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A new quarterback and other new personnel could result in some changes this season
We often talk about Brian Flores and his defense when we talk about
Minnesota Vikings’ schemes, but Kevin O’Connell gets a lot of praise for his play design and play calling ability too. His scheme doesn’t stand out as much as Flores’ to the naked eye, but there are particular elements and nuances that are worth outlining before getting into what may change this season given the new personnel on offense.
Elements of Kevin O’Connell’s Offense
O’Connell’s offensive scheme is a West Coast-based scheme, but that doesn’t really distinguish it from most others these days as most NFL teams use some version of the West Coast offense and the principles of that scheme.
The History Behind O’Connell’s Scheme
The West Coast offense started with
49ers Hall of Fame head coach Bill Walsh at a time in the late 70s/early 80s when the Air Coryell offense was successful in San Diego. That was a power running, deep vertical passing scheme seldom used anymore as having all the players to operate it well is demanding on the salary cap pocketbook. Walsh didn’t have the players either so instead of relying on bigger, stronger, faster players to overpower defenses, he came up with more of a finesse offense based on passing rhythm, timing, precise routes, play-action, and accurate passes. Most concepts were designed to spread the defense horizontally more than vertically, with versatile backs that could run and catch, focusing more on shorter passes to move the chains rather than deep routes. Plays were designed so when the quarterback completed his drop, the route patterns should just be hitting their breaks and receivers coming open. Quarterbacks could throw to a spot on the field in anticipation of a receiver coming open- something that requires precision, timing, and accuracy more than overwhelming size, strength, or speed.
Walsh often used the quick passing game to substitute for running plays with relatively simple route combinations that created an ‘either-or’ situation for a defender in flat coverage off of a three-step quarterback drop. The quarterback would target whichever receiver wasn’t targeted by the flat defender, leading to relatively easy short completions but also opportunities for yards-after-catch which was a emphasized by Walsh. Walsh’s scheme revolutionized the NFL and led to a decade-long dynasty for the 49ers.
In the 1990s Mike Shanahan, who was offensive coordinator under Bill Walsh’s offensive coordinator and successor as 49ers head coach George Seifert, introduced the zone blocking scheme developed by his offensive line coach Alex Gibbs. Gibbs and Shanahan pioneered the wide zone rushing scheme that remains a popular element in the West Coast offense. In keeping with the West Coast offense theme of stretching a defense horizontally using finesse rather than overwhelming power or speed, the wide zone running scheme uses zone blocking principles of moving defenders horizontally to create seams for the running back to exploit, and in the case of wide zone, particularly outside the tackles.
Shanahan also added more use of crossing routes as a staple of his route concepts, often with receivers crossing the field at short, intermediate, and deep depths. Crossing routes are often difficult to cover in man coverage, but further variations were designed to beat various zone coverages as well.
More recently in the 2010s, Sean McVay developed as an offensive coach under Mike Shanahan in Washington and later became head coach of the Rams. McVay updated the West Coast offense run by Shanahan by mixing in duo run plays, which are a form of power or gap running scheme where offensive linemen double-team defenders to displace them and then move to the second level. These duo running plays were meant to complement the outside zone running plays by forcing defenses to account for both wide zone runs and power runs between the tackles. These also help to set up play-action passes.
McVay and Kyle Shanahan, son of Mike Shanahan, are also credited as being pioneers in the use of pre-snap motion in West Coast offensive schemes. The use of pre-snap motion is meant to help reveal the defensive play call, create more favorable blocking angles, and/or create mismatches that favor the offense.
McVay also uses variable personnel groupings to disguise the same route combinations, making it more difficult for defenses to predict the play call and creating, “an illusion of complexity” for defenses around what are fairly simple play concepts.
It was during this time that the ‘dagger’ route concept became more widely used and is often attributed to Kyle Shanahan and McVay. The route pattern combines a deep in-breaking route with a vertical route to clear out a safety and a shallow crossing route to occupy the underneath defenders, leaving a window for the deep in-breaking route. Andy Reid, also from the Bill Walsh coaching tree, is also widely acknowledged to be a pioneer in crossing route mesh concepts and hi-low concepts in his version of the West Coast offense since he arrived in Kansas City.
Overall, McVay’s additions to the West Coast offense were designed to help the offense dictate the pace of play, maintain ball control, keep opposing defenses off-balance, and respond to new defensive schemes.
Kevin O’Connell’s West Coast Offense
McVay’s version of the West Coast offense is the one O’Connell learned as offensive coordinator under McVay from 2020-2021 and brought with him to Minnesota. It started with Bill Walsh and went through George Seifert, Mike Shanahan, and Sean McVay with some other influences along the way.
Kevin O’Connell’s Run Scheme
In the run game, O’Connell runs primarily outside zone and duo schemes, just like McVay has done. O’Connell also ran a fair amount of inside zone with success. However, other power runs and counters he ran infrequently were generally not as productive.
Above is a successful outside zone run the Vikings ran against the
Packers week four last season. Left guard Blake Brandel was able to get enough of an angle on the defensive tackle while tight end Johnny Mundt motioned and had a successful block on the defensive end and left tackle Christian Darrisaw took out the linebacker, leading to a big gain.
The inside zone run above was one of the more successful run play types for the Vikings last season. On this play, the Bears’ defensive linemen help out quite a bit by taking inside moves that effectively take them out of the play with just a little push by the Vikings offensive linemen. Left tackle David Quessenberry was able to get to the second level to take out the middle linebacker while fullback C.J. Ham took out the other linebacker on that side, leaving a big gap for Cam Akers to exploit after cutting back.
This Duo run above against the 49ers was modestly successful most of the time last season for the Vikings but also produced some explosive plays on occasion. Here center Garrett Bradbury and left guard Blake Brandel double team one defensive tackle while Ed Ingram and Brian O’Neil do the same with the other one. Brandel is able to slide off his initial block and get just enough of the linebacker to allow Ty Chandler to get by, while Christian Darrisaw takes his man out of the play and linebacker #54 Fred Warner misses the run fit, leading to an explosive run for Chandler.
Kevin O’Connell’s Passing Scheme
O’Connell’s passing scheme is based around the deep crossing route, often run by Justin Jefferson. There are various other clear-out routes packaged together with the deep crosser, and usually a short route(s) of some variety as a check down, but O’Connell likes to get at least four receivers out on routes to create options, distractions and either-or coverage choices for defenders intended to free up his preferred target, which is often Justin Jefferson. And he’s very good at doing so.
O’Connell uses variations of all the West Coast route concepts previously mentioned, but his genius as a play designer is in tweaking routes to achieve the desired effect against any type of coverage a defense throws at him. That starts with understanding what rules a given coverage scheme may have for a given route or route combination, then designing route patterns to exploit those rules or create conflict for a particular defender that open a passing window for the preferred target and give that receiver an advantage over his defender his quarterback can then exploit.
O’Connell also uses pre-snap motion to create matchup advantages and more recently an increase in the use of short motion. This is when an outside receiver such as Justin Jefferson motions inside the slot receiver next to him, or vice versa, which can change the matchup and compromise the preferred leverage the defenders use on the receivers involved. It can also create a bit of confusion among the defenders that can result in a blown assignment if they don’t communicate effectively. Short motion could also be as simple as a tight end adjusting his split from the offensive line to try to give him a leverage advantage for his intended route.
O’Connell also tweaks certain routes so that against a particular coverage scheme, it helps open a passing window or better draw a defender away from the intended target. This might involve adjusting the depth at which a receiver makes his break or adjusting the route angle or having a motioning receiver block the outside man for an instant to better sell a run on play action before starting his route. There are all sorts of nuances like that O’Connell employs to complicate and exploit defensive scheme rules and leverages to help his players succeed. And on top of that, O’Connell gives Jefferson the freedom to
‘flavor’ his routes to create some nuance to confuse defenders without compromising the route timing.
O’Connell is also aware of the gravitational pull a star like Jefferson has on defenders and can also use that to free up other receivers - often in an ‘either-or’ situation where a defender must choose between doubling Jefferson and potentially creating a leverage advantage for another receiver that could be exploited or leaving Jefferson in single coverage...
All this is illustrated in some of the plays O’Connell ran last season.
This first play-action crossing route is a more basic one O’Connell ran last season. In week three against the
Texans playing Cover-3, Justin Jefferson (#18) runs a deep crossing or over route, while Jalen Nailor (#83) runs a vertical clearing route on the opposite side and beats the cornerback drawing the middle safety. Josh Oliver (#84) runs a flat route after chipping Danielle Hunter (#55) that draws the strong safety while Johnny Mundt (#86) runs a crossing route with a stop to hold the linebacker. This leaves Justin Jefferson wide open as the cornerback on his side playing off coverage with outside leverage and a cushion has no chance of defending Jefferson on that route. The Texans reacted to that play as anticipated by the play design, given their coverage rules.
The above is a wave route concept Kevin O’Connell used with success last season. A wave concept involves two front side clearing routes making space for a crossing route. In this case, the Lions look to be in Cover-2 man coverage. Jordan Addison (#3) runs a deep crossing route on the top side that takes both the cornerback and safety with him while Justin Jefferson runs an out route below. Brandon Powell (#4) then runs a short crosser after making a chip block, taking the nickel defender with him and freeing up the throwing lane to Aaron Jones (#33) running another crosser with a linebacker in man coverage- a matchup Jones should win most of the time. You can see that the Lions’ safeties were focused on Addison and Jefferson- not unusual- leaving an opportunity for another receiver in single coverage to win his matchup and get the target. This concept is designed for that purpose and gives the Vikings a matchup advantage as few linebackers in the league can keep up with a running back like Jones on a crossing route in man coverage.
This play above is a Dagger concept- a staple in modern West Coast offenses these days. This concept involves a deep (usually) dig or rounded in route, a vertical clearing route, and a shallow route on the same side to draw or grab the underneath coverage, opening up the throwing lane for the dig route.
In this case Jordan Addison in the slot runs a deep vertical clearing route, taking the cornerback Sauce Gardner (#1) with him while Justin Jefferson runs the dig route. This concept depends on the receiver running the dig route to beat his defender and Jefferson is probably the best dig route runner in the league. Josh Oliver also runs a shallow cross that holds the linebacker from getting more depth, and Darnold steps up and makes the throw.
But the down and distance and play selection here is key too. It’s first-and-ten from the Vikings’ 31-yard line- the start of a drive. The Vikings use a double tight end set to the boundary side so the defense may think it’s a good chance for a run play. The Vikings go play-action instead with the Dagger concept and it produces a nice gain- as it did about half the time on first and ten when it was called the most often last season.
Another staple in O’Connell’s strain of West Coast offense is the Keeper concept, which is a play-action rollout with typically a short, intermediate, and deep crossing route.
In this case, the Vikings have a 1st-and-10 from the Falcons’ 43 in week 13- 4th quarter with 4:06 remaining and a 35-21 lead. The Vikings are in a heavy 22-personnel (RB-FB-2 TEs), suggesting a run play. They run a play-action keeper instead, with C.J. Ham running a slice route from behind the line, Jefferson an intermediate crossing route and Johnny Mundt a deep comeback route. Josh Oliver chip blocks and then runs a shallow flat route that Darnold targets and Oliver turns it into a big gain with yards after the catch.
This was one of the more successful Keeper concept plays for the Vikings last season as they had difficulty at times blocking it and
This last route concept I’ll detail is a deep comeback, which works as a complement to the dagger route as it keeps the defensive backs guessing at routes. This concept involves a deep comeback or out route with a shallow route on the same side to draw the underneath defender from getting depth and a deep dig or comeback route on the other side depending on the personnel grouping.
In this case against the Rams in the Wildcard game, the Rams look to be in quarters coverage on one side and half coverage on the other side. Justin Jefferson runs the deep comeback on the half side and the cornerback passes him off to the safety and covers the flat route by tight end Josh Oliver. Jordan Addison runs a dig route on the other side while C.J. Ham runs a short hook route. The safety responsible for covering Jefferson gets turned around leading to a big gain.
In addition to these route concepts detailed above, O’Connell also runs other common West Coast offense route patterns like Stick-Hitch, Smash, and Omaha.
What’s Next for Kevin O’Connell’s Offense
It’s unlikely Kevin O’Connell is going to make material changes to his scheme this season, despite having a new quarterback, three interior offensive linemen, and second running back. Instead, I suspect the emphasis will be mostly on improving his existing scheme, although that will include some tweaks and some play calling changes.
J.J. McCarthy-Related Changes
Having a new starting quarterback in J.J. McCarthy will undoubtedly result in some changes, as O’Connell works with him to identify play strengths and weaknesses and McCarthy also makes his play preferences known. O’Connell did this with Kirk Cousins and Sam Darnold as well. It’s a work in progress that gets tweaked over the course of a season on something of a trial-and-error basis.
But one piece of conventional wisdom about starting young McCarthy is that O’Connell will make it easier on him by running the ball more. I don’t see that happening, at least not much. O’Connell has said this offseason that he would like to run the ball more- and be more effective in doing so, particularly in the red zone, but I don’t see that leading to a material increase in run play percentage. Last season the Vikings ran the ball 42.58% of the time and I would be surprised if it didn’t stay in the 40-45% range again this season.
Down-and-distance and game situation often dictate play selection and if those factors say pass, then Kevin O’Connell will call a pass play. Arguably the best talent and proficiency for the Vikings’ offense is leveraged when passing the ball and to short-change that by running more is likely to be counter-productive. It’s a passing league after all and passing plays are more productive on average than running plays.
If McCarthy has some rookie struggles in the pass game, I expect O’Connell to do what he did with Darnold last season. It’s easy to forget that the Vikings’ offense started the game against the Giants week one with a run stuff, a sack, and then a completion to C.J. Ham that he fumbled and resulted in a turnover. Darnold seemed to be a bit unnerved by all that and so on the first pass of his second series O’Connell called an easy pass play where all receivers ran clear out routes and then blocked for a shallow crosser Darnold hit to get him on track. That seemed to settle him down and he later got into a rhythm. O’Connell could do the same if McCarthy struggles and needs a completion to get him back on track.
Taking the ball out of McCarthy’s hands by running it more often whenever he struggles passing the ball would also be something of a confidence killer for both McCarthy and the offense in general. An NFL team that runs the ball as much as Michigan did when McCarthy was there isn’t going to win a lot of games. That’s the reality. And Kevin O’Connell isn’t Jim Harbaugh. So running the ball more to protect McCarthy isn’t going to help win football games. Kevin O’Connell knows that and really doesn’t have a conservative track record as a play caller either. And after Kirk Cousins went down in 2023, O’Connell didn’t significantly alter his run/pass play calling mix despite starting struggling backups to replace Cousins.
The other thing about McCarthy that argues for mostly continuity in scheme is first that McCarthy has had a year to get up to speed on O’Connell’s scheme and he has. Secondly, he ran a pro-style offense in Michigan that ran a lot of the same route concepts that O’Connell does, giving McCarthy experience with full field reads and progressions. He may not have passed as much as other first-round quarterbacks in the 2024 draft, but his experience doing so may have been more relevant to transitioning to the NFL than some others.
There may be some plays that McCarthy struggles with more than others for one reason or another and hopefully O’Connell and McCarthy can work through those issues in the lead up to the regular season and either make adjustments or remove the play from the call sheet- just as O’Connell did with Darnold and Cousins.
What’s Next for O’Connell’s Rushing Scheme
I expect O’Connell to maintain a mix of outside/mid/inside zone runs with primarily duo gap scheme runs. However, the additions of Donovan Jackson, Ryan Kelly, and Will Fries weren’t just to improve pass protection. Together with the addition of Jordan Mason, I expect the Vikings to make a push toward being more effective running inside the tackles. The new interior linemen should help the Vikings be more effective in that regard, as all three are generally better at holding blocks better than their predecessors, but they need to get used to playing together along with Brian O’Neill and Christian Darrisaw and being assignment sound.
Being more effective between the tackles will help open up other facets of O’Connell’s offense, from the outside zone run to the passing game and play-action. It could lead to fewer two-high safety coverage shells, fewer wide-9 edge rusher alignments, and linebackers that are more apt to bite on play-action.
While there are some running plays that O’Connell needs to reassess with the new personnel to see if they are a good fit, I could see traps being a nice complement to zone and duo runs that could be effective this season with the new personnel.
The Vikings were relatively effective on long traps last season, although they didn’t run them a lot. A long trap is where a guard pulls to ‘trap’ or block the defensive end/edge rather than the interior tackle, which is a normal trap run, while the rest of the line down blocks for the most part and the uncovered linemen work to the second level to typically take out a linebacker. Both Will Fries and Donovan Jackson have the athleticism to be effective pullers and are good at second-level blocking as well. Often, depending on the defensive alignment, whichever guard does not pull ends up uncovered and pursues the second-level block.
Above is a long trap play O’Connell ran last season against the Colts. There is a bit of a comic element to this play as Blake Brandel (#64), who pulls on this play, completely whiffs on the edge rusher but at least he impedes his path to the hole enough that Cam Akers (#27) beats him to it while Ed Ingram (#67) does a nice job taking out the linebacker on the second level and Josh Oliver (#84) is effective doing the same.
This is hardly new or innovative, but something that can complement other runs the Vikings use and is something current personnel can do well.
Offensive Coordinator Wes Phillips was asked during his
7/25 press conference about the vision for the run game this season compared to last season and whether they were revamping it or not really. His answer was that they made big investments in the interior offensive line and in running back Jordan Mason. He went on to say that they think they are improved up front and noticeably bigger. Of course Phillips would not reveal anything specific in terms of plays or scheme for opposing teams to learn, but the fact that he didn’t mention any changes at all along those lines suggests that isn’t a key part of improving their ground game this season.
I suspect the main focus leading up to the start of the regular season is getting the three new linemen and Jordan Mason up to speed on the scheme and learning what run plays they are best suited to execute well. As a result of that, there may be a somewhat different mix of run play calls than last season, but nothing to materially alter the run scheme from a season ago.
However, last season Aaron Jones received the bulk of the carries with relatively small contributions from Cam Akers and Ty Chandler. This season it looks to be a more evenly split rotation between Jones and Jordan Mason. My guess is something close to a 60/40 split.
What’s Next for O’Connell’s Passing Offense
While I don’t expect major changes to O’Connell’s passing scheme based on J.J. McCarthy being the new quarterback, I would expect a different mix of plays that are best suited to McCarthy and for McCarthy to make some different choices on the plays that are called compared to Sam Darnold or Kirk Cousins.
For example, McCarthy has shown in the past that he isn’t afraid to take deep shots. On some of those deep or high crossing routes detailed above that include a vertical clearing route, I wouldn’t be surprised to see McCarthy target the vertical clearing route more often than his predecessors. That seems to be in his DNA a bit. However, in Friday’s training camp he threw an interception intended for Jordan Addison on a double-move vertical route- who was impeded in his route by a defender. According to Kevin O’Connell, McCarthy waited on Addison’s route a bit too long and the timing was off leading to the interception. He could have moved on from that route earlier and targeted Jalen Nailor who was open on a crossing route instead. O’Connell called that a teaching point that he’ll go over with McCarthy, but from O’Connell’s comments McCarthy already understood his mistake. Such teaching points for a young quarterback is the stuff training camp is meant for. We’ll see how those teaching points affect McCarthy’s decision-making in the regular season, but I wouldn’t be surprised if he targets deep routes at least as often as his predecessors. And McCarthy is likely to have just a bit more time to wait on those routes than his predecessors too.
O’Connell is also likely to have a package of relatively easy reads on high percentage passing plays he can dip into as needed at moments where McCarthy is struggling and just needs a completion or two to get him back on track. A bunch of vertical clearing routes to open up a short crosser, for example.
I also expect O’Connell to experiment with the Keeper series (QB rollouts) given McCarthy’s mobility and see how he does with those plays. They can provide some enhanced downfield vision for McCarthy if they are blocked properly and McCarthy is able to throw well on the run. I don’t get the impression that those were a favorite with Sam Darnold, although O’Connell still ran them occasionally, but we’ll see how McCarthy responds.
It will also be interesting to see how the Vikings’ screen game is this season with the new personnel. That is something the Vikings have struggled with in recent years although it improved some last season. We’ll see how well the new offensive linemen are getting out and blocking in space, but there could be some improvement there.
A Bigger Role for Josh Oliver?
Looking back at the 2024 season and Josh Oliver’s snaps on passing plays, it’s difficult to find a more assignment sound player on the team or a player that had more varied assignments. He might be asked to block an edge rusher by himself, or he might be asked to run a deep vertical route, or chip block then run a hook or flat route. But whatever he did, he did well and was remarkably consistent. He’s wasn’t a flashy player, but when it comes to the mantra ‘just do your job,’ it’s difficult to find another player who did that as well as Oliver.
At the end of last season, Brian O’Neill was asked which player was the most underappreciated or underrated by fans and he named Josh Oliver. Looking back on his performance last season- often in little noticed roles- you can see why. You can also see why the Vikings extended him this off-season on a 3-year, $23.25 million deal- something that came as a bit of a surprise to most fans. That makes him the 11th-highest paid player on the team in AAV (average annual value) and the second-highest paid TE2 in the league.
Oliver was an ancillary target at best as a receiver last season for the Vikings, but many times Oliver was open had Darnold decided to target him and a couple of those he should have for big gains. Despite that, Oliver still made the most of the targets he got. Among Vikings’ receivers (TE, WR) last season, Oliver had the:
- Most YAC per reception (6.1)
- Highest reception percentage, including no drops (85.2%)
- Highest QB passer rating when targeted (144.3)
- Fourth-most yards per reception after Jefferson, Nailor, and Addison (11.4)
- Fourth-most yards/route run after Jefferson, Addison, and Hockenson (1.36)
- Most touchdowns (3) and red-zone EPA (5.52) among tight ends
There was also a five-game stretch last season between weeks 8-14 when Oliver had the second-most yards per route run (2.74) and the third-highest PFF receiving grade (86.2) among tight-ends with at least ten targets in the league.
This is from a blocking tight end who was often ignored as a receiver.
Oliver was also the fourth-highest PFF graded run blocking tight end in the league last season and allowed a grand total of one pressure in pass protection. He was also the third-highest PFF graded run blocker on the team after Christain Darrisaw and Brian O’Neill.
It would be interesting to see what the Vikings’ EPA or DVOA per play with Oliver on the field last season compared to when he wasn’t on the field, but I suspect there is a noticeable difference that the Vikings may be aware of and leads to a bigger role for Oliver this season.
Oliver played 48% of the snaps last season. That was the most among Vikings’ tight-ends due to the injury to T.J. Hockenson. But Johnny Mundt also played 38% of the offensive snaps last season and he is no longer with the team. It’s unlikely another tight end will get many snaps for the Vikings this season, so Oliver could end up with 50 more snaps this season if Hockenson plays around 850, which would be normal for him in a healthy season, and the Vikings use the same percentage of offensive personnel groupings.
It’s worth noting, however, that while the Vikings used 12 personnel (1 RB, 2 TEs) around 25% of the time last season, they were tied for the 3rd-highest EPA/pass in that formation (0.34). They were also fourth in yards per play and second in successful play rate out of 12 personnel last season. This was also the Vikings’ most productive main personnel group (11, 12, 21) on an EPA/play basis by a wide margin. That could lead to an increased use of 12 personnel and more snaps for Oliver. C.J. Ham also had 277 offensive snaps last season and it’s unclear if the Vikings will continue to use him at the same clip or not. He’s not as good a run blocker or receiver as Oliver, but some lead runs the Vikings use would need Ham to lead block. Duo lead was relatively successful for the Vikings last season but outside zone lead was not.
PFF also
highlighted the Vikings as one of the best teams built for success in 12 personnel this season. That makes sense given the Vikings’ success in the formation last season, the fact that they have arguably the best tight-end duo in the league in T.J. Hockenson and Josh Oliver, an improved offensive line and second running back in Jordan Mason. All while still having one of the best wide receiver duos in the league on the field in Justin Jefferson and Jordan Addison.
Bottom Line
Kevin O’Connell will continue to tailor his scheme to suit the strengths of his personnel and tweak it so it doesn’t become too predictable or stale. He’s got a lot of versatile skill players to work with and an improved offensive line that can provide better pass protection and run blocking up front, so there really aren’t many personnel limitations to what he can do as a play designer.
The key will be bringing along J.J. McCarthy so he is comfortable with all the plays on the call sheet and continuing to design plays that make it easier for quarterbacks- including a young quarterback in McCarthy- to make easy progressions and quick decisions while keeping opposing defenses off-balance.
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