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There’s a reason why Shough is generating a buzz
Some NFL quarterback prospects are heralded as future pros before they even graduate high school. Others, however, need time and opportunity for their talents to be recognized. Their paths can be long and winding as they pursue their dreams of playing in the NFL.
Few can compare to the odyssey endured by Louisville quarterback Tyler Shough (pronounced “Shuck”).
Shough is old for a prospect at 25, and will turn 26 on Sept. 28th. He also seems as though he has come out of nowhere to be included in the discussion of top quarterback prospects in the 2025
NFL Draft. But that has much to do with the fact that circumstances outside of his control kept him from starting more than seven (7) games in a season before 2024.
So now that Shough has (finally) arrived on the NFL’s doorstep, we should learn why he’s being talked about as a top quarterback prospect and a potential Franchise Quarterback and an option for the
New York Giants.
Background
Tyler Shough is from Chandler, Arizona and was considered a consensus four-star recruit out of high school. He was the 94th-ranked prospect in his recruiting class and the sixth-ranked quarterback prospect.
Shough’s college career started way back in the distant and murky past of 2018. He drew offers from Oregon, North Carolina, Alabama, Michigan, Cal,
Arizona State, and Colorado State. He initially committed to North Carolina, but ultimately decomitted and enrolled in Oregon. He red-shirted as a freshman, anticipating that starting quarterback Justin Herbert would depart for the NFL in the 2019 draft. That, much to Dave Gettleman’s chagrin, didn’t happen and Herbert returned to school to play the 2019 season with his little brother. Shough was Herbert’s backup that year, and would take the starting job as a red-shirt junior in 2020.
That year, of course, was derailed by the COVID-19 pandemic and the Pac12 would only play seven games. Shough started each of the games, and played well enough in his first real action since high school. He proved to be an excellent student at Oregon and graduated early, earning degrees in Criminal Justice and Political Science in just three years.
Shough then transferred to Texas Tech, where he quickly won the starting job. The adversity continued in Lubbock, Texas, as Shough had each of his seasons at Texas Tech ended by injury. He suffered a fractured collar bone against the University of Texas in 2021, and it was decided that he would allow the bone to heal without surgery. It was rebroken in the first game of 2022, and Shough’s season was ended by surgery to repair the injury. He then suffered a season-ending broken fibula on a hip-drop tackle against West Virginia in 2023.
While Shough was dealing with injuries at Texas Tech, he was also hard at work in the classroom, and he got his master’s degree in interdisciplinary studies in 2022. He also used the money from an NIL deal to marry his long-time girlfriend.
Shough used his final year of eligibility to transfer to Louisville for the 2024 season. The staff at Louisville reportedly did a full medical work-up on Shough and determined that his injuries had more to do with bad luck than anything else.
Measurables
Kent Lee Platte |
RAS.football
Shough has prototypical height for an NFL quarterback at 6-foot-4 ⅞ inches, though he has a (slightly) thin frame at 219 pounds. At this point, it’s safe to assume that he’s physically mature and probably can’t add any muscle mass to his frame without sacrificing his athleticism. He is a very good – though not quite elite – athlete for the position. He has good speed in the open field, particularly once he can open his stride, with solid quickness and burst as evidenced by his 10-yard split and vertical leap.
Shough didn’t do the 3-cone drill or short shuttle at the Scouting Combine. However, he does show good agility on the field for a tall (and rather lanky) quarterback. Nobody will confuse him with a scatback or a slot receiver, but he’s able to make defenders miss in close quarters and change gaps as a runner.
Intangibles
So much of what we focus on with quarterbacks is tangible — things like their height, weight, 40 time, or their ball velocity. However much of what makes a quarterback successful is intangible.
We can’t really measure things like mental processing, football IQ, leadership, or competitiveness, but we can see their effects.
Football IQ and Mental processing
Shough has played in a variety of offenses over the course of his college career, and has executed them all well. He’s played in different flavors of the spread offense at Oregon and Texas Tech, and then a more pro-style offense at Louisville.
Oregon’s offense was a more power run oriented spread offense when Shough was there, using alignment to spread out the defense while quick passes and screen plays supplemented an inside run game. It had shots down the field, but primarily sought to get the ball to playmakers in space in the short-to-intermediate area of the field.
Texas Tech had two different head coaches while Shough was there, with OC Sonny Cumbie running a wide-open spread offense in 2021 while new HC Joey McGuier switched to an air raid scheme in 2022. Shough was frequently asked to play out of empty sets at Texas Tech, often being the run threat himself. That wide-open scheme isn’t similar to what he’s likely to see in the NFL, but it did often ask him to make long throws down the field or to receivers on the far side of the field.
Louisville asked Shough to play from under center relatively frequently. He wasn’t just handing the ball off, but also executing play-action passes as well as roll-outs or traditional passes. It also asked him to make tru progression reads, some of them across the full field, as well as the freedom to check plays at the line of scrimmage.
Shough is an active communicator in the pre-snap phase and typically does a good job of getting the play – or audbile – set. He consistently understands where his options are, and does a good job of diagnosing the defense with pre-snap motion. He typically anticipates where pressure will come from and always knows where his options are down the field.
Over the years he’s improved in his willingness to take what the defense gives him through the air. He was much more willing to check the ball down or throw it away in 2024 than in previous years. He’s also developed a better feel for when to tuck the ball and run or when to slide, get out of bounds, or take on contact.
Leadership and Toughness
As mentioned above, Shough has had a long and winding road to the NFL that’s been fraught with adversity. But that’s had the effect of producing a mature and thoroughly tough young man.
Shough has exceptional mental toughness, not just to persevere through four shortened seasons but also on the field. He’s willing to stand tall in the pocket and does not bail early in the face of pressure. Instead, he will step up and wait until the last second to give his options time or throw the ball away. Likewise, Shough is perfectly willing to scramble and extend the play as long as necessary or attack tight coverage when necessary. He’s also an aggressive runner who’s unafraid of contact – sometimes to his detriment.
Despite a relatively lanky build with an average frame, Shough is perfectly willing to run as though he’s the Juggernaut – or at least a young Brandon Jacobs. Unfortunately, he lacks the mass and power to run over defenders and often finds himself bouncing off. Considering his injury history, seeing Shough take on that much contact is a bit worrying.
Shough attempted to play through his first broken collar bone before being ruled medically unable by the team doctor. He blames the second break of the same bone (suffered on his first hit after returning to action) on not getting surgery on the initial injury. He’s quick to point out that the injury hasn’t been an issue since the surgery in 2022.
It’s also notable that he’s shown more discretion as a runner as he’s developed. He still isn’t afraid of contact, but is much more willing to slide or get out of bounds than earlier in his career.
Shough has been well-regarded as a leader in each of his stops. Even as a high school player, his coach at the Elite 11 camp for top college recruits, Alex Brink, spoke glowingly of Shough’s leadership.
“Kids really gravitated toward Tyler during the week,” he said. “I think his leadership is an incredible quality that people are going to overlook, because he’s such a good quarterback,” Brink said, “He’s very polished.”
Fast forward a few years and the sentiment was echoed by
Miami Hurricanes’ coach Mario Cristobal. Cristobal spoke about Shough before Miami’s game against Louisville this past year, and he obviously isn’t going to give the other team any bulletin board material. But his perspective is interesting as both an opponent and Shough’s coach when he (Shough) took over for Justin Herbert as Oregon’s starting quarterback in 2020.
Cristobal said, “Tyler Shough was a quarterback for us at the University of Oregon in [2020] and helped lead us to a conference championship...I can speak...very personally on behalf of him. A great competitor, great quarterback, he’s big, strong, can run, sees the field extremely well, has a live arm and can make every throw and is a super high level competitor. All right, awesome young man from an awesome family and he’s a natural leader.”
Arm Talent
Tyler Shough doesn’t have truly “elite” arm strength on the order of Josh Allen, Lamar Jackson, or Drake Maye. He also doesn’t have freakish arm elasticity like Patrick Mahomes, Kyler Murray to throw from any conceivable arm slot (or a few inconceivable ones).
That said, Shough is comfortably in that next tier of arm talent with the likes of Joe Burrow or Jayden Daniels and he boasts one of the best arms in this draft class.
He might not have freakish arm strength, but he has plenty of arm strength with the ability to access all areas of the field. He can easily generate the velocity to challenge tight coverage in the short to intermediate area of the field, as well as drive the ball deep down the field. He also has the ability to alter his arm slot within reason, as well as challenge coverage underneath when throwing off-platform.
He has a smooth, sweet throwing motion within the pocket with great connection between his upper and lower body. Shough has light, quick feet in his drop and does a great job of aligning his feet with his target when he commits to a throw. That allows him to have a smooth, repeatable throwing motion with good accuracy to all levels. He’s able to place the ball where he wants it, layering it between defenders or leading his receiver to the open field. Shough’s footwork is durable and consistent out of both the shotgun and work from under center.
Shough has an interesting ability to alter his throwing motion and speed his process depending on the situation. His deep passes feature an “over the top” motion that sees him generate power from the ground up, gathering it throughout his body before releasing the ball. When he has to execute quick hitting passes or plays under pressure, however, he uses a compact three-quarters release. The fluidity of Shough’s throwing motion allows him to stay on time and in rhythm in a variety of situations. It’s also allowed interesting play variety and design throughout his career.
In particular, both Texas Tech and Louisville have used a triple reverse pass which sees a toss from Shough to a receiver on a sweep, from the receiver to a running back, and then finally back to Shough for a deep pass down the field. His ability to shorten his throwing motion and speed up his process allows the play to have a similar timing as a deep play-action pass.
His arm strength also allows him to generate velocity without necessarily driving from the ground up, so he can get away with not stepping into his throws if his pocket is constricted. Likewise, he’s able to make throws off-platform on rollouts or when scrambling. He’s able to throw around defenders on screen plays, as well as challenge coverage in the intermediate area while on the move.
It is worth noting that off-platform throws are where the limits on Shough’s arm show up. His accuracy becomes inconsistent when he resorts to side-arm passes and the ball can drift off target. Likewise, he can’t access his full range when throwing off-platform and has a slight tendency to attempt deep passes while on the move, only to have the ball stall out on him.
Athleticism
Shough is a talented athlete both within the pocket as well as in space. He has good quickness and agility, as well as solid speed in the open field.
He’s able to quickly shift his body and alter his target as a passer, make sudden movements to avoid would-be sackers, scramble and extend the play, or pick up yards in the open field. Shough has good field vision and awareness, as well as body control. He does a very good job of anticipating defenders, feeling and avoiding pressure, and knowing where both his blockers and options are.
Shough was frequently part of the running game at Oregon, Texas Tech, and Louisville. He has solid vision as a runner and executes read-option runs as well as designed quarterback runs well. He doesn’t have “burner” speed, but his long legs let him pick up significant yardage when he gets free in the open field. Interestingly, he has surprising agility and short-area quickness for a lanky athlete.
As mentioned above, Shough is utterly fearless as a runner and willing to take on contact. However, he has a tendency to run like a power back, but lacks the size or strength to run over defenders. He can often find himself lowering his shoulder in short-yardage situation only to be stopped immediately or bounce off defenders.
He can absolutely be an asset on the ground and gives his team a run threat out of an empty set, but his future team will need to be smart in how they scheme running plays for him. Shough is a weapon on the ground, but shouldn’t be expected to truck defenders or pick up tough yardage on his own.
Projectable Stats
The use of stats and analytics is changing how we view and analyze the game of football. However, just because we have masses of data points, doesn’t mean we automatically make better decisions. Data that’s misunderstood or poorly interpreted is the same as no data at all at best, and distracting noise at worst.
However, there are some stats and advanced analytics that do have predictive value. Some stats, such as sack rate, are “sticky” and can follow quarterbacks from
college to the NFL, as
well as from team to team.
For our purposes, we’ll be looking at completion percentage, yards per game, sack rate and pressure to sack rate, EPA, and ESPN’s QBR. Each of those stats has a moderately strong to strong correlation coefficient between college and the NFL. None of them are definitive, but they’re another tool that can help provide a backstop to check bias as well as confirm what we did (or didn’t) see on tape. For reference, I’ll be listing their rank among top quarterback prospects in the 2025 quarterback class.
Completion percentage: 62.7 (5th)
Yards per game: 266.3 (4th)
Sack rate: 3% (1st)
Pressure to sack rate: 9.3% (1st)
EPA: 53.9 (5th)
QBR: 75.5 (5th)
There’s a discrepancy between Shough’s tape and his stats, and reconciling Shough’s tape with his less-than-sterling advanced stats is going to be a challenge for the more analytically-inclined teams.
We shouldn’t ignore the fact that his EPA, completion percentage, and YPG don’t offer a sunny forecast for his NFL future.
However, that could be a product of his halting path to the NFL and his injuries preventing him from finding consistent playing time until the 2024 season. It could also be a byproduct of the fact that the best team he’s been a part of was the 2021
Oregon Ducks.
Shough was consistently the best player on the field for Texas Tech and Louisville, and while he allowed the players around him to play up to their potential, they weren’t always able to take advantage of the opportunities he afforded them. There were multiple instances on the tape viewed of Shough delivering a good pass for a potentially big play, only for it to be dropped or the receiver out-fought at the catch point.
Despite his low completion rate, Shough has a very good interception rate. Last year he had just a 1.5 percent interception rate and a 2 percent interception rate for his career. That’s in line with the 1.8 percent turnover-worthy play rate reported by Pro Football Focus (11th in FBS). On tape, Shough is willing to challenge coverages and attack tight windows, yet doesn’t often put the ball in danger.
Shough has, by far, the best sack rate and pressure to sack rate of the top quarterbacks, which lines up with his tape. He isn’t a risk averse quarterback, nor does he panic in the face of pressure. Instead, he does a very good job of identifying pressure and either checking down, buying time, or throwing the ball away.
Game Tape
Final Word
Tyler Shough isn’t a particularly challenging evaluation on the field. There’s a lot to like about his game, from his mobility and arm strength, to his mechanics and precision as a passer, to the development he’s shown as a processor.
Shough can execute a wide variety of offenses, from a Spread Coast horizontal offense to an Air Raid vertical attack, to the concepts found pro-style offenses. He has a propensity for generating “WOW” throws and can threaten the entire field as long as he has a smidgen of room to set his feet. He can bail out his offensive line and will give his receivers a chance to make big plays.
Shough is a capable runner who can force a defense to respect the read-option, pay for playing man coverage and turning their back on him, or be a viable threat to run out of an empty set. He might not be a terrifying power runner in the mold of Cam Newton, but he can make defenders miss and create chunk plays in the open field.
His scholastic endeavors suggest a very intelligent young man, and he seems to have a high football IQ as well.
On the field, Shough checks a lot of the boxes teams look for in a starting quarterback, with the chance to be the face of a franchise. If Shough was 22 and had a “normal” path to the NFL, it’s possible that he would be QB2 on many teams’ boards.
The problem is, of course, with Shough’s age and injury history.
It’s possible that teams will be comfortable with his medical history; that the Louisville staff are right that he just had a run of bad luck and there isn’t any concern going forward. After all, he hasn’t had any soft tissue or non-contact injuries and he doesn’t seem to be at fault for his injuries.
But there’s still his age.
Teams league-wide will have to contend with older prospects as a result of players staying in school for lucrative NIL deals. Shough, of course, has had significant extenuating circumstances, and teams were tolerant of such in 2024. Jayden Daniels, Michael Penix, and Bo Nix were all drafted at 24 years old with winding college careers – Penix even has a
much more significant injury history than Shough.
But how will the NFL reckon with a 25-year-old prospect, who will be 26 in his rookie season, and with just one full year of real production?
Tyler Shough is a grown, mentally and physically mature man – he’s married and has his master’s degree. It’s possible that teams will believe that he is what he is. Or it’s possible that they could see untapped upside and he could be the steal of the draft.
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