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[Washington Nationals]

The Washington Nationals have some interesting arbitration decisions

Every year the MLB Trade Rumors site releases projections for how much players will make in arbitration. They created a model that is quite accurate and it gives fans a good idea of what these guys will make and who could be non-tendered. Those projections came out yesterday and I want to go over them.

First, I just want to explain the arbitration system a bit. It is a complicated system, but I will try to make it as simple as possible. When a player enters the MLB, they spend the first three years of their career on a rookie scale contract, which is around $750,000. After those three years, the player will go to arbitration for another three years before they hit free agency. However, there are other complicating factors we will get into.

A very clean example of this is MacKenzie Gore. In 2022, 2023 and 2024, Gore was on the minimum salary. 2025 was Gore’s first year of arbitration. The first year of arbitration tends not to be very expensive before it rises each year. The player and the team have to come to an agreement on salary. For Gore, the two parties settled on $2,890,000. With Gore a year closer to free agency, he is projected to make $4.7 million this offseason.

If the player and team cannot reach an agreement, the two parties go to an arbitration court. The two parties have numbers and basically argue with each other in front of an independent arbiter. These can get messy sometimes because it is the team basically explaining why the player deserves less money.

Other complicating factors are the super 2 rule and service time manipulation. If a player is in between two and three years of service time when they first hit arbitration, they become arbitration eligible for four instead of three years. Teams sometimes strategically call players up at a certain date to gain that extra year of control. Overall, it is a messy and complicated process.

That brings us to the Nats. They have nine arbitration eligible players this offseason. First, they have to decide if they want to tender these players contracts. If they do, the player and team come with certain numbers and try to find a compromise. If they cannot do that, they go to the arbitration court which we discussed.

Here are the @mlbtraderumors estimates for the Nats’ upcoming arbitration eligible players.

The most notable figures are the larger ones (Gore, Abrams, García) though the Nats have very little on the books as is.https://t.co/FdvVyzNn2Z pic.twitter.com/62ENelap3q

— Spencer Nusbaum (@spencernusbaum_) October 6, 2025

The Nationals actually have a few non-tender candidates this offseason. Given their performances, Riley Adams and Jorge Alfaro will probably be on the chopping block despite their cheap prices. Drew Millas is still on his rookie deal, Keibert Ruiz is under contract and the Nats will probably sign a catcher in free agency. That leaves no room for those two.

Then there are the more interesting names. The one that is the most interesting debate is Luis Garcia Jr., the Nats long time second baseman. MLB Trade Rumors projects that Garcia will make $7 million in arbitration. That will be an interesting decision for Paul Toboni.

In 2025, Garcia was not worth that price tag. His 0.7 fWAR in 139 games is very underwhelming. Garcia regressed on both sides of the ball and that could put him on the chopping block.

However, it is not totally straightforward either. In 2024, Garcia posted 3 fWAR, which is well worth the $7 million price tag. When you look at his underlying offensive numbers, there is still a lot to like. Garcia was one of the unluckier hitters in all of baseball. His .348 xwOBA is actually a career high and better than what he produced in his breakout 2024 season.

A good offensive second baseman is worth more than that $7 million price tag. However, Garcia has been very inconsistent in his career. At just 25 years old, time is also on his side. This is one of the more interesting decisions the Nats make this offseason.

Until I saw these projections, Jake Irvin was not on my radar as a non-tender candidate. However, his $3.3 million projected price tag is high for what he provided last year. His 5.70 ERA was the highest of any qualified starter this season. Irvin lost over a tick of velocity and it really drained his effectiveness. While he threw 180 innings, which has value, those innings were ugly.

If Irvin is not in Paul Toboni’s plans, a non-tender is on the table. Irvin will be 29 years old entering next season, so there isn’t too much room for improvement. Sure, he can eat innings, but they are not good innings. Since the All-Star break of 2024, it has been really ugly for Irvin. I am surprised that he is a non-tender candidate, but given the price tag, it is possible.

Mason Thompson is another player who could be on the chopping block. He just did not look like an MLB caliber arm this year after coming back from Tommy John Surgery. Right now, he is just clogging up a 40 man roster spot. MacKenzie Gore, CJ Abrams, Cade Cavalli and Josiah Gray should all be tendered contracts. Gray is a major question mark, but his projected number is very cheap.

Arbitration season is a very interesting and complicated time on the baseball calendar. Paul Toboni has some big decisions on his hands with guys that could be non-tendered. The non-tender deadline is not until November 22nd, so he has some time to make decisions. It is something Nationals fans need to keep their eyes on.

Source: https://www.federalbaseball.com/mlb...ionals-have-interesting-arbitration-decisions

 

[Washington Nationals]

Nationals Grades: Brady House flourished in the minors but faced growing pains in the MLB

Brady House’s 2025 season was really two seasons in one. There is the Minor League portion of his season, where House re-established himself as a top 100 prospect and dominated Triple-A. Then there is the MLB portion of the season, where House mostly looked overmatched at the plate. This makes his season tough to grade, but that is exactly what we will try to do here.

Let’s start with the Minor League portion of the season because it is important to remember how good it was. House was coming off a rough introduction to AAA, where he posted a .655 OPS and struggled to get on base. This worrisome run caused many outlets to drop House out of their top 100 lists.

However, House rebounded in a big way to start this season. He put up big numbers in Rochester, hitting .304 and hammering 13 homers in 65 games. House also had an impressive .872 OPS. His 7.1% walk rate was not anything special, but it was much better than the 3% BB rate he posted last year in Rochester.

It was also very nice to see House showcase his power in the Minors. He has always had big time raw power, but it did not always show up consistently in games. In Rochester, he was tapping into that power. He hit some mammoth shots, including this 458 foot tank.

BRADY HOUSE

458 FEET. 112.4 MPH EV

OMG OMG OMG pic.twitter.com/0fi5ztrpfB

— Rochester Red Wings (@RocRedWings) May 26, 2025

As the Nats season began to fall apart in June, fans were clamoring for House. He did not have much more to prove in the Minors and the Nats had a big hole at third base. Eventually, in the middle of the team’s 11 game losing streak, House got the call.

He got called up only a day or two after Davey Martinez’s rant, so the move very much felt like damage control. Rizzo and Martinez knew they needed to do something to calm down the fanbase, and they threw the fans a bone by calling up House. That is not to say he did not deserve it, but the whole thing felt very panicked.

Maybe their original instinct to keep House in the minors was the right one, because his run in the MLB was tough. Honestly, it was very similar to his introduction to AAA last year, only worse. Everything we worried about with House’s lack of plate discipline came to light.

House walked at an absurdly low 2.9% clip while striking out 28.5% of the time. That is actually very comparable to the rates he posted in Rochester in 2024, where he walked 3% of the time and struck out 28.8% of his AB’s. Looking at that gives me hope that House can turn it around, which is needed because it was not easy to watch him hit.

In 73 games, House hit .234 with a .574 OPS. His on base percentage was shockingly low at just .252. However, the lack of walks was not unexpected if you had followed House’s career. It has just never been his game.

What did surprise me was his total lack of power. House only hit four homers in 261 at bats. Only 15 of his 61 hits went for extra bases. We wrote about how House needs to tap into his power if he is to have a chance as a hitter. When you don’t walk much and also strike out quite a bit, you need homers. House ran into a few hanging breaking balls, but that was it.

BRADY HOUSE ABSOLUTELY CRUSHES HIS FIRST CAREER HOME RUN!!! pic.twitter.com/RNuhyXN5ua

— optimistic nats fan (@optimistic5518) July 12, 2025

In fact, all four of his homers came on breaking balls. House did not do much damage on fastballs this season and struggled with high velocity. This will be something he needs to work on this offseason. Simply put, the offensive game has a long way to go before it is even passable. Luckily, he is only 22 and has shown offensive talent in the Minors.

Things were much more positive on the defensive side of the ball. House looks like a real natural at the hot corner. On a bad infield defense, House really stood out as a quality defender. He can make all the plays, has good range and a big arm.

At 90.6 MPH, this was Brady House's strongest throw of the season. His previous high was 85.6 MPH (2x). pic.twitter.com/fwFl2IlKmA

— Nationals Communications (@NationalsComms) July 22, 2025

The numbers back up the eye test too. House posted 2 outs above average at third base. The defense was really his saving grace and will give him a chance to work on his bat. If House can tap into his power and refine his approach just a little bit, there is a valuable player here.

House’s Minor League numbers this year led many to believe he was MLB ready with the bat. However, he got exposed and taught a lesson. The good thing about House is that he can take those lessons and learn from them. He did that last year after his rough stint in AAA.

House will have to do that again this offseason. He should be the guy at third base, at least to start the season. However, you can only put up a 56 wRC+ for so long and keep a big league role. House has the base line of a good power hitter who can run high batting averages on balls in play due to how hard he hits it. However, he is still very raw at the plate.

We need to see big strides at the plate from House in 2026. If we do not, his spot in this core could be in jeopardy. While House was a top 100 prospect, he was not as highly regarded as James Wood or Dylan Crews. That means his leash will be shorter.

2026 is a big year for House. To be blunt, he cannot look like he did at the plate next year. We need to see signs of life on the offensive side of the ball. However, if he can show that, he can be the Nats third baseman for years to come. Brady House has a lot of work to do though.

Season Grade: A in the Minors/D- in the MLB

Source: https://www.federalbaseball.com/was...ourished-in-minors-faced-growing-pains-in-mlb

 

[Washington Nationals]

Taking An Analytical Look At The Most Valuable Players In Washington Nationals Playoff History

In the 5 playoff trips in the Washington Nationals’ history, they’ve seen some postseason legends be born. From Stephen Strasburg pitching a flu game in the 2017 NLDS and winning the 2019 World Series MVP, to Juan Soto saving the day in the 2019 Wild Card Game and blasting 3 home runs in the World Series, to Michael A. Taylor almost singlehandedly dragging the Nationals to the NLCS in 2017, some Nationals have risen to the occasion more than others. Using Fangraphs’ RE24 statistic, which measures a player’s runs added/prevented compared to league average, let’s take a look at the most valuable players in Nationals’ playoff history.

Most Valuable Hitters

Juan Soto: 6.29 RE24

Unsurprisingly, the king of clutch himself, Juan Soto, tops the list of most valuable Nationals hitters in playoff history. Despite just one playoff run with the club, Soto’s list of valuable moments are endless, from the bases-clearing hit in the Wild Card game, to the game-tying solo shot off Clayton Kershaw in Game 5 of the NLDS, to the go ahead bomb off Justin Verlander in Game 6 of the World Series which led to an iconic bat drop before rounding first base. The only series of the 2019 playoff run where Soto was not clearly one of the most valuable hitters on the team was the NLCS, where the rest of the ballclub were able to carry the weight and more. Perhaps one day, when the Nationals are back to consistently playing October baseball, a hitter will take this crown away from Soto, but until then, he sits atop the “clutch” leaderboards.

Anthony Rendon: 6.18 RE24

Sitting just behind Soto is Anthony Rendon, whose heartbeat was as slow as they come in the 2019 playoffs, where he was the most clutch hitter in the postseason with an 8.21 RE24. Rendon’s list of signature moments in that 2019 playoff run is legendary, from his solo shot off Clayton Kershaw in Game 5 of the NLDS, which started the Nationals’ epic comeback, to his “ball don’t lie” 2-run shot in Game 6 of the World Series after a controversial out call on Trea Turner. Rendon’s playoff heroics don’t end there either, as he hit .368 in the 2014 NLDS and hit a home run in Game 2 of the 2017 NLDS off Jon Lester, which gave the Nats the lead. The playoff run preventing Rendon from easily topping this list is the 2016 NLDS, where Rendon went 3-10, hitting a 2-run shot in Game 3, but otherwise, leaving countless runners on base throughout the series, ultimately resulting in a RE24 of -3.10, worst of all Nats hitters that series.

Michael A. Taylor: 5.70 RE24

The third most valuable hitter in Nationals’ playoff history may also be the player who rose to the moment better than anyone, that player being Michael A. Taylor. Taylor’s 2017 NLDS heroics will never be forgotten in Nationals playoff history, from his game-sealing grand slam in Game 4 to force a Game 5, to his three-run shot early in Game 5, which, at the time, seemed like it might’ve been the break the Nationals needed to win their first playoff series. Overall, he was the 5th most valuable hitter in the 2017 postseason by RE24 in only 4 games, with all 4 names ahead of him being from the World Series clubs. He didn’t stop there either, as he was a vital bench bat for the Nats in their 2019 World Series run, blasting a home run in both the NLCS and World Series. Taylor recently announced his retirement, but his contributions to the Nats in October will never be forgotten.

Most Valuable Pitchers

Stephen Strasburg: 14.04 RE24

As expected, the 2019 World Series MVP, Stephen Strasburg, is the most valuable pitcher in Nationals playoff history, and perhaps one of the most “clutch” pitchers in playoff baseball history. In 8 starts and 1 relief appearance across 3 playoff runs, Stras was dominant, going 6-2 and posting a 1.46 ERA. In the 2017 NLDS, while battling the flu, he went out and threw 7 scoreless innings in an elimination game against the Cubs, forcing a winner-take-all Game 5. In the 2019 Wild Card game, he came in and shut down the Brewers’ lineup, keeping the Nationals in the game where they could pull off their improbable comeback. In the 2019 World Series, he dominated in his two starts, winning both and posting a 2.51 ERA en route to being named the World Series MVP. We will likely never again see a pitcher in Nats history as built for the moment as Stephen Strasburg, and I am forever grateful for his contributions.

Max Scherzer: 7.68 RE24

Scherzer was good, not great, in his first 2 playoff runs with the Nationals in 2016 and 2017, posting a 0.74 RE24 in the 2016 NLDS but a -0.69 RE24 in the 2017 NLDS. 2019, however, he was vintage Scherzer throughout, as he went 3-0 and posted a 2.40 ERA across 5 starts and 1 relief appearance, coming out to a 7.66 RE24 in total. He went a minimum of 5 innings in all of his starts, giving up more than 2 runs in only the Wild Card game. Perhaps his most impressive performance was in Game 7 of the World Series, where, after not being able to move his neck due to the pain just days before and missing his Game 5 start because of it, Scherzer went out and fired 5 innings of 2-run ball against a deadly Astros lineup, keeping the game within reach and passing the ball off to Patrick Corbin. Scherzer had somewhat of a reputation as a playoff dropper for years, but he put those talks to shame with his heroics throughout the 2019 postseason.

Sean Doolittle: 5.00 RE24

The third most valuable playoff pitcher and the most valuable playoff reliever in Nationals history is Sean Doolittle, acquired at the 2017 trade deadline and the key reliever for the Nats in 2 playoff runs. In 12 total playoff appearances for the Nats, Doolittle was nails out of the pen, posting a 1.74 ERA. He was lights out in the 2017 NLDS, posting 3 scoreless innings, resulting in a 1.51 RE24, but the majority of his contributions came in the 2019 playoff run, where he posted a 1.74 ERA across 10 1/3 innings pitched, leading to a 3.49 RE24. He shared the closer role with Daniel Hudson during that 2019 run, often coming in earlier than that when needed, and he did so masterfully, posting 3 scoreless innings and knotching 1 save in the World Series when the club needed him most. Doolittle’s time with the Nationals as a coach could be nearing its end as a new coaching staff takes over entering 2026, but Nats fans will forever be grateful for his contributions as a player, especially in the postseason.

Source: https://www.federalbaseball.com/gen...st-valuable-players-nationals-playoff-history

 

[Washington Nationals]

Paul Toboni begins the process of shaking up the Washington Nationals front office

It was a quiet first week for Paul Toboni as Nationals President of Baseball Operations. There had not been much noise when it came to the managerial search or what Toboni would do to overhaul the front office. However, he has sprung into action in his second week on the job.

Andrew Golden reported that the Nationals will be making “sweeping changes” to their front office. The first casualties of this overhaul are assistant GM Mark Scialabba and farm director Eddie Longosz. Both were let go today and had played key roles on the player development side.

The Nationals are making sweeping changes to their front office today. Among them: AGM Mark Scialabba and farm director Eddie Longosz have been informed that they aren't returning next season, sources tell @spencernusbaum_ and me.

Stay here for updates.

— Andrew Golden (@andrewcgolden) October 8, 2025

Longosz was the more well known of the two. He joined the organization in 2010 and had worked his way up the scouting department. Longosz took over as farm director in 2023. Given the lack of success on the player development side, these firings are not too surprising.

Both had been in the organization for over a decade and were Mike Rizzo guys. Paul Toboni is going to need to remake the front office in his image. To do that, he is going to have to bring in his own guys. The player development side is an easy place to start.

Toboni comes from a scouting and player development background, so this is the area where he will have the most conviction. It is also an area where the need for improvement is obvious. Mike Rizzo is out of a job because of the Nationals failure to draft and develop. Any new POBO would likely make these moves. I doubt this was much of a surprise for Longosz and Scialabba.

However, this appears to only be the start of the Toboni overhaul. A source told the great Barry Svrluga that this overhaul would be a bloodbath. You hate to see people lose their jobs, but this is exactly what a lot of Nationals fans wanted to hear.

One scout described it as a “blood bath.” https://t.co/5IMGgZBIvR

— Barry Svrluga (@barrysvrluga) October 8, 2025

Since the World Series in 2019, the Nats franchise has fallen behind the rest of the league. Baseball is an adapt or die business, and the Nats failed to adapt. Now the front office is going to face the consequences of not adapting.

Seeing this shakeup is exciting. Hopefully Toboni can bring in new voices that can help modernize the organization. Bringing the Nationals into the 2020’s is Toboni’s number one priority this offseason and this is a step towards accomplishing that.

However, not everyone will be gone. It was reported that Mike DeBartolo will be staying in the organization. There was no word on what role he will be filling, but he will stay around. After Mike Rizzo got fired in July, DeBartolo was the Interim GM. He also interviewed for the full time gig.

Mike DeBartolo, who served as interim Gm and was a candidate to lead baseball ops, will remain with the organization sources say. https://t.co/LViOqMEjDl

— Britt Ghiroli (@Britt_Ghiroli) October 8, 2025

This is going to be something to follow throughout the offseason. Big changes are coming to this organization, and they were needed. I am very interested to see who stays and who goes. The next thing on the agenda for Toboni is determining what happens on the coaching side. It has not officially been announced, but I would be shocked if we didn’t see massive changes there.

The offseason is underway and the stove is heating up for the Washington Nationals. Paul Toboni has a big job ahead of him and big calls to make. He made the first of those big calls today.

Source: https://www.federalbaseball.com/was...-shaking-up-washington-nationals-front-office

 

[Washington Nationals]

Nationals Grades: James Wood showed his brilliance, but also his flaws

It is sometimes easy to forget, but 2025 was James Wood’s first full season as a big leaguer. He played most of the season as a 22 year old. Despite his tender age, Wood was the focal point of the Nationals offense. Often that was for the best, but when he struggled, it stuck out like a sore thumb.

James Wood only came up in July of 2024. After a strong half season, Wood was expected to take the next step in 2025. If you step back and look at the big picture, he did just that. For the season, Wood hit .256 with an .825 OPS. He slugged 31 home runs and drove in 94 runs. Those are really strong numbers for a young player in a lineup without much protection. Wood also posted 3.3 fWAR and 3.7 bWAR.

The thing that stands out the most about James Wood is his raw power. He hits some freakish home runs, especially to the opposite field. The opposite field homer became a Wood trademark. When you look at his spray chart, so many of his homers are to left field or left-center.

james wood is actually a perfect name for a slugger. And I think we all know why pic.twitter.com/m2NP773ZNj

— Washington Nationals (@Nationals) August 21, 2025

It feels so long ago now, but James Wood’s first half was otherworldly. On July 4th, James Wood was hitting .294 with a .958 OPS. He had already hit 23 home runs by Independence Day. At that point in the season, Wood was one of the best hitters in all of baseball. The 22 year old was an utter phenom and looked like one of the future faces of baseball. When discussing his season, you have to keep this in mind. Yes, he struggled in the second half, and we will get into that, but we cannot forget about his first half either.

My favorite moment of Wood’s season came early in April, when the Nats were playing the Marlins. It actually came from the Marlins broadcast. Wood hit a line drive missile over the fence. The home run was so impressive that the Marlins announcers were audibly shocked and could not believe what they had seen.

The Marlins broadcast was absolutely stunned by James Wood's insane opposite field home run last night pic.twitter.com/Ekd1n081Yd

— federalbaseball (@federalbaseball) April 12, 2025

Those are the kinds of moments James Wood can bring. He can do things that very few baseball players can do. Wood is just a freak athlete at 6’7 234 pounds. He hits the ball so hard and can do truly mesmerizing things on a baseball field.

His truly elite exit velocities and hard hit rates give him the potential to be one of the best hitters in baseball. The truly elite hitters, like Aaron Judge, Shohei Ohtani and even Kyle Schwarber are the guys who hit the ball the hardest. Wood hits the ball like that and we saw him perform like one of the best hitters in the sport in the first half.

However, Wood ran into some pretty big problems in the second half. Simply put, he had a hard time hitting the ball at all. Strikeouts are always going to be a part of Wood’s game. Most long levered guys have big strikeout numbers and Wood is no different.

Even in his special first half, where he posted a .915 OPS, Wood struck out 27.6% of the time. May was his best month of the season, and he struck out 27% of the time then. So we know that Wood can succeed even with high strikeout numbers.

However, things got out of control in the second half. After the All-Star break, Wood struck out 39% of the time. Those are Joey Gallo kinds of numbers and are not going to allow him to be at his best. Even in August and September, where he had improved from his truly miserable July, Wood’s strikeout rates were deep into the 30’s and ate away at his production.

This second half strikeout frenzy had Wood chasing the wrong kind of history. He was closing in on the all time single season strikeout record, which Mark Reynolds set back in 2009. In the end, Wood finished with 221 strikeouts, but the punch outs were still very alarming.

James Wood struck out 221 times this season.

Only players with more in a season:
Adam Dunn – 222 (2012)
Mark Reynolds – 223 (2009) pic.twitter.com/Fy6W9W4OqF

— Underdog MLB (@UnderdogMLB) September 28, 2025

Those strikeout problems are why Wood posted a .689 OPS in the second half. All the swing and miss also cut into his power, with the big slugger only hitting 7 second half homers. Wood hits the ball on the ground more than most sluggers, so when he is striking out a ton, he simply is not hitting it in the air enough to homer consistently.

For the season, James Wood struck out 32.1% of the time. Getting that number down will be his number one priority this offseason. He does not have to be some contact hitter, just get that number back around 27%. Wood has proven he can be an elite hitter while striking out 27% of the time.

Beyond his offensive game, Wood’s defense is still shaky, but it has improved. He is a negative defender, posting -7 outs above average. Last year, in half the games, he had -5 OAA. So on a rate basis, his defense improved. There were actually times in the middle of the season where I thought Wood played good defense.

However, as we got into the second half, his defense tailed off with his bat. It just seemed like he wore down in the second half. The bat was not the same, the defense fell off and his sprint speed regressed. I wonder if he was nursing an injury or just feeling the effects of playing a 162 game season for the first time.

Looking at the season in its entirety, this was a successful year for James Wood. If you told me before the season that Wood would hit 31 homers and have an .825 OPS, I would have taken that for sure. He became the first National to hit 30 homers since 2019.

However, that second half inevitably leaves a bad taste in your mouth. Wood did have a good final couple weeks to leave fans with something positive, but there were a lot of ugly at bats in the second half. His lethargic demeanor can also be frustrating at times.

However, the whole package is still very strong. Wood had a good season while having so many areas of growth remaining in his game. His ceiling is still so high, but he has more to work on than we thought after his electric first half. I am excited to watch the James Wood experience for years to come, even if it can be frustrating at times.

Season Grade: A-/B+

Source: https://www.federalbaseball.com/general/86769/nationals-grades-james-wood-showed-brilliance-flaws