Sometimes, especially in the dog days of the offseason, I putter around in a spreadsheet filled with NBA stats and just see what I might glean. It’s often interesting, especially when combining stats just to see what might emerge.
It’s long been accepted (by many, including me) that steals and blocks don’t necessarily tell us who’s good at defense in the NBA. Players impact defenses in lots of ways that won’t necessarily show up as stocks (steals + blocks). This is true.
In the tracking era, we could probably add deflections to the mix with the same reasoning. Deflections are a signal of defensive activity, though not necessarily effectiveness.
The best measures use on/off data, generally adjusted in some way to account for quality of opponents and teammates, often in combination with box score stats. And some of these are quite good. The defensive impact accounting mechanism in my PPA metric uses this kind of approach. (Which is not to assert that the defense part of my PPA metric is among the best such measures or is even good. Just a similarity in approach.)
As I puttered, I realized that it had been many years since I ran some of The Old Stuff — simple tools we used to measure defensive impact and then see if we could improve upon them. See, back in the olden days of statistical analysis — so long ago that we were writing to each other on Yahoo message boards before we
gasp migrated to another message board, so long ago that none of us had actually been employed by an NBA team to do stat work, so long ago that no one used the word “analytics” or described what we did as “advanced,” so long ago that Roland Beech had yet to create
82games.com — we had to make do with what we had.
So, I ran one and danged if the result didn’t hit me as interesting. The formula is amazingly simpled — per minute steals + per minutes blocks – personal fouls. Steals and blocks are
at worst measures of defensive activity. Sometimes, they’re indicative of over-activity — chasing steals (or blocks) to win a dumb bet with a teammate or because you just like the feeling of sending opponent shots into the fifth row.
Ultimately though, steals and blocks are indicators of activity and disruption. A blocked shot, by definition, means a miss. A steal, by definition, means a zero-point possession for the opposing offense. Those are generally good things, though the pursuit of those stats can get dicey.
That’s why we include fouls. They’re an imperfect efficiency counterbalance, but we’re keeping things simple and using what’s readily available in the spreadsheet. Not all fouls are bad, of course. Sometimes they just happen in the course of defending. Sometimes it’s better to foul an offensive player (especially if he’s a lousy free throw shooter) than to give up a dunk or layup. Sometimes it’s better to give a hard foul that makes an opponent think twice next time he’s in position to drive.
Still, fouls send opponents to the free throw line, which are high efficiency possessions. And since no one ever (except me for a half season) kept track of steals or blocks attempted, we don’t have a steals or blocks percentage like we do for three-point percentage, for example.
Yes, I know there is a “blocks percentage” stat, but that’s blocks per possession, not blocks per attempted block.
Why not include defensive rebounding? A few reasons. First, rebounding — especially before the pace-and-space generation — was/is mostly about positioning. Big guys were stationed closer to the basket and gathered rebounds because they were bigger and had inside position.
Second, in the tracking and instant video era, we’ve been able to see how infrequently teams contest rebounds. Sure, that’s changed a bit, but the offensive rebounding sea-change happened 20+ years ago, which is a generation. I’ve reviewed every rebound in multiple 20+ rebound games over the past few years, and rarely are more than 2-3 defensive boards contested in any way.
Third, I kinda hoped a guard might surface somewhere near the top (which didn’t happen, though I did get a SF).
Ultimately, what this super-simple metric does is float up names of players who are active and disruptive on defense without sending opponents to the free throw line. And…well…the results are interesting.
Enough throat clearing. Here’s the top 10 in this metric (per 40 minute steals + per 40 minute blocks – per 40 minute fouls with a minimum of 1,500 total minutes in a season — NOTE: these are pace-adjusted per minute stats. For some reason, “per 40 minutes” made sense when I started this spreadsheet — at some point I’ll change it to per 36 or per 48):
- David Robinson, 1991-92, San Antonio Spurs — +3.97
- Victor Wembanyama, 2024-25, SAS — +3.92
- Ben Wallace, 2001-02, Detroit Pistons — +3.63
- Victor Wembanyama, 2023-24, SAS — +3.56
- Manute Bol, 1986-87, Washington Bullets — +3.40
- Ben Wallace, 2003-04, DET — +3.38
- Manute Bol, 1985-86, WSB — +3.28
- Andrei Kirilenko, 2003-04, Utah Jazz — +3.03
- Hakeem Olajuwon, 1989-90, Houston Rockets — +3.00
- Anthony Davis, 2014-15, New Orleans Pelicans — +2.82
The first thing that jumps out at me is how infuriating this list is for someone who’s been following this Wizards/Bullets franchise since 1978 — at least insofar as this metric conveys defensive “goodness.” And, at least for a time, this metric corresponds with impressions of defensive quality during that era.
Manute Bol made the list in each of his first two seasons. He finished second in Defensive Player of the Year voting
as a rookie and made second team All-Defense. He had two more top five finishes in DPOY voting (one with Washington), and they traded him after his third season for Dave Feitl and a second round pick, which they used to select Doug Roth, who was legally blind. (NOTE to younger readers: Yes, the Washington Bullets once drafted a player who was blind.)
This is not to say they shouldn’t have traded Bol. He was a great shot blocker, but he lacked other basketball skills. Despite being 7-7, Bol had a below average effective field goal percentage every season of his career. Turns out there’s more to basketball than being tall.
The more egregious move was trading Ben Wallace plus three other players (a couple of which were pretty good) for Isaac Austin because they “needed a true center.” Austin was an inch taller and 20-30 (okay, maybe 40-50) pounds heavier, though no one would argue the weight difference was due to muscle development.
In Washington, Wallace had already begun showing the type of defense and rebounding production that would result him becoming a four-time Defensive Player of the Year and anchoring the defense for the NBA Champion Detroit Pistons.
Ahem.
The next thing is that all of the top 10 in this metric are front court players, and only one (arguably two) are anything other than centers.
Skimming down the list continues to yield centers with the exception of Kirilenko — and sitting at 26th — Gerald Wallace. There are at least a couple ways of looking at the lack of guards near the top. One: perhaps the metric is biased against guards in some way. Another (perhaps reflected in findings in player tracking and on/off analysis) explanation: maybe centers are more important and impactful defenders.
Just outside the top 10 are seasons from players widely acknowledged as impactful defenders like Mark Eaton, Marcus Camby, Tim Duncan, Serge Ibaka, Kareem Abdul-Jabbar (an absolute MONSTER of a player for the first 12-15 years of his career), Rudy Gobert, Michael Jordan…
We’ve already seen top seasons for centers and power forward types. Kirilenko was classified as a PF by Basketball-Reference in his top 10 season. He was classified as a SF in several others, so I’m going to break this up a little further.
Top Wing Seasons using this Super Simple Metric:
- Kirilenko, 2005-06, UTA — +2.79
- Kirienko, 2001-02, UTA — +2.45
- Gerald Wallace, 2005-06 — +2.33
- Kirilenko, 2002-03, UTA — +2.18
- Kirilenko, 2012-13, Minnesota Timberwolves — +1.61
Just outside the top five: Kawhi Leonard, 2014-15; Julius Erving, 1979-80; Lebron James, 2008-09; Jimmy Butler, 2020-21.
Top Guard Seasons using this Super Simple Metric:
- Dyson Daniels, 2024-25, Atlanta Hawks — +1.99
- Mookie Blaylock, 1993-94, ATL — +1.63
- Michael Jordan, 1986-87, Chicago Bulls — +1.58
- Michael Jordan, 1987-88, CHI — +1.52
- Dwyane Wade, 2008-09, Miami Heat — +1.47
Just outside the top five: Eric Bledsoe, 2012-13; Allen Iverson, 2001-02; Maurice Cheeks, 1986-87; Gus Williams, 1982-83; Dudley Bradley, 1979-80.
The Wizards and Bullets have just 15 player seasons since 1977-78 with a net positive score in this metric. Manute Bol ranks one and two — and he’s the only Wizards/Bullets player with a net score in this metric above +1.0, +2.0 or +3.0. Here’s the list:
- Manute Bol, 1986-87
- Manute Bol, 1985-86
- John Wall, 2016-17
- Tyus Jones, 2023-24
- Tom Gugliotta, 1993-94
- Gus Williams, 1984-85
- John Wall, 2015-16
- Larry Hughes, 2004-05
- Pervis Ellison, 1991-92
- John Wall, 2011-12
- Moses Malone, 1986-87
- Otto Porter, 2017-18
- John Wall, 2014-25
- JaVale McGee, 2010-11
- Chris Webber, 1996-97
Other players who were close to making that list: John Williams, Alex Sarr, John Lucas, Michael Jordan (second season).
Is it a perfect metric. Nah. It’s basically what we could do back in the old days. Still, kinda interesting for an offseason article.
