July 31: Nightengale
reports that the talks between the two clubs are
“all but dead,” adding that Houston asked Minnesota to pay “about $50MM” of the $102.5MM remaining in Correa’s contract and also asked for an outfielder to be included in the deal. Nightengale adds that the Twins rejected that offer and
“aren’t budging” from that position. Rome
reports (alongside The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal) that talks between the sides have continued despite both sides downplaying the likelihood of a trade.
July 30, 12:37pm: The Astros approached the Twins about the possibility,
Chandler Rome and Dan Hayes of The Athletic report. Astros owner Jim Crane has “remained a fan” of Correa since his departure, they note, adding that the Twins believe Houston is perhaps the only destination to which Correa would green-light a trade. Nightengale
adds that Correa indeed would be open to returning to Houston and playing third base there. That said, Hayes and Rome echo Passan in writing that the two sides are far apart and a deal is not at all close.
12:07pm: The Twins and Astros have indeed talked about the possibility of a Correa trade but aren’t close to an agreement,
ESPN’s Jeff Passan reports.
9:52am: As the Astros seek help in the infield following injuries to
Isaac Paredes and
Jeremy Pena, they’ve looked into the possibility of bringing
Carlos Correa back to Houston,
as first reported by USA Today’s Bob Nightengale.
Phil Miller of the Minneapolis Star-Tribune writes that the two parties have had discussions on the possibility. MLB.com’s Brian McTaggart
adds that Houston’s interest “is real.” Nightengale adds that Houston remains interested in
Eugenio Suárez as well and has at least weighed the possibility of another run at
Nolan Arenado.
The Correa scenario presents a fascinating, if unexpected wrinkle to this summer’s deadline market. In the offseason, Twins president of baseball operations Derek Falvey
downplayed the possibility of trading his shortstop, and Correa himself voiced an affinity for Minnesota when asked about his no-trade clause at the time.
It’s fair to wonder whether either party’s stance has changed. The Twins have struggled through a sub-.500 four months of baseball and have minimal hope of reaching the postseason. The Pohlad family is exploring a sale of the team, and while that was true over the winter as well, the former front-runner to purchase the Twins, Justin Ishbia, has since instead reached a long-term agreement to become the majority stakeholder in the White Sox (where he was already a minority owner). On Correa’s end of things, returning to his original organization and jumping back into a playoff race would presumably be appealing.
Correa is still owed significant money. He signed a six-year, $200MM deal with four vesting options prior to the 2023 season. He’ll make a combined $92MM from 2026-28 and also still has about $11.6MM of this year’s salary yet to be paid out. The Twins would almost certainly have to pay down a portion of the contract to make a deal work.
Even if Minnesota did so, however, adding Correa back to the roster in Houston would send the Astros soaring past the luxury tax threshold. They’re currently about $4.5MM shy of that barrier,
per RosterResource. Owner Jim Crane was steadfastly against exceeding the tax threshold in the offseason — at least in most scenarios. His lone exception, it seemed, would have been for a reunion with
Alex Bregman. Whether Crane is feeling more urgency due to Houston’s litany of injuries or simply harbors some sentimentality for another former Astros star, one has to imagine he’s grown more comfortable crossing the tax threshold.
That Correa is in the midst of a sub-par season only further muddies the water. The 30-year-old hit brilliantly for the Twins last year in an injury-shortened campaign, batting .310/.388/.517 with his typical brand of strong defense at shortstop. He’s rebounded from a poor start in 2025 to an extent, but Correa’s .267/.319/.386 slash is slightly under league average (97 wRC+). Over his past 274 plate appearances, Correa is hitting .300 with a .350 on-base percentage but just a .423 slugging percentage. His power is down substantially this season, in part because his ground-ball rate has spiked to a 48.5% — its highest level in five years.
A renewed run at Arenado would register as something of a surprise. Arenado invoked his no-trade clause to nix a trade to Houston over the winter. Now that the Astros are in first place, he’d likely be more open to a move there. However, he’s in the midst of a third straight down year at the plate and is still owed substantial money.
Arenado, 34, is hitting a career-worst .235/.295/.367 in 390 plate appearances. By measure of wRC+, he’s been 16% worse than average at the plate. He remains a strong defensive third baseman but no longer draws top-of-the-scale grades from defensive metrics. He’s earning $32MM this year, $27MM next year and $15MM in 2027. It’s a steep price to pay for a former All-Star whose bat is has been on the downswing for several years now. The Cardinals would need to eat a major portion of the contract, but there’s still enough left on the deal that Arenado, too, would surely put Houston over the luxury threshold.
Suárez, owed $4.8MM for the remainder of the season, might not quite put the Astros over that edge, though the Diamondbacks could always include some cash to coax a more favorable return. The bidding on the 34-year-old slugger will be fierce, however, and Houston’s farm system is not as well regarded as some of the other teams who’ll be vying for Suárez and his 36 home runs. The Mariners, Cubs, Tigers, Phillies and Reds are among the teams also pursuing him.
Paredes could miss the remainder of the season — Nightengale notes that surgery is a consideration — but he’s controlled for an additional two years. Pena is on the mend from fractured ribs but is also controlled through 2027. Given the Astros’ multiple years of control over the left side of their infield, Suárez represents a cleaner fit than either Correa or Arenado. Paredes could slide over to second base in subsequent seasons if the Astros wind up with a new infielder who’s signed beyond the current season, but he’s played the vast majority of his career at third base.
Correa’s name hasn’t come up until this point, but the Twins are expected to be active sellers over the next two days. Righty
Chris Paddack was already moved to the Tigers, and rental players like
Willi Castro,
Harrison Bader and
Danny Coulombe are all expected to change hands as well. The more interesting element is whether the Twins will cave and trade anyone controlled longer-term. Relievers
Jhoan Duran and
Griffin Jax have been two of the most sought-after names on the bullpen market, and any contending team would love to add righty
Joe Ryan to its rotation. All three are controlled through 2027, however. Add in the new possibility of a Correa deal, and there’s plenty for the Minnesota front office to do over the next day and a half.
