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Notes and thoughts on the Patriots’ young quarterback, the left guard competition, the schedule, and more.
The
New England Patriots and the rest of the NFL continue to take steps toward the 2025 season. A big one came Wednesday, when the league announced its schedule which, naturally, commanded a lot of our attention this week.
As for other stories, thoughts and takeaways from the last few days, here is our weekly notebook clean-up operation. Welcome to the latest edition of the Pats Pulpit
Sunday Patriots Notes.
Projecting Drake Maye’s second-year jump
The Patriots have what every rebuilding team in the NFL desires, a young quarterback who has shown plenty of promise. While his first season as a pro overall were a rollercoaster, Drake Maye had some impressive moments that showcased his franchise QB potential — potential the organization is hoping will be unlocked even further with veteran offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels returning into the fold.
The stage is therefore set for Maye to make the famous second-year jump and to further establish himself as one of the best young quarterbacks in the game. What can realistically be expected out of the sophomore passer, though?
In order to answer what question, we took a look at close to 50 starter-level quarterbacks since 2011 — the advent of the rookie wage scale — and compared the statistical development between their rookie and sophomore years. We understand this methodology is not perfect in predicting what Maye’s second season as Patriots QB will look like, but it gives some historical context as to what that Year 2 jump looked like through the years.
With that in mind, here is a projection using averages of the 49 QBs we looked at.
The numbers presented here are, as noted above, along the lines of the average statistical development of our sample size of quarterbacks. Let’s take completion percentage as an example, with the improvement between rookie and sophomore seasons at 1.48 percent.
“Average” is the key word here: some passers did not hit that mark or saw their completion rate drop, while others improved by more than those 1.48 percent. The
Buffalo Bills’ Josh Allen and the
Cincinnati Bengals’ Joe Burrow, for example, increased their completion percentages by 6.0 and 5.1 percent, respectively.
Maye ending up in those spheres would be a pleasant surprise, especially considering that he already completed passes at a fairly high rate in 2024. However, even minor improvement — which seems realistic in a Josh McDaniels offense — might provide a boost to the Patriots’ passing game.
The same is true for other statistics as well. Maye had touchdown and interception percentages of 4.4 and 3.0 percent as a rookie, for example. Interestingly enough, both averages increase with our sample size QBs: 0.73 percent for the TD rate, and 0.01 percent in the INT department. Using those numbers, Maye would finish 2025 with 24 touchdowns and 14 interceptions.
The second number in particular seems concerning, but there have been plenty of examples through the years of passers cutting back on picks between rookie and sophomore years. The biggest improvements in that regard come courtesy of Deshaun Watson (-2.1%) and Christian Ponder (-2.0%).
Another area worth looking at is running the football, a key element of Maye’s game. Projecting growth here is a bit tricky, though, because running the football is not like passing it: not only is it statistically less efficient to do so, it also is more dependent on context.
The following numbers therefore need to be taken discussed further.
As a starting point, let’s look at Drake Maye’s 54 recorded carries in 2024. Of those, 45 were classified as scrambles, with the rest split between designed runs or sneaks (3), kneel-downs (2) and aborted snaps (4).
How those numbers will develop with a new offensive coordinator and, ideally, improved pass protection up front remains to be seen. Maye cutting down on scrambles and therefore decreasing his number of carries per game from 4.2 in 2025 is certainly possible — something QBs such as Joe Burrow (-1.2), Trevor Lawrence (-0.6) and even Josh Allen (-0.6) did as they gained more confidence in their surroundings.
Then again, there have been a lot of teams who really started embracing their quarterbacks’ dual-threat abilities from Year 1 to Year 2. Players like Jalen Hurts (+5.1) and Justin Fields (+4.7) saw massive increases in runs per game.
Where Maye will end up on this spectrum remains to be seen. He does have the natural ability to effectively run the football, but the Patriots are likely to focus on passing the ball first and foremost rather than having their most important player run it more than necessary — something Mike Vrabel said himself during his introductory press conference.
“We have to be a very efficient passing football team,” he explained. “When you look at statistically what wins in the National Football League, our ability to affect the other team’s quarterback and our ability to provide for an efficient quarterback and passing game is a high contributor to success.”
Left guard rotation
The Patriots are not yet in the purely competitive phase of their roster construction, so any and all observations coming out of Foxborough need to be taken with a grain of salt. That said, the following picture caught our eye:
Drake Maye and first-round left tackle Will Campbell are in focus, but more interesting than that might be the left guard position. In this one particular instance, it is being manned by veteran Wes Schweitzer, who was signed by the Patriots to a one-year free agency deal this offseason.
The 31-year-old is one of the most experienced offensive linemen on New England’s roster, and has played all three spots on the interior. However, he has not played left guard in a game since his 2020 season in Washington.
Nonetheless, Schweitzer has been a regular in the spot this offseason.
Defense ‘not missing a beat’ with Terrell Williams sidelined
The Patriots have entered the third phase of offseason workouts with defensive coordinator Terrell Williams still sidelined; the 50-year-old remains situated in Detroit after experiencing a medical scare earlier this spring. Despite the team having to change some of its responsibilities on this side of the ball, the process as a whole has been smooth according to defensive lineman Milton Williams.
“It’s been good,” the free agency pickup said. “He’s been talking to us on Zoom, communicating with us — how he’s been feeling, what’s been going on, saying he’s doing better and he’s going to see us soon. But still, I don’t think we missed a beat yet. Just kind of installing our scheme throughout this whole time, and just trying to get familiar with it.”
During Williams’ absence, inside linebackers coach Zak Kuhr took over as interim DC. According to Williams, the role is mostly a vocal one.
“He’s the one doing the most speaking in the defensive room,” he explained. “So, I’m pretty sure when Coach T comes back he will resume that role of commander in the room when the whole defense is in there.”
Second-round signing holdup
The Patriots have signed a majority of their draft picks already, with only three of the 11 rookies left to be accounted for. Besides first-round offensive tackle Will Campbell and fourth-round safety Craig Woodson, second-round running back TreVeyon Henderson also has yet to put pen to paper.
He is in good company from a league-wide perspective. According to salary cap analyst Miguel Benzan, only
2 of 32 second-rounders have signed their deals so far — a rate of 6.25 percent that clearly trails behind the draft’s other rounds.
What’s the issue? Guaranteed salaries.
Earlier this offseason, the
Houston Texans made wide receiver Jayden Higgins the first second-rounder in NFL history to have his entire four-year rookie contract fully guaranteed. Higgins was selected 34th overall, and it seems the players picked in his vicinity are now also fighting for a similar contractual setup.
Among them might be Henderson, who the Patriots picked at No. 38.
Two Patriots at NFLPA Rookie Premiere
The annual NFLPA Rookie Premiere took place in Los Angeles this week, and two members of the Patriots were represented: the aforementioned TreVeyon Henderson and fellow Day 2 pick Kyle Williams, the wide receiver out of
Washington State.
The event itself is more of an initiation meeting that allows rookie players to get a first glimpse at the business side of playing in the NFL. The most interesting observation from the outside looking in is Henderson and Williams wearing the all-navy look the team seemingly was phasing out last season for the photo opportunity.
Big step toward the new training facility
The Patriots, who received bad grades in back-to-back NFLPA surveys, are investing big in a new state-of-the-art training facility adjacent to Gillette Stadium. This week, the project celebrated its topping out, with the final steel beam placed upon the structure.
Patriots owner Robert Kraft was in attendance for the ceremony, as were head coach Mike Vrabel and EVP of player personnel Eliot Wolf as well as quarterback Drake Maye and cornerback Christian Gonzalez. The facility is set to open next spring.
Another look at the Patriots’ schedule
As previously discussed, the Patriots are projected to be facing one of the easiest schedules in the NFL this fall. Adding to its relative easiness are two other factors: the team’s travel mileage and net rest differential.
The first is quite simple: looking how much the team will have to travel over the course of the 2025 season. The Patriots, who are set to travel
12,547 miles between September and January according to Bill Speros of bookies.com, are ranked sixth-lowest in this category and far closer to the last-placed Cincinnati Bengals (8,753) than the top-ranked
Los Angeles Chargers (37,086).
As for rest differential, the Patriots are also in a good position as the following
breakdown from Sharp Football Analysis illustrates:
Sharp Football Analysis
The Patriots will be facing one team coming off its bye when they go up against the
Tampa Bay Buccaneers in Week 10 (-7). However, they also play the Cincinnati Bengals in Week 12 off a mini bye (+3) as well as the Buffalo Bills in Week 15 off their own bye week (+6).
Their resulting +2 net rest differential is tied for 14th in the league.
Patriots returning to primetime
After playing only two standalone contests during the 2024 season, and just one primetime game all year — a Thursday night matchup with the
New York Jets in Week 3 — the Patriots will get more opportunities this year to present themselves to a national audience. In total, their schedule features three primetime games: Sunday night at the Buffalo Bills in Week 5; Thursday night versus the New York Jets in Week 11; Monday night against the
New York Giants in Week 13.
“That’s still one of our top brands,” explained NFL vice president of broadcasting Mike North. “Obviously, they have a quarterback in place that they are certainly hoping will be there for a decade, and obviously a storyline with [Mike Vrabel] coming in. Looked for a minute at, ‘Does the Patriots at Titans game, Coach Vrabel returns, have to find itself into a national window?’ Considered it. Didn’t lock it in. And on the final version, the way it spun out, it didn’t happen to end up in one.
“But still three national television games for the Patriots — a Sunday night, a Monday night, a Thursday night. A staple of the primetime schedule for decades and still really one of the top brands in the league, so still find their way in some national television windows and as always a chance to play themselves into more as a result of flexible scheduling.”
Wrap-up thoughts on the schedule release
NFL schedule release is arguably the biggest date on the calendar for the 32 teams’ social media departments. Some of the videos produced for the occasion are impressively elaborate, just like the Patriots’ own in 2024.
This year, the team opted to do two release videos. One featured a group of players doing an egg drop challenge under the supervision of backup quarterback Joshua Dobbs (although the fact that he is an aerospace engineering major was probably lost on the casual observer). The other video, meanwhile, was branded as an “emergency press conference” featuring Dave Portnoy, the founder of Barstool Sports.
That particular video, which was posted right at the schedule release and ahead of the other one, was curious. Not only was the setup simplistic and the script seemingly non-existent — a drastic change to the
Good Will Hunting-style video produced the previous year — Portnoy himself also is an odd choice, to say the least.
While he is an outspoken Patriots fan who at one point even got arrested for protesting Tom Brady’s Deflategate suspension at NFL headquarters in New York, he is a controversial character. We are not talking about his political leanings here, but rather the fact that he a) has a history of sexist and divisive comments, and b) has been the subject of allegations of sexual assault and harassment stemming from a pair of Business Insider articles in 2021 and 2022 (Portnoy later sued the publication for defamation but neither his lawsuit nor a subsequent appeal were successful).
The Patriots, meanwhile, have branded themselves as a strong opponent against sexual violence through the years. From that perspective, aligning with Portnoy seems like a questionable decision.
Setting up the week ahead
The Patriots have entered the third and final phase of their voluntary offseason workout program, meaning that organized team activities are right around the corner. This coming week will see three such sessions: the team will hit the practice fields on Monday (5/19), Tuesday (5/20) and Thursday (5/22).
Tuesday’s session will also be accompanied by media availability, even though the details have not yet been announced by the team.
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