The Machine Points Upward: Bub Carrington’s Optimistic Stat Comps

[Washington Wizards]

The Machine Points Upward: Bub Carrington’s Optimistic Stat Comps

Washington Wizards guard Bub Carrington

After a trip through guesstimating old-time NBA stats, we now return to a Bullets Forever August tradition: running players through my Statistical Doppelganger Machine.

The Machine compares a reference seasons to all the other player seasons through NBA history across 14 stat categories including age, playing time, box score stats (pace adjusted), and PPA (my overall production metric). The idea here is to identify players with similar on-court production while moving beyond superficial traits like size, perceived athleticism, or skin color.

Let’s turn to today’s “reference season” — the rookie year of Bub Carrington.

I won’t rehash what I wrote about Carrington back in May. The TLDR:

At times, Carrington looked great. At others…well…not so great. But, he was the 14th pick in the draft, and he’s just 20 years old. His 59 PPA indicates he was well below average last season, which is perfectly normal for any rookie, and especially normal for a teenager.

Also, he was inconsistent, which is perfectly normal for a teenaged rookie.

Carrington’s was relatively strong getting defensive rebounds and generating assists while avoiding turnovers. His offensive efficiency was poor — a bit more than 10 points per possessions below league average. Again, that’s fine for a teenaged rookie. It’s something that should improve as he physically matures and gains NBA experience.

The Machine’s results are a fairly optimistic underscore of how “normal” Carrington’s rookie year was. Here we go:

1. Kevin Huerter, Atlanta Hawks, 2018-19 — This was Huerter’s rookie year, and it was pretty good (PPA: 71). His production crept up to around average until he got traded to the Sacramento Kings where it jumped to 132 (in PPA, average is 100 and higher is better) in his age 24 season (2022-23). Since then, his performance dipped as he dealt with regular injuries.
2. Lonzo Ball, Los Angeles Lakers, 2018-19 — This was year two for Ball, and I consider this a highly optimistic comp. He was a) good, and b) improving before his career got wrecked by repeated injuries. He’s a bit bigger than Carrington (6-6 vs. 6-4), but the Wizards would be fortunate if Carrington can be as good as Ball and stay healthy.
3. Tony Parker, San Antonio Spurs, 2001-02 — Yes, this is the 19-year-old rookie season of the guy who became an elite guard and was a key driver of several Spurs championship teams. Parker’s rookie season was more impressive than Carrington’s (still a below average 80 PPA) but the pattern of production is similar.
4. Luther Head, Houston Rockets, 2005-06 — Head was a 23-year-old rookie in this season, and it was reasonably promising (PPA: 77). He hit exactly average (100) the following season, posted a 90 PPA in year three, and then…his career fizzled.
5. Theo Maledon, Oklahoma City Thunder, 2020-21 — Teenage rookie who played badly (PPA: 37). He got a little better in years two and three, but his NBA career never really launched. He was out of the NBA last season and will be again next season.
6. Andrew Nembhard, Indiana Pacers, 2022-23 — This season was Nembhard’s rookie year (age 23), and it was decent. He improved each of the past two seasons, and was an important part of the Indiana Pacers’ unexpected run to the Finals last season. He should have the opportunity to expand his game next season while Tyrese Haliburton recovers from a torn Achilles.
7. Marcus Smart, Boston Celtics, 2017-18 — This was actually Smart’s fourth season (age 23), and it was the worst of his career. His production jumped the following season, and his overall production was above average each of the next four seasons. His best season was a 120 PPA in 2021-22, which was also the year he was named Defensive Player of the Year.
8. Brandon Ingram, Los Angeles Lakers, 2016-17 — Ingram is kinda the poster boy of not taking a teenager’s rookie year too seriously. He was terrible (PPA: 34). He got better and hit a career-best 142 in 2020-21. His PPA has been above 120 for each of the past five seasons.
9. Lance Stephenson, Indiana Pacers, 2012-13 — This was Stephenson’s third season and was one of his two “good” seasons — 95 PPA in 2012-13, and 116 in 2013-14. Then he left for Charlotte, and his production cratered.
10. Nik Stauskas, Philadelphia 76ers, 2016-17 — Third season for Stuaskas, who was unproductive for The Process Sixers. Seriously, he had three consecutive seasons with a 50 PPA, two with Philly, one with the Brooklyn Nets. Carrington was a better NBA player at 19 than Stauskas was at 25.

Let me know in the comments who you want to see run through The Machine next.

Source: https://www.bulletsforever.com/wash...-upward-bub-carringtons-optimistic-stat-comps