Jan 25, 2026; Denver, CO, USA; New England Patriots wide receiver Kayshon Boutte (9) reacts after defeating the Denver Broncos in the 2026 AFC Championship Game at Empower Field at Mile High. Mandatory Credit: Ron Chenoy-Imagn Images | Ron Chenoy-Imagn Images
The New England Patriots don’t have what you might call a No. 1 alpha dog receiver, but maybe that’s for the best in Super Bowl LX.
Based on DVOA, there is no defense better at covering No. 1 receivers this season than the one owned by the Seattle Seahawks. Seattle’s DVOA against said alpha dogs is an absolutely crushing -49.7% (defensive DVOA is better when it’s negative), and nobody else is even close — the Philadelphia Eagles ranked second at -35.5%.
Things become a bit more reasonable as you go down the list, though. Seattle ranks sixth in DVOA against receivers designated as No. 2, 13th against No. 3 receivers, 16th against tight ends (Hunter Henry, that’s your music!), and sixth against pass-catching running backs.
What does this tell you? Based on the Seahawks’ defensive structure, they love to play base nickel defense with rookie Nick Emmanwori as the tentpole linebacker/safety/slot hybrid, they have the NFL’s highest two-deep rate at 78%, they disguise a lot pre-snap to post-snap, and they can get away with all their light boxes in their run defense because they tackle like absolute maniacs. It’s not a “fancy” defense per se, but you’d rather have to deal with a tricked-up group than one which does everything so well fundamentally.
“Oh, I mean, they’re first in the league in scoring on defense, third on offense,” Patriots head coach Mike Vrabel said on Tuesday of that group. “Good mix of veterans and youth. So, any time that you have defenses that are good at keeping points down, it makes it real difficult. They disguise well, they blitz, and sometimes they get pressure with rushing four. I mean, they’ve got four or five guys with six or seven sacks each.”
They also cover deep exceedingly well. This season, against passes of 20 or more air yards, Seattle has allowed just 25 completions on 72 attempts for 750 yards, two touchdowns, two interceptions, and an opponent passer rating of 72.1, the NFL’s fifth-lowest.
Drake Maye already had to get past three of the NFL’s better deep passing defenses to get to the Super Bowl — the Los Angeles Chargers had an opponent passer rating of 88.0 against such passes, the Houston Texans had an opponent passer rating of 64.9, and the Denver Broncos had an opponent passer rating of 59.1. All top 10 in the league.
That showed up in the postseason for Maye, who had been a terrific deep passer in the regular season. In three playoff games, Maye completed just four of 15 deep passes for 133 yards, two touchdowns, one interception, and a passer rating of 75.8. Quite the downturn from his 34 deep passes completed in the regular season on 62 targets for 1,050 yards, nine touchdowns, one interception, and a passer rating of 132.7.
In the playoffs, Drake Maye has faced a gauntlet of defenses designed to blow up deep passes.
It's showed, even when it wasn't snowing.
pic.twitter.com/hYOKQ7Eqot
— Doug Farrar ✍ (@NFL_DougFarrar)
January 28, 2026
The good news is that the Patriots have also been great at defending the deep pass — they’ve allowed 19 completions on 58 deep targets for 590 yards, two touchdowns, two interceptions, and an opponent passer rating of 68.9, which is even better than Seattle’s. Sam Darnold will test that over and over, because that’s how Klint Kubiak has designed the Seahawks’ passing game, and though Darnold can be a streaky quarterback at his best, it’s also possible that the Seahawks navigate New England’s defense for enough of those explosive plays.
Which puts the onus back on Maye, and certainly on receiver Kayshon Boutte, who has been the team’s predominant deep threat this season. Boutte has 12 deep catches on 20 targets for 340 yards and six touchdowns, and Maye has a 143.8 passer rating when throwing deep to No. 9. However, only two of those catches on six targets have come in the postseason.
Kayshon Boutte's two deep catches in three playoff games.
The Patriots will probably need more than that against a Seahawks defense that has been nails all season against the deep ball.
pic.twitter.com/L8EUyY5TZt
— Doug Farrar ✍ (@NFL_DougFarrar)
January 28, 2026
Still, the Patriots have faith in Boutte’s deep-ball acumen, as they should — and that starts with offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels.
“There’s a number of things,” McDaniels
said in October when asked about Boutte’s mastery of the downfield explosions. “No. 1, he runs hard on every play. And I think when you watch a guy in practice run like that, and then accelerate down the field, his long speed has shown up over and over since the spring, just the ability to eventually get past the defense, or to at least get even with them, and have an opportunity to make a play down the field.
“I think he’s strong. He has a physical nature to his play where if the ball is a contested situations, the quarterbacks feels confident that they’re giving the guy an opportunity who’s going to go up and get it.
“And then, I think he tracks the ball very well. He certainly has had an opportunity to make some catches where the ball is going in a different direction, a different angle, and to run full speed with a defender near you, look back for the ball, have to adjust to it, and then have strong enough hands to complete the play. I think that speaks to why he’s been so successful.”
If Boutte can be successful in the biggest game of his life, that’s advantage: Patriots. If not, it’s going to be tough sledding against the best NFL defense either Maye or Boutte has faced so far.
Carlton Davis III – 21.4
