The Phillies are acquiring Jhoan Duran of the Twins, confirms ESPN’s Jeff Passan. Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic was the first to report that the two sides were closing in on a trade, while Bob Nightengale of USA Today was the first to report that the Twins would receive catching prospect Eduardo Tait and right-handed pitcher Mick Abel in exchange for their closer.
Duran was one of the biggest names on this summer’s trade market. He came in at no. 34 on MLBTR’s list of the top 50 trade candidates, but he surely would have ranked higher if it seemed more likely that he’d be dealt. The flamethrowing right-hander is one of the undisputed best closers in the game, with a career 2.47 ERA, 2.48 SIERA, and 74 saves in 83 chances over the past four seasons. Dating back to his rookie season in 2022, he has thrown 233 2/3 innings in 223 games, racking up 292 strikeouts (seventh-most among relievers) with an elite 63.2% groundball rate. His 9.10 Win Probability Added (WPA) ranks third in that same span, trailing only Devin Williams and Félix Bautista. The 1,284 pitches he’s thrown at or above 100 miles an hour (per Statcast) are easily the most in the majors; Mason Miller ranks second with 819. Only 27 years old and arguably pitching better than ever – he’s on pace for career-highs in both the FanGraphs and Baseball Reference versions of WAR – Duran remains under team control via arbitration through the 2027 campaign.
The possibility of the Twins trading Duran began to seem more and more realistic over the past couple of days, with the 51-57 Twins looking to take advantage of a seller’s market and a bevy of contending teams seeking late-inning bullpen help. It was no secret the Phillies were one such club. A few weeks ago, The Athletic’s Matt Gelb reported that Duran (and teammate Griffin Jax) would be “prized targets” for Philadelphia, noting that, in contrast to past deadlines, president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski was prioritizing “controllable big leaguers” and, in particular, a controllable “shutdown, late-inning reliever.” Since Gelb’s initial report, several more sources linked the Phillies to Duran, including Nightengale and the New York Post’s Jon Heyman, but the most recent reporting indicated that their refusal to part with top prospect Andrew Painter would ultimately prevent them from landing Duran, with both Nightengale and Rosenthal and Gelb suggesting as much. Evidently, the Twins softened their demands, although there is no doubt the Phillies still paid a high price to acquire their new bullpen ace.
Tait is widely considered a top-100 prospect, ranked 50th by Baseball America, 51st by Baseball Prospectus, and 56th by MLB Pipeline. As BA notes, he is their first top-100 prospect to be traded ahead of the deadline since 2023, and the highest ranked since 2022. Whether or not the Twins achieved their reported goal of landing two top-100 prospects in exchange for Duran depends on which lists you’re looking at; Abel is currently no. 92 on MLB Pipeline’s list, but he dropped off BA’s most recent post-draft rankings and fell off BP’s list after 2023. For what it’s worth, neither Tait nor Abel was included on FanGraphs’ latest top 100 update.
Looking beyond the arbitrary “top 100” cutoff, however, what matters is that the Twins received a pair of highly talented young players, of a caliber rarely seen moved in deadline deals. Tait is a bat-first catcher with big power and a strong throwing arm, but the rest of his defensive game needs significant work. Still, the bat has enough potential that he could succeed in the majors (presumably at first base or DH) even if he doesn’t stick behind the plate. He lit up the competition in the Dominican Summer League and the Florida Complex League in his first two professional seasons, but he hasn’t looked quite as powerful in Single-A and High-A this year. That said, he’s only 18 years old, which is young for his level, and scouting reports matter far more than his numbers right now. Dan Hayes of The Athletic notes that the Twins have “very good” internal grades on Tait.
Abel might not have quite as much upside as he once did, but he has looked much better this year than he did in 2023 or ’24. He has a 2.31 ERA and 3.56 FIP in 13 Triple-A starts, both his best numbers at any level in any year of his professional career. While he looked overmatched at times in his first six MLB starts for the Phillies, his mediocre overall numbers are the combination of three strong starts and three disappointing outings. He’s not there quite yet, but he showed signs that he could soon become a capable big league starting pitcher. Whether that’s a mid-rotation or back-end starter remains is now up to the Twins, but he has good raw stuff and a deep arsenal for their development and coaching staffs to work with.
Heading into play today, the Phillies ranked 24th in MLB with a 4.33 bullpen ERA and 15th with a 3.82 bullpen SIERA. Their strong starting rotation has helped to limit the bullpen’s workload (their bullpen ranks last in innings pitched), but still, it’s not hard to understand why Dombrowski was looking for a significant upgrade. Philadelphia’s longest tenured reliever, hard-throwing lefty José Alvarado, will be out until mid-August serving a PED suspension, and he won’t be eligible to pitch in the playoffs. Jordan Romano, the team’s primary bullpen acquisition of the offseason, has struggled to a 6.81 ERA. No one knows what to expect from David Robertson, who did not sign with a team until earlier this month. He remained one of the best relievers in baseball at age 39 in 2024, but he essentially started his spring training last week. Orion Kerkering and Matt Strahm have provided manager Rob Thomson with a couple of reliable back-end options, but as the Phillies battle with the Mets for the NL East crown and look to contend for a World Series, it’s clear to see why they identified Duran as a major difference-maker.
As for the Twins, there is now no question they are in full sell mode, having dealt Duran and Chris Paddack, whom they sent to the Tigers on Monday. This makes it seem all the more likely that they will soon trade Willi Castro, Harrison Bader, and Danny Coulombe, all of whom are set to hit free agency at the end of the season. However, MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand notes that Minnesota is now far more likely to hold on to Jax, their other controllable relief ace.
Photo in article courtesy of Isaiah J. Downing, Imagn Images.
The Phillies announced the acquisition of outfielder Harrison Bader from the Twins. Minnesota receives two prospects: outfielder Hendry Mendez and right-hander Geremy Villoria. Philadelphia designated reliever Brett de Geus for assignment to clear a 40-man roster spot.
Bader, 31, has been a solid big leaguer for years. He is one of the best outfield defenders in the league, with career tallies of 63 Defensive Runs Saved and 76 Outs Above Average. That DRS total is fifth-best among outfielders since the start of 2017, while the OAA total tops the leaderboard.
His offense has been up-and-down but he’s currently on pace to have his best season at the plate. In 307 plate appearances, he already has 12 home runs. Only once in his career has he hit more than that, which was the 16 he hit in 2021. His 26.4% strikeout rate is a bit high but his 8.8% walk rate is his best mark in years.
On the whole, he has a .258/.339/.439 line this year. His 117 wRC+, a career high, indicates he has been 17% better than league average at the plate this year. Thanks to ten stolen bases and some quality glovework, he’s already been worth 2.0 wins above replacement on the year, in the eyes of FanGraphs.
The Twins have pivoted to sell mode recently. They are 51-57 and 5.5 games out of a playoff spot. This the second deal they have lined up with the Phillies, as they already sent Jhoan Durán to Philadelphia. They also traded Chris Paddack to the Tigers and Brock Stewart to the Dodgers.
Bader has long been seen as likely to go, since he’s an impending free agent. He signed a one-year, $6.25MM deal with the Twins in the offseason. That guarantee came in the form of a $750K signing bonus, a $4MM salary, and a $1.5MM buyout on a mutual option. Mutual options are essentially never picked up by both sides, which is why Bader has been viewed as a rental. His buyout can also increase via plate appearance incentives. He would add $200K at 400, 425 and 450 plate appearances, then $450K at 475 and 500. As mentioned, he’s currently at 307 plate appearances.
His deal also has a $500K assignment bonus if he’s traded. Per Bobby Nightengale of the Minnesota Star Tribune, the Twins aren’t including any money in this deal, so it seems the Phils will take on the remaining salary and the buyout on the option. There’s about $1.3MM of salary left. The buyout, as mentioned, is $1.5MM but can increase.
Money aside, Bader is a great fit for the Phillies. They have been looking for outfield help and right-handed bat. Bader ticks both boxes. Nick Castellanos is cemented in right, but he’s a league-average bat with horrible defensive metrics. Johan Rojas is the opposite, as he’s a great defender who doesn’t hit. Brandon Marsh and Max Kepler are a bit less extreme. They’re both good defenders in a corner but a bit stretched in center. They both can hit but are left-handed hitters who do more damage with the platoon advantage. Kepler is also now battling a triceps injury, per Lochlahn March of the Philadelphia Inquirer.
Bader has largely been playing left field for the Twins out of deference to Byron Buxton. He should be able to pivot back to center for the Phils. That should allow for Rojas, Kepler and Marsh to all be used more selectively. Bader has pretty even platoon splits this year but his career splits are more extreme, with a .248/.315/.461 line versus lefties and a .242/.307/.374 slash against righties. Kepler recently expressed some dissatisfaction with being platooned but he hasn’t helped his cause with a .196/.250/.314 line against southpaws this year.
Mendez, 21, was originally a Brewers prospect. He came to the Phils in a November 2023 trade which sent infielder Oliver Dunn to the Brewers. Dunn was a minor league Rule 5 pick out of the Yankees’ system, making a fairly unusual trade tree for this move.
Since Mendez has come over the Phils, he’s been great at the plate. He spent last year at High-A and has been at Double-A this year. He has stepped to the plate 722 times in those two seasons with a 12.7% walk rate, 13.3% strikeout rate, .287/.380/.412 batting line and 131 wRC+. Baseball America lists him as the #17 prospect in the system. Their report notes that he hits the ball incredibly hard but too often into the ground. He’s not considered a strong outfield defender, so his development as a hitter will be key.
He is eligible for the Rule 5 draft this winter. Perhaps the Phils weren’t going to add him to their 40-man roster or were on the fence about it. The Twins will need to add him this fall if they don’t want him to be exposed.
Villoria, 16, was an international signing of the Phils out of Venezuela. He just signed with the Phils this year out of for a $425K bonus and has 14 professional innings under his belt in the Dominican Summer League. His youth and inexperience naturally make him a long-term play. Baseball America notes that he can already get up to the mid-90s with his fastball and he also has a high-spin slider as well as a changeup.
For the Phils, they’re adding a bit of money to their books but they’re usually not afraid to do that and they’ve clearly got a foot on the gas pedal here. Their core players are mostly in their mid-30s, so they made a bold strike by giving up notable prospects in the Durán deal. Here, they’ve given up a few prospects but not top guys.
They are a third-time payor of the competitive balance tax and over the top tier, meaning they will face a 110% tax rate on Bader’s remaining salary and the buyout. Between the salary and buyout, he’s owed at least $2.8MM, so the Phils will also have to pay over $3MM in taxes on that.
For the Twins, they add a couple of extra prospects from a player who was set to depart in free agency anyway. It’s possible that saving money is a goal for them this week. They could have included money here to ask for a greater prospect return but didn’t do so. They also included Randy Dobnak’s contract in the Paddack deal, seemingly to save a few million bucks. They could still move Willi Castro, Danny Coulombe, Ty France and Christian Vázquez before the day is done, as they are all impending free agents. If they’re willing to move another controllable player like they did in the Duran deal, Griffin Jax could be on the move as well.
Teams like the Mets, Yankees and Dodgers were also connected to Bader in recent weeks. Those teams could pivot to guys like Steven Kwan, Luis Robert Jr., Cedric Mullins and/or Ramón Laureano, who are thought to be available today.
ESPN’s Jeff Passan first reported the Phillies were closing in on a Bader deal for an outfield and pitching prospect. Matt Gelb of The Athletic had the return.
Photo courtesy of Matt Blewett, Jordan Johnson, Imagn Images
An altercation between MLB commissioner Rob Manfred and Phillies star Bryce Harper made headlines in July, with the two-time MVP reportedly standing “nose to nose” with the commissioner and telling him he could “get the [expletive] out of our clubhouse” if he was going to talk about implementing a salary cap (per ESPN’s Jeff Passan). Manfred was holding his annual meeting with the Phillies’ players at Citizens Bank Park.
Reports from Passan and the New York Post’s Jon Heyman and Joel Sherman differ on when the confrontation occurred. Passan writes that Harper sat quietly for most of the meeting, which lasted over an hour, before tensions boiled over and he approached the commissioner. In contrast, Heyman and Sherman write that his comments came “about five minutes into” Manfred’s opening remarks. Regardless of certain discrepancies, what’s clear is that, while Manfred never directly mentioned a salary cap, Harper believed it was implied. He felt strongly enough to claim that players “are not scared to lose 162 games” in their fight against a cap (per Passan). He also questioned what Manfred has ever done “to benefit the players” (per Heyman and Sherman). Despite Harper’s comments, Manfred stayed to finish the meeting, doubling down on the importance of talking about, in Passan’s words, “threats to MLB’s business and ways to grow the game.”
Afterwards, Harper’s teammate Nick Castellanos described the ordeal to ESPN as intense and passionate, and he seemed to confirm it went both ways. “The commissioner [was] giving it back to Bryce and Bryce [was] giving it back to the commissioner,” he explained.
Afterwards, Manfred declined to comment to ESPN or the New York Post, while Harper later told reporters (including Bob Cooney of NBC Sports Philadelphia): “You guys saw what was in the article. But I won’t be getting into the details of what happened or how I felt or anything else like that…I’m just trying to worry about baseball…Everybody saw the words and everything that happened. I don’t want to say anything more than that.”
Harper continued: “I’ve talked labor and I’ve done it in a way that I don’t think I need to talk to the media about it…I’ve always been very vocal, just not in a way that people can see.”
Yesterday, however, Manfred spoke at Wrigley Field to announce that the Cubs would host the 2027 All-Star Game, and he finally addressed his dispute with Harper, claiming: “It was an individual picking a particular way to express himself, and I don’t think you need to make more out of that than that” (per Patrick Mooney of The Athletic).
Perhaps that’s true. Yet, there is no denying it would be in Manfred’s best interests to downplay his altercation with one of the most influential players in the league. It’s also in his best interests to believe this was an isolated incident of an “individual” expressing himself rather than a reflection of how many players feel across all 30 teams.
With the current collective bargaining agreement between MLB and the MLBPA set to expire on December 1, 2026, it’s no secret that several owners are interested in instituting a salary cap. Indeed, according to ESPN’s Jorge Castillo, the MLBPA believes Manfred is pushing for a cap in his clubhouse meetings this year – even if he isn’t using those exact words. Unsurprisingly, the players association is strongly against a cap, arguing it would primarily serve to artificially suppress player salaries rather than increase parity around the league or help to grow the game.
Speaking to reporters ahead of the All-Star Game last month, MLBPA executive director Tony Clark described a salary cap as “institutionalized collusion” (per Castillo). “A cap is not about growing the game,” he said. “A cap is about franchise values and profits. That’s what a cap is about.”
What’s more, while Manfred might not be willing to say “salary cap,” he has already mentioned the possibility of a lockout. Back in March, Clark said that he is expecting a work stoppage after the 2026 season, and many around the league are concerned about the possibility of contentious CBA negotiations eating into the 2027 campaign. It’s not hard to guess what the sticking point in those negotiations might be.
Castellanos told Hannah Keyser and Zach Crizer of The Bandwagon (who first reported on the “heated” meeting between Manfred and the Phillies) that the commissioner was “very eloquently speaking around” the idea of a salary cap. He later said to ESPN: “Rob seems to be in a pretty desperate place on how important it is to get this salary cap because he’s floating the word ’lockout’ two years in advance of our collective bargaining agreement [expiring].”
Manfred began holding annual meetings with each team’s players three years ago, following the lockout that lasted much of the 2021-22 offseason and delayed the start of the 2022 campaign. One reason for these meetings? He wants to communicate directly to the players rather than have his messages go through the MLBPA. During a recent investor event held by the Braves, he said: “The strategy is to get directly to the players. I don’t think the leadership of this union is anxious to lead the way to change. So we need to energize the workforce in order to get them familiar with or supportive of the idea that maybe change in the system could be good for everybody” (per The Athletic’s Evan Drellich).
One way to read those comments? Manfred knows the MLBPA is staunchly opposed to a salary cap. It certainly seems as if he’s hoping to pit the union’s membership against the union’s leadership, in an effort the push through changes that would, in Clark’s words: “add to the owners’ profits and franchise values, while prohibiting clubs from fully competing to put the best product on the field for the fans and limiting player compensation, guarantees and flexibility” (per Drellich).
If Harper’s reaction is any indication, Manfred might not be having as much success connecting with players as he hoped, even as he has, at times, been accompanied at his clubhouse meetings by respected former players in the Commissioner’s Ambassador Program (CAP). But at least for now, the commissioner insists it’s not that serious: “I think more has been made out of this than needs to be made out of it. Bryce expressed his views. At the end of the meeting, we shook hands and went our separate ways. Not all that significant” (per Andrew Seligman of the Associated Press).
Photo in article courtesy of Bill Streicher, Imagn Images.
