Houston Rockets
Team Leader
The Rockets should pick up the pace
Source: https://www.thedreamshake.com/rockets-analysis/37269/the-houston-rockets-should-pick-up-the-pace
A lot of Rockets fans just witnessed their first full, top-down rebuild.
Some of us have been here before.
When the Rockets’ geriatric Olajuwon/Barkley/Pippen trio finally got put to pasture, the team’s future was unclear. Had Steve Francis not rejected Vancouver (a beautiful city, as long as you’re not in the DTES), who knows what may have happened?
When he arrived in Space City, the future was crystallized. Cuttino Mobley was the cherry on top. The Rockets would build the league’s highest octane offense around a dynamic backcourt:
But Yao Ming had other plans.
The Rockets weren’t supposed to land the number one pick in 2002. They defied the lottery Gods when they still had dominion – the odds weren’t flattened yet, but the Rockets landed the first pick with the ninth-highest odds anyway.
The rest is history. Francis and Ming proved a suspect fit, so the Rockets flipped Francis and Mobley for Tracy McGrady. They built an outstanding roster around their star duo, and could have won an NBA title if not for untimely injuries.
Rockets fans got attached to a vision. Something better came along, and the organization smartly pivoted.
History has now repeated itself.
The tanking Rockets were going to be built around supreme athleticism. That was clear once they selected Jalen Green. The opportunity to grab roughly the most athletic person ever in Amen Thompson solidified the vision: This team was going to run:
But Alperen Sengun was the new Yao Ming.
No lottery luck needed. The Rockets wisely made a draft-day deal to acquire Sengun. He’s emerged as their best player, and the vision has changed. The Rockets have constructed a slower half-court attack around Sengun’s strengths. They even flipped Green for one of the very best half-court scorers in NBA history to bolster their plan of attack.
And that’s great! In the postseason, half-court offense always reigns supreme. The league’s best teams don’t cede transition opportunities willingly. The game slows down. It’s optimal to generate the bulk of your offense in half-court sets:
But are the Rockets taking it too far?
Rockets could stand to run
As of this writing, the Rockets’ 97.26 pace ranks 28th in the NBA. Only the Celtics and Clippers play slower.
Sengun’s offensive approach isn’t the only reason the Rockets slow it down. As the league’s best offensive rebounding team, it behooves them to slow it down. Crashing the boards puts you in a less ideal position to defend transition, and the Rockets want to be set up to collect misses anyway.
Nobody is suggesting the Rockets overhaul their approach. The team’s third-ranked 121.4 Offensive Rating speaks for itself:
But there’s certainly room to tinker.
Firstly, the Rockets could be less committed to twin-towers lineups. Go ahead and scour CleaningTheGlass: You won’t find a double big lineup with meaningful floor time and a positive differential.
Frankly, I’d give Jabari Smith Jr. a bit more time at the 5. He’s playing 3% of his minutes there in 2025-26, which is a career low by far.
For those suffering PTSD (Piercey-Traumatic Stress Disorder): No, I don’t want to squeeze Sengun out.
The team can run with Sengun in the lineup. If he collects the board, he can leverage his floor vision to push the pace and make a quick outlet pass. When Thompson gets the board, Sengun is often near the halfcourt line by the time he’s dribbling anyway. Sengun defends further from the basket than an average big man, so that puts him in a position to receive transition passes.
Perhaps Tari Eason’s return will incentivize the Rockets to run. His 1.8% Steal Percentage is far below his career 2.9% mark. If Eason can get back to his terrorizing ways, it could create opportunities for Houston to push the pace.
Once more: This isn’t about changing everything. The Rockets are in good shape. Most of their strategic pillars are strong. If they could just bump that pace up from 28th to, say, 20th or so, they’ll be able to capitalize on their surplus of athletic players to generate some easy transition buckets:
Even if it’s not the primary source of their identity.
Source: https://www.thedreamshake.com/rockets-analysis/37269/the-houston-rockets-should-pick-up-the-pace
