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My impression as a fan is that the first draft class of general manager Ryan Poles is mildly disappointing. How does this class compare to the historical performance markers available to us?
So, one of the side effects of having
just completed a massive project looking at a decade of outcomes for players taken in the
NFL draft is that those spreadsheets are still there when the project is published. For some of us, that means that it makes sense to
do something with that data. And it supposedly takes three years to evaluate a draft class. And it’s been three years since the 2022 NFL draft.
Overview
By far the most straightforward way of approaching all of this is to get a “ballpark” guess on how well Ryan Poles did. Taking each of the drafted players taken at a given spot (for example, pick #71) across all 10 years under study and prorating the results to 60% to acknowledge that every player still has two remaining years of playing time should at least tell me
in general if Poles was a dramatic failure or success in some regard. To be honest, because he made three picks in Round 7 and some of those were at places where a player wasn’t always recorded in the Draft Research Project charts, I simply expected the same of all Round 7 players averaged at the three places he drafted.
This sort of airport napkin math tells me that Ryan Poles should have already managed to get 253 games and 131 starts out of the eleven players he selected in 2022. He did not. Instead, his players contributed 344 games and 143 starts. That means that he got
ahead by 91 games and 12 starts. It’s tempting to say that the disparity is because those players were drafted to a bad team with roster holes, but I am using the positional reference points of other players drafted to teams in roughly the 7th position in the draft.
This is the sort of jarring result that made me want to add performance numbers to players whenever possible, so it seems important to break down the players one-by-one instead of looking at just time on the field. Along the way, I will offer the traditional “grades” for each player as informed by this data.
#39) Kyler Gordon
Adjusted for being only three seasons into the first five years, if Kyler Gordon had been a first-round pick at cornerback, he should be on track for 34 games, 26 starts, and 27 DVDs at 60% value for his first five years. The median values (instead of mean values) would ask for 36 games, 27 starts, and 28 DVDs. Instead, Gordon has already played in 42 games and made 34 starts, and he has recorded 27.5 DVDs. Of particular note, if he were a median first-round corner by this point he should have 4 interceptions (or 3 if you prefer to compare him to the mean). He instead has 5.
By contrast, scaled for 60% playing opportunity to date, a cornerback taken in the first half of the second round (i.e. where Gordon was actually drafted) would on average 32 games, 22 starts, and 20 DVDs. In simple terms, Gordon is ahead of schedule and is outperforming precedent by a full round worth of value.
If we were assigning grades, this would have to be a full-credit A.
#48) Jaquan Brisker
At the time of the draft, Brisker was considered a steal, and that has been proven correct during his first three years in the league. Second-round safeties average 60 games and 45 starts with only 32 DVDs. Since Brisker was taken in the exact middle of the second round, it seems fair to use the entire cohort for comparison. He should therefore have 36 games and 27 starts by now, with 19 DVDs. While he only has 35 games, he has made 35 starts (ahead of schedule for a first-rounder by 1 game), and he has turned in 30 DVDs. He needs a single DVD in each of the next two seasons to match the marks for safeties drafted in the second round, and he is already 4 ahead of schedule for a
first-round safety (basically in the form of his high number of sacks).
Brisker is a disruptive force when he’s on the field, and so far, he is on the field for roughly an average amount of the time for a second-round player. In all other ways, he is a slightly above-average first-round safety who was taken in the second round.
This is another A.
#71) Velus Jones, jr.
Both of the second-rounders are therefore outperforming any reasonable expectations for them to this point. With that spoonful of sugar out of the way, it’s time for a dose of rather bitter medicine. Velus Jones is as close as it is possible to get to being an “obvious bust” for a third-round player. A fully average third-round receiver should tally 48 games and 26 starts with just under 11 touchdowns and around 1800 yards from scrimmage, and a receiver drafted in the first half of the third round should have 3 extra starts, an additional touchdown, and another 100 yards from scrimmage.
“VJJ” should be at 29 games and 16 starts with 7 touchdowns and 1140 yards. He is instead at 27 games, 2 starts, 2 touchdowns, and 300 yards from scrimmage. Of note, he is also no longer with Chicago. Had he been drafted during the time of the draft research project, he would have qualified for the “bottom third” of his cohort despite being drafted near the top of the third round. By most measures, he performed more closely to a 6th- or 7th-round pick.
This is an F, but it’s not a 0.
#168) Braxton Jones
I have previously explained at length that despite my own ambivalence toward him, left tackle Braxton Jones, has played in every way like an average
first-round offensive tackle, and that includes exceeding the marks for games played and games started (he should be at 38 and 36 respectively, and he is instead at 40 in both categories).
This is another A, and a teacher who believed in extra credit at all might be tempted to offer some here.
#174) Dominique Robinson
The 24 edge defenders taken in the fifth-round from 2011 to 2020 were arguably uninspiring unless they were named Matt Judon. There were clear success stories, but they were not the norm. Across their first five years, they average out to 37 games and 8 starts with 22 DVDs, but the median level of performance is actually 30 games, 3 starts, and 7 DVDs.
To date, Robinson has 30 games, 8 starts, and 8 DVDs. What that means is that if Robinson were to be cut this summer and never again play in the NFL, he would still be in the
top half of fifth-round edge rushers. He is on track for 50 games, 15 starts, and 13 DVDs. That places him more or less on track to be in the bottom third of
fourth-round edge rushers. In other words, he is actually slightly outperforming his draft status.
This is a C+, but the argument could be made for a B-.
#186) Zachary Thomas
Thomas has played 17 games for 3 teams, none of them Chicago. His 339 snaps in other uniforms have been unremarkable. Being as generous as possible, he is on track to have the correct number of total games played for an offensive lineman drafted in his position, even if he is in the bottom third of all performers because of his lack of starts. And, of course, he is no longer with the team that drafted him or either of the two teams that signed him after that.
This is an F, and it’s actually a 0.
#203) Trestan Ebner
Ebner played 17 games for Chicago and recorded 62 total yards from scrimmage. He had two more fumbles than touchdowns, which means he had two fumbles. That seems harsh, so let’s amend to say that he has as many first downs as fumbles. He is almost exactly on the line to be in the bottom third of all sixth-round running backs.
This is a D.
#207) Doug Kramer
If you are looking for what to expect from a
typical sixth-round offensive lineman, instead of one of the success stories, look to Doug Kramer. After five years, the median such player is at 22 games and 5 starts (with mean performance closer to 27 and 15), so Kramer being on track for 30 games and no starts places him above average as a role-player or a little disappointing as a starter. Still, about 40% of all offensive lineman drafted in the sixth round never have a start in their first five years, so Kramer is pretty typical for a 6th-rounder whose team has found ways to use him.
This is a C.
#226) Ja’Tyre Carter
The seventh round is weird for offensive linemen. An eighth of them go on to become regular
starters, and that seems like an unreasonable expectation. And it is. The median offensive line player taken in the 7th round will play in 15 games and start only 1; Ja’Tyre Carter played in 13 games for Chicago and started 2. If he sticks with the Panthers and works his way onto the field, he might be able to improve his personal results. For now, he is essentially a midlevel pick of his type for the GM who took him.
This is another C.
#254) Elijah Hicks
What do you expect out of a 7th-round safety? If you answered “not much”, you would be surprised. The average is actually 38 games and 13 starts with 10 DVDs (almost one per start). Mid-level performance would be 44 games, 6 starts, and 6 DVDs.
Hicks has a disappointing performance here. He has already hit 44 games and 15 starts, but he has only 3 DVDs (and they are all merely pass defenses without an interception, instead of the more impactful plays like interceptions or sacks). An “average” player of his draft status at 60% would have 1 interception and 2 combined sacks/tackles for a loss, and he has none of that. To be fair, defensive backs frequently “ramp up” as they continue playing, so those values could trend up. Still, Hicks has gotten above-average playing time with slightly below-average results.
This is probably a C-.
#255) Trenton Gill
He’s the first of two punters that Ryan Poles drafted in his first three years as general manager. That seems sufficient summary at this point. I originally had this as an F, but being fair it’s a D because the Bears did get some very marginal utility out of Gill.
Keeping Score
For those of you who just want everything in one place, this means that Poles had three dramatic successes, finding first-round equivalent players without a single first-round pick. He had three chalk picks who performed almost exactly according to expectations in the form of Dominique Robinson, Ja’Tyre Carter, and Doug Kramer. He then has Elijah Hicks, who has had above-average playing time with below-average impact. Finally, he has four misses later on–Velus Jones, Zachary Thomas, Trestan Ebner, and Trenton Gill. In any fair assessment, then, the 2022 draft class is a resounding success. Even in the last day of the draft, where fan wisdom has him failing to perform, half of his picks are above average or at least average, one is questionable, and only three are legitimately questionable.
Weighting all of the grades by the value of the draft picks used, but not giving any special bonus for finding three first-round–equivalent players without a first-round pick, Poles would get an 88% for his first draft. That’s a B+, which feels too low for a draft that found three players who are producing at a first-round level, but it also feels too high for my emotional impression of the class. That suggests that it might be correct after all?
On Performance vs Perception
So what gives? After this supposedly amazing draft class, the Bears proceeded to have the worst record in football and this class has yet to participate in a winning season. In general, when a football team’s talent does not seem to match its performance, there are two obvious places to look–the quarterback and the coach.
For the first two years these players were on the team, the two strongest limiting factors on Chicago’s performance were a quarterback who is now on his third team for his fifth year in the NFL and a head coach who became the first such man fired by Chicago midseason. That assumes, probably incorrectly, that there were no other flaws with the roster and they did not have typical rookie growing pains (and remember that those pains are baked into the averages used for this comparison).
As a thought exercise, imagine a football game in which the starting quarterback throws a Pick-6 and is subsequently pulled from the game. The backup comes in at halftime pulls an Orlovsky, stepping out of the endzone for a safety. The team is now down by at least 9 and the other side has the ball. Even if the backup then leads a successful drive, the team is still losing.
The easiest explanation for why these results contradict my own expectations is that the trade for Fields undermined the Bears in the first place, and Poles then metaphorically stepped out of the back of the endzone when he hired Matt Eberflus as the coach. The 2022 class for the
Chicago Bears was drafted onto a team that was “behind”, and while they arguably helped to improve the team, their above-average contributions as individuals to overcome the collective disadvantages weighing on the team.
On some level, as well, there is a perception issue. To me, Dominique Robinson is a disappointment because I do not compare him to other fifth-round edges. I instead compare him to other fifth-round edges who have lasted long enough in the NFL to stand out and leave an impression on me. There is a very strong case of survivorship bias distorting my perceptions. However, Robinson is actually fine or a little better than fine.
With the advantage of this context, I still do not know if I believe that the 2022 draft class deserves the B+ grade assigned above, because it is easy to focus on the mistakes while also criticizing the decisions of which positions were drafted. However, with strong evidence that the best trench players tend to go early and a lack of an early pick, this complaint boils down to wanting Poles to get similar above-average results only at more premium positions. I’m fairly sure that’s not how drafting works.
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