After enduring a tough early season schedule that saw them lose to the Panthers, Buccaneers, and 49ers while beating the Vikings, Commanders, and Bills, the Falcons get a brief reprieve before facing off against resurgent Patriots and Colts teams. That comes in the form of the woeful Miami Dolphins.
The Dolphins are terrible, as their record suggests, but are they bad enough that we should expect—nay,
demand a Falcons win? In short, yes. Let’s get into it.
Team rankings
| Team | Record | Points Scored | Yardage | Passing Yards | Rushing Yards | Points Against | Yardage Against | Passing Yards Against | Rushing Yardage Against | Turnovers Created | Turnovers Surrendered |
|---|
| Falcons | 3-3 | 28 | 7 | 10 | 4 | 8 | 2 | 1 | 20 | 7 | 11 |
| Dolphins | 1-6 | 25 | 27 | 26 | 29 | 29 | 26 | 11 | 32 | 26 | 27 |
The Falcons move the ball pretty well between the 20s but have one of the league’s most frustrating red zone offenses and have way too many low-scoring games for a team with this kind of firepower. They are also, literally across the board, a significantly better team than the Dolphins.
Miami has a decent pass defense but are in the bottom quarter of the league in every other metric you can think of otherwise, which is why they are lucky to have a single win in 2025.
How the Dolphins have changed
Since the last time the Falcons saw them, the Dolphins have changed quite a bit, so we won’t recount everything. Suffice to say they went from Brian Flores (24-25 as Miami’s head coach) to Mike McDaniel (29-29), but Tua Tagovailoa is still here.
Over this past offseason, the Dolphins traded Jonnu Smith and Jalen Ramsey to the Steelers for Minkah Fitzpatrick, made a splash signing by bringing in James Daniels (who has been excellent in pass protection and merely so-so as a run blocker at guard), Larry Borom (who has been bad at right tackle), Nick Westbrook-Ikhine (who is currently serving as the team’s #2 receiver and has seven catches for 42 yards), and Ashtyn Davis (who has been a reasonably solid starter).
The team also heavily re-tooled their defensive line through the draft, adding Kenneth Grant, Jordan Phillips, and Zeke Biggers; Grant and Phillips have had their moments but have looked like rookies. New starting left guard Jonah Savaiinaea and reserve running back Ollie Gordon have gotten considerable run early on, while the team is hoping Quinn Ewers develops into a capable backup quarterback.
There are some solid pieces here and some solid pieces added, but as their record suggests, this roster is not very good right now as a whole.
What to know about Week 8
This is not a must-win the way the second games against the Panthers or Buccaneers will be. It’s not a really-nice-to-have victory the way the Vikings and 49ers games were. It’s not even a pull-this-off-and-show-what-you’re-made-of triumph the way the Bills game was. No, this is a you-have-to-win-because-your-opponent-sucks sort of matchup, plain and simple.
There are two such games remaining on the slate, against the Dolphins and hapless Jets, and the Falcons have to pull off both games to realistically contend. Not only would it shake the faith of the fanbase and key people in Flowery Branch to lose to these two god-awful AFC East teams, but it would tighten the margin of error considerably for a deeply inconsistent team.
The 49ers came into their game with plenty of talent, even if they were so injured that it legitimately impacted what they could put on the field, and they coached their existing talent up and leaned on Christian McCaffrey to great effect against the Falcons. The Dolphins are less talented and less well-coached than the 49ers, and have refused to make the coaching or quarterback change that sometimes sparks a team for a week or two. They’re just plain bad, and their solid pass defense is about the only thing they have going for them.
The Falcons know exactly how they need to play this game, no matter who ends up being under center on Sunday. They need to take advantage of a dismal Dolphins run defense and plan on having Bijan Robinson and Tyler Allgeier combine for at least 30 carries. They need to get Robinson in space and working against Miami’s linebackers, who do not have the coverage chops or tackling ability to keep up with him. They need to attack whoever is working against Jack Jones, who has been unreliable in coverage and has allowed plenty of yards after the catch and a team-high pair of touchdowns. And they need to pressure Tua Tagovailoa, who has thrown ten interceptions in 2025 and has been panicky and terrible when he feels the rush, with one of the lowest average depth of target numbers under pressure, three interceptions and seven throwaways on 53 pressured dropbacks, and 15 sacks to go with it. If you can force Tua into the kinds of mistakes he’s been making all season and impose your will on the ground, this one is going to go the way we all want it to.
With Tyreek Hill done for the year and Darren Waller out this week, the Falcons have to focus on two weapons. Pressuring Tua will cut down on his ability to complete passes to Jaylen Waddle, his best remaining receiver and a legitimately dangerous player, but A.J. Terrell should be up to the challenge of limiting his impact. The trickier player to manage is unquestionably DeVon Achane, who is 36th in the NFL in success rate but has the league’s best yards after contact average, has broken a carry of at least 40 yards in each of his last two games, and is a dangerous pass catching option. He’s a deeply boom or bust player who has been getting hot, a worrying thing when McCaffrey just diced up this run defense (and Atlanta’s linebackers in coverage) en route to a huge day in Week 7.
Offensively, the Falcons are going to be deeply and justifiably embarrassed if they struggle here. Miami has allowed at least 21 points in every game this season, and has allowed 27+ in all but one. Over the last three weeks while playing the Panthers, scuffling Chargers, and Browns, they’ve given up 87 points and nearly 500 yards on the ground, so it has hardly mattered that teams haven’t been passing all that much against them. They have just one interception on the season, via the talented Minkah Fitzpatrick, but are perfectly capable of generating pressure up front and have a pair of very good coverage options in Fitzpatrick and cornerback Rasul Douglas.
Their run defense, however, has been abysmal. Atlanta has to not galaxy brain this one and do what they did so well against the Buffalo Bills and Minnesota Vikings, leading with the run and picking their spots through the air. Miami has allowed by most rushing yardage in the league by a full 100+ yards and are third in the league in yards per carry allowed. They’re also the worst team in the NFL in terms of opposing drives ending in a score, at a robust 56.1%, which is really something when you account for their decent passing defense. Running on Miami is almost guaranteed to work.
If the game comes down to a long field goal, by the way, the Dolphins kicker is currently Riley Patterson. You may remember him missing two of his three kicks from 50-plus yards a year ago for the Falcons while Younghoe Koo was hurt; this year he’s been excellent inside 50 but has missed his only kick from that distance.
Last week I felt like the talent gap between the Falcons and (heavily injured, to be clear) 49ers suggested Atlanta could win, but the gap between coaching staffs proved decisive. This week, the talent gap is again evident, but the Dolphins staff also doesn’t have the juice to close that gap. This needs to be a win for Atlanta, both to get back above .500 and prove they can put away bad football teams.
