The Seibu Lions of Japan’s Nippon Professional Baseball posted ace
Tatsuya Imai for major league teams back on Nov. 19. The flamethrowing 27-year-old has until Jan. 2 to negotiate a deal with interested MLB clubs. The Mets, Cubs and Orioles have each been linked to the right-hander so far. The Cubs, in particular, are expected to be a “strong” player in Imai’s market,
per Bruce Levine of 670 The Score. They also made an offer to
Dylan Cease before the former Cy Young runner-up (and former Cubs draftee) signed with the Blue Jays last week, according to Levine.
Jon Heyman of the New York Post adds the Phillies and Yankees as another pair of teams in the running for Imai. He adds that Imai’s camp could schedule in-person visits with interested teams following next week’s Winter Meetings — if he hasn’t already agreed to a deal by that point.
The Cubs make a sensible fit for Imai, even after countryman
Shota Imanaga accepted Chicago’s $22.025MM qualifying offer, opting to forgo free agency in the process. Manager
Craig Counsell’s rotation currently includes Imanaga,
Cade Horton,
Matthew Boyd,
Jameson Taillon and
Colin Rea. Ace
Justin Steele is still on the mend from UCL surgery performed last April. He won’t be ready for Opening Day.
Javier Assad and
Ben Brown could both factor in, too, but both have bullpen experience and minor league options remaining.
Chicago’s interest in bolstering the rotation is well-known. Even after Imanaga opted to return, the Cubs have reportedly been seeking a playoff-caliber starter to add to the top portion of their staff. Imai isn’t necessarily a slam-dunk to fit that description, but his electric stuff and recent performance in NPB suggest he has that ceiling.
Imai, who’ll turn 28 next May, has posted a sub-3.00 ERA in each of the past four NPB seasons — headlined by a career-low 1.92 mark in 163 innings in 2025. Along the way, he’s steadily increased his strikeout rate while at the same time lowering his walk rate. Those improvements culminated in last year’s dominant season, wherein Imai punched out 27.8% of the batters he faced and cut his walk rate to a tidy 7%. He’s one of NPB’s hardest throwers, topping out around 99 mph and sitting more comfortably in the mid-90s. Imai complements that pitch with a slider, splitter and changeup.
Signing Imai would push Rea back into his familiar swingman role and could even create a logjam if everyone is healthy once Steele finishes off his rehab from surgery. That’s wishful thinking, however, given the proliferation of pitching injuries throughout the sport. And if the Cubs
do manage to have a full contingent of healthy rotation arms at that point, it’d fall under the “good problem to have” cliche. A playoff rotation including a healthy Steele, Horton and Imai could be formidable.
The Phillies, meanwhile, haven’t been big players in free agency for pitchers — at least not to the extent they have with hitters — outside of retaining homegrown
Aaron Nola on a seven-year contract. However, that decision is now one of many contributing to a far shakier outlook than we’re used to seeing with the Philadelphia rotation.
Left-hander
Cristopher Sanchez broke out as a top-tier arm with this year’s runner-up finish in Cy Young voting, but the rest of the staff has more questions and/or dwindling club control.
Ranger Suarez is already a free agent.
Zack Wheeler underwent thoracic outlet surgery late in the season. He’s owed $84MM over the next two seasons. Nola struggled to the worst extent of his career, posting an ERA north of 6.00 in 2025.
Jesus Luzardo is a quality mid-rotation arm but will be a free agent next winter.
Taijuan Walker is also entering the final season of a four-year deal. He rebounded to an extent in 2025, but the first two seasons of that $72MM pact were a disaster.
Andrew Painter has long been one of the game’s top pitching prospects, but he was hit hard in Triple-A during his return from 2024 Tommy John surgery.
Obviously, the Phillies already have a lot of money on the long-term books — but perhaps not to the extent some might think. Nola,
Trea Turner and
Bryce Harper are the only players signed beyond the 2027 season. A backloaded deal for Imai — likely one including at least one opt-out opportunity — could make his salary more manageable in years one and two. Those seasons would dovetail with the remaining years on the contracts of Wheeler (through 2027) as well as Walker (through 2026),
Nick Castellanos (through ’26),
Jose Alvarado (through ’26) and
Matt Strahm (through ’26).
Signing Imai would give the Phillies another large contract on the books but also offers protection against a potentially thinned-out starting group come 2027. Luzardo and Walker are free agents at that point. Painter hasn’t pitched in the majors yet. It’s hard to know what to expect from Wheeler and Nola in 2026 — let alone 2027. Imai (or another multi-year rotation acquisition) could provide some protection, although he’s obviously an untested commodity himself (at least against MLB opposition).
On paper, the Yankees’ rotation need is the least acute of this group.
Gerrit Cole could be back relatively early in 2026.
Max Fried was dominant in his first season in Yankee Pinstripes.
Carlos Rodon was outstanding in 33 starts.
Luis Gil,
Cam Schlittler and
Will Warren are all impressive-looking young starters.
Clarke Schmidt could be back late in the season after July Tommy John surgery.
The Yankees already have three pitchers on contracts valued at $162MM or more. Imai would very likely require a fourth commitment of over $100MM and do so at a time when the team is facing questions in the infield and in the outfield. If the Yankees believe Imai can pitch at or near the top of a major league rotation, however, they could sign him and use some of their young pitching and/or prospect depth to make compelling offers for bats on the trade market. It’s a thing offseason with regard to free-agent hitters, after all.
Whoever signs Imai will need to do so within the next four weeks. His posting window closes Jan. 2. The team to sign him will also owe a separate release fee to the Lions in NPB. That fee will equal 20% of the contract’s first $25MM, plus 17.5% of the next $25MM and 15% of any guaranteed money thereafter. Additional earnings unlocked via incentives, escalators and club option years would also be subject to that 15% rate once they become guaranteed.
