Washington Nationals
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The Washington Nationals have some interesting arbitration decisions
Source: https://www.federalbaseball.com/mlb...ionals-have-interesting-arbitration-decisions
Every year the MLB Trade Rumors site releases projections for how much players will make in arbitration. They created a model that is quite accurate and it gives fans a good idea of what these guys will make and who could be non-tendered. Those projections came out yesterday and I want to go over them.
First, I just want to explain the arbitration system a bit. It is a complicated system, but I will try to make it as simple as possible. When a player enters the MLB, they spend the first three years of their career on a rookie scale contract, which is around $750,000. After those three years, the player will go to arbitration for another three years before they hit free agency. However, there are other complicating factors we will get into.
A very clean example of this is MacKenzie Gore. In 2022, 2023 and 2024, Gore was on the minimum salary. 2025 was Gore’s first year of arbitration. The first year of arbitration tends not to be very expensive before it rises each year. The player and the team have to come to an agreement on salary. For Gore, the two parties settled on $2,890,000. With Gore a year closer to free agency, he is projected to make $4.7 million this offseason.
If the player and team cannot reach an agreement, the two parties go to an arbitration court. The two parties have numbers and basically argue with each other in front of an independent arbiter. These can get messy sometimes because it is the team basically explaining why the player deserves less money.
Other complicating factors are the super 2 rule and service time manipulation. If a player is in between two and three years of service time when they first hit arbitration, they become arbitration eligible for four instead of three years. Teams sometimes strategically call players up at a certain date to gain that extra year of control. Overall, it is a messy and complicated process.
That brings us to the Nats. They have nine arbitration eligible players this offseason. First, they have to decide if they want to tender these players contracts. If they do, the player and team come with certain numbers and try to find a compromise. If they cannot do that, they go to the arbitration court which we discussed.
The Nationals actually have a few non-tender candidates this offseason. Given their performances, Riley Adams and Jorge Alfaro will probably be on the chopping block despite their cheap prices. Drew Millas is still on his rookie deal, Keibert Ruiz is under contract and the Nats will probably sign a catcher in free agency. That leaves no room for those two.
Then there are the more interesting names. The one that is the most interesting debate is Luis Garcia Jr., the Nats long time second baseman. MLB Trade Rumors projects that Garcia will make $7 million in arbitration. That will be an interesting decision for Paul Toboni.
In 2025, Garcia was not worth that price tag. His 0.7 fWAR in 139 games is very underwhelming. Garcia regressed on both sides of the ball and that could put him on the chopping block.
However, it is not totally straightforward either. In 2024, Garcia posted 3 fWAR, which is well worth the $7 million price tag. When you look at his underlying offensive numbers, there is still a lot to like. Garcia was one of the unluckier hitters in all of baseball. His .348 xwOBA is actually a career high and better than what he produced in his breakout 2024 season.
A good offensive second baseman is worth more than that $7 million price tag. However, Garcia has been very inconsistent in his career. At just 25 years old, time is also on his side. This is one of the more interesting decisions the Nats make this offseason.
Until I saw these projections, Jake Irvin was not on my radar as a non-tender candidate. However, his $3.3 million projected price tag is high for what he provided last year. His 5.70 ERA was the highest of any qualified starter this season. Irvin lost over a tick of velocity and it really drained his effectiveness. While he threw 180 innings, which has value, those innings were ugly.
If Irvin is not in Paul Toboni’s plans, a non-tender is on the table. Irvin will be 29 years old entering next season, so there isn’t too much room for improvement. Sure, he can eat innings, but they are not good innings. Since the All-Star break of 2024, it has been really ugly for Irvin. I am surprised that he is a non-tender candidate, but given the price tag, it is possible.
Mason Thompson is another player who could be on the chopping block. He just did not look like an MLB caliber arm this year after coming back from Tommy John Surgery. Right now, he is just clogging up a 40 man roster spot. MacKenzie Gore, CJ Abrams, Cade Cavalli and Josiah Gray should all be tendered contracts. Gray is a major question mark, but his projected number is very cheap.
Arbitration season is a very interesting and complicated time on the baseball calendar. Paul Toboni has some big decisions on his hands with guys that could be non-tendered. The non-tender deadline is not until November 22nd, so he has some time to make decisions. It is something Nationals fans need to keep their eyes on.
Source: https://www.federalbaseball.com/mlb...ionals-have-interesting-arbitration-decisions
