Washington Wizards GM Will Dawkins and President Michael Winger | Photo by Kenny Giarla/NBAE via Getty Images
The Wizards’ NBA Draft Lottery drop is disappointing but far from a disaster.
The Washington Wizards dropping to sixth in the 2025
NBA Draft lottery wasn’t the outcome fans were hoping for. With the second-best odds, dreams of landing Cooper Flagg or even Dylan Harper were real. So yeah, the immediate sting was understandable.
But the reactions that followed — full-on despair, talk of curses, existential dread — have felt downright histrionic.
Wizards fans carry scars from the decades of #SoWizards ineptitude that trained them to see the world with a jaundiced eye. But this isn’t the same old Wizards. The arrival of Michael Winger, Will Dawkins, and their management team finally marked a new era with a true rebuild — one rooted in competitive ambition, patience, and discipline.
The Odds Were the Odds
The outrage over landing the sixth pick ignores the math. The Wizards had just a 14% chance at the No. 1 pick, and about a 1-in-4 shot at the top two. In contrast, they had a 47% chance of landing either five or six — essentially coin flip probability. Sixth specifically was their second-most likely outcome (20%), behind only fifth (27%).
It’s a bummer, it’s not some cosmic injustice. It’s just how the NBA lottery works as it’s currently structured. If you’re playing the odds, you prepare for this and you build anyway.
Draft Position Isn’t Destiny
Fans treat the top of the draft like it’s the only place to find stars, but the current
NBA playoffs paint a far different picture. Take a look at the final eight teams in these playoffs. Among the 24 top-three players on those rosters, only seven were drafted in the top five: Jason Tatum, Jaylen Brown, Anthony Edwards, Karl-Anthony Towns, Chet Holmgren, Aaron Gordon, and Evan Mobley. And only two of those teams (Boston and Minnesota) have a clear number one option who was a top-five pick.
Now look at these players likely to make All-NBA this year: Nikola Jokic (41st), Giannis Antentokounpo (15th), Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (11th), Donovan Mitchell (13th), Jalen Brunson (33rd), Alperen Şengün (16th), Jalen Williams (12th).
The lesson? Star talent can be found in every tier of the draft if you know how to look — and the Wizards leadership has shown that they do.
Let’s not pretend anyone knows exactly how this draft will shake out. People treat draft night like a science, but history — recent and distant — tells us better. “Sure things” miss all the time. It wasn’t long ago that Scoot Henderson was seen as a can’t-miss prospect, yet he’s still working to carve out a role in Portland. The draft is full of surprises — in both directions.
This Front Office Plays the Long Game
Patience is part of the plan. Dawkins has been clear: this rebuild is just getting started. Look at the ages of the core young guys — Bilal Coulibaly, Alex Sarr, Bub Carrington, Kyshawn George, Alex Sarr, and AJ Johnson. They’re all early in their development curves. The front office isn’t pretending they’re one move away. They’re building with intent.
That might not satisfy the hunger for instant relevance, but considering how long the Wizards languished in the NBA’s (lower) middle class, it’s refreshing to see a group committed to doing this the right way. No shortcuts, no chasing mediocrity just to “contend for the play-in.” This group is fiercely competitive but disciplined.
They’ve also earned some trust. In the last two drafts, they’ve shown a clear strategy and the conviction to go get their guys — trading up for Coulibaly and George, finding value throughout the board, and setting themselves up with another three picks this year (Nos. 6, 18, and 40). It’s not just about swinging for stars. It’s about making smart bets — as many as possible — and stacking talent.
Opportunity in a Summer of Movement
The lottery results, combined with Tatum’s Achilles injury and growing speculation about Antetokounmpo’s future in Milwaukee, are setting the stage for a chaotic summer of player movement. This is where the Wizards’ current position is quietly powerful.
With decent financial flexibility, the expiring contracts of useful veterans (Khris Middleton, Marcus Smart), and an unguaranteed deal in Richaun Holmes, Washington is again in position to extract value from other teams’ needs. These
are the same strategies the team has used to build their asset base and they’ve shown they’re good at it. Repeatedly.
2026 > 2025?
While dreams of Flagg or Harper may have been dashed, the top of the 2026 draft is projected to be as strong, if not stronger, than this year’s class. Add in the fact that they’re at little risk of conveying their top-eight protected 2026 first-rounder to the
Knicks, and the picture gets even clearer. The Wizards are going to lose a lot next season and that’s just fine.
Depth Matters — Now and Later
Everyone focuses on stars, and understandably so. But depth is how teams survive an NBA season, and it’s how they put themselves in position to consolidate talent when the right star becomes available and still have a strong enough roster after the big deal. Ask the 2008
Celtics, the Beautiful Game Spurs, the 2019 Clippers, the 2019-20 Nets, etc. about the importance of real roster depth.
You build so that when the moment arrives — whether in the form of a disgruntled All-Star or a team blowing it up — you’ve got enough on the roster to make a trade without gutting your identity. That’s what good front offices do. That’s what this group is building toward.
The lottery didn’t go the Wizards’ way. But if you’re focused on one bounce of a ping-pong ball, you’re missing the bigger picture.
This team has a plan. The picks, the patience, the flexibility — it’s all pointing toward something more sustainable than Washington fans have seen in a long time.
So, take a breath. The sky isn’t falling. It might just be clearing.
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