Photo by Don Juan Moore/Getty Images
It’s finally draft week! For Chicago Bears fans, this signals the last significant piece to the offseason puzzle before a three month long wait until Training Camp. We’ll dive into plenty of draft thoughts, a future cap outlook, and what to expect post-draft.
One of the best sports weekends of the year is here. The 2025
NFL Draft will kick off Thursday night in Green Bay, and all 32 teams will go into the first round with their own selection for the first time in a while. After one of the more shallow classes in recent memory last year, the top end of this class isn’t looking much better. After finishing with a disappointing (5-12) record in 2024, the
Chicago Bears are projected to make a Top 10 selection for the third straight year. Some might argue that their final win of the season against the
Packers was more damaging than rewarding, but good general managers find talent, regardless of where they are picking.
That’s what general manager Ryan Poles will be looking to do. After an active start to free agency that saw him land five impact players, the Bears have remained largely silent over the last month. We’ll dive into what to expect from Chicago next weekend and how their future cap outlook could influence how they approach the draft. It’s time to get into all that and more in a special draft edition of 10 Bears Takes.
1. For Bears fans, heading into the draft without a single glaring starting need for the upcoming season must feel good.
We’ve all been here before, right? The Bears go out, make some promising coaching hires, are aggressive in free agency, and cap it off with what everyone feels is an A+ draft class. Optimism runs high through training camp and the preseason, and then once it’s time to deliver on that hype, they fall flat on their face and end up picking in the Top 10 the next year.
I won’t convince myself that things will be different until we see how it plays out in the regular season. Luckily for Bears fans, Jaylon Johnson will make sure to keep everyone grounded. Even so, things do feel different this time around, don’t they? For the first time in forever, it appears that the front office has addressed the issues that everyone else with eyes has been seeing. At least on paper, the offensive line is no longer a giant mess filled with coaching and front office favorites. They went out, spent the resources, and brought in three plus-starters for the interior. The defensive line has been an issue since Vic Fangio departed for Denver in 2019, but it appears that they are finally realizing that simply trying to draft and develop a league-average defensive line wasn’t going to be good enough, and it would take too much time.
This isn’t to say that the Bears aren’t going into next weekend without clear areas of improvement. The offensive line needs more youthful depth to be developed. The defense line needs more pass rushers. Running back has a renewed sense of value with Ben Johnson taking over as the head coach and offensive play caller. Tight end, receiver, safety, and linebacker could all use starting-caliber upside, too.
Here’s the reality: Even the best teams in the league have some semblance of needs going into an offseason, especially the draft. The bigger key is that there isn’t really one area on the depth chart at a starting position where you can look and say, “hey, if this doesn’t get addressed, it’s going to be a huge problem”. That’s not something Bears fans have been able to say for nearly a decade now.
This roster still needs work. Again, there’s no denying that. The trenches need to remain a priority, and there are unknowns to their plans starting next year due to their lack of cap fluidity. Don’t be surprised to see a currently filled starting position or two be addressed early in the draft. Left tackle, safety, and tight end are the three areas that I have my eye on. Regardless of how the first round plays out, the Bears are going into this draft at a position of strength. It’s time for fans to embrace it and hope that this is the last time we’ll see them selected anywhere near the Top 10 for the foreseeable future.
2. With the second wave of free agency following the draft, fans shouldn’t expect them to get too involved.
It took a while, but the contract details for all of the Bears’ offseason moves (outside of T.J. Edwards’ new extension) have finally hit Over The Cap. Barring any additional moves before the draft, Chicago’s roster sits at 72 players. That gives them room for their seven projected draft picks and a combination of 11 undrafted free agents and veterans from their rookie mini camp at the beginning of May.
Currently, the
Bears rank 29th in the league with $8.932 million in available cap space. After taking out their projected “effective” cap charge of $6.785 million for the upcoming draft class, they sit at $2.148 million in true “effective” space. Once September hits, there will be another $8 to $9 million in cap charges over the life of the season, which includes their practice squad ($4 million), any addition deal cap hits from dead money on players cut (primarily undrafted free agents, which usually ranges from $500,000 to $1 million), any additional costs from the two additional roster spots to get to 53 players counting against the cap, and finally, any in-season costs (injured reserve, roster moves, etc).
If you’re like me, fast-forwarding to account for all costs within a season is something I like to do when looking at available cap space. Assuming a $9 million cost for the in-season accounting we just covered, the Bears are in the negative for the first time in a while with their “true” available cap space.
Some of the projected numbers are loose, but it’s a good way to better understand what the Bears are working with over the final few months of the offseason, which is basically zero extra cap space. I’d fully expect them to create some breathing room, especially when accounting for a few extensions that we should see in the coming months. I’ll dive into that more a bit later but it wouldn’t surprise me to see them clear an additional $10-$15 million in space, just to have some wiggle room and ability to make a few moves around the cut-down deadline in early September.
Following their five big moves, the Bears have executed three extensions and 12 additional signings, all but one of which have been under $1.6 million. That should give fans an idea of their mindset, at least in the short term. The good news is that veteran minimum signings count for little to nothing against the cap, primarily because their lowest accounted-for contract is $1.03 million. That figure will go up once they have their draft class under contract.
We’ll have to see where their roster stands following the draft, but this is usually around the time when veterans still on the market will wait until the beginning of May to sign, because teams will have a better idea of where their roster is after the draft. At that point, any available free agent doesn’t count against the compensatory pick formula, and it allows those players to get the most out of the secondary market. Until then, Bears fans can feel safe not refreshing Twitter (or their favorite sports news app) for the next few weeks.
3. If I were ranking priorities for the Bears for draft weekend, here’s how I’d have them ranked.
1. Defensive End
2. Running Back
3. Safety
4. Offensive Line
5. Defensive Tackle
6. Linebacker
7. Tight End
8. Wide Receiver
9. Cornerback
Some of you might look at this list and wonder why I have positions like safety higher than defensive tackle or wide receiver. I totally understand it, and a few weeks ago, these wouldn’t have been rankings when it came to the team’s needs either. We’ll get more into it soon, but the team’s future cap outlook has much to do with why I’ve reshaped some of my viewpoints on the Bears’ roster.
For now, we’ll focus on this list and why I have them where I do. Defensive end feels like the most obvious. Sure, they spent big money on Dayo Odeyingbo, after spending big money on Montez Sweat two trade deadlines ago, but the depth behind those two is unproven, at best. The team obviously hopes that second-year edge rusher Austin Booker can make a sizable leap, but that’s more of a wish than a realistic hope heading into the draft. Behind Booker are Daniel Hardy, Dominique Robinson, and Jamree Kromah. Depth is already a question mark, but if one of the starters goes down, this could get ugly quickly. Without getting into much detail about each prospect, I believe that the Bears’ sweet spot for taking an edge rusher is more likely in the second round. Defensive coordinator Dennis Allen prefers long, tall defensive linemen, and this isn’t a top-heavy class. In my opinion, the quality of talent found at No. 10 overall is similar to that at No. 39 or No. 41, so I would wait.
Poles and his staff did an outstanding job of readjusting to the market once Trey Smith received the franchise tag in Kansas City. On the surface, it wasn’t a great free agent class, leading to many overpays. Instead, the Bears struck twice before the start of free agency with the trade acquisitions of Jonah Jackson and Joe Thuney. Funny enough, I was worried about the shortage of left guard options on the market, and somehow Chicago ended up with two players who have spent most of their NFL careers occupying the left side of the line. After completing the interior rebuild with the signing of center Drew Dalman, it would be easy for the team to rest on its laurels. Here’s the reality: Thuney will be 33 in November. Even with a short-term extension, he’s not a long-term solution. Jackson is 28, and although his familiarity with Ben Johnson shouldn’t be overlooked, the Bears aren’t going to keep him next year at his current $25 million cap hit. That doesn’t mean they’ll outright cut him, but his future beyond 2025 is far from certain, even with a recently signed one-year extension. Couple that with left tackle Braxton Jones being in a contract year, and suddenly, the future beyond 2025 on the offensive line doesn’t seem so certain, does it?
Whether it be left tackle or developmental interior depth, I’d be shocked if the Bears don’t use at least one of their first four selections along the offensive line. Considering the futures of Jackson and Jones, a strong argument for two offensive linemen in the first four picks could be made.
Luckily for the Bears, this is a historically deep running back class. Ashton Jeanty gets the headlines and deservedly so, but Chicago should be able to land a quality player with one of their first four picks, which could end up being their third-round selection. I’m 100% team Jeanty at 10 (if he makes it there), but I also understand that positional value plays a role. On the surface, it might look arrogant for Poles to take a running back, just a month after reworking one of the worst offensive lines in football since taking over the team back in 2022. No matter when the pick is made, I expect running back to be a top priority for Johnson and his offense.
Safety and tight end follow similar thought processes for me. On the surface, both position groups appear in good shape for the upcoming season. At safety, Kevin Byard will be 32 and is in the last year of his contract. His running mate, Jaquan Brisker, is also in the final year of his four-year rookie deal but has missed an alarming amount of time over the last two seasons with concussion issues. The depth behind them is totally fine, but there’s limited upside, even if you’re someone who has faith that Brisker can remain healthy and regain his form. Tight end feels safer with a quality middle-of-the-road player in Cole Kmet. It’s fair to wonder if he has the needed skill set to thrive in Johnson’s offense. Depth behind Kmet is not ideal, with Durham Smythe on a one-year deal and then a group of players who have rarely seen the field in their NFL careers. I’m not sure they’ll have enough premium picks to fill both spots (barring a trade down of value), but at minimum, it wouldn’t be a surprise to see one of these positions taken much higher than most fans expect heading into the draft.
Linebacker is another sneaky need beyond 2025. The obvious depth concerns came into focus after Jack Sanborn signed a one-year deal with Dallas to follow his former head coach. Looking beyond this season, T.J. Edwards is the only starting-caliber player that is likely to be under contract for 2026, unless they re-work Tremaine Edmunds’ deal. Even if you believe that their depth is “good enough” right now, plenty of questions will crop up between now and 2026. Right now, I’d bet on them cutting Edmunds to save over $15 million and finding ways to add new faces into that room.
Defensive tackle and receiver would have been much higher on this list, had it not been for free agency. Given his age, adding Grady Jarrett was a bold choice, but with a quality three-man rotation, a nose tackle becomes a much more obtainable depth piece to find later in the draft or during the second wave of free agency. The team’s top two receivers are in place for the foreseeable future, which is great. The depth behind them could use some work, but using Detroit as a reference, having a competent group behind their top two is much more important than having another Keenan Allen-like presence. They seem to be targeting speed, and there’s plenty of that in the later rounds.
Finally, although no team can ever have enough good cornerbacks, the Bears’ depth chart is pretty stocked at the position. Unless this new defensive coaching staff isn’t confident in Tyrique Stevenson, this should be one of the last priorities on their list heading into the draft.
Photo by Michael Reaves/Getty Images
4. Although general manager Ryan Poles shouldn’t be drafting purely based on need, his future cap outlook could directly impact how he stacks his board in the opening rounds.
A few weeks back, I did a more
in-depth breakdown of the Bears’ current salary cap outlook. My primary focus was on this season, but after digging deeper and projecting a few moves, I realized that their days of being a team with the league’s most cap space are over. Considering how much they’ve spent the last few offseasons, that shouldn’t surprise most. Fans just have to hope that the quality of talent is much improved and that Poles and his front office can sustain success, if they experience it.
Having your starting quarterback on a rookie deal is one of the best values in the sport. That doesn’t mean cap management becomes a breeze, but it’s much easier when you’re not spending $50-60 million annually on one position.
Without getting into too much detail that has already been covered, the Bears’ cap outlook for 2026 will be much tighter, especially with a few extensions (that we will discuss later). Of their $41.22 million in projected cap space for 2026, all but $5-$10 million of that will be eaten up by extensions, this rookie class, and getting to the 51-man minimum for cap accounting purposes. This means that tough decisions will need to be made on players under contract (i.e, Edmunds, Swift, etc) and pending free agents like Joe Thuney, Braxton Jones, and Jaquan Brisker.
Contrary to popular belief, the cap is not a myth and can only be manipulated to a certain extent, at least in a responsible way. For a team like the Bears, which hasn’t had a winning record since 2018, the lessons of past mistakes are of recent vintage. The last thing that Poles can afford to do is sell out too early and completely blow their window if things don’t go according to plan.
Because of that, the next few draft classes become even more important to this franchise’s future success. It’s always fun to “win” the offseason at the moment, but the best teams are never built in free agency. This leads me to believe that the Bears will look toward the future more than usual when making their selections.
Left tackle, right guard, running back, tight end, and linebacker are all positions that stand out as areas that could have extra emphasis. In a weak free agent market that just saw a below-average left tackle like Dan Moore get a four-year, $82 million contract, it’s easy to wonder how that will impact the Bears’ plans for their offensive line. Jones, albeit inconsistent, is a considerably better player than Moore. Even with a “hometown discount”, Jones’ market likely starts in the $22-$25 million range. Considering the financial investment made in the interior offensive line and Darnell Wright going into Year 3, can Chicago really afford to pay Jones the money he’ll get on the open market? Some of that might depend on what they decide to do with the futures of Thuney and/or Jackson.
As fun as Brisker is when he’s on the field, the safety market has shifted over the last few offseasons. This year alone, Trevon Moehrig ($17 million), Jevon Holland ($15.1 million), Cam Bynum ($15 million), Talanoa Hufanga ($13 million), and Justin Reid ($10.5 million) all received annual values over the $10 million marker. Considering the former second-round pick’s concussion history, is an extension a wise financial decision for this team to make, even if he comes at a discount?
We’ll see what D’Andre Swift can produce in Year 2, but he has not come close to living up to his three-year, $24 million contract that was signed last offseason. Speaking of not living up to free agent contracts, Edmunds feels like a virtual lock to be on the chopping block next offseason, especially after the recent extension for Edwards. Factor in all of this, and all of a sudden, multiple holes are moving into next year with less cap flexibility if they aren’t addressed in this year’s draft.
This isn’t meant to panic fans or cast a bad light on this offseason. It’s simply a different perspective that should challenge the Bears to look ahead and fill some of these holes before they become glaring. The best teams in football draft well and don’t usually retain everybody. Although Chicago is still a long way from having that “problem”, the best way to start building toward it is to hit on a large portion of their seven draft picks.
5. Following the draft, the next move should be another extension: What a Joe Thuney could look like, and more thoughts on Kyler Gordon and T.J. Edwards’ extensions.
Two extension candidates came to mind when discussing the Bears’ future cap outlook: Gordon and Thuney. With Gordon now done, the focus should turn to extending Thuney so he can finish his borderline Hall of Fame career in Chicago.
For Thuney, the urgency of getting a deal done in the coming months should grow. It’s hard to envision a scenario where Poles gave up a 2026 4th-round selection for one year of the veteran. Although I know it’s easy to point toward the acquisition of Keenan Allen last year as an example of Poles doing the opposite. The market is set at guard, and it’s relatively easy to project an extension for him. Fortunately for the Bears, a 32-year-old player isn’t going to hit the very top of the market. Assuming both sides are motivated to get something done, I wouldn’t be surprised to see this done before the team gets to training camp in late July.
Thuney is arguably one of the top five interior linemen in football, but age will play a part in any new deal. Landon Dickerson of the Eagles holds the highest annual average value for a long-term deal, at $21 million per year over four years. He signed the deal at 26. There’s been talk that Trey Smith will eventually eclipse that at around $23 million per year, but there’s been no reported progress on a deal getting done in Kansas City. This is another reason why the Bears would be smart to finalize something before Smith resets the market.
The four-time
Super Bowl champion will turn 33 in November, which makes any extension relatively short-term. Luckily for Chicago, he hasn’t shown signs of slowing down, but giving Thuney anything beyond an additional two years guaranteed doesn’t seem likely. Here’s what a potential deal could look like and how it could help the Bears clear some additional room for this season.
Projected contract terms: Three years, $60 million with $36 million guaranteed.
The 60% guarantee is in line with the other top-of-the-market deals. This allows Thuney to get a nice pay raise, while also securing an additional two guaranteed years that would carry him through his age-34 season. The Bears could take his $15.5 million base salary for 2025 and convert most of that into a signing bonus. It wouldn’t impact their cash budget for this year, but it would allow them to prorate around $12 million of his base salary over a four-year period. It would save them around $9 million this year, while adding a $3 million dead cap charge per year for the life of his extension. Assuming they gave him a flat $20 million per year, he would have cap hits of $23 million from 2026 through 2028. His guaranteed money would run out after 2027. The Chicago Tribune’s Brad Biggs brought up a scenario where they could take on a few void years, to help lower his cap hits in the moment, but then there would be a flat charge that would toll after the end of his contract. That would be right about when they’d have to start paying Caleb Williams (if all goes well), so there’s some risk involved there, too.
Things were a little less urgent for Gordon, but the situation had become much less complicated over the last month, thanks to other deals being completed. Make no mistake: Poles did everything he could to retain his first-ever draft pick as general manager. Gordon deserves it, and both Johnson and Allen have called him out by name as a player they both really like. Poles also called him a “priority” when he was asked about Gordon at the NFL Owners’ Meetings. Once Pitre’s deal was done, simply topping his annual value and guarantees was enough to put ink to paper before the draft.
The cornerback market has gone up substantially over the last two offseasons. Jaylon Johnson’s four-year, $76 million extension seemed like big money then. Now, he finds himself as the league’s 13th-highest-paid cornerback. Remember, there’s a vast difference when discussing boundary corners and nickels. That’s where the difference in valuation could come in. Derek Stingley’s $30 million annual average leads the league for boundary players. Jalen Pitre’s recently signed three-year, $39 million deal with just over $29 million guaranteed once again bumped the nickel market. Nate Hobbs led all nickel backs with an average of $12 million annually for about a month. Kenny Moore and Jourdan Lewis sit at $10 million annually, while Michael Carter comes in slightly above at $10.25 million per year. The start of the new league year was the first point at which both sides could come to an agreement. Luckily for both sides, the market became much easier to project with a handful of deals reflecting the new “elite” crop of players at the position. For Gordon, this allows him to test free agency again at 29. We’ll see how much the market goes up in the meantime, but his three-year deal keeps him in Chicago for at least the next three seasons, which is a win for both sides.
Shortly following Gordon’s new deal, Edwards was next in line to get new money. His two-year, $20 million extension carries roughly $11 million in new guarantees, despite it being reported at $16.6 million guaranteed at signing. The Bears will effectively guarantee Edwards his $5.4 million base salary for this year and next year’s cap hit.
I’ll be honest and say I’m not sure I understand the rush with the veteran linebacker. The back half of last year was a rough look for Edwards, and he’ll be 30 before the start of 2026. Local guy or not, I’m not sure extending an athletically-limited linebacker at age 30 makes a lot of sense. Edwards has been a good value for what he is, but Allen and his defensive staff should be pushing for younger, cheaper options at linebacker. Maybe the deal works out, and they will get three good years out of Edwards. If not, this could look very similar to the Danny Trevathan deal, where he was virtually unplayable by the final year of his guarantees.
6. My Top 10 favorite offensive players in the 2025 NFL Draft class.
- RB Ashton Jeanty (Boise State)
- OT Josh Simmons (Ohio State)
- iOL Grey Zable (North Dakota State)
- TE Colston Loveland (Michigan)
- OL Donovan Jackson (Ohio State)
- iOL Jared Wilson (Georgia)
- WR Kyle Williams (Washington State)
- WR Pay Bryant (Illinois)
- RB Bhayshul Tuten (Virginia)
- TE Elijah Arroyo (Miami)
Although this isn’t an overly deep class at the top of a class where many teams are likely to find impact players late into Day 3, there’s still a lot of talent to like (on both sides of the ball) in the first few rounds of the draft. Fortunately for Poles and the Bears, they currently hold four of the draft’s first 72 selections. Normally, when a team hires an offensive-minded head coach, the primary focus will be zoned in on that side of the ball. It’s been a relatively even split through free agency, especially considering that the ball’s defensive side was much more established in March.
That’s a short way of saying I would expect a similar approach throughout their projected seven picks. Assuming the Bears make seven selections next weekend, I’d expect a split of four offense and three defense or vice versa. Even if the Bears make three picks on the offensive side of the ball, there’s plenty of talent to be added.
Jeanty is one of my few true “draft crushes”, which isn’t really going out on a limb, considering he’s one of the few elite talents in this class. Barring a surprise, I don’t see him last until 10, but if he does, the Bears shouldn’t hesitate to run to the podium to make the selection. I might be in the minority in Chicago, but I’d prefer not to see them take Will Campbell if he makes it to 10. I prefer Armand Membou to Campbell, but neither of them is likely to be on the board at 10. Simmons isn’t a player I’d take at No. 10 overall, but in a trade-down scenario in the first round or a trade-up from the second round, the Ohio State product could make a lot of sense. For my money, he’s the best pure left tackle in this class. Health is the biggest factor now.
At one point, Zable felt like a “lock” to be considered for one of the Bears’ second-round selections. After a strong
Senior Bowl and impressive combine, there’s a strong feeling that he’ll make his way into the back half of the first round. Similar to some of the other small-school tackles that have transitioned to the interior, I feel that Zabel’s ceiling is sky-high, and he’ll be considered one of the better interior players by the end of his rookie deal. Similar to Quinn Meinerz.
Again, maybe I’m on an island with this take, but I have Loveland as my TE1 going into next week’s draft. Tyler Warren has been getting plenty of love and rightfully so due to his final season at Penn State. Loveland was the victim of an anemic offensive attack in Michigan, but I believe he’s a better fluid athlete than Warren. Even if his physical profile doesn’t guarantee a quality inline blocker, he reminds me a lot of Sam LaPorta coming out of Iowa. Loveland may never become an elite blocker, but he will be a weapon as a receiver, especially over the seam.
Jackson and Wilson are in a similar tier for me as far as Day 2 interior offensive linemen go. Jackson is as versatile as they come, and while he’s likely going to make his living as an interior player at the NFL level, I would feel comfortable sliding him outside if needed. He very much fits the mold of a player that Green Bay has regularly targeted over the last decade. Versatile and reliable. Wilson will likely be a center at the next level, but I also like his versatility of playing either guard position. After re-watching his performances against Texas, I realized that he did an outstanding job handling another draft crush of mine, Alfred Collins. There’s a level of unknown to him because he was a one-year starter, but he would be the perfect stash and develop guy for a team like the Bears in the third round.
At receiver, Williams and Bryant have two different playing styles, but both intrigue me for different reasons. Williams’ 4.4-flat speed translates onto film, and he’s a scheme and alignment-versatile receiver with big play ability. Although he isn’t the greatest size, his ability to take the top off defenses and play different offensive roles makes him a fun player to watch. Bryant is a bigger-bodied receiver who doesn’t necessarily have the skill set to be a top-flight receiver. Even so, he’s a great 50-50 option, and could play outside or as a power slot. Despite not having top-end speed, he’s a nuanced route runner who has the ability to win based on that. Either player would fit well in Chicago, but Williams might make more sense based on the Bears’ clear plan of adding speed. It’s also worth noting that he’s likely to go a round or so before Bryant and would likely require the Bears to regain a fourth-round selection.
I’ll be honest and say I’m surprised Tuten has received a little more love in this year’s draft class. While I understand that it’s a deep class of running backs, he’s a fun runner with great vision, a thick frame, and an ability to run away from defenses in the open field. Tuten would be at the top of my list if the Bears decide to wait for a running back outside the first two rounds. Despite some of his fumble issues, I’ve got a third-round grade on him.
Finally, I’d be remiss if I didn’t highlight another one of my favorite tight ends in an impressive class. Arroyo never produced at a high level during his time at Miami, but he’s got the skill set to be a very good “move” tight end in almost any scheme. From what I’ve seen, he’s a willing blocker, and with the right coaching, he should be an offensive weapon. Durability is a bit of a concern before 2024, but he would be a great fit in Johnson’s offense.
Photo by James Gilbert/Getty Images
7. My Top 10 favorite defensive players in the 2025 NFL Draft class.
- DE Abdul Carter (Penn State)
- DT Alfred Collins (Texas)
- DT Derrick Harmon (Oregon)
- DE Princely Umanmielen (Ole Miss)
- DT Tyleik Williams (Ohio State)
- S Andrew Mukuba (Texas)
- DT T.J. Sanders (South Carolina)
- S Malachi Moore (Alabama)
- LB Nick Martin (Oklahoma State)
- DT C.J. West (Indiana)
Unlike last year, this group is more comparable to the offensive talent on the board in 2025. There’s been plenty of focus on the offensive side of the ball and rightfully so. That said, don’t be surprised to see the Bears make three to four selections on defense this year. They still need help in the trenches, could have an entirely new linebacking corps in 2026, and have plenty of safety questions. Kevin Byard is on the wrong side of 30 and heading into the final year of his two-year contract. Jaquan Brisker has a concerning history of concussions, despite being viewed as an ascending player when he’s on the field. Although the trenches should still be the focus, fans should keep an eye on linebacker and safety as positions that the Bears will look to address a year too early.
I’m not a huge fan of this edge-rushing class, but Carter is the cream of the crop. He’s also not going to be around anywhere near where the Bears select in the first round. If he somehow makes it to No. 5 (very unlikely), maybe Chicago will weigh a trade up. Barring a surprise, he’s not going to be an option here. If not, Umanmielen is one of the handful of pass rushers I’d like to see the Bears seriously consider on Day 2. He’s got good length but needs to add some bulk to his frame, so he can be more of a stout anchor against the run. As a pass rusher, he’s got a toolbox full of moves and wins with finesse. I’m not sure I would call him a “speed rusher,” but he would be a great change of pace for a team like the Bears, which primarily features bigger bodies off the edge. In Year 1, he’s likely more of a situational rusher, but as time passes, he should round out his game and consistently become an eight-to-10 sack-per-year player.
As you’ll notice, I’ve got five defensive tackles on my 10-player list. I love this tackle class and think the Bears would be very smart to try and land one of these guys in the opening few rounds of the draft. Harmon will go before Collins, but I love the Texas product’s fit in this defense. The defense appears to be in good shape at three-technique, but could use another big-bodied run-stuffer. Harmon is a little more well-rounded and has a much higher upside as a pass rusher. Williams is another favorite of mine because he moves much better than his size would suggest. Sure, he’s a little on the shorter side, but he has the ability to two-gap as a run stuffer and get after the quarterback. Those types of players are rare, and someone will get a very good value in the second round. Sanders is one of the few three-techniques in this class, and while the production is a little inconsistent, I really like his overall traits. He’s someone that I could see developing into one of the better three-techniques in the league over time, and should be a great value in the late second or early third round. Finally, there’s West. Although he won’t wow anyone with size or traits, he’s a player with a lot to like. He’s a high motor player with enough size and enough in the toolbag to be a very high-floor defensive tackle out of the gate. There’s a good chance he’s a late third, early fourth-round player, but he’s someone that I wouldn’t bat an eye at if the Bears took him at 72 in the third round. Again, someone will get a really good player without spending a premium selection, which is yet another sign of a very deep defensive tackle class.
Mukuba and Moore are the two defensive backs on this list. I’m not super high on the defensive backs in this class as a whole, but I believe there are some quality players to be had in the second through fifth rounds. Mukuba is a little undersized, but he plays the ball well. He’s best suited to be a center field-like safety at the next level, but it wouldn’t surprise me to see certain teams also wanting to try him as a chess piece in the nickel. Moore is a little more of a traditional safety without as many instincts in coverage, but as a mid-round player, he has a nice floor and a high enough ceiling where any team that takes him should feel pretty good about him being a future starter. In a draft class that is short on quality talent, players like Moore will provide very nice Day 3 value.
The Bears will have a bit of a balancing act when it comes to figuring out how they want to disperse their defensive picks, but one of the main reasons I’m anti-defender in the first round is because there are going to be multiple good options at picks 39, 41, and 72 on Day 2. The difference between the first-round pass rushers (that fit the Bears’ scheme) and the options on Day 2 is minimal at best. A similar argument could be made for defensive tackles, although those options become much more attractive if the Bears can find a way to trade back six-to-10 picks in the opening round. Either way, Chicago shouldn’t have to put too much effort into finding some quality upgrades on the defensive side of the ball.
8. Five Players I hope the Bears stay away from.
I’m far from a draft guru, and I’d be lying if I said I haven’t been wrong before. That said, my opinions on prospects (good and bad) will always be rooted in what I see on tape. As I’ve said before, this is a strange class where the majority of the “best talent” resides from the middle of the first round into the early stages of Round 3. It feels like the Bears will be on No Man’s Land at No. 10 overall, but forcing a pick based on need is where they could get into trouble. Not all of these five names are projected first-rounders.
1. DE Shemar Stewart (
Texas A&M)
Stewart’s run at the combine was impressive, and he was the only player to post a near-perfect RAS. That said, his athletic testing does not remotely translate to what I’ve seen on tape from his time at Texas A&M. I see a player who lacks instincts, both as a pass rusher and against the run. His 4.5 college sacks were already a question mark, but after doing a deeper dive, I’m just not seeing “it”. Although they play different positions, Stewart reminds me a lot of Kenneth Murray coming out of Oklahoma. He had all the physical traits to make him a star, but diagnosing plays, covering the middle of the field, and being an instinctual football player were things that never developed for him at the NFL level. There’s no question that the Bears are in a tough spot at 10, but the risk with a profile like Stewart far outweighs the high potential reward in the draft. He’s more of a late first-round talent, and even that would come with some risk.
2. CB Jahdae Barron (Texas)
Call me old-fashioned, but I have difficulty getting on board with older draft prospects in the first round. The Texas product will turn 24 before finishing his first NFL season, and frankly, I see more of a nickel back at the next level than a versatile player who can play all over the defensive secondary. There’s plenty of value in a player like Barron, but his expected NFL role, combined with his age, is a hard pass for me in the Top 10-15 picks of any draft class. That said, I wouldn’t be surprised to see a more established team make the selection. His range starts with San Francisco at No. 11.
3. TE Mason Taylor (
LSU)
I’m really going against the grain here, but Taylor feels like that prototypical player that tests well and looks the part, without actually producing that type of film on the field. For as physically imposing as he appears, he’s not a strong blocker, and I wasn’t overly impressed with his play strength. For as much hype as he gets, it’s easy to forget that he never received more than 546 yards and had six receiving touchdowns in three seasons at LSU. Maybe I end up being wrong, but Taylor is the type of player who looks great on paper and does some nice things on the field, but has yet to put it all together. There are plenty of questions surrounding his game. He’ll likely end up as the third tight end off the board, but I’m a much bigger fan of Elijah Arroyo, Gunnar Helm, and even Harold Fannin Jr.
4. CB Shevon Revel Jr. (ECU)
In general, I’m not a huge fan of this cornerback class. Having two of the class’s top names on this list probably indicates that. Physically, Revel looks the part. It was unfortunate to see him lose almost his entire final college season after suffering a torn ACL. I see a much bigger project than it seems. Sure, he looks the part, but he had minimal production in the takeaway department and has stiff hips. Due to his size, I worry that he will have issues with the faster, shifty receiver at the next level. His game has a lot of potential, but coming from a smaller school, playing with high pads and stiff hips, he may have a rough adjustment period. It could take years for him to reach his full potential, even with the right coaching staff. I wouldn’t be surprised to see him eventually transition to the safety position.
5. DE Jack Sawyer (Ohio State)
I know, I know. Sawyer is a legend at Ohio State and had one of the season’s most memorable plays en route to their Nation Championship victory. Even so, I see an average athlete who will struggle to succeed as a pass rusher at the next level. Sawyer doesn’t have a great first step, doesn’t wow anybody with his athletic abilities, and has a severe lack of bend. More than likely, he’ll be a solid, yet unspectacular player. There aren’t a lot of traits that I feel confident in translating to the NFL level. I predict he’ll be a five to six sack per year player known as a stout run defender and a quality DE3.
9. Three first-round players that I have the most questions about (that could be in play for the Bears)
The Bears are expected to be in a tough spot when they jump on the clock at No. 10. With a small group of players that are considered “elite” talents, there’s a very good chance the quality of talent that Chicago will see during their pick will be similar to what can be found about 15 picks later. That doesn’t mean that Poles can’t find a very good player, but this isn’t the type of draft (at the top) where there will be many obvious answers. Even so, three players could be in play for the Bears in the first round that I have the most questions about. Now, that doesn’t mean I don’t like them, but there are unanswered questions that give me pause when projecting them at the NFL level.
1. OL Will Campbell (LSU)
A few months ago, Campbell was trending toward being the top offensive lineman taken in the draft. The biggest question for him has always been about arm length. In most situations, the NFL Scouting Combine provides the most clarity regarding measurements and athletic testing. Campbell tested well, but his arms came close to a half-inch short of the 33-inch threshold for NFL tackles. More concerning to me was that his wingspan at 6’5 was somehow shorter than Willie Lampkin’s, who is a whole seven inches and 40 pounds smaller. A few weeks later, his arms measured 33 inches even at his Pro Day. Even more confounding to me: his wingspan shrank.
On tape, Campbell shows a good blend of physicality and footwork. I’d personally label him more of a technician than a physical mauler, but he would fit a zone blocking scheme well because he has the athleticism to do so. I don’t see a dominant lineman that is guaranteed to be successful at the next level, and I don’t think it’s a given that he could slide inside to guard and become an elite player. I also see a player whose lack of length was an issue at times during the second half of 2024. In some ways, he reminds me of Peter Skoronski coming out of Northwestern. Everyone swore up and down that Skoronski’s lack of length wouldn’t be an issue at tackle (it was) and that if he was slid inside, he would be an All-Pro guard (he hasn’t been). Campbell would need to rework his entire stance to slide inside.
No two players are the same, but they have many similarities, including how they approach their games. Skronski was known as a technician, and although he had more finesse to his game than Campbell does, I wonder if Campbell’s lack of overall mass will be an issue if he’s forced inside. Again, he could end up being a great tackle (or guard for that matter), but I don’t see Campbell as the slam dunk that others do. There’s a level of risk (if he’s still on the board), and there are length thresholds for a reason.
2. DE Mykel Williams (Georgia)
If you were to go back a few months and look at certain publications’ original “big board” rankings on this draft class, Williams was inside the Top 10 of most analysts’ rankings. Coming from Georgia, it’s easy to get carried away with the school behind the player. The college Blue Blood has produced many successful NFL talents. Despite their success, it’s always been hard to project their edge rushers because of what they are asked to do in that defense. Williams was no different.
Despite his size and supposed high-level athletic testing, the issue is that he left much to be desired in college. On top of that, he didn’t test as well as expected. Understandably, many analysts have started to fade him to the back of the first round. For the Bears, he fits many of the thresholds they look at. Especially under Allen as their new defensive coordinator. Although I prefer him to Stewart, I still question whether or not he’s ever going to be the elite talent that some have projected him to become. I’m fully assuming the Bears will have a level of interest in him, but I’m having a hard time accepting him as a real possibility at No. 10 overall due to many of the unknowns in his lack of production.
3. DE James Pearce Jr. (Tennessee)
I’m not sure I’ve gone back and forth on a prospect as much as I have with Pearce. Going into last season, I was high on him. Honestly, I had every expectation that he would be one of the first edge rushers off the board and close to a lock to be a Top 10 pick. The overall reviews on him have been mixed, and it’s hard to ignore that he was never lined up as the best edge rusher on the field in Tennessee. They purposely protected him, and he has many traits that led me to believe that he might be a better situational pass rusher at the NFL level.
There’s been plenty of rumblings about his football character, but unlike Mike Green, who had to answer questions about sexual assault allegations at his first college stop, there hasn’t been much that has surfaced when it comes to the concerns surrounding Pearce. From a size perspective, I’m not sure he fits Allen’s defense, but he has the type of skill set that is sorely needed on this roster. I’m just not convinced he’d be worth a pick before the Top 20.
10. Three Bears Predictions For Draft Weekend
1. The Bears Will Take An Offensive Player With Their First Round Pick
After listening to both Poles and Johnson speak at the NFL Owners Meetings in Orlando, one of the main takeaways I came away with is that left tackle and another offensive weapon are firmly on the table early in the draft. Regarding “weapons”, I’d highly doubt that receiver is a consideration, which means tight end and running back are the two spots to focus more on. More specifically, two names at each position.
Warren and Loveland are two dynamic tight ends. Although it appears Warren is expected to go off the board first, I actually have a higher overall grade for Loveland. I wouldn’t “love” either at 10, but I could at least understand it. Jeanty and Omarion Hampton are the two first-round “locks” at running back. I don’t think Hampton is ideal in a wide zone blocking scheme, but maybe the coaching staff feels different. I’m only taking a running back if Jeanty still sits there at 10. It is worth noting that due to Johnson’s history in North Carolina, he’ll likely have some additional insight into the player and his overall potential fit.
The offensive tackle position is the area that intrigues me the most. On the surface, both Poles and Johnson have been complimentary of Jones and Amegadjie. When giving it some deeper thought, why would they say anything different? That’s not a knock on either player, but Johnson expects Jones to slowly be brought into football shape after training camp starts, and Amegadjie was nowhere near ready to see an NFL field in 2024. As discussed at the top, future cap considerations will be given significant weight. I don’t expect them to “force” a pick if Campbell and/or Membou are gone by 10, but if either player is there, it would make a lot of sense to take them, even with Campbell’s length questions. Kelvin Banks Jr. is another option to keep an eye on, too.
The reality, at least for me, is that the defensive talent expected to be on the board at No. 10 won’t compare to the offensive options. Normally, when an offensive (or defensive) minded coach takes over as the head coach, the first pick (or two) will go toward that side of the ball. Plenty of signs point to that being the case next Thursday night.
2. They’ll Draft Their Future Left Tackle In The First Three Rounds
To expand further on the offensive lineman talk, one way or the other, the Bears will draft a left tackle with the idea of him, at minimum, competing with Amegadjie for the starting job in 2026. There aren’t many scenarios where I see the Bears continuing to pay a premium for the interior, while also giving Jones $22-$25 million per year on top of that.
I won’t pretend that this is a deep tackle class or that each of the top names doesn’t have notable flaws.
- Campbell: Length issues.
- Membou: Didn’t play the left side in college.
- Kelvin Banks Jr.: Ends up on the ground too much and might be best-suited for guard.
- Josh Simmons: Requisite but not ideal length. Coming off a major knee injury.
- Josh Conerly Jr.: Still very raw and new to left tackle. A lot to like but plenty of developmental risk (if he makes it to the second round).
- Aireontae Ersery: Raw and technically limited. More of a developmental piece that will go a round-plus earlier than he should. Foot speed is also a question.
Names like Zabel, Jackson, Jonah Savaiinaea, and even Marcus Mbow were college tackles who don’t have the prerequisite length or athleticism to play anywhere except on the interior. In short, there are a lot of guards in this class, which makes filling left tackle a little more challenging. Especially if they choose not to take one in Round 1 and Conerly Jr. goes before No. 39 (which seems likely).
This means that the most likely scenario involves a first-round selection or a trade-up from No. 39 to make a player like Conerly Jr. or Simmons happen. With the focus expected to be on the offense early, I’m halfway expecting a running back, offensive tackle one-two punch within the first three picks of the weekend. If the Bears want to wait until the third round, Anthony Belton or Ozzy Trapilo could make sense.
3. One of Safety or Tight End Will Be One Of Their First Four Picks
If I were predicting the Bears’ first four picks, I would feel confident in saying that the offensive line, running back, and defensive line would be slotted somewhere in there.
The two offensive spots are tricky because the fall-off in perceived talent is from the first to the second round. We’ve already covered offensive tackle extensively, but if they miss on the top names, could they transition to one of the top guards? They’d have a big group to pick from, and the talent pool there would be much better.
At running back, I’ve got Jeanty in a very clear tier of his own. Next, I’d label Hampton and Henderson in their own tier. Judkins and Dylan Sampson would be in that next tier, followed by Kaleb Johnson, Bhayshul Tuten, and Cam Skattebo in the fourth tier, which falls somewhere around the third or fourth round. More importantly, scheme fit and desired skill set will be important with this running back group. Players like Jeanty, Henderson, Judkins, Johnson, and Tuten have the ideal wide/outside zone skill set. Hampton and Skattebo are more questionable, while Sampson and even DJ Giddens didn’t fit into my evaluations of the new offensive scheme.
How the Bears evaluate the early group of running backs could directly impact their remaining picks in the first three rounds. If Jeanty is there, he’s a no-brainer. If he’s not, which is what’s expected, left tackle becomes the most logical fit, but there’s a chance that neither positional group will be there, and they could be looking at Tyler Warren.
Which brings me to the main point of this last prediction. There are two overlooked needs on this roster: tight end and safety.
Johnson is a big believer in 12-personnel, making another useful pass-catching tight end a must at some point in the next year. Drafting one high doesn’t automatically mean that Kmet’s role will be reduced or ultimately eliminated, though. They could view him more as an inline option and would rather have a more dynamic option to play the Sam LaPorta role. If they don’t take Warren or Loveland in the first round, a bevy of Day 2 options could take priority. Taylor, Arroyo, Terrance Ferguson, Gunnar Helm, Harold Fannin Jr., and Oronde Gadsden II could also fill that void in rounds 2 or 3.
At safety, there are many more questions than meet the eye. Kevin Byard is on the wrong side of 30 and is playing out the final season of his two-year deal. Jaquan Brisker, when healthy, is a good player. The issue: He’s struggled to stay on the field, including a pair of concussions. The last one cost him 70% of the season. The depth behind them is more than fine, but there are a lot of questions that exist with this group beyond 2025. Fans shouldn’t expect them to burn a first-round pick at the position, but Day 2 options include Xavier Watts, Kevin Winston Jr., Andrew Mukuba, and Sebastian Castro. I like some of the early Day 3 options (Malachi Moore, Billy Bowman, and Jonas Sanker), but it’s hard to imagine any of them lasting until the Bears’ fifth-round selection at 148.
Both areas of need could have different priorities, but I’m fully expecting one of them to be addressed in the first three rounds. I’m just not sure which one.
pic.twitter.com/Nk4z33W4ic
/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/25750851/2nd_City_Gridiron_Windy_City_Gridiron_Share_Card.png)
/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/25927686/Draft_Pie_D2.png)
/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/25927691/Draft_Bar_2.png)
/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/25961716/2191090180.jpg "Detroit Lions v Chicago Bears")
/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/25961717/2192412937.jpg "Duke v Ole Miss - TaxSlayer Gator Bowl")
