I was set to write about the statistical doppelgangers of CJ McCollum or Khris Middleton, but EuroBasket is drawing to a close, and it was just about as disastrous for the Wizards as an offseason tournament could be.
EuroBasket itself was terrific. NBA stars dominated — the top 10 in total production (according to my PPA metric) are all NBA veterans. For the Wizards? Blech.
Big man Alex Sarr played well for two games…and then hurt his calf and missed the rest of the tournament. Upside: he made shots, did some work on the boards, defended, and is expected to be ready for training camp. Downside: he’s missing crucial development time while he recovers from that calf injury. And, like all the Wizards youngsters, he needs that development time.
Two-way big Tristan Vukcevich played in four games for Serbia. He wasn’t much good (61 PPA), and he got hurt — though not seriously.
His teammate — with France and the Wizards — Bilal Coulibaly hit the #SoWizards exacta. Coulibaly played poorly and sustained a torn ligament in his right thumb. His injury required surgery, and he’ll miss workout time, training camp, and part of the regular season. He can’t even work on shot mechanics because the injury is to his shooting thumb.
Blech.
Let me not be hypocritical about this. I love that NBA players play in these international tournaments. I’m glad Sarr and Coulibaly got to take part. On average, I think the national team experience is beneficial to players, especially young ones. It just sucks they got hurt.
While there are still a couple games to be played, I ran some of my usual stat tools on EuroBasket, so let’s dig in — with all the standard small sample size caveats asserted.
We’ll start with PPA, which is short for Player Production Average. PPA is my overall production metric, which includes all the standard box score stats weighted to assess their contribution to winning (or losing). Given the small sample and the paucity of workable data, I’m using an estimated PPA (ePPA), which does not include the normal accounting for role and defense.
ePPA is a per minute metric. Average is 100 and higher is better. Here’s the top 10 in per minute ePPA (minimum 75 minutes played):
- Nikola Jokic, Serbia — 375
- Luka Doncic, Slovenia — 321
- Alperen Sengun, Turkey — 312
- Franz Wagner, Germany — 277
- Giannis Antetokounmpo, Greece — 274
- Lauri Markkanen, Finland — 273
- Daniel Theis, Germany — 265
- Jonas Valanciunas, Lithuania — 258
- Tristan Da Silva, Germany — 244
- Elie Okobo, France — 238
- Sarr: 180
- Coulibaly: 62
- Vukcevic: 61
Some former Wizards played well in EuroBasket, including:
- Deni Avdija, Israel — 205
- Davis Bertans, Latvia — 179
- Isaac Bonga, Germany — 177
- Kristaps Porzingis, Latvia — 174
The least productive player in EuroBasket was Montenegro’s Vladimir Mihailovic, who posted a -92 PPA in 94 minutes of action.
If you’re trolling the tournament for future NBA prospects, prepare to be disappointed. EuroBasket is dominated by veterans. The productive youngsters are almost all on NBA teams already. One kinda-sorta exception: Miikka Muurinen from Finland — a 6-10 18-year-old who went to high school in Phoenix, Arizona. In EuroBasket, he made shots from the field and blocked a few shots. Negatives: not great on the boards, literally zero assists, and an astronomical foul rate.
Let’s go through the Glory Stats (and a few others). As usual, I prefer per minute (well, in truth, I prefer per possession, but I digress) stats. The numbers below are per 48 minutes with a minimum of 75 minutes played.
Yes, I know FIBA games are 40 minutes long. My NBA-addled brain prefers the per 48 metric.
Usage
This is possessions used per 48 minutes instead of the usual percentage.
- Luka Doncic, Slovenia — 39.8
- Rokas Jokubaitis, Lithuania — 35.1
- Giannis Antetokounmpo, Greece — 34.3
- Lauri Markkanen, Finland — 32.3
- Kristaps Porzingis, Latvia — 31.2
Sarr’s usage: 14.4. Coulibaly: 14.9.
- Vukcevic: 17.9
- Sarr: 14.4
- Coulibaly: 14.9
- Average: 18.0
These numbers, by the way, suggest a pace factor of about 90.0 possessions per 48 minutes.
Offensive Rating
- Tadas Sedekerskis, Lithuania — 153 ortg | 10.0 possessions used per 48 minutes
- Martin Krampelj, Slovenia — 152 | 14.2
- Daniel Theis, Germany — 147 | 17.0
- Adin Vrabac, Bosnia and Herzegovina — 145 | 10.2
- Sasu Salin, Finland — 142 | 14.2
As would be expected, bigger and lower usage guys.
- Sarr: 138
- Coulibaly: 101
- Vukcevic: 96
- Average: 107.3
Points
- Luka Doncic, Slovenia — 50.0
- Giannis Antetokounmpo, Greece — 43.6
- Lauri Markkanen, Finland — 39.69
- Nikola Jokic, Serbia — 39.68
- Jonas Valanciunas, Lithuania — 39.0
Former Wizards greats Kristaps Porzingis (35.6) and Deni Avdija (34.9) were each in the top 10. And yes, Doncic scored 50.0 points per 48 minutes in EuroBasket.
- Sarr: 23.3
- Vukcevic: 17.8
- Coulibaly: 16.2
- Average: 19.3
Rebounds
- Alen Omic, Slovenia — 17.4
- Alperen Sengun, Turkey — 17.3
- Jonas Valanciunas, Lithuania — 16.6
- Nikola Vucevic, Montenegro — 16.4
- Daniel Theis, Germany — 16.1
- Vukcevic: 12.1
- Coulibaly: 11.1
- Sarr: 11.0
- Average: 7.9
Assists
- Rokas Jokubaitis, Lithuania — 16.9
- Stefan Jovic, Serbia — 16.0
- Ondrej Sehnal, Czech Republic — 12.8
- Arnas Velicka, Lithuania — 12.2
- Marco Spissu, Italy — 11.3
Dennis Schroder was next at 11.1. Sengun produced 11.0 assists per 48.
- Vukcevic: 3.6
- Coulibaly: 1.3
- Sarr: 1.2
- Average: 4.7
Steals
- Justus Hollatz, Germany — 5.1
- Thanasis Antetokounmpo, Greece — 4.6
- Travante Williams, Portugal — 4.5
- Yam Madar, Israel — 4.4
- Jaromir Bohacik, Czech Republic — 4.2
Doncic averaged 3.9.
- Coulibaly: 1.3
- Sarr: 1.2
- Vukcevic: 0.7
- Average: 1.6
Blocks
- Sarr: 2.5
- Coulibaly: 1.7
- Vukcevic: 1.4
- Average: 0.6
