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Can Milroe reach his ceiling in the NFL?
The
New York Giants are widely expected to draft a quarterback at some point early in the 2025
NFL Draft. So far they’ve been connected to all the top quarterback prospects and have spent a considerable amount of time scouting them through the season and the draft process itself.
On the surface, Alabama quarterback Jalen Milroe has a number of traits that it would be easy to see the Giants falling in love with. He’s intelligent, hard-working, accountable, has elite athletic traits, and a military-grade throwing arm. He’s also the top quarterback furthest away from realizing his potential.
He is going to be a fascinating player to follow through the process leading up to the draft, and then through the opening years of his career. Milroe has the distinction of having the highest ceiling and lowest floor of any top quarterback prospect. It’s a duality that’s sure to scare anyone with an aversion to risk, while also tantalizing anyone with a propensity to ask “what can he do?”
The Alabama quarterback’s physical and athletic traits are plain to see on tape. What he’s able to do at his best will have scouts and coaches alike eager to see the player he could become.
Georgia head coach Kirby Smart was asked about defending Milroe before the game between Alabama and Georgia in September, and whether Georgia had any way to simulate Milroe in practice.
Smart said, “He can go as fast backwards as he can go forward, I’ve seen him get out of jams straight ahead, backwards, elite quickness. When you see him in person on the field, he’s very thick and very hard to tackle, but yet has a bazooka for an arm, so there is no simulation.”
That game had scouts talking about Milroe as, potentially, the top quarterback in the draft, and publicly comparing him to two-time MVP Lamar Jackson.
However, Milroe is not yet a finished product, and his floor carries with it a definite “bust” risk. And that risk was put on display with a terrible game against Michigan – 16 of 32 passing, 192 yards, 1 touchdown, 1 interception, and just 7 yards rushing – in Milroe’s final game at Alabama. That was followed by a sobering week of practice at the
Senior Bowl, and he was suddenly being talked about as a potential Day 3 pick.
So just who is Jalen Milroe as a prospect? Is he a future MVP candidate, or will he be a coach-killing bust?
Background
Jalen Milroe hails from Katy, Texas and comes from a military family, with his mother serving in the Navy while his father was a Marine. He was pretty widely recruited out of high school, and was well-regarded for both his athleticism and his arm strength.
Evaluators generally believed that Milroe had the potential to reach the NFL, and he received offers from 17 different schools. Milroe was regarded as a 4-star recruit, but was also only QB14 in his recruiting class – ranking behind recruits like Quinn Ewers, Caleb Williams, J.J. McCarthy, Drake Maye, Jaxson Dart, and Shedeur Sanders.
Milroe initially visited and committed to the University of Texas, but ultimately committed to and enrolled in the University of Alabama in 2021. There, he sat behind (now
Carolina Panthers quarterback) Bryce Young until taking over as the starter in 2023.
Measurables
Kent Lee Platte |
RAS.football
Milroe has a compact, powerful build that comes in slightly below prototypical height for the position at the NFL. However, he is a dense, stocky athlete with a muscular physique and obvious strength throughout his frame.
He showed up to the NFL Scouting Combine slightly lighter than expected at 217 pounds, down a bit from the 220 pounds at which he weighed in at the Senior Bowl. We could probably chalk that up to some combination of daily variation in water weight, the rigors of travel, and the effect of pre-draft training.
It’s likely that Milroe will play somewhere around the 225 pounds at which he is listed by Alabama.
We don’t know just how quick, fast, or explosive Milroe is, because he didn’t test at the Combine. But as we’ll cover in a bit, we can tell from his tape that the answer is “very”.
Tape viewed
2023 - vs. Texas, vs. Auburn, vs. Georgia, vs. Michigan
2024 - vs. Georgia, vs. South Carolina, vs. Tennessee, vs. Auburn
Intangibles
So much of what we focus on with quarterbacks is tangible — things like their height, weight, 40 time, or their ball velocity. However much of what makes a quarterback successful is intangible.
We can’t really measure things like mental processing, football IQ, leadership, or competitiveness, but we can see their effects.
Football IQ
Milroe is not generally regarded as having a high football IQ, however that might be a significant misconception.
He seems to be an intelligent young man and was the winner of the William V. Campbell trophy in 2024, otherwise known as the “Academic Heisman”. He graduated Cum Laude last December with a 3.52 GPA and is currently pursuing a Master’s degree in Sports Management.
On the field, Milroe has run two different schemes as a starter.
Most recently, Kalen DeBoer ran an offense that was similar to what he ran as the
Washington Huskies’ coach, which combined Air Raid and Spread Coast principles. His offense is focused on creating separation for offensive skill position players and isolating them on lone defenders. Ideally, the defender is put into conflict or forced to deal with schemed separation to allow for run-after-catch opportunities or vertical shots by the offense.
All in all, it isn’t a mentally demanding offense and largely involved limited half-field reads and RPOs for Milroe.
In 2023, however, Alabama’s offense was run by former
Notre Dame quarterback, and new
Cleveland Browns offensive coordinator, Tommy Rees. That offense was closer to a “Pro Style” system and made use of far more progression reads, as well as full-field reads. Milroe navigated the progression reads fairly well in 2023 and showed a fair amount of comfort reading a defense and working through his progression by the end of the season.
His 2023 tape – as well as his academic accomplishments – suggests that Milroe’s intelligence as a quarterback is being underrated and overshadowed by his prodigious athletic ability.
Mental processing
As noted above, Milroe’s tape suggests a keen mind at work on the field. He wasn’t asked to be a field general, but there is evidence of him navigating full field reads. He generally works through his progression smoothly, with the strip on his helmet crisply moving from receiver to receiver. Milroe also rarely stares down his receivers unless it’s a one-man read.
There is also evidence of Milroe using good eye discipline to manipulate defensive backs to expand receiving windows. Likewise, he understands when to find his check-down as well as when to pull the ball down and scramble. Milroe has a solid pocket presence, with a good internal clock and feel for pressure. He might not be in the same league as Donovan McNabb at this point in his development, but he doesn’t abandon the pocket too early nor is he oblivious to pressure.
Leadership and toughness
As mentioned above, Milroe comes from a military family and he credits his parents with instilling within him a work ethic and mental toughness.
He’s obviously unafraid of taking on contact as a runner or standing in the pocket as a passer. There are multiple instances in his tape of Milroe getting the pass off in the face of an imminent sack – and then getting back up after a hard hit.
Legendary coach Nick Saban credited Milroe’s leadership and accountability when naming him the starter in 2023, saying “Jalen really showed the leadership that I was looking for during the game, in terms of supporting his teammates and doing the things he needed to do.”
Alabama offensive coordinator Nick Sheridan also spoke about Milroe’s work ethic and leadership after the quarterback was voted a team captain last summer.
He said, “He’s as hard of a working player as I’ve ever been around. He’s a completely committed, devoted student-athlete in all areas. His teammates respect that. And I think he’s becoming more and more comfortable, even in our time here, of using his voice to encourage, to confront, to demand. Because he’s certainly putting in the time and the work.”
Arm talent
Milroe’s arm talent is a complicated topic.
He has one of the strongest arms in the class, with the raw arm strength to challenge very tight windows or access any part of the field. Milroe is able to drive the ball to beat quickly closing receiving windows, as well as attack deep down field off of play-action.
Milroe also has a fairly elastic arm and is able to throw with velocity off-platform and deliver the ball with velocity from a variety of arm slots. He’s also an excellent athlete (we’ll get to that in a minute), which allows him to roll out and change his launch point or escape pressure. When combined with his arm strength and ability to generate velocity off-platform, he’s able to extend plays and create big plays off-schedule.
That said, his arm strength and elasticity can be as much a curse as a blessing. The fact that he doesn’t need to set his feet and transfer his weight to generate velocity has allowed him to simply “get by” with poor footwork.
Milroe’s footwork is a persistent problem in his tape, and it impacts every aspect of his game as a passer. His footwork was lazy at times in 2023, using a shuffling drop as opposed to traditional 3 or 5-step drops. That led to bad habits when it comes to aligning his feet with his target as well as timing his drops with receivers’ routes.
He was more disciplined in 2024 and used more traditional drops to time his plays. However, he was more inconsistent in aligning his feet with his target. Milroe has a tendency to use a VERY open stance that can see his feet 30 or 40 degrees off-line with his target. Even when his feet are aligned with his target, he can have a quick hop (almost like a reverse hitch) that pulls his left leg further to the left and opens his stance just before he throws. His inconsistent footwork can lead to a wide variety of outcomes as he relies purely on his arm to deliver the pass – the ball can sail on him, the throw be pulled left, or pushed right.
That said, when Milroe’s feet are quiet and aligned with his target, he’s able to effortlessly drive the ball down the field, delivering beautiful passes with great anticipation and pinpoint precision. He flashes the ability to execute deep outs, layer the ball over defenders, or throw back-shoulder fades deep down the field.
Whether teams believe that Milroe’s footwork can be fixed – and how long it will take – could be the determining factor in his draft stock.
Athleticism
Milroe is the most athletic quarterback in this draft class. We don’t know precisely
how athletic he is, because (like Lamar Jackson) Milroe elected to skip the athletic testing at the 2025 NFL Scouting Combine.
But we don’t need his 40 time to know that he’s fast. There’s evidence all over his tape of him outrunning the best that the SEC has to offer. He combines raw speed in the open field with impressive agility and short-area quickness, as well as explosive acceleration. Milroe isn’t a big quarterback, per se, at just under 6-foot-2, 220 pounds. However he is densely built with obvious power on tap. He’s able to be a power runner if necessary, but his speed and agility give him a variety of options at any given time.
Milroe is fast enough to break defenders’ angles and access quickly-closing gaps or cutback lanes. Likewise, he’s able to make defenders miss in a phonebooth, out-juking defenders behind the line of scrimmage or in the open field. That athleticism also allows him to dodge defenders when extending plays or executing roll-outs.
There are instances in which he relies too heavily on his athleticism, however Alabama has also made heavy use of him in their running game. Milroe’s ability to be a legitimate threat as a runner gives the Alabama offense the threat of a running play even when running empty sets with 00-personnel (five receiver) packages.
Projectable stats
The use of stats and analytics is changing how we view and analyze the game of football. However, just because we have masses of data points, doesn’t mean we automatically make better decisions. Data that’s misunderstood or poorly interpreted is the same as no data at all, and distracting noise at worst.
However, there are some stats and advanced analytics that do have predictive value. Some stats, such as sack rate, are “sticky” and can follow quarterbacks from
college to the NFL, as
well as from team to team.
For our purposes, we’ll be looking at completion percentage, yards per game, sack rate and pressure to sack rate, EPA, and ESPN’s QBR. Each of those stats has a moderately strong to strong correlation coefficient between college and the NFL. None of them are definitive, but they’re another tool that can help provide a backstop to check bias as well as confirm what we did (or didn’t) see on tape. For reference, I’ll be listing their rank among top quarterback prospects in the 2025 quarterback class.
Completion percentage: 64.3 (4th)
Yards per game: 218.8 (5th)
Sack rate: 6.8 percent (4th)
Pressure to sack rate: 18.5 percent (3rd)
EPA: 60.5 (4th)
QBR: 82.5 (3rd)
Milroe is, perhaps more than any other prospect in this draft class, still a work in progress and his projectable stats bear that out. His passing stats are also somewhat complicated by the fact that he was one of the very best running quarterbacks in college football over the last two years – if not
the best.
Alabama’s offense took full advantage of the fact and made Milroe a featured part of the rushing attack. That served to limit his passing yards per game and touchdown production, but his overall offensive production remained high.
Milroe’s athleticism also impacted his Sack Rate and Pressure To Sack (P2S) rate in both positive and negative ways. On the one hand, he flashes some impressive pocket presence and pocket management. He has a good sense for pressure and does a good job of keeping his eyes downfield while using his agility to flow within the pocket. There were multiple instances where he side-stepped a pass rusher or stepped up into the pocket to buy time in order to find a receiver. That helps explain his better-than-expected P2S rate – the quarterback is often the final arbiter of whether or not he gets sacked, and Milroe’s awareness and athleticism allow him to out-athlete defenders.
However, his confidence in his athleticism and scrambling can get him in trouble as well. There were instances throughout his tape of him extending the play only to be caught by persistent or highly athletic defenders. That helps to explain his relatively high sack rate.
Game Tape
Final word
Milroe will be one of the most challenging evaluations for teams in this year’s draft class. Not only will they need to accurately assess Milroe’s strengths and weaknesses, they’ll need to determine the root causes of his deficiencies and where he is on his development curve.
Milroe might have the greatest upside of any quarterback in this class. Yet he’s also a definite “boom or bust” prospect who may never reach his lofty ceiling. That’s a major reason why Milroe has drawn comparisons to players like Anthony Richardson or Trey Lance.
I typically don’t like to make comparisons between prospects and NFL players and prefer to let the prospects stand on their own. However, studying Milroe’s tape did remind me of another passer: Josh Allen. But specifically, not Allen today, but rather Allen in 2017 at Wyoming. While Milroe isn’t as tall as Allen and his arm isn’t quite as potent (though he’s also a better athlete), there are some strong similarities.
Allen had very similar mechanical issues as Milroe, right down to the open stance and last second misalignment of his lead leg. And because of the similarly inconsistent mechanics, both Milroe and a young-Allen are high variance passers. They both could easily air-mail a pass over a receiver on relatively easy out-route – or deliver a Heisman-worthy pass directly into a receiver’s hands 50 yards down their field.
And therein lies the biggest rub with Milroe; that teams will need to be honest with themselves about themselves.
Every team could use the player that Milroe
could be. But not every team has the right environment to foster his development. Teams will need to decide if they have the patience for Milroe’s development timeline. Likewise, they need to be honest with themselves as to whether they can bring out his best.
It’s somewhat ironic that the Giants are the most quarterback-needy team in the NFL, with two men at the top who helped draft and develop Josh Allen, and have had the local (and national) media opining that they need to find “their Josh Allen”… And yet they might not be able to draft the player who’s traits most closely mirror Allen’s because they can’t afford the time it could take to develop him.
Jalen Milroe might be this class’ best chance to produce a “cyborg” quarterback who can put defenses in impossible positions. He could also be a flop who gets a coach fired if a team isn’t able to develop him.
Ultimately, Milroe’s draft stock will hinge on how teams assess their appetite for risk against the potential reward.
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