With an extra day between Game 3 and Game 4, let’s take a break from the Cup Final analysis and take a look ahead at what could change for both the Edmonton Oilers and Florida Panthers before free agency opens up in 20 days.
While the players are focused on the Cup Final, both general managers, Stan Bowman and Bill Zito, will spend the off days planning for the summer. Both will have some decisions to make regarding free agents.
Florida has 10 forwards, five D-men and one goalie under contract for next season at a combined cap hit of $76.5m. They have $19m to spend.
The Oilers have 11 forwards (I included David Tomasek), six D-men and two goalies at a combined $81.987,500, plus they have $250K in bonus overages. They have just over $13.25m to spend. However, Max Jones is one of those 11 and his $1m salary won’t count if he’s in the AHL.
Edmonton’s unrestricted free agents include Corey Perry, Connor Brown, Trent Frederic, Kasperi Kapanen, Jeff Skinner and John Klingberg. Derek Ryan is also a UFA, while Evan Bouchard is an RFA. Bouchard will get a huge raise, which means Bowman can’t re-sign all of his forwards. More on that below.
Florida’s UFAs include Sam Bennett, Brad Marchand, Aaron Ekblad, Nate Schmidt, Tomas Nosek and Vitek Vanecek. Nico Sturm and Jaycob Megna are also UFAs, while Mackie Samoskevich is an RFA without arbitration rights. The Panthers need to sign two D-men, a backup goalie and either three or four forwards. The main question for the Panthers is: Can they afford Bennett, Ekblad and Marchand? It seems unlikely.
Let’s look at the scenarios for both teams.
OILERS…
Evan Bouchard will command a salary of $10m, and possibly more, considering he’s having another elite playoff performance. He’s earned a big raise, and while some focus on a few nonchalant plays in the regular season, the truth is Bouchard is an elite defenceman who is still improving. He plays huge minutes, is now playing on the PP, PK and 5×5, and he’s an elite point producer.
For easy math let’s say he gets $10m. Currently only three D-men have an AAV higher than $10m — Erik Karlsson ($11.5m) and Drew Doughty and Rasmus Dahlin ($11m). Cale Makar and Quinn Hughes each have two years remaining on their deals and can sign extensions next summer to join the $10m+ club. The only question surrounding Bouchard is what AAV and term will he signs for. With the cap going up quickly the next three seasons, I wonder if Bouchard elects for a bit shorter than eight years. Maybe six?
Bouchard will eat up the majority of the Oilers’ $14.5m cap space, but that doesn’t mean Bowman won’t be active.
Trading Viktor Arvidsson would free up $4m. Arvidsson is in the final year of his deal. He likes Edmonton, but he’d like a bigger role and I’m not sure I see one for him next season. He has a No-Movement Clause (NMC), but my understanding is that won’t be a huge hurdle. I could see a trade that benefits both parties. Edmonton frees up some cap space and Arvidsson goes to a team where he will play more.
Corey Perry wants to play another season. He’s had an amazing year. The Oilers would like him back, but they don’t have the cap space to offer him what he could get on the open market after his 19 regular season goals and 8 (and counting) playoff goals. He had a $1.15m base this season with $250K in bonuses, which he reached. The Oilers could offer him something similar, but the AAV won’t be much higher — it might even be lower depending on cap space.
The Oilers want to re-sign Trent Frederic. It is important to note Frederic still isn’t completely healthy after his high ankle sprain. The player you see in the playoffs isn’t an accurate portrayal of what he can bring. Frederic is only 27. He could sign a three-year deal and be a UFA again at 30. Playing in Edmonton would give him the opportunity to play with McDavid or Draisaitl, which presents an insane opportunity to produce points and increase his earning potential. A three-year deal between $3m-$3.5m is likely his range. He had a down year, which could benefit Edmonton in getting his AAV closer to the low end of those numbers.
Kasperi Kapanen has turned into an excellent waiver claim for the Oilers. A similar deal around $1m a year makes sense. Kapanen has bounced around and even admitted in a recent interview that when he came here, he viewed it as his last NHL opportunity. He doesn’t have any stats to command a higher number, and the coach knows him and he’s comfortable here. Unless the Oilers aren’t interested in re-signing him, and I’ve heard nothing to suggest that is the case, an AAV in the $1m range makes sense.
Connor Brown could go either way. He will command more than the $1m he made this year. Edmonton could go up to $2.25m, but I’m not sure they could afford to go much higher, unless the Arvidsson trade is completed before July 1st. I think Brown could get upwards of $2.75-$3m on the open market. I saw AFP Analytics project him at $2.9m. Brown is very popular in the room. He’s a solid third-line winger who is good on the forecheck, more with his stick than the body, and he can kill penalties. The Oilers could view Kapanen as a replacement with a lower AAV.
John Klingberg has resurrected his career. It took him some time to get his mobility back, but he’s had a solid playoff, and his ability to move the puck and make plays will make him valuable on the market. The Oilers have Troy Stecher and Ty Emberson under contract, so once Bouchard is signed, they have seven D-men. And they have Alec Regula. I don’t see Klingberg returning. He could get upwards of $3m on the open market, as there aren’t many puck moving RD available.
Jeff Skinner is unlikely to return. He’ll want to play more and I’m not sure that would happen in Edmonton. His 16 goals had him in the top 190 forwards in the NHL in goals. I see his AAV around $2.5m. Scoring goals is hard, and he’s good at it.
I’d be surprised if Derek Ryan was re-signed.
PANTHERS…
Sam Bennett is having the best playoff of his career. He leads the league with 14 goals. Only Sidney Crosby (15 in 2009), Alex Ovechkin (15 in 2018) and Zach Hyman (16 in 2024) have scored more goals in a playoff year in the salary cap era. Bennett will get a significant raise off of his $4.425m deal, but the suggestion by Paul Bissonnette of $10m is comical. Biz is pushing that number so when Bennett signs for less, he will say Florida got a discount and he can push his no-state-tax disparity angle. It is smart, but I’m sorry, there is no realistic reason to give Bennett $10m. First off, the Panthers aren’t paying him more than Matthew Tkachuk ($9.5mm) and Sam Reinhart ($8.625m). But Bennett has no numbers to suggest he’s close to a $10m player.
His career best is 51 points set this season. His career high in goals was 28 in 2022. In his last three seasons he’s produced 61-71-132 in 208 games for an average of 0.63 points/game. Compare that to Nazem Kadri when he signed his UFA deal with Calgary three years ago. In the three seasons prior to signing Kadri scored 58-97-155 in 178 games for a 0.87 points/game. His playoff points per game those three years was 1.03. Bennett in his last three years is 0.83.
Kadri is just as much of an irritant, plays hard and he produced more. He signed for $7m when the salary cap was $82.5m. Kadri’s AAV was 8.49% of the total cap. Just based on cap % then Bennett have an AAV of $8.1m. However, he’s never been as productive as Kadri.
Kadri had 87 points in 2022 and added 15 points in 16 playoff games while helping Colorado win the Cup. He signed for $7m a few weeks later.
Bennett scored 51 points this year and so far, has 20 points in 20 games in the playoffs. I love Bennett as a player. I’d take him on my team any day, but is he that much better than Kadri? I could see Bennett signing for $7.5m. If you go over $8m you will be disappointed. I’d be surprised if he doesn’t re-sign in Florida, and when he does don’t buy into Biz’s claim it was a hometown discount because it starts with a seven.
Brad Marchand fits perfectly with how Florida plays. He just finished an eight-year deal that paid him $6.25m per year. He was one of the best value contracts in the NHL in that span producing 606 points in 566 games. He just turned 37, and he’s still very productive. He’d be highly sought after in free agency. He can still command at least $5m, and likely more, but if he goes to a team with a chance to win, he’d likely take a bit less. I wonder how much the result of this series will impact where he goes. Win and he might be open to a few more teams (still competitive ones), but lose and he’ll likely zero in on teams, including Florida, who have the best chance to win.
Aaron Ekblad was very open before the Finals started about his desire to remain with Florida. He loves it there, they’re the only team he’s played for, and they are competitive. I could see Bill Zito make the tough decision and move on, similar to Tampa Bay with Steven Stamkos and Vegas with Jonathan Marchessault last summer. Those teams didn’t want to go long term or high AAV. If Ekblad is willing to sign for $4m to remain a Panther they’d look at it, but my gut (and I have no inside info on this) says they part ways unless he signs a lower AAV.
Nate Schmidt is having an unreal playoff for Florida. Schmidt signed a one-year $800K deal because he wanted to be on a competitor and have fun again. He’s doing that. Would the Panthers sign him at $2.7m to play in their third pair? He’s fit in there very well, and that’s likely what he is on a true contender. They have Dmitri Kulikov and Uvis Balinskis under contract next season for $1.15m and $800K respectively and both shoot left. His playoff performance has really elevated his stock, and I think he’ll test the free agent waters.
Tomas Nosek is a solid fourth-line centre. He signed for league minimum last year with the Panthers at $775K and he’s been all they could ask for. Retaining him around $900K to $1m makes sense for both sides.
Mackie Samoskevich is one of the few young forwards on the Panthers roster. He just finished his ELC with a solid 15 goals and 31 points. He isn’t eligible for an offer sheet and doesn’t have arbitration rights. He won’t have much bargaining power and might just have to take what the Panthers offer, which is fine. If he has another strong season he’ll get a good deal next summer. I’m certain the Panthers will try to lock him up for two years, and to do so, will need to overpay him more. But with limited cap space it will be tough.
Both of these teams have some key players they want to re-sign, but they won’t all be back, and some of their decisions will hinge on the outcome of the Cup Final.
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Last night in Florida, the Edmonton Oilers achieved something the NHL hadn’t seen in over 100 years: They overcame a 3-0 deficit on the road in the Stanley Cup Final and won the game.
The last team to do that was the Montreal Canadiens in 1919 against the Seattle Metropolitans. Seattle was technically a non-NHL team, and the game isn’t even listed at NHL.com, but here is the game sheet.
What you witnessed last night had never happened between two NHL teams before. It was a wild and unexpected comeback by the Oilers and now the Final is a best-of-three with two games in Edmonton.
The Oilers had yet another rough first period. They took three penalties, two of them high-sticking penalties that head coach Kris Knoblauch said in his post-game presser he hated. Evander Kane took one and sat on the bench for 10 minutes because of it.
Stuart Skinner was the only player who was ready to play in the first. Some will see three goals against and think he didn’t play well. Not true. Without two huge Skinner saves the game could have been a blowout. The Oilers need to clean up their first periods if they want to win two of the next three games. They’ve been shorthanded 13 times in the first period this series — an unreal number — and many of the penalties were undisciplined stick infractions.
Despite the lackluster opening frame, the Oilers didn’t fold. They didn’t quit. They didn’t panic. Corey Perry calmly outlined where they were and the need to find their game, play smart and not waste this opportunity.
They didn’t.
Knoblauch decided to change his goalies. It wasn’t an easy decision. “It was unfortunate for Stu to get pulled. Our team was flat. We didn’t give him any opportunities. We took three penalties in the first period again, two high stickings, which I’m hating, and we just needed to change things up,” said Knoblauch.
I viewed it as a guilt-inducing goalie pull. Skinner was the only player who was ready to play in the first, but he took the bullet for his team and Calvin Pickard led them out for the second period.
The Oilers found their legs. They fired the first seven shots on goal, including Ryan Nugent-Hopkins ripping one top-shelf on the power play to get them on the scoresheet. The Panthers had one shot on goal in the first 10 minutes of the second. Pickard wasn’t tested, but then Jake Walman had a brutal giveaway and Anton Lundell found himself in all alone at the top of the circle. He fired a shot blocker side, that Pickard got a piece of. That save kept the Oilers in the game.
Darnell Nurse made it 3-2 only 1:23 after Pickard’s save. Nurse fired upstairs on Bobrovsky and his celebration showed how big of a goal it was. Adam Henrique, Jeff Skinner and Trent Frederic created the goal with a relentless forecheck. They might have been Edmonton’s best line all game. Winning many battles along the boards in the offensive and defensive zones and suddenly the Oilers were within a goal.
DARNELL NURSE MAKES THIS A ONE GOAL GAME
: Sportsnet | #LetsGoOilers pic.twitter.com/YfLlQJvFWj
— Oilersnation.com, Oily Since ‘07 (@OilersNation) June 13, 2025
Oilers fans who watched something else, scrolled their phones or walked away out of frustration, were sucked back in.
Only 2:18 later, Leon Draisaitl won the offensive zone faceoff back to Nurse at the left point. Nurse burst down the boards, carried the puck behind the net, and then put it in front. It hit Bobrovsky, and Podkolzin fought off two Panthers and chopped a backhander just under Bobrovsky’s blocker. He lept into Corey Perry’s arms, the bench erupted, the Moss Pit went bananas, fans jumped up from their couches in jubilation. Hugs and high-fives went all around. Drinks were spilled. Dogs and cats were scared as Oilersnation exploded.
The Oilers had tied the game. You might have been in disbelief.
The second intermission came and you exhaled. Some of you had a drink, something to eat. Maybe even a snoke.
Your rage and anger from 40 minutes ago was gone. Your team was alive once again.
The third period started and the Panthers carried the play early, firing the first five shots. Pickard made a solid pad stop on Evan Rodrigues, but the first 10 minutes was mostly uneventful — although your stress level wasn’t.
Sam Bennett tripped Leon Draisaitl in the neutral zone 7:34 into the period. The Oilers went on their fourth power play and you felt this was their chance.
It wasn’t. Edmonton didn’t manage one shot on goal. Oilersnation’s stress level intensified.
Both teams buckled down and chances were rare. Then the Oilers, like the Henrique line did on Nurse’s goal, hemmed Florida in their zone.
Ryan Nugent-Hopkins battled against two Panthers behind the net. He was relentless, even when they gained possession. Then Mattias Janmark came in off the bench, he knocked the puck off of Selke winner Alex Barkov’s stick, the puck ricocheted to Kasperi Kapanen and the Finn was in a good too shoot. But he saw Jake Walman sneak down from the point, and Walman ripped a perfectly placed one-timer over Bobrovsky’s pad. Edmonton had its first lead.
JAKE WALMAN RIPS A SHOT PAST BOBROVSKY AND PUTS THE OILERS UP BY ONE!
— Oilersnation.com, Oily Since ‘07 (@OilersNation) June 13, 2025
You celebrated, almost feeling stunned.
Walman and Nurse were the first pair of D-men to both score a goal in the same Stanley Cup Final game since Kevin Lowe and Randy Gregg did it in 1987. There was just over six minutes remaining.
You were nervous. You paced. You rocked in your chair. Some clenched their hands. Others left the room. The anxiety of being a fan was at maximum level for the final five minutes.
The Oilers didn’t give up much. Florida only managed one shot from the 5:30 mark until the final 30 seconds.
Then disaster struck Oilersnation. On a broken play, the Panthers tied the game with just over 19 seconds remaining. Matthew Tkachuk mishandled the puck, but it bounced directly to Sam Reinhart to the left of the net, and Pickard had no chance. Tie game.
It was the second-latest tying goal in Stanley Cup history. The latest happened in Game 2, when Corey Perry tied the game with 18 seconds left.
What an unreal series.
OT beckoned.
In OT, the Panthers carried the play. Sam Bennett found himself wide open in the slot just under seven minutes in, and he ripped a one-timer, but Pickard got a piece of it with his glove and it ricochet off the crossbar and out.
Oilersnation gasped. What a @&%$ing save, many said. A minute later Pickard made a great shoulder save on Eetu Luostarinen. Florida was pushing.
Edmonton didn’t have a shot on goal for 6:58, but then Leon Draisaitl stepped on the ice for a line change. He stepped in the zone, took a pass from Podkolzin and went to the net on his backhand. He fended off AJ Greer and shoveled a one-hander towards the net that hit a sprawling Niko Mikkola and through Bobrovsky’s five-hole.
Draisaitl scored his fourth overtime goal of these playoffs — a new NHL record.
You’ve seen so many things in this series that fans have never seen before. And they’ve only played four games.
What a series.
DEPTH, DEPTH, DEPTH…
— In their first 16 periods in Florida (the past two playoffs) the Oilers had scored only two goals at 5×5. But then they exploded for four in the second period and beyond last night. Nurse, Podkolzin, Walman and Draisaitl — Connor McDavid wasn’t on the ice for any of them. The Oilers’ depth showed up when needed most.
Of course Draisaitl played a big role, but the likes of Henrique, Skinner, Frederic, Podkolzin, Nugent-Hopkins, Janmark, Kapanen, Walman and Nurse were a huge part of the offensive surge at 5×5. Scoring four goals 5×5 in the final 51:18 after going 320 minutes with only two 5×5 goals was massive. It saved the Oilers’ season.
— The best part for Edmonton is that McDavid wasn’t on the ice for any of those four goals. He’s actually only been on the ice for one 5×5 goal in six games in Florida. You’d like to think that will eventually change, and maybe it will in Game 6, but regression to the mean doesn’t always happen in short series. The Oilers finally scored 5×5 and that will help them when they return to Florida for Game 6.
— There is no question Pickard has made more big saves in the playoffs, and that’s why I don’t buy the theory the Oilers play better in front of him. He’s made more big saves than Skinner, but the Oilers are still giving up too many HD chances with him goal. The difference is they’ve scored more goals when he plays. The Oilers scored 29 goals in Pickard’s six starts and scored five goals last night when he came in. The Oilers are averaging five goals/game when Pickard starts.
In Skinner’s 13 starts Edmonton has scored 45 goals (3.38). Does Pickard help the offence? Maybe, by making big stops, but in his starts Pickard has a .892Sv% while Skinner has .891Sv%. I’m not sold they actually play better defensively in front of Pickard.
— If the Oilers win the Cup, I don’t see how Draisaitl doesn’t win the Conn Smythe for playoff MVP. He’s scored four OT winners and added an assist. He’s set the NHL record for most OT goals in one year and for most points (5). He’s done it in only six OT games, which is absolutely wild.
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Since 2017, the Oilers’ core group of players has been involved in 10 playoff series that required at least six games. Tuesday will be the sixth time they enter Game 6 trailing 3-2. They are 4-1 in their previous five games. However, only one of those games was on the road (2023 in LA).
Edmonton has experience facing elimination, and the players will need all of that experience combined with discipline, smarts, and the energy to play well in the entire first period if they hope to extend the Stanley Cup Final to a seventh game.
The first period has been the Oilers’ nemesis in every game except Game 2. Edmonton did score first in Game 1, but Florida scored twice to lead after 20. Edmonton eventually trailed 3-1 before coming back to win in OT. The Oilers did score three goals in the first period of Game 2, but they only led 3-2 after 20 minutes. In Games 3-5, they’ve been outscored 7-0 in the first period, including being down 3-0 and 2-0 in both games in Florida. If that happens tomorrow, their Stanley Cup dream will most likely be crushed for another season.
The Oilers started well in Game 5. Connor Brown had a great chance, then Connor McDavid did as well, although neither of his shot attempts reached the net. But after that, the Panthers slowly took the period over, and in the final 10 minutes, they controlled the play and scored twice at even strength. Once again, the Oilers were chasing the game. That has been the common theme of the entire series. They’ve barely had the lead.
[td width="48pt"]Games[/td][td width="48pt"]Lead[/td][td width="48pt"]Tied[/td][td width="48pt"]Trail[/td][td]Game 1[/td][td]9:43[/td][td]35:43[/td][td]34:03[/td][td]Game 2[/td][td]18:04[/td][td]36:56[/td][td]33:05[/td][td]Game 3[/td][td]0[/td][td]0:56[/td][td]59:04[/td][td]Game 4[/td][td]6:04[/td][td]41:49[/td][td]23:25[/td][td]Game 5[/td][td]0[/td][td]9:12[/td][td]50:48[/td][td]Total[/td][td]33:51[/td][td]124:36[/td][td]200:25[/td]
The longest period of time Edmonton has led is 15:46. That was in Game 2 when Leon Draisaitl made it 3-2 with 7:23 remaining in the first period. Florida tied it 8:23 into the second period. Florida has never trailed by more than one goal and never by more than 15 consecutive minutes.
Edmonton has scored first once, in Game 1 at the 1:06 mark. Florida tied it 9:43 later. They never trailed again until Draisaitl won the game in overtime.
There has been a total of 358:52 of game played in the series. The three overtimes have totalled 68 seconds less than another full game. The teams have almost played six games’ worth of minutes in the five games, and Florida has trailed for only 9.4% of the time. The Panthers haven’t needed to take risks or play outside their comfort zone. They haven’t had to expend more energy because they are trailing. It is draining, physically and mentally, when you are chasing the game and trying to tie it.
It wasn’t a huge surprise that Edmonton looked lethargic in Game 5. They’ve been in chase mode most of the series.
They desperately need a solid first period tomorrow. It is a must. I know they won’t quit, but they can’t continue to chase the game and play from behind. It will catch up to them, and it looked like it did in Game 5.
The Oilers’ best first periods were in Games 1 and 2. However, since then, they’ve been outscored 7-0 and outshot 37-20. Their main focus has to be the first 20 minutes.
Be ready.
Play smart.
Play disciplined.
Defend well.
No mental lapses.
Score first.
“We gotta be ready from the start,” said Corey Perry. “It would be nice to get out and play with that lead. That’s our goal to start strong, get that first one and play from there,” said Corey Perry.
The Oilers have to play with intent, but without nerves, which is difficult, especially with so much on the line. Winning isn’t easy, but it can be easier if you score first.
Over the past two Stanley Cup Finals between these teams, the team that scores first is 10-2. Last year, the only game a team lost when scoring first was Game 2, when the Oilers scored first. Florida tied it in the second period before Evan Rodrigues scored twice in the opening 12 minutes of the third period to secure the victory.
This year, Florida scored first in Game 4, led 3-0, before losing in OT.
The Oilers must have a good start that lasts longer than seven minutes and leads to them scoring first.
Start there and put Florida in chase mode.
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The Edmonton Oilers don’t need a massive makeover. They are very close to winning. They lost, for the second consecutive season, to the Florida Panthers. The Panthers are a great team — this group was arguably better than that year’s — and that will be the Oilers’ goal this summer: to improve an already good roster.
Captain Connor McDavid outlined why the Panthers won. “Florida is a special group. They’ve got eight guys with 20+ points, their third line is +20, that’s unheard of. Their backend is big and fast and long and tough, and they have a world-class goaltender,” said McDavid.
Losing to Florida stings. The players, their families, the organization and Oilers’ fans feet the pain. It isn’t easy to lose once, never mind two years in a row, to the same team, but the Oilers don’t need to panic. They don’t need a massive overhaul. There will be tweaks, as there would have been even if they had won. The Panthers won last year, and they improved their team and that will be GM Stan Bowman’s goal, and his responsibility. Edmonton is extremely close to winning, and there will be no shortage of motivation for the players. But Bowman needs to improve the team.
From my seat, these are the areas he will change.
— A new goalie. I don’t see any proven #1 goalies being available. Jake Allen, Ilya Samsonov, Alex Lyon, Anton Forsberg, Vitek Vanecek and Dan Vladar are free agent options. I could see one of them in a tandem with Stuart Skinner.
— They need a right-shot defender, preferably one who can kill penalties, is mobile and a decent puck mover. Could they acquire one in a trade for Evander Kane or Viktor Arvidsson? I think both we will be on the trade block.
—They need a right-shot centre. Noah Philp will have a chance to compete for that spot, but they need someone to push him for it. Luke Kunin could be an option, depending on his AAV ask.
— Add another depth right defender.
The Oilers will be an attractive destination for players looking to compete for the Cup. Edmonton is a legitimate contender and some UFAs will take less to sign here.
NEWS AND NOTES…
— McDavid spoke today and, not surprisingly, didn’t give an update on his potential contract extension. McDavid was still trying to absorb the disappointment of losing the Stanley Cup for a second consecutive season.
“Three days ago, we were two games from winning. Last year, we were two shots away from winning. The belief is incredibly high in that room, and we do believe this group can win and will win. My message to the fans would be to keep being patient and keep believing because they’ve been through a lot. The emotional highs, the lows. I look at what these runs do to my family. It’s hard on them. Just like the fans. It will be worth it,” said McDavid.
He won’t just move on from the disappointment of losing. It is his only focus. But when I asked about his contract extension he said this:
“Winning is the most important thing. If I feel there’s a good window here to win, then signing is no problem. I’m sure we’ll get into it over the next couple of weeks, but I’m not in a rush. Some people will look at the July 1st date (as a time to sign), but there is no rush. I will do what is best for my family,” he said.
Some hear the last line and they panic. Leon Draisaitl said the exact same thing last year, because it is true. That is a factor, but I expect McDavid to remain with the Oilers. It is important to note Draisaitl didn’t sign his extension until September 3rd last summer. McDavid outlined he won’t rush into it. He will take some time to decompress. I think the one difference we could see between him and Draisaitl’s deal is the term. I won’t be surprised to see McDavid sign for five or six years. His agent prefers those deals, and with the cap going up so much, McDavid can sign another extension in five years and get another raise. I’d recommend not worrying about online claims this summer that McDavid won’t stay.
— I think Trent Frederic’s contract will come in around $3.8m AAV. An eight-year term isn’t the norm for a non-superstar player, but I see a good chance this becomes a value contract. Frederic wasn’t 100 percent in the playoffs.
“I’m not thrilled with how I played in the playoffs,” said Frederic this morning. “It (ankle) was a factor and it isn’t ideal jumping into the playoffs after being out that long. I know I can give more and I look forward to that. One of the things that makes me valuable is I can play left, right or centre.”
He also plays with an edge. I wouldn’t use the playoffs as the expectation for what he can do. He scored 17 and 18 goals in a third-line role. I believe he has more to give and if he plays on Draisaitl’s wing all year next season, I’m confident he will give them more offence than Vasily Podkolzin and Viktor Arvidsson did.
I’ve seen many mentioning the Oilers’ depth let them down in the playoffs. Each playoff series is a small sample size, and regression to the mean isn’t really a thing. All that matters is if you outscore the opposition. Shots or expected goals don’t win games. Goals do and in the playoffs they matter. Edmonton’s depth was quite good this year.
In 585 minutes at 5×5 without McDavid or Leon Draisaitl on the ice the Oilers’ depth forwards outscored opponents 25-14. In the Cup Final it was 4-4.
In 570 minutes with Draisaitl and McDavid on the ice together or alone the Oilers were outscored 28-27. In the Cup Final it was 12-6.
Compare that to last years Cup run.
In 516 minutes w/o McDavid and Draisaitl the Oilers were outscored 21-12, including 7-5 in the Cup Final.
In 706 minutes with McDavid and Draisaitl on the ice the Oilers outscored teams 41-31 including 9-7 in the Final.
The Oilers’ depth played more minutes this year, despite playing fewer games, and they outscored opponents handily for the first three rounds and broke even in the Final.
I think it is misguided to suggest the Oilers’ depth is a big issue. A few small tweaks will help, especially a healthy Zach Hyman. Health is always a factor in the playoffs and Ryan Nugent-Hopkins played the final few games with a broken hand. Mattias Ekholm was not fully healthy. The Panthers had ailments as well. It is part of the battle of trying to win.
My way-too-early line predictions to start next year…
Henrique-McDavid-Hyman
Frederic-Draisaitl-Savoie
Podkolzin-RNH-Tomasek
Janmark-Philp/New Guy- Perry/Kapanen
Yours?
Tune in for The Sheet Draft Special, streaming live on the Daily Faceoff YouTube channel on Friday, June 27th at 7 PM EST. Hosted by Jeff Marek, this live special will cover all the action from the 2025 Draft, including expert analysis of top prospects, team-by-team breakdowns, and real-time reactions to every pick. Whether you’re tracking your team’s future stars or just love the drama of draft night, this is your go-to destination for all things Draft.
Jonathan Toews will make his return to the NHL with his hometown club.
The Winnipeg Jets announced on Friday that the three-time Stanley Cup champion will be joining the team for the 2025-26 season.
Pierre LeBrun of The Athletic reported before the announcement that the two sides were nearing a one-year deal, but it couldn’t be made official until free agency opens on July 1.
Back in January, Toews spoke with Matthew Robertson of GQ Magazine and opened up about his battle with chronic inflammatory response syndrome. Toews announced ahead of the 2023-24 season that he’d be stepping away from the NHL as he tried to get his health challenges under control. He spent five weeks in India practicing Ayurveda, a traditional form of alternative medicine that involves yoga, meditation, and enemas to fix an issue that had been plaguing him since he was a teenager.
Selected with the third-overall pick in the 2006 draft, Toews played 1,067 games with the Hawks over 15 seasons, captaining the team to three Stanley Cups in 2010, 2013, and 2015. He won the Conn Smythe Trophy as playoff MVP after Chicago’s first Cup and won the Selke Trophy as the league’s best defensive forward after their second. Toews also won gold with Team Canada at the Olympics in 2010 and 2014.
Toews last played in 2022-23 with the Chicago Blackhawks, scoring 15 goals and 31 points over 53 games on a team that went 26-49-7. Now 37, Toews is returning to the NHL with a team that hasn’t been able to get over the hump. The Jets have had a lot of regular-season success, but they haven’t reached the Conference Finals since 2017-18. Winnipeg went 56-22-4 in 2024-25, the best regular season in team history, and lost in the second round.
Stars re-sign Duchene, trade Marchment to Kraken
The Dallas Stars have done some housekeeping work since falling to the Edmonton Oilers in the Western Conference Final earlier this spring.
The team announced on Thursday that they re-signed Matt Duchene to a four-year, $18 million contract with a full no-move clause in the first two years of the deal. Duchene inked a one-year deal with Dallas last off-season after being bought out by the Nashville Predators and led the Stars with 82 points in 82 games in the regular season.
Not long after that contract was announced, the Stars and Seattle Kraken linked up on a trade to free up some salary cap room for Dallas. The Stars sent Mason Marchment to the Kraken in exchange for a 2026 third-round pick and a 2025 fourth-round pick.
Over three seasons with the Stars, Marchment had 56 goals and 75 assists for 131 points in 211 regular-season games, along with eight goals and eight assists for 16 points in 49 playoff games. He has one more year left on his contract with a $4.5 million cap hit.
Sam Bennett expresses interest in re-signing with Panthers
Soon-to-be unrestricted free agent Sam Bennett doesn’t seem to have any plans to leave the Florida Panthers. While celebrating the team’s second of back-to-back Stanley Cups earlier this week, Bennett made a reference to the film The Wolf of Wall Street, saying: “I ain’t f–king leaving!”
Bennett scored 25 goals and 51 points over 76 regular-season games for the Panthers in 2024-25. In the playoffs, he led the league with 15 goals over 23 games and was voted the first Conn Smythe Trophy winner in team history.
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The dust is beginning to settle after the Edmonton Oilers lost in the Stanley Cup Final for the second year in a row. And of course, when you take a step back, there are some silver linings, and the play of Oilers forward Vasily Podkolzin in the playoffs, especially in the Final, is one of them.
In 22 postseason games, Podkolzin posted 10 points (3G, 7A), with five of his assists being primary helpers. He also played a responsible game throughout and ended the playoffs with a +7 rating.
The 23-year-old also brought a physical edge each and every night in the postseason. The rugged forward finished third in the league with 97 hits and recorded seven or more hits in a game on six occasions. Also, when the muscle from Moscow laid a hit on an opposing player, it wasn’t just to register a stat — most of the time, it seemed like he was out to deliver punishment.
Adding to that, his 10 points in 22 playoff games put him at a 0.45 points-per-game (PPG) pace — an improvement over the 0.29 PPG he posted in the regular season — showing that he’s got that extra gear for high-stakes hockey. Moreover, among players that played a minimum of 150 minutes in the 2025 playoffs, according to Natural Stat Trick, Podkolzin had the 4th best goal share percentage at 5v5 (68.75%), with an 11-5 edge.
Podkolzin Was One of the Oilers Who Stepped Up in the Stanley Cup Final
Additionally, in the future, when reflecting on Oilers who rose to the occasion in the 2025 Stanley Cup Final, Podkolzin will certainly be one of the names that come to mind.
The Moscow, Russia native finished third among Oilers forwards in points with four, trailing only Leon Draisaitl’s eight and Connor McDavid’s seven. Overall, Podkolzin scored three goals in total in the playoffs, and two of them came in the Stanley Cup Final. His first-ever playoff goal came in Game 2 of the second-round series against the Vegas Golden Knights, where he ripped a wrister past Adin Hill.
PODKOLZIN ERASES THE PANTHERS' LEAD IN THE SECONDpic.twitter.com/vVaDa9OBhy
— Sportsnet (@Sportsnet) June 13, 2025
His second goal came in Game 3 against the Panthers, where he scored the tying tally after the Oilers fell behind 3-0 in the first period, snapping a backhander past Sergei Bobrovsky, and his third goal was the only Oilers goal in Game 6’s 5-1 loss. That said, despite being the only Oiler to find the back of the net in the final game of the season, he told reporter Sergey Demidov in an interview, “It was the first time in my life I didn’t feel any happiness after scoring.” He added, “I just wanted it all to be over. Sure, I ruined Sergei Bobrovsky’s shutout, but there was no joy in that.”
Moreover, if you’ve followed my writing throughout the season, you’ll know I’ve often praised Podkolzin’s subtle, yet smart plays. In the Oilers’ come-from-behind win in Game 1 in the Final, I felt he was an unsung hero, as his play helped spark the comeback with a major contribution on Viktor Arvidsson’s goal. Podkolzin carried the puck up ice, gained the zone, dropped it to his linemate, then drove to the net to set a perfect screen in front of Bobrovsky, taking away the goalie’s eyes and allowing Arvidsson’s slap shot to sneak in glove side. It was the kind of quiet play that rarely gets noticed but made a huge difference — just like he’s done all season.
VIKTOR ARVIDSSON CUTS THE FLORIDA LEAD TO ONE!
— Oilersnation.com, Oily Since ‘07 (@OilersNation) June 5, 2025
That said, with the way Podkolzin — who has one year left on his deal at a $1 million cap hit — stepped up in the playoffs, he was a bright spot for the team and a promising sign for the road ahead, because the soon-to-be 24-year-old, in his first postseason, seemed to be perfectly built for playoff hockey.
Another thing that speaks volumes is the trust the coaches have in him — while other depth forwards and players with significantly more NHL experience, like Jeff Skinner, Kasperi Kapanen, and Viktor Arvidsson, rotated in and out of the playoff lineup, it was rarely a question whether Podkolzin would be taken out, as he played in all 22 playoff games.
Podkolzin’s Outlook Moving Forward
Another admirable trait about Podkolzin, who was acquired last offseason from the Vancouver Canucks in exchange for a fourth-round draft pick, is his willingness to put in extra work — going out before practice or putting in extra minutes afterwards. However, if there’s one area he should focus on more this offseason, and it’s likely no surprise to anyone, it’s sharpening his finishing ability and working on his shot. That said, he likely realizes this himself, having said, “But I still believe — and the coaches agree — that I have offensive potential I haven’t fully shown yet.”
Perhaps as he gains more confidence in his shot, he’ll shoot more often moving forward — because if there was one critique I had of him in the playoffs, it’s that he needed to shoot more in prime scoring spots. He finished second last among forwards with only 4.45 shots per 60 minutes, while Mattias Janmark ranked last with 3.33 per 60.
In addition, he played just over 84 minutes alongside Leon Draisaitl in the playoffs and played over 500 minutes with him in the regular season. Podkolzin is built like a tank, he’s like a dog on the bone on the forecheck, he wins board battles and gets the puck back to his centerman. Yet, if he can develop a bit more finish, he could make the second line even more lethal in the future — if he ends up playing there again, which seems likely, since Draisaitl appears to have handpicked Podkolzin as his linemate, as he said:
Podkolzin will be a restricted free agent after next season, and the fellas recently discussed on ‘Oilersnation Everyday’ what an extension for the youngster from Russia might look like — perhaps a three-year deal with a cap hit around $1.6 million to $1.75 million.
Overall, that would be solid value for a solid young player who plays a hard game the right way, is a physical force, with his scoring ability still potentially to be fully realized. Podkolzin said, “I want to reach my full potential here in Edmonton.” He also added, “Maybe this will sound bold to some, but if I get the chance to stay with the Oilers, I’d be happy to keep playing here and developing.”
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The Edmonton Oilers need to address their goaltending situation this offseason.
Unfortunately, there aren’t a lot of good options in free agency, with Jake Allen and Alex Lyon being the notable standouts on the unrestricted free agent market. The Oilers can’t offer sheet anyone as they don’t have any of their picks until the sixth round.
That leaves the Oilers with one option – acquiring a starting-calibre goaltender through trade. Let’s take a look at five goaltenders the Oilers could target from around the league.
John Gibson
Anaheim Ducks’ netminder John Gibson was linked to the Oilers throughout the season. In November, The Athletic’s Pierre LeBrun reported that Gibson would consider waiving his no-move clause to join the Oilers. Toward the trade deadline, it was reported that Gibson had (has?) interest in joining the Oilers if he is their starter.
The Oilers ultimately stuck with Calvin Pickard and Stuart Skinner, making it all the way to Game 6 of the Stanley Cup Final despite a sub-900 save percentage. It’s hard to blame the Oilers’ defeat all on Skinner and Pickard, but it’s one of many “what ifs”.
Shockingly, Gibson’s name has been in the rumour mill, as The Fourth Period’s David Pagnotta reported on Sportsnet 960 that the Ducks would be open to retaining a portion of Gibson’s contract.
Simply put, there are better options on the market. At one point, Mackenzie Blackwood was available, but the Colorado Avalanche pounced on that. Even now, there are better and cheaper options.
Last season, Gibson had a .912 save percentage and 2.73 goals against average in just 29 games with the Ducks, posting an 11-11-2 record. Good enough, right? Well, this was Gibson’s first season with a save percentage above .905. His advanced stats aren’t too encouraging either, as he had a -60.8 goals saved above expected from 2019-20 until 2023-24.
Add the fact that he has two seasons left at $6.4 million a season and dealt with injuries last season, and you have a recipe for disaster. The Ducks may be looking to ship off Gibson because of Lukáš Dostál, a 25-year-old restricted free agent who is ready to start the majority of the Ducks’ games.
Joey Daccord
Another goaltender in the Pacific Division could be a better option for the Oilers. Seattle Kraken’s Joey Daccord is a 28-year-old netminder who has quietly put up good numbers over the last two seasons. In 2023-24, he played 50 games with a .916 save percentage, and followed that up with a .906 save percentage and 2.73 goals against average in 57 games this season. It’s worth noting that Daccord had a .911 save percentage before his final three games, during which he allowed six or more goals in two of the three games.
Despite a lower save percentage than Gibson’s, Daccord’s underlying stats are far more encouraging, as he had a 19.1 Goals Saved Above Expected, higher than Gibson’s 15.3 GSAE.
That said, Daccord will cost more in terms of assets as the Kraken don’t have a young emerging netminder like the Ducks do. Moreover, Daccord signed a five-year, $25 million deal early in the 2024-25 season.
Thatcher Demko
It’s been a tough 15 months for Thatcher Demko. Toward the end of the 2023-24 season, he went down with a knee injury, tried to return for the first game of the postseason, and didn’t play another game until December 10.
Demko didn’t perform well when healthy, as he had an .889 save percentage and 2.90 goals against average in 23 games, with a 10-8-3 record. That said, Demko had a .918 save percentage and 2.45 goals against average in 51 games last season, earning a Vezina Trophy nomination. He finished with a 22 GSAE in 2023-24, the second-best total behind Connor Hellebuyck.
In 2024-25, the Vancouver Canucks turned to Kevin Lankinen, whose strong play earned him a five-year, $22.5 million deal. The Canucks also have Artūrs Šilovs, who has an incredible .931 save percentage and 2.01 in the American Hockey League postseason.
The 2025-26 season will be Demko’s final in his five-year, $25 million deal. He earns $5 million a season, but the Canucks may think it’s better to shed his cap to improve their roster, even if it means trading Demko to a Pacific Division rival.
Feb 12, 2025; Montreal, Quebec, CAN; [Imagn Images direct customers only] Team Canada goalie Jordan Binnington (50) looks on against Team Sweden in the second period during a 4 Nations Face-Off ice hockey game at Bell Centre. Mandatory Credit: David Kirouac-Imagn Images
Jordan Binnington
Like John Gibson, Jordan Binnington was another goaltender whose name popped up around the trade deadline.
Last season, Binnington finished with a .900 save percentage and 2.69 goals against average, helping the St. Louis Blues reach the postseason. Binnington was also Team Canada’s starting netminder in the 4 Nations Face-Off, making numerous big saves in overtime before Connor McDavid won it in overtime.
Binnington has been a big-game performer in the past, going on an insane run in his first full season to help the Blues go from the bottom of the standings to their first Stanley Cup in franchise history.
The 2025-26 season will be Binnington’s penultimate season on his six-year, $36 million deal with a cap hit of $6 million. He has a 14-team no-trade list, and the Blues may choose to retain him as they are a playoff team. They do have a 24-year-old netminder, Joel Hofer, who has served as their backup the past two seasons.
Jeremy Swayman
It’s clear that the Boston Bruins will spend a few seasons at the bottom of the standings. Before the trade deadline, they traded long-time player and their captain, Brad Marchand, to the Florida Panthers, so you can thank them for the Oilers falling short in the playoffs.
If they have a fire sale, which seems like a possibility, Jeremy Swayman is a netminder the Oilers should be all over. His .892 save percentage and 3.11 goals against average in 58 games last season weren’t good, but he missed pre-season due to a contract dispute. In the end, Swayman signed an eight-year, $66 million deal with a cap hit of $8.25 million.
So why bother with him? Well, Swayman was fantastic in 2023-24, posting a .916 save percentage in 44 games last season, finishing with an 18.4 GSAE, third-best in the league. Coming into this season, Swayman had a career .919 save percentage and 2.34 goals against average in 132 games.
This is the type of goaltender the Oilers should be targeting this off-season, as he likely doesn’t have the same value as a few of these other goalies, considering his contract and where the Bruins are. Still, he’s a good bet to bounce back.
Ryley Delaney is a Nation Network writer for Oilersnation, FlamesNation, and Blue Jays Nation. She can be followed on Twitter @Ryley__Delaney.
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