With an extra day between Game 3 and Game 4, let’s take a break from the Cup Final analysis and take a look ahead at what could change for both the Edmonton Oilers and Florida Panthers before free agency opens up in 20 days.
While the players are focused on the Cup Final, both general managers, Stan Bowman and Bill Zito, will spend the off days planning for the summer. Both will have some decisions to make regarding free agents.
Florida has 10 forwards, five D-men and one goalie under contract for next season at a combined cap hit of $76.5m. They have $19m to spend.
The Oilers have 11 forwards (I included David Tomasek), six D-men and two goalies at a combined $81.987,500, plus they have $250K in bonus overages. They have just over $13.25m to spend. However, Max Jones is one of those 11 and his $1m salary won’t count if he’s in the AHL.
Edmonton’s unrestricted free agents include Corey Perry, Connor Brown, Trent Frederic, Kasperi Kapanen, Jeff Skinner and John Klingberg. Derek Ryan is also a UFA, while Evan Bouchard is an RFA. Bouchard will get a huge raise, which means Bowman can’t re-sign all of his forwards. More on that below.
Florida’s UFAs include Sam Bennett, Brad Marchand, Aaron Ekblad, Nate Schmidt, Tomas Nosek and Vitek Vanecek. Nico Sturm and Jaycob Megna are also UFAs, while Mackie Samoskevich is an RFA without arbitration rights. The Panthers need to sign two D-men, a backup goalie and either three or four forwards. The main question for the Panthers is: Can they afford Bennett, Ekblad and Marchand? It seems unlikely.
Let’s look at the scenarios for both teams.
OILERS…
Evan Bouchard will command a salary of $10m, and possibly more, considering he’s having another elite playoff performance. He’s earned a big raise, and while some focus on a few nonchalant plays in the regular season, the truth is Bouchard is an elite defenceman who is still improving. He plays huge minutes, is now playing on the PP, PK and 5×5, and he’s an elite point producer.
For easy math let’s say he gets $10m. Currently only three D-men have an AAV higher than $10m — Erik Karlsson ($11.5m) and Drew Doughty and Rasmus Dahlin ($11m). Cale Makar and Quinn Hughes each have two years remaining on their deals and can sign extensions next summer to join the $10m+ club. The only question surrounding Bouchard is what AAV and term will he signs for. With the cap going up quickly the next three seasons, I wonder if Bouchard elects for a bit shorter than eight years. Maybe six?
Bouchard will eat up the majority of the Oilers’ $14.5m cap space, but that doesn’t mean Bowman won’t be active.
Trading Viktor Arvidsson would free up $4m. Arvidsson is in the final year of his deal. He likes Edmonton, but he’d like a bigger role and I’m not sure I see one for him next season. He has a No-Movement Clause (NMC), but my understanding is that won’t be a huge hurdle. I could see a trade that benefits both parties. Edmonton frees up some cap space and Arvidsson goes to a team where he will play more.
Corey Perry wants to play another season. He’s had an amazing year. The Oilers would like him back, but they don’t have the cap space to offer him what he could get on the open market after his 19 regular season goals and 8 (and counting) playoff goals. He had a $1.15m base this season with $250K in bonuses, which he reached. The Oilers could offer him something similar, but the AAV won’t be much higher — it might even be lower depending on cap space.
The Oilers want to re-sign Trent Frederic. It is important to note Frederic still isn’t completely healthy after his high ankle sprain. The player you see in the playoffs isn’t an accurate portrayal of what he can bring. Frederic is only 27. He could sign a three-year deal and be a UFA again at 30. Playing in Edmonton would give him the opportunity to play with McDavid or Draisaitl, which presents an insane opportunity to produce points and increase his earning potential. A three-year deal between $3m-$3.5m is likely his range. He had a down year, which could benefit Edmonton in getting his AAV closer to the low end of those numbers.
Kasperi Kapanen has turned into an excellent waiver claim for the Oilers. A similar deal around $1m a year makes sense. Kapanen has bounced around and even admitted in a recent interview that when he came here, he viewed it as his last NHL opportunity. He doesn’t have any stats to command a higher number, and the coach knows him and he’s comfortable here. Unless the Oilers aren’t interested in re-signing him, and I’ve heard nothing to suggest that is the case, an AAV in the $1m range makes sense.
Connor Brown could go either way. He will command more than the $1m he made this year. Edmonton could go up to $2.25m, but I’m not sure they could afford to go much higher, unless the Arvidsson trade is completed before July 1st. I think Brown could get upwards of $2.75-$3m on the open market. I saw AFP Analytics project him at $2.9m. Brown is very popular in the room. He’s a solid third-line winger who is good on the forecheck, more with his stick than the body, and he can kill penalties. The Oilers could view Kapanen as a replacement with a lower AAV.
John Klingberg has resurrected his career. It took him some time to get his mobility back, but he’s had a solid playoff, and his ability to move the puck and make plays will make him valuable on the market. The Oilers have Troy Stecher and Ty Emberson under contract, so once Bouchard is signed, they have seven D-men. And they have Alec Regula. I don’t see Klingberg returning. He could get upwards of $3m on the open market, as there aren’t many puck moving RD available.
Jeff Skinner is unlikely to return. He’ll want to play more and I’m not sure that would happen in Edmonton. His 16 goals had him in the top 190 forwards in the NHL in goals. I see his AAV around $2.5m. Scoring goals is hard, and he’s good at it.
I’d be surprised if Derek Ryan was re-signed.
PANTHERS…
Sam Bennett is having the best playoff of his career. He leads the league with 14 goals. Only Sidney Crosby (15 in 2009), Alex Ovechkin (15 in 2018) and Zach Hyman (16 in 2024) have scored more goals in a playoff year in the salary cap era. Bennett will get a significant raise off of his $4.425m deal, but the suggestion by Paul Bissonnette of $10m is comical. Biz is pushing that number so when Bennett signs for less, he will say Florida got a discount and he can push his no-state-tax disparity angle. It is smart, but I’m sorry, there is no realistic reason to give Bennett $10m. First off, the Panthers aren’t paying him more than Matthew Tkachuk ($9.5mm) and Sam Reinhart ($8.625m). But Bennett has no numbers to suggest he’s close to a $10m player.
His career best is 51 points set this season. His career high in goals was 28 in 2022. In his last three seasons he’s produced 61-71-132 in 208 games for an average of 0.63 points/game. Compare that to Nazem Kadri when he signed his UFA deal with Calgary three years ago. In the three seasons prior to signing Kadri scored 58-97-155 in 178 games for a 0.87 points/game. His playoff points per game those three years was 1.03. Bennett in his last three years is 0.83.
Kadri is just as much of an irritant, plays hard and he produced more. He signed for $7m when the salary cap was $82.5m. Kadri’s AAV was 8.49% of the total cap. Just based on cap % then Bennett have an AAV of $8.1m. However, he’s never been as productive as Kadri.
Kadri had 87 points in 2022 and added 15 points in 16 playoff games while helping Colorado win the Cup. He signed for $7m a few weeks later.
Bennett scored 51 points this year and so far, has 20 points in 20 games in the playoffs. I love Bennett as a player. I’d take him on my team any day, but is he that much better than Kadri? I could see Bennett signing for $7.5m. If you go over $8m you will be disappointed. I’d be surprised if he doesn’t re-sign in Florida, and when he does don’t buy into Biz’s claim it was a hometown discount because it starts with a seven.
Brad Marchand fits perfectly with how Florida plays. He just finished an eight-year deal that paid him $6.25m per year. He was one of the best value contracts in the NHL in that span producing 606 points in 566 games. He just turned 37, and he’s still very productive. He’d be highly sought after in free agency. He can still command at least $5m, and likely more, but if he goes to a team with a chance to win, he’d likely take a bit less. I wonder how much the result of this series will impact where he goes. Win and he might be open to a few more teams (still competitive ones), but lose and he’ll likely zero in on teams, including Florida, who have the best chance to win.
Aaron Ekblad was very open before the Finals started about his desire to remain with Florida. He loves it there, they’re the only team he’s played for, and they are competitive. I could see Bill Zito make the tough decision and move on, similar to Tampa Bay with Steven Stamkos and Vegas with Jonathan Marchessault last summer. Those teams didn’t want to go long term or high AAV. If Ekblad is willing to sign for $4m to remain a Panther they’d look at it, but my gut (and I have no inside info on this) says they part ways unless he signs a lower AAV.
Nate Schmidt is having an unreal playoff for Florida. Schmidt signed a one-year $800K deal because he wanted to be on a competitor and have fun again. He’s doing that. Would the Panthers sign him at $2.7m to play in their third pair? He’s fit in there very well, and that’s likely what he is on a true contender. They have Dmitri Kulikov and Uvis Balinskis under contract next season for $1.15m and $800K respectively and both shoot left. His playoff performance has really elevated his stock, and I think he’ll test the free agent waters.
Tomas Nosek is a solid fourth-line centre. He signed for league minimum last year with the Panthers at $775K and he’s been all they could ask for. Retaining him around $900K to $1m makes sense for both sides.
Mackie Samoskevich is one of the few young forwards on the Panthers roster. He just finished his ELC with a solid 15 goals and 31 points. He isn’t eligible for an offer sheet and doesn’t have arbitration rights. He won’t have much bargaining power and might just have to take what the Panthers offer, which is fine. If he has another strong season he’ll get a good deal next summer. I’m certain the Panthers will try to lock him up for two years, and to do so, will need to overpay him more. But with limited cap space it will be tough.
Both of these teams have some key players they want to re-sign, but they won’t all be back, and some of their decisions will hinge on the outcome of the Cup Final.
ARTICLE PRESENTED BY bet365
