Wizards Waste Good Shooting, Lose By Giving Up 28 Offensive Rebounds

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For much of the fourth quarter, it looked like the Wizards were going to secure their second win of the season. When they were up 10 with five minutes on the clock, I thought of what I thought could be a clever lead to this article, which may now never see the light of day because they squandered that lead and lost.

It was only a maybe 90 seconds of game clock after I thought of that lead that I actually thought the Wizards would lose. They were still up seven with under four minutes, and I wondered aloud to the empty room, “Why are they dribbling down the shot clock? They’re only up seven.”

Naturally, this was being done by the savvy veterans, CJ McCollum and Khris Middleton, who are on hand to teach The Right Way. Except, you can’t run a Riggo Drill in basketball because of the shot clock. Basically, wasting time with a small lead and three-plus minutes on the clock means you’re likely to get a worse shot, which lowers your odds of scoring, which increases the other team’s chances of coming back.

And that’s what happened.

To be fair, while I think the late-game strategy was suboptimal, that wasn’t what sent the game to overtime and cost Washington the win. The Wizards were done in by giving up 28 offensive rebounds (not a typo) — the second time in three games an opponent had an offensive rebounding percentage above 40% (Detroit’s was 44.4% — again, not a typo).

The Pistons also won the turnover battle (14 turnovers to Washington’s 20) and made 10 more free throws because of Washington’s excessive hacking and swiping. Kyshawn George, Alex Sarr, and Bub Carrington each committed five fouls. Middleton had four. McCollum and Cam Whitmore had three each.

Detroit’s significant edge in three of the four factors enabled them to win despite the Wizards posting an effective field goal percentage of 60.5% compared to the Pistons’ atrocious 46.9%. The team that shoots better wins about 80% of the time in the NBA. Not last night. Not when you give up 28 offensive rebounds, commit lots of fouls, and burn 20 possessions on turnovers.

Thoughts & Observations​

  • The Peacock broadcast was excellent. I liked the analysts (Robbie Hummel and Austin Rivers) situated on each team’s bench, which gave them insights into what coaches were saying and strategizing. Good stuff, that I hope every team’s broadcast copies. This was also a great use of ex-players.
  • At the 4:27 mark of the fourth quarter, Detroit’s Cade Cunningham attacked in transition and got knocked to the floor by Cam Whitmore, who then earned a (deserved) technical foul by standing over him and seeming to gloat. Refs reviewed for a potential flagrant, which they did not call — they left it as a hard but common foul. And then, Brian Keefe came in off the top rope and challenged the foul call on Whitmore. And while the refs upheld their foul call, I think Keefe and the Wizards coaching staff had a point. Whitmore got ball. Yes, some off hand, but not a lot. And in theory, they could’ve even called Cunningham for trying to use the off hand to ward off the block attempt. In the end, it goes into history as a hard foul. I don’t love that Cunningham fell so hard, but I do like the effort and athleticism from Whitmore, and Keefe backing up his player in that situation.
  • McCollum’s slow start is gone. He lit up the Pistons en route to 42 points on just 25 shots.
  • Cunningham set a Pistons record with 45 field goal attempts. He set the record in regulation and extended it in overtime. He finished the game with a triple-double — 46 points, 12 rebounds, 11 assists. His shooting stunk (just 14-45), but his five offensive rebounds, and assists without turnovers boosted his offensive rating to a decent (but still below average) 110 on a 43.5% usage rate.
  • Daniss Jenkins, who’s on a two-way contract with the Pistons, entered the game with a career high of nine points. He went home with a new high: 24 points, including a fourth-quarter buzzer-beater to send the game into overtime. The diminutive Jenkins (listed a 6-3, but c’mon) added 8 rebounds, 3 assists, 4 steals, and what seemed like every hustle play. Kudos.

Four Factors​


Below are the four factors that decide wins and losses in basketball — shooting (efg), rebounding (offensive rebounds), ball handling (turnovers), fouling (free throws made).

The four factors are measured by:

  • eFG% (effective field goal percentage, which accounts for the three-point shot)
  • OREB% (offensive rebound percentage)
  • TOV% (turnover percentage — turnovers divided by possessions)
  • FTM/FGA (free throws made divided by field goal attempts)

In the table below are the four factors using the percentages and rates traditionally presented.

FOUR FACTORSWIZARDSPISTONSLGAVG
eFG%60.5%46.9%54.3%
OREB%23.9%44.4%26.4%
TOV%17.5%12.3%13.3%
FTM/FGA0.2110.2630.228
PACE103100.6
ORTG131132115.3

Stats & Metrics​


PPA is my overall production metric, which credits players for things they do that help a team win (scoring, rebounding, playmaking, defending) and dings them for things that hurt (missed shots, turnovers, bad defense, fouls).

PPA is a per possession metric designed for larger data sets. In small sample sizes, the numbers can get weird. In PPA, 100 is average, higher is better and replacement level is 45. For a single game, replacement level isn’t much use, and I reiterate the caution about small samples sometimes producing weird results.

POSS is the number of possessions each player was on the floor in this game.

ORTG = offensive rating, which is points produced per individual possessions x 100. League average so far this season is 115.1. Points produced is not the same as points scored. It includes the value of assists and offensive rebounds, as well as sharing credit when receiving an assist.

USG = offensive usage rate. Average is 20%.

ORTG and USG are versions of stats created by former Wizards assistant coach Dean Oliver and modified by me. ORTG is an efficiency measure that accounts for the value of shooting, offensive rebounds, assists and turnovers. USG includes shooting from the floor and free throw line, offensive rebounds, assists and turnovers.

+PTS = “Plus Points” is a measure of the points gained or lost by each player based on their efficiency in this game compared to league average efficiency on the same number of possessions. A player with an offensive rating (points produced per possession x 100) of 100 who uses 20 possessions would produce 20 points. If the league average efficiency is 114, the league — on average — would produced 22.8 points in the same 20 possessions. So, the player in this hypothetical would have a +PTS score of -2.8.

Players are sorted by total production in the game.

WIZARDSMINPOSSORTGUSG+PTSPPA+/-
CJ McCollum439213131.7%4.71729
Corey Kispert23492657.2%5.32239
Cam Whitmore296313720.9%2.91073
Tre Johnson235013615.6%1.6121-1
Marvin Bagley III163410224.1%-1.11633
Bub Carrington357512513.2%1.062-11
Alex Sarr37808720.2%-4.543-4
Kyshawn George296311422.6%-0.2513
Khris Middleton26576818.7%-5.1-8-10
Justin Champagnie36014.6%-1.0-239-11
Malaki Branham010.0%0.000
PISTONSMINPOSSORTGUSG+PTSPPA+/-
Daniss Jenkins347314220.8%4.12228
Cade Cunningham459611043.5%-2.115810
Jalen Duren408612120.4%1.097-6
Javonte Green388211013.8%-0.610010
Duncan Robinson38821369.4%1.6831
Chaz Lanier27571479.6%1.7117-2
Paul Reed132916117.0%2.32078
Bobi Klintman71510228.7%-0.650-5
Ronald Holland II24518511.3%-1.8-38-14

Source: https://www.bulletsforever.com/wash...oting-lose-by-giving-up-28-offensive-rebounds
 
Wizards at Rockets preview: Washington takes on surging Houston squad

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The Washington Wizards take on another contender Wednesday night when they pay a visit to the Houston Rockets at Toyota Center.

Game info​


When: Wednesday, Nov. 12th at 8:00 p.m. ET

Where: Toyota Center, Houston, Texas

How to watch: Monumental Sports Network, League Pass

Injuries: For the Wizards, Bilal Coulibaly (calf) is out. For the Rockets, Fred VanVleet (torn ACL) and Dorian Finney-Smith (ankle) are both out.

What to watch for​


The Wizards are fresh off their second huge meltdown of the season when they let a winnable game slip away Monday against the No. 1 seed Detroit Pistons. Wednesday’s contest against the Rockets gives the team a shot at redemption against yet another top-ranked foe.

Washington is looking to avoid a 10-game losing streak just 12 games into the 2025-26 campaign. The Wiz will need to upset a red-hot Rockets team to do it. Houston has won six of its last seven games and seems to be fully in sync with major offseason acquisition Kevin Durant.

Kyshawn George and Alex Sarr will get to test their defensive mettle when they match up with Durant and Alperen Sengun, respectively.

Source: https://www.bulletsforever.com/wash...iew-washington-takes-on-surging-houston-squad
 
Wizards vs. Pistons final score: Wizards drop in overtime, 137-135

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The Washington Wizards dropped an overtime thriller to the Detroit Pistons tonight, 137-135. CJ McCollum missed a floater at the buzzer to hand Washington its ninth straight loss.

McCollum went off for 42 points in what was surely a tryout for the 34-year-old’s next team. For the Pistons, Cade Cunningham continued his All-NBA First Team campaign by posting 48 points, 11 assists and 12 rebounds.

The Wizards have had arguably the toughest schedule in the NBA so far this season, as they have only played playoff-hopeful teams (save for a drubbing against the lowly Charlotte Hornets). Their only win came against the Dallas Mavericks, and they’d dropped eight strait leading up to this game.

Heading into tonight’s game, rookie Tre Johnson was averaging a cool 12.1 points per game, seventh among all rookies, in 26 minutes per game. Alex Sarr, the Wizards’ most important player, is up to 19 points per game, but he is still not a good rebounder at 7.7 boards per game.

Of all of last season’s rookies, Kyshawn George has taken the biggest second-year leap, nearly doubling his scoring average from 8.7 to 16 points per game. He is also pulling down 6.2 boards per game, the second most on the team behind Sarr.

The 1-10 Wizards head to Houston next to face off against Kevin Durant and the Rockets.

Source: https://www.bulletsforever.com/wash...ington-wizards-detroit-pistons-nba-game-recap
 
Wizards at Rockets: Washington blasted by Houston, 135-112

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The Washington Wizards were launched into space and did not survive on Wednesday against the Houston Rockets in a 135-112 contest at Toyota Center. The game felt like a harsh reminder of how far Washington has to go to become a competitive team, let alone a contender like Houston.

In the first quarter, Kyshawn George got an education on what it takes to defend a scorer like Kevin Durant. The former NBA MVP went off for 16 points, with several jumpers right over the top of George’s outstretched arms. George led the Wizards in scoring with seven points in the opening period as his team trailed 40-29.

The game unraveled quickly in the second quarter as Houston pounded Washington on the glass for a 38-22 rebounding edge before halftime. The Rockets made good use of those extra possessions, out-assisting the Wizards 20-12 to take an 81-54 lead at the break. Alex Sarr tallied 12 points and six rebounds through two quarters.

Washington showed some signs of life in the third. Sarr and Tre Johnson combined to score 14 of the team’s first 16 points of the half. George dished out five of his nine assists in the period as the Wizards outscored the Rockets 33-22 to make things a tiny bit interesting.

Double-double for Big Eiffel 🔥

📊 20 PTS | 10 REB pic.twitter.com/e7LlgwEldp

— Washington Wizards (@WashWizards) November 13, 2025

Corey Kispert opened the final period with a three-pointer to cut the gap to 13. But that was as close as the Wizards would get, as the team suffered their 10th loss in a row.

Sarr had another productive outing against a rugged Rockets frontline. He led Washington with 25 points and 11 rebounds on 10-of-15 shooting from the floor. George had an all-around game with 16 points, seven rebounds, and nine assists. Johnson scored 12 points on four three-pointers in his fourth career start.

The Wizards may have their best shot at ending their losing streak on Sunday when they host the Brooklyn Nets on four days of rest.

Source: https://www.bulletsforever.com/wash...rockets-washington-blasted-by-houston-135-112
 
Wizards at Rockets: Breaking down last night’s loss

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The Washington Wizards lost to the Houston Rockets last night, 135-112. Kevin Broom is out today, so I will fill in with his stats-based analysis. I won’t be as great as he is. But I’ll do my best.

First, let’s look at the Four Factors.

TeamPaceeFG%TOV%ORB%FT/FGAORtg
Wizards96.60.53810.726.70.141116
Rockets96.60.6210.244.40.167139.8

The Good​

  • Strong individual showing by Alex Sarr: He logged 25 points on 10-of-15 shooting, grabbed 11 rebounds, dished four assists and also had a block. Sarr also made 2-of-3 three pointers.
  • Kyshawn George almost has a double-double: The sophomore scored 16 points and dished 9 assists.
  • Tre Johnson continues to show promise: The rookies scored 12 points and got the start.
  • Marvin Bagley III was efficient: He was 4-of-4 from the field, scored 9 points off the bench.
  • Wizards held their own in fast-break chances: The Wizards scored 15 of them, more than the Rockets. You want to see young teams do well in this area.

The Bad​

  • Rebounding deficit: The Wizards had 37 total rebounds vs the Rockets’ 53. Yikes!
  • Shooting woes overall: Wizards shot 45.7 percent from the field and 39.5 percent from three. That’s not bad overall. But the Rockets shot 53.1 percent from the field and 48.8 percent from three.
  • Deficit in the first half: They trailed 81-54 at half; gave up 42.6 percent shooting to Houston, who hit 55.6 percent shooting in that half. The scoring deficit was poor. But it’s even worse when you consider that the Wizards were doubled up on rebounds. Washington had 15, Houston had 33.

Washington will have some time off before hosting the Brooklyn Nets on Sunday. Hopefully, the rebounding deficit won’t be so drastic next time.

Source: https://www.bulletsforever.com/wash...ards-houston-rockets-nba-statistical-analysis
 
What are the main issues behind the WNBA CBA negotiations?

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As you are aware, the WNBA and WNBPA (the players union) is still negotiating the terms of a new Collective Bargaining Agreement. If there is one piece of good news from over the past couple weeks, it’s that there is no work stoppage. WNBA team owners haven’t locked out the players, a situation that until very recently seemed to be the more likely bet. And the players didn’t go on strike. Therefore, that’s good news. To be exact, there is a 30 day extension on CBA talks, and the 2026 WNBA Draft Lottery will be on Nov. 23.

Still, we wanted to give you a couple links to some resources on what is at stake with the WNBA and the WNBPA. They are:

  • A WInsidr article by Christian Conway on the legal consequences and what the issue the players want negotiated most: revenue sharing. Currently, WNBA players are given a set amount of money with set increases, unlike the NBA where the NBPA, the NBA players union get a share of basketball related income. It’s unclear how much revenue the players are receiving. But this much is clear. The players want a share of the revenue, not just salary increases.
  • ESPN has a strong piece here on the various player groups ranging from rookies to veterans to those who have ownership interests in winter leagues to those who play and make money in overseas basketball leagues and what they may be looking for with the next CBA.

I would say that either way, WNBA players will receive much larger salaries and benefits given the league’s new media deal which kicks in next year. However, the degree of these increases and the revenue share split will likely be the sticking points on just how well received the next CBA will be by the players.

Source: https://www.bulletsforever.com/mystics/66089/wnba-cba-november-2025-update
 
John Wall reacts to whether his Wizards jersey number would be retired

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John Wall hasn’t been retired from the NBA for very long. But as the Washington Wizards’ career leader in assists and the centerpiece behind Washington’s exciting playoff runs in the 2010s, there is speculation about whether his No. 2 jersey should be retired.

On FanDuel TV’s Run It Back show, which is hosted by Michelle Beadle and former NBA players Chandler Parson, Lou Williams and DeMarcus Cousins, Beadle speculated to Wall himself about whether the five-time NBA All-Star would like to see his number retired. Wall acknowledged that he would like to see it happen.

. @JohnWall "would love" to see his jersey in the Wizards' rafters one day 👀🗣️💯

"My play and what I did for the community speaks for itself." – JW

"We in the streets if they don't do it in 2 years." – @TeamLou23@MichelleDBeadle | @boogiecousins pic.twitter.com/WtCLGw3TiR

— Run It Back (@RunItBackFDTV) November 13, 2025

Williams also agreed, saying that “we in the streets if they don’t do it in two years” as a sign of support.

Currently, the Wizards’ retired numbers are No. 10 for Earl Monroe, No. 11 for Elvin Hayes, No. 25 for Gus Johnson, No. 41 for Wes Unseld and No. 45 for Phil Chenier. The NBA retired No. 6 for Bill Russell across all league teams.

Do you think Wall’s number should be retired? Let us know in the comments below.

Source: https://www.bulletsforever.com/qual...izards-number-retirement-possibility-reaction
 
2026 NBA Draft Preview: Neoklis Avdalas

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Hello Bullets Forever readers!

My name is David Korn and I am so excited to join this amazing site to help cover the Washington Wizards. A bit about me: I graduated from George Washington in 2023 and have spent the last six years living in Washington, DC covering college basketball. I broadcasted GW Men’s and Women’s Basketball games on the radio and have written about college basketball for a number of different outlets. I also host the GW Basketball Insiders show on friend of the site Matt Modderno’s Department of Hoops network.

With where the Wizards are as an organization, it can feel like looking ahead at the NBA Draft is as, if not more important a part of the season than the actual basketball being played. The Wizards have unfortunately not had the best of luck in the lottery, especially this past season when they fell to the sixth pick despite being one of three teams with the best odds to land the first overall selection. While Tre Johnson has looked like a solid selection so far, it is easy to imagine a future where the Wizards ended up with one of the top three picks, Cooper Flagg, Dylan Harper or V.J. Edgecome, who are all looking like future superstars.

This year, there are three can’t-miss freshman draft prospects who are currently projected to go in the first three picks of the 2026 NBA Draft: Kansas guard Darryn Peterson, BYU wing AJ Dybantsa and Duke forward Cameron Boozer. Throughout the season and up until the draft, I will be keeping you updated on the latest with Peterson, Dybantsa and Boozer while also highlighting some more under-the-radar prospects who the Wizards could target later in the first round with their Thunder/Clippers/Rockets first round pick or via trade.

The first player I am highlighting: Neoklis Avdalas.

Neoklis Avdalas, 6’9” freshman guard from Virginia Tech

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Neoklis Avdalas burst into the national spotlight this past weekend with a 33 point, six assist and five rebound performance for the ages in an overtime victory over Providence on Saturday at the Hall of Fame Tip-Off at Mohegan Sun.

Virginia Tech’s Neoklis Avdalas is one bad dude

Today vs Providence he was unreal

33 points
6 rebounds
6 assists
13-23 FG
5-8 3P
2-4 FT

The 6’9 PG out of the Greece put together the very best freshman performance we’ve seen this season

Incredible performance pic.twitter.com/3VmrhuhFAH

— Arman Jovic (@PDTScouting) November 9, 2025

The 6’9” ballhandler from Greece, who will turn 20 in February, arrived at Virginia Tech for his freshman season with high expectations and has already flashed superstar potential. Like so many of his European peers in college basketball this season, Avdalas has brought a wealth of professional and international experience with him. He spent two years in Greece’s top league, playing for AS Karditsas in 2023-24 and Peristeri BC in 2024-25. With Peristeri BC last season playing against grown men, Avdalas averaged 8.8 points and 19.2 minutes per game while shooting 40.7% from three.

After receiving an invite to the NBA Draft combine last season and kicking the tires on declaring for the 2025 draft, Avdalas decided that his best course of action would be to go the collegiate route before trying again in 2026. Through three games, that is looking like the absolute right decision. His early-season performance against Providence has people within the industry buzzing about his potential. As a tall, European lead guard who can score at all three levels, one particular name keeps coming up when discussing NBA comparisons for Avdalas–Luka Doncic.

🇬🇷👀 Neoklis Avdalas is Greece’s next big thing and his game reminds us of someone… pic.twitter.com/18IrsAAmEr

— Eurohoops (@Eurohoopsnet) November 9, 2025

Watching his tape against Providence, it is easy to see why people are making those comparisons. The way Avdalas can handle the ball at his size, get to his spots and create his own shot at all three levels and change pace so fluidly is all very Doncic-esque. While the Doncic comps may be a bit premature and optimistic, a more realistic one is Brooklyn Nets rookie and Russian native Egor Demin, who was drafted with eighth overall this past draft after playing his freshman season at BYU.

The 6’9” Denim has had an up-and-down start to his NBA career with the Nets, but showed a lot of promise as a versatile scorer and playmaker last season at BYU, averaging 10.6 points and 5.5 assists per game while struggling with his outside shot, shooting 27.3% from three. Avdalas has a lot of the same playmaking upside as Demin, but has already shown a more developed outside shot from his time in Europe and with his 5-8 three point shooting performance against Providence–more than any Demin had in a single collegiate game.

Not surprisingly, the biggest knock on Avdalas’ game is his defense. A plus athlete at 6’9”, he has the physical tools to be at least a passable off-ball NBA defender, but that has yet to show so far. He will likely get his fair share of blocks just by being on the floor at his height, but that does not mean that he is a polished interior defender. I personally would not worry too much about his defense at this point. Yes, he will struggle on the ball as a point-of-attack defender, but in the NBA he should not be put in that position very often.

In early mock drafts, analysts have Avdalas all over the first round. The Athletic’s Sam Vecenie has him at 28 in his latest mock. CBS Sports’ Adam Finkelstein has Avdalas a little higher at 21. Bleacher Report’s Jonathan Wasserman has him all the way at 14. In order for the Wizards to have a shot at Avdalas without making a trade, they would probably hope that he falls towards the end of the first round so they could use their least favorable of the Thunder/Clippers/Rockets first round picks. If Avdalas continues to shoot at a high level, it is difficult to imagine a player of his skillset who does not have significant shooting concerns falling out of the lottery.

It is very easy to envision Avdalas’ fit alongside the Wizards’ young core because of his positional versatility and playmaking. He could play alongside Bub Carrington in more of a secondary creator role or start as the point guard in more jumbo lineups. The NBA is trending towards taller, positionless lineups, and having a player like Avdalas would give the Wizards the ability to have one of the most versatile units in the league.

Virginia Tech is just about a four hour drive from Washington, DC. The Hokies are looking like an NCAA Tournament team this year, and Avdalas is the biggest reason why. It would be well worth the day trip down to Blacksburg to check out one of the most intriguing 2026 NBA Draft prospects.

Source: https://www.bulletsforever.com/nba-draft/66106/2026-nba-draft-preview-neoklis-avdalas
 
Wizards vs. Nets preview: Washington hosts Brooklyn on Sunday night

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The Washington Wizards play the Brooklyn Nets tomorrow night. Let’s get to it.

Game info​


When: Sunday, Nov. 16 at 6 p.m. ET

Where: Capital One Arena, Washington

How to watch: Monumental Sports Network

Injuries: For the Wizards, Bilal Coulibaly is out while Jamir Watkins is day to day. For the Nets, Cam Thomas and Haywood Highsmith are out.

What to watch for​


This is … the … tank bowl I assume? Both Brooklyn and Washington head into tomorrow’s game with one win each and identical 1-11 records. Someone is going to win. The Wizards SHOULD be the favorites because they re heading in with fresher legs. The Nets lost to the Orlando Magic on Friday.

At some point, the Wizards have to snap their 10 game losing streak, right? Hopefully tomorrow is that night.

Source: https://www.bulletsforever.com/wash...ington-wizards-brooklyn-nets-nba-game-preview
 
Wizards Checkup: Alex Sarr Is Breaking the Timeline. The Rest…Not So Good. Yet.

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Twelve games into the 2025-26 season, the Washington Wizards are — as expected, as planned — one of the very worst teams in the NBA. They’re tied with the Brooklyn Nets (also bad by design) and the Indiana Pacers (pummeled by injuries) with identical 1-11 records, and only the Pacers have a worse strength of schedule adjusted scoring margin.

What makes the Wizards worth watching, even as they get thumped nightly, is their effort, desire to compete, and youth. Also, Alex Sarr. I’ll come back to him.

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I keep hearing announcers say the Wizards are the NBA’s “second youngest team.” I’m sure this stat nugget is produced by doing something like averaging the ages of the players on the roster. This doesn’t make a lot of sense — having an old guy or two who doesn’t play sitting on the bench doesn’t say much of anything about a team’s age. What matters is their functional age, which is to ask who’s actually getting minutes.

Using minutes-weighted age, the Wizards are the league’s youngest team. Their rotation so far this season has the lowest average age, just squeaking in ahead of the Charlotte Hornets.

That youth holds some promise for the future. In theory, the young guys will improve and the older guys replaced with younger, better players. In the present, it’s painful. Mostly.

One thing Wizards fans should be enjoying is the performance of Alex Sarr. The 20-year-old big man struggled at times last season but was still pretty good for a teenaged rookie. In the work I’ve done analyzing career trajectories, year two for a teen rookie tends to be one of relatively modest growth. The Leap typically comes in years three and four.

Through 12 games, Sarr is ahead of schedule.

His offensive rating (points produced per 100 individual possessions) was more than 16 points per 100 possessions below average last season. This year, he’s closed the gap to just 1.2 points below average while boosting his usage rate from 22.8% to 26.9%. In other words, he’s carrying a heavier offensive load, and he’s doing it pretty well.

Even better, he’s improved across the board. He’s playing inside more — he’s taking (and making) more twos while taking more threes (but shooting a better percentage. His free throw attempts are up, and his free throw accuracy has gotten better too.

Offensive and defensive rebounding? Up. Same for his assists, blocks, and scoring. He’s fouling less and his defensive impact has improved. He is committing more turnovers, but his turnover rate hasn’t gone up as much as his assists.

I’m not praising him for tripping over a low bar. He’s become actually good — PPA: 161, which is around All-Star level production. Will he get there this season? Probably not. Players from winning teams usually get that honor. But if he keeps playing this well, he’ll deserve consideration — and the wins will come if the front office can assemble a decent roster around him.

What’s fun is that he still has lots of room to improve — strength, touch around the basket, free throw shooting, drawing fouls, reducing turnovers, three-point shooting, positional defense (vs. chasing blocks), to name a few.

The Measuring Stick​


The Wizards are the league’s youngest team, and they do a lot of the stereotypically young stuff — namely play fast and make lots of mistakes. They’re fourth in pace, and on a per-possession basis, the Wizards commit the sixth most turnovers, the ninth most fouls, allow the most opponent offensive rebounds, and are at or near the bottom in every meaningful statistical category.

Here’s where they rank in those meaningful statistical measures:

  • Offensive Rating (points scored per 100 possessions): 28
  • Defensive Rating (points allowed per 100 possessions): 29

And, there ranks in the four factors that determine who wins and loses in basketball:

Offensive Four Factors​

  • eFG%: 22
  • Offensive Rebounding Percentage: 22
  • Turnover Rate: 27
  • Free Throws Made/Field Goal Attempts: 28

Defensive Four Factors​

  • eFG%: 20
  • Defensive Rebounding Percentage: 29
  • Turnover Rate: 30
  • Free Throws Made/Field Goal Attempts: 17

What does this tell us? The Wizards don’t shoot well or get many offensive rebounds. They also commit a lot of turnovers and don’t get to the free throw line. On defense, they’re not far from average at making the other team miss — by far the most important defensive factor — and they do a reasonable job of not putting opponents on the free throw line, but they don’t force turnovers or do the job on the defensive glass.

Opponents get the shots they want with little risk of Washington forcing them into turnovers. Making those shots is kinda irrelevant because they can collect the miss and try again.

PPA and Other Metrics​


Below is a table with a first look at results from Player Production Average (PPA) metric so far this season. Player Production Average (PPA) is an overall rating metric I developed that credits players for things they do that help a team win (scoring, rebounding, play-making, defending) and debits them for things that hurt the cause (missed shots, turnovers, fouls, ineffective defense). PPA is similar to other linear weight rating metrics such as John Hollinger’s PER, David Berri’s Wins Produced, Kevin Pelton’s VORP, and the granddaddy of them all, Dave Heeren’s TENDEX.

PPA weighs a player’s performance per possession against that of his competitors season by season. While PPA falls into the category of a linear weight metric, the values for statistical categories float a bit season-to-season based on league performance.

PPA is pace neutral, accounts for defense, and includes a “degree of difficulty” factor based on the level of competition a player faces while on the floor. Beginning with the 2019-20 season, I added a position/role adjustment designed to reflect how roles and on-court positioning affect individual abilities to produce certain stats.

Inputs include:

  • on-court team defensive rating
  • points
  • rebounds (offensive and defensive weighed differently)
  • assists
  • steals
  • blocks
  • shot attempts
  • turnovers
  • personal fouls
  • starts
  • minutes

In the table below, I’m also including games, minutes per game, usage rate and offensive rating.

ROTATIONAGEGMSMPGORTGUSGPPA
Alex Sarr201229.411426.1%161
Kyshawn George221130.910921.6%96
CJ McCollum341229.310823.0%90
Marvin Bagley III261214.413718.7%90
Justin Champagnie24118.512415.0%84
Khris Middleton34924.410517.8%63
Bilal Coulibaly21423.89323.6%63
Corey Kispert261219.312814.9%62
Tre Johnson191225.810318.4%54
Cam Whitmore211217.310220.9%48
Bub Carrington201227.48715.8%13
GARBAGE TIMEAGEGMSMPGORTGUSGPPA
Malaki Branham2256.813919.4%81
Anthony Gill3352.613021.9%65
Will Riley1997.110814.9%46
Jamir Watkins2437.01219.4%29
Tristan Vukcevic2295.89922.6%20
AJ Johnson2175.08415.5%-13
Sharife Cooper2422.0011.7%-75

Source: https://www.bulletsforever.com/wash...breaking-the-timeline-the-restnot-so-good-yet
 
Wizards vs Nets final score: Washington defends poorly in 129-106 loss

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Going into this one, the Wizards were trying to avoid extending their losing streak to an embarrassing 11 game losing streak, and facing the Brooklyn Nets at home was probably an opportunity from Heaven. Both teams came into the night with 1-11 records, and the Nets had no road wins. Naturally, the Wizards squandered the opportunity and lost, 129-106.

The game started out reflecting this was a match-up of (bottom of the standings) titans with a 28-28 first quarter.

The Nets got some separation in the second quarter, going to the locker rooms with a 63-53 lead.

But, what’s 10 points in today’s NBA?

The third quarter remained balanced, but the Wizards were not able to keep the Nets off the three point line, where the Nets were shooting close to 45%.

The fourth quarter started with the Wizards still trailing by 10, down 94-84.

But, the Nets dominated down the stretch, not allowing Wizards fans to enjoy any sign of a comeback. The wheels fell off the wagon in the last four minutes, and the final margin ballooned to 23.

And, so after 13 games, the Wizards have officially conquered the bottom of the standings, sitting all alone at 1-12. They have yet to win a single game at home (0-6), and they gave \the Nets their first road win of the season.

Kyshawn George was a bright spot with 29 points including 5-10 from deep. C.J. McCollum added a calm 17 points. For the Nets, Tyrese Martin had 20 off the bench, and Michael Porter Jr. a smooth 34 points, including 9-10 from the charity stripe.

Next, the Wizards hit the road and face the Timberwolves in Minnesota on Wednesday.

Source: https://www.bulletsforever.com/wash...ore-washington-defends-poorly-in-129-106-loss
 
In “Best Chance to Win,” Wizards Collect 11th Straight Loss

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Sure, the Wizards lost by 23 to a Brooklyn Nets squad sporting an identical 1-11 record, but it marked a resounding success — Washington snapped a six-game streak of allowing opponents at least 12 offensive rebounds, and a two-game streak giving up at least 20 offensive boards. This is the stuff dreams are made of.

I jest — ChatGPT tells me dreams are made of neural noise, memory fragments, emotional residue, and your brain’s best attempt to make sense of all that chaos. Why does that feel like ChatGPT is sub-tweeting this year’s Wizards?

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So, I’ll take the blame for this one. I wrote a check-up article for yesterday that lauded the play of Alex Sarr and gestured at hope the rest of the team would get better. In grand #SoWizards tradition, Sarr played his worst game of the season, and the Wizards could not contain the NBA’s 24th ranked offense.

In what figured to be one of their better chances to get a win, they lost by 23. Their next opportunity to get blown out by a bad team is Nov. 28 at the Indiana Pacers. The Wizards have other chances to get blown out but those will be against good or mediocre teams, not one of the league’s worst. Plan accordingly.

Thougts & Observations​

  • Kyshawn George had a strong overall game — 29 points with a 124 offensive rating (almost +9 relative to league average). He also fouled out for the third time in 12 games played this season. He’s had five or more fouls 9 times, and 4 or more in 11 games. At the risk of getting too technical, that’s too much.
  • Sarr has played well so far this season, but was ineffective last night against Brooklyn. He joined George in fouling out.
  • Bilal Coulibaly returned to the starting lineup after missing four games with some muscle tightness. He shot just 2-6, but contributed some rebounds, assists, and steals.
  • CJ McCollum and Khris Middleton weren’t bad, I guess.
  • Michael Porter Jr. played like a man trying to convince contending teams to trade for him — 34 points, 9 rebounds, 7 assists. I’m sure he’d love to see Wizards defenders more often.

Four Factors​


Below are the four factors that decide wins and losses in basketball — shooting (efg), rebounding (offensive rebounds), ball handling (turnovers), fouling (free throws made).

The four factors are measured by:

  • eFG% (effective field goal percentage, which accounts for the three-point shot)
  • OREB% (offensive rebound percentage)
  • TOV% (turnover percentage — turnovers divided by possessions)
  • FTM/FGA (free throws made divided by field goal attempts)
FOUR FACTORSNETSWIZARDSLGAVG
eFG%63.9%51.2%54.3%
OREB%18.9%7.5%26.4%
TOV%14.1%10.1%13.3%
FTM/FGA0.3540.2380.227
PACE99100.5
ORTG130107115.6

Stats & Metrics​


PPA is my overall production metric, which credits players for things they do that help a team win (scoring, rebounding, playmaking, defending) and dings them for things that hurt (missed shots, turnovers, bad defense, fouls).

PPA is a per possession metric designed for larger data sets. In small sample sizes, the numbers can get weird. In PPA, 100 is average, higher is better and replacement level is 45. For a single game, replacement level isn’t much use, and I reiterate the caution about small samples sometimes producing weird results.

POSS is the number of possessions each player was on the floor in this game.

ORTG = offensive rating, which is points produced per individual possessions x 100. League average so far this season is 115.1. Points produced is not the same as points scored. It includes the value of assists and offensive rebounds, as well as sharing credit when receiving an assist.

USG = offensive usage rate. Average is 20%.

ORTG and USG are versions of stats created by former Wizards assistant coach Dean Oliver and modified by me. ORTG is an efficiency measure that accounts for the value of shooting, offensive rebounds, assists and turnovers. USG includes shooting from the floor and free throw line, offensive rebounds, assists and turnovers.

+PTS = “Plus Points” is a measure of the points gained or lost by each player based on their efficiency in this game compared to league average efficiency on the same number of possessions. A player with an offensive rating (points produced per possession x 100) of 100 who uses 20 possessions would produce 20 points. If the league average efficiency is 114, the league — on average — would produced 22.8 points in the same 20 possessions. So, the player in this hypothetical would have a +PTS score of -2.8.

Players are sorted by total production in the game.

WIZARDSMINPOSSORTGUSG+PTSPPA+/-
Kyshawn George326612434.6%1.9141-15
CJ McCollum326712619.9%1.41290
Khris Middleton275713917.7%2.41283
Bilal Coulibaly285711212.5%-0.3103-1
Bub Carrington204211912.0%0.2105-25
Corey Kispert15319510.6%-0.754-8
Cam Whitmore132710123.3%-1.046-13
Marvin Bagley III17358215.6%-1.8-5-6
Alex Sarr23488022.1%-3.8-41-2
Tre Johnson17356125.3%-4.9-110-25
Tristan Vukcevic7148114.3%-0.770-8
Justin Champagnie71310825.9%-0.338-15
AJ Johnson36014.7%-1.0-950
NETSMINPOSSORTGUSG+PTSPPA+/-
Michael Porter Jr.347014931.0%7.226417
Tyrese Martin265414624.1%4.029626
Nic Claxton306314721.3%4.220214
Noah Clowney306212812.3%1.010716
Ziaire Williams306213213.7%1.47713
Egor Demin204111915.4%0.2102-3
Terance Mann296010618.4%-1.16610
Drake Powell19399515.4%-1.28013
Day’Ron Sharpe163210921.5%-0.5649
Jalen Wilson2530216.0%1.45220
Tyson Etienne2510148.0%-0.300
E.J. Liddell25032.0%-1.700

Source: https://www.bulletsforever.com/wash...nce-to-win-wizards-collect-11th-straight-loss
 
Brian Keefe will NOT be fired just because the Wizards are bad this season

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So, the Washington Wizards have the worst record in the NBA this season at 1-12 (tied with the Indiana Pacers) after losing to the Brooklyn Nets last night. It isn’t that the Wizards lost to the Nets. It’s also that the Nets had a then-identical 1-10 record as the Wizards yesterday. They also were humiliated on their home court by another bad team.

So you start seeing X posts like these where fans are laying out the pitchforks, demanding that Head Coach Brian Keefe be fired.

We need to fire Keefe. I’m afraid we are stunting our young guys more than developing them. Some of the habits this team has is disgusting pic.twitter.com/ej4XiT2etn

— PlayoffWAS (@PlayoffWAS) November 17, 2025
We’re getting crushed by a team that’s horrible just like us!!

Brian Keefe do not have a good hold on this young squad. They need somebody to really coach and relate to them. That can get to them. He’s not it!! #Wizards #FireKeefe

— JJ Childs (@BigSargeJJ) November 17, 2025
Brian Keefe gotta go… I get you wanna keep him for the tank but guys aren’t developing properly..

— wizkidsforever (@wizkidsforever) November 17, 2025

And furthermore, the players had one of those notable … players only meetings in the locker room. Josh Robbins of the Athletic reported this last night.

The Wizards' players had a players-only meeting in their locker room after tonight's loss to the Nets, Kyshawn George said.

— Josh Robbins (@JoshuaBRobbins) November 17, 2025

So, first, is Keefe’s job on the line? And should he lose his job?

First, there is no indication that Keefe is on thin ice. He was hired to lead a team that is built to lose games in the hopes that a franchise savior is drafted in a year or two or … five. In short, Monumental Basketball President Michael Winger and General Manager Will Dawkins are content with the Wizards tanking for awhile. Hell, Winger and Mystics General Manager Jamila Wideman even dismantled the Mystics right before the most critical offseason in WNBA history, and EVEN when there were three All-Stars on the team and they were in the playoff hunt.

Right now, Monumental Basketball’s philosophy is something to the effect of “we rebuild from the ground up by any means necessary.”

So in short, Keefe will NOT be fired because the Wizards are losing games, even to other bad teams. And since Keefe has some deeper connections with Monumental Basketball brass, he’ll be fine for a while.

It’s not happening folks. Brian Keefe isn’t getting fired. Not by fellow OKC alumni Will Dawkins and Michael Winger.

The #Wizards have the 2nd youngest roster in the NBA. They will lose and lose. They will give the 2023-24 #Pistons a run for their money with this losing streak! https://t.co/AFpDSl5I42

— Faisal Hassan (@Faazzla) November 17, 2025

So what are the reasons WHY Keefe would be fired in 2025-26?

Consider any notable HR scandal and its underlying causes. We’re talking about things like corporate stealing, being deeply involved in the NBA betting scandal (ex. Chauncey Billups’ days with the Portland Trail Blazers are definitely numbered) or office misconduct like harassment (ex. the NWSL firing and giving lifetime bans to several team coaches a few years ago). But again, there is no evidence of Keefe being accused of these things. So unless something crazy comes up, Keefe is staying this season, period.

Leading a bad team where management more or less wants the team to be bad in the standings is NOT going to get the coach fired in the short term.

At some point, Winger and Dawkins will have expectations for the Wizards to win more than … five games a year. Ted Leonsis will get impatient too. But until then, as Wizards fans, we’re in for a lot of Groundhog Days.

Source: https://www.bulletsforever.com/wash...n-keefe-should-he-be-fired-washington-wizards
 
The Wizards’ players-only meeting happened after Brian Keefe’s postgame remarks

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The Washington Wizards are on an 11-game losing streak, and things are looking pessimistic. And some want head coach Brian Keefe fired. But we know that’s not happening.

When players hold players-only meetings, there seems to be an insinuation that something isn’t going right. Something along the lines of the head coach “losing the locker room.” Joshua Robbins of The Athletic provided more context on when the players-only meeting took place. It happened directly after Keefe gave his postgame remarks.

“We buckled to the adversity,” coach Brian Keefe said. “We fouled when we shouldn’t. We didn’t dig in when they made certain runs. This group has never done that. That was disappointing on all of our end. We have to own that. But that was the thing that was bothering me the most, is that after the initial start of the game, which I thought we came out with a necessary mindset and attitude, once we got hit, we didn’t respond well.”

It was a bad enough performance that, after Keefe spoke to the team following the final buzzer, the Wizards held a players-only meeting in their locker room.

“We needed that talk, I think,” Coulibaly said afterward. “The guys just stepped up, the vets, the guys that have been used to winning. That’s what we’re trying to do here in the next year. So they had to talk to us, and they did a great job about this and everybody was listening.”

No one is exactly sure what was said in the meeting itself, but it seems like sometimes, players-only meetings are just that. A reinforcement about what a team’s expectations are. It’s not necessarily some plot to get the coach fired or emasculated.

Anyway, what are your thoughts on this meeting? Let us know in the comments below.

Source: https://www.bulletsforever.com/late...-happened-after-brian-keefes-postgame-remarks
 
Wizards at Timberwolves preview: Washington looks to end 11 game losing streak on Wednesday

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The Washington Wizards play the Minnesota Timberwolves tomorrow night. Let’s get to it.

Game info​


When: Wednesday, Nov. 19 at 8 p.m. ET

Where: Target Center, Minneapolis, MN

How to watch: Monumental Sports Network

Injuries: For the Wizards, Alex Sarr is day-to-day. For the Timberwolves, Terrence Shannon is out, and Jaden McDaniels is day-to-day.

What to watch for​


The Wizards are looking to snap an 11-game losing streak. Every NBA team player, coach, and their mother and their ancestors know that the Wizards want to win more than they do. However, I think we all know that the Wizards aren’t winning most of their games this season. That said, an 11-game losing streak is a lot, right? Maybe the Wolves will be a little complacent tomorrow at home and look like … Washington did last Sunday?

Hey, it can happen!

Minnesota is currently sixth in the Western Conference with a 9-5 record coming off a win against the Dallas Mavericks on Nov. 17. Let’s see if Washington can catch Minnesota off guard.

Source: https://www.bulletsforever.com/wash...zards-minnesota-timberwolves-nba-game-preveiw
 
Are the Wizards “too good” at tanking?

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The last couple days have been a little trying for Washington Wizards fans. Sure, none of us expected to see the Wizards winning most of their games in the 2025-26 NBA season. But when is the effort to tank going to well?

Yesterday, I wrote on the same topic. But I’ll link to another article from earlier this week by Varun Shankar of The Washington Post. There are additional insights into the circumstances surrounding the players-only meeting that followed the Wizards’ blowout loss to the Brooklyn Nets last Sunday. From Shankar’s piece:

This loss felt different — and despite the coaches’ denials, it seems as if it was at least partially because of the opponent. Center Alex Sarr said the issues struck the team more after Sunday’s loss because it was a game Washington should have won; asked why, he pointed to the Nets’ record. Sarr also said the coaching staff was not a topic of discussion during the players-only meeting.

Asked about Keefe’s postgame message, forward Kyshawn George said: “Look at yourself in the mirror and answer the deeper questions. It’s more than basketball. What do you really want in life? What do you want to build? What do we want to do here as an organization? Just make sure you answer the question correctly and come up with the correct mindset the next day.”

As an organization, the Wizards want to build a long term contender through the NBA Draft. But to get prime draft position, the Wizards (or any team with such goals) will construct teams that are built to lose games in the short term. Players and coaches do not want to lose games and it takes a toll on them at some point. Still, I’d say that if the Wizards can be resilient and win their fair share of games for the rest of this season, then maybe we as fans will see at least some of the current players be part of Washington’s next playoff team and beyond. But if they are buckling regularly this season, then this rebuild will last longer than what the front office believes.

So do I think the Wizards are “too good” at tanking? No. Not yet. But losing endlessly won’t guarantee a franchise savior at some point.

Let us know your thoughts in the comments below.

Source: https://www.bulletsforever.com/wash...21/washington-wizards-tanking-losing-concerns
 
Wizards at Timberwolves: Washington loses battle in Minnesota, 120-109

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The Washington Wizards saw their comeback efforts fall short on Wednesday in a 120-109 road loss to the Minnesota Timberwolves at Target Center.

The Wizards followed a similar script in the first quarter. The Wiz Kids hung tough against a superior opponent, trading baskets and leads early. Cam Whitmore punctuated the quarter with a couple of And-1 finishes at the rim.

SHEEEEEESH CAM 😤 pic.twitter.com/COXfZWKMqC

— Washington Wizards (@WashWizards) November 20, 2025

The game, as has also been usually scripted, unraveled in the second quarter. Washington failed to score a single point until the six-minute mark of the period, as a CJ McCollum finger roll mercifully put an end to a 16-o onslaught to start the second.

Turnovers, a familiar adversary in the Wizards’ season-long struggle, doomed D.C. in the first half. Washington committed 12 turnovers, leading to 20 Minnesota points, while failing to score a single point off the Timberwolves’ two turnovers. Naz Reid by himself outscored the Wiz 18-17 in the quarter to give the T-Wolves a 71-46 lead at the break.

Brian Keefe more than likely had a stirring message at halftime, as the Wizards came out motivated in the third quarter. They forced more turnovers (3) in the first couple of minutes of the third than they did in the entire first half (2). The post-break Wiz began the quarter on a 17-4 run to make it a ballgame.

Kyshawn George left his fingerprints all over the floor in the third. The second-year wing scored 12 points and dished out three assists in the period, closing out the quarter with an isolation fadeaway jumper to get Washington within 94-82.

Ky to close out Q3 🤝 pic.twitter.com/Xw7Ykl8ewm

— Washington Wizards (@WashWizards) November 20, 2025

The Wizards had a chance to get within three as George headed to the free-throw line with 3:52 left in the game. But Kyshawn missed both attempts, and Mike Conley Jr. hit a three-pointer to swing the game back the other way. The Timberwolves held on for the 11-point victory.

The glass-half-full take on the contest is that the Wizards refused to roll over. After falling behind by as many as 27 points, Washington could have coasted the rest of the way, but instead battled to make things interesting down the stretch. Nonetheless, the final result dealt Washington its 12th straight loss.

With no Alex Sarr in this one, George led the way with 23 points, seven rebounds, and seven assists. Bilal Coulibaly, Khris Middleton, and Whitmore each had 13, while Tre Johnson tacked on 10 points off the bench.

The Wizards continue their road trip on Friday against the surging Toronto Raptors.

Source: https://www.bulletsforever.com/wash...-washington-loses-battle-in-minnesota-120-109
 
Wizards at Raptors preview: Washington travels to Canada for NBA Cup

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If you’re feeling like the Washington Wizards haven’t won in a month, you’re right! If the Wizards lose yet again, their 13-game losing streak will span a full 30 days. i

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Game Info


When: Friday, Nov. 21 at 7:30 p.m. ET

Where: ScotiaBank Arena, Toronto, Canada

How to watch: Monumental Sports Network

Injury Report


Wizards: Alex Sarr (day-to-day, toe), Marvin Bagley III (day-to-day, hip contusion).

Raptors: Collin Murray-Boyles (out, knee).

Pregame notes

  • Winless in NBA Cup play — The Wizards are the only team in the NBA to have never won NBA Cup game. Their all-time Cup record is 0-9.
  • Bonus NBA Cup Fact — At -112, the Wizards have the worst cumulative scoring differential in NBA Cup play.
  • A tale of two rebuilds — The Raptors and the Wizards have been rebuilding the past few years. The Raptors have made a quicker turnaround. This season they are playing (very) surprisingly (very) well! They have won 9 of their last 10 games and are sitting at 10-5 after 15 games. The Wizards are on a 12-game losing skid.
  • Not all gloom — The Wizards have promising young pieces and a one or two trade chips (CJ McCollum might bring back a first-rounder).

Flashback: Double OT in the Arena


Several years ago, while D.C. was snowed in, those who managed to make it to the game saw a fantastic showdown with Kawhi Leonard, Bradley Beal and a double-OT nail-biter.

It’s perhaps nice to watch again:

Source: https://www.bulletsforever.com/wash...view-washington-travels-to-canada-for-nba-cup
 
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