That was better. A game after losing by 45 to the Boston Celtics, the Wizards fell behind by as much as 20 in the first half, erased that entire deficit to tie the game early in the fourth quarter, and then got bum rushed over the final 10 minutes to lose by 15.
Yes, this was an improvement. And yet, even when the score was tied at 97, it never felt like the Wizards had a realistic chance of actually winning. It seemed like one of those basketball runs where the team burns so much energy just catching up that they just can’t close the deal. The in-game win probability calculator at ESPN shared the sentiment — it still had the Hawks with a 63% chance of winning from that point.
The Wizards lost by 15 despite hitting 17-38 from three (44.7%) and posting an effective field goal percentage of 61.9% because…well…they did almost nothing else well. Atlanta out-rebounded them 45-26. Washington committed 20 turnovers to Atlanta’s 12, and their defense was ineffective throughout.
Rebounding is a major problem for the Wizards. Last night, they managed just 4 offensive boards to Atlanta’s 30 defensive rebounds, and had only 22 defensive rebounds vs. 15 Hawks offense boards.
This against a Hawks team that ranks 26th in offensive rebounding percentage. Repeatedly last night, Wizards players turned and watched for the ball to come off the rim while Atlanta players crashing from the corners ran past them for easy offensive rebounds. They also got pushed around inside by Onyeka Okongwu, who’s been meh on the offensive glass throughout is career, including this season.
I mean, if they’re getting overpowered by Okongwu, what’s going to happen when they play Steven Adams?!
Another big problem is the turnovers. Kyshawn George had five — some of which were just dumb plays — but they’re at worst somewhat forgivable. He’s not quite 22-years-old, he’s in his second season, and he’s trying to make plays. Maybe he learns to be more judicious as he gains experience.
CJ McCollum had six, which — while he was getting hounded by Dyson Daniels or Nickeil Alexander-Walker much of the time — is less forgivable. He’s 34, in his 13th season, and should be making better decisions. In fairness, McCollum’s turnovers this season are near a career low. This was a bad game for him on that front. The six miscues were enough to transmogrify a 73.5% eFG into a below average 111 offensive rating (points produced per possession x 100).
One positive was the willingness to pass — the team had 29 assists on 41 field goals. They did come with 20 turnovers and a subpar 1.45 assist-to-turnover ratio, but let’s choose to be happy about a 71% assist rate.
I was surprised to see Cam Whitmore sidelined the entire night. After the game, Varun Shankar from the Washington Post tweeted this:
“We have certain standards that we have for our team,” said Wizards head coach Brian Keefe. “He has to live up to those better. And he’ll have a chance here, but that’s gonna be up to him when that time comes.”
As the great Fred Katz might have tweeted, “Yikes guys.”
Thoughts & Observations
- Kyshawn George is so close to being genuinely good. Last night: 15 points, 6 rebounds, 7 assists, 3 steals and a block. He hit 3-7 from deep. He also had five turnovers and three fouls. The number of fouls wasn’t the issue though a couple of them were of the over-aggressive kinda silly variety.
- George’s name featured prominently in exactly the kind of stuff that makes me dislike the Monumental broadcast. He tallied his third assist in the first half with a nice pass, and Chris Miller then praised George for doing some excellent playmaking in the half. Except, George had three turnovers to go with the assists, which is…well…not excellent. Just say, “Nice pass.” and move on.
- In a return to the starting lineup, Bub Carrington made shots (including 3-4 from three) and had 9 assists to just 1 turnover. He drove into the lane at least a couple times, which was good to see.
- Tristan Vukcevic played well offensively — 18 points in 27 minutes, 5 rebounds, and 4 assists — including a behind-the-back bounce pass on the break that’ll probably show up in tomorrow’s NBA top 10 plays.
- Justin Champagnie was in the starting lineup and he played well (again) — 16 points, 5 rebounds, 3 assists, a steal and 3 blocks. Maybe this isn’t galaxy brain enough thinking for the team’s decision-makers, but why not give the productive 24-year-old a consistent role with this team and see what happens?
- McCollum scored 28 points on 17 shots and ended up with a below average PPA because he amassed zero rebounds and 3 assists (to 6 turnovers) in 36 minutes.
- There is no way AJ Johnson is 23 pounds heavier this season than he was last year. Not no way, not no how.
- Jalen Johnson is a helluva player (30 points, 12 rebounds, 12 assists). At least when Washington doesn’t have Bilal Coulibaly in the lineup.
Four Factors
Below are the four factors that decide wins and losses in basketball — shooting (efg), rebounding (offensive rebounds), ball handling (turnovers), fouling (free throws made).
The four factors are measured by:
- eFG% (effective field goal percentage, which accounts for the three-point shot)
- OREB% (offensive rebound percentage)
- TOV% (turnover percentage — turnovers divided by possessions)
- FTM/FGA (free throws made divided by field goal attempts)
| FOUR FACTORS | HAWKS | WIZARDS | LGAVG |
|---|
| eFG% | 59.7% | 61.9% | 54.5% |
| OREB% | 40.5% | 11.8% | 26.2% |
| TOV% | 11.9% | 19.8% | 13.0% |
| FTM/FGA | 0.143 | 0.213 | 0.221 |
| PACE | 101 | 100.1 | |
| ORTG | 130 | 115 | 115.8 |
Stats & Metrics
PPA is my overall production metric, which credits players for things they do that help a team win (scoring, rebounding, playmaking, defending) and dings them for things that hurt (missed shots, turnovers, bad defense, fouls).
PPA is a per possession metric designed for larger data sets. In small sample sizes, the numbers can get weird. In PPA, 100 is average, higher is better and replacement level is 45. For a single game, replacement level isn’t much use, and I reiterate the caution about small samples sometimes producing weird results.
POSS is the number of possessions each player was on the floor in this game.
ORTG = offensive rating, which is points produced per individual possessions x 100. League average so far this season is 115.1. Points produced is not the same as points scored. It includes the value of assists and offensive rebounds, as well as sharing credit when receiving an assist.
USG = offensive usage rate. Average is 20%.
ORTG and USG are versions of stats created by former Wizards assistant coach Dean Oliver and modified by me. ORTG is an efficiency measure that accounts for the value of shooting, offensive rebounds, assists and turnovers. USG includes shooting from the floor and free throw line, offensive rebounds, assists and turnovers.
+PTS = “Plus Points” is a measure of the points gained or lost by each player based on their efficiency in this game compared to league average efficiency on the same number of possessions. A player with an offensive rating (points produced per possession x 100) of 100 who uses 20 possessions would produce 20 points. If the league average efficiency is 114, the league — on average — would produced 22.8 points in the same 20 possessions. So, the player in this hypothetical would have a +PTS score of -2.8.
Players are sorted by total production in the game.
| WIZARDS | MIN | POSS | ORTG | USG | +PTS | PPA | +/- |
|---|
| Bub Carrington | 37 | 78 | 184 | 12.2% | 6.5 | 160 | -22 |
| Justin Champagnie | 32 | 68 | 164 | 14.0% | 4.6 | 152 | -16 |
| Kyshawn George | 36 | 76 | 105 | 20.9% | -1.7 | 113 | 0 |
| Tristan Vukcevic | 27 | 57 | 122 | 25.6% | 1.0 | 117 | -8 |
| CJ McCollum | 36 | 76 | 111 | 29.4% | -1.2 | 76 | -20 |
| Marvin Bagley III | 19 | 41 | 108 | 13.5% | -0.4 | 54 | -7 |
| Will Riley | 19 | 40 | 94 | 34.3% | -3.1 | 20 | 1 |
| Jamir Watkins | 16 | 33 | 86 | 7.5% | -0.8 | -23 | 1 |
| Malaki Branham | 14 | 31 | 41 | 21.9% | -5.0 | -142 | -4 |
| Anthony Gill | 2 | 3 | 0.0% | 0.0 | 0 | 0 | |
| AJ Johnson | 2 | 3 | 0 | 24.7% | -0.9 | -263 | 0 |
| HAWKS | MIN | POSS | ORTG | USG | +PTS | PPA | +/- |
|---|
| Jalen Johnson | 39 | 82 | 141 | 27.1% | 5.7 | 236 | 7 |
| Onyeka Okongwu | 36 | 76 | 122 | 24.2% | 1.1 | 169 | 7 |
| Luke Kennard | 23 | 48 | 188 | 13.6% | 4.7 | 252 | 10 |
| Vit Krejci | 31 | 65 | 165 | 10.8% | 3.5 | 171 | 21 |
| Asa Newell | 12 | 26 | 202 | 22.4% | 5.0 | 339 | 11 |
| Nickeil Alexander-Walker | 32 | 67 | 106 | 22.6% | -1.5 | 124 | 2 |
| Zaccharie Risacher | 19 | 39 | 141 | 15.2% | 1.5 | 140 | 3 |
| Mouhamed Gueye | 9 | 18 | 203 | 7.9% | 1.3 | 132 | 1 |
| Dyson Daniels | 36 | 76 | 81 | 22.1% | -5.8 | -14 | 13 |
| Keaton Wallace | 4 | 8 | 36 | 20.9% | -1.4 | -311 | -4 |
