With the trade deadline 10 days away, Cardinals president of baseball operations John Mozeliak said he plans to meet with
Nolan Arenado in the coming week (relayed by
John Denton of MLB.com). That’ll be an exploratory discussion to see if the 10-time Gold Glove winner has changed his mind at all regarding a potential trade. Arenado has full no-trade rights and famously invoked that clause to kill an offseason deal that would have sent him to Houston.
Arenado reportedly wanted more time to evaluate the Astros’ direction after they’d traded
Kyle Tucker. Offseason reporting suggested he was only interested in approving a deal to five clubs: the Yankees, Padres, Dodgers, Red Sox and potentially Astros once he had a better feel for their competitive outlook. Aside from Houston, none of those teams seemed to show much interest. They moved on to signing
Christian Walker when Arenado didn’t immediately accept a deal.
The Red Sox, Dodgers and Padres all have established third basemen. (
Max Muncy is currently on the injured list for L.A., but he’s expected back in August and the Dodgers
don’t intend to trade for third base help.) While Houston did just lose
Isaac Paredes to a hamstring strain, they’re within a few million dollars of the luxury tax threshold and are highly unlikely to trade for Arenado. The Yankees absolutely need a third baseman, yet
Jon Heyman of The New York Post wrote earlier this month that New York’s front office is concerned about Arenado’s declining offensive output in his mid-30s. That aligns with reporting from various Yankees beat writers dating back to the offseason which downplayed the team’s interest.
If Arenado’s trade preferences are unchanged, it’s very difficult to see a deal coming together. That’d probably remain the case even if he were willing to broaden his list of destinations. His bat has declined in three consecutive seasons. Arenado took a .241/.299/.381 slash line into tonight’s game — his worst numbers in a full season since his 2013 rookie year. He is playing on a $32MM salary, $5MM of which is covered by the Rockies. He’ll make $27MM next year (again with $5MM paid by Colorado) and $15MM in 2027. In this season and next, $6MM is deferred. It’s still a significant sum for a player who looks like a league average hitter at this point, even if he remains a quality defender.
Mozeliak acknowledged that as things currently stand, he “would envision (Arenado) being a part of this in the future.” That reflects the challenges of aligning on a deal, though the front office head added that “if something were to pop up, I would definitely discuss it with him.” In any case, the Cardinals appear increasingly likely to deal some veteran pieces. They’re
trying to find a taker for struggling starting pitcher
Erick Fedde. Reporting last week indicated they were
fielding interest on impending free agent relievers
Ryan Helsley,
Phil Maton and
Steven Matz.
That was before they got swept by the Diamondbacks in their first series out of the All-Star Break. The NL Central looks to be a two-horse race between the Cubs and Brewers. The Cards have dropped four games behind the Padres for the final Wild Card spot with the Reds and Giants in between them. They’ve gone 4-10 this month (pending the result of tonight’s game in Colorado). After outperforming expectations for much of the season, they’re hitting a skid right as the time comes for the front office to pick a direction.
Mozeliak acknowledged the downward trend, especially the recent sweep, in sounding more amenable to selling. “Clearly the weekend was not what we wanted to see, and now we’ve got to understand what the future looks like,” he told reporters (link via
Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch). “Where we are in the standings definitely affects our decision-making moving forward at the deadline. Playing those three games and losing all three is not helpful. (We) wanted to come out of the break having a positive start to it. We didn’t. As we reflect on what’s best for the organization, there is the longer view in terms of: Are there decisions that we can make that will better situate the franchise in 2026 and beyond?”
The team still has a bit of runway to pull back into the race. They should expect to win the series against the Rockies, and a sweep isn’t outlandish. They’ll then have a direct matchup with one of their top competitors, as they host the Padres for four games to close out the week. They’ll welcome the Marlins to Busch Stadium for the final three games before the deadline.
