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[Baltimore Orioles]

Félix Bautista returns to mound in Orioles spring training tie

Photo by Greg Fiume/Getty Images

The Orioles and Red Sox played to a 6-6 spring tie. What really matters is the Mountain is back.

There’s nothing that matters so much in spring training as having everyone either stay healthy or get healthy. Monday afternoon’s otherwise-meaningless spring training game tie between the Orioles and the Red Sox had one of these key markers in Birdland. The game marked Félix Bautista’s first time in any kind of game action since his 2023 Tommy John surgery.

Bautista came in for the fifth inning after each of Charlie Morton and Tomoyuki Sugano pitched two scoreless innings. Yes, the fact that Bautista went three-up, three-down means less since he was facing the bottom of a road spring scrub lineup, but still: He got all three batters out, looked good doing it, and it seemed like his arm was fine. That’s what really matters.

On Twitter, The Baltimore Sun’s Matt Weyrich tracked Bautista’s velocity. He was hitting 96-97mph on his fastball and mostly 86-87 on the splitter. After his outing, Bautista told reporters that he expects to be back to 99-100 by the time Opening Day rolls around.

Before the game, manager Brandon Hyde said that he’s going to be careful with Bautista, particularly looking to avoid multi-inning outings and pitching on back-to-back days. That will be a challenge for the bullpen to overcome, but not as much of a challenge as not having Bautista at all.

After his inning, the MASN cameras caught Bautista in the dugout looking emotional about getting back on the mound. “(My first outing is) something I thought about every day,” he said through an interpreter. Bautista even got an Adley Rutschman hug as he finished his inning. They’re still fun.

As for the game itself: The Orioles built a 5-0 lead over the first five innings of the game. Their offense was delivering against the Red Sox even as Morton, Sugano, and Bautista combined to pitch five shutout innings. Rutschman opened the scoring with a first inning home run. With Rutschman OPSing just .631 when batting as a lefty last year, seeing him turn and burn was satisfying, even if it, too, is meaningless.

Heston Kjerstad also had a game of note at the plate, getting on base twice and scoring two runs. During the broadcast, Mike Elias said that he’s looking forward to seeing Kjerstad get a lot of at-bats in the outfield and at designated hitter this season.

The five-run cushion shrunk substantially in the seventh inning. Waiver wire fodder Roansy Contreras, who is out of minor league options, gave up four runs over an inning of work. That’s largely because of giving up two home runs. The Orioles picked up one more run in the bottom of the inning to make it 6-4, then reliever Yaqui Rivera surrendered another pair of runs. That set up the final 6-6 score.

Prior to the game, Hyde delivered some updates on other injured Orioles. Jordan Westburg, who’s been out for several days while dealing with a back issue, could be back on Wednesday. Hyde also said that Gunnar Henderson has “turned the corner” with the soreness in his right side. Hopefully the next update about each of these guys following tomorrow’s day off will be positive as well.

Source: https://www.camdenchat.com/2025/3/3/24377155/orioles-red-sox-game-score-felix-bautista

 

[Baltimore Orioles]

What a healthy Félix Bautista means for the Orioles bullpen

Photo by Jess Rapfogel/Getty Images

With Baltimore’s all-world closer back on the mound, the benefits of his presence will be felt throughout the Orioles bullpen

After 556 days of waiting, recovering and hoping, Félix Bautista finally made his return to the mound yesterday in Sarasota. Any time a major pitcher returns from injury, it’s a big deal. Bautista returning to the Orioles feels all that much bigger of a deal—and not just because of his Mountainous frame.

When the Orioles’ King Félix was at the height of his powers in 2023, the Orioles had a certain aura of invincibility in close games. Despite missing the last month of the season with an elbow injury that ultimately required Tommy John, Bautista took home AL Reliever of the Year. The Mountain put up 110 Ks in 61 IP, putting up a strikeout rate only ever equaled by a select group of receivers. Bautista led a bullpen that guided the Orioles to an AL-best 30-16 record in one-run games.

In 2024, without Bautista holding down the closer role, the Baltimore bullpen took a giant step backwards. After finishing with the fifth-best bullpen ERA (3.55) in 2023, that number ballooned to 4.22 in 2024, giving the O’s a bottom 10 pen. Craig Kimbrel, who was brought in to try and ease the pain of Bautista’s absence, only added to fans’ suffering. The former nine-time All-Star blew six saves in 29 chances and had a 5.33 ERA when the O’s DFA’d him in September.

Baltimore replaced Kimbrel with deadline acquisition Seranthony Domínguez, and while the former Philly provided an upgrade, he was still nowhere near the dominant force that Bautista can be for the O’s. That uncertainty at the back end of the pen saw the Orioles go 14-18 in one-run games.

Bautista coming back restores the mental edge that comes from having an elite closer and gives the Orioles the kind of bullpen depth they lacked in 2024. With the Mountain back, Yennier Cano can return to his role as full-time setup man—the role that transformed him into an All-Star in 2023. For his career, Cano has a 2.35 ERA in the eighth compared to a 4.78 ERA in all other innings. Due to the uncertainty facing the bullpen, only 48% of his innings came in the eighth last season—and with change, Cano’s ERA increased from 2.11 in 2024 to 3.15 in 2025.

The return of his closer also means that Brandon Hyde can turn to his high-leverage relievers earlier in games in 2025. The offseason addition of Andrew Kittredge means that, along with Cano, Domínguez and Gregory Soto, the Orioles have four relievers with closing experience.

That quartet gives Hyde a reliable bridge to Bautista that he can turn to as early as the fifth or sixth inning most games. A great bullpen can shorten games because if you take a lead into the sixth, the game is basically already won. The 2025 Orioles’ bullpen, with Bautista as the centerpiece, has all the makings of one that can shorten games.

The domino effect of Bautista’s return will also have a positive impact on some of Baltimore’s less-heralded bullpen arms. Keegan Akin has been a dependable long reliever for much of the last three seasons, but has shown he struggles in higher leverage situations. In those high leverage situations last year, opponents hit .278 off Akin with a .836 OPS, compared to a .181 average and a .557 OPS in any other situation.

With Bautista holding down the 9th and the group of Cano, Dominguez, Kittredge and Soto taking the lion's share of the opportunities in the seventh and eighth, Akin’s exposure to high leverage situations should be much more limited.

The depth created by Bautista’s presence also means that more volatile relievers like Cionel Pérez and Bryan Baker can be used more judiciously. Both Pérez and Baker have the stuff to be late inning guys, but just aren’t as reliable as you’d like your late inning relievers to be.

Overall, the return of Bautista means this bullpen should be the best pen of the Brandon Hyde/Mike Elias era. That’s good news for an Orioles team that still has World Series aspirations, as a great bullpen is practically a prerequisite for a true pennant contender. Both the Yankees and Dodgers’ bullpens finished in the top 10 for bullpen ERA, and they used those pens to overcome questionable starting pitching depth en route to the World Series.

The Orioles’ bullpen ERA of 4.22 ranked dead last among playoff teams in 2024 and they were one of only three playoff teams with a bullpen ERA above four. With the Yankees trading for Devin Williams, Emmanuel Clase leading baseball’s best bullpen in Cleveland and the Astros, Mariners and Twins all potentially having elite closers, the Orioles needed to upgrade their bullpen if they want to play deep into October.

Bautista’s return to full strength would give the Orioles a chance to return to the ranks of baseball’s most lights out relief corps. Monday’s outing showed he’s well on his way to a full return to form, which means opponents should once again have a mountain to climb when trying to come back against Baltimore’s bullpen.

Source: https://www.camdenchat.com/2025/3/4...re-orioles-felix-bautista-2025-season-bullpen

 

[Baltimore Orioles]

Cedric Mullins is the grizzled veteran of the Orioles lineup. Can he continue to produce?

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He’s fast. He plays great defense. He’s been around a long time. Can Cedric Mullins continue as a productive part of the lineup?

Cedric Mullins debuted with the Baltimore Orioles on August 10, 2018, which makes him the only member of the 2025 roster to appear on that miserable 115-loss team. When the Orioles turned things around, he was touted along with Austin Hays and Anthony Santander as the outfielders who made it through the tough times together. Now he is the only one who remains.

Since his breakout season in 2021, Mullins has put together three pretty similar seasons, overall. An OBP just north of .300, home run numbers in the mid-teens, above-average defense, and a lot of speed on the basepaths. He batted mostly near the bottom of the lineup.

There are plenty of reasons to believe that Mullins will have a similar year in 2025, or maybe a little worse. Like I said, he’s been pretty consistent over the past three seasons. He finally reached the age of 30 last October, which means historically speaking he’s on the down side of his career.

But is there any reason to think he could be better in 2025 than last year? Well, maybe. It has to do with the way he ended last season. Mullins has always tended to be a streaky player, but last year was the extreme version of that. In the first half of the season he looked like toast, to put it nicely. He had an OBP of just .256 and an OPS of .629, which was good for an OPS+ of 76. Just putrid. He managed just 14 walks in 87 games.

Then, in the second half, he came to life. He looked like a completely different player. The team as a whole struggled in the second half, but Mullins was the team’s best hitter. Over the final 60 games of the season, Mullins hit .266/.374/.457.

Just for fun, he was also the team’s best hitter in their pathetic Wild Card series. He socked a single, a double, and a home run over the two games. I was at game two of that series and his home run was the only moment of joy in the entire game.

If Mullins can replicate, or come close to replicating his second-half performance, he’ll be on track to have his best season in years. Of course that is a tall, and maybe impossible, order.

One thing that will help him find success is if he is limited to facing mostly right-handed pitchers. He has always struggled against lefties and last year was worse than usual. His wRC+ against lefties in 2024 was just 43. The league average is 100. That’s very bad. But manager Brandon Hyde is no dummy, and he managed Mullins like a guy who shouldn’t see lefties very often. Mullins had just 97 at-bats against lefties last year, his lowest number since the shortened 2020 season.

There can be an argument that the defense Mullins provides is worth having him out there even with those terrible numbers against lefties. But that is an argument for a guy whose wRC+ is 75, not 43. Colton Cowser also hits lefties worse than righties but was much better against them than Mullins.

I really like Cedric Mullins and I want him to have a huge year. But there are a lot of things that need to go right. He needs to stave off the age curve, avoid prolonged slumps, improve his numbers against lefties (or forgo facing them altogether), and keep himself healthy. Does the ZiPS projection system believe he can do just that? Let’s see:

ZiPS Projection: 138 G, 23 2B, 16 HR, 26 SB, .240/.308/.401, 2.8 WAR

Honestly, that’s not bad! It’s very in line with his last three seasons when his numbers were:

Season	WAR	G	2B	HR	SB	CS	BB	SO	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS
2022	4.0	156	32	16	34	10	47	126	.258	.318	.403	.721
2023	2.8	116	23	15	19	3	43	101	.233	.305	.416	.721
2024	2.6	147	16	18	32	6	41	98	.234	.305	.405	.710

Standard Batting Table

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 3/3/2025.

Mullins is known as a base stealer, so let’s focus on that for our cases of over and under. ZiPS has him pegged six fewer stolen bases than he had last year, though it also has him playing in fewer games.

The case for the over​

Mullins has stolen at least 30 bases in three of the last four seasons. The year he didn’t he missed time with injuries throughout the year. If Mullins can stay healthy and get on base at least as much as he did last year, he should clear 26 stolen bases easily. It would be unusual if he didn’t. Statcast measured him last year to still have excellent sprint speed and baserunning skills, and anyone who has watched him knows he thrives on the bases.

The case for the under​

Just like the rest of us, Cedric Mullins isn’t getting any younger. Speed is a skill that diminishes with age. Mullins has proven himself to be a player who gets on base just a bit over 30% of the time, which is the bare minimum acceptable level. If he is unable to sustain that he won’t have as many chances to steal bases in the first place. And if he starts to lose playing time due to performance, that’s another blow to his chances. And that doesn’t even take into account any possible injuries.

Source: https://www.camdenchat.com/2025/3/4/24377336/orioles-projections-cedric-mullins

 

[Baltimore Orioles]

Know Your Orioles 40-man: Luis González

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The well-traveled 33-year-old, in his second go-round in the organization, was a surprising but intriguing addition to the Orioles’ 40-man roster this winter.

Luis González is a story in perseverance.

The 33-year-old left-hander has toiled in pro baseball for 15 seasons without so much as a cup of coffee in the majors. He’s pitched for teams in five different countries and three different continents. He could have called it quits any number of times over the years, but he kept plugging away. And as of four months ago, he’s now a full-fledged member of the Orioles’ 40-man roster, just a phone call away from making his long-awaited debut.

Just goes to show you, kids: never give up on your dreams.

González’s professional career began a full decade and a half ago when he signed with the Phillies out of the Dominican Republic at age 18. The Phils cut him loose in 2012 after he failed to impress in short-season ball, and the Orioles, led by Dan Duquette at the time, signed González to a minor league deal.

If you don’t remember González’s previous stint in the Orioles’ organization — all seven years of it — you can be forgiven. The lefty seemed destined for a life as a roster-filler non-prospect, as evidenced by the fact that he spent three consecutive seasons pitching at then-High-A Frederick until he was 25 years old.

During that time, the O’s pulled the plug on González as a starting pitcher, where he’d been largely ineffective, and converted him to relief. He had at least a modest bit of success in his new role, eking onto MLB Pipeline’s 2018 Orioles prospects list at #28 in a threadbare O’s farm system. Even then, Pipeline’s profile of González cautioned about his “fringy command” and fluctuating velocity.

González survived the transition to a new O’s front office, as the Mike Elias regime kept him in the organization after replacing Duquette, but a disastrous 2019 season — a combined 7.45 ERA between Double-A Bowie and Triple-A Norfolk — spelled the end of his initial Orioles era. At that point there was no reason to think that González would still be playing professional baseball six years later, much less earning a spot on an MLB roster.

Still, González never gave up on chasing his dream, no matter where it took him. And goodness, it took him all over the place. He pitched in Japan during the 2020 pandemic. He returned to the States in 2021 for an unsuccessful stint in the Giants’ system, then jetted to Europe in 2022 to play for Unipolsai Fortitudo Bologna of Italian Serie A, a league I had no idea even existed. (That was a fun little Baseball Reference rabbit hole to go down.) González served as the closer for a Bologna team that went 40-4.

In 2023, González added the Mexican League to his extensive foreign résumé, posting a 1.69 ERA in 39 games for the Sultanes de Monterrey. That was the fifth country in which he’s pitched professionally, including his six seasons of winter ball in the Dominican.

The Orioles never lost track of their world-traveling former farmhand, and his overseas success convinced them to bring González back to the organization last year. They stashed him at Norfolk all season and he worked a career-high 44 games. While his 4.50 ERA didn’t wow anyone, he continued a career-long trend by striking out a lot of guys — 10.7 K/9 — and made great strides in his control. He slashed his walk rate to just 1.8 BB/9, a huge improvement from his career minor league mark of 3.9.

González’s frequent Triple-A battery mate, Maverick Handley, raved about the southpaw’s stuff. “[He has] a hoppy four-seam with some oomph on it,” Handley said. “He’s got a little gyro slider ... and then he picked up a splitter halfway through the year and started throwing it, and it was awesome.”

González opened enough eyes for the Orioles to take the unusual step of adding a 33-year-old with no MLB experience to their 40-man roster last November, bringing him to the doorstep of achieving his lifelong goal. If González finally makes it to the bigs this season, he would join a very short list of O’s pitchers to make their MLB debut at age 33 or older, joining only knuckleballer Mickey Jannis in 2021 and two longtime Nippon Professional Baseball hurlers, Koji Uehara in 2009 and (presumably) Tomoyuki Sugano this year.

“I know that there’s many at this age who have had big league careers, but I think also it says a lot that at this age you still can play and you can contribute,” González told MASN’s Roch Kubatko. “It feels different and it feels that I’m a lot closer this time.” González has made two appearances so far in Grapefruit League action, giving up a run and walking three in two innings.

He’s not a prospect anymore. He never really was. But there’s a chance that González, after 15 years of roaming the baseball wilderness and experiencing all the ups and downs that the sport has to offer, could at long last become a major leaguer this year. And that’s pretty darn cool.

Source: https://www.camdenchat.com/2025/3/5/24377840/orioles-40-man-roster-luis-gonzalez

 

[Baltimore Orioles]

Gunnar Henderson has intercostal strain, still “very hopeful” for Orioles Opening Day roster

Photo by Kevin C. Cox/Getty Images

This is not a good update, although it could be worse.

Several days after Gunnar Henderson left a spring training game early, the Orioles revealed a diagnosis for his injury. Manager Brandon Hyde told reporters after Wednesday’s game that Henderson has a mild intercostal strain. Hyde said that he is “very, very hopeful” as far as Henderson being on the Opening Day roster.

Absent any other context, that’s a positive development for Henderson. The manager is very hopeful he’ll be on the Opening Day roster. It’s less positive because, up until right now, that wasn’t even a question. Nothing had been indicated about the injury to make Opening Day up in the air. Just two days ago, the story was that Henderson had “turned a corner” or some such. Apparently it was not turned enough.

The good news, such as it is, is that Opening Day is still 22 days away. Even with the Orioles slow-playing his injury recovery, as Hyde described it on Wednesday, they can give him a week more off and there’s still a couple of weeks for him to get back into game shape for the season. Henderson suffered the injury after leaping to make a catch in a spring training game last week.

Being a particular sick freak remembering random Orioles injury diagnoses of the past, I remember a time where Kevin Gausman was said to have an intercostal strain and then it turned out to be that he had pneumonia. The Orioles of that era being what they were, they then rushed him back from that pneumonia recovery on short rest to start a game against the then-powerhouse Tigers.

I hope it’s actually an accurate diagnosis this time and that Henderson can heal smoothly from here on. Things are fine for now. If there is another update indicating a further delay, that will be more of a problem and Hyde will probably be less hopeful about Opening Day.

In other Orioles injury news, Hyde spoke about reliever Andrew Kittredge, the team’s only bullpen signing over the offseason. The 34-year-old Kittredge pitched in one game this spring before coming down with soreness in his left knee. Hyde told reporters that Kittredge has gotten imaging done and the team will seek multiple opinions about what to do about it.

My rule of thumb is that if the first opinion was good news, there wouldn’t be a need for multiple opinions. Even more zoomed out than that, if the injury is mild enough, you don’t need any opinions, it just gets better in a short timeframe. It would not shock me if Kittredge is not in the Opening Day plans now. That’s one way the Orioles might have something of a solution for the “What are we supposed to do with all of these pitchers?” issue.

Source: https://www.camdenchat.com/2025/3/5/24378755/orioles-injury-news-gunnar-henderson-andrew-kittredge

 

[Baltimore Orioles]

Which spring training dark horses have boosted their stock the most thus far?

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Not all of these players will end up grabbing a roster spot, but they’ve shown enough to be interesting.

Last season, injuries hurt the Orioles, and not just in the literal “ouch” way. At one point, seven pitchers were on the IL, and roster fixtures like Jordan Westburg, Ryan Mountcastle, Ramón Urías and Jorge Mateo all had IL stints. For reasons yet unknown, All-Star catcher Adley Rutschman struggled to a .207/.282/.303/.585 slash line after the break, when the team as a whole went 33-33, the offense falling off the table.

One of the lessons learned from last year, it seems, is that depth—on both the position player and the pitching sides—may help the ‘25 Orioles weather the health problems that dragged them down last fall. Given the grind of a 162-game season, a winning team has to rely on lots of fringe players to pitch in: you never know when you’ll find the next Jorge Mateo or Albert Suárez to save the day.

Depth means several intense battles for roster spots this spring. So what dark horse candidates with an outside chance to make the roster boosted their stock most in spring training so far? Here are five, broken down by position group: catcher, infielder, outfielder, starting pitcher, bullpen.

Not all of these are players have a hold on a rotation spot, far from it, but all of them have shown some of the most interesting stuff in camp so far.

Catcher: Samuel Basallo

No, he’s not exactly an under-the-radar player, but Samuel Basallo is a non-roster invite playing this spring with something to prove. For the Orioles’ No. 1 prospect, this spring is about showing his preternatural maturity at 20 years of age, his ability to hit major-league pitchers and to call a major-league game.

So far: he’s delivering. Pitchers have praised his poise behind the plate, and the bat is as advertised. On February 27, Basallo hit a bomb that sailed over the scoreboard, shown here—one of his “Top 3,” he said, for sure.

In ten spring plate appearances thus far, Basallo is averaging .375 and OPS’ing 1.083. He’s not playing for a roster spot—the catcher position is sewn up, between Adley Rutschman and backup backstop Gary Sánchez. But Basallo is definitely hastening the day of his big league call-up.

Infielder: Emmanuel Rivera

If spring training ABs to date were a true indicator of coaches’ preferences, your 2025 Orioles infield would consist of Emmanuel Rivera at 3B, Luis Vázquez at SS, Vimael Machín at 2B and Coby Mayo at 1B. Don’t go ahead and buy those jerseys just yet.

At the same time, bumps and bruises sustained by the regular O’s infielders may create an opening for a dark horse to get some starts. The 28-year-old Rivera is interesting because, despite being a NRI, he actually has something of an MLB track record. Drafted by KC in the middle rounds back in 2015, Rivera has a career .244/.306/.369/.676 slash line in 340 games over four seasons of play. Not earth-shattering numbers, but last season, Rivera performed in a small sample size with Baltimore, hitting .313 with four home runs, 14 RBI and a .948 OPS in 27 games.

Worth seeing more? Probably. He’s tagging the ball this spring, with an .813 OPS and 2 home runs in 17 AB’s, including this one:

Outfielder: Dylan Beavers

Baltimore’s farm system might not be ranked No. 1 in baseball anymore, but that doesn’t mean they don’t have riches. The 33rd overall pick in 2022, Dylan Beavers is one of the latest Elias first-round picks to reach Triple A. Despite a big frame (6’4”, 206 lbs) the 23-year-old is still a little green, with just six games in Norfolk last year after slashing .241/.343/.413 with 15 home runs and 31 stolen bases at Double-A.

It’s true, the Orioles have had a tough time getting their young outfielders playing time over the last few years—cue grumbling about Kyle Stowers and Heston Kjerstad here. The current outfield remains a crowded group, with newcomers Tyler O’Neill, Dylan Carlson, Ramón Laureano and Daz Cameron added to the mix. But before getting named in this week’s round of cuts, Beavers impressed with a .375/.444/.875/1.319 line in ten plate appearances, including one home run. Beavers is just about knocking on the door of the majors.

While we’re at it, Dylan Carlson is another interesting case. The switch-hitting outfielder is a former first-round prospect whose hitting has stalled out since a stellar rookie season in 2021. He’s expected to begin the year at Triple-A Norfolk, but should an injury arise, Carlson is worth watching as a potential call-up: he can play all three positions and has a good eye for the strike zone (career 9% walk rate). He was a low-cost, high-potential signing for the Orioles with a chance to turn his career around.

Starting Pitcher: LHP Cade Povich

Cade Povich seems to pitch better when he’s inhabiting the persona of his alter ego, “Slim,” and thus far in spring, Slim is shoving. In five innings across two starts, the 25-year-old lefty hasn’t allowed a run and he’s also struck out seven, including this stunning six-K effort in his last spring start, on March 1:

Last season, Slim was thrown into a starter role of necessity, by all the injuries sustained by his peers. His control was up-and-down, especially of his secondary pitches, and he finished with a shaky 5.20 ERA and -0.5 WAR. The Orioles have added a lot of depth at starter, and it’s presumed Povich, if he makes the team, will do so as a swingman.

On the other hand, control like he’s showed so far in spring will make it difficult to keep him out of the rotation.

Bullpen: RHP Brandon Young

The O’s reigning minor league Pitcher of the Year winner is having a decent, not standout spring, with two runs allowed on four hits and two walks in 4.1 innings. But those 4.1 innings also lead all Orioles relievers, and given, too, the fact that Young was not included in the 12 players cut last Sunday, this appears to mean that the team is interested in seeing what the right-hander has got.

Young enjoyed a breakout season in 2024, putting up a 3.44 ERA with 96 strikeouts in 89 innings with Norfolk after earning a promotion from Double-A last spring. The Orioles added him to their 40-man roster to protect him from the Rule 5 draft, and has been working on new pitches to implement this spring. It’ll be fun to see whether he sneaks onto the 26-man roster.

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That’s the story for now. The baseball season is a 162-game, seven-month grind, and last year’s struggles with personnel give strong motives to seek out greater organizational depth.

Not everybody can be a superstar on the daily: this team will need contributions from the 2025 version of Albert Suárez in order to stay competitive. At this point in the season, it’s far from obvious who such players might be, but it’s a fun thing to keep track of.

Source: https://www.camdenchat.com/2025/3/6/24379018/orioles-spring-training-roster-opening-day-candidates

 

[Baltimore Orioles]

More bad Orioles injury news: Grayson Rodriguez has triceps soreness

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It’s not good to hear about soreness in muscles that are near the elbow.

The Orioles are having another day of spring training where the “nobody get hurt” hope is being dashed. Ahead of Wednesday’s game against the Pirates, manager Brandon Hyde reported a new injury, with Grayson Rodriguez telling the team about soreness in his triceps following his start yesterday afternoon.

This is not pleasing news by any means but it is also not exactly surprising given how Rodriguez was pitching in that outing. Writers and others who were able to watch the game reported diminished velocity and command issues, things that often turn out to have “something in his arm was secretly hurting” as the explanation.

Triceps soreness is also one of those initial diagnoses that sometimes eventually turns out to be, actually, his elbow ligament is torn and he needs a good one. Though it’s not always that, so immediate panic is premature. Still, it’s not good. 48 hours ago there was no reason to be any more worried about Rodriguez than anyone else. That’s not the case now.

Rodriguez himself tried to downplay the issues when talking to the media yesterday, specifically saying that he had intended to not throw hard and soon would be going out to “let it eat.” That’s baseball slang for going out and throwing as hard as you can. This does not seem to be the explanation that he offered privately to the Orioles.

Hyde said that the team would know more about Rodriguez tomorrow. That sounds like they’re waiting on some kind of test result. Asked whether he was concerned, Hyde replied, “There’s always concern. I’m concerned every day right now with everybody.” Extremely relatable. He’s probably thinking about different things than I am.

One way that a person could try to read the Orioles offseason activity, specifically that they did not acquire a front-end starting pitcher by signing or trade, is that they were confident in their internal option, Rodriguez, stepping forward into that role. If he turns out to have a serious injury, the team’s bet for 2025 about him will not be paying off.

Unless tomorrow’s update is, “No problem, everything is perfectly fine and he’ll be making his next start as expected,” which it almost certainly won’t be, this situation is likely to impact the Orioles Opening Day rotation picture and maybe far beyond that.

Source: https://www.camdenchat.com/2025/3/6/24379525/orioles-news-grayson-rodriguez-injury-triceps

 

[Baltimore Orioles]

Know Your Orioles 40-man: Roansy Contreras

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The Orioles claimed Roansy Contreras twice over the offseason. The righty made it to Sarasota, but can he justify a place on the 40-man roster long term?

The modern day waiver wire can swing quickly enough to give any fringe major leaguer whiplash.

The Rangers claimed Roansy Contreras from the Angels on October 31, 2024. Texas designated Contreras for assignment on December 12, and the Reds plucked him off the waiver wire a few days later. Cincinnati attempted to sneak Contreras through waivers on January 6, but the Orioles claimed the 25-year-old during the second week of the new year.

You might think that’s where the story ends. After all, we’re here to break down a current member of Baltimore’s 40-man roster. Unfortunately for Contreras, the waiver wire kept on spinning.

The O’s attempted to sneak Contreras off the 40-man on January 16, but the Yankees had other ideas. New York mimicked the move at the beginning of February, but Baltimore made a second claim on the former Yankee prospect. Eventually, Contreras made his way to Sarasota for spring camp with the Orioles.

There’s always two ways to look at situations like this. Contreras features enough talent that several teams want him in their organization, but the righty quickly becomes expendable when a spot on the 40-man is required. So what is there to like about the 25-year-old starter?

Contreras signed with the Yankees as an international free agent in 2016. New York sent him to Pittsburgh as a part of the Jameson Taillon deal, and MLB Pipeline ranked Contreras as the Pirates’ fifth best prospect in 2022.

Things initially went well in Pittsburgh. Contreras pitched to a 5-5 record, 3.79 ERA, 1.274 WHIP and 107 ERA+ over 95 innings in 2022. His average fastball velocity sat at 95.6, and his 32.5 chase percentage ranked in the 82 percentile in MLB.

Unfortunately, Contreras hit a wall in 2023. He lost a few ticks on his fastball, and his numbers took a turn for the worse across the board. Pittsburgh initially sent the righty to its Bradenton facility before letting him pitch again at Triple-A. He finished the season with a 3-7 record and a 6.59 ERA over 68.1 big league innings.

The Pirates exhausted his minor league options prior to the 2024 season. Pittsburgh shifted Contreras to a relief role in an effort to keep him on the active roster, but the experiment was short lived. The Pirates DFA’d Contreras to make room for rookie phenom Paul Skenes in May and eventually shipped the former prospect to Los Angeles for cash considerations.

Contreras made three starts and 14 relief appearances for the Angels last season. He posted a 4.33 ERA and 1.288 WHIP over 52 innings, but his 5.19 FIP suggested some good fortune. He relied on a starter’s six-pitch arsenal and never truly embraced a traditional relief role with the Angels.

Brandon Hyde mentioned last week that the Orioles are stretching out Contreras to work as a starter or long reliever. He likely ranks toward the bottom of Baltimore’s starting pitching depth at the moment, but injuries to Trevor Rogers and Chayce McDermott could propel Contreras closer to an emergency appearance for the O’s.

Contreras hit 97 MPH earlier this week against the Red Sox, but Boston tagged him for a pair of homers and four earned runs in one inning of work. That number 97 carries more weight than the number four in a spring training game though.

The best case scenario with Contreras involves the starter rediscovering some magic at Triple-A. Baltimore hopes to experience better pitching health this season, and the Orioles will likely rely on Cade Povich and Albert Suárez as its first line of defense.

Nevertheless, the front office liked Contreras enough to claim him for a second time over the offseason. The Orioles likely have a targeted approach in mind, and the Birds have experienced some success resurrecting pitchers with an analytics-driven approach.

At 25 years old, Contreras could still have a long career ahead of him. The Orioles will look to maximize the talent of a former top 100 prospect, but don’t be entirely surprised if they try to sneak him through waivers again at the end of the month.

Source: https://www.camdenchat.com/2025/3/7/24378070/orioles-40-man-roster-roansy-contreras

 

[Baltimore Orioles]

Orioles injury news: Grayson Rodriguez not dealing with ligament but “will miss time”

Photo by Nick Cammett/Diamond Images via Getty Images

Additionally, reliever Andrew Kittredge is getting knee surgery and will be out for months.

Ahead of Friday evening’s spring training game, manager Brandon Hyde delivered a small update on Grayson Rodriguez. The starter, reported to have triceps soreness yesterday, is dealing with “discomfort in the back of his right elbow,” Hyde said. Although Hyde added that it’s not currently thought to be a ligament issue, Rodriguez is officially off the table for Opening Day.

I will just say that, given the way that elbow injuries often manifest in pitchers, I am not going to be stunned if it does, in fact, turn out to be a ligament issue. Vaguely nodding to it being the triceps or back of elbow area is not reassuring that ulnar collateral ligament damage is not going on or will not eventually be discovered.

All fans can do is wait for someone with the team to say, or a reporter to reveal, whether an MRI was done and what it said or didn’t say. The longer it goes on without getting any kind of definitive update, the more likely that the update that will be coming is a bad one.

A person did not have to stretch to guess that Rodriguez wasn’t going to be in the Opening Day roster picture as soon as he came down with the triceps soreness. That’s confirmed now.

The only bit of good news is that the Orioles have 20 days to figure out how they want to handle that. Is Albert Suárez the next man up? Has Cade Povich done enough in spring training to show that he’ll do well enough to plug him in? Or could this development be the kind of thing that kicks Mike Elias back out into the trade market? We’ll have to wait and see what happens between now and the start of the season.

Hyde had some other bad injury news to give out on Friday. Reliever Andrew Kittredge needs arthroscopic knee surgery and is going to miss multiple months. Things have been pointing in that direction for Kittredge for a few days now. When a guy has knee soreness, isn’t throwing at all, and any mention of him just involves getting other opinions, that’s because the first opinion wasn’t good.

Orioles fans were less invested in Kittredge since he was only signed a couple of months ago, but that’s still a tough blow to Elias’s plan for the season. He made only one move to fortify the bullpen and it’s going to be a bust until, at the most generous timeline, June. Unlike the rotation, there’s not as much depth to be had in the bullpen picture.

This also opens up space for guys who might not have otherwise made the team, with the out-of-options Bryan Baker possibly being the top beneficiary as a bullpen spot opens up. Those of us who will primarily associate Baker with his 2023 playoff failure are not heartened by this thought. He could be better than that.

Source: https://www.camdenchat.com/2025/3/7/24380363/orioles-injuries-grayson-rodriguez-andrew-kittredge

 

[Baltimore Orioles]

Saturday Bird Droppings: Bracing for even more injury news

Kim Klement Neitzel-Imagn Images

Everyone is hurt, some of them are serious, and the Grapefruit League schedule keeps on coming.

Good Morning Birdland!

It has been a bad week of injury news at Orioles camp, particularly on the pitching front. We learned on Friday evening that both Grayson Rodriguez and Andrew Kittredge would begin the season on the IL, and their return timelines are unclear.

Rodriguez is dealing with discomfort in the “back of his elbow.” However, manager Brandon Hyde confirmed that it was not a ligament issue. Instead, the concern is with Rodriguez’s right triceps, but the exact problem has not been reported.

Injuries have become a regular occurrence for Rodriguez. In 2022, he missed half of the season with a right lat strain. Last year, he had two IL stints, one for right shoulder discomfort and another for discomfort in his lat. The latter one caused him to miss the final two months of the season as well as the playoffs. Now you can add the triceps to his list of arm-related troubles.

A short IL stint for Rodriguez is not a huge deal. While the Orioles did not add an “ace” this offseason, they do have a decent amount of depth on the starting staff. My guess would be that Cade Povich moves into a back-end starting role to begin the year at this point. The lefty has looked quite good this spring (five innings, seven strikeouts, no earned runs), and had finished up 2024 in impressive fashion (2.60 ERA in September). Regardless, there is enough there for the Orioles to weather a brief Rodriguez absence.

The bigger concern would come with Rodriguez sitting on the shelf for an extended time. The homegrown righty is the ceiling-raiser of the group. He has all of the potential to become an ace, and that breakthrough could be due anytime now. But it won’t happen if he’s hurt.

We know slightly more about when to expect Kittredge back. The 34-year-old had been dealing with knee soreness and was seeking other opinions. Ultimately it was decided that he would need arthroscopic surgery on the cartilage. That’s going to cost him “multiple months”

Kittredge was expected to help serve as the team’s bridge to Félix Bautista, potentially sharing set-up duties with Yennier Cano. Maybe that will still happen, but we will have to wait until midsummer, at least, to find out.

For now, it looks like the Orioles will have an open competition for the vacant bullpen spot. But this could just as easily be an area were the team looks outside the organization for help. Oodles of players get DFA’d at the conclusion of spring training due to being out of options. That seems like a logical place for the O’s to hunt for talent in a couple of weeks.

Kittredge could still prove to be a worthwhile signing if he gets healthy and produces later in the year. For now, it’s a bummer and something that the team will just have to absorb.

Oh yeah, and Gunnar Henderson still hasn’t returned to game action yet. He is getting treatment (mild right intercostal strain), and the team is giving Jordan Westburg and Jackson Holliday more reps at shortstop...just in case.

Things are great!

Links

Orioles announce multi-year exhibition series against Washington Nationals | MLB.com
The two teams used to do this years ago, but the ongoing MASN dispute seemed to put an end to it. With that in the rearview—plus new ownership on the Orioles side—it seems like the relationship has warmed back up.

Fighting the urge to worry about the Orioles’ spring injuries | The Baltimore Banner
It’s OK, Jon Meoli. You can worry. Granted, nothing catastrophic has happened yet, but it certainly isn’t good! The team was already going to be counting on their offense a lot in the season ahead. Losing Rodriguez and Kittredge will increase that reliance. Pair that with Henderson and Tyler O’Neill currently in doubt, and you start to get a little antsy.

Notes on Kremer’s start, Bautista’s second relief appearance and more from Orioles-Tigers exhibition | Roch Kubatko
The outcomes here were not ideal. But nobody got hurt. For this team right now, that’s a positive!

Orioles birthdays

Is it your birthday? Happy birthday!

• Mark Worrell is 42 years old. He pitched in four games for the 2011 Orioles.
• Chris Lambert also turns 42 today. In 2009 he pitched in four games for the O’s.
• Mike Moriarty celebrates his 51st birthday. He got into eight games with the Orioles as a backup infielder in 2002.
• The late Ryan Freel (b. 1976, d. 2012) was born on this day. A longtime utility-man in MLB, he played just nine games with the Orioles, all of which came in 2009.
• It is also a posthumous birthday for Marv Breeding (b. 1934, d. 2006). The infielder began his career in Baltimore, where he spent three seasons from 1960-62 as a glove-first option at second base.

This day in history​

2001 - The Orioles announce that their outfielder Albert Belle is “unable to perform as a Major League baseball player” due to a degenerative hip. The slugger will go on the 60-day IL as a procedural move, but his MLB career is over.

2016 - Pedro Alvarez signs a one-year, $5.75 million deal with the Orioles to be their primary DH in the season ahead.

Source: https://www.camdenchat.com/2025/3/8...ews-rodriguez-kittredge-henderson-oneill-2025

 

[Baltimore Orioles]

The Orioles will again be calling on Yennier Cano for key late inning spots

Kim Klement Neitzel-Imagn Images

One projection thinks Cano will do about as well as last year. Another sees harder times coming.

For two magical months early in the 2023 season, Yennier Cano could not be touched. His ERA began with a 0. He barely walked anybody. Cano rode these and other superlatives into being an All-Star that season, along with his closer teammate Félix Bautista. It was a formidable back end of the bullpen. Now two years later, what can we expect to see as the “real” Cano coming up in this season?

This is an important question for the 2025 Orioles. They need Cano to be something like a rock near the back end of the bullpen. That’s especially going to be true early in the season, when manager Brandon Hyde has already said he’ll be trying to avoid using Bautista heavily. That means no multi-inning chances for the Mountain and no pitching on back-to-back days.

The only external move that the Orioles made to fortify the bullpen this offseason was the signing of Andrew Kittredge. With Kittredge getting increasingly gloomy injury updates, that only adds to the importance of the carryover guys from the 2024 bullpen, including Cano, being able to step into the gap.

Now that we’ve seen him pitch a second season, there’s a pretty decent idea of what the real Cano maybe looks like. Check out these two batting lines of hitters against him over the last couple of years:

• 2023 (July 1-end of season, 39 games): .250/.294/.414
• 2024 (full season, 70 games): .242/.317/.372

In 2024, he walked batters a bit more often but made up for this by giving up less power than he did in the second half of 2023. I don’t think it’s a coincidence that the second half ERA from 2023 is close to the same as the full season number from 2024: 3.24 to 3.15. That’s a season and a half of reasonable consistency. It’s only disappointing compared to the first couple of months introduction we got to him in 2023. It might also be disappointing if Cano is increasingly plugged into the ninth inning.

Can we expect more of the same from Cano this season? Here’s what two of the big projection systems are seeing for him in 2025:

• ZiPS: 63.1 IP, 3.27 ERA
• PECOTA: 57 IP, 3.96 ERA

These are two different ERA pictures. The ZiPS number is continuing more of the same from the past season and a half for Cano. PECOTA’s near-4 ERA is not the ERA of someone who belongs in the late-inning mix of a team that’s contending. (Let’s not look too hard at Seranthony Domínguez finishing with a 3.97 ERA with the Orioles a year ago and them bringing him back.) If Bautista is regularly resting and the signing of Kittredge amounts to nothing, a 4+ ERA from Cano would be a big problem.

For the over/under discussion below, I’ll be using the ZiPS ERA number. I like to use ZiPS because it is freely available to the public, and also because its creator and maintainer, Dan Szymborski, grew up in Maryland and has good opinions about pit beef sandwiches.

The case for the over​

Any reliever’s performance could take a swan dive into oblivion at any time, for no concrete reason that any fan could predict. Orioles relievers are not immune from experiencing this phenomenon just because they seem like nice guys and we have fun memories of them contributing to good Orioles teams.

Or there could be concrete reasons that someone could predict too. Cano had a couple of Statcast trends working against him last year that probably blew his ERA up into the 3s when it could have been lower. One is that he was walking too many dudes - very close to one batter in ten walked for the season. It’s a bad percentage. The other is that batters who made contact hit the ball hard, often. Cano was just 13th percentile in preventing hard-hit balls.

Maybe it’s small sample size and maybe it’s not, but here’s another possible problem if Cano is going to bear more of the ninth inning workload if Bautista is resting. Career ERAs by inning:

• 7th: 2.59
• 8th: 2.35
• 9th: 4.95

That plus Cano pitching in the ninth more could be a recipe for the over.

The case for the under​

Cano has some Statcast stuff going in his favor too. He was in the 99th percentile for ground ball rate, with 63.5% of balls in play going on the ground. That’s not quite Zack Britton at his peak level, but it’s really good. The danger of a hard-hit ball on the ground is much less than a hard-hit ball in the air. Despite the high walk rate, he’s also proven adept at getting batters to swing at pitches outside of the strike zone, where they will typically be able to do less damage if they make contact.

There may also have been a bit of a bad luck element for Cano in 2024, with a BABIP of .314. That’s an elevated number. It could have been bad pitching rather than bad luck, but if you’re inclined to believe that, you’re not looking for the case for the under, are you? We know Cano can do better than a 3.24 ERA because he’s done it twice, even last year when he was “disappointing” relative to what he’d done the year before.

**

The All-Star of 2023 won’t be coming back. That’s okay. The Orioles don’t need Cano to do that. They just need him to do at least as well as he did last year. That doesn’t feel like it should be too much to ask, but you never really know. Where do you think he will end up?

Source: https://www.camdenchat.com/2025/3/7/24379362/orioles-season-projections-yennier-cano-2025

 

[Baltimore Orioles]

Orioles injury news: Grayson Rodriguez gets cortisone shot for elbow inflammation

Photo by Brace Hemmelgarn/Minnesota Twins/Getty Images

Rodriguez will resume throwing after being shut down for 7-10 days.

After a couple of days of vague information, the Orioles have given a firmer status update on Grayson Rodriguez. The diagnosis for the time being is elbow inflammation, for which he has received a cortisone shot, manager Brandon Hyde said to Orioles reporters on Sunday. After 7-10 days of rest, Rodriguez will resume throwing.

The first indication was that Rodriguez reported triceps soreness following his Thursday start. On Saturday, the Orioles said that Rodriguez’s injury was in the back of his elbow but not in the ligament, and he was moved to definitely missing Opening Day. Now, that’s more firmly defined as elbow inflammation.

Unfortunately, this is still not a diagnosis that can rule out that there is damage to the ulnar collateral ligament. That’s the crucial ligament that has to be replaced if a pitcher needs Tommy John surgery. Inflammation in the elbow can mask ligament damage in an MRI. It’s happened before.

If that is what is going on here, there’s not much to be done except wait for time to pass and there can be a clearer idea of what is happening. They can’t know until they know. Hyde’s earlier optimistic proclamation could turn out to be wishful thinking. Neither the team nor the player wants to have to talk about serious elbow surgery until there’s absolutely no other choice.

In ten days, if Rodriguez isn’t actually ready to start throwing again, that will be one way to find out. Or if he is ready to throw and it goes as poorly as his self-proclaimed “sluggish” outing from last week that led to the report of triceps soreness, that will be another way.

Maybe it will even turn out fine, in defiance of every expectation I have developed in a lifetime of Orioles fandom. I won’t actually believe in that unless Rodriguez is on a mound, facing major league hitters, and looking something like the Rodriguez we have seen in the past.

Source: https://www.camdenchat.com/2025/3/9/24381347/orioles-news-grayson-rodriguez-elbow-injury

 

[Baltimore Orioles]

Sunday Bird Droppings: A split-squad day means two Orioles games in different places

Photo by Julio Aguilar/Getty Images

The Orioles got through yesterday without any new injuries. Yay!

Hello, friends.

Don’t forget that the “spring forward” part of daylight savings time happened last night.

There are now 18 days remaining until Orioles Opening Day. There’s still a good amount of spring training to get through between now and then, with exhibition games running through March 24. Today, there are two O’s games coming, with split squad action as one set of Orioles plays the Twins at home and another set plays the Phillies on the road.

The home game will be on Orioles radio only, with the road game, if you really want to watch it, on Phillies TV. Tomoyuki Sugano is set to start the home game. I hope he does well. You can guess at how much of a priority the road game is for the Orioles pitching staff since they’ve got Thaddeus Ward, a person whose existence you were definitely aware of before I mentioned the name just now, making that start.

In yesterday’s Grapefruit League affair, the Orioles lost to the Rays, 6-3. The bulk of the stink was concentrated in the one inning pitched by Seranthony Domínguez, with the reliever managing to give up five runs on five hits. You can never be sure how much a spring training outing is the result of experimentation or some other weird only-in-March-in-Florida kind of condition. I was disappointed by Domínguez last year and so I’m ready to be disappointed by him again this year, but I hope to be wrong.

Better things going on in that game included Charlie Morton tossing three scoreless innings with four strikeouts, and scoreless innings from each of Cionel Pérez, Yennier Cano, and Gregory Soto. We can work with that.

Also on the bright side is that as far as we know so far, there were no new injuries suffered during that game. The last week was not a good one on the injury front. I’d really like to see Gunnar Henderson declared well, or at least enough on the path to recovery that a return date that’s before Opening Day can be targeted. The longer we go without that happening, the more I’ll be worried that last year’s best Orioles player will miss the start of the season.

Since the start of spring training, I’ve been setting myself a rule of no panic about someone who stinks before March 10. I’m trying to stick to that but here we are and March 10 is tomorrow so there aren’t any more freebie days left after today. Whoever looks like he’s bad needs to either get better or get shuffled out.

Around the blogO’sphere​

Orioles find themselves with roster spots to fill (Orioles.com)
Jake Rill considers the fill-ins for definitely IL guys Grayson Rodriguez and Andrew Kittredge, as well as possibilities if Gunnar Henderson doesn’t improve in time.

With two key Orioles injuries, here are five options for camp competition still on the market (The Baltimore Banner)
I’d rather just roll the dice with Cade Povich than sign any of these starting pitchers, but I think there’s something to be said for trying to bring in David Robertson in response to Kittredge’s knee injury.

Lack of an ace threatens to undermine Orioles season before it begins (The Baltimore Sun)
An extremely similar article to this could have been written even if Rodriguez had not gotten hurt. Mike Elias took a chance that he didn’t have to do anything big. He may be spectacularly wrong.

Birthdays and Orioles anniversaries​

There is one current Oriole who has a birthday today. Happy 31st to Yennier Cano! A pair of former O’s also are celebrating a birthday: 2021 one-game pitcher Zack Burdi, and 2011 reliever Clay Rapada.

Is today your birthday? Happy birthday to you! Your birthday buddies for today include: continental namesake Amerigo Vespucci (1451), baseball Hall of Famers Billy Southworth (1893) and Arky Vaughn (1912), first man in space Yuri Gagarin (1934), actor Oscar Isaac (1979), BTS rapper Suga (1993), and gold medal gymnast Sunisa Lee (2003).

On this day in history...​

In 1862, one Union and one Confederate warship dueled to a draw in the Battle of Hampton Roads, a noteworthy occasion for military history as it was the first battle between ironclads - steel-hulled steam-propelled ships as opposed to wooden ones.

In 1916, Mexican revolutionary Pancho Villa raided across the border into the United States, leading about 500 men into Columbus, New Mexico for reasons that are hazy to history. The raid prompted President Wilson to order the US Army into Mexico to capture Villa; the military proved unable to do so.

In 1959, New York’s American International Toy Fair saw the debut of the Barbie doll. Over a billion dolls have since been sold.

**

And that’s the way it is in Birdland on March 9. Have a safe Sunday.

Source: https://www.camdenchat.com/2025/3/9/24380795/orioles-spring-training-news-injury-updates

 

[Baltimore Orioles]

Jordan Westburg is already a very good Oriole and could prove to be a great one

Photo by Mark Goldman/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images

Westburg’s absence last year was connected to the team’s decline.

In some ways, Jordan Westburg is both too young and too old. On the one hand, he’s often getting overshadowed by the top prospects around him—Gunnar, Adley, Jackson. On the other, so far in his career, he’s been too quiet and retiring to be a “clubhouse leader” like last season veterans Anthony Santander and Corbin Burnes.

Maybe this is the year that’ll change. I mean, we want great things this season from the hot-shot youngsters too, but 2025 could be the year Jordan Westburg emerges into that quiet clubhouse leader type, the J.J. Hardy or Nick Markakis roster dependable who plays every day and contributes value to the club in countless unmeasurable ways.

Last season Westburg put up good numbers—a .264/.312/.793 slashline with 18 home runs and 63 RBI in 107 games—but he’d have put up better ones if he hadn’t missed a month and a half in August/September with a fractured right hand. It was a bummer, as the whole offense slid off the table in the second half, and when Westburg did return in mid-September, he wasn’t fully himself, hitting .192 with just a single extra-base hit in six games.

That Westy is capable of much more is reflected by the fairly high opinion of him held by the preseason projections, namely ZiPS, which we’re looking at here. After Gunnar and Adley, Westburg is projected to be the team’s No. 3 most valuable position player, worth a predicted 3.6 WAR in 2025. Here are the rest of his projected numbers:

123 G, 17 HR, 71 RBI, .256 BA, .317 OBP, .437 SLG, .754 OPS, 6.7 BB%, 23 K%, 3.6 WAR

These are not earth-shattering numbers; they are solid ones. It’s possible that this is a fair assessment, that what Westburg becomes is a solid and dependable everyday player you’re grateful to have around, even if he’s not racking up All-Star selections. Let’s not discount the value of this, though—it’ll be great news for the Orioles if Westburg plays 123 games and becomes, truly, an everyday third baseman.

The case for the over​

Despite his overall solid predicted value as a position player, these offensive numbers are not particularly high in light of past accomplishments. Power, in particular. Last season, Westburg hit 18 home runs in 107 games. ZiPS expects him to hit one fewer in sixteen more games. Yet there’s reason to think a healthy Westy can crack the 20-homer mark, especially with the left-field wall having been pushed in in the offseason, which will benefit right-handed hitters primarily.

Then there’s the OPS prediction in general. Last season, Westburg OPS’d .793, forty points greater than his predicted .754 mark here. That included an unusually hot April (.311 batting average, .917 OPS) but no crazy BABip luck or anything else like that for the rest of the year. It also included a poor July and barely a September. Westburg might be able to beat his projected .754 mark and not even have to get particularly lucky.

The case for the under​

One of the lowest predicted stats for him here, interestingly, is walk rate (6.7%). What to make of this? It’s inconsistent with Westburg’s college and MiLB days. In three seasons at Mississippi State he walked at a 10.3% rate, and in 2021, across three MiLB levels, it was a healthy 12.1%, while in 2022, across two levels, he walked at an 11.3% clip.

Despite his steady demeanor, Westburg doesn’t actually have that long of a big-league track record, but in 175 games his MLB walk rate, interestingly, is much lower than it was at the lower levels: 5.6%, including a 4.9%-mark last season. I’m used to thinking of Westburg as a high-contact, solid-approach, patient hitter, so I was somewhat surprised to see this. Even going from 4.9% to 6.7% (his 2024 and projected 2025 walk rates) would be a significant jump, so perhaps Westy will not defy predictions.

---

Whatever Westburg’s luck at prediction-busting, his steadying presence in the lineup and on the diamond are critical to stabilizing the Orioles lineup from the ups and downs they endured last year. This spring, he missed the better part of two weeks with back spasms, but it turned out to be the fault of a saggy mattress at his Airbnb. Time to invest in a Tempur-Pedic and rack up some consecutive games.

Source: https://www.camdenchat.com/2025/3/10/24382265/orioles-offense-defense-jordan-westburg-2025

 

[Baltimore Orioles]

Bautista gets more work in, Basallo hits colossal dinger as Orioles beat Pirates

Tommy Gilligan-Imagn Images

The Orioles had lost their previous four spring games against the Pirates.

Every passing day brings us closer to the regular season. The closer it gets, the more important it is that the players who matter are looking like they’re getting into regular season form. The Orioles played the Pirates on Monday night and the most important thing was Félix Bautista continuing to get his work in. As a nice bonus, the Orioles won, 6-3, their first spring win over Pittsburgh in five tries.

One way that you can tell that the outcome of the game didn’t matter is that the Orioles starting pitcher was Matt Bowman. The Maryland-born Bowman pitched in 15 games for the O’s a year ago and is back in this camp as a non-roster invite. He’s fine. But there’s no scenario short of disaster where he’s regularly starting real games for the team. Good for him for striking out four guys in 1.2 scoreless innings on Monday.

The guy worth paying attention to was Bautista. It would be nice to look at a 1-2-3 inning with three strikeouts. That’s not the inning he got. After striking out the first batter, Bautista allowed a triple to Jared Triolo. Well, that’s what the official box score says. In reality, this was one of those batted balls that had no business being a triple. Center fielder Dylan Carlson realized too late that he wasn’t going to catch the ball and he was in a bad position to play the carom.

The next two batters got hits as well and Bautista ended up with two runs allowed in his one inning. It doesn’t matter yet. He’s working back to his regular velocity. In this outing, Bautista averaged 97mph and touched 99 (well, 98.5 but rounded up) once. He’s still getting a feel for getting the splitter into the strike zone. Also, maybe he’s throwing a cutter now? I don’t know if this will happen in the regular season.

Bautista’s two runs allowed cut a 3-0 Orioles lead to 3-2. The O’s held that early lead as the bottom of the lineup came through against Pirates starter Mitch Keller. Daz Cameron drove in two runs, and after the lineup turned over, Jordan Westburg drove in another. It’s nice to see Westburg getting things done.

Later in the game, Samuel Basallo hit the kind of colossal home run that was a reminder of why he’s got so many people so excited about his power potential:

Samuel Basallo hits baseballs very, very far @MLBPipeline's No. 13 overall prospect CRUSHED this pitch!

— MLB (Bot) (@mlbbot.bsky.social) 2025-03-10T23:41:11.000Z

Cameras are just not configured to even get a sense of where that ball landed. Statcast provided an estimated distance of 403 feet, which has the defect of not feeling awesome enough. Jackson Holliday agrees. The Pirates announcer in the clip notes that the wind was going out to right, so there was probably extra distance beyond the wind-neutral estimation that Statcast provided.

It’s an impressive home run no matter what number of feet the computer says. Or at least it’s as impressive as a spring training home run that’s hit off of failed Oriole Isaac Mattson can possibly be.

This was a three-run dinger to set up a 6-2 lead. A non-factor reliever allowed the third and final Pirates run.

One other subplot of interest was Jackson Holliday playing shortstop. With Gunnar Henderson on the shelf for a still-undetermined amount of time, somebody’s going to have to play the position and Holliday might well have stuck there in an organization that didn’t have a Henderson-level talent already. He had a throw go wide for an error but otherwise looked fine. Hopefully he doesn’t need to be ready for more than the occasional fill-in game there.

About Henderson, manager Brandon Hyde told Orioles reporters that the timetable for return is still uncertain, but added that Henderson is “progressing well.” I will not share that sentiment until there’s a timetable.

The Orioles will be back in action on Tuesday afternoon at 1:05. That game, like this Monday night affair, will actually be televised on MASN, so you can watch Albert Suárez and others play if you are able.

Source: https://www.camdenchat.com/2025/3/10/24382811/orioles-pirates-spring-training-score-felix-bautista

 

[Baltimore Orioles]

Tuesday afternoon Orioles spring training game thread: at Yankees, 1:05

Matt Krohn-Imagn Images

Albert Suárez and a number of likely regulars travel to Tampa for today’s spring game.

Opening Day is 16 days away from today. If we count the final tune-up exhibition in Washington before the regular season, there are 14 spring training games remaining for everything to get in order. This is the point where I would like to see players who have been struggling so far turn that narrative around.

The expected regular lineup guys who are on the struggle bus in today’s lineup are Cedric Mullins and Ryan Mountcastle. Mullins, in his small spring sample to date, is OPSing a mere .344. Mountcastle is much better than that but still bad with a .611 OPS. Start showing something, guys! Don’t keep getting upstaged by Vimael Machín. Who, by the way, is also in this starting lineup as the Orioles play the Yankees.

This one will actually be on MASN. The network seems to like to take advantage when it can just piggy-back off of the other team’s TV feed. That’s what happened last night in the game against the Pirates and it will probably happen here again today.

There was a little bit of positive Orioles injury news before the game. Manager Brandon Hyde said that Gunnar Henderson was getting work in the cage, and that he’ll be taking ground balls tomorrow. That still doesn’t give much of a sense of what his timetable for return might be and whether that’s been thrown off Opening Day. But it’s better than if the vague nothingness was continuing with no concrete steps.

Orioles lineup​

1. Cedric Mullins - CF
2. Adley Rutschman - C
3. Tyler O’Neill - LF
4. Colton Cowser - DH
5. Ryan Mountcastle - 1B
6. Ramón Laureano - RF
7. Coby Mayo - 3B
8. Vimael Machín - 2B
9. Luis Vazquez - SS

In addition to Albert Suárez, Yennier Cano and Cionel Pérez are expected to pitch. There will be other innings covered by non-roster guys.

Source: https://www.camdenchat.com/2025/3/11/24383283/orioles-yankees-lineups-game-chat

 

[Baltimore Orioles]

Gregory Soto could thrive in high-leverage situations while Félix Bautista eases back

Tommy Gilligan-Imagn Images

Gregory Soto expressed a desire to pitch in higher leverage situations last season. With the Orioles expected to slow play Félix Bautista, could Soto rise to the occasion?

They say you never get a second chance to make a first impression. Gregory Soto got off to a brutal start after arriving in Baltimore at the trade deadline, but the former Phillie quickly turned into one of Brandon Hyde’s most trusted relievers.

Soto allowed four runs and only recorded one out in his first appearance against the Guardians. He held Cleveland to a pair of hits his next time out before taking another four-run shellacking against the Blue Jays. The two-time All Star had already been deemed expendable by Philadelphia, and he didn’t look like an answer for the injury-riddled O’s.

Fortunately, things quickly turned for the better. Initially pitching in lower-leverage situations, Soto rattled off 10 consecutive appearances without allowing an earned run. In fact, the lefty limited opponents to only two runs in his final 20 appearances for the Birds.

Soto mainly relies on a high 90s sinker and a strong slider to keep hitters off balance. His Whiff percentage (31.0), strikeout percentage (26.6) and his fastball velocity (97.5) all ranked in the top quarter of baseball last season.

The Orioles will be thrilled to get Félix Bautista back, but Hyde has already outlined plans to ease the All-Star closer back into his role. Soto, Seranthony Domínguez, Yennier Cano and even Keegan Akin could all be counted on in early save situations. Free-agent acquisition Andrew Kittredge figured to factor into that group, but the 34-year-old will miss at least two months after undergoing a knee procedure.

Soto possesses the power pitching style of a late-inning reliever. ZiPS projects the lefty to post the third highest K/9 behind only Bautista and Akin. It also projects a 5-3 record, 3.60 ERA, and one save over 62 appearances (55 IP).

The 3.60 ERA would represent Soto’s best tally since his most recent All Star appearance in 2022. Can Soto best the projection?

The case for the under​

I watched Soto strike out a pair during a scoreless inning in Sarasota on Saturday. The power arm looked ready for the regular season, and Soto is likely eager to make a stronger impression in 2025.

Domínguez emerged as the unofficial closer in the second half of last season, but the bullpen hierarchy will completely reset this year. Soto has experience pitching at the end of games.

The former closer recorded 48 saves for Detroit between 2021 and 2022. He expressed a desire to pitch in higher leverage situations after arriving in Baltimore, but his early struggles threw cold water on the idea. Looking ahead to 2025, a few early save situations could be exactly the type of motivation that Soto needs.

The case for the over​

Those two bad outings were really bad last season. Soto allowed five earned runs in 0.1 innings with the Phillies back in April, so the runs seem to come in bunches. It only takes a few bad appearances for a reliever’s ERA to balloon. For what it’s worth, ZiPS projects a 3.35 FIP and 0.6 WAR for the reliever.

Even without Kittredge, the Orioles have several options for late in games. It’s unclear how Soto would react if he fell behind Akin and/or Cíonel Pérez in Hyde’s lefty power rankings.

Source: https://www.camdenchat.com/2025/3/1...oto-player-projections-felix-bautista-bullpen

 

[Baltimore Orioles]

The Orioles are due for a power increase in 2025

Nathan Ray Seebeck-Imagn Images

Baltimore lost its home run leader when Anthony Santander signed with Toronto, but the roster is filled with players capable of upping their power production this season.

The Orioles have 44 home runs to replace with Anthony Santander leaving for Toronto, but Baltimore’s lineup is filled with players capable of increasing their power supply. It only takes one swing of the bat to remind everyone of the potential.

Ryan Mountcastle sent a three-run homer the opposite way yesterday afternoon at George M. Steinbrenner Field. The 2025 home of the Rays qualifies as a hitters park, but Mountcastle will take every blast he can get after dealing with the left field wall at Camden Yards.

The Orioles moved the wall back in this season, and Mike Elias expects a few more balls to exit the park. Mountcastle should improve on his total of 13 long balls over 124 games in 2024, but he’s hardly the only player with 20+ homer potential.

Santander, Gunnar Henderson (37), and Colton Cowser (24) were the only three players to surpass 20 long balls in 2024, but the Birds have power hitters at almost every position. Henderson feels like a lock for at least 30 dingers if he stays healthy, and Cowser should lead a young group of players capable of upping their production.

Cowser provided a clear template for players like Jackson Holliday, Heston Kjerstad and Coby Mayo. The Milk Man went 7-for-61 in his first taste of the majors and failed to leave the ballpark in 2023. He broke camp with the club a year later and never looked back on his way to 24 dingers and an AL Outstanding Rookie award from his peers.

Kjerstad, similar to 20-year-old phenom Samuel Basallo, resembled a big-league power hitter before making his debut. He combined for 20 long balls between Norfolk and Baltimore last season, and he’ll have every opportunity to punish major league pitchers this season.

Mayo went deep 25 times in the minors last season. He may not receive the playing time to eclipse 20 homers this season, but he’s conquered every minor league park available.

Holliday arrived in Sarasota looking bigger, faster and stronger. Normally, any 21-year-old player would elicit the cliché of doubles eventually turning into homers, but Holliday is not the average 21-year-old player. The phenom ripped four home runs in a six game stretch after returning to the majors last season.

The list doesn’t stop there. Adley Rutschman managed 19 jacks despite a brutal second half of the season. The 27-year-old has tagged the ball this spring, and he looks ready to return to All-Star form.

Jordan Westburg launched 18 homers in only 107 games, and Tyler O’Neill looks like a cartoon character that just overdosed on spinach. O’Neill produced 31 homers last season for Boston.

Cedric Mullins may never duplicate his 30/30 totals from 2021, but the 30-year-old is entering a contract season after leaving the yard 18 times in 2024. Ryan O’Hearn and Ramón Urías both tallied double digit dingers last season, and stranger things have happened than either player approaching the 20-homer mark this year.

It’s not exactly breaking news that the Orioles should hit a bunch of home runs, but how often does a team lose its best power hitter and then take a step forward? Baltimore finished two homers shy of the league lead with 235 homers last year. With several players due to take a step forward, how many long balls could be in (or out) of play in 2025?

The Yankees led the league with 237 bombs, but 58 of those came from Aaron Judge. Only three Yankees tallied more than 15 home runs in 2024. Juan Soto (41) is no longer with the organization, and Giancarlo Stanton (27) is battling issues with both elbows.

The Orioles may not have one player that can go swing-for-swing with Judge, but the Birds have nine guys that can go homer-to-homer with any lineup.

The Birds’ bats went quite down the stretch and into the postseason. Nobody is advocating for a three true outcomes approach, but few teams have this many players capable of changing the game at any given moment.

Source: https://www.camdenchat.com/2025/3/1...untcastle-henderson-cowser-westburg-santander

 

[Baltimore Orioles]

Walltimore’s demise could reinvigorate Ryan Mountcastle’s power numbers

Photo by Julio Aguilar/Getty Images

The change in dimensions to Oriole Park’s dreaded left-field wall could give the O’s righty slugger a home run boost in 2025.

The O’s didn’t make a ton of splashy moves this offseason. But if you were to ask Ryan Mountcastle, he’d probably tell you that the Orioles’ best addition was by subtraction.

After three nightmarish years for Mountcastle and other right-handed sluggers, Walltimore is no more. At least, not in its previous form. The imposing left-field fence at Camden Yards, which had towered 13 feet high and sat as far as 398 feet from home plate at its deepest point, has been lowered and pulled in for 2025, now at a manageable height of 7-8 feet and a maximum distance of 376. The days of Statcast noting that a long shot to left would have been a home run in every MLB ballpark except Baltimore are over.

It’s not a complete return to the homer-happy Oriole Park dimensions of 2021 and earlier, but it should be a breath of fresh air for every hitter who saw their mammoth blasts to left field somehow fail to clear the colossal partition. In just three years, Walltimore swallowed up a staggering 137 fly balls that would have been home runs under the old dimensions.

Nobody suffered worse than Mountcastle, who lost 11 roundtrippers to the gargantuan blockade, the most of any hitter. It’s no surprise that his home run total has declined every year since his breakout 33-dinger campaign in 2021, reaching its nadir with just 13 long balls in 124 games last season. It’s a disappointing outcome for a guy whose prodigious power is supposed to be his calling card.

That’s not to say Mountcastle hasn’t been a contributor to the Orioles’ winning ways. He’s still posted an above-average OPS+ in every season of his career, and he’s turned himself into an excellent defender, tying for the AL lead in Defensive Runs Saved (8) among first basemen last year. He’s a perfectly fine player.

But when O’s fans see Ryan Mountcastle, what they expect to see is jaw-dropping moon shots, and those have been too few and far between in recent years. Is this the year that his power numbers skyrocket once again? Let’s see what ZiPS projects for his home run total.

ZiPS projection: 128 G, 526 PA, 18 HR, .257/.304/.424, 1.2 WAR

The case for the over​

I mean...you heard that Walltimore is dead, right? The change in the left-field dimensions opens up a whole new world for Mountcastle’s power stroke. “[I’m] excited,” he told the media in February. “It’s a good feeling knowing that you can pull the ball again and get good results out of it.” One can’t help but wonder if the 2022-24 dimensions not only dampened Mountcastle’s statistics but also ruined his confidence, causing him to change his swing or his plate approach for the worse. Now he can go back to doing what he does best.

It will also help if Mountcastle can stay on the field a little bit more. He’s missed at least 30 games to injury in each of the last two seasons, depressing his overall stats. If he can stay fully healthy this year, then swatting more than 18 home runs is easily attainable.

The case for the under​

As fun as it is to assume that Mountcastle will magically return to the 30+ homer form that he flashed before Walltimore so rudely intruded into his life, it might not be that simple. MLB.com’s Mike Petriello crunched the numbers and found that of Mountcastle’s 11 “robbed” home runs over the last three years, only six would have been dingers under the new 2025 dimensions. That’s an average of just two a year. This isn’t the old Oriole Park bandbox that Mountcastle so enjoyed in 2021.

There’s also the very real possibility that Mountcastle won’t spend the whole season as an Oriole. He has just two years before free agency and top prospect Coby Mayo — a fellow right-handed slugger with arguably even more raw power than Mountcastle — is waiting for a major league spot, perhaps at first base. It wouldn’t be a shock if the O’s traded Mountcastle this season before he reaches the 18-homer mark.

Source: https://www.camdenchat.com/2025/3/12/24383329/orioles-projections-ryan-mountcastle

 

[Baltimore Orioles]

Zach Eflin is a solid starting pitcher, but he is not an ace

Photo by Brace Hemmelgarn/Minnesota Twins/Getty Images

Zach Eflin was a hero for the Orioles down the stretch. How will he fare this season?

When the Orioles traded for Zach Eflin last July, they seemed to have received more than they could have hoped for. Eflin had made 19 mediocre starts for the non-contending Rays, who sent him to Baltimore for prospects.

Eflin was immediately better with the Orioles. Starting with a six-inning start on July 29, he pitched to a 2.60 ERA over nine starts in support of his new team as they stumbled into the playoffs.

Eflin was drafted by the San Diego Padres in the first round in 2012. The Padres traded him to the Dodgers in 2014, who almost immediately flipped him to the Phillies for Jimmy Rollins. He made his major-league debut in 2016 and stayed with the Phillies for seven seasons. He was never great with the Phillies, pitching to a 4.49 ERA in 127 games. He always had decent strikeout and walk numbers, but gave up a lot of home runs.

After he reached free agency in 2022, the Rays struck early and signed him to a three-year, $40 million contract. It looked like the Rays got a bargain when he had the best season of his career in 2023. He made 31 starts and pitched a career-high 177.2 innings. He had a 3.50 ERA and finished sixth in Cy Young voting.

His results went downhill to start 2024. His peripheral numbers didn’t look too different from 2023 but he struck out fewer and his home run levels were back up to where they were with the Phillies. The end result was a 4.09 ERA in 19 starts and a one-way ticket out of Florida.

I mentioned the 2.60 ERA with the Orioles, but the truth is his underlying numbers weren’t much better. He allowed eight home runs in his nine starts, which accounted for 13 of the 16 runs he gave up in an O’s uniform. But he limited damage otherwise and pitched into the sixth inning in each of his first eight starts with the team.

From the date of Eflin’s first start with the Orioles on July 29 through the end of the season, the Orioles had a record of 29-28. In Eflin’s starts they went 7-2. His arrival and performance with the team coincided with the only bad month put up by team ace Corbin Burnes. Eflin picked up the slack. Without him, things would have been so much worse.

So who is the real Zach Eflin? Seven years’ worth of data in Philadelphia shows a pitcher solid enough for a spot in the starting rotation, but not the savior that we saw in Baltimore last year. His 2023 season with the Rays was excellent. And it wasn’t an illusion. His FIP was even lower than his 3.50 ERA, his groundball numbers were up, his strikeouts were up. But it was just one season.

Here are Eflin’s stats with both the Orioles and Rays last year:

• Rays: 19 GS, 110 IP, 4.09 ERA/3.68 FIP, 14 HR, 13 BB, 87 K
• Orioles: 9 GS, 55.1 IP, 2.60 ERA/3.94 FIP, 8 HR, 11 BB, 47 K

And here are his ZiPS projections:

26 G, 148.7 IP, 3.75 ERA/3.77 FIP, 19 HR, 25 BB, 122 K, 2.3 fWAR

This would not be a bad season! That’s a solid year for a starting pitcher. For those who watched Eflin’s performance over his nine starts with the Orioles, it might be a bit of a letdown. Ditto if they only started paying attention to the Eflin when he joined the AL East. Eflin with those stats would be a very solid part of the rotation. But that is not a top-of-the-rotation starting pitcher. It remains to be seen if the Orioles actually have one of those.

The case for the over​

Let’s talk ERA. Eflin was never going to pitch to a 2.60 ERA for a full season. A full run higher might seem like a big jump, but 3.75 would be a lower ERA than Eflin had in any year he pitched for the Phillies. And that’s 127 games of data. Over 650 innings. It’s hard to argue with that.

The case for the under​

Eflin’s two years since leaving Philadelphia have been better than any year he had with them. Even with an underwhelming first half with Tampa Bay last season, his overall ERA for 2023-24 is just 3.54. That’s over 59 starts and 343 innings. It’s not as large of data set as seven seasons with the Phillies, but it’s not chump change either. It’s possible he figured something out when he joined the Rays and that will carry over into 2025.

Source: https://www.camdenchat.com/2025/3/13/24384538/orioles-projections-zach-eflin