She comes from the University of Iowa.

Lucy Olsen, a standout guard from Iowa, was selected 23rd overall by the Washington Mystics in the 2025 WNBA Draft.

After transferring from Villanova, Olsen led the Hawkeyes in scoring 17.9 points per game in 2024-25, earning First-Team All-Big Ten honors. Known for her versatile scoring, sharp court vision, and defensive tenacity, the 5’10 Pennsylvania native brings another player to the Mystics’ backcourt.

Olsen’s selection continues Iowa’s recent tradition of producing WNBA talent, following Caitlin Clark’s No. 1 overall pick in 2024.

Source: https://www.bulletsforever.com/myst...-2025-mystics-select-lucy-olsen-no-23-overall
 
Mystics take Amoore with the sixth pick

2025 WNBA Draft

Photo by Elsa/Getty Images

With Amoore and Sonia Citron, the Mystics have their backcourt of the future.

The Washington Mystics selected guard Georgia Amoore out of the University of Kentucky with the sixth overall pick in the 2025 WNBA Draft.

Amoore is the Mystics’ third pick of the night after they selected Notre Dame guard Sonia Citron third overall and USC forward Kiki Iriafen fourth overall. She may share a backcourt with Citron as the starting point guard, but given concerns over her size translating to the WNBA level, she may also start the season coming off the bench.

Amoore spent her final collegiate season at Kentucky, where she averaged 19.6 points and 6.9 assists per game. She had spent her previous four college seasons at Virginia Tech, where she had initially emerged as one of the best passers in the nation.

Amoore showed up to the draft in a sleek suit designed by former Wizard Russell Westbrook, with whom she appeared in the draft’s pre-game show.


Georgia Amoore rocked a custom look designed by none other than Russell Westbrook

The duo shares how this WNBA draft look collab came to life pic.twitter.com/3dWit0nyVT

— NBA on ESPN (@ESPNNBA) April 15, 2025

Source: https://www.bulletsforever.com/2025/4/14/24408578/washington-mystics-draft-georgia-amoore-wnba-draft
 
Netflix to air documentary on Arenas & Crittenton locker room incident

Charlotte Bobcats v Washington Wizards

Photo by David Dow/NBAE via Getty Images

A series called “UNTOLD” will first begin with “Shooting Guards,” a documentary when Gilbert Arenas and Javaris Crittenton both brought guns into the Washington Wizards’ locker room in December 2009.

As Washington Wizards fans, it is undeniable that the locker room incident of 2009 was the single-most franchise-altering event to rock the franchise’s trajectory. Yes, it ended the Gilbert Arenas Era. But without it, the subsequent John Wall Era almost definitely wouldn’t have happened.

And now, there will be a Netflix series that will focus on firsthand accounts of what happened in the locker room then. A series called UNTOLD will have an episode called “Shooting Guards,” taking a deep dive into the infamous 2009 locker room incident involving former Wizards guards Gilbert Arenas and Javaris Crittenton. The episode explores how a prank escalated into a confrontation where both teammates brandished firearms, leading to significant consequences for their careers and lives.

Arenas faced suspension and never fully regained his form though he’s now a podcaster and Playback superstar. Yes, the same Playback that we are on for Wizards games. Crittenton’s trajectory took a darker turn; after the incident, his basketball career ended, and in 2011, he was charged with the murder of Jullian Jones, a 22-year-old mother of four. He pleaded guilty to voluntary manslaughter and aggravated assault, resulting in a 23-year sentence, later reduced to 10 years. Crittenton was released from prison in April 2023.

You can watch UNTOLD: Shooting guards on May 13, 2025 on Netflix. The preview is above.

Source: https://www.bulletsforever.com/2025...documentary-gilbert-arenas-javaris-crittenton
 
Which teams are favored to win the first round of their NBA playoff series?

Oklahoma City Thunder v Washington Wizards

Photo by Patrick Smith/Getty Images

The Wizards aren’t in the NBA Playoffs obviously, but the men’s professional basketball season is now hitting full gear.

The 2025 NBA Playoffs begin today. While the Washington Wizards aren’t in contention, it’s worth examining the teams projected to win based on odds, as provided by FanDuel Sportsbook.

Eastern Conference Series:

  • Milwaukee Bucks vs. Indiana Pacers: The Pacers are favored with odds of -240, while the Bucks are underdogs at +190.
  • New York Knicks vs. Detroit Pistons: The Knicks are strong favorites with odds of -420, indicating a significant edge over the Pistons.
  • Indiana Pacers vs. Milwaukee Bucks: The Pacers have odds of -164, the Bucks at +138.
  • Boston Celtics vs. Orlando Magic: This series is expected to be anything BUT a contest. Boston has -8000 odds, and Orlando has +2200. Put your money elsewhere unless you think a miracle upset happens.

Western Conference Series:

  • Denver Nuggets vs. LA Clippers: The Clippers are slight favorites at -118, reflecting a closely contested matchup.
  • Los Angeles Lakers vs. Minnesota Timberwolves: The Lakers are favored with odds of -194, suggesting confidence in their ability to advance.
  • Houston Rockets vs. Golden State Warriors: The Rockets have odds of +146, Warriors at -174. So it can go either way, more or less.
  • Oklahoma City Thunder vs. Memphis Grizzlies: OKC has odds of -4000, Memphis with +1500. Too risky for me!


FanDuel is an SB Nation/Vox Media partner.

Source: https://www.bulletsforever.com/2025/4/19/24411595/fanduel-nba-playoffs-first-round-odds
 
SB Nation Reacts: Which teams do national NBA fans think are favored to win their first round series?

Milwaukee Bucks v Denver Nuggets

Photo by Garrett Ellwood/NBAE via Getty Images

Not every NBA playoff series has been finalized. YET. But here is what national NBA fans think so far.

Earlier this week, SB Nation Reacts ran surveys on which teams had the best chances of winning various first round 2025 NBA Playoff series. Here are the results of four of these series.

  • Lakers vs Timberwolves: The Los Angeles Lakers are heavily favored to win the series with 66% of the votes, while the Minnesota Timberwolves have 34%. LeBron James leads the Lakers, boosting their chances in this matchup.
  • Clippers vs Nuggets: The Los Angeles Clippers are narrowly favored with 52% of the votes, while the Denver Nuggets trail slightly at 48%. This series is expected to be closely contested, with both teams having strong rosters.
  • Knicks vs Pistons: The New York Knicks are projected to win with 67% of the votes, while the Detroit Pistons have only 33%. The Knicks’ strength seems to be a clear advantage in this matchup.
  • Pacers vs Bucks: The Indiana Pacers are slightly favored to win the series with 51% of the votes, while the Milwaukee Bucks are at 49%. This tight contest reflects a highly competitive series.

You can see the images below.


Here are the results from our SB Nation Reacts poll this week. pic.twitter.com/vwsF4QmGgV

— Bullets Forever (@BulletsForever) April 19, 2025

Let us know your thoughts in the comments below.



FanDuel is an SB Nation/Vox Media partner.

Source: https://www.bulletsforever.com/2025...k-are-favored-to-win-their-first-round-series
 
Washington Wizards wrap a colossally bad yet somehow encouraging 2024-25 season

Washington Wizards v Miami Heat

Bub Carrington led the Washington Wizards in minutes as a 19-year-old rookie. | Photo by Megan Briggs/Getty Images

Stats, analysis, commentary

An epically bad Washington Wizards season is in the books. By winning percentage, this was the second worst team in franchise history — its 22.0% winning percentage outpaced only by the 2023-24 squad’s 18.3%.

By scoring margin (or scoring margin adjusted for strength of schedule) this was the weakest team in franchise history. Other worsts?

  • Worst offensive rating relative to league average: -7.7 (second worst was the 2012-13 Wizards at -5.7)
  • Worst defensive rating relative to league average: -4.6 (second worst was the 2023-24 Wizards at -4.3).

This year’s squad spent much of the season chasing history, and they got there in some respects. Their handful of wins later in the season pulled them out of the discussion for worst ever teams going by winning percentage. They finished tied for 54th worst ever.

At -12.1 points per game, their adjusted scoring margin is third worst in league history. Only three other teams ever cracked -12.0 or worse:


The above is chronicled because a) it’s an important level set for where the team is, and b) it’s good to know and have written down somewhere to celebrate when the team is good again.

And yes, despite a very bad season with some brutal basketball and numbing losses, the team took some positive steps towards one day becoming good again. The feel-good rhetoric from general manager Will Dawkins wasn’t just a team exec selling the future. Even a grouchy old curmudgeon like me feels some optimism. Maybe — just maybe — the Wizards will become good enough to make a deep postseason and contend for a championship while I’m still young enough to enjoy it.

Here are some of the reasons I’m optimistic despite the horrendous season.

While acknowledging that injuries caused some minutes to be given instead of earned, Dawkins praised head coach Brian Keefe for giving players opportunities to play through mistakes while providing accountability. Let’s put some numbers to that. Here’s the team’s top five in minutes:

  1. Bub Carrington, age 19 — 2,458
  2. Jordan Poole, age 25 — 2,001
  3. Bilal Coulibaly, age 21 — 1,948
  4. Alex Sarr, age 19 — 1,814
  5. Kyshawn George, age 21 — 1,802

The 25-year-old Corey Kispert was sixth in minutes. Justin Champagnie (age 23) was seventh.

As Dawkins pointed out, this was the first time in two decades a trio of rookies (Carrington, Sarr, and George) got 1,800+ minutes. The team also set a record for most starts given to players age 21 or less.

Now, none of these youngsters played great. As you’ll see in the Player Production Average (PPA) table below, all of the 21-and-under crew rated below league average. That’s mostly okay — they were fine for their age, and it’s reasonable to think all could at minimum be contributors to a good team in the future.

I’ll be writing more about this in the weeks ahead, but the key takeaway is that the level of play from the team’s youngsters provides encouraging signals about their NBA futures.

While much of what Dawkins said in his press conference was fine, some was Monumental claptrap.

For example, the team playing at a fast pace for a second straight year — meaningless. Good teams play fast and slow. So do bad teams. What matters is efficiency. And the Wizards were dead last in offensive rating and 27th in defensive rating.

That the Wizards became the first team ever to have three rookies make 100+ thress is similarly useless. That’s a function of playing time (we’ve already covered that part) and the game’s evolution that encourages players to shoot threes. Put this one in the “hey, how ‘bout that” category.

Probably not meaningful: Dawkins said Kyshawn George was number one among rookies in on/off differential. While the stat is correct, the on-court number (-9.6) was still horrendous, the “positive” differential was probably not caused by George (his individual production was well below average), and he missed three key games: a 36-point loss to the Dallas Mavericks, a 28-point loss to the Memphis Grizzlies, and the 53-point loss to the Indiana Pacers.

More meaningful: Dawkins pointing to the team reaching 10th in three-point attempt rate. While they shot the second worst percentage from deep, the process shift to taking more threes is important.

Another key process stat Dawkins mentioned: Washington was eighth in shots contested and opponent two-point percentage went from 28th last season to 19th this year. The Wizards still have a long ways to go on the defensive end, but contesting shots is the best place to start. (As I’ve written many times previously, defense in the NBA is mostly about making the other team miss. To be clear, the Wizards are NOT making the other team miss, but they are at least contesting. Over time, the misses should come — especially as they continue to upgrade the roster.)

Speaking of roster upgrades, Dawkins said the team’s physical profile for defensive players are Sarr and Coulibaly — long, agile, and switchable. That’s a good prototype to build a good defense.

Last point on Dawkins’ presser — I liked his message to players that the offseason is a time for everyone to get better. He said he told them they have 170 days from the end of the season to the start of training camp, and that he challenged them to be different players when they come back.

The Wizards will need good fortune to become a title contender from where they are now. Dawkins and Michael Winger made some moves to add draft assets, but their not well-stocked with extra first round picks going forward. Ideally, they’ll hit The Lottery and enter next season with Cooper Flagg. Wherever they pick, Dawkins will need to nail it — find players who can contribute to a winning situation over the next 8-10 years, or be traded for players or picks who can.

It won’t be easy, but with good drafting, deft moves, and internal improvement, it’s at least possible. And that’s actually a step forward for this franchise.

Player Production Average: 2024-25 Washington Wizards​


Player Production Average (PPA) is an overall rating metric I developed that credits players for things they do that help a team win (scoring, rebounding, play-making, defending) and debits them for things that hurt the cause (missed shots, turnovers, fouls, ineffective defense). PPA is similar to other linear weight rating metrics such as John Hollinger’s PER, David Berri’s Wins Produced, Kevin Pelton’s VORP, and the granddaddy of them all, Dave Heeren’s TENDEX.

PPA weighs a player’s performance per possession against that of his competitors season by season. While PPA falls into the category of a linear weight metric, the values for statistical categories float a bit season-to-season based on league performance.

PPA is pace neutral, accounts for defense, and includes a “degree of difficulty” factor based on the level of competition a player faces while on the floor. Beginning with the 2019-20 season, I added a position/role adjustment designed to reflect how roles and on-court positioning affect individual abilities to produce certain stats.

In PPA, 100 is average, higher is better, and replacement level is 45.

  1. Khris Middleton — 14 games with Washington — PPA: 126. Acquired at the trade deadline in a deal that netted the Wizards a conditional future first round pick, Middleton played just 309 minutes for the Wizards, and he was actually pretty good. As in, Milwaukee would have been better if they’d kept Middleton instead of trading him for Kyle Kuzma.
  2. Jordan Poole — 68 games — PPA: 118. Second best season of Poole’s career (the best was three seasons ago when he was on the Golden State Warriors team that won a championship). His offensive efficiency was still subpar (-4.2 relative to average), but he’s competitive, plays through injuries that sideline a lot of colleagues (he probably would have played more games if the team had been competing for anything) and seemed to take on a leadership role throughout the season.
  3. Justin Champagnie — 62 games — PPA: 114. Is PPA saying Champagnie was the team’s third most productive player this season? Yep. He earned his way from a two-way deal to an NBA contract with efficient offense, rebounding, and defense. He looks like a versatile rotation forward for a good team.
  4. Richaun Holmes — 31 games — PPA: 111. He didn’t play much, but when he did, it was pretty good. Holmes’ contract for next season is non-guaranteed. He did enough to make it a certainty he’ll be in the NBA somewhere next season, even if it’s not Washington.
  5. Malcolm Brogdon — 24 games — PPA: 100. No surprise here. Brogdon’s been moving around despite being a good player and a great person because of his high salary and frequent injuries.
  6. Alex Sarr — 67 games — PPA: 77. Don’t get discouraged by the below average PPA, the poor offensive efficiency, or the relatively paltry rebounds (11.3 per 100 possessions) — this was an encouraging rookie year. Much of what seems “wrong” to my eye (and analysis) is that he’s not strong or experienced enough to get at-rim shots (which he converted at an above average 69.5%) so he settles for floater-range attempts instead. That’s to be expected for a 19-year-old rookie — and likely to change.
  7. Bilal Coulibaly — 59 games — PPA: 75. I felt somewhat disappointed by Coulibaly’s season until I ran him through my career forecaster and saw what his production at age 20 suggests for his future. He has LOTS of work to do on his body and his game. But he’s 20! At worst, he looks to be a plus defender for a good team.
  8. Colby Jones — 15 games — PPA: 68. Just 385 minutes for the 22-year-old. He had stretches where he looked like a potential rotation-level wing...and others where he looked awful. He did enough to merit a training camp and preseason look next season.
  9. Marcus Smart — 15 games — PPA: 66. Another trade deadline veteran acquisition. Smart’s a tough defender who had some nice moments in a Wizards uniform. His most important contribution was likely the competitive mentality and veteran accountability he brought. Don’t be shocked if he’s playing elsewhere next season.
  10. Tristan Vukcevic — 35 games — PPA: 65. Their second-round pick in 2024, Vukcevic is a 21-year-old big on a two-way contract. His shooting touch (and range) are genuine NBA assets. The rest of his game? Who knows? He did enough to be worth at least another training camp look. He has to commit to working on his body and all-around game.
  11. Bub Carrington — 82 games — PPA: 59. At 19-years-old, Carrington led the team in minutes. His performance was up and down, which is completely normal for a 19-year-old rookie. Overall, I share the general feeling of optimism about Carrington while acknowledging (like all the team’s youngsters) he needs tons of work on his body and his game.
  12. Corey Kispert — 61 games — PPA: 57. Kispert got much praise from the Monumental broadcast for improving as a player, and Dawkins singled him out for becoming a leader. I can’t speak to the leadership claim, but I can say that this was clearly Kispert’s worst season. I can also agree he’s improved in some areas (like attacking closeouts and finishing (except against size)). But he’s deficient in non-scoring areas such as play-making, defending, and rebounding, and the NBA is less and less a game for specialists. The Wizards would be wise to trade him before his stock goes lower.
  13. Kyshawn George — 68 games — PPA: 53. Of Washington’s youngsters, George’s season was the least impressive, and it was still at least somewhat encouraging. He competed on defense, showed some ball handling and playmaking skills, and shot decently after a horrific start.
  14. JT Thor — 11 games — PPA: 36. Big, athletic, had a great moment hitting a three. Overall, not so good but fine for a 22-year-old on a two-way contract.
  15. Anthony Gill — 51 games — PPA: 34. Gill’s on the team for his leadership and good vibes. His PPA (34) beat his age (32).
  16. AJ Johnson — 22 games — PPA: 26. The 20-year-old rookie didn’t get real NBA playing time until he arrived in Washington as part of the Kuzma for Middleton deal. Words that come to mind when thinking of Johnson: extremely slender, youthful, athletic. Somehow, he seemed impossibly younger than anyone else on the team. He made some eye-popping athletic plays. And since he’s on a guaranteed contract, he’ll be back. He has a long ways to go to become a quality NBA player.

PPA Scores for Other/Departed Wizards​

  • Jonas Valanciunas — WAS PPA: 100. Sacramento Kings PPA: 109
  • Marvin Bagley III — WAS PPA: 76. Memphis Grizzlies PPA: 66
  • Jared Butler — WAS PPA: 65. Philadelphia 76ers PPA: 95
  • Patrick Baldwin Jr. — WAS PPA: 60. Los Angeles Clippers PPA: 215 (only six minutes)
  • Jalen McDaniels — 7 minutes over 4 games. PPA: 57
  • Kyle Kuzma — WAS PPA: 48. Milwaukee Bucks PPA: 58 (Yes, Kuzma was awful in Washington and in Milwaukee.)
  • Jaylen Martin — Brooklyn Nets PPA: 48 (5 total minutes). WAS PPA: 40 (234 total minutes)
  • Johnny Davis — WAS PPA: 37.

Next up: the annual offseason performance ekgs . Vote below to let me know who you want me to analyze first.

Source: https://www.bulletsforever.com/2025...ly-bad-yet-somehow-encouraging-2024-25-season
 
Mystics embrace Winger’s vision with Wizards’ style draft strategy

2025 WNBA Draft

Photo by Brandon Todd / NBAE via Getty Images

The Michael Winger Era has now officially entered the Mystics’ side of Monumental Basketball.

The Washington Mystics’ 2025 WNBA Draft execution can simply be written by saying that they selected five new players, including three within the top six picks: Sonia Citron, Kiki Iriafen, and Georgia Amoore. Citron, a guard from Notre Dame, is lauded for her consistent shooting and defensive prowess, averaging 14.1 points and 5.4 rebounds in her senior year. Iriafen, a forward from USC, brings a strong interior presence with her 18.0 points and 8.4 rebounds per game, and potential to expand her range. Amoore, a guard from Kentucky, offers dynamic playmaking abilities, having averaged 19.6 points and 6.9 assists.

The Mystics further bolstered their roster by selecting Lucy Olsen, a versatile guard from Iowa, and Zaay Green, a seasoned 6’2” guard from Alabama, in the later rounds. Olsen led Iowa with 17.9 points per game, while Green’s extensive collegiate experience adds maturity and adaptability to the team.

But given that this site also covers the Washington Wizards, what the Mystics did, especially by selecting and keeping three first round picks, all in the Top 6, isn’t too different from what the Wizards did last year. Both the Mystics and Wizards’ strategies are led by Monumental Basketball President Michael Winger, while the Mystics’ General Manager is Jamila Wideman and her Wizards counterpart is Will Dawkins.

So what did the Wizards do again?

The Wizards’ 2024 NBA Draft also involved the team selecting and keeping multiple first round picks, where they selected Alex Sarr, Bub Carrington, and Kyshawn George. Sarr, a promising center, Carrington, a dynamic guard, and George, a versatile wing, were all given significant playing time, reflecting Winger’s commitment to developing young talent through experience. The Wizards’ approach resulted in a record-setting season for rookie minutes, indicating a clear investment in the future.

Winger’s influence on both franchises signifies a deliberate shift towards rebuilding through the draft, focusing on acquiring high-upside players and providing them with opportunities to grow. It’s unclear if the Mystics, or the Wizards, will be able to develop into long term winners. That is another article for another day. Also, the Mystics’ draft strategy showed fans that Winger is ready to take an active approach with the Mystics unlike the past two seasons, when he let then-General Manager Mike Thibault run the show. With Thibault parting ways with Winger, and now moving onto become the Head Coach of the Belgium women’s national basketball team, Winger is making his mark known on the Mystics too.

Do you think that the Mystics and Wizards’ strategies will pan out long term? Let us know in the comments below.

Source: https://www.bulletsforever.com/myst...ashington-wizards-similarities-michael-winger
 
The 2025 WNBA regular and postseasons will be longer than before

Indiana Fever v Washington Mystics

Photo by Greg Fiume/Getty Images

There will be 44 regular season games now. And the Finals are now a Best of 7 series.

The 2025 WNBA season signals a major turning point for the league, with significant changes that reflect its rapid growth and evolving competitive landscape. Here is what the Washington Mystics and all other teams will face this summer.

Expansion and Schedule


The Golden State Valkyries join as the WNBA’s 13th franchise, marking the league’s first expansion since 2008. The regular season will run from May 16 to September 11, 2025. Each team will play a record-high 44 regular-season games—22 at home and 22 on the road—up from 40 games in previous seasons.

WNBA regular seasons were just 34 games for most of the 2000s and 2010s.

Playoff Format Updates


The playoff structure has also evolved. The first round remains a best-of-three series but now follows a 1-1-1 format, ensuring both teams host at least one game. The semifinals will continue as best-of-five series.

The WNBA Finals have been expanded to a best-of-seven series, adopting a 2-2-1-1-1 format in line with the NBA Finals we see in June.

Let’s be real and say that I don’t think the Mystics will make the playoffs this year. But when they make them again, the format will be longer than in the past.

Commissioner’s Cup


The fifth annual Commissioner’s Cup returns as the league’s in-season tournament. A 17-day window in June will feature designated regular-season games that count toward Cup standings. The top teams from each conference will face off in a single championship game, expected to be held in late June or early July.

Source: https://www.bulletsforever.com/myst...gton-mystics-playoff-format-commissioners-cup
 
Poll: Grade the Wizards’ performance in the 2024-25 NBA season

Washington Wizards v Detroit Pistons

Photo by Nic Antaya/Getty Images

It has been just over a week since the NBA season ended. So now, let’s grade it.

Kevin Broom wrote a recap recently summing up the Washington Wizards’ 2024-25 season. I know, the preseason reports made it seem like the Wizards were destined to be among the worst NBA teams in history. In fact, the Wizards tied a franchise-record 16 game losing streak. Twice. But they ultimately finished 18-64, a three game improvement over their 2023-24 season.

Of course, the Wizards were going to have a rough season in the standings, but I agree with Kevin that Washington still made progress. Younger players like Alex Sarr, Bub Carrington and Kyshawn George received significant playing time early along with second year guard Bilal Coulibaly. It remains to be seen who stays long term. But for now, there’s a young core that should be part of the team’s future over the next several years.

I have a poll below so you can rate the Wizards’ performance this season. Vote in it and let us know your thoughts in the comments below.

Source: https://www.bulletsforever.com/2025/4/24/24415556/poll-washington-wizards-grade-season
 
Poll: Lakers, Clippers most likely to win series despite losing Game 1

Minnesota Timberwolves v Los Angeles Lakers - Game Two

Photo by Sean M. Haffey/Getty Images

The Lakers and Clippers are both 50-32 teams and in the Top 5 of the West, so this isn’t unexpected.

Earlier this week, SB Nation had a national survey on which teams are most likely to win their 2025 NBA Playoff series despite losing Game 1 of their series. Below are the results:


Here are the results from our @sbnreacts survey this week. pic.twitter.com/4a4jlWNx7G

— Bullets Forever (@BulletsForever) April 25, 2025

Two teams stand out in the results with the Los Angeles Lakers, the No. 3 seed in the Western Conference getting 28 percent of the vote and the Los Angeles Clippers, the No. 5 seed in the Western Conference getting 25 percent of the vote.

The Lakers lost Game 1 of their series to the Minnesota Timberwolves last Saturday, though they came back to win 94-85 in Game 2 last Tuesday. Today, at 9:30 p.m. ET, the Timberwolves will host the Lakers in Minneapolis.

For the Clippers, they lost Game 1 of their series to the Denver Nuggets on Saturday, 112-110. But the Clippers followed up with two straight wins: 105-102 in Game 2 last Monday and then beating Denver 117-83 yesterday in Game 3. Game 4 is tomorrow at 6 p.m. ET.

Which teams do you think will win the first round of the playoffs now that some games are in the books? Let us know in the comments below.



Brought to you by FanDuel.

Source: https://www.bulletsforever.com/2025...s-clippers-first-round-series-playoff-chances
 
Which teams are favored to win their NBA playoff games this weekend?

Los Angeles Clippers v Denver Nuggets - Game One

Photo by Matthew Stockman/Getty Images

The Washington Wizards aren’t in the NBA playoffs, but here is what is at stake with your wallets should you choose to put your money where your mouth is

The first round of the 2025 NBA Playoffs is still underway. Let’s take a look at the odds for the games that will be on today and tomorrow as the first round starts heading toward a close. For now, here are the odds per FanDuel.

Game 4: Cleveland Cavaliers vs. Miami Heat (Saturday, April 26 – 1 p.m. ET)

  • Cavaliers lead 2-1
  • Spread: Cavaliers -5.5 (-110), Heat +5.5 (-110)
  • Moneyline: Cavaliers -220, Heat +184
  • Over/Under (213): Over -112, Under -108

Game 3: Oklahoma City Thunder vs. Memphis Grizzlies (Saturday, April 26 – 3:30 p.m. ET)

  • Thunder lead 2-0
  • Spread: Thunder -15.5 (-108), Grizzlies +15.5 (-112)
  • Moneyline: Thunder -1100, Grizzlies +700
  • Over/Under (223): Over -110, Under -110

Game 3: Denver Nuggets vs. Los Angeles Clippers (Saturday, April 26 – 6 p.m. ET)

  • Series tied 1-1
  • Spread: Nuggets +6 (-110), Clippers -6 (-110)
  • Moneyline: Nuggets +194, Clippers -235
  • Over/Under (212.5): Over -114, Under -106

Game 3: Houston Rockets vs. Golden State Warriors (Saturday, April 26 – 8:30 p.m. ET)

  • Series tied 1-1
  • Spread: Rockets +3 (-106), Warriors -3 (-114)
  • Moneyline: Rockets +130, Warriors -154
  • Over/Under (203.5): Over -112, Under -108

Game 4: New York Knicks vs. Detroit Pistons (Sunday, April 27 – 1 p.m. ET)

  • Knicks lead 2-1
  • Spread: Knicks +2 (-108), Pistons -2 (-112)
  • Moneyline: Knicks +116, Pistons -134
  • Over/Under (217): Over -110, Under -110


FanDuel is an SB Nation/Vox Media partner.

Source: https://www.bulletsforever.com/2025/4/26/24417175/nba-playoffs-weekend-of-april-26-first-round-odds
 
Ex Wizards players have been in the NBA Finals since 2017

Boston Celtics v Washington Wizards

Photo by Patrick Smith/Getty Images

The Wizards themselves aren’t in the playoffs. But their players have a good track record when they head to other teams.

The Washington Wizards aren’t in the NBA Playoffs, but they do have a long streak that isn’t necessarily bad. Since 2017, the Wizards have had a former player on every NBA Finals team—a streak that continued in 2025.

This postseason, 18 ex-Wizards are playing for 11 of the 16 playoff teams, including the Boston Celtics, Milwaukee Bucks, Los Angeles Lakers, and Denver Nuggets. Notable names include Kristaps Porziņģis, Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, Bobby Portis, and Rui Hachimura. Each player’s journey from Washington to their current team highlights the Wizards’ role in shaping championship contenders.

Brianna Williams of ESPN wrote an article about this, citing an Esquire Sports TikTok. It’s an interesting look at former Wizards players who were able to be on Finals teams later on in their careers.

I don’t think this is necessarily a damning thing on the Wizards themselves. However, what is more telling is that the Wizards haven’t been an NBA championship contender themselves. Let us know your thoughts in the comments below.

Source: https://www.bulletsforever.com/2025/4/27/24417169/washington-wizards-former-players-nba-finals
 
Check out the Mystics’ media day highlights here

Indiana Fever v Atlanta Dream

Photo by Dale Zanine/NBAE via Getty Images

The Mystics’ training camp is underway and today is the first day of media arrangements.

Today, the Washington Mystics held Media Day. Marco Gacina was representing us while the players and coaches began giving their outlooks and optimism for this season. Check out Marco’s posts below.

Here is a post on what Head Coach Sydney Johnson had to say.


Mystics head coach Sydney Johnson on Washington’s young core of guards: pic.twitter.com/Z4P5nmKSno

— Marco Gacina (@MarcoGacina) April 28, 2025

Also, here’s what Kiki Iriafen had to say.


Fun fact: Mystics rookie @kikiiriafen and I graduated the same year from rival high schools in LA.

I asked her about her experience transitioning from LA to DC, which I went through four years ago. pic.twitter.com/3VD0YWGfHq

— Marco Gacina (@MarcoGacina) April 28, 2025

And below, Aaliyah Edwards.


Aaliyah Edwards on her 1 on 1 game and how she’s planning on incorporating it for the Washington Mystics this season: pic.twitter.com/NxYIKoWBwL

— Marco Gacina (@MarcoGacina) April 28, 2025

Source: https://www.bulletsforever.com/mystics/2025/4/28/24419546/washington-mystics-media-day-insights
 
Annual Checkup: Have the Wizards found a building block in Alex Sarr?

Washington Wizards v Miami Heat

Washington Wizards center Alex Sarr | Photo by Megan Briggs/Getty Images

Stats, analysis, commentary, and a performance EKG.

If you emerged from Alex Sarr’s rookie season with a vague (or even specific) sense of disappointment, I’m not going to say you’re wrong.

He was a mess at times. His offensive efficiency was 16.5 points per 100 possessions below average. He didn’t excel on the boards. Just 17% of the seven-footer’s field goal attempts were from within the restricted area. An epically bad team was worse when he was on the floor. His Player Production Average (PPA — my all-around rating system) was a below-average 77.

What I will suggest is to consider one key piece of information that’s super important when considering the context of his performance: he was just 19 years old. Washington’s season ended on April 13. He turned 20 two days ago.

Let’s unpack a bit. If you want stay worried, stay focused on that 98 (by my calculation) or 99 (according to Basketball-Reference’s method) offensive rating (points produced per 100 individual possessions). That ranks just 82nd among 125 teenaged rookies in NBA history, according to the B-R database.

There are some gaudy names who posted similar efficiency as teenaged rookies (LeBron James had a 99 ortg. Giannis Antetokounmpo was basically tied with Sarr. Kevin Durant managed a 100.) but don’t get too excited. The league’s offensive environment was different.

For example, LeBron’s ortg was about three points per 100 possessions below league average in his rookie season. Durant and Giannis were each about -8. Sarr was about -16.

That’s not entirely discouraging. High efficiency teenaged rookies tended to be rim-running bigs or players who played fewer minutes and were lower usage. The Wizards envision Sarr as a mobile big man who can stretch the floor with three-point shooting, and he was encouraged to explore the studio space despite some (at times) cringey results.

I’m not saying efficiency for a teenager doesn’t matter — it does. What seems to matter more is usage. In my reading of the available data, it appears that a kid attempting to make plays is a more important predictor of future success than succeeding.

Now, this is hardly linear. The top 10 in teenage rookies usage includes guys like Luka Doncic, Zion Williamson, Kyrie Irving, Carmelo Anthony, Lebron James, Kevin Durant, Anthony Edwards, and LaMelo Ball. It also includes Cam Whitmore and Scoot Henderson. Landing 11th: Emmanuel Mudiay.

Among this group, Sarr ranks 25th in usage — about the same level as players like RJ Barrett, Devin Booker, Jaren Jackson Jr., and Andrew Wiggins, and higher than names like Josh Giddey, Bradley Beal, Alperen Sengun, Zach LaVine, Jamal Murray, Jayson Tatum, Tracy McGrady, Jrue Holiday, Chris Bosh, Tony Parker, Kevin Garnett, Dwight Howard, and Giannis.

In other words, when looking at teenage rookies, Sarr was relatively high in “trying to make plays on offense” and relatively low in “succeeding at making plays on offense”. Again, my reading of the data suggests trying is more important at this early stage in a player’s career.

Through the years, I’ve written and said a number of times that when determining a player’s value, it’s critical to consider the totality of what he or she does on the floor. Basketball isn’t like baseball or football where players can specialize in specific situations. You have take the whole player, so it’s important to evaluate his all-around performance.

This brings me to Sarr’s PPA and what I call a performance EKG. PPA is my all-around rating metric, which rewards players for things they do to help a team win (making shots from the floor, getting to the free throw line, playmaking for teammates, rebounding, defending) and debits them for things that hurt (missing shots, committing turnovers, excessive fouling, poor defense). PPA includes accounting for role. In PPA, average is 100, higher is better, and replacement level is 45.

Sarr’s 77 PPA indicates a below-average season this season. Worth mention: it’s a bit above average for teenage rookies (average for that group is about 70).

At no point during the season did Sarr’s rolling full-season PPA score crack average. The closest he got was a 96 just five games into the season. He had several five-game stretches that were better than average, including an inspiring 207 over a five-game span in March. He had 10-game stints that topped average in January and again in March, and 20-game periods that were a bit better than average in March.

As the chart below indicates, there was no major improvement trend. That’s normal and not worrisome. Most players improve from offseason work. The ekg lines indicate a decent start, some struggles, a nice stretch of quality play in March, and then a cratering at the end of the year.

Kevin Broom
Washington Wizards Alex Sarr 2024-25 performance EKG.

sPPA (red line) = rolling full-season PPA calculated after each game

5G (gray line) = PPA from the previous five games calculated after each game

10G (blue line) = PPA from the previous 10 games calculated after each game

20G (pink line) = PPA from the previous 20 games calculated after each game

Despite the inefficiency and some other flaws in his game that must be addressed, Sarr’s overall performance at his age should be viewed as encouraging. He’ll have to put in the work, but at just 19 years old, he has a lot of runway to launch a great career.

I’ll close with this: I have a spreadsheet that estimates a player’s career trajectory based on his PPA performance at a given age and applying average improvement rates to his future years. Here’s what that forecaster says about Sarr:

  • Age 19 — 77 (this is Sarr’s PPA this season)
  • 20 — 85 (modest improvement and still a bit below average)
  • 21 — 123 (bigger jump in performance and better than average)
  • 22 — 160 (The leap — this is All-Star level performance)
  • 23 — 184 (This would be at least edging into All-NBA discussions)
  • 24 — 197 (Probably making an All-NBA team)
  • 25 — 203 (All-NBA first or second team; possible a fringe MVP candidate)
  • 26 — 205
  • 27 — 203
  • 28 — 199
  • 29 — 186
  • 30 — 171
  • 31 — 154
  • 32 — 136
  • 33 — 113

In other words, if Sarr follows a “normal” career arc (improving or declining by the historical average each season), he’d post 13 seasons that rated average or better, 9-10 All-Star level seasons, 7 years that would at least be in the All-NBA conversation, and perhaps 2-3 seasons at the level of a fringe MVP candidate.

This is not a guarantee, of course. But if he does the work, the Wizards may have emerged from the 2024-25 season with one of their building blocks of the future.

Source: https://www.bulletsforever.com/2025...e-wizards-found-a-building-block-in-alex-sarr
 
Back
Top