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The Chargers will have a much tougher schedule in 2025. Does that mean they could fall short of expectations?
The
Chargers go from having one of the easiest schedules during the 2024 campaign to having one of the tougher slates in the league this upcoming campaign. They’re the only team in the league to begin the year with three consecutive divisional matchups and have one of the more difficult finishes to the season, facing four playoff games — as well as their other three AFC West matchups — within their final six games.
There is still plenty of time until the season arrives, meaning there’s a lot of time for things to continue changing with the Chargers (and around the NFL for that matter) but here’s our first take at predicting the team’s win-loss record based on the current moment.
Week One: Vs. Kansas City Chiefs in Sao Paulo, Brazil - L
I’ve taken this stance with the Chargers playing the Chiefs for several years now. Until the Chargers start, at minimum, splitting the series year after year, I can’t ever feel confident picking them to beat the Chiefs. Time and time again, they fail to make the necessary plays in the most critical moments to seize the game for themselves. Too often they allow Kansas City to end the game with the ball in their hands and until they can flip that script, this will continue to be a lopsided “rivalry.”
Week Two: @ Las Vegas Raiders - W
The Raiders added elite running back prospect Ashton Jeanty to their backfield and traded for a high-floor starting quarterback in veteran Geno Smith. That immediately makes this team much more competitive than they’ve been in recent years. Add in that All-Pro tight end Brock Bowers will likely be just as productive and you’ve got a real darkhorse in the AFC West. However, as good as the offense could be this year, the defense is still at a much worse place compared to the units for the Chiefs, Chargers, and Broncos.
I have the Raiders continuing to be in the basement of the division in 2025 until they can fix the other side of the ball.
Week Three: Vs. Denver Broncos - L
I do not think the Chargers improve enough along the interior of both the offensive and defensive lines. Mekhi Becton was a great addition at right guard, but leaving the other two spots up for grabs — potentially by the incumbent starters from a year ago — is not how I would have handled the group this offseason. As for the other side of the ball, the Chargers opted to try and replace defensive tackle Poona Ford by signing two cheap deals in Naquan Jones and Da’Shawn Hand. They also drafted nose tackle Jamaree Caldwell in the third round.
Will all of these moves be enough to compete against other squads with strong trench play? I’m just not certain of that right now. I think the group gets bullied a bit here by the Denver defense and they lose a close one at home.
Week Four: @ New York Giants - W
The Giants added a rookie quarterback in Jaxson Dart to grow with veteran additions Russell Wilson and Jameis Winston. They have budding star wideout Malik Nabers returning for year two and added Abdul Carter to a defense that already featured a strong pass rush.
I like the Giants to be better in 2025, but not good enough to compete here with the Chargers.
Week Five: Vs. Washington Commanders - L
Scrambling quarterbacks were an issue for the Chargers in 2024 and it remains to be seen if they will be better in that facet this season. Jayden Daniels was a menace to opposing defense, finishing second to Lamar Jackson in rushing yards by a quarterback with 891. The Commanders offense also added former
49ers standout Deebo Samuel at receiver to pair with Pro Bowler Terry McLaurin.
This should be a very fun game to watch, but I can’t help but feel like Daniels will simply make one or two back-breaking plays with his legs to help pull his team over the Chargers.
Week Six: @ Miami Dolphins - W
The
Dolphins were an offensive masterclass just two years ago but were just a shell of themselves in 2024 thanks to more injuries to quarterback Tua Tagovailoa. Even if Tua is healthy this year, I’m not buying the hype that they’ll be right back to who they were, especially after losing veteran left tackle Terron Armstead to retirement.
Week Seven: Vs. Indianapolis Colts - W
The Colts don’t know who their starting quarterback will be in 2025 and none of the names that are currently in the running lead me to believe they’ll be all that competitive this year. I think this is the closest thing to one of the Chargers’ “gimmes” this year.
Week Eight: Vs. Minnesota Vikings - L
This team won 14 games a year ago with a balanced offense and a very aggressive defense. I don’t have good thoughts about their new-and-improved defensive front going up against the Chargers interior offensive line. I think it’ll be a competitive game, but ultimately I see the likes of Justin Jefferson being the difference in this one, as long as quarterback J.J. McCarthy is everything the team hoped he’d be. The Vikings are a very well-built team, something that I think the Chargers COULD be, but not until next the 2026 season at the earliest.
Week Nine: @ Tennessee Titans - W
The Chargers get to face 2025 No. 1 pick Cam Ward in this one after he’s had the chance to play half a season of NFL football. The Titans don’t have an inspiring offensive unit around him, but their offensive line looks solid and the defense had an underrated year in 2024. I think game is closer than most would think, but the Chargers ultimately pull it out in a game I don’t think they can afford to drop with this schedule.
Week 10: Vs. Pittsburgh Steelers - W
At this point, I think it’s safe to assume if Aaron Rodgers will play anywhere in 2025, it’ll be with the
Steelers. With that in mind, I actually don’t think Rodgers will be any better for the team than Wilson/Fields was. He didn’t shine with a strong supporting cast with the Jets and I’d argue the Steelers are worse at WR/RB entering this year, even with the addition of D.K. Metcalf (balanced by the trading away of George Pickens).
I think the Chargers get some revenge from their loss in 2024 thanks to a stronger run game and (hopefully) a completely healthy Justin Herbert.
Week 11: @ Jacksonville Jaguars - W
The Jaguars were not a good team last season aside from some obvious budding star power from receiver Brian Thomas Jr. The team added Heisman winner Travis Hunter who will look to play on both sides of the ball. Will his presence be enough to make the Jaguars competitive in the AFC once again?
The defense will be fast and athletic once again. The offense only gained Hunter, and it remains to be seen if he will lean more into catching passes or catching picks. Either way, I don’t see how this team moved their needle in the right direction all that much.
Week 12: Bye
Finally, after two early byes in the 2023 and 2024 seasons, the Chargers finally land a late bye week to help them rest and rehabilitate before the toughest part of their schedule.
Week 13: Vs. Las Vegas Raiders - W
The Chargers have the expectation to be better in 2025 than they were in 2024. If they beat the Raiders twice last year, they must beat them twice once again. Just a the Raiders got better this offseason, so did the Chargers. Continuing to keep little brother as little brother is the goal here.
Week 14: Vs. Philadelphia Eagles - L
Just like the Vikings matchup, I think the Eagles are one of the best built teams in all of football, and honestly it may just be THE best roster in the NFL. After the way they handled the Chiefs in the
Super Bowl, I don’t see how they don’t do something similar to the Chargers, especially with the likes of Jalen Carter and Jordan Davis rushing against this iOL.
Week 15: @ Kansas City Chiefs - L
Same as before, the Chiefs own the Chargers until they prove otherwise.
Week 16: @ Dallas Cowboys - W
The Cowboys added former Steelers wideout George Pickens this offseason to pair with stud CeeDee Lamb. However, Dallas can’t just throw it all game long and they will have to get something out of their run game if they hope to be as good as their fans want them to be. I think the Chargers secondary does just enough, paired with a strong effort from the pass rush, to keep Dak Prescott from winning this one with his arm.
Week 17: Vs. Houston Texans - L
The
Texans have only gotten better since the wild card game in January. The Chargers, on the other hand, did not necessarily fix the gaping issue that caused them to lose that game in such a frustrating fashion. Unless the interior protection for Justin Herbert balls out for most of the season up to this point, I don’t see how it does not play another large role in this matchup.
Week 18: @ Denver Broncos - W
I cannot imagine the Chargers dropping the season series against the Broncos so they end the year by getting payback for their Week Three loss. With some of the new pieces on the team, that early divisional gauntlet could come with some bumps if the team is not able to gel together fast enough. By the final week of the regular season, I would expect no such hiccups. The team comes to play their best ball of the year in a trouncing of their AFC West rival.
Final Record: 10-7
The Chargers have higher expectations which may mean that any less than 11 wins could be seen as a step back. But after analyzing this schedule, I think the fan base should be over the moon if they can get to double-digit victories in consecutive seasons. A host of 2024 playoff teams and an improved AFC West around them could end up giving them more than they can handle, but that’s life in the NFL for teams hoping to earn the moniker of “contender.”
I can’t say I feel super confident in this prediction, however. The Athletic’s Daniel Popper predicted the team to go 9-8 this season and I could very well see that happening, as well. All that takes is for them to suffer a close loss to a divisional foe or have a head-scratching performance against a lesser opponent. They did the latter when they dropped one to the Cardinals on the road a season ago.
So what do you all think? Am I right on the money? Did I fall a game or two off in one direction or the other? Let me know what you all think in the comments below!
