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C.A.L.C.U.L.A.T.O.R Rankings, Week 8: Clear tiers are developing

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First let’s deal with the elephant in the room on this week’s rankings. The Green Bay Packers are basically flat, and actually slightly down, despite an impressive win in Pittsburgh that has the league discussing Tucker Kraft as the best tight end in the game and Jordan Love as an MVP candidate. So how does that happen?

This is partially because according to CALCULATOR, the Packers were already good. So although winning did boost many of their underlying metrics – DVOA, EPA, PFF grade, point differential all improved – there’s not that much room for the Packers to move up. Plus, while all of their efficiency metrics improved, their odds of winning the Super Bowl actually went DOWN, from +700 to +750.

Now, why did that happen? Kansas City stayed flat as the odds-on favorite at +500, but Detroit shot past Green Bay from +800 to +700, even though they didn’t play! It’s not a big change and the Packers and Lions are still the two favorites in the NFC, but it was just enough to essentially cancel out the Packers’ other underlying gains.

It might seem bizarre that a team on a bye could surpass a team that put up a huge victory, and it honestly kind of is. It’s not like we gained any insight into future strength of schedule for either team. Cam Skattebo was seriously hurt, but both the Lions and Packers face the Giants. Both face the Vikings and Bears twice. Both face the Eagles. Perhaps you could ding the Packers a bit for their late season game against a rapidly improving Ravens team, but Detroit doesn’t exactly face a cakewalk, with games against the very good Rams and a Cowboys squad that’s terrible on defense, yes, but exceptional on offense. Let’s chalk this up to noise. As John Maynard Keynes once said, “markets can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent.”

As for your big movers and shakers, we all now firmly believe in Indianapolis as they move up seven points into the elite 100 tier with the Chiefs, Lions, Packers, and Rams. Yes, it was just a victory over the Titans, but the Colts aren’t just winning close; they are destroying weaker competition. Their offensive line is elite, Jonathan Taylor is having a career year with 850 yards on the ground and 12 touchdowns to date, and the only tight end who might be better than Tucker Kraft is Tyler Warren.

I was not able to include the Thursday Night Football game in week 9 yet, but keep an eye on Baltimore. The Ravens were beaten to heck, played a brutal schedule, and kept finding ways to lose close games, but nothing gets you healthy like consecutive games against the Bears and Dolphins. Now they are only 1.5 games back of Pittsburgh in the AFC North, they have the Vikings, Jets, Bengals (x2), and Browns down the stretch, and Lamar is healthy. They’re up seven points this week before incorporating Thursday’s win, which should push them into the top half.

Our big fallers include the Cowboys, who were stymied by an elite Denver defense but more importantly, couldn’t do anything to stop a pathetic Denver offense. They dropped almost eight points. And the Packers’ opponents next week, the Carolina Panthers, dropped six points down into the 40s as they were blown out and beaten up by the Buffalo Bills under injured backup quarterback Andy Dalton. They likely have Bryce Young back this week, but it is no sure thing.

But the biggest fallers were the schizophrenic Atlanta Falcons, who lost to the Dolphins(!) with Michael Penix injured and Kirk Cousins forced to play. Woof. They fell by more than eight points, and while you could and should blame most of that loss on the quarterback, I would like to point one thing out. Despite employing a terrifying running attack featuring Bijan Robinson, the Falcons have the lowest play action rate in the NFL, which is dumb.

It's weird that Michael Penix has the lowest play-action rate this season, right?And Kirk Cousins had just 1 play-action snap the last 2 weeks another year removed from his Achilles injury after ranking 3rd with a 27.7% PA rate in his last Vikings season.Does OC Zac Robinson hate play-action?

— Scott Spratt (@scottspratt.bsky.social) 2025-10-30T18:09:07.784Z
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And here are the rest of your CALCULATOR rankings:

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Source: https://www.acmepackingcompany.com/...-r-rankings-week-8-clear-tiers-are-developing
 
College Football Week 10 Discussion Thread

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We’ll get into the college football games this week a little later in this article, but first, I wanted to bring up something that will probably impact the Green Bay Packers this offseason. A LOT of college football head coaches are getting fired.

Open Power 4 Jobs​

  • LSU
  • Florida
  • Penn State
  • Virginia Tech
  • Arkansas
  • Stanford
  • UCLA
  • Oklahoma State

Already, there are eight openings in the top four conferences of college football. These jobs pay very well. For perspective, even Virginia Tech, a mid-level ACC team, has approved $30 million per year in additional spending over the next three seasons on the football team. I would be surprised if they didn’t spend around $10 million per year on their next head coach. Mind you, first-time head coaches in the NFL make around $3-4 million per season.

I was told on good authority that Matt LaFleur’s first contract with the Packers was under $5 million per year. It’s been reported that Brian Callahan, the first coach fired in the NFL in 2025, made around $3 million per season in his buyout (NFL buyouts are typically in full). NFL coaching salaries are not publicly disclosed in the same way as NFL player salaries, because of the salary cap and the NFLPA’s league-wide updates, or college football coaching salaries, because they are matters of public record since most major programs are part of the public school system.

Remember, new Packers president and CEO Ed Policy didn’t extend either Matt LaFleur or general manager Brian Gutekunst this offseason. In the case of at least LaFleur, his camp would be dumb to not use the exploding market in college football as leverage.

This wouldn’t be the first time that the Packers have had a coach flirt with the college world. Remember, Mike McCarthy was floated as a name that could be interested in the Texas Longhorns opening back in 2013. Mid-season the next year, McCarthy signed a multi-year extension with the team. This is just how the business is done.

This is your warning to not be stressed out when a rumor pops up in November about LaFleur being on some team’s “hot list.” He’s a young, successful coach who was in college football as recently as 2014. Because of the volume of jobs that are going to be open, without the pipeline of talent providing new rising talents at the college level, schools are not going to be afraid of being told no several times when they pursue candidates this year. Every booster thinks he’s going to pay for the big fish, so no stone is going to be left unturned by search committees.

Make no mistake, though: LaFleur is probably going to get PAID this offseason and ensure multi-year job security.

Power 4 Jobs to Watch​

  • Auburn
  • Florida State
  • Wisconsin
  • Baylor
  • North Carolina
  • Maryland
  • Kentucky
  • NC State
  • Michigan State

Beyond the jobs that are already open, these are jobs that have a good chance of opening between now and the end of the season. In total, that’s 17 (!) Power 4 jobs, before poaching, retirements, etc. ever become a factor. Like I said, there’s a lot of desperation in college football right now and a lot of money.

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Now, let’s get into our regularly scheduled programming, covering the top prospects available (via the consensus draft board) in top-25 matchups. We’ll also be tracking where the Packers send their scouts when that information becomes available this weekend.

#9 Vanderbilt @ #20 Texas (11 am CT, ABC)​

  • Vanderbilt
    • #111 TE Eli Stowers
  • Texas
    • #30 LB Anthony Hill Jr.
    • #45 OL Trevor Goosby
    • #62 CB Malik Muhammad
    • #98 TE Jack Endries
    • #137 RB Quintrevion Wisner
    • #156 S Michael Taaffe
    • #162 ED Trey Moore
    • #209 RB C.J. Baxter
    • #246 OL D.J. Campbell

What a matchup between low and high expectations. Coming into the year, the belief was that Arch Manning was going to be the top quarterback in this draft class. Now, it’s extremely clear that he’s not even going to declare. The Longhorns were hoping to go on a national championship run, but currently sit with a 6-2 record and are coming off back-to-back overtime games against unranked Kentucky and Mississippi State.

Meanwhile, Vanderbilt has beaten ranked LSU and Missouri in their last two games, despite having few NFL prospects on their roster. If Vanderbilt can clear Texas, they have a good chance of finishing the season 11-1, leading to a likely rematch against Alabama — the one team they have lost to this season — in the SEC Championship Game.

#17 Cincinnati @ #24 Utah (9:15 pm CT, ESPN)​

  • Cincinnati
    • #93 DT Dontay Corleone
    • #103 LB Jake Golday
    • #173 TE Joe Royer
  • Utah
    • #7 OL Spencer Fano
    • #23 OL Caleb Lomu
    • #140 LB Lander Barton
    • #168 S Tao Johnson
    • #184 ED John Henry Daley

A lot of people tuned out Cincinnati when they fell 20-17 to Nebraska to start the year, but they have been on a tear since then and come into this game at 7-1 with a perfect 5-0 record in Big 12 play. Their top player by far is nose tackle Dontay Corleone, who will have the tough task of going against an elite Utah offensive line this week. If you stay up for the game, keep an eye on that matchup.

Utah isn’t a pushover, either. They lost to a loaded Texas Tech team, which is up near the top of college football in terms of transfer portal spending, and dropped a rivalry game to undefeated BYU by three points. After the BYU loss, they responded by beating Colorado 53-7. Colorado had NEGATIVE yards at the half of that game, when the score was 43-0. Utah eventually called off the dogs and played their backups, but still outgained Colorado 587 yards to just 140.

Where Packers scouts have been in 2025​


Week 1

  • Texas @ Ohio State
  • LSU @ Clemson
  • Marshall @ Georgia
  • South Carolina vs. Virginia Tech
  • West Texas A&M @ Western Colorado

Week 3

  • Kansas State @ Arizona
  • Youngstown State @ Michigan State
  • Florida @ LSU
  • Clemson @ Georgia Tech

Week 5


Week 6

  • Penn State @ UCLA
  • Michigan State @ Nebraska
  • Iowa State @ Cincinnati

Week 7


Week 8


Week 9


Week 10

  • Will update.
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Source: https://www.acmepackingcompany.com/...30/college-football-week-10-discussion-thread
 
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