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[Cincinnati Reds]

Method to the madness: why the Reds are still in on Kyle Schwarber

You can take as many grains of salt as you see fit before considering a possible signing of slugger Kyle Schwarber by the Cincinnati Reds, of all clubs.

If you’re here, you know the obvious connection – yes, he’s from just up the road from Cincinnati in Middletown, and still calls that part of the state home during the offseason. The idea of getting to play professional baseball for a mighty fee just down the road from home – and for a team you saw all the time growing up – is not without at least a little bit of merit.

Still, we’re talking about a guy who just slugged 56 homers last year and didn’t need Great American Ball Park as his home park to do it, a guy who finished 2nd in National League MVP voting prior to reaching free agency. This is a guy who despite being 33 in March has been estimated to command a contract flirting with $150 million over 5 years, something the Reds have never come close to fathoming in the free agent realm.

The idea is not farfetched. The likelihood of execution is.

That’s more or less the same conclusion reached by Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic on Wednesday, who wraps his note on the flirtation between the Reds and Schwarber with the kicker of money matters most, and it’s difficult to foresee the Reds coming up with enough.

That’s surely not lost on the Reds. What also is not lost, I hope, is just how much this particular signing falls in the silo of actually boosting ticket sales. You can very well make the argument that signing splurging to sign the likes of Teoscar Hernandez, or Cody Bellinger, or Jorge Soler, or any of the other sluggers in free agency in recent years would’ve made the Reds a better ball club (and that more wins create bigger audiences), but it’s impossible to envision a singular signing the Reds could make in this window that a) fits exactly what they need within their lineup and b) would be a direct draw to their wide region of potential ticket buyers.

That’s untapped revenue they cannot really tap in other ways. Pete Alonso? He’d get a bit of it, but only a bit. So, this entire pursuit – however genuine it is – is either a clear sign the Reds see a path to revenues they couldn’t otherwise obtain, or they see that the fans see it and are doing their best to say we know, and we tried!

The other pertinent aspect of this apparently non-zero pursuit is perhaps more important to the actual expectations of the 2026 Cincinnati Reds club. The front office obviously sees that a guy who can take walks and knock the crap out of baseballs is a pretty vital need for this current roster, and failing to make a pursuit of such an upgrade does a disservice to the rest of the roster already on-hand. As for strawman arguments you can make, the 2025 Reds failing to advance in the playoffs (and failing to not finish higher in the regular season standings) likely derives directly from their inability to clobber the baseball, either over the fence or off of it, and any pursuit of Schwarber indicates that the ‘we want guys who hit line drives all over the place’ mantra of Cincinnati’s front office during the rebuild and 2025 may have finally eaten a little bit of crow.

In other words, even if Schwarber ends up signing a gargantuan contract elsewhere, the Reds know – and have made known – that they know they need more thump in this lineup. Any failure to address that in other ways after any failed pursuit of Schwarber then becomes even more egg on the face of the folks putting this roster together for 2026.

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On top of all that, there’s one overriding fact about the Reds in their current position that is worth pointing out that I’ve not really seen highlighted elsewhere, so let’s talk about that.

This is not a roster burdened by the weight of long-term contracts. They’ve got Ke’Bryan Hayes, for whatever reason, but that’s not a deal that should burden any club at its rate. They’ve got Hunter Greene signed for an absolute bargain and could trade him for a haul at any moment of it. Jose Trevino is paid like a moderately overpaid backup catcher for this year and next, and that’s it.

That’s it!

In Brady Singer (~$12 million), Tyler Stephenson (~$6.4 million), and Gavin Lux (~$5 million), you’ve got a trio of players who’ll be free agents at season’s end coming off the books. Lux doesn’t even fit the roster for 2026 without Schwarber, while Singer will be backfilled by the advancement of the likes of Rhett Lowder and Chase Burns (and Brandon Williamson, one hopes) this year. Trevino’s already on the books once Stephenson reaches free agency (barring a surprising extension), and top prospect Alfredo Duno looks like he may well mash his way into the catching conversation as soon as the start of 2027.

That’s a lot of turnover on the payroll after 2026, with a lot of in-house replacement already on hand for it. So when you factor in the chance to spend money on a local who fits the roster perfectly despite his warranted lofty salary expectations, you’ve got to look beyond just 2026 to see how it would fit. And to the best of my peering, it sure looks like it would fit just fine in 2027 – perhaps even better than in 2026.

Ultimately, it will come down to money, as Rosenthal said. That doesn’t always mean the most on the actual contract, though. The cost of a second home, cost of living, etc. all factor into that decision as well, which means the Reds maybe don’t have to come in with the highest offer – they just have to get close enough to make it tough to say no.

If the Reds can’t even do that, well, what are we even doing here?

Source: https://www.redreporter.com/latest-news/49203/kyle-schwarber-rumors-cincinnati-reds-middletown

 

[Cincinnati Reds]

BREAKING: Reds to re-sign closer Emilio Pagán to two-year contract

The Cincinnati Reds made their first splash of the Hot Stove season on Wednesday night, reportedly agreeing to bring back closer Emilio Pagán on a two-year, $20 million contract that includes an opt-out clause after the 2026 season.

MLB.com’s Mark Sheldon and Mark Feinsand relayed the news.

From my teammate Mark Feinsand at MLB . com…Emilio Pagan is headed back to the Reds on a two-year, $20 million deal, per source. The deal, which is pending physical, includes an opt-out after 2026.

— Mark Sheldon (@msheldon.bsky.social) 2025-12-04T00:10:30.434Z

The Reds were in clear need of a closer after, well, Pagán had reached free agency. They remain in dire need of further bullpen upgrades this winter after the likes of Nick Martinez, Scott Barlow, Brent Suter, and Ian Gibaut also became free agents after the 2025 season, too.

Pagán, who’ll turn 35 next May, poured in an excellent campaign for the Reds once he took over the closer role from the struggling Alexis Diaz early on. He finished with a career-best 32 saves while pitching to a 2.88 ERA an 0.92 WHIP in 68.2 IP. That was a firm improvement over the 4.50 ERA and 1.34 WHIP he posted during the 2024 season – his first with the Reds – though it’s interesting to point out that his FIP in 2024 (3.77) was eerily similar to that of his 2025 mark (3.72).

In other words, it’s quite likely he’s much more a pitcher who’s somewhere in between those two annual performances, though the Reds are clearly betting on there being enough good in there to ride it out for 2026 at least.

The move comes in the wake of Devin Williams and Ryan Helsley already coming off the board as high-profile relief options, with Williams in particular having been linked to the Reds earlier in the offseason.

Source: https://www.redreporter.com/cincinnati-reds-rumors/49207/breaking-cincinnati-reds-sign-emilio-pagan

 

[Cincinnati Reds]

Cincinnati Reds links – Pagán signing reactions, Winter Meetings preview

The Cincinnati Reds reunited with closer Emilio Pagán on Wednesday, inking the righty to a deal worth up to $20 million over two years. It includes a player option for the 2027 season at an equal $10 million salary to the one he’ll earn in 2026, and brings back the guy who took the closer’s role and ran with it last year to the tune of a 2.88 ERA and 32 saves.

Gordon Wittenmyer of The Enquirer had some reactions from Emilio in the wake of the deal, with the closer noting that things ‘progressed over the last week, probably more like 72 hours.’ That’s an interesting revelation given that the Reds reportedly had interest in fellow free agent reliever Devin Williams, who signed on Monday with the New York Mets for some $51 million over a trio of years.

For the Reds, it secures a spot at the back end of the bullpen that will hopefully go as well as it did in 2025 and not so similar to how things went for Pagán in 2024. Or, is that exactly what we should expect – some volatility on the surface, but the underlying metrics just about the same? In 2024, Pagán posted a 10.4 K/9, 2.6 BB/9, 1.4 HR/9, and 3.77 FIP. In 2025, those were 10.6 K/9, 2.9 BB/9, 1.3 HR/9, and 3.72 FIP.

I think the Reds are betting much more on those numbers than they are on the 2.88 ERA he had last year, a mark that was 4.50 the year before.

MLB Trade Rumors broke down the signing, noting that the deal brings the current Cincinnati payroll to somewhere in the $100-105 million range. I’ll let you do the math on where it would go if the team somehow managed to fork over what it would take to sign Kyle Schwarber.

Over at Reds.com, Mark Sheldon put together a brief primer on what the Reds front office will have on its agenda when it heads to Orlando over the weekend in preparation for the Winter Meetings, which officially begin on Monday. Some more bullpen and a lot more thump would do!

Speaking of those Winter Meetings (and their proclivity for deal-making), the gang at MLB Pipeline listed the Reds as one of their highlighted teams who ‘have the prospects to swing a big trade at the Winter Meetings,’ and I couldn’t agree more. I just wish I could pinpoint a controllable outfielder with power on a team looking to rebuild who profiled as a match with the Reds, but I’m having a very hard time doing that.

Sam Dykstra and Jesse Borek put their heads together to come up with a list of Rule 5 Draft candidates from each MLB club, with Carlos Jorge the name highlighted from within the Cincinnati farm. That draft will effectively conclude the Winter Meetings on December 10th, and with Pagán’s signing officialy the Reds 40-man roster currently sits with just 39 – meaning they’ve got an open spot to draft a player.

(Or they could, y’know, use that roster spot to sign Schwarber.)

Source: https://www.redreporter.com/red-reposter/49212/cincinnati-reds-links-emilio-pagan-winter-meetings

 

[Cincinnati Reds]

Reds Free Agent Target – 1B/OF Ryan O’Hearn

As the Cincinnati Reds continue their epic quest to somehow land free agent slugger Kyle Schwarber in free agency, it’s hard not to get wrapped up in the Disney-ness of the storyline. He’s from the area, he’s the perfect lineup fit, he’s what will put the Reds over the top for the first time in generation(s), yadda yadda yadda.

Sure, that’d be wonderful. We also know what ownership group we’re dealing with here, and the reality is that Schwarber makes every team look that much better – including many with much more willingness to spend. So, we’re going to continue to try to find ways to improve this Reds ball club beyond just the Schwarberverse, pinpointing players who may be (or tangibly are) available who could fit that bill.

Today, that’s free agent 1B/OF Ryan O’Hearn.

2025 at a glance​

Ryan O’Hearn entered free agency off the best year of his career. Congrats!

The surface stats for the left-handed hitter are excellent – .281/.366/.437 (.803 OPS), 17 HR 63 RBI, 58/109 K/BB in 544 PA split between the Baltimore Orioles and San Diego Padres. That was good for a 127 wRC+ and .349 wOBA, the latter mark tied with Jazz Chisholm and Brent Rooker and sitting just behind Francisco Lindor (.350), Josh Naylor (.351), and Trea Turner (.352). Elly De La Cruz and TJ Friedl tied for the Reds team lead in wOBA at just .333, for reference.

For his work, O’Hearn was valued at 3.0 fWAR/2.4 bWAR.

For his career, he’s a .252/.321/.421 hitter with a .330 wOBA in nearly 2500 career PA, and he’ll turn 33 years old in July of 2026.

The Goods​

A former 8th round pick of the Kansas City Royals, O’Hearn spent parts of five years in the bigs in KC in the cavernous hell that is Kauffman Stadium. As nearly every left-handed hitter who’s ever called that park can attest to (see: MJ Melendez), it’s absolute hell on LHH, with Statcast’s Park Factors rating it between the absolute worst and fifth-worst park for them in terms of dingers for the entirety of the 2017-2022 window O’Hearn spent there.

Once O’Hearn was purchased off waivers by the Baltimore Orioles, though, his career began to turn around. While O’Hearn is far from just a pure power guy, moving to Camden Yards as his home park (which ranked 3rd in HR park factor for LHH for homers in 2025 just behind Great American Ball Park, for instance) seemed to help unlock his swing, and in the 1223 PA he logged with the O’s across 2022-2025 he upped his performance to .277/.342/.454 (.796 OPS).

Baltimore dealt him to the San Diego Padres alongside Ramon Laureano at the 2025 trade deadline as the Friars geared up for their playoff run, and San Diego continued to trust O’Hearn at each of of the positions that defined his versatility prior to joining them.

He’s versatile, with the ability to play both corner OF spots (121 G in the OF in his big league career) as well as play 1B (385 G). And while he’s mostly been platooned and protecte against LHP for the bulk of his career, he actually logged 109 PA against southpaws during the 2025 season and hit better against them (.832 OPS) than he did against RHP (.795 OPS).

The Oddities​

Pinning down exactly what O’Hearn is and can be going forward is a bit of a nightmare, honestly. Not because I expect his production the moment he takes the plate in 2026 to be a nightmare, it’s just that his year to year stats are perhaps as all-over-the-place as any ‘regular’ I can recall.

Take his walk-rate, for instance. Dating back to his debut with KC in 2018, these are his annual marks:

• 2018: 11.8%
• 2019: 10.5%
• 2020: 13.6%
• 2021: 5.1%
• 2022: 5.5%
• 2023: 4.1%
• 2024: 9.3%
• 2025: 10.7%

His strikeout rate takes just as big of a ride:

• 2018: 26.5%
• 2019: 26.8%
• 2020: 28.0%
• 2021: 28.0%
• 2022: 24.1%
• 2023: 22.3%
• 2024: 14.0%
• 2025: 20.0%

They were great! Then they fell off a cliff, kept falling, and cratered…only to climb right back up to being quite good again! Was that maturation? Changing franchises and finding one that stuck with him? Pure luck? Age? Injury? All of the above?!

O’Hearn spoke to the Breaking Bats Podcast a couple of years ago after landing in Baltimore about the evolution of his swing, and that’s a pretty good indicator of how it’s improved over the course of his career through multiple organizations.

Still, that’s a two-year old conversation, and his numbers have continued to fly all over the place since the start of the 2023 season, too!

Here’s another interesting anomaly – the 2025 season, inarguably his best start to finish in the big leagues, featured his lowest rate of hard-hit balls! FanGraphs lists him with just 29.5% hard-hit – down from 34.0% in 2024 and down all the way from 42.4% in 2019 – though his pull-rate of just 35.8% also ranks as a career low. In other words, he began using the middle of the field a lot more – perhaps that’s why his numbers vs. LHP became so much better – in lieu of simply selling out for pull power more often than not.

In 2023, for instance, Statcast ranked him in the 94% percentile for hard-hit%, his average exit velocity of 91.9 mph ranking in the 89th percentile. That came with a walk-rate ranked in just the 2nd percentile! By 2025, his average exit velocity had dipped to the 42nd percentile (89.4 mph) and his hard-hit rate fell to the 46th, but his launch-angle sweet spot rate spiked to the 85th percentile – and his walk rate jumped to the 76th!

In other words, the entire evolution of his swing that he detailed in the video above has already been re-evolved in an entire other iteration. What’s clear, though, is that this is an incredibly adaptive hitter at the plate who has found ways to get ahead of how he plans to be pitched, and he’s been better for it as he’s aged even though it’s hard to pencil him in for precisely one same thing over and over again.

The Skinny​

O’Hearn will turn 33 next summer, and that’s hardly a spring chicken. That’s also a couple of months younger than Schwarber, however, and Statcast still grades both his range and sprint speed as at least a little bit better average (even if his throwing arm has never been good). So, we’re talking a guy who could very conceivably get reps in LF, at 1B, and at DH while swinging from the left-side of the plate in 2026, something that would seemingly dovetail well with a) the Reds persistent desire for positional versatility and b) the presence of right-handed batters like Sal Stewart and Spencer Steer who can also rotate through those positions in various ways.

Both DRS and OAA tend to appreciate his work at 1B more than in the outfield corners, and that’s perhaps the only knock on his free agent candidacy here – not because that alone is a big problem, per se, it’s just that Spencer Steer’s grades are pretty much the exact same. In other words, it would be more ‘ideal’ if O’Hearn had positive grades in the OF and lesser at 1B, since those and Steer’s would dovetail perfectly. Alas!

MLB Trade Rumors ranked O’Hearn as the #30 overall free agent this winter, and predicted he’d land a 2-year, $26 million contract for his work so far. So as you crunch the numbers of fitting Schwarber fresh off 56 dongs onto the tightly-wound Cincinnati payroll, keep that in mind as an alternative for the inevitable presser where the Reds tell you how hard they tried to sign Kyle before he landed elsewhere.

Source: https://www.redreporter.com/free-agent-profile/49215/cincinnati-reds-free-agency-ryan-ohearn-rumors

 

[Cincinnati Reds]

Cincinnati Reds head to MLB Winter Meetings hungry for deals

Executives from all Major League Baseball franchises will begin to descend upon Orlando, Florida today for the annual Winter Meetings, with the next few days paramount in the advancement of all offseason transactions. Agents for available players will be on hand, deals will be hashed out into the wee hours of the morning, and by the time the meetings wrap each team will have a much better handle on their rosters for the coming season – or at least what it will take to get them where they want them.

The Contemporary Baseball Era Committee of the Hall of Fame will begin the fireworks at the event on Sunday evening by releasing the results of their vote, at which point we’ll find out if any of these eight former stars will be elected into the hallowed grounds in Cooperstown. Frankly it’s a bit embarrassing that it’s reached this point with many of the players on the list when you consider what other names have been elected over the years, but here we are.

Later in the week, we’ll have the results of the MLB Draft Lottery, though fortunately the Reds – who made the playoffs in 2025 – won’t be part of that group. We’ll also find out the winnter of the Ford C. Frick Award and the BBWAA Career Excellence Award during the week, before Wednesday wraps the proceedings with the Rule 5 Draft.

In the ‘down’ time surrounding those events, however, there will undoubtedly be a blockbuster signing, trade, or both.

Here’s a rundown of each team’s biggest need from MLB.com (per the beat writers for each club).

Here’s the latest buzz compiled at MLB.com. Hey, there’s even a mention of the Reds super really awesomely actually wanting Kyle Schwarber, which is fun (for now).

And as always, keep tabs on MLB Trade Rumors, who has their finger on the pulse of things like this as a clearinghouse better than anywhere else.

Can the Reds sign a slugger?

Can the Reds find a bullpen?

Will the Reds trade a starter?

STAY TUNED!

Source: https://www.redreporter.com/latest-news/49221/cincinnati-reds-winter-meetings-rumors-kyle-schwarber

 

[Cincinnati Reds]

Will Benson might still deserve a bigger role on the Cincinnati Reds

While all the focus and spotlights of this particular Cincinnati Reds offseason are pointed firmly at Middletown slugger Kyle Schwarber, it’s still a pertinent exercise to dig through the nuts and bolts of the rest of the roster in search of ways this team’s offense can find improvement in 2026.

That digging, for me, keeps leading back to Will Benson.

Yes, we’re talking about the same Will Benson – the guy who hit just .226/.273/.435 in 253 PA last year. The same guy who was a strong-side platoon option who almost never faced lefties (and struggled terribly against them when he did). The same guy who posted just an 88 OPS+ on the season and who will already turn 28 years of age during 2026.

Still, I can’t help but look at several different metrics that tracked Will’s work during the 2025 season and not begin to wonder if the new hitting philosophy and coaching from Chris Valaika & Co. that tweaked the life out of so many other Reds bats last year might have actually begun to pay off for Benson along the way. Keep in mind, of course, that this wasn’t the first time Valaika had worked with Benson, as the former was the hitting coach for the Cleveland Guardians during the 2022 season when Benson cracked the big leagues up north for the first time.

As a pure baseline, you’ll also recall just how electric Benson was during his 2023 mini-breakout season. He hit an astounding .275/.365/.498 in 329 PA (128 OPS+), numbers that ran up to .297/.389/.549 when isolated to only his work against RHP. Paired with his athleticism (19 steals) and ability to play competent defense all across the outfield, the former 1st round pick firmly looked the part of a key cog of an outfield rotation going forward, though when the inflated BABIP came back to earth – it was an unsustainable .391 overall in 2023 and .422 against RHP – his numbers cratered in 2024 (.187/.274/.376 in 388 PA).

Those flukishly high BABIP numbers are gone and will not return. The baseball gods simply do not allow for that to happen twice to the same player over the course of their career, nor should they. But what if I told you that the same Benson who swatted lasers all over the place in 2023 behind that crazy high BABIP actually hit the ball much harder more often in 2025…yet posted an almost comically low .255 BABIP?

Benson, per FanGraphs’ Statcast, posted a hard hit rate of 42.2% during the 2023 season, barreling balls at 10.3% of the time with an average exit velocity of 90.2 mph. Despite the relative competence of those, his actual average (.275) far outpaced his expected average (.230 xBA), his slugging (.498) far outpaced his expected slugging (.398 xSLG), and his wOBA (.369) was miles ahead of his expected wOBA (.321 wOBA).

His 2025 season, at least by his batted ball metrics, was even better than 2023.

He raised his average exit velocity all the way up to 92.4 mph, posted a max exit velocity nearly three and a half mph higher than his highest 2023 mark, and lifted his overall hard hit rate up to 53.8% – tied with Byron Buxton for 15th best in all of baseball among the 309 hitters who had at least 250 PA last year. That ranked him just higher than Corey Seager (53.6%), Matt Olson (53.2%) and even Ronald Acuña Jr. (52.5%), among a lot of very talented others.

Benson lifted his barrel rate up to 15.4% in the process, a number that ranked him 23rd on that list of 309 big leaguers in 2025. Acuña Jr. (15.7%) and the likes of Mike Trout and George Springer (15.8%) ranked just ahead of him, for the record. As a result, each of Benson’s expected stats – xBA, xSLG, and xwOBA – all ended up markedly higher than his actual stats during the 2025 season, with each of those beginning to look almost as rosy as the actual stats he put up during his BABIP-fueled 2023 season.

Actual 2023: .275 AVG, .498 SLG, .369 wOBA

Expected 2025: .264 xBA, .495 xSLG, .346 xwOBA

Along the way, Benson also pretty obviously tweaked his approach at the plate. He cut down his strikeout rate from the 31.3% it was in 2023 (and the bloated 39.7% it was during his terrible 2024), getting it to a much more manageable 26.5% in 2025. That came with a significant reduction in his walk rate – down to 6.3% from 12.2% during 2023, but that dovetailed with a decision to swing more often (his in-zone z-swing% jumped from 65.7% in 2023 all the way up to 74.8% last year). His overall swing % spiked from 42.7% in 2023 and 47.5% in 2024 all the way to 52.8% in 2025, all with a rise in the rate of pitches he saw in the strike zone spiking to 54.7% in 2025 from just 50.3% in 2023.

That’s a long-winded way of saying it seems he recognized he was being thrown more strikes than he once did (perhaps due to his reputation of being patient) and began attacking more pitches because of it. The batted-ball results changed significantly because of this, too, with his pull rate up to 43.2% in 2025 (from 35.7% in 2023) and his up-the-middle rate down to 33.7% (from a high of 44.9% in 2023).

Ball it all up, and that’s a hitter who pretty clearly looks like they realized they were getting enough strikes to attack, and began attacking. And when they did, they were trying to pull the ball, in doing so making better contact with the best part of the bat more than they’d ever done before. The end results weren’t there, no, but the overall concept began to take form while the short right field porch in Great American Ball Park began to look closer and closer by the swing.

That wasn’t lost on Valaika and manager Terry Francona, who’ve known Benson well since their Cleveland days. The Reds straight up cut Benson’s competition for playing time in Jake Fraley, turning over the role of ‘left-handed hitting outfielder next to TJ Friedl and Noelvi Marte’ to Benson almost full-time for the final two months of the 2025 playoff push, and Benson responded by hitting .276/.313/.552 over his final 32 games (64 PA), his BABIP in that time still just .273.

If the approach stays the same and the opportunities increase in 2026, there’s a lot suggesting that the Reds should expect significantly more actual production from Benson should they give him a good chunk of work against RHP in a corner outfield spot. To get that from a first-year arbitration guy making just $1.7 million (as they try to save funds everywhere they can to sign Schwarber) would be a boon, and perhaps enough to make you wonder if Spencer Steer – who’ll be making some $4.5 million – really needs regular time in LF if Schwarber (/fingers crossed) and Sal Stewart have 1B/DH taken care of. Finding a short-side platoon guy for Benson sure sounds like it could be even cheaper, after all.

Source: https://www.redreporter.com/stat-colored-glasses/49223/will-benson-cincinnati-reds-outlook-sleeper

 

[Cincinnati Reds]

Cincinnati’s ‘hometown’ plans for Kyle Schwarber failed spectacularly

It has been a hot minute, but you may recall the failed 2017 pursuit of Shohei Ohtani by the Cincinnati Reds and then GM Dick Williams.

It was public. There were presentations. When, in early December of that year, the Reds found out they hadn’t made the final cut for the superstar from Japan, Williams was frustrated. “We’ve put a lot of thought and effort into this project,” he told MLB.com, lamenting that it simply wasn’t enough given the other options Shohei had at his disposal.

It took another two seasons of flailing at the big league level, but the Reds eventally got around to diving into free agency like a big-kid club. They signed Nick Castellanos and Mike Moustakas to dueling $64 million contracts, and even splurged to bring in Shogo Akiyama and Wade Miley, too. Big-ish names, decent money (and a record for the club in free agency), yet the wins simply didn’t stack up enough during the COVID pandemic – and almost all of those deals ended up underwater in a blink.

To date, the Reds have yet to dip back into the depths of free agency, instead going through this iteration of their perpetual rebuild by compiling prospects via trade, drafting, and developing – a slow-play that’s been arduous as we enter the fourth legitimate year of its progression. That, though, changed a bit this winter with the presence of Middletown native Kyle Schwarber on the free agent market, and the Reds – despite trying to slow-play their own interest in him – let it be known in the court of public opinion that he was very much of interest.

Except, of course, that didn’t work out. Schwarber agreed to return to the Philadelphia Phillies on a 5-year, $150 million deal on Tuesday, and all the news in the wake of that announcement has put egg squarely in the face of the Castellini ownership group, Nick Krall, and the entire front office.

Per Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic, the Reds offer came in somewhere in the range of 5-years and $125 million, a far cry from what Philly went to in landing him. And while the lack of money may well be both the obvious scapegoat with this frugal ownership group, it’s this tidbit from Rosenthal that sent the egg face-flying:

Unlike the Orioles, the Reds are not expected to pursue other expensive free agents. Their offer to Schwarber, a native of Middletown, Ohio, about 35 miles north of Cincinnati, was tied to their belief that his addition would help drive ticket sales.

In other words, the Reds aren’t going to pivot from Schwarber to Pete Alonso or Alex Bregman or Cody Bellinger at the top end of the market for ‘hitters who can actually hit.’ Instead, they simply chased Schwarber because he was the ‘hometown’ guy – the one hometown guy on the market – and still managed to not get him signed.

The team drilled down its entire offseason philosophy into sign the guy from around here because it will help us make more money and then completely failed to even make that a reality. This wasn’t them prioritizing which bats out there could help them most for their buck and then getting the best one they could, this was them highlighting one guy (and one guy only) simply because they thought it gave them a chance at more enrichment and still being unable to pull off the deal.

It makes a lot more sense now that the front office and Terry Francona were downplaying their pursuit of Schwarber, as I wouldn’t want those motives (and that lackluster sales pitch) getting out to the public, either. This is a far cry from Williams’ pitch to Ohtani (and the fans) of how freaking cool would this be and, instead, is simply a stark reminder that the only time the Reds will even try to spend money it a) won’t be enough anyway and b) will only come with enough caveats to sink the Titanic.

Even if this was an attempt in appeasing local fans with the message of well, we tried, it now looks so half-hearted that it’s hard to give them credit for it, even if they long ago wrote off their chances and have been hard at work at cheap, fringe-y deals elsewhere. Though given what C. Trent Rosecrans of The Athletic relays about their activities during the most recent holiday week, I’m not even sure I can grant them that kind of recognition.

The Reds met with Kyle Schwarber and his wife on the Monday before Thanksgiving, Nick Krall said. Schwarber was met by Bob Castellini, Terry Francona and hitting coach Chris Valaika, along with several front-office members

— C Trent Rosecrans (@ctrent.bsky.social) 2025-12-09T20:29:31.592Z

The Reds went to Schwarber with the ‘c’mon man, help us out’ approach, and it failed spectacularly. That’s simply who they are when it comes to trying to act like a serious franchise anymore.

Source: https://www.redreporter.com/free-agent-profile/49236/kyle-schwarber-cincinnati-reds-offer-castellini

 

[Cincinnati Reds]

Reds exploring trades for Ketel Marte, Brandon Lowe per reports

After striking out in somewhat embarrassing fashion yesterday in their pursuit of slugger Kyle Schwaber, who signed with the Philadelphia Phillies for 5-years and $150 million, it appears the Cincinnati Reds haven’t completely given up their attempt at improving their sub-par offense.

According to Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic, the Reds haven’t jumped back into the free agent frenzy in search of said upgrade, they’ve instead started kicking tires on two big-ish names on the trade market. Chief among them is Arizona Diamondbacks star Ketel Marte, though the Reds reportedly have some interest in Tampa Bay Rays 2B Brandon Lowe, too.

Let’s establish some broad baselines here. Both Lowe (31) and Marte (32) have been pretty elite hitters over the course of their careers, with Lowe (123 OPS+) actually owning a slightly better league-adusted career mark than Marte (121 OPS+). Both are primarily 2Bs by trade and both hit from the left-side of the plate (with Marte a switch-hitter), though each has reasonable experience playing in the outfield and at other spots on the dirt. In theory, the Reds would be getting one of these guys and playing them at 2B a lot, but that’s not necessarily the only spot they might play – and it’s not a death knell for Matt McLain’s career there on the surface.

Narrow the focus a bit, though, and Marte and Lowe are in wildly different leagues.

While Lowe’s league-adjusted career marks best Marte’s, lately Marte has been in superstar territory while Lowe has simply been good. Dating back to the start of the 2022 season, Lowe has hit .241/.314/.453 (114 OPS+) in 1680 PA, being valued at 7.2 bWAR/7.4 fWAR as his defensive marks have been substandard, too. That’s a .336 wOBA and 115 wRC+ player who’s also set to earn about $11.5 million in his final year of team control before free agency.

Marte, meanwhile, has hit a brilliant .279/.360/.498 (134 OPS+) in 2721 PA since the start of the 2021 season, in which time he’s been worth 19.4 bWAR/19.4 fWAR with defensive metrics that have actually been improving as he’s aged. He’s also very much on the front-end of a major contract extension that will pay him up to $102.5 million through 2031, should he pick up his 2031 player option, and that’s hardly an overpay for him given his current level of excellence.

So while these two players in whom the Reds have interest share some similarities, they are valued in totally different manners at the moment.

If you’re going for Marte, you’re going for your new best hitter. You can make the case that Elly De La Cruz may well surpass him as early as 2026 (especially if he stays healthy), but that’s a wash for the current term. If you trade what it would take to get Marte, you’re acquiring him to be your best hitter. Though they go about their business in different ways, that’s a move that both on the bottom line and the expectation line matches their pursuit of Schwarber in ambition.

If you’re going for Lowe, you’re going for a pretty good upgrade to the offense, but with a guy who you are still going to platoon with a right-handed hitter. You’re getting a matchup-based guy for one season who, in theory, could mash in the middle of the order against RHP, but overlaps in a number of ways with what you’ve got in Gavin Lux already (with additional power, of course). An incremental move – and a good one, at the right prospect cost – but hardly a move that really pushes the club into another echelon.

This is a wide-net reveal of Cincinnati’s ambitions this winter, with an acknowledgement that they’re a) still trying to get better but b) are wary and realistic about what it will cost to do so at multiple levels.

It’s also worth pointing out, I guess, that Marte’s very own Arizona club once took Matt McLain with a 1st round pick back in the day, even though he spurned their offer to attend UCLA. The Reds then took him with a 1st round pick after his college days and he signed, but I do wonder if he’s got some favor embedded somewhere in their scouting department in the event the Reds do try to make a blockbuster deal for Marte.

Source: https://www.redreporter.com/hotstove/49241/cincinnati-reds-ketel-marte-trade-rumors-arizona

 

[Cincinnati Reds]

Kyle Schwarber to sign 5-year, $150 million deal with Philadelphia Phillies

The flirtation between the Cincinnati Reds and free agent slugger Kyle Schwarber appears to have been just that – a flirtation.

News broke on Tuesday morning that Schwarber will be re-signing with the Philadelphia Phillies for a reported $150 million over five years, with Mark Feinsand of MLB.com doing the reporting. It’s a crushing blow to the Reds as they’ll watch the Middletown, Ohio slugger eschew coming home to anchor their burgeoning lineup and instead head back to the club where he’s had so much success in recent seasons.

MLB.com’s Mark Sheldon helped relay the news on Bluesky.

Kyle Schwarber won’t be playing for his hometown Reds, it appears.

— Mark Sheldon (@msheldon.bsky.social) 2025-12-09T16:22:53.722Z

The Reds now get to pivot into trying to add thump to a thumpless lineup in other ways, something that they’ll surely learn over and over again simply requires money to be invested in said thumping.

It won’t be fellow free agent Pete Alonso. It won’t be by simply promoting someone else from their farm system. It sure as heck won’t be from Gavin Lux, who they’ll nominally turn to as ‘DH vs. RHP’ again in 2026 in lieu of actually having a slugger like Schwarber around.

Signing Schwarber was always going to be a longshot with this ownership group, but the hype got just hot enough to where this ultimately feels like a horrible letdown despite the odds. Good luck finding a way to patch over that with some goodwill this winter, Nick Krall.

Source: https://www.redreporter.com/latest-news/49231/kyle-schwarber-philadelphia-phillies-cincinnati-rumors

 

[Cincinnati Reds]

Can the Cincinnati Reds and Baltimore Orioles line up a square deal?

The Baltimore Orioles have already impacted the offseason of the Cincinnati Reds in immeasurable ways. As the bidding became fierce over Kyle Schwarber, rumor has it the Orioles were the club who pushed the bidding all the way to $150 million, effectively pricing out the Reds and leaving only the Philadelphia Phillies – to whom Schwarber returned – left to flex enough financial might to equal the bidding.

Baltimore clearly was in pursuit of a high-profile slugger to help anchor their burgeoning lineup, and yesterday found just that in the form of Pete Alonso, who agreed to a 5-year, $155 million deal eerily similar to the one Schwarber signed one day prior. That’s all to help bolster a ball club not too far removed from a 101 win season (2023) and a playoff appearance in 2024…though also a club that slipped to just 75 wins in a last-place finish last season.

It’s yet another devastating bat in a lineup that already features the likes of Gunnar Henderson, Taylor Ward, Tyler O’Neill, Jackson Holliday, Adley Rutschman, Jordan Westburg, and Colton Cowser. That’s before you even get to stud prospect Samuel Basallo and former 1st round picks Dylan Beavers and Heston Kjerstad.

What Alonso’s addition doesn’t do, however, is address the team’s dearth of starting pitching. Last year, the club ranked 24th overall in ERA by their collective starters (4.65), while ranking 25th in both xERA and FIP. They’ve since dealt away former top pitching prospect Grayson Rodriguez (to acquire Ward from the Angels), while each of Kyle Bradish (Tommy John), Dean Kremer (forearm), Tyler Wells (UCL internal brace), and Cade Povich (hip) sit high on their depth chart despite injuries sidelining them all for extended periods in 2025.

Adding Alonso also doesn’t somehow ‘unlock’ the roster the O’s already have in place. In Basallo and Rutschman, the club has two potential star catchers who also carry bats worth having in the lineup more than just every other day, meaning DH reps probably need to be reserved for those two. The same could be said for O’Neill, whose own injury history means he’s probably better suited getting days off out of the OF (but still in the lineup), and Baltimore’s only a year removed from doling out nearly $50 million to make him a key part of their lineup.

So, this is a Baltimore club that a) is clearly very ambitious, b) still needs SP something fierce after already throwing a ton of money elsewhere, and c) has created a logjam in their lineup – and I haven’t even mentioned primary 1B options from 2025 in Coby Mayo and Ryan Mountcastle.

On paper, at least, it sure would appear the Cincinnati Reds match up well with Baltimore for a potential deal.

Cincinnati boasts SP options that are the envy of most of baseball, from Hunter Greene and All-Star Andrew Abbott to the likes of Nick Lodolo, Brady Singer, Chase Burns, Rhett Lowder, and Brandon Williamson, and that’s without even getting to prospect Chase Petty (who is still just 22 years old). It’s a bunch that runs the gamut from Singer (set to earn over $11 million in his final year of control before free agency), to Lowder/Burns (pre-arb former top prospects controlled through 2030 and 2031, respectively), to Greene (a bone fide ace locked up to a team friendly deal through 2029), with each boasting both draft, prospect, and big league performance pedigrees.

That’s a similar story for much of Baltimore’s glut, too. Mayo, for instance, comes with team control through 2031 with the rep of being a consensus Top 30 overall prospect at 24, though he’s struggled so far in his limited work in the bigs (79 OPS+ in 340 PA across 2024-2025). Mountcastle, meanwhile, has a 33-dinger season under his belt (back in 2021) and just a lone season of control before free agency, but he’s seen his performance dip year after year since that breakout – and he hit just .250/.286/.367 (83 OPS+) with 7 dingers last year. Then there’s Kjerstad, who fell completely apart last year while fighting a still-undisclosed medical issue, yet is a former 1st round pick and top prospect despite being jumped on the depth chart by the likes of Cowser and Beavers.

Much like how the Reds have built their own offense, there’s a ton of overlap with what Baltimore has at the moment, meaning they’ve got the ability to deal just about any of their corps in the right deal for the right pitcher. All of that, of course, comes into play because Pete Alonso is now going to be in the lineup close to 160 times as either the 1B or the DH, and that’s the most certain thing the club has going for it right now.

The Reds don’t have that anchor, with Baltimore’s fuel on the Schwarber bidding fire pushing them into reaction mode. The Reds do have pitching they can deal, though, and it’s now a pretty obvious wonder whether Baltimore has baked up precisely the right scenario for a deal between the two, a need-for-need for two clubs hungry for 2026 playoff action that seems a little too hard to ignore.

Source: https://www.redreporter.com/hotstov...rioles-cincinnati-reds-trade-rumors-coby-mayo

 

[Cincinnati Reds]

Reds trade interest in Astros CF Jake Meyers raises questions

Charlie Goldsmith, former Enquirer reporter (and current purveyor of Charlie’s Chalkboard on Substack), caught up with Cincinnati Reds manager Terry Francona at MLB’s Winter Meetings in Orlando, picking the future Hall of Famer’s mind on a number of topics ranging from Kyle Schwarber to managing the overall roster of the club through the grind of a full season.

While the most fun nuggets of that conversation revolve around the idea that the Reds might have a chance to land the slugging Schwarber, there are more tangible notes about the players already on-roster and what the Reds can do to get the most out of them going forward. Some of that, at least in Francona’s mind, needs to come through getting his most key players a few more days off over the course of the year, with shortstop Elly De La Cruz and CF TJ Friedl chief among them.

Francona praised Friedl for playing as much as he did last season, making 148 starts in center field. There were times where the Reds simply didn’t have a backup center fielder on the roster.

The Reds need more consistent center field depth in 2026. That could come with a more consistent year from Will Benson, who hasn’t been an impact defender in center but can man the spot. It also could come from an addition.

Francona has also asked Noelvi Marte to shag fly balls in center field. Even if Marte doesn’t play there, it’s good to work on chasing fly balls down from both sides.

Finding depth in CF to allow for Friedl to get a minute here and there seems like something the Reds are keenly interested in discovering this winter, and that brings us to Houston Astros CF Jake Meyers. He’s firmly on the trade block this winter as the Astros try to revamp their own roster, and Brian McTaggart of MLB.com relayed yesterday that the Reds are one of the clubs who has expressed interest.

First, let’s lay out the Meyers basics.

He’s a plus runner who’s even elite at times. He ranked in the 89th percentile in sprint speed in 2024 before dropping to just the 71st in 2025, though a calf injury sidelined him for a pair of months and clearly impacted that a bit. He’s also a tremendously rangy defender, ranking in the 95th percentile in Range (OAA) in 2025 and 97th percentile the year before. He’s fresh off a 2025 season in which he posted a career-best 103 OPS+, and that paired with his defense saw him valued at 2.4 bWAR/2.3 fWAR.

He’s 29 and will turn 30 in June, and he’s got two more years of team control. He’s estimated to take down a $3.5 million salary in 2026 via arbitration.

If the Reds were to acquire Meyers and have him replicate his 2025 season, he’d be worth every penny, and more. The questions, though, are both whether that’s a realistic expectation of him at this point as well as what the Reds would choose to do with Friedl (and on down the dominos) if Meyers were acquired.

For a team on a budget like the Reds, you don’t simply trade valuable pieces off the farm for a guy only to pay him $3.5 million and then not be a regular. If you go get Meyers as the Reds, you put him in CF more often than not. That doesn’t mean every single inning of every single game, obviously – Meyers only logged 381 PA in 104 G last year and has only topped that number of PA in a season once in five years in the bigs. So, you’d think TJ Friedl would still be very much a ‘part’ of the CF mix, but given that Meyers likely is the superior defender of the two at this juncture of their careers, that would probably slide TJ over to LF a lot, too.

That begs further questions. Is bringing in Meyers at the cost (both in prospects and salary) to bolster the CF depth chart worth it? Is TJ Friedl, himself a plus offensive player in CF who can still capably man it defensively when not ground to a pulp, a good enough offensive player to warrant playing a corner OF spot more often than not? Is a Meyers CF, Friedl LF outfield pairing really a better use of resources than simply keeping TJ in CF, signing a bigger bat for LF, and, say, letting Blake Dunn simply roll around the corner of the roster as CF depth?

That likely comes down to your expectations of Meyers, who was never close to as good offensively in his first four years in the bigs as he was in 2025.

In 1177 PA across 2021-2024, he hit just .228/.292/.371 (85 OPS+), numbers that seem much more accurate given his lower-level minors performance before reaching the AAA launching pads of the Pacific Coast League. Across that 2021-2024 sample, he posted a combined .290 BABIP despite his elite speed, with a .283 mark in 341 PA in 2023 and .263 mark in 513 PA in 2024 (his biggest single-season sample size to date). In his ‘breakout’ 2025, though, he put up an outlier .353 BABIP – the 9th highest among the 242 MLB players with at least 350 PA last year – yet still only slugged .373 (188th).

That’s wet-noodle territory. That’s not a far cry from the guy whose 27.9% hard-hit rate in 2023 ranked in the bottom 5%, per Statcast and who still ranked in just the 18th percentile in barrel rate and 22nd in average exit velocity in his best season in 2025.

I’d have more optimism for Meyers if he weren’t already turning 30 during the 2026 season. That calf issue and the subsequent loss in range is concerning, too, in the context that we saw almost exactly the same thing happen to Friedl with his own soft-tissue (hamstring) problems just a year ago – also when he was creeping up on age 30. There’s plenty of reasoning as to why having Meyers on the Reds roster in 2026 would make them a better overall club, but it’s the opportunity cost that’s giving me troubles here – he’s not the kind of player you acquire for this price in this way that simply adds last-man-on-roster depth. Rather, this would be – in the same vein as the Gavin Lux acquisition last year – a move that prevents a further, better move from actually going down, and that concerns me to no end.

As a free agent for $3.5 million to be the 4th outfielder on a club willing to spend $140-150 million? Sure, give me Jake Meyers all day long. But if you’ve got to outbid other clubs to acquire him via trade, plan on slotting him as the regular CF, and will only backfill LF with in-house options instead of bringing in a LF bat? Count me out.

Source: https://www.redreporter.com/cincinn...eds-trade-interest-jake-meyers-houston-astros

 

[Cincinnati Reds]

MLB Roundup: Jorge Polanco to Mets, Luis Robert in demand

There’s a presumption that the Cincinnati Reds are intent upon improving their offensive performance heading into the 2026 season. After all, they made a very public pursuit of Kyle Schwarber before the Ohio native signed with the Philadelphia Phillies, and it’s kind of difficult to backtrack from acknowledging how much of an impact he’d have made only to, y’know, not add anyone in his stead.

They’ve been linked (at least somewhat) to the likes of Ketel Marte and Brandon Lowe on the trade market, both of whom have their perks. That said, there’s been a build of momentum on both the free agent and trade markets for hitters who would, in theory, be reasonable fits for this Cincinnati roster, and it’s worth tracking those a) to see if the Reds were at all involved and b) to see just how their pool of choices is dwindling as they wait.

Schwarber signed with Philly, and Pete Alonso followed him a day later by leaving the Mets to sign with the Baltimore Orioles (who now seem primed to deal from their offensive depth).

Earlier on in the offseason, the Texas Rangers and New York Mets made a financial blockbuster by swapping Brandon Nimmo for Marcus Semien, as the Mets decision to totally overhaul their underperforming roster of stars got going. They’ve moved on from Nimmo, Alonso, and recently Edwin Diaz (who signed with the Dodgers) while adding Semien and Jorge Polanco, who inked this week for a pair of years and $40 million total.

Polanco, in particular, is an interesting pickup for the Mets. There’s talk he’ll get some time at 1B after Alonso moved on to Baltimore, even though Polanco has never played an inning at 1B in his big league career. There’s even the potential he gets the bulk of his time at DH while Jeff McNeil gets run at 1B, moves that (when paired with the addition of Semien) seemingly upgrade the heck out of the team’s overall infield defense going forward.

The Mets don’t seen like they are done, either. They’ve got more money than god and just moved on from a lot of otherwise expensive players, and they’re one of several teams who are in on Chicago White Sox outfielder Luis Robert on the trade front, per Francys Romero of Beisbol FR. Joining them are the likes of the San Diego Padres (who are always in the big-trade waters) and Pittsburgh Pirates (who are not, but are theoretically trying to build around Paul Skenes whilst they can). Roberts oozes talent and finished well in 2025, but several down (and injured) years before that have thrust him into quite the conundrum of a market, even though it’s one the Cincinnati Reds should be involved in regardless.

The Seattle Mariners, now sans Polanco, are interested in St. Louis Cardinals infielder Brendan Donovan, as are the San Francisco Giants (who seemingly haven’t had a 2B who could hit since now Hall of Famer Jeff Kent). That’s per Katie Woo of The Athletic, and it’s hard not to notice that Donovan would be a pretty ideal pickup for the Reds given what Nick Krall and Co. have been prioritizing of late – high contact, low K, ‘line drive power that might play up in GABP,’ and positional versatility. Anyway, I don’t think the Cardinals will be dealing him within the division.

Speaking of the division, the Milwaukee Brewers wrapped up an interesting deal to end this week by dealing outfielder Isaac Collins and righty Nick Mears to the Kansas City Royals for lefty Angel Zerpa. The Royals have been desperate to add offense to their outfield mix and do so, in theory, by adding Collins, who is fresh off finishing 4th in the NL Rookie of the Year voting. Of course, he’s also 28 years old, somewhat positionless, and fresh off a .326 BABIP despite a soft contact approach and middling speed, so maybe this is just another example of the Brewers being incredibly shrewd with their decisions.

Finally, we turn back to the Padres. They’re reportedly shopping veteran starter Nick Pivetta (and his backloaded contract) along with the likes of Ramon Laureano, Mason Miller, and a handful of others. That’s per a cadre of reporters from The Athletic, who note that while they’re not going to trade Fernando Tatis, Jr., even Jake Cronenworth could be on the block as the club looks to trim back some of its payroll outlay. While neither is Schwarber (or even in the same stratosphere), adding the likes of Cronenworth and Laureano would significantly upgrade what the Reds have going for them offensively.

Source: https://www.redreporter.com/hotstove/49247/mlb-roundup-rumors-free-agents-luis-robert-trade

 

[Cincinnati Reds]

It’s a make-or-break 2026 for these three Cincinnati Reds

There’s a presumption that this offseason is far from finished for the Cincinnati Reds. Though they were rendered second fiddle (at best) in their pusuit of slugger Kyle Schwarber and have so far not managed to land any other impact bats via trade, their seemingly genuine efforts to acquire some legitimate bats shows they know just how ugly it was to watch what we all watched from the offense in 2025.

The bullpen needs plenty of work, too, even after the club managed to coax Emilio Pagan into re-signing earlier in December. And with a budget and payroll that’s already mostly tapped out, that means Nick Krall and the front office are going to have to get creative with how they seek these improvements, a scenario that almost always ends up with one or two (or three) final roster spots being doled out to players who, on paper, are more need to prove it guys than are established and known quantities.

Those guys are the gambles, if you will. The bets on upside an hope, talent and ceiling, players who you’ve seen glimpses of in recent seasons that get one more chance to show that this time, this year, they’re at a point in their careers where they can take the next step.

And if they don’t this time? Well, the chances were certainly there.

Here are three particular Cincinnati Reds who will be fighting to get that one last chance to shine in 2025, assuming they even get that chance.

Rece Hinds (25) – OF​

Hinds, the club’s 2nd round pick back in 2019, only turned 25 in September of 2025, and is a known quantity because of the completely absurd first 6 games of his big league career turned in back in July of 2024.

He went 11 for 22 with 3 doubles, a triple, 5 dingers, 11 RBI, and a pair of steals in those 6 games, earned NL Player of the Week honors, and showed the world just how electric he can be when his power, speed, and eye at the plate are all tuned in perfectly. Of course, the crash was immediate after that week, and he even slumped to a miserable .658 OPS in his time with AAA Louisville in 2024, never truly turning the page back after his demotion.

He struck out 160 times in just 422 PA with the Bats in 2024. In 2025, though, he cut that down to just 113 in 436 PA, and with the stark cut down in K-rate came with a power surge (.563 slugging, 26 doubles, 24 homers). He swiped 21 bags – a single-season career best for him – and even turned in 51 starts as a CF with AAA Louisville, the first such time he’s played the position. He even turned on RHP with incredible aplomb (.914 OPS, 22 of his 26 overall dingers across all levels), showing that he may not just be a guy primed to be the short-side of a platoon going forward.

Hinds has often had up and down swings to his career, great one year and subpar the next, and the hope is that the trend there doesn’t continue and that his 2025 was him maturing into the kind of elite power hitter he truly could be. Given his arm, range, and power potential, that’s a pretty ideal 4th/5th outfielder if he’s truly turned that corner, the only question now being whether riding bench more often than not to begin 2026 is truly what’s best for him and the Reds.

He’s gone one option remaining, however, giving the Reds a little bit more time to evaluate him.

Christian Encarnacion-Strand (26) – 1B/3B/DH​

If you aren’t the kind of person who keeps intricate track of just how long the Cincinnati Reds have been in their perpetual rebuild, well, walking back through the highs and lows of the CES era will give you a refresher.

CES was acquired alongside Spencer Steer and Steve Hajjar in the deal that sent Tyler Mahle to the Minnesota Twins in August of 2022. Steer actually made his big league debut for the Reds shortly after said trade, and 2026 will now mark his 5th season with the club. Fifth!

CES didn’t debut until later in 2023, but when he did, he did so with the kind of power that made folks drool, hitting .270/.328/.477 with 13 homers in just 63 games in the very same season that Joey Votto played his final games for the Reds. It sure seemed as if the heir apparent was already around, and that’s how the club approached 2024.

Then came the hairline fracture in his wrist, the misdiagnosis (or whatever lack of oversight there was that prolonged the problem), and the beginning of long-layoffs and recovery time doing everything it could to sap him of regular playing time. His big league numbers tanked in limited action, and his numbers at AAA have yet to return to the heights they found during his 2023 breakout.

Now, he’s 26. His skillset on the roster – iffy defense limited pretty much to 1B, high Ks, big power – are pretty much exactly what the Reds sought in Schwarber, meaning that’s the expectation gap between the two. And as ‘bench bats with pop who hit right-handed’ go, well, I think I laid out the case for Hinds to get that honor before CES at this point already.

Lyon Richardson (26 in January) – RHP​

It’s a barrage of former 2nd round picks, as Richardson represents Cincinnati’s pick from Round 2 back in 2018. Since then, he’s gone from flamethrower to a guy who lost serious velocity, a guy who’s overcome Tommy John surgery and a move to the bullpen and, at times, looked pretty electric in doing so.

He was humming along like a future cog of the Reds bullpen in 2025, firing 24.1 IP of 1.85 ERA ball with a 20/8 K/BB in his first 20 G. He’d yielded just a lone homer, was commanding the zone, and even exuding the kind of confidence on the mound you need to have as a reliever climbing the leverage chart. Things hit the skids beginning in his very next appearance, however, and from that point forward he allowed 17 runs (14 earned) in his final 13.1 IP with an ugly 10/13 K/BB in that span.

His stuff can be pure filth, a well-balanced combination of 96 mph heater, 95 mph sinker, and a change that’s almost 10 full mph slower than his four-seamer on average. He’s flirted with a slider before – though he mostly abandoned it in 2025 – and clearly has the chops to continue to work it into his approach.

The Reds have clear voids in their bullpen after the departures of Scott Barlow, Brent Suter, and Ian Gibaut. If Richardson can show even a glimpse of consistency with that kind of stuff, he could very well be a central piece of the 2026 ‘pen (and of it going forward), doing so at a still league-minimum rate for a team that’s on a shoestring budget. He’s out of options, too, meaning that the Reds won’t have the ability to simply ship him back to Louisville to figure things out in 2026 – he’s going to have to simply harness it from the start this time around.

Source: https://www.redreporter.com/peer-into-the-future/49250/cincinnati-reds-encarnacion-strand-rece-hinds

 

[Cincinnati Reds]

Lou Piniella, trio of former stars to be inducted into Cincinnati Reds Hall of Fame

The Cincinnati Reds announced their 2026 Hall of Fame class on Tuesday, and it’s a doozy. Headlining it will be former manager Lou Piniella – he of the 1990 World Series Reds – as well as the likes of Brandon Phillips, Aaron Harang, and the perenially overlooked Reggie Sanders (who should have been in years ago).

The Reds made the announcement on Twitter.

Introducing your Reds Hall of Fame Class of 2026

Aaron Harang
Brandon Phillips
Lou Piniella
Reggie Sanders pic.twitter.com/XoECtIzcSi

— Cincinnati Reds (@Reds) December 16, 2025

Harang and BP were the players selected off the modern ballot, while both Lou and Reggie will go in via the veterans committee.

Harang emerged in the mid-aughts for a Reds franchise that had been the bane of pitching existence for a baseball generation at that point. Acquired from Oakland in the deal that sent Jose Guillen the other way, Harang put the pedal down in 2005 and kept it there for a three-year run that saw him post a trio of 200+ IP seasons and 15.7 total bWAR. In 2006 he became the first pitcher in National League history to lead the league in both wins and strikeouts and not win the Cy Young Award – and he didn’t even get a single vote! The next year he was arguably better (and more regarded) and finished 4th in NL CYA voting.

Phillips, of course, was plucked from Cleveland after flaming out as a top prospect and immediately became one of the most electric two-way players in the sport. Across 11 years with the Reds, he was valued at 28.6 bWAR and won four Gold Glove Awards, a Silver Slugger, made three All-Star teams, posted a 30/30 season, and even caught Jonathan Villar stealing with his buttcheeks.

Sweet Lou needs no introduction. The 1969 American League Rookie of the Year played 18 years in the game before embarking upon a managerial career that deserves recognition in Cooperstown. He ranks 17th overall with 1835 career victories, and the 1990 World Series he won with the Nasty Boys remains the highlight of his career overall.

Sanders was emblematic of the power/speed combo the Reds put together in their post-1990 run, and had the strike not sapped the 1994 season of its playoffs he may well have a World Series title to celebrate on his plaque, too. His 1995 season was positively epic (even though Barry Larkin actually winning the MVP that year has always overshadowed it), as he hit .306/.397/.579 (155 OPS+) with 28 homers, 36 steals, his lone All-Star appearance, and a 6th place finish in MVP voting. He posted 21.5 bWAR across his 8 seasons in Cincinnati before plying his trade across the NL for years later, and he remains one of just eight (8!) players ever in the 300 homers, 300 steals club.

Congrats to the newest members of the Reds Hall of Fame!

Source: https://www.redreporter.com/events/...s-reggie-sanders-cincinnati-reds-hall-of-fame

 

[Cincinnati Reds]

Cincinnati Reds, Statcast anathemas

The eye-test through the 2025 season revealed to anyone who paid attention that the Cincinnati Reds simply weren’t the slugging Reds of yore. The roster assembled by the front office had been deliberately put together to hit ‘line drives,’ a club designed to, in theory, produce more contact gap to gap even at the very purposeful expense of over-the-fence power, and the results were predictable.

Only two clubs had a team-leader in dingers with fewer than that of the Reds. Elly De La Cruz, said team leader on the Reds with 22 last year, hit just one (1) homer during a particularly odd 74 (!) game stretch during the middle of said season, and he slugged just .373 from June 24th through the end of the regular season – a stretch of some 83 games. That’s right, the team’s preeminent power hitter went over half a season with an almost complete power outage, yet still managed to hit more homers over the course of the regular season than anyone else.

Elly struggled through a leg injury during most of that span, something we were let in on only after the season ended. This is also not meant to rag on Elly – he’s one of the few bats on the club who, when healthy, actually has a chance to repeatedly knock the snot out of the ball. Rather, this is an article to highlight a corner of a leaderboard not everyone stumbles across, and to point out just how many Cincinnati Reds occupy it.

A quick trip over to the Statcast tab on FanGraphs is an excellent place to begin to understand just how light-hitting the 2025 Reds were. It’s also a place you shouldn’t view as a Reds fan until you’ve found a way to sit down.

Let’s start with Expected Slugging Percentage (xSLG), a metric ‘formulated using exit velocity, launch angle and, on certain types of batted balls, Sprint Speed’ according to MLB.com’s glossary. It effectively tracks what kind of slugger you should be expected to be based off how hard you hit balls and whether you hit them in a fashion that produces grounders, line drives, or fly balls. Well-hit fly balls go for homers, after all.

Among the 277 MLB players who logged at least 300 PA last year, you’ll find old friend Santiago Espinal ranking 2nd to last with a .285 xSLG (only Atlanta’s Nick Allen, at .263, was worse). You may recall Espinal hit in the #2 spot in the batting order more than in any other spot last year, too. You’ll also find everyday leadoff man TJ Friedl (.315) ranked 10th worst on this list, as well as Gavin Lux – who ‘played’ DH more than any other position and also got 21 starts batting in the #2 spot – checking in at 17th worst. That’s right, the Reds rolled out guys ranked among the 17th worst expected sluggers in the game atop their order more than any other club in baseball last year, with Friedl at leadoff in 150 games last year and Espinal/Lux batting 2nd to start a combined 51 games.

To manager Terry Francona’s credit (credit?), it wasn’t as if he had a ton of inverse options. Each of Ke’Bryan Hayes (30th worst), Jose Trevino (38th), and Matt McLain (39th) all ranked among the bottom 40, and McLain got an additional 68 starts batting 2nd. Yikes!

Looking at the overall team metrics doesn’t exactly make you walk away feeling better. Take, for instance, the team rankings in EV90 – or 90th percentile exit velocity. Cincinnati’s team mark of 103.7 mph may make you say dang, a hundred and three miles an hour is pretty fast! And, it is…just not in the context of the rest of Major League Baseball hitters, as that mark tied with the Cleveland Guardians for dead last among all 30 clubs. The New York Yankees, unsurprisingly, ranked tops at 106.3 mph.

The Reds ranked 28th among the 30 clubs in both total number of barrels and barrel rate (7.2%), and also ranked 28th in hard-hit % (38.2%, ahead of only San Diego and Cleveland). Their .368 xSLG ranked 29th, better than only Cleveland, while their expected weighted on-base average (wOBA) of .299 was better than only the lowly Colorado Rockies (.293) and, again, Cleveland.

If we circle back to Elly to end this quick dive, well, it’s to point out just how much of a dichotomy his particular Statcast metrics show. He ranked tops on the team (and 10th in all baseball) in maxEV (maximum exit velocity) with a ball he hit 117.4 mph. He lapped the rest of the team in EV90 and average exit velocity, too, his barrel rate (10.2%) better than all other Reds with at least 300 PA save for Tyler Stephenson and Austin Hays. What stands out with Elly on the other end of the spectrum, though, is his minuscule 7.6 degree launch angle, which is by far the lowest among the 10 Reds who had 300+ PA. Gavin Lux (9.6) is the only Red even sort of close, with Spencer Steer’s 18.8 the most fly-ball of the bunch.

That’s right, the only Red who so much as hit the ball at all league-average or better in terms of contact is also the one who pounded it into the dirt more than any other on the club.

It’s an alarming set of data given the heights to which this club aspires heading into the 2026 season. It’s no surprise to see Kyle Schwarber, whom they coveted so, ranking 3rd overall in barrel rate (20.8%), 20th in launch angle (20.0), 12th in max exit velocity (117.2 mph), 8th in EV(0 (109.8 mph), and 2nd in hard-hit % (59.6%). That’s the kind of hitter who could begin to drag the team’s overall marks back to the middle of the pack, something that simply hoping everybody just gets a little better won’t do.

Source: https://www.redreporter.com/stat-co...ti-reds-statcast-leaderboards-elly-de-la-cruz

 

[Cincinnati Reds]

Cincinnati Reds add lefty Caleb Ferguson to bullpen mix

The Cincinnati Reds further bolstered their bullpen on Tuesday afternoon by agreeing to a one-year major league contract with lefty Caleb Ferguson. As of the time of publishing, the details of the deal were not yet disclosed, and the deal itself is still pending a physical.

Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic was first to relay the news.

Free-agent left-handed reliever Caleb Ferguson in agreement with Reds, pending physical, source tells @TheAthletic.

— Ken Rosenthal (@Ken_Rosenthal) December 16, 2025

Ferguson excelled for both the Pittsburgh Pirates and Seattle Mariners in 2025, combining for a 3.58 ERA (3.26 FIP) across 65.1 IP. His one-time elite strikeout rate (career mark of 10.8 per 9 IP entering 2025) plummetted to just 7.03 last year, though that coincided directly with a change of approach on the bump altogether. His hard-hit rate crashed down to just 20.9%, per FanGraphs, after hovering between 27.9% and 41.0% in previous years, and his 84.8 mph average exit velocity ranked in the 99th percentile according to Statcast.

That’s all come with a fundamental change in his pitch arsenal, too. Back in 2020 he threw his four-seam fastball as much as 79.3% of the time, but that had dipped to just 31.6% in 2025 as he began to heavily mix in each of his cutter, sinker, and curveball, too. The sinker in particular (23.2% usage after not being in his arsenal at all prior to 2024) has helped evolve his entire approach, and it’s likely no coincidence that he’s increased that pitch’s usage while inducing a ton of weak contact in lieu of trying to simply throw it by people.

Ferguson, who’ll turn 30 in July, is also – you guessed it – an Ohio native, having been drafted back in 2014 by the Los Angeles Dodgers out of West Jefferson High School. He’ll help fill the void left by Brent Suter, Taylor Rogers, Reiver Sanmartin, and Joe La Sorsa, all lefties who saw time at the big league level in the Reds bullpen during the 2025 season who are no longer within the organization. He’ll pair with Sam Moll (barring any further LHP additions) to form the southpaw options heading into 2026.

Source: https://www.redreporter.com/hotstove/49263/cincinnati-reds-rumors-caleb-ferguson

 

[Cincinnati Reds]

Cincinnati Reds payroll update with Caleb Ferguson on the books

The Cincinnati Reds further bolstered their bullpen on Wednesday with the signing of lefty Caleb Ferguson, who comes to the Queen City fresh off a 2025 season split between the Pittsburgh Pirates and Seattle Mariners.

He fired 65.1 IP of 3.58 ERA, 3.26 FIP ball with a new and improved arsenal on the mound, and for his efforts he was rewarded with a 1-year, $4.5 million deal by the Reds. That was confirmed by The Enquirer’s Gordon Wittenmyer on Thursday.

Caleb Ferguson signing official with Reds. One year, $4.5 million.

— Gordon Wittenmyer (@GDubMLB) December 18, 2025

The addition of Ferguson helps alleviate the threadbare nature of the team’s bullpen, which waved goodbye to the likes of Ian Gibaut, Brent Suter, Scott Barlow, and Nick Martinez this winter (in addition to Emilio Pagan, who has since re-signed with the club). Together, Pagan and Ferguson will earn some $14.5 million for the 2026 season.

That $14.5 million falls into the pool of guaranteed money already on Cincinnati’s books for next year alongside the salaries of Ke’Bryan Hayes ($7 million), Hunter Greene ($8.33 million), and Jose Trevino ($5.25 million) for a total of $35.58 million that’s already in ink. That’s in addition to the estimated ~$48.5 million they’ll owe to their large class of a baker’s dozen arbitration-eligible players, headlined by Brady Singer (who’s estimated to get almost $12 million in his final year before free agency).

So, that’s a little over $84 million that’s already tied up for just 18 players on the active roster. If you were to simply fill out the remaining 8 spots on the active roster with pre-arb players making league minimum – that’s $780,000 – that’s an additional $6.24 million, bringing the total to $90.24 million.

You can’t forget Jeimer Candelario’s albatross of a deal, though. Despite being cast off last year, he’s still owed $13 million for the 2026 season (with a $3 million buyout for 2027), meaning the initial $13 million there is likely still accounted for on the 2026 Reds payroll. So, they’re at something around $103.24 million for the upcoming season.

Over a month ago Nick Krall intimated to the media that ‘our 2026 payroll will be around the same as our payroll from 2025,’ as Mark Sheldon of MLB.com relayed at the time. That was just shy of $112 million on Opening Day and $116 million by season’s end after the July 31st trade deadline moves, per Cot’s Contracts. Over at The Athletic, C. Trent Rosecrans cited figures from USA Today that pegged the Reds payroll between $3-5 million higher for both Opening Day and season’s end, so there could be slightly more wiggle room left.

Still, you’re looking at something in the range of $9-15 million remaining for the 2026 Reds to spend, assuming those earlier figures aren’t impacted by a trade that pulls someone currently on-roster off of it.

There’s the issue of the offense still left to address, one that was not solved by simply signing Kyle Schwarber. A player in the realm of a Ryan O’Hearn would eat up a good chunk of what’s remaining, for example, as would a reunion with Austin Hays. There’s also still the void left by Barlow and Martinez, who ate up a combined 89 IP of relief last year while bringing more veteran presence (presents!) to the ‘pen than anyone they’ve got down there currently. That’s also failing to add any additional starting help and simply hoping they can mop-up the 200+ IP that Martinez, Zack Littell, and Wade Miley consumed as starters last year from within their current ranks.

There’s still time for additions and for Krall & Co. to get creative, but the arbitrary tightening of the payroll belt is already beginning.

Source: https://www.redreporter.com/cincinnati-reds-rumors/49307/cincinnati-reds-payroll-caleb-ferguson

 

[Cincinnati Reds]

Baltimore set the price for controllable starting pitching, and they set it high

The Baltimore Orioles have seemingly been in perpetual pursuit of starting rotation upgrades as they emerged from their years-long rebuild at the end of last decade. Their position player corps is robust, with top draft picks littering the field in their uniforms each and every day. But the primary culprit for why they’ve fallen from the 101 win team in 2023 back to last place in the AL East is their lack of starting-caliber arms to put on the mound every 1st inning.

Last season, they received just 8.1 fWAR from all their starting pitchers combined, better than only the rebuilding St. Louis Cardinals, Chicago White Sox, Washington Nationals, Los Angeles Angels, Oaklamento A’s, and Colorado Rockies. The Cincinnati Reds, for instance, effectively doubled that mark (16.1 fWAR). Baltimore only furthered their need for starters by watching veterans Zach Eflin and Charlie Morton reach free agency and shipping former top prospect Grayson Rodriguez and what’s left of his right shoulder to the Angels for outfielder Taylor Ward earlier this offseason.

They’ll presumably get some of Kyle Bradish back, who’s excellent – when healthy. He returned from Tommy John surgery late last year and looked like his old self, but that’s after missing most all of the previous two seasons. It’s a similar story for Tyler Wells, who missed most of the last two seasons with a UCL injury, too, though he’s not of the same caliber as Bradish (when healthy). They’ll back Trevor Rogers – when healthy – who overcame a dislocated knee during the 2025 season to pitch better than he ever had during the latter half of the season. Add-in the bulk innings eaten by Dean Kremer, and that’s the makings of what could be a half-decent rotation for 2026…if healthy.

Still, there were durability concerns all up and down that group, as well as some serious lack of real ‘upside’ within it. So, it was unsurprising to see them jump for Tampa starter Shane Baz in a trade earlier this week, a deal for a former top prospect who oozes upside and comes with three full seasons of team control.

What was surprising, though, is just how much they had to give up to get Baz. As MLB Trade Rumors confirmed, Tampa will get outfielder Slater de Brun and catcher Caden Bodine – both 1st round draft picks from the most recent MLB Draft – as well as righty Michael Forret, outfielder Austin Overn, and a Competitive Balance Round A pick in the upcoming 2026 draft. Forret was a consensus Top 10 prospect within Baltimore’s system after an excellent 2025 season in the minors, while Baltimore spent over $7 million combined to sign de Brun and Bodine after they were two of their four picks in the 1st round this summer. And de Brun, it’s worth pointing out for relative value’s sake, was technically a Competitive Balance Round A pick.

Despite all of his hype, he’s coming off a 2025 season in which he pitched to a 4.87 ERA (4.37 FIP) and 1.34 WHIP across 166.1 IP down in Tampa, though he did so while their home ball park was the A-ball site of the New York Yankees affiliate after their own home dome was minced in Hurricane Milton. He yielded 18 dingers in those incredibly cozy confines (in only 82.1 IP there), his 5.90 ERA in that stadium a far cry from the 3.86 mark he put up in 84.0 IP elsewhere last season. He also gave up only 8 homers on the road last year.

Still, that was all from a 26 year old pitching in the first full big league season of his career. He fired 79.1 IP of much better ball (3.06 ERA, 4.07 FIP) for the Rays in 2024, but that came after missing all of the 2023 season due to an elbow injury and having logged just 40.1 IP of 4.02 ERA ball across the two seasons prior. So, despite all of Baz’s reputation – former 1st round pick, Top 10 overall prospect prior to 2022 by both Baseball America and Baseball Prospectus – the reality is he’s a guy with three controllable years remaining who’s been valued at a grand total of 3.1 bWAR/3.4 fWAR in 286 career big league innings, to date.

There’s ample value to that player, sure. It just seems like Baltimore was willing to throw more quantity to acquire that player than I would have ever estimated, even if there’s still a lot of question marks about just how top-end the quality of those players may be down the road.

It’s a pretty stunning tell for the trade market for controllable starting pitchers, something that I’m sure the Cincinnati Reds both a) know and b) help set themselves. Given their preponderance of controllable starters of varying quality and control, I’d be shocked if Baltimore hadn’t kicked tires on what it would take to pry away Andrew Abbott, Rhett Lowder, Nick Lodolo, or even Hunter Greene from the Reds – and that none of those players got moved tells me the Reds asking price was as high or higher than what it took to get Baz. There are only so many teams currently trying to contend that are desperate for starting pitching and so many teams currently trying to contend that have potentially enough wealth of it to spare, after all.

That’s a concept I looked at closer just nine days ago when, on paper, it sure looked like the Reds and Orioles could line up for a deal. At the time, though, I wondered openly if the Reds might look for something more ready-made at the big league level in exchange for one of their controllable arms, and it’s clear in the Baz deal that Tampa was much more willing to accept players who won’t see a big league game anytime soon than this Reds team likely was.

Baltimore could still be on the hunt for another controllable arm, but likely not at that steep of a prospect cost. So, for a Reds club that’s looking at ways to improve their roster on a shoestring budget, that may well be one potential trade partner that’s now off the table for them. You can make the case that pretty much any pitcher in the Reds regular rotation would make the rotation of any other club much better, but there are only so many teams out there who’d be willing to pay what it would take for the Reds to make that kind of move – and Baltimore sure seemed like the club in the most desperate of positions in that regard.

Now? That path seems a lot muddier.

Source: https://www.redreporter.com/hotstove/49312/baltimore-orioles-shane-baz-cincinnati-reds-lodolo-rumors

 

[Cincinnati Reds]

Reds reportedly kicking tires on Chigago White Sox outfielder Luis Robert, Jr.

Somewhat lost in the weekend shuffle of posturing NFL divisional games, NCAA football playoff high drama, college basketball showcases, Premier League football clashes, and my kids each having the flu at the same time as my wife was the news that the Chicago White Sox and Cincinnati Reds are discussing a deal involving former All-Star outfielder Luis Robert, Jr.

At least, that’s what Bob Nightengale of USA Today had to relay yesterday, so I’ll allow you to process that relay of information with the appropriate filters. Bob suggests that the pale hose are in the market for controllable starting pitching in the wake of signing Munetaka Murikami to be their resident slugger, and moving on from Robert – and much of his $20 million salary for 2026 – might be their next big move.

Next up for the Chicago White Sox after the Munetaka Murakami signing:
They still would like to move CF Luis Robert for pitching depth and are engaged in talks with the New York Mets and Cincinnati Reds.

— Bob Nightengale (@BNightengale) December 21, 2025

If you focus purely on the high points of Robert’s career to date you’ll be salivating at the idea. At age 28, he’s pretty clearly still in prime age. He’s been an All-Star, won a Gold Glove for his work in CF, and also taken home a Silver Slugger. He once posted a 154 OPS+ in a partial season while also has a 130 OPS+ in a full season’s worth of work under his belt, with power to bonk 38 dingers in a single season and speed to swipe as many as 33 bags.

Doing only that would limit your willingness to process the meager .660 OPS he’s posted dating back to the start of the 2024 season. As he’s battled a litany of injuries over that time, he’s limped to just a .223/.288/.372 line in 856 PA in that span, being poor against RHP the entirety of that time while alternating between awful and palatable against southpaws (he hits right-handed). For $20 million in 2026, that brings risk of not just injury into the fold, but also of simply being a bad hitter, too, something that likely would be an ask too large for the Reds were they to take on the bulk of – let alone all of – Robert’s hefty salary.

If there’s any silver lining here, it’s how Robert finished the 2025 season after coming back from a left hamstring injury suffered in June – or, rather, how he finished his 2025 season. When he returned on July 8th, he proceeded to hit .293/.349/.459 in 146 PA across the final 37 games he played, socking 6 homers and swiping 11 bags while showing excellent command at the plate (11/14 BB/K). That all came with only a .317 BABIP, something that’s wholly sustainable for a player who hits the ball as hard as he does and runs as fast as he does, too.

The problem with even the silver lining is that those final 37 games ended on August 26th and not on the season’s final day. That’s because a recurrence of the same hamstring problem flared up and ended his season right then, once again cutting short a chance for him to show he’s fully over the ‘injury prone’ label.

There’s obviously a level where acquiring Robert from Chicago makes infinite sense to the Reds. If they don’t have to give up much and the White Sox eat a ton of cash, sure!

There’s obviously a level where it’s going to be clearly too risky for the Reds front office to say yes, too. If Chicago comes asking for Rhett Lowder and only kicks in $3 million, well, Nick Krall is going to take his ball and go home in a heartbeat.

It’s the middle ground where this concept becomes truly interesting. Robert’s in the final year of his contract, meaning he’ll be reaching free agency at age 29 this time in a year. If he truly has a bounce-back kind of 2026, he’d enter free agency as one of the most coveted position players on the market – a guy with proven 30/30 prowess who plays a premium defensive position. If he’s moved now, and not at the deadline, whoever he plays for in 2026 would get the chance to issue him a Qualifying Offer and potentially recoup a damn decent draft pick if he heads elsewhere in free agency. That’s a corner of these negotiations that cannot be lost on anyone.

Of course, there’s also the chance he pulls a hammy in Cactus League play and is haunted by it off and on all year, and that’s going to drive the GM of any potential team acquiring him nuts trying to process.

If anything, this rumored news is once again an assertion of two tenets we’ve come to take as gospel so far this winter – that the Cincinnati Reds know they need a big bat for their lineup, and that the rest of the baseball world is envious of the kind of pitching depth the Reds have put together.

Source: https://www.redreporter.com/hotstov...rade-rumors-chicago-white-sox-cincinnati-reds

 

[Cincinnati Reds]

The overhaul of the St. Louis Cardinals is nearly complete

Chaim Bloom took over as president of baseball operations of the St. Louis Cardinals following the end of the 2025 season, doing so after serving as an advisor to exiting PoBO John Mozeliak dating back to September of 2024. Prior to those jobs with that particular NL Central power, Bloom served as Chief Baseball Officer of the Boston Red Sox from October of 2019 until his firing near the end of the 2023 season.

Bloom, I would wager, has a pretty good feel for both the farm system in place in the Red Sox organization as well as the way in which their ownership group works. So, it’s somewhat unsurprising to see him having struck two major trades with Boston, even if – in hindsight – it’s probably somewhat odd to see two huge salary moves between the same two clubs in one single offseason.

That’s precisely what’s happened, however. St. Louis, mired in (for them) a serious rebuild after finishing 71-91, 83-79, and 78-84 in full-season play dating back to 2023, entered this offseason not only with longtime head Mozeliak scheduling his own departure from the organization, but with a pretty public mandate to scale back their big-money expenditures and focus on a roster overhaul aimed far into the future. Nolan Arenado’s situation became the flashpoint for such direction over a year ago, and while the Cards haven’t (yet) managed to find a taker for the $37 million still owed to the future Hall of Famer, they have now officially manged to jettison both of Sonny Gray and Willson Contreras to Boston and save a pile of money in the process.

In something of an interesting twist, pitcher Hunter Dobbins – who made 11 starts in 13 appearances for the Red Sox at the big league level last season – is the lone player heading back to St. Louis who was in the Boston organziation when Bloom was running things there. The rest of the two respective hauls came on board more recently, in case that’s any indication of just how long-term the Cardinals were willing to project when it came time to making these two deals go through. So while these two respective deals for Gray and Contreras surely had Bloom’s connections with Boston written all over them, it wasn’t purely so he could pilfer the farm system he himself had created.

What he has done through looping his known quantities in Boston into the equation, though, is shrink St. Louis’ payroll significantly. Per FanGraphs, their estimated 2026 payroll now sits at just $106 million after wrapping their 2025 season at $144 million, and that’s before they probably find a taker for Arenado somewhere else…even though Boston is still in the 3B mix with Alex Bregman floating in free agency. Further deals sending away Lars Nootbar ($5.7 million in 2026) and/or Brendan Donovan ($5.4 million) could reduce those figures even further, moves that would continue to pull the Cards right into exactly what they’re aiming to be at the moment.

Namely, a rebuilding team – but a rebuilding team that’s losing games on the cheap, not on the expensive. There’s nothing worse, after all, than actively being bad in the loss column while also being on the hook for a lot of bloated, bad contracts. This series of moves by the new St. Louis front office, though, has steered them into the much more palatable waters where they’re bad now, but hoarding cash to use to emerge sooner from their rebuild than they otherwise would have, something that should be viewed as an unfortunate development for the rest of the division.

To Boston’s credit in this, each of Sonny Gray and Willson Contreras still bring a lot to the table, and the Sox are going to be better for it in 2026. Flexing their financial might here landed them two established players who previously had no-trade clauses, moves that suggest they not only used their dollars, but their reputation as a place where you can go to win baseball games as a huge selling point that other franchises simply couldn’t offer.

The Cincinnati Reds, in particular, should be watching St. Louis with anxious eyes. This is their window, after all, a time for them to press the gas for a small ‘peak’ as they continue to employ their boring and blasé path of ‘avoiding peaks and valleys’ to maintain some relevance from borderline mediocrity. They’ve got a roster in place that, with a few additions, could have the upper hand over most all of the division at the moment, especially that of a St. Louis franchise that has so long held that upper hand itself. And St. Louis, clearly, is making the kinds of moves now to make sure they don’t forfeit that upper hand for long, leaving the Reds faced with the significant decision of whether to go for it while they’ve got it, or simply bide their time once more until it’s once again much, much more difficult to succeed with their slow-boat approach.

Source: https://www.redreporter.com/hotstove/49316/st-louis-cardinals-contrars-arenado-rebuild-nl-central