After one of the most thrilling regular season finales ever, the Houston Texans have found their wildcard opponent in the 2025 NFL Playoffs: the Pittsburgh Steelers. For many Texans fans, this was the preferred matchup of all opponents in the playoffs since the Steelers seem to be the most compromised team, squeaking into the postseason via a missed field goal as time expired. But, for me, this matchup is uniquely difficult, given that I am a Texans fan living deep in the middle of Steelers country. I’ve grown up in Steelers country, my entire family supports the Steelers, and I grew up with them as my childhood team. Now, the team that I fell in love with in college and have been covering for years is going to be facing my childhood team in the playoffs? In a community full of ride-or-die fans, how is a displaced, somewhat polyamorous Texans fan supposed to manage?
Well, by writing a preview post, of course! I’ve consumed every Texans and Steelers game of the 2025 season, so why not use this opportunity to see how they stack up against each other?
Between the Ravens and the Steelers, despite my personal connections to them, I believe the Steelers are the preferred opponent for Houston to face, and for reasons we all witnessed in that Sunday Night Classic. The Steelers aren’t exceptionally good at running nor passing, and have had to rely heavily on field goals and turnovers to tilt the game in their favor. They relied on third and long completions, penalties, and a big game from DT Cameron Heyward to keep Baltimore’s offense down, and they still needed a field goal to veer wide right as time expired to win the game. In an odd sort of way, the Steelers are the 2025 Houston Texans, but without the great defense. So, how do the Texans really stack up to them? Well, let’s start with Houston’s offense:
OFFENSE:
Next week, the Texans offense will have the pleasure of facing a menacing front seven that will remind them very much of their own defense, but without the multitudes of ball-hawks in the backfield to scare QB CJ Stroud. Pittsburgh’s #1 CB, Joey Porter Jr. is a decent and lanky defender that should have some success covering Texans WR Nico Collins, but after him…the depth falls off quickly. The only CBs left on the team after Porter are James Pierre and Asante Samuel Jr., who have both had multiple games they’d rather forget about while on the Steelers. Pierre has improved down the stretch, but when Stroud drops back to pass, he should find an open Jayden Higgins, Jaylin Noel, or Dalton Schultz on almost every attempt. At some point or another, either Porter, Pierre, or NB Brandin Echols is going to leave someone wide open downfield, and all Stroud will have to do is stay upright long enough to make the throw.
At safety, where Jalen Ramsey and Kyle Dugger claim the starting spots, things will be a little more interesting. Dugger was a mid-season acquisition from the New England Patriots, filling in for the injured S DeShon Elliott and excelling on the Steelers with his reckless approach to the game. Although, Dugger isn’t quite the do-it-all secondary player: that honor belongs to Ramsey, who’s ranginess and instinct for the ball has made him Pittsburgh’s version of Jalen Pitre. Stroud avoided throwing toward Ramsey in their lone previous meeting in 2024, when he was a safety for the Miami Dolphins, and I’m curious how Stroud will handle him this year on a new team. Ramsey (and multiple other Steelers DBs) have made a nasty habit of paying too much attention to the line of scrimmage and letting opposing receivers find massive gaps in coverage behind them, which is exactly what almost cost Pittsburgh the game against Baltimore. No doubt, Texans offensive coordinator Nick Caley and the offensive staff noticed those long completions to Ravens WR Zay Flowers, so I’ll be expecting Stroud to dial up a few long passes to Nico Collins or Jaylin Noel – maybe in play-action – where they’ll hope to catch Ramsey sleeping.
At linebacker is where Houston will find the Steelers’ weakest spot on defense. Starting linebackers Patrick Queen, Payton Wilson, and Malik Harrison have all struggled to carry the torch of Pittsburgh’s most cherished position. Wilson has been caught flat-footed against the run and pass so often that Malik Harrison has taken snaps from him, who hasn’t been much of an improvement. But, the leader of the group, Patrick Queen, takes the cake by having his worst season in Pittsburgh and as a pro. Missed tackles have haunted him all season long, although the Steelers fans I’m surrounded by cry out Queen’s name in despair not because of missed tackles, but because he seems to always be out of place or behind the action. He’s deeply unreliable in coverage and too slow to make up for mistakes, and that can kill an otherwise solid front seven. Now, Queen has been responsible for a few impressive tackles when he’s hit the right gap at the right time, but those moments are few and far between, which should have Woody Marks and Nick Chubb salivating.
But, if Nick Caley and the Houston offense have any hope of establishing a rhythm, they’ll first have to run through Pittsburgh’s beefy defensive front. Led by longtime stars Cameron Heyward and OLB TJ Watt, the Steelers d-line has smashed and bashed its way to another sack-filled season, finishing fifth in the NFL this regular season with 48 sacks (Texans: tied-sixth with 47) and ninth in tackles-for-loss with 89 (Texans: fifth with 91). Behind Heyward and Watt is a new generation of tenacious pass-rushers finally coming into their own: OLBs Alex Highsmith and Nick Herbig (who lead the team with 9.5 and 7.5 sacks, respectively), DT Keeanu Benton, and rookie DT Derrick Harmon. They’ve been able to pressure the opposing quarterback nearly every game this season, so Texans RT Trent Brown and LT Aireontae Ersery will have their hands full keeping Stroud clean. Houston may try to avoid this rush by handing the ball off to their tailback, but, if their name isn’t James Cook, Chase Brown, or Derrick Henry, they likely won’t get far. Simply put, this won’t be easy for CJ Stroud, and it can ugly in a hurry if he allows the pass rush to throw off his timing or accuracy. Hopefully, Texans RG Ed Ingram and LG Tytus Howard will able to scrounge up some rushing lanes in the middle to give the Texans some ground game to operate off of, but it’s not coming to come easy.
DeMeco Ryans on Woody Marks' ability to close out the game with a first down run on an injured foot.
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— Seth Payne (@SethCPayne)
December 1, 2025
Like the Texans, the Steelers defense thrives off of turnovers, so protecting the football will be paramount for Stroud & Co. Against a front like this, I believe Nick Caley will want to take the pressure off of the Texans offensive line and get the ball out of the pocket and on the perimeter, similar to the Chiefs game. The Steelers pass-rush may be fast, but their linebackers are bad tacklers and DBs prone to miscommunication, so Houston’s TEs and WRs should be able to find enough yards after the catch to keep drives going. For the ground game, the Texans may be able to find the production they’re looking for by bringing out the various screen pass plays Woody Marks made a career out of in college while at USC and Mississippi State. Let Marks or Chubb leak out of the backfield with a few tight end or offensive linemen and target Pittsburgh’s linebackers, and through that, the Texans may be able to dink-and-dunk their way to the end-zone. If Stroud is lucky, he may even find some of his receivers wide open downfield, just like Ravens QB Lamar Jackson. However, if Stroud takes some ill-advised sack or Heyward sticks his bear paw up to create a deflection, the entire game can flip upside down in a hurry.
DEFENSE:
Houston’s offense may offer some intrigue in this matchup, but the defense will be what decides the game. Finishing the regular season second overall in points and first overall in yards, the Texans defense was historic in dominance. It took until the season finale for opposing offenses to pass for more touchdowns (20) than interceptions (19) against Houston, absolutely incomparable by most modern NFL standards. They’re one of five teams to hold opposing RBs to an average of under 100 yards per game, only one of four teams to hold opposing QBs to an average completion percentage under 60%, and ranked second in the league in turnover differential at +17 (1st: Chicago Bears with +22). They are just about as complete of a defense as you could ask for…so, how will the Steelers go about attacking them?
Well, against other highly ranked defenses that Pittsburgh has faced, they’ve relied on a very specific trio of playmakers to get them out of binds: RB Kenneth Gainwell, RB Jaylen Warren, and WR D.K. Metcalf. Warren is the quick and powerful, albeit short lead back, Gainwell is the Swiss army knife scatback, and Metcalf is the big #1 receiver that Rodgers considers his favorite target – at least, when he’s on the field. Metcalf missed the last two games of the season due to a suspension he incurred after engaging in a fight with a Detroit Lions fan during their week 16 matchup. Possibly the worst time of the entire year for Metcalf to lose his cool as it nearly cost the Steelers their season, but here they are, 10-7 and in the wildcard round, just as the football gods intended. Houston will need to have a plan for Metcalf’s return to action, but their first priority will be stopping Jaylen Warren and Kenneth Gainwell.
Warren and Gainwell have been the motor to Pittsburgh’s most dominant victories, gashing opposing defenses that didn’t have the speed to deal with either of them blasting upfield. In fact, I think that both player’s short stature may help them on inside rushes occasionally, as they can be easily lost in the mass of humanity that piles up along the line of scrimmage immediately after the ball is snapped. On top of that, RG Mason McCormick, C Zach Frazier, and LG Isaac Seumalo have pushed enough people around to get both tailbacks over 1,000 scrimmage yards. Stopping this won’t be a cakewalk for the Texans, but with a smart and physical defense like theirs, it’s very possible. Both the Cleveland Browns and Buffalo Bills showed a disciplined defense can keep the two tailbacks contained, and even though “disciplined” isn’t the first word I would use to describe the Texans defense this year, I think they are up for the task. It will fall on LB Azeez Al-Shaair, LB Henry To’oTo’o, and S Jalen Pitre’s shoulders to seal the edge or shoot through the right gaps, and if they fail, hopefully either CB Kamari Lassiter or S Calen Bullock can clean up after them.
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@minakimes when talking about the Texans defense on
@ESPNNFL :
“Dan & I are All-Pro voters and I put I think 4 or 5 Texans defenders on my list. Kamari Lassiter, he might be the best tackling corner in the entire damn NFL. Aaron Rodgers, you’re going to have to push the ball…
pic.twitter.com/cAU7suFCAC
— Houston Stressans (@TexansCommenter)
January 6, 2026
And then, there was Steelers QB Aaron Rodgers. He still has an arm that can kill and the awareness to quickly catch a defense in bad coverage, so, even at age 42, he cannot be taken lightly. His efficiency, however, is highly reliant on the previously mentioned Metcalf, the Steelers best receiver. As seen in the last two games, Rodgers is a much more pedestrian quarterback without the big-body receiver to target. Unfortunately, Metcalf will return for the Texans wildcard game, but it’s just as well since it may give Derek Stingley the chance to bait Rodgers into an interception. As MacGregor Wells of Gang Green Nation stated in
5 Questions with Gang Green Nation: What’s the Aaron Rodgers experience like? by
Ryland Bickly,
“He no longer is mobile. He is afraid to take a hit, resulting in a bunch of rushed throws. His arm strength, accuracy and ball placement are all diminished. He is simply no longer a top talent at the position” – Wells
This may be a quote taken all the way back in June of last year, but I think it continues to ring true even now. Rodgers cannot escape incoming rushers, and his rushed throws are usually off the mark. This is where the Texans, specifically DEs Danielle Hunter and Will Anderson, can win the game. Houston’s best two defensive linemen have the acumen to beat Steelers tackles and get to Aaron Rodgers, and if they can do that a few times next week, the Texans should come away with a win. The real wildcard of this matchup could be Steelers LT Dylan Cook, though. Cook has been starting in place on an injured LT Broderick Jones for Pittsburgh, and, despite being an undrafted free agent in 2022 that hadn’t received any significant playing time until his first career start in week 15, Cook has been one of the highest graded blockers since taking the starting job. Because why not? I guess the Steelers just attract starting-quality lineman like a magnet, or something.
The Steelers are most effective when they are able to run an offense that mixes plenty of runs and passes together during a drive. They want to keep the defense guessing and both mentally and physically tire the opponents out. Again, are they a copy of the Texans or
what? Regardless of these remarkable similarities between the two teams, Houston has the defensive stars capable of keeping up with Pittsburgh’s best playmakers, and the pass-rushers that will give Rodgers nightmares. When he is pressured, Rodgers is prone to mistakes, and if the Texans can take a lead on the Steelers, they can force them into passing situations – exactly where they want them. Rodgers is no longer in MVP form, but in game-manager form, and if they’re able to get him to start forcing passes to D.K. Metcalf, the Texans secondary should be able to feast on a flustered Rodgers. Metcalf will certainly give Texans CBs Derek Stingley and Karmari Lassiter some trouble thanks to his speed, but as long as the d-line is able to close in on Rodgers quickly enough, it shouldn’t matter how many routes Metcalf wins. There isn’t much after him on the depth chart, anyways, with Pittsburgh’s #2 receiver, Calvin Austin III, only tallying 3 catches for 55 yards and a touchdown last week.
DK Metcalf basically says ‘no comment’ five times about the situation in Detroit. Was later asked if he had any ‘feelings of responsibility’ while the offense struggled at times the last two weeks.
Here’s the full sequence of those questions:
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— Nick Farabaugh (@FarabaughFB)
January 5, 2026
SPECIAL TEAMS:
This is one of the few games you’ll watch where the special teams for both squads has been a major component to their success. The Texans have literally had their season saved multiple times this year alone thanks to K Ka’imi Fairbairn and his golden leg. He’s made 44 field goals on 49 attempts, Fairbairn is tied for the most field goals made in a season EVER (David Akers, 2011), and fourth most field goal attempts EVER in an NFL season. He probably would have broken the record if he hadn’t been injured in the middle of the season! With that many field goal attempts, Fairbairn is now up on the leaderboard bumping shoulders with the likes of Curt Knight and Chester Macrol, kickers from the 1970s! And yet, he will probably face the toughest opponent yet in the gusty Acrisure Stadium. The unpredictable wind that bursts into that stadium makes it a highly difficulty location to kick in, and the Texans will need him to make it work, as the other best kicker in the NFL, Chris Boswell, is on the other side of the field.
Steelers K Boswell may have missed an extra point in the regular season finale, but he’s been nearly automatic the entire season besides that miss. Boswell has made 27 field goals on 32 attempts, and he’ll probably have made two or three more by the end of the wildcard round. Along with the kicker, the Steelers special teams also sports a pro-bowl gunner in Ben Skowronek. Texans PR Jaylin Noel will need to keep an eye out for him, and if he’s able to do so, Noel might just find himself making a huge return. One of Houston’s gunners, LB Jamal Hill, continues to hang on the injury report and may not play on Monday, which could end up being a serious loss on that side of the ball if the Texans’ luck takes a bad turn.
Texans K Ka’imi Fairbairn has TIED the NFL Record for most FGs made in a single season.
Fairbairn made 6 FGs today including a FG to take the lead with 17 seconds left.
pic.twitter.com/vCuUDBcDcW
— Jacob (@TexansJacob)
January 4, 2026
And that’s my big preview of the Texans vs. Steelers wildcard game. I’ve watched a whole lot of football from both of these teams this year, so I’m highly interested (and highly nervous) to see the result of this upcoming playoff match. Despite the difference in talent between both teams that leans in Houston’s favor, I think the Steelers are a kind of odd, spunky team that can take a lead on a similarly odd and spunky Texans offense and stubbornly hold onto it. CJ Stroud has played better than Aaron Rodgers this season and has better receivers, but one fumble or interception falling into the hands of T.J. Watt can change everything, just ask the Ravens! Pittsburgh’s team, made up of hired guns and spare parts from other teams, has molded into Frankenstein’s football team, and could give nearly any opponent the heebie-jeebies. But, I have belief that the Texans defense will be able to keep Jaylen Warren, Kenneth Gainwell, and D.K. Metcalf from breaking off a big gain, and I believe that Will Anderson and Danielle Hunter have the power to make it an ugly day in the office for Aaron Rodgers. As long as Stroud plays a clean game, he should be preparing for his third playoff win in three years!
Oh, but, there is…something else I should mention of this Steelers team. Something undefinable, and infuriating to opponents. It flashed by in their first matchup against the Ravens a few weeks ago when Lamar Jackson failed to convert the would-be game-winning touchdown on 4th down. It showed its face again when the Steelers held Jared Goff and the Lions at bay on their final drive, which required two separate game-winning touchdown receptions to be negated by OPI penalties. Even tonight, we all witnessed a miraculous interception that practically fell into Steelers’ OLB TJ Watt’s hands in the third quarter, and the dramatic missed field goal that faded wide right at time expired. Call it luck, divine intervention, or some other third thing, but whatever it is, the Steelers have it. Just take a look at that field goal miss from Ravens K Tyler Loop, again. Clearly, the gods wanted the Steelers to win (apparently a priest even doused that end of the field with holy water before the game) and Houston will have to find a way around that without being struck by lightning.
My prediction is…. Houston Texans: 24, Pittsburgh Steelers: 21
GO TEXANS!!!!
(@fball_insights) 
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