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[Houston Texans]

The C.J. Stroud Hypothesis

A standard high school football offensive playbook is usually somewhere between a dozen and a hundred pages long (based on how serious the school takes the game). Throughout those pages, many have options on each such as route trees, shifts, motions, run/play action decisions and more. If each variation had its own page, they’d number closer to a thousand.

That’s a lot to learn.

At the NCAA level, that playbook jumps from roughly a 1/4” thick to 1-2” full of even more detailed pages.

Once you hit the NFL, the playbook is often so thick each position group gets a broken down section tailored for just their role that’s thicker than the NCAA full monty.

Point being, that’s a LOT to learn, remember and recall while under pressure, in game, after some nasty linebacker just knocked the slobber out of you a moment earlier.

NFL offensive and defensive schemes run from the stripped down, basic sets seen in preseason games to highly complex entities that might give some folks at NASA a run for the detail orientation and complexity cash.

When a team hires a rookie offensive coordinator, the hope is that person has learned under the tutelage of a veteran OC. They know how to ease players into the playbook, instead of hitting them day one with the thickest book they’ve ever seen in their lives. And, they’re experts at teaching it to their players and position coaches.

Not too many rookie experts out there.

When a team brings in a new quarterback, the hope is that person can rapidly learn and ultimately command, the OC’s playbook as if he wrote it himself.

NFL history is littered with examples of this OC/QB connection misfiring.

One of the more famous examples this century was Brad Childress when he was the head coach of the Minnesota Vikings. Childress prided himself on the complexity of his offensive scheme, failing to see that the players didn’t get it, and, even worse, he often had the wrong players to execute his vision.

Put a pocket passer in a run-and-shoot offense and you get bad results. Speak to a guy who came up in the Shanahan tree in a language Mike Tomlin (who coached under Childress) uses and you create confusion.

Most recently in Houston’s history: the 5-7 step drop back offense engineered by George Godsey, if memory serves. A large, immobile quarterback, expected to take the first 75% of his post-snap time simply to drop back and set was insane. It was like watching a baby giraffe backpedal from a herd of hungry lions over and over again.

Now, we have Nick Caley’s run-first/smash mouth offensive scheme. Enter Stroud, a guy who flourished in a balanced, complimentary scheme at Ohio State under Brian Hartline. Stroud also did well under former OC Bobby Slowik’s initial, stripped down offense, but floundered once Slowik opened up the full playbook. Note, Slowik’s own shortcomings in both play calling and in-game adjustments didn’t help.

The 2025 Houston Texans season​

To say this iteration of the Texans offense sputtered out of the gate is an understatement. Caley seemed so far out of his depth, the shore was nowhere in sight. Worse, Stroud looked lost and confused early and often. Now, if you’re going to employ a run-first, smash mouth offense and your RB1/lead smash mouther mysteriously undergoes a medical incident and vanishes, you better adapt. Caley likely was fired up to have Joe Mixon, and when he didn’t, he just went “next man up”, which clearly didn’t work.

But, take a minute and look in Stroud’s eyes. Find any clip from the early 2025 season and you don’t see the eyes of someone who confidently mastered the current playbook. You get a view of someone who seems more like they’re fighting for survival at Fake-it-til-you-make-it-U.

We can infer from Caley’s early press conferences that he also seemed lost, defensive that his grand plan was sinking fast, and unable to find his way out of the hole he dug. His inability to intelligently articulate his thoughts to the local press likely mirrored that same inability to communicate his shiny, new Sean McVay/Josh McDaniels playbook to the players, especially Stroud.

Then, the thing so many OCs dream of happened. Head coach Demeco Ryans and defensive coordinator Matt Burke showed the world the elite creation that was the 2025 Houston Texans defense. Make no mistake, if the defense had simply been average/middle of the road, there would be a lot of different conversations happening in NRG right now.

Now, we’ve established that Caley, a rookie coordinator, failed to set his offense up for success.

What actually happened though? Was Caley’s initial playbook too complex? Was it poorly communicated and taught to the players? A coaches job, after all, is first and foremost to teach the players how to execute the scheme and gameplan.

And, how does Caley react when he faces communication breakdowns? Does he wipe aside personal accountability and tell Stroud to figure it out? Or does he dig deep within himself and solve the problem, then implement a fix?

We likely will never know. What we do know is Caley’s play calling/in game adjustment style was often just as bad as his predecessors.

Caley’s “claim to fame” is having coached New England Patriots all-pro tight end Rob Gronkowski to his elite status. Anyone who has ever heard Gronk talk and then listened to C.J. Stroud should immediately realize they are very, VERY different people, likely to respond to very, VERY different input/feedback/communication styles. Coaches like Childress who expect the players to adapt to them fail guys like Stroud. Coaches who adapt to the players end up with rings and trophies (see Tomlin above).

Does C.J. Stroud suck?​

The “hawt take” knee-jerk nonsense filling the NFL ether this week is that C.J. Stroud does indeed suck. Let’s face it, Caley didn’t throw those interceptions last weekend. However, this is the same C.J. Stroud who holds the Ohio State record for most passing yards in a game. The same Stroud who won NFL offensive rookie of the year. The same Stroud who, in just 3 seasons, has already won the 2nd most games of any Texans quarterback in history.

Chances are, Stroud does not, indeed “suck” unless we’re all at the bar throwing pretzels at the TV cause he just lost a playoff game to the Patriots 5 seconds ago. But, cooler heads prevail.

Tossing Stroud aside now and grabbing another quarterback is very off-brand for Demeco Ryans and the Houston Texans organization. And, as the saying goes these days #InDemecoWeTrust

Does Nick Caley suck?​

Despite my oft times vocal disdain of Caley’s performance in 2025, he did start to right the ship towards the end of the season. Replacing him now would mean 2026 places Stroud in yet another new system, expects him to learn yet another 5” thick playbook and hoping against hope the new OC doesn’t suck as well. As we’ve all learned, prior success doesn’t always guarantee future wins in the NFL.

Do I wish Houston would have gone elsewhere a year ago for a new OC? Absolutely. Pairing a great offensive mind with what Ryans and Burke have been able to do with the defense would turn the Texans into a dynasty. And, who wouldn’t want that? I mean, come on…

Houston Texans 2026 offseason​

If Caley can take what he learned in 2025 and build on it, that’s promising. If Caley can grow as a teacher, learn from Ryans on being a leader of men and ensure his players get it, that’s all anyone can ask.

If general manager Nick Caserio can bring in the personnel necessary to properly execute Caley’s scheme, let’s go. It’s not like the offensive needs much, especially if Tank Dell is back and doesn’t turn into a pumpkin shaped Will Fuller V at midnight.

If the defense can even achieve 75% of what it did in 2025, added to Caley and Caserio’s efforts, then 2026 will finally be the year the Texans break thru the glass ceiling.

Ditching Stroud now is going backwards. Ditching Caley now (unless Kyle Shanahan or someone of his stature decides they really want to be the Texans OC…) is going backwards.

This team has improved each year under Coach Ryans. If Stroud can fully grasp Caley’s playbook, Caley can improve his play calling and in-game adapting, and the wheels don’t fall off the bus somewhere else, maybe, just maybe, the NFL powers-that-will be allow the Texans a starring role in the 2026 script.

Source: https://www.battleredblog.com/houston-texans-analysis/73889/the-c-j-stroud-hypothesis

 

[Houston Texans]

Houston Texans Position Outlook: Quarterback

If you told most people in 2023 that there would be real doubt surrounding C.J. Stroud’s future as a top-tier NFL quarterback, you would’ve been called insane.

Since his historic rookie season, Stroud has been chasing that same level of play — and he hasn’t consistently looked like the same quarterback. There are still moments almost every game where you’re left in disbelief at how special some of his throws are, but the overall standard hasn’t matched what he set for himself.

There’s a very real case for why the drop-off has happened over the past two seasons. A duct-taped offensive line, a nonexistent run game at times, and questionable play-calling have all played a role. Those are valid explanations and issues the Texans must address this offseason. But at the end of the day, Stroud has missed throws he should be making.

It’s not every snap, but too often he’ll have a receiver open or a chance to extend the play with his legs, only to hesitate and make the wrong decision. It feels like he’s second-guessing himself far more than he did early in his career.

Stroud also looks jittery in the pocket, which has led to inconsistent ball placement. While the offensive line improved from last season, it was still well below league average — and that’s something Houston has to fix.

That said, there’s still plenty of reason for optimism. Stroud can absolutely turn things around in 2026. The Texans will be getting Tank Dell back, own multiple premium draft picks, and remain an attractive destination for free agents — especially with DeMeco Ryans at the helm.

Stroud himself has acknowledged that Houston could’ve made a Super Bowl run this year if he’d taken better care of the football. He’s owned that and has already said correcting those issues will be a major focus this offseason.

If you judge Stroud solely off this year’s playoff games, it’s understandable why some fans are questioning whether he can deliver in big moments. But he’s still just 24 years old and has already accomplished more than many established quarterbacks around the league.

It’s likely the Texans hold off on a contract extension this offseason, making 2026 a true prove-it year for Stroud. Whether that pressure brings out the best in him is one of the biggest storylines Houston will face moving forward.

Source: https://www.battleredblog.com/houst...2/houston-texans-position-outlook-quarterback

 

[Houston Texans]

Houston Texans – Top 3 Offseason Targets

It’s never fun when your team loses in the playoffs. When they win, you can gloss over all of the mistakes with the satisfaction of victory. But, when they lose, all those miscues become the center of everyone’s attention once the game – and season – is over. Every mistake will be combed over in excessive detail by fans and analysts alike, desperate for a reason behind another playoff exit.

But, in the days immediately following such a big loss, especially one with as many hiccups as the Houston Texans’ 28-16 loss to the New England Patriots, identifying mistakes and issues can feel like spotting shrapnel in a war zone.

What caused the Texans to lose to the Patriots?

The first issue that leaps into your mind is the biggest one: QB CJ Stroud. His statline tells the ugly story of this game, and his lowlights in the first half make it look even worse. He was supposed to be the franchise quarterback to deliver Houston from mediocrity! Flashing his potential in year one and then never again, like a cruel joke played on those that thought the franchise had finally found their leader. But why? Why has Stroud gotten worse?

And then, the avalanche washes over you-

It’s got to be this offensive line. Stroud has had too many line combinations this year and he couldn’t handle the whole lineup shuffling because of RT Trent Brown’s injury.

…No, it’s the ground game! RBs Woody Marks and Nick Chubb only get 31 yards on 18 carries against the Patriots? That’s a disaster…but, the receivers weren’t great, either! Houston needed WRs Jayden Higgins and Christian Kirk to be sparkling stars in Stroud’s visor, and they failed.

…Is it right to expect so much of them, though? Is it too much for me to expect Higgins and Kirk to step up against such a high level defense? Maybe it’s really the injury bug that killed the Texans…but the quarterback is supposed to compensate for those injuries! Ugh!

All of Houston’s compounding issues this game ultimately orbit around the quarterback playing poorly. CJ Stroud is the sun that the offense revolves around, so when he’s having a cloudy day, they all are. So…do you bench him? Should the Texans have tapped QB Davis Mills to be the starter after halftime? Well, if you listen to DeMeco Ryans postgame conference after the loss, he had full confidence in Stroud remaining the starter:

"C.J. [Stroud] is our guy."

DeMeco Ryans on his QB after the Texans' loss in the playoffs. pic.twitter.com/KRUPqBMlEe

— ESPN (@espn) January 19, 2026

To Ryans’ credit, Stroud did play better in the second half, but not by very much. He remained iffy inside the pocket and couldn’t hit his receivers in the hands to save his life. Is that enough to bench him? Well, a perspective I’ve come around to is: if all of these small issues surrounding the offense on Sunday were enough to overwhelm Stroud, they likely would be enough to stop backup QB Davis Mills from looking any better. Even if Stroud was taken out of the game immediately following the pick-six in the second quarter, Mills would not be able to rely on his rapport with Christian Kirk and Jayden Higgins to carry him to a comeback, and the Patriots would be even more likely to stack the box with him in the game. So, looking past the quarterback controversy (which has already been covered on this site), what can the Houston Texans make as their primary targets in the offseason? For me, there are three major spots of deficiency that can be significantly improved before kickoff of the 2026 NFL season:

1. Running Back​

Of all the mysterious football injuries that have plagued star caliber players and confused the public at large, RB Joe Mixon’s undisclosed foot/ankle injury has to be one of the most prolific. Now nearly 6 months separated from the initial reports of Mixon struggling to practice in training camp, we still have very little information as to what has ailed him and why it kept him off the field for the entire 2025 season. If you’re to take General Manager Nick Caserio’s testimony mere minutes into his Wednesday press conference, the Texans had little understanding of the injury, as well:

“So, as it pertains to Joe [Mixon]…so, here’s what I would say, it was a very…unique situation…I don’t think anybody really had any clarity, honestly, from the start of the year until now. I’d say Joe worked very very hard to try to get himself ready to play football. It just never manifested itself and came to fruitition…probably have an opportunity to kind of see where he is in the offseason, um, relative to next year. But again…it was as unique a situation an injury as I’ve been associated with…it’s just kind of a freak thing…He didn’t do anything off the field…it wasn’t like he was riding a snowmobile or anything like that. It was just more of a medical condition or situation that really didn’t improve as much of the as everybody would have hoped…I’d never seen the condition. ” – Nick Caserio

#Texans GM Nick Caserio said Joe Mixon’s mysterious injury — which caused him to miss the entire season — was a freak thing he’s never seen before and not off-the-field related, like a snowmobile accident, jumping off a building, or anything wild like that. pic.twitter.com/3LtdqvNujR

— Ari Meirov (@MySportsUpdate) January 22, 2026

A whole lot of words to say not very much, and I guess that sums up the breadth of knowledge the Texans are willing to share regarding Mixon. Whether he was in a snowmobile or…jumping off a building…or not, this injury Mixon is suffering from was not significant enough to prevent him from trying to return midseason, but still too much to muster a comeback in time for Houston’s divisional round exit. A very odd situation indeed, and a perfect excuse for Houston to target RB either in free agency and/or the NFL draft in April.

Without Mixon, Houston’s rushing offense was stuck in neutral for much of the season, and, at times, completely nonexistent. Veteran RB Nick Chubb would start as the Texans first fill-in for a bruising tailback, but he would eventually be usurped by one of Houston’s best rookies: Woody Marks. Marks was not the punisher that Mixon could be, but he was all the more elusive as he marched his way towards the starting job halfway through the season. By the end of the regular season, Marks finished his first year as a Texan with 911 yards from scrimmage (703 rushing, 208 receiving), behind only WR Nico Collins in yardage on the team. Despite not being the offense’s strong suit, Marks made the rushing game functional and occasionally great…but it’s going to require more than just him to make the ground game truly deadly.

Nick Chubb is not immediately expected to return from free agency after an underwhelming year, so the compliment to Marks is completely unknown. Backup RBs Jawhar Jordan and British Brooks showed real promise in limited action, but they would not challenge an incoming veteran or top 100-pick for the backup spot behind Marks. Hopefully, with a small stable of reliable RBs, the ground-game should flourish once again. My personal favorite targets both in free agency and the draft are:

Top Running Backs in 2026 NFL Free Agency:

• RB Kenneth Walker III – Seattle Seahawks
• RB Breece Hall – New York Jets
• RB Tyler Allgeier – Atlanta Falcons

Top Running Back Prospects in 2026 NFL Draft:

• RB Emmett Johnson – Nebraska
• RB Kaytron Allen – Penn State
• RB Mike Washington Jr. – Arkansas

Check out Kaytron “Fatman” Allen demonstrating why he is going to be one of the top RBs in this years draft.

Solid vision, burst, contact balance and just enough wiggle in open space to be dangerous. pic.twitter.com/NweHdo3i6R

— Newt Westen (@NFLDraft_Westen) January 20, 2026

2. Guard (LG in particular)​

Tytus Howard, Kenyon Green, Kendrick Green, Juice Scruggs, Jarrett Patterson, Laken Tomlinson – these are the names of all of the players the Houston Texans have had at LG in the last two seasons. Kenyon Green is Nick Caserio’s only first round bust, Kendrick Green was an interim player at the position, and Scruggs and Patterson were centers called upon due to a lack of depth at guard. Tomlinson was brought into the building in 2025 to provide stability at the position, but would lose his starting job to Tytus Howard, who is normally the starting RT but kicked it inside thanks to a healthy RT Trent Brown manning the bookend. This stream of interchanging players and position-blending is not a recipe for success, nor is it helpful to QB CJ Stroud, and we all bore witness to the impact of not having a true starter at LG in the divisional round against the Patriots when the interior line was torn to shreds by DT Milton Williams.

Milton Williams STRAINING against a double-team and gets in on the tackle for no gain. https://t.co/QysCk0H6HE pic.twitter.com/2cHytkHabc

— Nate Tice (@Nate_Tice) January 19, 2026

Nick Caserio’s strange method of addressing the offensive line – scooping up random middling starters and disappointing young players in free agency – did yield new starters at C (Jake Andrews) and RG (Ed Ingram), much to my surprise. However, LG remains his Achilles heel, and I’d rather see him address it with a top-50 draft pick than go hunting through the bargain-bin of other teams’ rosters, again. After the success of Ed Ingram, though, I fear he may be emboldened by his rather scattershot philosophy. But, Caserio is not exactly predictable either, so regardless of what direction he decides to walk backwards into, I hope he considers these options:

Top Guards in 2026 NFL Free Agency:

• LG David Edwards – Buffalo Bills
• LG Isaac Seumalo – Pittsburgh Steelers
• LG Alijah Vera-Tucker – New York Jets

Top Guard Prospects in 2026 NFL Draft:

• LG Olaivavega Ioane – Penn State
• T/G Francis Mauigoa – Miami
• RG Keylan Rutledge – Georgia Tech

Keylan Rutledge is the physical mauler that everyone wants to see in 1v1s at the Senior Bowl https://t.co/I3D9OlfYdn pic.twitter.com/mI3kc3XqK8

— NFL Draft Files (@NFL_DF) December 2, 2025

3. Tight End​

In the modern NFL, having multiple good tight ends almost feels like cheating. To have multiple players on the field that can either block or go out as a receiver adds so much versatility to an offense that one of the NFL’s most popular developments in the passing attack has been running a play quest the tight end pretends to be a blocker, only for them to turn around and play receiver a few seconds after the ball is snapped (this trend is also spreading to RBs as well, which we saw with Woody Marks in the Chiefs game.) Having a tight end leak out of the backfield after chipping a defender is one of the easiest ways to rack up cheap yards on offense, which is why you see teams like the Buffalo Bills and Green Bay Packers building their offenses around multiple tight end sets. Texans offensive coordinator Nick Caley actually employed some of these concepts last year when he was the passing game coordinator for the L.A. Rams, but they were a bit more of a rarity in Houston in 2025. Dalton Schultz was still a major part of the offense in 2025, but he was only occasionally used as a decoy blocker or receiver. Due to the broken foot injury backup TE Cade Stover suffered in week 1 that put him on IR, and the season-ending injury TE Brevin Jordan suffered in August, many of those multiple TE formations got buried in the back of Caley’s playbook, never to see the light of day…until 2026!

This is the key to Houston unlocking their offense once again. They’ve already signaled interest in versatile TEs by re-signing Jordan to a one-year deal just a month ago whilst he’s still in recovery from his second season-ending torn ACL in a row. Even with the extension, there’s no doubt Nick Caserio has taken notice of Jordan’s lack of availability, so I expect some Jordan-like reinforcements to arrive in Houston either in free agency or the draft so that a few injuries to this position group won’t turn it into a Schultz-only show. My favorite targets are:

Top Tight Ends in 2026 NFL Free Agency:

• TE David Njoku – Cleveland Browns
• TE Kyle Pitts – Atlanta Falcons
• TE Isaiah Likely – Baltimore Ravens

Top Tight Ends in 2026 NFL Draft:

• TE Kenyon Sadiq – Oregon
• TE Eli Stowers – Vanderbilt
• TE Tanner Koziol – Houston

Tanner Koziol is 6’7, has a monster catch radius, and wins 61% of his contested targets.

Potential red zone MACHINE in the NFL https://t.co/u0bQadKddO pic.twitter.com/3KRfrVSQCz

— NFL Draft Files (@NFL_DF) December 8, 2025

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And that’s my list of way-too-early free agent and draft targets for the Houston Texans! I really believe the season-ending injuries to both Joe Mixon and Brevin Jordan amputated the kind of offense Nick Caley was looking to implement – one that can run over opposing defenses to set up the play-action passes and keep the defense guessing with multiple tight ends. I would have loved to have seen a 2025 Texans offense with a healthy Mixon and Jordan, but that is not the hand we were dealt. Houston isn’t the only team to have suffered debilitating injuries at the onset of the regular season, so they should have been prepared for this scenario. Hopefully, with a more loaded backfield, o-line, and tight end’s room, the Texans will be able to waltz past any major injury unscathed in 2026.

What do you think, though? Should the Texans target these spots on offense during the offseason, or is there a more important position for the team to focus on? Is there any position on the defense you’d rather see addressed, like LB or S? Or, are you still looking for a the player to follow up CJ Stroud? Let us know your thoughts down in the comments below!

Go Texans!!!

Source: https://www.battleredblog.com/general/73896/houston-texans-top-3-offseason-targets

 

[Houston Texans]

Value of Things: A Theoretical C.J. Stroud contract

I made a statement in the last VOT that this decision will be the hardest decision in franchise history. The Texans paid their last franchise quarterback a lot of money, but the decision to pay him was not difficult. Everyone in the organization and city agreed at the time that he was a franchise quarterback. Everyone does not agree this time around. There is obviously what the going rate says about what quarterbacks should make and there is what performance would say.

You can split the NFL into three tiers. There are the top ten quarterbacks in salary and performance. For the most part they match, but that is not universally true. It could be easy to say that if your quarterback is not a top ten quarterback then he shouldn’t be paid like a top ten quarterback. The last tier is the tier of young quarterbacks that haven’t been paid yet or teams that are simply punting on quarterback until they can find a better one in free agency or the draft.

We are concerned with the middle group. These are guys that are entrenched in their locations, but they were not paid top dollar for one reason or another. In some cases, they signed their deals before the last couple of seasons when salaries exploded. In others cases they just weren’t considered top tier quarterbacks. If we include Stroud in that group then there are ten such quarterbacks.

A large part of my communication with David Mulugheta (Stroud’s agent) would be that he doesn’t want to negotiate based on where Stroud is right now. That would put Stroud firmly in the group of quarterbacks underneath the top ten. In this table, we will look at completion percentage, yards per game, yards per attempt, TD%, and INT%. We can determine where Stroud fits within that group and then look at player salaries for the group. There are a number of different ways to play this and I think what you will see is that all of them will arrive at a similar place and similar number.

Games	PCT	YPG	YPA	TD%	INT%
Matthew Stafford	48	64.4	259.0	7.6	5.5	1.7
Baker Mayfield	51	66.3	239.9	7.3	5.7	2.2
Sam Darnold	35	66.7	247.5	8.1	5.8	2.5
Patrick Mahomes	46	66.0	254.3	7.0	4.5	2.1
Kirk Cousins	30	66.3	252.0	7.3	4.5	2.5
C.J. Stroud	46	63.8	236.4	7.5	4.3	1.7
Geno Smith	47	67.7	233.4	7.2	3.9	2.7
Kyler Murray	30	67.8	220.4	6.8	3.8	2.0
Aaron Rodgers	34	64.2	212.3	6.7	4.8	1.7
Daniel Jones	29	66.1	209.7	6.9	3.3	2.4

There are any number of ways to look at this data, but we should begin by removing Stroud entirely and looking at the average amongst the remaining nine quarterbacks. We calculate average in two different ways. We can look at the numerical mean (mathematical average) or the median (the number in the middle). We then can compare Stroud’s numbers with those averages

• Mean: 38.9 games, 66.2 PCT, 236.5 YPG, 7.2 YPA, 4.6 TD%, 2.2 INT%
• Median: 35 games, 66.3 PCT, 239.9 YPG, 7.3 YPA, 4.5 TD%, 2.1 INT%

So, based on these numbers, Stroud finishes better than average in about half the categories and below average in the other half. That would seem to indicate he is right around average. If we look at his composite ranking then he would rank in a tie for fifth with Kirk Cousins. So, if we were following Bill James’ similarity scores model then he would be closest to Cousins.

• Mean AAV: 34.5 million
• Median AAV: 37.5 million
• 5th place AAV: 37.5 million
• Kirk Cousins AAV: 45.0 million

If we were to assume that the top ten quarterbacks in salary are all better than Stroud and these quarterbacks are the next tier then Stroud fits somewhere nicely around the middle of the league. Obviously, some of the younger quarterbacks like Drake Maye and Bo Nix might be better if we were to break them down as well, but some quarterbacks on top might be worse. He is an average NFL starting quarterback no matter which way you slice it.

Putting it all together​

The numbers above represent a minimum and maximum for Stroud in a contract. The minimum probably sits at 35 million and the maximum sits at 45 million. If I were Mulugheta I would likely choose to wait another year to see what happens with average salaries and hope that Stroud can put up better numbers and move himself up that ladder.

If I were the Texans I might go as high as 45 million in AAV. That would mean he would be getting the same pay as Kirk Cousins and Patrick Mahomes. Mulugheta could spin that however he wants, but if I were Nick Caserio I would probably keep the contract at about 40 million now and explain that we would prefer to wait a season and negotiate off of a happier ending. Based on these numbers alone (and forgetting the way it ended) it would seem foolish to offer 50 million per season or more. Of course, that is why I am sitting here and why the people are NRG are sitting where they are.

Source: https://www.battleredblog.com/houst...e-of-things-a-theoretical-c-j-stroud-contract

 

[Houston Texans]

The Day After The Day After (Plus 1): Thoughts on the Houston Texans and Conference Championship Weekend

The Day After the Day After…when the raw, immediate emotions from the aftermath of a game diminish into the realm of clarity and the proverbial (or literal) hangover no longer haunts the mind. With that, a review of Conference Championship Weekend:

A painful weekend for Texans’ fans: It is said that perhaps the four cruelest words ever said were “what might have been” After this weekend, more than few Texans’ fans might agree with that sentiment. For the AFC Championship game, the Patriots, fresh off their victory over Houston, continued their most improbable playoff run since their 1985 version, knocking off the Broncos 10-7 in a defensive slugfest/kicking optional game. It didn’t help the Broncos that they trotted out Jarrett Stidham, making his first career start. Still, Denver will rue this game, with the questionable play-calls and all the missed FGs. Thus, the Patriots claimed their 10th Lamar Hunt Trophy this decade.

However, for Houston, who has never won one, much less had the chance to win one, this result must have stung. What if Houston doesn’t turn the ball over 5 times at New England? New England wasn’t all that much more dominant than Houston, only that Houston shot themselves in the foot more than New England blasted them. As for Denver, yes, the Broncos won in Houston, but would that Broncos team on Sunday have really been enough to overcome Houston, especially if Houston could avoid the dumb mistakes? Fairbairn kicking FGs would have been more effective than either kicker this day, even with the conditions. Regardless, Houston, much like all the other felled AFC teams, must grit their teeth and watch New England try for yet another ring.

The Redemption of Sam Darnold and hope for the Texans: In the other game this past Sunday, the Seattle Seahawks set up a rematch of Super Bowl XLIX (yes, the jokes about running on the 1-yard line are flying fast and furious) by overcoming the LA Rams in a barnburner of a NFC championship game, 31-27. A key to Seattle’s win was the play of Sam Darnold, who went 25-of-36 for 346 yards and 3 TDs. The much-maligned QB managed to come through in this playoff run, albeit one helped by a ferocious defense, a strong running game, and the massive home-field advantage of Lumen Field. Mocked for failed clutch performances (see the last two games of the previous season) as well as his career long struggles, Darnold, at least to this point, showed why the Jets thought he might make a franchise QB. This isn’t to say he couldn’t turn into another Kerry Collins, but after this week, Darnold has earned the right to tell his critics what they do with themselves.

What does this have to do with the Texans? Well, consider the current situation for another top-3 drafted QB. CJ Stroud is persona non grata with many in the Texans’ fanbase, especially after this particular playoff run. Much like Darnold, Stroud has shown that pressure can get to him, and he is facing questions about his performance in clutch situations. Yet, unlike Darnold, Stroud has won in multiple playoff appearances. At least for the next season or so, he should have a strong defense to lean on, and the improvement in the running game is not impossible for Houston. If Stroud can recapture his better moments, a Darnold-esque run is not that far-fetched in the future. It would help if Houston could get actual homefield advantage for one or more rounds in the playoffs, but that is what the offseason is for, to try to set up for such a run.

The Coaching Cycle Keeps Rolling: While the last game in New England left a bitter taste in many a fan’s mouth, the bigger picture is that Houston finished 12-5 with a 3rd straight appearance in the NFL Divisional Playoff Round. Thus, teams with coaching vacancies are looking at members of the Houston coaching staff. Since the firing/hiring season for coaches started, several Houston coaches interviewed for various coaching openings, usually for the chance to move to higher profile/higher paying positions. Defensive Coordinator Matt Burke logged head coaching interviews with the Arizona Cardinals. Defensive Backs Coach Dino Vasso interviewed with the Tennessee Titans for their open Defensive Coordinator position. Earlier this week, reports surfaced that QB Coach Jerrod Johnson would interview for the Eagles Offensive Coordinator position.

To this point, the Texans have not fired any coaches. Questions about Nick Caley after a less-than-stellar debut season as offensive coordinator haunted the team after their run ended, but according to the Texans, Caley is slated to return to Houston. As for those coaches who have interviewed, the loss of Burke and or Vasso would likely sting the most for the franchise. For Vasso, the Texans’ secondary was one of the best in the league, with All-Pro Derek Stingley Jr, and Pro Bowl selectees Calen Bullock and Kamari Lassiter helping to log 19 INTs and surrendering the 7th fewest passing yards and only 20 TDs this season. Likely Houston is keeping lists of potential replacements for any of these coaches, should they leave for greener pastures.

FUN WITH NUMBERS:

0-4: Houston’s record against the NFL’s final four this season. Not exactly the greatest endorsement for Houston that they couldn’t beat any of the teams that got to the Conference Title Games. Perhaps that helps with the pain. Doesn’t help that only the Denver game was at Houston, the others on the road.

7.2: Margin of defeat in those 4 games. The New England game skews that number a little bit, but setting aside a 12-point loss that wasn’t as decisive as the score indicates, Houston only lost to the other three teams by a collective 17 points. They were close. Sure, that only counts in horseshoes and nukes, but you can understand if the Texans braintrust thinks that the team wasn’t that far off of a title run.

7: Total Pro Bowlers on the squad. Ok, the Pro Bowl isn’t what it used to be, but with Bullock and Lassiter named as alternates, that gives the squad 6 members on the squad, and unlike some others (Shedeur Sanders, cough, cough, Shedeur Sanders), these guys earned that consideration. That six are defenders…well, did you see that defense this season?

GAME BALLS:

All Emergency Responders and Technicians Working to Restore Power, Clear Roads and Helping People Get Through This Winter Storm. Been a rough week weather-wise for a lot of folks, Texans fans and others. It isn’t much, but we have to give them some type of credit.

DECLARATIONS OF IDIOCY:

No one has really earned that this week. Any candidates for that designation have already received their cyber beatdowns, especially in Denver and Los Angeles. Moving along…

Next up, if so inclined, the next NFL-ish event is the Pro Bowl Skills Challenge on Tuesday, February 3 at 5:30 CST on ESPN/Disney XD.

Source: https://www.battleredblog.com/houst...on-texans-and-conference-championship-weekend

 

[Houston Texans]

The Tank Dell Effect

In the previous iteration of the Houston Texans, before Watson unmasked himself, the offense excelled when Will Fuller V was streaking down the field like his nicknamesake The Flash.

Under Demeco Ryans, Tank Dell fills that role for the team. In ‘23 & ‘24, Dell combined for 156 targets, 98 receptions, 1376 yards, 69 first downs and 10 scores. He also had 10 rushing attempts for 94 yards. With Dell on the field, and the ball in C.J. Stroud’s hands, anything seemed possible.

Unfortunately, like Fuller V, Dell has yet to survive a single NFL campaign. His latest season, 2024, ended prematurely when Dell suffered a very nasty knee injury while scoring a rather spectacular touchdown.

Texans WR Tank Dell is going to be carted to the locker room with a knee injury after scoring on this play:

pic.twitter.com/4irMJNGOkA

— Adam Schefter (@AdamSchefter) December 21, 2024

ESPN – KANSAS CITY, Mo. — Houston Texans wideout Tank Dell was carted off the field with what coach DeMeco Ryans called a “significant” knee injury after he caught a touchdown pass during Saturday’s 27-19 loss to the Kansas City Chiefs.

Dell was taken to University of Kansas Hospital, a Level 1 trauma center about 12 miles from Arrowhead Stadium. Ryans said Sunday that Dell was flying back to Houston but still set to meet with doctors for evaluation.

A source told ESPN that Dell dislocated his kneecap, confirming an NFL Network report. Any other potential injuries to the knee weren’t immediately known.

On the Texans’ first possession of the second half, quarterback C.J. Stroud threw a 30-yard touchdown pass to Dell to cut Kansas City’s lead to 17-16. But on the reception, Texans wideout Jared Wayne collided with Dell’s lower leg deep in the end zone, and Dell immediately grabbed his leg but otherwise barely moved.

It’s pretty easy to make an argument that had Dell not been injured, Houston goes on to win that game and have better fortune in the 2024 NFL playoffs.

And, beyond that, what would the 2025 Texan campaign have looked like? Particularly the final game against the New England Patriots where Stroud had what could easily be characterized as his worst professional outing. Without WR1 Nico Collins, TE1 Dalton Schultz and Dell, plus starting RT Trent Brown, Stroud seemed to come apart at the seams as the game went on.

Recently, Texans general manager Nick Caserio gave an end-of-season presser, detailing all sorts of Texans tidbits.

Yahoo Sports – “[To be determined],” Caserio said of Dell possibly returning to form. “We have the resources available. I would anticipate him being available for offseason. Have a better idea when you get on field what that actually looks like, Knowing Tank, cautiously optimistic he can be Tank Dell.”

Dell wasted no time jumping back into the spotlight, backing his close friend Stroud after the historically disappointing AFC Division Round disaster.

Tank Dell said people can say what they want about C.J. Stroud, but when they get back out there together on the field he said “It’s going to be special.” pic.twitter.com/xoHQBumgXO

— Jonathan M Alexander (@jonmalexander) January 28, 2026

When you compare their 17-game averages via Pro-Football-Reference, Dell and Fuller V certainly share a lot of killer traits:

Dell: 106 Targets, 67 Receptions, 936 yards, 14.0 yard/catch average, 47 first downs, 7 touchdowns

Fuller V: 105 Targets, 66 Receptions, 969 yards, 14.7 yard/catch average, 44 first downs, 7 touchdowns

In an almost eerie similarity, neither played more than 14 games in a season – so far.

I happened to be at NRG the day Will Fuller first arrived, roughly 24 hours after the Texans drafted the speedster. What immediately jumped out at me when he climbed out of the Escalade and onto H-Town ground was how skinny his legs were. I mentioned how impressed I was that a guy that thin could survive the brutality of hit after hit from NFL defenders, not truly realizing how the young man would only average 9 games in his 6-year NFL career.

Fuller’s first season saw 14 total games, with 10 the second and 7 the third.

Dell played 11 games his rookie year, 14 in the second season and zero his third year.

If one of the most exciting players in Texans history hopes to elevate the offense in 2026, his durability will have to buck the odds.

Not to mention how will he integrate into Nick Caley’s “hammer the A-gap” offense? Caley certainly hasn’t helped players juke the injury bug.

Thankfully, it’s the Texans off-season, where hope springs eternal! And, we can all dream of Dell catching the game winning pass in next year’s Super Bowl.

Houston Texans fans: Waiting for Next Season Since 2002 ™ ©

Source: https://www.battleredblog.com/houston-texans-analysis/73928/the-tank-dell-effect

 

[Houston Texans]

Texans Fire 3 Assistant Coaches

The Houston Texans have made their first significant staff changes of the 2026 offseason. KPRC’s Aaron Wilson reports that the team is moving on from tight ends coach Jake Moreland, assistant linebacker coach Ben Bolling, and offensive assistant Mike Snyder:

Sources: #Texans fire tight ends coach Jake Moreland, move on from assistant linebackers coach Ben Bolling, not renewing offensive assistant Mike Snyder @KPRC2 https://t.co/4AFhuazmb4 https://t.co/GSyvfuVa8L

— Aaron Wilson (@AaronWilson_NFL) January 28, 2026

All three coaches have spent multiple years on Houston’s staff, and now all will be casualties of the 2025 season.

Jake Moreland had just finished his third year as the tight ends coach for the Houston Texans in 2025, leading starting TE Dalton Schultz to his most productive season with the Texans. Schultz finished the season with 82 receptions on 106 targets (77.4 Ctch%) for 777 yards and 3 touchdowns. Schultz never broke 100+ receiving yards in a game in 2025, but was instrumental in keeping the Texans on the field against the Jacksonville Jaguars, Tennessee Titans, and Indianapolis Colts. Besides Schutlz, backup TE Cade Stover had 12 receptions on 16 targets (75 Ctch%) for 76 yards, a disappointing showing by Houston’s #2 TE, but he demonstrated moderate improvement in blocking and when the Texans ran the tush push play on 4th-and-short.

Before joining the Texans in 2023, Moreland spent one year as the Denver Broncos tight ends coach, one year as the New York Jets assistant offensive line coach, and a combined 18 years as a coach in the collegiate ranks for Elmhurst college (2003), Saint Joseph’s (2004), Western Michigan (2005-11, 2017-20), Air Force (2012-14, 2016), and Syracuse (2015). Before his coaching career, Moreland was one of Western Michigan’s most prolific tight ends in school history, and went on to play two seasons in the NFL, one for the New York Jets (2000) and one for the Cleveland Browns (2001). Even though the tight ends’ room was not the most productive in 2025, I find Moreland’s departure a bit head scratching. Under his tutelage, Dalton Schultz had three great years in Houston and became one of QB CJ Stroud’s favorite targets. It would have been interesting to see if Moreland would have held onto his position as tight ends coach if TE Brevin Jordan had remained healthy for the 2025 season and functioned as the extra blocking/receiving tight end the Texans were searching for. Instead of Jordan, Moreland had to rely more on Stover and trade acquisition Harrison Bryant, who played adequately, but clearly not well enough to give Moreland job security.

A day at practice with offensive line coach and alum Jake Moreland (@coachjakemo). #LetsRide #BeABronco #WeWillReign pic.twitter.com/JhM9X4QtSB

— Western Michigan Football (@WMU_Football) March 21, 2017

Mike Snyder is the least tenured of the three coaches fired yesterday, just finishing his second season with Houston as an offensive assistant. There was no cutting around the disappointment on offense this season, as the team finished 13th in points, 18th in yards, and 29th in red zone scoring percentage (45.9%). Snyder is credited with working with the wide receivers in 2024, where Nico Collins tallied 1,006 receiving yards and earned his first pro-bowl nod, Tank Dell tallied 667 receiving yards before his injury, and free agent acquisition Stefon Diggs totaled 496 receiving yards before his injury.

Before joining the Texans in 2024, Snyder served as a football analyst for the Atlanta Falcons (2022-2023), and the assistant quarterbacks coach (2021) and offensive quality control coach for the Chicago Bears (2018-2021). Like Moreland, it can be debated whether or not Snyder deserved to be let go, but after the very disappointing finish in the divisional round against the New England Patriots, few NFL coaching staffs would survive without a few heads rolling.

Ben Bolling is, at least to me, the most surprising termination of the group. Bolling, a former wide receivers and safeties coach at Campbell University, was a part of Houston’s defensive coaching staff since general manager Nick Caserio’s first year with the Texans in 2021. Serving as a defensive assistant in his first four years with the Texans, Bolling was present at the foundation of the current regime’s magnum opus: the defense. That side of the ball improved year after year, and after being promoted assistant linebacker coach in 2025, Bolling contributed to one of the best position groups in the country.

Both starting LBs, Azeez Al-Shaair and Henry To’oTo’o, expedited Houston’s ascension to the defensive throne by having career years, each just a season removed from their previous highs in 2024. Al-Shaair finished his 2025 campaign with 16 starts, a team-leading 103 tackles, 1 tackle for loss, 2 QB hits, 9 pass deflections, 2 interceptions, 1 forced fumble, and 1 fumble recovery. With a season like that, Al-Shaair earned his first pro-bowl selection of his career in 2025, cementing him as one of Houston’s best defenders. To’oTo’o finished his third year in the NFL with 14 starts, 95 tackles, 9 tackles for loss, 4 QB hits, 2.5 sacks, 4 pass deflections, and 1 fumble recovery. Both were stars at their positions last season, and both improved on their #1 issues: pass coverage. To’oTo’o’s pass coverage was Patriots QB Drake Maye’s kryptonite in the divisional round game, so it’s unfortunate that not only was that performance not enough to win the game, but also not enough to save Bolling’s job.

The play I mentioned during the game in which To'oTo'o blew up Jonathan Taylor in pass pro pic.twitter.com/vx94Szrats

— JaysonBraddock (@JaysonBraddock) December 1, 2025

What do you think of these firings, though? Were you prepared for some departures on both sides of the ball, or did Bolling’s departure surprise you as much as it did me? Was there someone else you’d rather have seen gone, or even someone you hope they pick up in place of these coaches? Let us know your thoughts down in the comments below!

Go Texans!

Source: https://www.battleredblog.com/general/73931/texans-fire-3-assistant-coaches

 

[Houston Texans]

Value of Things: Texans Quarterback Alternatives

I work throughout the day as a teacher. Officially, I am a special education teacher, but I spend the vast majority of my time in English classrooms. If there is one axiom that has been drilled into us over the years (28 for me) it is that if one student has a question then a lot more have the same question and are afraid or too timid to ask. I had one commenter ask a question that should be the number one question for any Texan fan. If C.J. Stroud is not the answer at quarterback then who is?

Before I get there, I should note my personal view of Stroud as we speak. I believe that you cannot give him a hefty extension now under any circumstances. You should never give a player a huge extension if you aren’t sure if they are the guy at that position. Of course, that doesn’t mean you have to jettison Stroud. You don’t have to make the call on extending him now. You can exercise the fifth year option and effectively kick the can down the road another year. Maybe he shows you something in year four that makes you more comfortable with extending him.

All that being said, there is a point of view that says if you don’t think he is the guy now then he probably never will be the guy. I’m not necessarily advocating that, but if we follow that thought experiment to its logical conclusion then that would assume Stroud is dealt for either another quarterback option or draft capital. So, what are the reasonable options at that point.

The Big Fish​

Kyler Murray: 67.1 completion percentage, 6.86 adjusted yards per attempt, 4.1 TD%, 2.0 INT%, 92.2 rating, 32 rushing touchdowns

This would almost certainly involve trading Stroud to the Cardinals. Obviously, the Cardinals have given up on Murray and given that he has a contract connected to him, Stroud would be worth more than Murray. So, I’m guessing that additional compensation would be coming from the Cardinals. It would be impossible to say how much. The Rams traded two firsts along with Jared Goff to get Matthew Stafford. There is no way in hell that Stroud is worth two firsts AND another quarterback. Could he be worth an additional second or third round pick? I suppose anything is possible.

Pros: Murray has better numbers than Stroud and is a lot more athletic. He is already under contract. I am not a capologist, so I am not going to be speculate as to how much the Texans would be responsible. Officially, the cash for 2026 is 42 million, but that comes with a base salary just under 23 million. Obviously, the Cards will be on the hook for some of that. Athletically, there is probably no one better in the league outside of Lamar Jackson. So, obviously, if you feel like he could fit into the Caley system then he could give you some things that Stroud cannot.

Cons: Saying that Murray has missed time would be a gross understatement. The Cardinals finally gave up on waiting for him to be healthy. There are numerous scouts and executives that think he is too small to make it as a quarterback. He also had most of his success in a glorified college system. So, there is no obvious system fit. He might be a financial fit, but he may not be a positional fit.

Trade Market​

Mac Jones: 66.5 completion percentage, 6.36 adjusted yards per completion, 3.6 TD%, 2.7 INT%, 86.9 rating

Jones has more or less rehabilitated himself in San Francisco. We have seen other quarterbacks do the same with Sam Darnold being the most obvious of those. He is slated to make about four million dollars next season. The Texans wouldn’t be the only ones in line for him, but they may have the most attractive opportunity for him and his career.

Pros: Jones put up much better numbers in the Shanahan system than he did in New England. That includes turnovers as he had a 2.1 interception percentage. I should note that Stroud has a very similar record the last two seasons. If we assume that last year is the real Jones then he could easily be just as good as Stroud right now. He might even be a better fit for Caley offense when all is said and done.

Cons: 2026 is the last year of his contract, so he would be a pure rental. Obviously, if he balls out then you would have the exact same issue that you would have with Stroud if he balls out. Like Stroud, he is limited physically, so you would have to work harder to protect him. That means invested more draft capital in the offensive line and possibly sign a free agent. Obviously, we don’t know what draft capital would come back for Stroud and how much would go out for Jones.

Free Agents​

Malik Willis: 67.7 completion percentage, 8.43 adjusted yards per attempt, 3.9 TD%, 1.9 INT%, 98.9 rating, 4 rushing TD

Obviously, there is no telling how much money and how long a contract would be for Willis. His playing time has been more limited, so you would be buying on spec. At best, he could be a Lamar Jackson type of quarterback. At worst, he would be very limited offensively. He might be the most sought after free agent quarterback on the list, but I doubt there would be a more attractive location than Houston.

Pros: As a free agent, you can structure the contract any way you want. It could be a short-term prove it deal or a long-term contract with a relatively low AAV as compared to the monster contracts that the big boys get. If he ends up being a Lamar Jackson clone you will have won the lottery. Who knows what his running ability would do to the offense, but at the very worst he would be able to make more plays when the protection goes sideways.

Cons: Most scouts question his throwing ability and accuracy. The numbers say something different, but he might not be capable of making the throws that Stroud was able to make when he was at his best. So, some offensive adjustments would need to be made.

Marcus Mariota: 62.8 completion percentage, 7.21 adjusted yards per attempt, 4.5 TD%, 2.6 INT%, 89.7 rating, 19 rushing TDs

Mariota has had a bit of a renaissance of sorts in Washington running the same system that Kyler Murray ran in Arizona. This is a less than appealing option long-term, but he would likely come cheaper than Willis and would be a much more short-term option.

Pros: Since Mariota is obviously athletic, he would be a more appealing starting option than Davis Mills. However, he has better career numbers than Mills even though many see him as a failed quarterback. Obviously, if you have a system that does not expect its quarterback to do as much then he could be a very reasonable option until you are able to get your long-term answer.

Cons: When you have two backup quarterbacks then you have no starting quarterbacks. It would be very fair to question whether such a move would be a step backwards at a time when you can ill afford to take a step backwards.

Preferred Route​

The best bet out of this group is probably Mac Jones. All roster moves of this type are a gamble. What we have seen in recent years is that some first round quarterbacks have been able to restart their careers elsewhere. I think that is a much more reasonable gamble than any of the others and Jones might very well be more suited for a Nick Caley system than C.J. Stroud.

Source: https://www.battleredblog.com/houst...lue-of-things-texans-quarterback-alternatives