Minnesota Vikings
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Vikings’ Post Patriots 53-Man Roster Projection
Source: https://www.dailynorseman.com/minne...ikings-post-patriots-53-man-roster-projection
The Minnesota Vikings have completed most of training camp, joint practices, and two preseason games now and the roster is coming into view. Still some time for players on the bubble to make their case for a roster spot, but not much time left for that either. So, taking into account what we’ve seen so far, here is my updated 53-man roster projection.
Quarterback (3)
The Vikings carried three quarterbacks on their 53-man active roster last season and I expect that to be the case again this season. The emergency third quarterback rule allows teams to suit up a 49th player to be active on game days as the emergency third quarterback. But in order to do so, that quarterback has to be on the 53-man roster.
QB1: J.J. McCarthy
It’s J.J. McCarthy’s team now, and he’s the X-factor for a team loaded with talent. I made the case back in April that expectations for McCarthy this season should be for stats similar to Sam Darnold last season, and I haven’t seen anything in training camp to cause me to change that view. He may exceed or fall short of those expectations, but that yardstick seems an appropriate one to measure him by this season, all things considered.
QB2: Sam Howell
Howell didn’t start training camp all that well, but has since improved and appears more comfortable in the system and that, in turn, has helped his poise in the pocket and decisiveness. His spot at QB2 looks safe despite a poor decision under pressure that led to an easy interception. But the next thing is will he show any signs of improvement over previous years? He may not get the chance during the regular season (knock on wood) but whether he’s able to take advantage of good quarterback coaching with the Vikings remains to be seen.
QB3: Max Brosmer
It wasn’t looking good for Brosmer initially after training camp began. He was slow in processing and throwing the ball which led to inaccuracies and picks. But he’s improved steadily since then and seems a lot more confident as he gets used to the system and quarterbacking at the NFL level generally. He’s shown in both preseason games that he can move the ball and operate the offense effectively. He looks to have the QB3 spot pretty well in hand at this point.
Cut/Practice Squad: Brett Rypien
Rypien also didn’t start training camp well, but unlike Howell and Brosmer, he hasn’t really shown much improvement. Brosmer looks like the better option to lead the offense in a QB3 role and has some developmental upside that Rypien no longer has at his age.
Half-Back/Full-Back (4)
Last year the Vikings only kept two half-backs on their initial 53-man roster, although they later added Cam Akers. I expect them to go with a total of four running backs on their initial roster this year, including fullback C.J. Ham.
RB1: Aaron Jones
Aaron Jones will be the lead back but his reps will be reduced this year to keep him as fresh and healthy as possible. His getting around 60% of the snaps seems about right.
RB2: Jordan Mason
Mason might be the better back than Jones at this point- he averaged more yards per carry and yards after contact than Jones last season- but that debate aside, he’s a credible threat at running back that defenses will need to account for and should be interchangeable with Jones at any point or any down despite their different run styles. Mason hasn’t been used as much as a pass catcher, but he could be equally damaging to defenses on a screen or outlet route.
RB3: Ty Chandler
Chandler didn’t play a lot against the Patriots, which is probably a good sign for his chances of making the roster. He also did well with the snaps he had as a runner and pass blocker, but had a drop as a receiver. I view the competition for RB3 is more Chandler’s to lose, and he hasn’t lost it. He’s shown some improved pass blocking ability which was KOC’s primary criticism of his game, so he keeps the RB3 spot over Zavier Scott.
FB: C.J. Ham
This is the last year of Ham’s contract and he’s a $3.5 million cap hit. And at age 32, it may be his last season with the Vikings. I wouldn’t rule out a possible extension- at a substantial pay cut- but it’s probably time for the Vikings to get serious about what their fullback need is going forward and whether they want to get a younger player who can also play special teams.
Cut/Practice Squad: Zavier Scott, Tre Stewart
Scott had a good preseason and had some buzz during training camp and would seem a likely candidate for the practice squad. Stewart had few opportunties to make the roster so his being cut is expected.
Wide Receiver (5)
The Vikings had six wide receivers on their initial 53-man roster last year, but that went down to five for most of the season as they only had two running backs on the roster initially. Addison will be suspended for the first three games of the season, which will allow the Vikings to keep an additional receiver for that period.
WR1: Justin Jefferson
Jefferson hasn’t participated in more than a day or two of training camp with a minor hamstring injury that he probably wouldn’t have missed any time from if it were the regular season, but the Vikings don’t need to see him and giving him the least amount of reps necessary to get him ready for week one is probably the goal.
WR2: Jordan Addison
Addison has had a great training camp and has been J.J. McCarthy’s go-to receiver in Jefferson’s absence. He looks like he’s taken another step in his development and could be a greater asset this season compared to last.
WR3: Jalen Nailor
Nailor entered the off-season bulked up which helps his value as a blocker, special teamer, and getting off of press coverage, but it hasn’t really translated into a good training camp as a receiver for Nailor. He injured his hand and may miss most of the time now until the cutdown deadline. The combination of his skillset, scheme knowledge and experience ensures him a roster spot and WR3 for now, but he could eventually be eclipsed by Tai Felton if he isn’t able to show more as a receiver.
WR4: Tai Felton
Felton is likely to earn some reps during Jordan Addison’s three-game suspension, but for now he needs to continue to learn and master the scheme. He’s shown some gradual improvement as a receiver since the start of training camp, but unfortunately not fast enough to gain much time with the first-team offense. The Vikings used Lucky Jackson to substitute for Justin Jefferson, and Thayer Thomas for Jalen Nailor when he was injured. Both practice squad guys from last season knew the scheme better and so were better positioned to step in and allow the first team offense to function efficiently compared to other receivers still learning the scheme.
WR5: Myles Price
Price went a long way toward winning a returner job on Saturday against the Patriots, with a big kickoff return and two decent punt returns as well. Tai Felton fumbling the first kickoff return casts some doubt on his hold on the position- he had been the favorite for kickoff returner. Silas Bolden, Price’s main competition for punt returner, let a punt bounce and roll inside the ten yard line on one of his punt return opportunities and that’s another mistake for him. Bolden entered training camp as a favorite for punt returner, but I don’t think he’s inspired much confidence from the coaching staff- and he hasn’t shown much on tape for the Vikings in his return opportunties.
I mentioned in one of my training camp notes to keep an eye on Myles Price. He’s been an under-the-radar guy since being acquired as a UDFA after the draft but watching him he doesn’t make a lot of mistakes and has shown some ability to get open as a receiver. He’s looks to have been third on the list for punt returner, but after Rondale Moore was lost for the season and Bolden really not doing much to secure the spot, Price was really just waiting for an opportunity and he got it on Saturday against the Patriots and made the most of it. He seems quite comfortable and confident in his demeanor so I’m not surprised he made the most of his return opportunities. Price also offers value as a receiver as he’s generally done well with his receiver opportunties against third-string competition and with 4.4” speed has the upside to do so against higher level competition as well as he learns the finer points of being a receiver in the NFL.
Temporary WR6: Thayer Thomas
This last and temporary wide receiver spot while Jordan Addison serves his suspension still seems up in the air so I don’t have a lot of confidence with this pick, but Thomas performed well in Jalen Nailor’s absence during joint practices- better than Lucky Jackson I thought- and he knows the offense so he can be inserted as needed and also provide some value on special teams while he’s on the roster. There are arguments to be made for Lucky Jackson, Tim Jones, or Jeshaun Jones too, but Thomas seemed to do the best against a first-team defense.
Cut/Practice Squad/IR: Rondale Moore (IR), Tim Jones, Dontavian (Lucky) Jackson, Dontae Fleming, Robert Lewis, Jeshaun Jones, Silas Bolden.
Rondale Moore was put on season-ending IR which may also end his career with the Vikings as he was on a one-year deal. Tim Jones had some nice deep catches in training camp and is a more experienced veteran, but I didn’t think he was as effective on the rest of the route tree and is of more questionable value on special teams- he had a couple penalties against the Patriots and didn’t grade well against the Texans. Dontae Fleming really hasn’t had the reps to be a serious consideration for this spot and hasn’t shown enough. Robert Lewis even more so. Jeshaun Jones is a consideration, but like with Tim Jones, Thayer Thomas might offer a bit more value overall. Silas Bolden doesn’t offer enough outside of a returner, but he doesn’t seem as confident and has made a couple questionable decisions on punt returns while not showing a good one at this point. That left the door open for Myles Price, who looks more comfortable and confident in the role and has the tape to prove it.
Tight End (3)
The Vikings had three tight ends on the initial 53-man roster last year with TJ Hockenson on the PUP list, but I have them keeping only three with Hockenson active this year simply because they should be able to get their fourth tight end on the practice squad without much problem.
TE1: T.J. Hockenson
No surprise here.
TE2: Josh Oliver
Again, no surprise here. Curious if he’ll see the field more this season, however. He was under-utilized last season.
TE3: Ben Yurosek
Yurosek didn’t have many reps against the Patriots, but I see that as a positive for his winning the TE3 spot. He’s looked the better tight end in training camp overall and I’m not sure if it’s really that close at this point.
Cut/Practice Squad: Gavin Bartholomew, Giovanni Ricci, Bryson Nesbit, Nick Vannett
Ricci was a more recent addision who simply hasn’t performed well enough to win a roster spot, and the same is true of Bryson Nesbit. Gavin Bartholomew has been injured and hasn’t participated in training camp or preseason games so he has no chance of making the roster. Nick Vannett is an even more recent addition and did well against the Patriots, but I don’t see the Vikings giving this spot to a 32 year-old tight end and letting a younger guy with upside in Yurosek go elsewhere. Vannett is the better risk to get to the practice squad if they want to try and keep him in that capacity.
Offensive Line (10)
The Vikings kept nine offensive linemen on the initial 53-man roster last year but also had Dalton Risner on the IR- Designated to Return list and after he came back kept ten offensive linemen on the roster.
All five starters are either contractual or draft pick locks to make the roster and start.
LT1: Christian Darrisaw
There seems to be some question whether Darrisaw will be ready for week one, but he seems to be on track to do so.
LG1: Donovan Jackson
No question about Jackson taking over the starting left guard spot from Blake Brandel. He’s looked good overall and has shown improvement since the beginning of training camp.
C1: Ryan Kelly
No question about Kelly being the starter either.
RG1: Will Fries
Fries will be the starting right guard for the next few years.
RT1: Brian O’Neill
No question here.
Swing Tackles: Walter Rouse and Justin Skule
Justin Skule was the clear favorite as the primary swing tackle from the get-go, as he replaced Christian Darrisaw at left tackle. He also is the only one with NFL game experience and did a nice job last season in Tampa Bay. Rouse had some competition from Leroy Watson, but remained the favorite and ultimately may be more of a right tackle backup.
Backup Guards: Blake Brandel, Joe Huber
Brandel is an experienced veteran and the coaching staff may take some comfort in that. He becomes an expensive backup, however and depending on how the Vikings view alternatives, they may be open to trade him and save around $3 million in cap space. I’m not sure how much better he is than Henry Byrd, but he is more experienced.
Joe Huber wasn’t a dominant guard in college, but he was solid and looks to have the consistency and strength as a rookie to make the roster as a second-backup at guard. He started both left and right guard his last two seasons at Wisconsin, with another season as a starter at right tackle at Cincinnati. He’s even had a handful of snaps at center last season and some at left tackle as a freshman. The Vikings gave him $210K guaranteed as a UDFA, so more than casual interest in signing him. And he’s proven them right as he’s had the best camp of the UDFA signings and was the highest graded offensive lineman in the first preseason week. He didn’t look to have fared as well against the Patriots, but he still seems like a serviceable replacement with room to develop.
Backup Center: Michael Jurgens
I wouldn’t say Jurgens has been especially impressive in training camp or preseason, but he’s had his moments. And there doesn’t seem to be any credible competition for this spot so Jurgens almost gets it by default. Zeke Correll went on IR and Vershon Lee hasn’t taken enough snaps at center to be a viable alternative.
Cut/Practice Squad/IR: Leroy Watson, Zeke Correll, Logan Brown, Henry Byrd, Vershon Lee, Michael Gonzalez.
Zeke Correll went on IR, Henry Byrd and Leroy Watson competed for the roster spot but came up a bit short, the same is true of Lee and even Gonzalez although he was a recent addition. Logan Brown never got many snaps a a third-stringer and I wonder if it’s because he didn’t earn more or they’re trying to sneak him on the practice squad so don’t want to give a lot for other teams to see on tape. All of these guys with the exception of Correll could be practice squad guys.
Defensive Interior Line (6)
The Vikings kept six interior defensive linemen last year and I expect the same this year.
Javon Hargrave
Hargrave will play nose tackle- although he could play other spots too- and will likely be the best interior pass rusher in the group. He may come out in some early downs in favor of Harrison Phillips, but I’m sure Brian Flores will want him out there for as many snaps as he can handle.
Jonathan Allen
Allen is a three-down defensive tackle that can defend the run and rush the passer. I would imagine Jalen Redmond will rotate with Allen on occasion.
Harrison Phillips
Phillips is likely to get fewer reps this season with the additions to the group- which is a good thing for his performance. Phillips is a run defender that hasn’t shown anything as a pass rusher. I would imagine Phillips to be the early down guy and Hargrave will replace him on passing downs.
Jalen Redmond
Redmond had an impressive season last year. He is likely to get a lot more reps in rotation this season as he is also a three-down defensive tackle. He could spell either Allen or Hargrave but I expect it will Allen more often.
Tyrion Ingram-Dawkins
Ingram-Dawkins is likely to need this year to develop before he sees the field much defensively, although he could be used more on special teams. If he develops well he could see some rotational reps but probably not a lot.
Levi Drake Rodriquez
Rodriquez was firmly in the second group in training camp, and although he didn’t play against the Patriots, that may have been due to a minor injury that kept him out during some of the joint practices as well. Lots of quality competition for this spot though.
Cut/Practice Squad: Taki Taimani, Jonathan Harris, Travis Bell, Elijah Williams.
Smart teams looking to bolster their interior defensive line should look to see who the Vikings cut, because more than likely they’ll be upgrades for the rest of the league. You can make the case for Taimani or Williams especially to get the last spot, and they could, but Rodriquez has been ahead of them all training camp and I’m not sure any of them have done enough to surpass him. Jonathan Harris did well against the Patriots but not enough for a roster spot.
Edge Rushers (5)
The Vikings kept five edge rushers last year and I have them doing the same this year. Tough group to gain a roster spot. The first three spots are contractual locks, and the last two were high-level UDFA signings last season. Richter proved to be a good core special teamer and run defender while Murphy was sidelined with an injury but was highly regarded- enough so to keep even though he missed most of the season.
ED1: Jonathan Greenard
Starting right edge.
ED2: Andrew Van Ginkel
Starting left edge but could see more snaps at off-ball linebacker.
ED3: Dallas Turner
I would not be surprised if Turner gets about the same number of snaps as Greenard and Van Ginkel this season spelling them and as a third edge rusher/occasional off-ball linebacker like Van Ginkel.
ED4: Gabriel Murphy
I put Murphy here and that’s probably how the Vikings have him too, but Bo Richter isn’t far behind. Murphy has had a good training camp and preseason and solidified this spot on the depth chart.
ED5: Bo Richter
Tyler Batty provided some competition, but this was Richter’s spot to lose and he defended it well in training camp and both preseason games.
Cut/Practice Squad: Tyler Batty, Chaz Chambliss, Max Tooley
I would not be surprised if Batty and even Chambliss signed on with another team- this is another extremely tough group to displace someone for a roster spot. Max Tooley never had a chance.
Inside Linebackers (4)
The Vikings kept four inside linebackers on their roster last year. This is easily the toughest group to forecast- at least the back end- as it could go several ways. But the Vikings adding Eric Wilson and drafting Kobe King in the sixth round and signing a few others as UDFAs suggests Ivan Pace’s and Brian Asamoah’s spots are not secure.
LB1: Blake Cashman
The only question here is Cashman’s durability. He missed some games last season, including both regular season losses, and that had an impact.
LB2: Ivan Pace Jr.
Pace’s performance in coverage fell off a cliff last season, but as a downhill linebacker in run defense or blitzing he is solid. I expect any difficulty he has in coverage will effect his snap count this season more than his place on the depth chart.
LB3: Eric Wilson
Eric Wilson may be more of a backup for Cashman than Pace, given he may be a bit better in coverage. But Wilson will also be a core special teamer and get most of his work that way.
LB4: Kobe King
King getting the green dot (defensive playcaller) for the second team defense solidifies his hold on the last linebacker spot- a backup for Ivan Pace Jr. who has the same skillset and limitation in coverage at the moment. He’ll also be a core special teamer.
Cut/Practice Squad: Austin Keys, Dorian Mausi
Austin Keys had some nice hard hitting tackles in preseason and graded reasonably well on defense and special teams, but it has always been King as he’s been with the second-team from the start of training camp.
Cornerbacks (6)
The Vikings kept six cornerbacks on their initial 53-man roster last year and I expect the same this year. I don’t have too much doubt about who makes the roster and who doesn’t in this group, but who is CB3 and CB4 is a bit of a question.
CB1/SCB1: Byron Murphy Jr.
Murphy got his extension this off-season and will start at outside cornerback. But it sounds like the Vikings may use him more frequently in the slot this season, especially against division opponents who have some top and/or skilled slot receivers.
CB2: Isaiah Rodgers
Rodgers was acquired to be the other starter at outside corner, replacing Stephon Gilmore. He should be an upgrade and I wouldn’t be surprised if he’s the best corner on the roster by the end of the season. He’s got the speed to cover the fastest receivers down the field.
CB3: Jeff Okudah
I’m not sure if Okudah will always be the first corner off the bench in nickel situations, but for now I have him there as CB3. He didn’t play against the Patriots which solidifies his getting a roster spot- his contract already had done so though. He adds a lot of value when he’s successful in press man coverage, but he’s a liability otherwise. That will be known to opposing offenses.
CB4: Mekhi Blackmon
Blackmon returns to the roster from his ACL suffered a year ago after his All-PFF rookie season. He hasn’t looked all the great so far in training camp and preseason, however. He seems more tentative and not as aggressive as I remember him as a rookie. Maybe his ACL injury has something to do with that.
CB5: Dwight McGlothern
McGlothern has faced a challenge from Zemaiah Vaughn and somehow Reddy Steward is on the depth chart as a third stringer with McGlothern despite not getting many reps on those he does get are with the third team. Anyway, McGlothern knows the defense better and may be more well rounded from a coverage scheme standpoint than Vaughn. This is another case where this spot is probably McGlothern’s to lose and he hasn’t done enough to be turned away. He’s had some good plays in training camp and some not so good, but the same is true of Vaughn.
Cut/Practice Squad: Zemaiah Vaughn, Keenan Garber, Ambry Thomas, Reddy Steward
Vaughn looks to be better in man coverage than zone, where he seems slower to react. The Vikings will continue to play more zone than man- even if they increase the amount of man coverage this year- and Vaughn didn’t show enough to leapfrog McGlothern. Keenan Garber and Ambry Thomas never really seemed like they had enough snaps other than third-team to really be a serious consideration, and Reddy Steward is just sort of a depth chart mystery who didn’t really get many snaps.
Safety (5)
It’s been a bit confusing which way the Vikings were going in regard to how many safeties and cornerbacks they will keep on the roster this season- I had them earlier going down to four safeties but now I have them keeping five, as they did last season. The reason is Tavierre Thomas has the versatility and experience to play slot corner if need be, while also being a special teams ace.
S1: Harrison Smith
Future HoFer still get first billing here, although he’s well past his prime and hasn’t participated much in training camp.
S2: Josh Metellus
I’m not sure if Metellus will get as many reps as Theo Jackson as a deep safety this season, but I put him ahead of Theo Jackson based on playing time as a starter and team captain.
S3: Theo Jackson
Jackson will likely be more of a free safety than strong safety, but they need that skill set as Metellus is more of a strong safety.
S4: Jay Ward
I’ve had my doubts about Ward, but he had some good tackles against the Patriots (and one key missed tackle) and value as a special teamer. I put him ahead of Thomas as he knows the scheme better, but I’m not sure he’ll come off the bench ahead of Thomas on defense.
S5: Tavierre Thomas
Thomas graded pretty well at safety in preseason and looked good especially in run defense although he’s graded well in coverage too in preseason games so far. Thomas will be a core special teamer and likely a gunner/vice and also has the experience and versatility to play slot corner as he did for three seasons in Houston.
Cut/Practice Squad: Kahlef Hailassie, Mishael Powell
Hailassie had some flash plays in preseason games and graded reasonably well too, but I just don’t see him displacing any of the others for a roster spot. MIshael Powell never was in the mix for a roster spot based on his place and usage in training camp and preseason games.
Special Teams (3)
Not expecting much drama here, although there is a punter competition. I expect Ryan Wright to win that competition but Oscar Chapman could be kept on the practice squad given his international status allows the Vikings to include him as an extra player.
Kicker: Will Reichard
Unopposed.
Punter/Holder: Oscar Chapman
Chapman has looked the better punter in training camp are in preseason games so far and has also been more successful lately as the holder for Will Reichard, which seemed like the main stumbling block to beating out Wright. He appears to have overcome that now and so I have him beating out Wright.
Long Snapper: Andrew DePaola
Unopposed All-Pro.
Cut/Practice Squad: Ryan Wright
Wright left a lot to be desired as a punter last season when you really dig into his stats. Chapman simply has more leg talent which makes a difference in how many punts are returned and ultimately field position.
Punt Returner: Myles Price
Price is the only one so far with a decent punt return- he had a couple against the Patriots and seems more confident in the role than Silas Bolden, who was his main competition.
Kick Returner: Myles Price
The Vikings are going with more of a dual kicker returner scheme so far in training camp and preseason to avoid having kicks land in the landing zone but go into the endzone unreturned, which means starting at the 20. I put Price as first here based on his long kick return against the Patriots and ability in the role, although I expect Tai Felton will also be back there with Price to return kickoffs. Felton had been the clear favorite, but he fumbled a kick return against the Patriots so that may have cost him being listed first as a kick returner and potentially cost him being a returner at all.
Bottom Line
The Vikings depth has improved at some position groups and there will be decent backups with potential the Vikings will cut and probably get picked up by other teams. But that’s a good problem to have. But there are also some groups where there is more uncertainty about both starters and depth- particularly the defensive secondary. The Vikings are also going to miss Jordan Addison for the first three games as his replacement is likely to a dropoff in performance.
But if this roster projection holds true, I expect the offensive line, defensive line, punter, and returners to be an upgrade over last season. Depth at running back is also improved with Jordan Mason. Quarterback of course is promising but unproven and upon that performance so much this season will hinge.
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Source: https://www.dailynorseman.com/minne...ikings-post-patriots-53-man-roster-projection
