Atlanta’s roster is set, but not in stone. Indeed, given some of the unexpected and downright peculiar choices the Falcons made yesterday, things are going to change.
To what extent, though, and where are the Falcons most likely to shuffle the deck for their 53 man roster? The state of the practice squad will help us answer that question, but we’re still in our snap reaction timeframe, so let’s react. I think we’ll wind up seeing at least small changes to the positions where the Falcons seem to have more depth than they can reasonably use, at the one position group where they seem perilously thin, and at a position group we’ve all been talking about.
The Falcons won’t carry seven WRs for long
The number of receivers on the roster was a slight surprise—I wasn’t sure they’d actually carry seven—but only a slight one. They signaled they’d keep Casey Washington all summer, and David Sills seemed pretty safe after his limited playing time with the starters.
But surely they won’t keep seven for long, right? We know that Drake London, Darnell Mooney, and Ray-Ray McCloud are locks because of their roles on offense, and we know KhaDarel Hodge and Jamal Agnew are essential special teams pieces. We also know that Washington has the increasing trust of the coaching staff, and that they seemingly view him as excellent insurance outside for Mooney and/or London. Sills won’t both be here all season, though.
Why? Consider the following:
- Darnell Mooney is currently hurt. We don’t know how long he’s going to be out, and given Atlanta’s extremely vague and borderline nefarious injury messaging, I don’t think it’s reasonable to assume he’s going to be out there Week 1. Once Mooney is healthy, the seventh wide receiver is going to be a gameday inactive. Chances are that Sills could be waived and make it to the practice squad at that point, in which case he could be active with a couple of elevations when needed. I’d expect Mooney’s return, whenever that may be, to result in a cut.
- The Falcons are precariously thin at other positions. Again, the practice squad will help them stock help, but there’s no situation in which seven receivers are getting run unless Mooney and someone else is hurt. Washington is here because the Falcons like him and they’re increasingly confident in his ability to fill in outside, something that will matter if Mooney’s not available, but it’s unlikely Sills will be able to carve out any type of gameday role if everyone else is healthy.
I like Sills—I championed him as a potential Falcons draft pick back in 2019—but his path to playing time is very limited unless someone gets hurt given his lack of pro special teams snaps and the sheer number of receivers already here. I think he’s one of the first ones out, and he, Chris Blair, and Nick Nash or Dylan Drummond could spend most of the season on the practice squad to give the Falcons quality insurance.
Ditto cornerback
The situation is similar here. Atlanta’s carrying seven corners and just three safeties, likely banking on Billy Bowman’s college safety experience in a pinch and their ability to get Jordan Fuller on to the practice squad, but that’s a
lot of corners. Dee Alford and Bowman may both get time at the nickel, but Clark Phillips and Natrone Brooks are likely parked unless something happens to A.J. Terrell or Mike Hughes. Mike Ford is a special teamer only who has chronically struggled in coverage when called upon to play corner.
Is it necessary to carry both Phillips and Brooks? Is Ford so essential on teams he needs to be on this roster? I suspect the answer to one of those questions is going to be no sooner than later, and it’s more likely to be the former. Phillips appears to have fallen out of favor with this coaching staff enough that it’s an open question whether he or Brooks would be the first to go, but I suspect the fact that they’ve snuck Brooks onto the practice squad multiple times will make him the man to go.
The difference between receiver and corner is the positional versatility; there’s a non-zero chance that the Falcons have decided that Bowman and perhaps one of Brooks/Phillips have the ability to take on fourth safety duties for now to allow them to save a roster spot in that group. I still struggle to see this team holding on to seven corners all season long.
Why four tight ends?
In an Arthur Smith offense, four tight ends would be the expectation. Last year, though, the Falcons looked more like the Rams and kept just three, with their third tight end having a vanishingly small role. This year they’ve kept four, though, and that was a genuine surprise.
The thinking here is pretty straightforward. With Kaleb McGary out and the team likely to trying to help their right tackle option of the present with run blocking in particular, keeping additional block-first tight ends means you have options on gameday. The Falcons could very well have Charlie Woerner and Feleipe Franks or Teagan Quitoriano on the field at the same time on early downs, with Kyle Pitts lining up out wide or off the field entirely, and count on Franks/Quitoriano to put in work on special teams.
Again, the return of Mooney could impact this position group. The Falcons like to roll out three wide receivers and one tight end, and that would mean that four tight ends would be wasted, even if TE3 is playing a significant role on special teams. I suspect Quitoriano would be the one to be waived and sent to the practice squad when that happens, making way for another defensive lineman or safety, but this is such a roster oddity for this coaching staff and this team that I’m not entirely sure when and how we’ll see things shake out.
Additions to the defensive line
You’ve got an attacking front, a coaching staff that has preached the importance of rotating often, and you have kept five down defensive linemen. That doesn’t seem to add up, especially when one of those players is older (David Onyemata) and three are largely unproven (Ruke Orhorhoro, Brandon Dorlus, LaCale London), and one seemingly falls in and out of favor with the team every few months (Zach Harrison). If your argument is “they have Ta’Quon Graham,” I’m very receptive—Graham is a quality, somewhat underrated player—but he’s set to miss at least four games to start the season.
Kentavius Street will likely hit the practice squad, and the Falcons may have Bralen Trice put his hand in the dirt occasionally when they feel they can work with a lighter front, which will allow them to mix and match a little more until Street burns through his elevations. But it would only take one injury to make this group perilously thin, and they’re going to be asking for fairly heavy snap loads from the guys they do have today. If the goal is to have a deep, capable group, there’s room for at least one more player here on the 53 man roster. I suspect the Falcons may have a waived player or two in mind to hold down the fort, at least until they get Graham back.
Tackle is going to evolve
I buy that the Falcons like Jack Nelson. They drafted him and they saw some progress in preseason, even if he still very much looked like a late round rookie. I get that Elijah Wilkinson, who has been working with Dwayne Ledford off and on for years, is a player they trust to man multiple positions and potentially start right now at right tackle. And I know that they must like Michael Jerrell enough to trade for him and give him a shot with Kaleb McGary lost for the year and Storm Norton out for now. That’s three options, two potentially for right now and one for the future.
But I don’t know if that group stands pat. Wilkinson has to prove he can hold down this job or Jerrell will come for it, and if Jerrell falters too, I don’t think the Falcons trust Nelson to step in for any length of time. There are a ton of tackles out there on waivers and soon to be the open market, and some of them are A) more experienced than Jerrell or Nelson and B) arguably better than any of these guys. If the goal is to make it until Norton is healthy without cratering the offense, it likely makes sense to add more help and sneak Nelson or Jerrell through to the practice squad if the team feels they can get away with it. You want quality insurance for times like these, and you can make a persuasive case the Falcons don’t have that today.
Maybe they don’t make an immediate move with other roster shuffling set to happen and a comfort level with Wilkinson and Jerrell the fanbase doesn’t share, but I’d expect this tackle group to shift and morph in the weeks ahead. We may even see Nelson hit the practice squad once Jerrell’s officially in the fold to make room for someone else.
What other changes do you see happening to this roster?
