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Blue Jays at Dodgers – World Series Game Four

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After reaching base a staggering nine times during last night’s epic 18 inning Game 3, Shohei Ohtani will toe the rubber for the Los Angeles Dodgers in Game 4 tonight at Dodger Stadium (while also leading off, because of course).

The Toronto Blue Jays will look to claw their way back into a level series on the arm of Shane Bieber, the former American League Cy Young Award winner and Cleveland stalwart whom they acquired at this summer’s trade deadline.

First pitch is set for just after 8 PM Eastern, and the game will once again be televised on FOX.

Considering how gassed both bullpens are, I’d wager that we’ll be seeing the most possible out of these two starters, and if either is knocked out early this game could get sideways in a hurry. On top of that, George Springer is not in the lineup for the Jays to begin as he’s still nursing the side/oblique issue that forced him out of the game last night. Rumor has it he may still be available to pinch-hit (or pinch run, even) should the need arise, but that puts Toronto without its best hitter from the regular season as tonight’s pivotal matchup begins.

Let’s baseball!

Source: https://www.redreporter.com/playoffs/49009/blue-jays-dodgers-world-series-game-four
 
Should the Reds try to sign catcher Tyler Stephenson long-term?

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Welcome to SB Nation Reacts, a survey of fans across the MLB. Throughout the year we ask questions of the most plugged-in Reds fans and fans across the country. Sign up here to participate in the weekly emailed surveys.

It’s somewhat hard to believe, but the Cincinnati Reds drafted catcher Tyler Stephenson in the 1st round of the 2015 MLB Draft, meaning he’s already been in the organization for over a decade at this point.

On the very June day when he was picked, Mike Leake scattered 10 hits across 6 innings of 2 ER ball against the Philadelphia Phillies in what became a 6-4 Reds victory. The top of the lineup that day will give you nostalgia – Brandon Phillips at 2B, Joey Votto at 1B, Todd Frazier at 3B, Jay Bruce in right, and Zack Cozart at short. Manny Parra, JJ Hoover, and Aroldis Chapman later came on to finish that one out.

If that makes it feel like it was an eon ago, well, it was. Stephenson has been in this organization for a heckuva long time, and we’ve now reached the point where next season will see him turn 30 years old while in the final year of team control before he reaches free agency. That is, of course, if the Reds don’t sign him to a contract extension before that point, something that sure hasn’t had any public rumor leaked if it’s in the works.

That somewhat begs the question, then. Should the Reds explore an extension with the guy who’s been their main catcher for the last five seasons after debuting late in 2020?

When Tyler was drafted out of high school back in 2015, the hope was that his big frame and projectionable power would turn into a middle of the order bat. At times you’ve still seen glimpses of that, but he’s never hit more than 19 dingers in a season nor slugged more than .482 – and that latter mark was in an injury-shortened 50 game season in 2022. To date he’s hit .261/.338/.426 in nearly 2000 career PA, good for a 104 OPS+ (though he’s only been a total 98 OPS+ hitter over the last three seasons of work combined). That’s a decent enough hitter (especially for the slap-hitting Reds roster), but hardly the kind of thumper they hoped he’d be.

Arbitration estimates suggest he’ll earn somewhere around $6.4 million in 2026 in his final year through that process, and any extension will obviously build off that significantly. He also ranked as one of the worst framers among all catchers in the game last season while also ranking towards the bottom of the pack in pop times to 2B, and the Reds already traded for – and gave a contract extension to – Jose Trevino as a catching option.

On top of that, catching prospect Alfredo Duno posted a Top 3 wRC+ among all hitters in affiliated minor league ball stateside during the 2025 season and could very feasibly be in the discussion for major league time by the end of 2026.

So, what do you think? Is Tyler the kind of stalwart the Reds should throw money at to stick around for a few more years? Or is it probably time to start thinking about what they’ll do when he’s in another team’s uniform?

Source: https://www.redreporter.com/cincinn...ds-rumors-tyler-stephenson-contract-extension
 
Tyler Stephenson enters walk year with his Reds future uncertain

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It’s still tough to truly wrap your head around the season that Tyler Stephenson just had for the Cincinnati Reds, as a dive into the numbers sends you the four corners of the planet.

His strikeout rate spiked over 11% to a career worst 33.9%, just one year removed from it being a career best 22.7% during a 2024 season that most hoped was a breakout. His BABIP somehow increased, though, up from .307 to .322 while his average still managed to dip from .258 down to .231.

His walk rate increased, which was a positive – up to a career best 10.8% from the 9.3% level in 2024.

He also managed to cut his groundball rate drastically, dropping it from 47.4% during the 2024 season down to just 38.0%, and that came with a requisite increas in fly ball rate and line drive rate. His ISO, though, remained mostly stagnant (.186 in 2024, up to .191 in 2025) even though he pulled the ball 3.6% more and upped his hard-hit rate from 43.9% up to 49.2%. His barrel rate jumped significantly, too, up to 14.4% from just 9.1% in 2024.

There’s a lot in there to suggest there was a tangible change in his approach, something that obviously coincides with a new manager and new hitting coach in the dugout for the first time in a bit. Still, his overall production dipped tremendously, his wRC+ down to 99 from 113 and his wOBA down to just .319 from its .339 peak in 2024.

That’s a lot to process for anyone, let alone a catcher who’s turning 30 in the same year he enters his final year of team control. If you put yourself in the shoes of the front office of the Reds and try to figure out just what to make it all, odds are it would be a pretty tough decision to make, too.

Who is Tyler Stephenson at this juncture, entering his twelfth year in the Reds organization? And is it worth doing what it takes to keep him around beyond just 2026?

I asked that question of you for in the latest MLB Reacts post, and when I got the results I’ll admit I was a little bit surprised. Frankly, I thought the lack of a ready-made replacement in-house (Alfredo Duno is incredibly promising but likely a bit further away) would make folks pine to keep him, and I was pretty sure nostalgic reasons would boost support for keeping him around, too.

I was wrong. Just 36% of those who participated in the poll think the Reds should do what it takes to get Stephenson under contract, meaning nearly two-thirds of those respondents think letting him walk when it’s time is a decent idea.

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Maybe the frugality of this front office has gotten to plenty of folks, and they simply don’t think it’s worth throwing money at anyone. Or, maybe the frugality of the front office has gotten to plenty of folks who realize that if there are going to be extensions thrown around to the current Reds roster, Tyler’s simply not high enough on the pecking order to be the guy who gets one.

This also begs an interesting question – if you don’t think the Reds should work out an extension with Stephenson, is it worth exploring what you can get for him on the trade market this winter and at least get something longer-term for his services? He was valued at just 1.1 fWAR (1.3 bWAR) last season, and that’s probably something the Reds could find elsewhere on the market this winter, and there’s always a chance an acquiring team would still view him as the 3.3 fWAR (2.4 bWAR) catcher he was in 2024.

It’s quite the interesting conundrum, one complicated by the team’s decision to trade for and extend Jose Trevino prior to the start of the 2025 season. It’s really, really hard to envision the Reds doling out the kind of money it would take to lock up Stephenson when they’ve already dedicated a good chunk to the guy who’d be his backup, after all.

Source: https://www.redreporter.com/cincinn...tephenson-cincinnati-reds-free-agent-catchers
 
Cincinnati Reds outright Santiago Espinal to AAA Louisville

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Over the final 54 games in which he played during the 2024 season, Santiago Espinal hit .311/.361/.446 with 55 hits for the Cincinnati Reds. The utility infielder, never a huge source of offense, chipped in enough to be counted on in 2025 as a pretty valuable depth piece on the roster.

At least, that was the hope. The reality was that he was more or less an abject disaster with the bat (.243/.292/.282 in 328 PA) and even his defense began to slip. After the Reds made the move at the trade deadline to acquire 3B Ke’Bryan Hayes from Pittsburgh to up the defensive acumen on the dirt, Espinal got just 32 PA before season’s end, starting only 8 times (none of which came in September).

Espinal was set to be arbitration eligible for the third and final time this winter, with estimates suggesting he’d take home a $2.9 million salary for 2026. I say ‘was’ here, however, because the Reds chose to outright Espinal off the roster and down to AAA Louisville on Friday afternoon, removing him from the 40-man roster altogether.

As MLB.com’s Mark Sheldon noted on Bluesky, Espinal has enough service time to reject the AAA assignment and become a free agent should he so choose, though either way he’s now off the roster.

IF/OF Santiago Espinal was sent outright to Louisville. He can reject the assignment and become a free agent. Either way, he is now off the Reds 40 man roster.

Mark Sheldon (@msheldon.bsky.social) 2025-10-31T18:36:25.939Z

The 2025 MLB season could well end tonight if the Toronto Blue Jays dispatch the Los Angeles Dodgers in Game 6 of the World Series, and that would start the administrative clock on all offseason transactions. That includes returning guys on the 60-day IL to the 40-man roster, and the Reds have the likes of Rhett Lowder, Brandon Williamson, Julian Aguiar, Carson Spiers, and Tyler Callihan in need of spots. With Espinal a pretty clear non-tender candidate anyway, the Reds seem to be getting a jump on cleaning out their roster before those moves become mandatory.

Source: https://www.redreporter.com/latest-news/49026/santiago-espinal-cincinnati-reds-roster-rumors
 
Matt McLain likely to qualify for Super Two status, raise

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The salary structure and team control matrix for Major League clubs is complicated and convoluted, but there are at least a couple of tenets to it that generally hold.

Clubs get six years of team control over players, and the players typically operate at or around league-minimum salaries for the first three of those years – after which time they go through the arbitration process and begin to get raises based upon their performance. The better you’ve been (in at least the right specific categories of production), the more money you make each trip through arbitration, and previous year salaries serve as a benchmark on which you get your raise.

Guys like Spencer Steer and TJ Friedl are hitting that threshold for the first time this winter, and will begin to make significantly more money going forward.

Those years, though, are full years, and partial years don’t quite get you there. This comes into play when you see teams waiting conspicuously long to call up top prospects at the start of seasons, often waiting until May or June to promote them in pretty clear efforts to manipulate their service time – the years of team control – to effectively get 3/4ths of a seventh year of control over them.

As a way to combat that, the top 22% of players with more than two years of service time (and less than three years) become eligible for Super Two status, effectively giving them a fourth year of arbitration eligibility (and kick-starting their increased earnings a year early). As the fine folks at MLB Trade Rumors explained yesterday, that typically involves a service time threshold of two years and 120 to 140 days, with all players who’ve logged at least that much qualifying.

This year, the cutoff is expected to be two years and either 139 or 140 days, and Cincinnati’s Matt McLain has exactly two years and 140 days of service time under his belt. So, rather than play the 2026 season on a roughly league-minimum salary of $780,000, he’s estimated to command a $2.6 million salary through the arbitration process for which he’s about to officially qualify.

Brandon Williamson similarly sits with two years and 139 days of service time, so there’s a chance he qualifies as a Super Two, too. He won’t command quite the same salary increase as McLain, but it would still be at least a few hundred thousand above actual league-minimum.

(If you’re at home doing the math, yes, players earn service time even when they’re on the 60-day injured list rehabbing. So while it still seems like we’ve barely seen any of McLain and Williamson, they picked up service time while on the big league roster even while sidelined with their respective ailments over the last two seasons.)

Each of Andrew Abbott and Elly De La Cruz have more than two years of service time (and less than three), but both will fall short of Super Two status by several weeks, meaning they’ll once again play on a salary at or around league-minimum for the 2026 season (assuming the Reds don’t hammer out longer-term contracts independent of mere team control between now and then).

Source: https://www.redreporter.com/cincinnati-reds-rumors/49022/matt-mclain-super-two-arbitration-salary
 
Ian Gibaut, Santiago Espinal elect free agency

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The Cincinnati Reds made make or break roster decisions with a pair of veterans over the past week, choosing to outright both right-hander Ian Gibaut and infielder/outfielder Santiago Espinal off the 40-man roster and assign them to AAA Louisville.

Both Gibaut and Espinal, though, have enough service time as veterans to control their own destinies in these situations. Rather than accept those assignments, both elected to become free agents in search of big league opportunities.

The Enquirer’s Gordon Wittenmyer had the details this morning on Espinal, while Gibaut’s decision was noted in the MLB.com transaction log on Friday.

A day after the Reds announced they outrighted Santiago Espinal to AAA Louisville, he exercised his right to become a free agent.

— Gordon Wittenmyer (@GDubMLB) November 1, 2025

It’s a common occurance this time of year as teams look to free up spots at the end of their roster for administrative purposes. Players on the 60-day IL who still have team control have to be returned to the 40-man after the World Series, for instance, and the Reds now have just 37 men on the 40-man to help accommodate those returns (of Rhett Lowder, Brandon Williamson, and Julian Aguiar, in particular).

It’s also a common occurance for veterans in similar situations as Espinal and Gibaut. Both are arbitration-eligible players again this winter, though both are coming off the kinds of 2025 seasons that wouldn’t really inspire a team to give them a raise on salaries already above league-minimum. In other words, both guys were firmly in the non-tender crosshairs, but the non-tender deadline is another three weeks away – waiting for those three weeks before cutting them loose wouldn’t free up the roster spots they’ll need before then.

So, the Reds went ahead and made it happen.

Of course, both players likely cleared waivers for similar reasons in that no team is going to claim them right now given their expected salary raises. Teams often try to pass guys like this through waivers at precisely this time because they know those 40-man spots are precious right now, though that occasionally means a guy who’s more fringe than teams realize will become available on waivers. Now, the Reds have a little bit more wiggle room to pounce on such a player should the chance arise.

As for Gibaut and Espinal, both have shown they’re capable big leaguers in smaller roles over the last few seasons, and their own expectation is that they’ll be able to land a big league deal to do so elsewhere, even if it’s now at a rate that’s below what their arbitration estimates were had the Reds kept them around through that process.

Source: https://www.redreporter.com/cincinn...ian-gibaut-santiago-espinal-elect-free-agency
 
Key administrative dates for the MLB offseason

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It is a perfectly fine and normal reaction this morning to have woken up and proclaimed that the Toronto Blue Jays won the World Series last night. In a perfect world, they’d have. In the real world, the pretty much kind of did, for a bit, and that’s enough for most of us.

That the Los Angeles Dodgers completely a completely bonkers comeback on the field in their opponents’ stadium is the reality, but that’s a mere detail to that Evil Empire at this juncture of their dominance. That they were so close to the brink by this Jays club is the real story, and likely will be for many in the game as we drift further and further from the actual details.

It’s akin to the same way so many remember the ‘97 Marlins and ‘01 Diamondbacks instead of a decades-long Yankees dynasty that won however goddamn many titles they won in that span. Baseball fans across the world, perhaps especially in markets that so rarely make it to the big stage, naturally gravitate to those special, similar teams who actually do.

Anyway, the 2025 MLB season is in the books. Players whose contracts reached their conclusion at the end of the 2025 MLB season officially become free agents today, and five days from today they’ll be able to sign with any team in the game (should they so choose). That means the likes of Emilio Pagan, Nick Martinez, Miguel Andujar, and Zack Littell could only negotiate with the Cincinnati Reds for five days (should they so choose), after which they can sign elsewhere – but as of today, they’re all free agents.

Qualifying Offer (QO) decisions must also be made within five days from today, though there is zero expectation of that being a drama-inducer for the Reds again this year. They can’t give a QO to Martinez again after they did so last year, and nobody else who’s a free agent warrants that kind of one-year, $22.025 million dice roll.

Trades, though, can officially begin happening again today (if any front office exec is up to it and not laying on a beach somewhere for a few days). It feels as if Nick Krall’s entire personality is I got sunburned once when I was seven, so it’s doubtful that he’s out there on la playa. Maybe he’s already hard at work!

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Option decisions from both the player side, the team side, and those rarely-activated mutual options must be decided upon within five days from today, too. Players on the Reds that fall into that category include Scott Barlow, Brent Suter, and Austin Hays, with varying expectations on the reality that they get picked up and return.

November 21st marks the deadline to tender contracts to players who are under team control and within the arbitration and pre-arbitration windows. The non-tender deadline, it’s when the Reds will face tough decisions on keeping guys around who are now earning raises due to service time but may not be producing better than players they can find for cheaper. Sam Moll and Connor Joe might see their time up at that point, while the likes of Ian Gibaut and Santiago Espinal likely would have had the Reds not gone ahead and lopped them off the roster within the last week.

December 10th will see the Rule 5 Draft, where clubs can effectively pluck prospects who haven’t been promoted fast enough out of other organizations under the right set of parameters. Each club gets the chance to ‘protect’ players who’ve spent enough time in their own systems by placing them onto the 40-man roster, but obviously those roster spots are pretty precious and limited. So, you’ll see a lot of transactions in the run-up to that draft as teams try to position themselves for the long-term the best they can.

For those players who get tendered a contract in November and are arb-eligibles, they’ll have to sort out a precise figure with the team by mid-January lest an independent arbitrator get involved and settle it for both parties in truly awkward fashion.

How the Cincinnati Reds manage to navigate a lot of this administrative stuff will ultimately determine how much risk they’ll take in the more liquid markets of player acquisition, since finding out a) exactly who’s still around and b) how much those guys will precisely cost is of the utmost priority for this penny-pinching franchise. If they can get through the options/roster-adds/arbitration section of their offseason without any big surprises, we’ll find out just how many low-level guys they’ll be willing to spend on in late January and February this time around, players in the typical mold of Hays, Wil Myers, Tommy Pham, Barlow, Buck Farmer, and Hunter Strickland. You know the deal.

Those are the key dates to look forward to now that the Toronto Blue Jays have more or less basically won themselves a World Series. Congratulations to them, and I suppose to the Dodgers for playing a great heel.

Source: https://www.redreporter.com/cincinnati-reds-rumors/49035/key-mlb-offseason-dates-deadlines
 
Looking back at Red Reporter’s preseason predictions for the Cincinnati Reds

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Every year as a new season dawns, I do my best to come up with spur of the moment, lightly researched predictions for the upcoming season. I am not living completely under a rock, however, so these do tend to be hunches that accumulate over months of casual offseason observance of happenings around the league, and while I don’t normally scour my spreadsheets prior to making these calls, there’s at least a smidgen of real reasoning behind why I go with them.

I also try to make them a bit outlandish, because nobody needs to waste time reading that Tarik Skubal is going to be really good.

Therefore, they start out as dumb predictions. And when the end of the season rolls around, they almost always end up looking even dumber!

Here’s the link to my Five Dumb Predictions for the 2025 Cincinnati Reds I made back in March.

Get out your red (Reds?) pens and start the grading!

1) Nick Lodolo clears 150 IP, leads all Reds pitchers in WAR​


Hey! I got this one correct!

Well, I got the idea of it correct, at least.

All signs pointed towards Nick Lodolo entering this season as healthy as he’s been at any point of his tenure with the Reds, and that paired with his talent meant I felt confident he’d end up leading the line for Cincinnati pitchers. He held up his end of the bargain, too, firing 156.2 innings of brilliant 3.33 ERA ball – good for 4.9 bWAR and a hefty bump in his salary via arbitration this winter.

That’s about as good as I could have asked for, and given Hunter Greene’s inability to stay healthy for a full season I felt confident that ‘150+ innings of Lodolo pitching as good as he can’ would be the default for ‘best Reds pitcher.’ Fortunately, I completely overlooked Andrew Abbott’s ability to be even better than that, and that’s precisely what he was.

Abbott topped Lodolo in bWAR (5.6 to 4.9) and fWAR (3.9 to 2.8 in a really awkwardly terrible underestimation of them both), so I only get half credit for this one. Props to both Nick and Andrew on pretty damn stellar seasons, though!

2) TJ Friedl steals 40 bags​


TJ Friedl did not steal 40 bags. No Cincinnati Red stole 40 bags, even, as the runnin’ Redlegs of the David Bell era held up completely under new manager Terry Francona, who opted to rein in his speedsters in lieu of making too many outs on the bases, something that still seems incredibly odd given this team is build on singles and speed and nothing else.

I digress.

Friedl, I thought, would be back to the healthy pre-injury guy he was in 2023, and a full season atop the order with his OBP skills would produce some runnin’. I was wrong. He barely moved. He stole 12 bags, which is not 40 bags.

3) Sal Stewart is a key cog in the infield by season’s end​


At just 21 years of age, Sal Stewart bashed his way through the AA Southern League to begin the 2025 season before completely obliterating AAA International League pitching for 38 games.

Then, in August, he got the call from the Reds themselves.

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Across 18 games and 58 PA, Stewart mashed to the tune of a 121 OPS+, socking 5 dingers and helping the moribund offense squeak into the playoffs by the smallest of margins.

The only question now, though, is where he’ll play in the infield going forward, as the front office’s incredibly odd decision to acquire Ke’Bryan Hayes and his noodle of a bat at the hot corner has created a logjam at 1B with Stewart and Spencer Steer.

Sal, though, officially arrived. I’m 1.5 for 3.

4) Elly De La Cruz socks 44 dingers​


I’m 1.5 for 4.

Elly got off to a hot enough start to the 2025 season, a hot June leaving him with 18 homers through his first 79 games of the season. That’s not quite a 44-dinger pace, but it isn’t too far off, and my hopes on this one were still high heading into the heat of the summer when balls usually begin to fly out of every park – especially GABP.

Sadly, hitting coach Chris Valaika got to Elly (and the rest of the offense) and turned each hitter on the roster into peak Jack Hannahan, and Elly went eons without so much as hitting even one dinger. He finished with just 22 on the season despite his legendary power, and it’s just the starting point for questions to be asking about what the living hell the front office and coaching staff actually has in mind for this roster.

5) The Reds – yes, the Reds – make the playoffs​


I’d like to personally thank Rob Manfred for expanding the playoffs so much that you, me, little Jimmy, and even the Cincinnati Reds can find a way to make the playoffs despite entering the final week of a 6+ month season wondering if they could even finish the year over .500.

The superexpanded megaplayoffs have diluted the sport and made the regular season significantly less meaningful, but despite that having been the case for years the Reds still hadn’t found a way to sneak into them for some 13 years. That changed in 2025 as they held a tiebreaker over the New York Mets that earned them the #6 seed in the NL Playoffs and a chance to finally play on the big stage again.

I’m still reconciling my feelings about the 2025 Reds. They never felt like they were really a ‘good’ team despite their elite pitching, and I still don’t know exactly how many of the pieces they have seem like they should be around long-term. Still, they were good enough to clear this particular threshold before crashing out, and that’s not nothing.

2.5 out of 5. I’ll take it!

Source: https://www.redreporter.com/off-season/49014/cincinnati-reds-preseason-predictions-lodolo
 
Ke’Bryan Hayes wins NL Gold Glove Award for work at 3B

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Defense has never really been the calling card for the Cincinnati Reds, at least not of late.

This is the same franchise with the same owner and a lot of the same members of the front office who doled out big money deals to bring in Nick Castellanos for a corner outfield spot and Mike Moustakas, whom they tried moving up the defensive ladder despite him being old and slow and woefully outmatched.

Dating back to the start of the 2020 season, the Reds total team DEF via FanGraphs checks in at -175.4, a mark that’s only worst-ed by five other clubs across Major League Baseball. That list includes perennial losers like the Los Angeles Angels, Chicago White Sox, Washington Nationals, and Oakland/Sacramento/Vegas A’s, too.

The Reds hadn’t had a Gold Glove winner since Tucker Barnhart took one home back in 2020, and it sure felt like they hadn’t had a player in front of the plate take one home since the signing of the Magna Carta. In reality, it had been since Brandon Phillips won one for his work at 2B back in 2013 – and Cincinnati hadn’t had a 3B win one since Scott Rolen in 2010.

That changed on Sunday evening, mercifully. Trade deadline acquisition Ke’Bryan Hayes won the National League Gold Glove Award for 3B, and did so incredibly deserving fashion. He had previously been named a finalist at his position (as had Spencer Steer at 1B, though Steer did not win at his position), and it was pretty obvious at that time that he was the frontrunner to win.

Defense is the obvious calling card for Hayes, who owns just a 63 wRC+ in 966 PA dating back to the start of the 2024 season. That’s good for the 5th worst among the 316 MLB players who’ve logged at least 500 PA in that time, which is a painful thing to write. That said, his 25.7 DEF in that same span ranks 10th overall, and that’s behind the outsized weight of four catchers alongwith superstars Bobby Witt, Jr. and Francisco Lindor, among several others.

That’s what the Reds paid for, both in prospects and taking on the remaining millions on his long-term contract, and that’s precisely what they received. Hayes is an absolutely elite defender, and he’s plenty good enough at that to carry him in your everyday roster provided that you surround him with enough offense elsewhere that it’s not a problem. It’s that latter part that the Reds struggled to do in 2025, and it damn well should be the primary goal of the front office heading in to 2026.

Congrats to Ke’Bryan!

Source: https://www.redreporter.com/latest-news/49040/kebryan-hayes-nl-gold-glove-award-3b
 
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