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All of your favorites here to preview another magical Twins season.
Welcome to Opening Day! As always, we will have our game thread up this afternoon to make predictions about the rest of the season based off a single game, but now you can read our predictions before a single game is played. All your favorite Twinkie Town writers have pitched in their thoughts. Leave yours as well!
Who will be the Twins’ best hitter in 2025?
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Ben Jones: Everyone who answered this question below is a coward except for Matt (just kidding everyone, go C4). Byron Buxton and Matt Wallner tie for the best wRC+ on the team but Byron’s defense puts him ahead by WAR and he finishes second in AL MVP voting behind Julio Rodriguez.
Zach Koenig: Carlos Correa—I still think he is the best overall hitting talent on this roster.
John Foley: It needs to be Carlos Correa, but with more volume than he’s been able to provide the past two seasons. Correa was excellent last season (155 wRC+), but in only 86 games. If the Twins are going to compete for the AL Central in 2025, getting strong production and availability from Correa will be a key factor.
Tawny Jarvi: Whichever of Buxton/Lewis/Correa is allowed to have bones this year. I’m gonna go with Correa.
Jonathan Gamble: I’m predicting a healthy season from Carlos Correa where he returns to his 2022 form and leads the Twins’ offensive attack.
Matt Monitto: Ryan Jeffers comeback season.
Brandon Brooks: By raw OPS alone, it’s Matt Wallner’s time to shine, although Carlos Correa’s more well-rounded profile will make him the team leader in WAR as well as the only Twins hitter at the All-Star Game.
Who will be the Twins’ best pitcher in 2025?
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Zach Koenig: Pablo Lopez. Joe Ryan may take some time to knock the rust off from last year and I’m just not sure Big Bailey will ever have the A-1 ace ceiling like Pablo has shown.
John Foley: Joe Ryan will continue his ascent to the front of the Twins’ rotation. Like Correa, Ryan was excellent (3.44 FIP) in 135 innings last season. Moreover, how he got there
showed important signs of growth, including more confidence and trust in using his secondary pitches and the addition of a sinker to run into the hands of right-handed batters for weak contact. All the pieces are there for Ryan to deliver a ~5 win season.
Tawny Jarvi: I’m a Joe Ryan believer. This is mostly a vibes based pick, but I always feel like he’s on the precipice of taking it to a new level.
Jonathan Gamble: If Joe Ryan can stay healthy, I think he’ll take the next step and surpass Pablo Lopez as the ace of the staff. Bailey Ober doesn’t have the upside that either of those guys have, but watch out for him to potentially put up the best numbers on the staff if he takes a step forward with his consistency.
Matt Monitto: Time for everyone to learn Bailey Ober’s name...
Brandon Brooks: This strikes me as the potential career year for a healthy Joe Ryan. I do think we will see some positive regression from Pablo, as well as high potential out of the pen, but it feels like the time for Joe to realize his ceiling and put together six months of excellence.
Ben Jones: We once again have a strong consensus on this question, but I’ll break with the others and say Pablo Lopez. Historically a slow starter, this year he’s off to the races from the jump.
Who will be their breakout star?
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Zach Koenig: This might be more “me really REALLY wanting it to happen”, but I’ll go with Matt Wallner hitting 35+ home runs and avoiding the unplayable whiff stretches.
John Foley: I expect Louis Varland to acclimate well to a high-leverage relief role, and there are few things fans love more than a new lock-down reliever.
Tawny Jarvi: Wallner might be a cop out choice, but he’s probably the most likely Twin to evolve into a player talked about on the national stage.
Jonathan Gamble: Matt Wallner very quietly had nearly a .900 OPS in 2024, but he was very streaky. A step forward with his consistency, and he could make some headlines.
Matt Monitto: ...and how to spell Simeon Woods Richardson’s. (No hyphens, people)
Brandon Brooks: As perhaps the foremost Julien truther on the staff, I think we could see Eddy make all the necessary adjustments from a difficult 2024 and become an /r/baseball darling if they remember the Twins exist.
Ben Jones: Who am I to argue with Rocco Baldelli who called
Wallner one of the five best hitters in baseball?
Who will be the Twins’ second best reliever?
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Note: this question assumes Griffin Jax will be number one, but will Duran’s diminished velocity/stuff allow him to still be in the upper tier or will someone else surpass him?
Zach Koenig: I’ll stick with Duran and hope he can learn to “make do with 98-100” as opposed to be old max-effort 104 or bust.
Ben Jones: I think we’re all forgetting how strong Cole Sands looked last year. I think Duran’s demise is overblown, but he needs some time to figure out how to get his curveball back to 2023 levels.
John Foley: Jhoan Duran. A bit lost last season was that Duran dealt with some misfortune in small samples, in addition to the early season injury and
potentially related mechanical issues. His .321 batting average allowed on balls in play (BABIP) was elevated, and his strand rate was just 61.5%. At the same time, he cut down on the walks that plagued him in 2023 and kept the ball on the ground. He might not quite be the overwhelming force that he was as a rookie, but the implications about Duran beginning to decline seem premature to me.
Tawny Jarvi: Louie Varland. He’ll do it quietly and no one will realize he was the second best until we start writing “was Louie Varland the second best reliever for the Twins????” think pieces in like January.
Jonathan Gamble: I believe in Duran, even if his velocity doesn’t quite rebound. He’s still a flamethrower and he’s gotten by on pure stuff to this point; I expect him to come into this season with a more refined approach on the rubber.
Matt Monitto: Let’s go with Danny Coulombe and the lefty love.
Brandon Brooks: This is Duran’s to lose, and I think he will calm some heads by returning to action with a slightly adjusted pitch mix.
What will be the Twins’ final record?
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Zach Koenig: 79-83; I’m really nervous and discouraged by the ownership inactivity and the injuries piling up already. Plus, I’m higher on the upside with the Tigers & Royals than the projection systems.
John Foley: 85-77
Tawny Jarvi: It’s hard to feel like good things can happen on this earth, and the Pohlads still owning the team combined with trying to pick our most “impactful” roster addition feeling like trying to pick my favorite brand of bran flake isn’t doing my pessimist brain any favors. Still, I’ll try force out a little positivity. 83 Wins. 83 Wins is all I can spare for you.
Jonathan Gamble: 88-74
Matt Monitto: Starship’s
No Protection, 12” vinyl. (83-79, but somehow a Wild Card spot)
Brandon Brooks: 89 wins. Will that be enough for the division? Something tells me no, and that the predictions for four teams congregating around 85 wins will not bear out. I do think this division will produce a champion with greater than 92 wins, though I don’t think that stands to be us.
Ben Jones: 90-71. You may realize that doesn’t add up to 162 but you’ll have to wait for my bold prediction to hear the rest.
Predict the final AL Central standings
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Ben Jones: Twins, Tigers, Royals,
White Sox, Guardians
This Cleveland lineup is one Jose Ramirez injury away from being White Sox-esque. The rotation is sneakily bad behind Tanner Bibee and the remnants of Gavin Williams’ UCL. Emmanuel Clase was incredibly lucky last year. Also they traded their second- and third-best position players essentially nothing. If the Guardians have no haters, I’m dead.
Zach Koenig: Detroit, Kansas City, Cleveland, Minnesota, Chicago
John Foley: Guardians 88-74; Royals 86-76; Twins 85-77; Tigers 83-79; White Sox 51-101
Tawny Jarvi: 1st place: Royals. They seem very strong this year. 2nd place: Twins. 3rd place: Guardians. You literally can not count them out any season. 4th place: Tigers, but only because I forgot about them until now. 5th Place: White Sox because you all know why. AL Central is gonna be really strong and the difference between the top four will probably be very thin, and I bet we’ll see 3 AL Central teams in the playoffs.
Jonathan Gamble: Twins, Royals, Guardians, Tigers, White Sox
Matt Monitto: Royals-Twins-Guardians-Tigers-White Sox
Brandon Brooks: Guardians, Twins, Royals, Tigers. The Twins will manage to sneak into the sixth seed as the only Wild Card from the division. None of the sexy Royals/Tigers picks will bear much fruit and both teams will be “hurt” by nonlinear development. The White Sox will also be present.
Bold prediction time!
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Zach Koenig: In May, my two brothers and I are going to Seattle to see Twins/Mariners. Then, we are venturing into Canada to see the town (Hope, BC) where large parts of First Blood were filmed. After we cross the border, a USA/CAN skirmish breaks out and we have to fight our way back into America Rambo-style (ironically).
John Foley: Bailey Ober is recognized as an All Star.
Ben Jones: The Twins end with 161 games played because of a cancelation vs the Tigers which ends up deciding the division. MLB tries to reschedule that game for the end of the season a la
Mets-Braves last year, but Javy Baez accidentally injured so many Tigers (via thrown bats after strikeouts, of course) that they can’t field a full team. No clue why the initial game got canceled though. What do you think I am, a fortune teller???
Jonathan Gamble: The Twins will shatter the modern-day HBP record. Willi Castro, Matt Wallner, and Ryan Jeffers led the team to the franchise record last season; the addition of Ty France will push this team past the 116 HBP’s of the 2024 Mariners. France holds the individual Seattle franchise record.
Matt Monitto: During a 17-2 loss on a gray afternoon in late May, Joe Pohlad insists on pinch-hitting. He gets beaned, forgets why he wants to run the team, and sells the club the next day.
Brandon Brooks: Enamored by his petting zoo experience, Edouard Julien is dubbed “The Llama” by Ryan Jeffers and begins spitting and sticking his tongue out during home run trots. In mid-May he accidentally bites down while rounding third and misses 12 games.
James Fillmore: By the July break, the Twins will be just below .500 and eight games out of first. There will be calls for Rocco’s head, and massive clubhouse infighting; at one point, frustrated at Royce Lewis’s reputation as a party animal, new hitting coach Nick Punto will take a swing at Royce and miss... clocking broadcaster Justin Morneau
in the face.
But then Derek Falvey, desperate to save his job, will make a daring signing that invigorates this season and leads the team to a pennant.
You know who it will be, don’t you. DON’T YOU?
It’ll be Air Bud. Because there ain’t no rules says a dog can’t play baseball.
Count on it.