The
Las Vegas Raiders own the
No. 1 pick of the 2026 NFL draft, allowing the organization to finally get its franchise quarterback. That makes Indiana’s Fernando Mendoza, who is considered by many as the top prospect at the position, the current favorite to be the first player off the board in April.
The Heisman Trophy winner is putting the finishing touches on a fantastic season, completing
72.3 percent of his passes for 3,172 yards and 36 touchdowns to just six interceptions, as of Jan. 7. His passing touchdowns, yards per attempt (9.6), adjusted yards per passing attempt (10.91) and passer rating (184.7) all lead the country, while the Hooisers are two wins away from securing a National Championship.
Clearly, Mendoza has impressive numbers and accolades, but what can he bring to Las Vegas if the Raiders make him the first overall pick? Let’s take a look at a few throws from his game against Penn State and versus Ohio State in the Big Ten Championship to find out.
Every time I watch this throw from Fernando Mendoza, I'm more impressed with it
-OSU shows Cover 1 pre-snap, rolls to Cover 2 with slot CB dropping into deep half
-Over route from #3 occupies field safety for 1on1 on post
-Blitzer beats RB
-Ball hits WR in stride 50+ yards
pic.twitter.com/yE6H0eSysC
— Matt Holder (@MHolder95)
January 6, 2026
There’s already been a lot of discourse surrounding Mendoza’s arm strength, with many claiming it’s average or slightly below. In my opinion, that’s a false narrative, and he has plenty of arm talent to push the ball down the field.
The throw above is the best one he’s made so far this season, as the ball hits the wide receiver in stride about 50 yards down the field for an explosive play. But the entire process is what makes this rep really special.
The Buckeyes show Cover 1 pre-snap with a single-high safety and the cornerbacks stacked on top of the receivers within five yards of the line of scrimmage. However, the defense is disguising its coverage, rolling into Cover 2 post-snap by having the outside slot corner (No. 3) at the bottom of the screen drop into the deep half while the single-high safety widens toward the hash mark.
It’s also worth noting that Caleb Downs (No. 2), Ohio State’s highly-regarded safety, is also lined up as a slot corner but isn’t the defensive back who drops into the deep half as a quarterback would typically expect. In theory, that should help disguise the coverage even more. However, Mendoza isn’t fooled.
With the deep over route from the inside slot receiver, the safety is occupied and has to stay near the hash mark on the boundary side of the field, and the dig route from the outside receiver prevents the Tampa dropper (Downs) from continuing to work for depth. That creates a one-on-one matchup with the post route against the deep half defender, where the wideout has a leverage advantage to get open.
So, Mendoza lets it rip and puts the ball right on the money. Also, while I wouldn’t consider this a throw under pressure, the middle linebacker blitzes and beats the running back to muddy the quarterback’s look and impact his follow-through on the throw.
Does the Indiana product have elite arm strength like Josh Allen, Justin Herbert or Patrick Mahomes? No, but again, his arm is plenty strong to push the ball down the field.
According to
Pro Football Focus, Mendoza is tied for ninth among Power 4 quarterbacks with 27 completions on passes of 20 yards or more despite having the fewest number of attempts (47) of anyone in the top 10 this season. That gives him the second-highest completion percentage (57.4) on such throws.
Good read, anticipation and velocity from Fernando Mendoza to rip the seam for a big gain
pic.twitter.com/3kve8HqeFj
— Matt Holder (@MHolder95)
January 7, 2026
Building on the section above, the Cal transfer also has decent velocity on his passes to take advantage of windows in zone coverage.
Indiana is trailing late in the game while facing a second and long on a “gotta have it” type of drive. So, Penn State comes out in a three-safety look with both corners in off coverage, trying to prevent an explosive play. They’re in Cover 2 post-snap, where the middle safety is cheating toward the wide side of the field, especially since the slot receiver on the boundary is a tight end split out wide.
Mendoza has his eyes on the safety and sees the defender open his hips, so the quarterback knows he has an opportunity to hit the seam route on the boundary against the linebacker. Then, Mendoza shows good anticipation by starting his throwing motion once the tight end is even with the backer, and puts enough zip on the ball to prevent any defender from making a play on it or breaking up the pass with a big hit at the catch point. This is also a nice layered throw to fit the ball between the second and third levels of the defense.
That puts the Hooisers within striking distance of the touchdown they need to win the game, leading to the clip below.
Game on the line, pressure coming, Fernando Mendoza delivers
pic.twitter.com/ssKfu90BMx
— Matt Holder (@MHolder95)
January 7, 2026
This was Mendoza’s “Heisman moment”.
It’s third down with the Hooisers trailing by four points and just 36 seconds left on the clock, meaning they need a touchdown and are running out of opportunities. The Nittany Lions show an all-out blitz with eight defenders on the line of scrimmage and seven rush the passer with one spy. On the backend of the defense, all three defensive backs are protecting the goal line to prevent a touchdown.
Mendoza starts his read with the single-receiver, but the cornerback is anticipating the fade route by opening his hips to the sideline. Then, the quarterback works to the other side of the formation and notices the defender covering the slot isn’t working for any depth and has his eyes in the backfield, so the seam route will be open in the back of the endzone.
Meanwhile, the pressure is starting to come with the free rusher on the left side of the offensive line and the right tackle losing on the other edge. Mendoza buys some time by taking an extra step on his drop before letting the ball go while taking a hit. The pass is in a perfect spot, high enough where only his receiver can get it, but still catchable, and an acrobatic grab results in six points and the win.
Throwing under pressure is one of the Heisman’s biggest strengths, leading Power 4 quarterbacks with a
71.4 PFF passing grade when the pass-rush is barreling down on him. He doesn’t get phased by pressure and is willing to stand in the pocket and take a hit.
3rd & long against Cover 1, Mendoza looks to the single receiver to hold the safety in the middle of the field, snaps his head around and drops a dime with a back shoulder throw on the slot fade to beat tight coverage
pic.twitter.com/EpPXEttcXD
— Matt Holder (@MHolder95)
January 7, 2026
We’ve seen some flashes of this in a few of the clips above, but this is the best example of the Hooiser using his eye to manipulate the defense.
It’s third and long and Ohio State is in Cover 1 while Indiana comes out in a three-by-one formation. Post-snap, Mendoza starts his read by looking at the single receiver, which keeps the safety in the middle of the field for an extra second to prevent the safety from helping the corner against the slot fade route. Then, Mendoza snaps his head around and delivers a perfect back-shoulder throw to beat tight coverage and put six points on the board.
That’s also a difficult throw, going from the wide hash mark (which is even wider in college than it is in the NFL) to the sideline and just under 20 yards past the line of scrimmage.
Fernando Mendoza on a half-roll, sets his feet and throws the out with anticipation for a 1st
pic.twitter.com/Q1siSbctAx
— Matt Holder (@MHolder95)
January 7, 2026
Mendoza’s ability to throw with anticipation has been touched on in a few of the throws above, and this is another good example. The playcall asks him to execute a half rollout (rather than a full bootleg), and he recognizes that the corner is in man coverage with inside leverage against an out route.
Then, the quarterback sets his feet and starts his throwing motion before the receiver is out of his break. That prevents the corner from being able to make a play on the ball or break up the pass, resulting in a first down.
That being said, the ball placement can be better here. The pass hits the receiver on his backshoulder intead of being out in front of him. Accuracy when throwing on the run is one area where Mendoza can improve and needs become more consistent in.
What I like about Fernando Mendoza when scrambling is that he's quick to recognize and take advantage when defenders leave their man
pic.twitter.com/c54eOGgsi8
— Matt Holder (@MHolder95)
January 7, 2026
While Mendoza isn’t someone who is going to make a ton of off-script plays, one of his strengths when scrambling is recognizing and taking advantage of when defenders don’t plaster and leave their man open.
Indiana’s offensive line has a couple of breakdowns in pass protection, where the left guard doesn’t pick up the defensive tackle and the right tackle doesn’t get wide enough to secure the edge. As a result, the defense has two free rushers and the pocket collapses almost immediately. So, Mendoza evades the rush and buys some time by scrambling to his left.
Then, he moves up the field and toward the line of scrimmage, which gets the corner to leave the wide receiver (No. 80). Mendoza recognizes that and makes a quick decision on the run, hitting the wideout for the third down conversion and setting up first and goal.
Fernando Mendoza isn't going to make anyone miss in the open field, but he is good at reading blocks and has enough speed to make plays with his legs when needed
pic.twitter.com/FvkQJuo76s
— Matt Holder (@MHolder95)
January 7, 2026
Finally, Mendoza’s athleticism has been another talking point and used as a knock against him. While he isn’t going to make anyone miss in the open field, he is good at reading blocks and has enough speed to occassionally make plays with his legs when the situation calls for it.
It’s second and long and Penn State is in man coverage in the clip above. No one is open and the right tackle is starting to lose around the edge, so the quarterback tucks the ball down and takes off. He escapes one diving arm tackle from a defensive lineman and, luckily, a wide receiver (No. 7) recognizes the situation and turns to block the safety. Mendoza sees that and works off the block to turn what could have been a disasterous play into six points.
Also, Indiana called his number via quarterback draws on third downs throughout the season, and he currently has
256 rushing yards and six rushing touchdowns in 14 games. Building on that, college football stats count sacks against a quarterback’s rushing yards but PFF removes those numbers from the equation, pushing him up to
316 yards on the ground.
Is Fernando Mendoza an elite quarterback prospect with game-changing traits? No, but he has plenty of strengths that will translate to the NFL and help him be a quality starter in the league. Also, no one stepped up more in the biggest moments when his team needed it most than the Heisman Trophy winner this season. All of that makes him worth the No. 1 overall pick.
