The NFL’s Offensive Rookie of the Year race in 2025 runs through the NFC South. It’s one of the more unpredictable elements of an already wild season. What began preseason seeming like a lock for running back Ashton Jeanty has now settled in to being a two-horse race between a pair of wide receivers, both in the same division, fighting down the stretch to see who can claim the award. Offensive Rookie of the Year might not be the NFL’s most coveted reward, but it’s something only a player has once chance to ever take home.
Now we look at No. 8 pick
Tetairoa McMillan of the Carolina Panthers, and No. 19 pick
Emeka Egbuka from the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, both of whom have resumes worthy of the award, both are quickly cementing themselves as forces in the league — but playing different roles, and thriving in different ways.
Tetairoa McMillan
54 receptions, 748 yards, 4 TD — FedEx Air & Ground Player of the Week (Week 11)
Projected: 83 receptions, 1,156 yards, 6 TD
The Panthers bucked every draft analyst by deciding to take a 1st round receiver for the second straight year, rather than address their pass rush. Early returns are showing they made a franchise-defining decision, and the correct one.
McMillan and
Bryce Young’s “Cali Connection” was touted by Carolina shortly following the draft, but the two former high school rivals has proven it was more than a marketing pitch. From working together in the offseason, to flourishing together on the field — Bryce and Tet are quickly becoming a young duo to watch in the NFL.
What we’ve seen so far from McMillan is, well, everything. He has the deep threat potential to be an X-receiver on the outside, and while his top-end speed doesn’t create massive levels of separation, his ability to contest the ball at the catch point or make circus catches with defenders draped on him mean that at the very least teams need to respect the potential that he could create an explosive play any time the ball is thrown his direction. This was one of the subtle reasons
Rico Dowdle had so much running success during his mid-season breakout, with McMillan freezing safeties and forcing them to play over the top — rather the climb the box to assist in run support.
While those explosive plays haven’t always materialized, McMillan has become the best critical down receiver on the Panthers. He’s caught 44 passes for first downs in 11 games, often on key third down plays. What Tet lacks in nuance as a route runner he makes up for in raw intuition, routinely finding the soft spot in zone and making big catches. There’s also an element of shared accountability, with both McMillan and Young acknowledging when they’ve missed a play, sharing discussions on the sideline on how to get better, and growing together.
A rejuvenated, aggressive downfield passing game the Panthers showed against Atlanta could manifest itself as a huge close to the season for Tetairoa McMillan as he makes his case for OROY this season.
Emeka Egbuka
45 receptions, 717 yards, 6 TD
Projected: 77 receptions, 1,219 yards, 10 TD
This was another major surprise from the draft. Receiver was viewed as one of the least-important positions needing an upgrade for Tampa Bay, but the Bucs front office understood that their offensive identity hinged on its receivers, and there was a strong chance the team was relying on a house of cards. That came to pass in 2025 with both
Mike Evans and
Chris Godwin dealing with injuries, making the team’s decision to take
Emeka Egbuka prescient.
Initially seen as a hopeful third option with upside for the future, Ebuka has become one of the best deep threat receivers in the NFL. His 15.9 yards-per-reception is tied for first in the league with
Jaxson Smith-Njigba among receivers with over 40 catches this season. It’s the mix of both explosiveness and consistency that has set Ebuka apart.
The most remarkable element to Egbuka’s arrival in the NFL has been his ability to integrate into an established playoff offense and carve out a niche for himself. This might seem like something that’s easy to achieve, but in reality it’s far more difficult for a receiver to find a place — rather than have one explicitly built for him.
It’s a huge testament to the route running and separation Egbuka creates that
Baker Mayfield has made him such a pivotal part of the offense. There’s a level of respect that comes with generating explosive plays with a rookie that comes from trust, and that’s shown itself time and time again this season. If the Bucs make the playoffs in 2025 (and the odds are in their favor), it will come down largely to Egbuka’s ability to step up and become a difference maker.
Who has the edge?
It’s a very, very close race. There is no question that Egbuka had a lock on this award a month ago, but some nagging injuries have crept in. Meanwhile McMillan is starting to break out, and with the Panthers seemingly opening up their passing offense more to take shots downfield, there’s a very big chance that Tet could pass Egbuka statistically before the season is out.
Ultimately what might define this award is how the teams end up. It’s not necessarily fair to distill an individual award and make it about the team as a whole, but that does have sway with voters at the end of the season. The NFC South could turn into a dead heat, with the two Panthers vs. Buccaneers games towards the end of the season determining who will win the division, and who will have an early vacation.
Regardless of who gets the nod, we are seeing two future superstars spreading their wings in the NFL at a very early stage in their career. The future is bright in the NFC South at receiver, now it simply becomes about which team is better at pouring gasoline on the fire to become great.
on 10+ yard throws vs Atlanta
10/14
