The
Edmonton Oilers are in a funk.
They’ve lost four consecutive home games.
They have one regulation win in their last 11 games.
No one will help them out of this funk. They need to do it collectively as a group.
“Obviously, we are not playing our best,” said
Zach Hyman. “It is a combination. We aren’t defending properly, not defending on the rush properly and it’s just not on the defence and the goalies. It is on the forwards coming back, sorting things out and just being harder to play against. We need to spend more time in their zone. A lot of areas we can improve on. It is a collective effort, and it starts with us out working the other team.”
The Oilers are giving up way too many quality chances lately. If you believe in expected goals against, the Oilers sit at 26 xGA at 5×5 over the last 11 games. They were a half a goal better in their first 50 games. Yes, you would like a few more saves, but when the expected goals are that high your odds of winning are much, much lower. In the only regulation game they won,
Calvin Pickard played outstanding. You could argue fairly that goaltending cost them games earlier in the season, but since January 30th, the goalies are not more of an issue than the skaters.
Oilersnation is frustrated. The players are frustrated, but Hyman is confident they will figure it out.
“If there is any group that has faced adversity it is this one,” he said. “Is it harder to play when things aren’t going well? Of course it is. You aren’t your most confident, just like life in general whatever you are doing, when you are struggling it is harder. Unfortunately, we have been in these situations too often and we know how to work our way out of them.”
I believe the Oilers are a good team playing poorly.
I do think GM Stan Bowman still needs to alter his roster before tomorrow’s deadline, but the current roster can play better. And it needs to.
Tonight will not be an easy game. The Montreal Canadiens are rolling. They’ve won five in a row and are suddenly right in the midst of a tight playoff race in the Eastern Conference.
New Jersey announced
Jack Hughes is out for the season after crashing shoulder first into the end boards earlier this week. His injury, combined with the Devils’ recent play puts the Canadiens right back in the playoff race. All of the teams behind them have games in hand. Ottawa, Detroit and Montreal can only compete for the two Wildcard spots, but Columbus and the Rangers are suddenly in a realistic battle with New Jersey for third in the Metro as well as the two wildcard slots.
Montreal has won all five of its games coming out of the 4-Nations break. They defeated Ottawa, Carolina, San Jose and Buffalo twice. They’ve scored 21 goals while allowing 10. Sam Montembault didn’t play a game at 4-Nations, but he was around the team, and he’s been stellar in his four starts since.
There aren’t many easy nights in the NHL, and the Oilers need to put on their work boots and hard hats and come prepared to work hard and work smart.
SNAPSHOTS…
— The past 11 games have been the worst stretch of hockey the Oilers have played in years. Some want to only blame the goalies, but that isn’t accurate. Since January 30th, the entire team has hit the ditch. Let’s look at some numbers.
In the 30 games from November 21st to January 28th, the Oilers went 22-7-1. Stuart Skinner was 13-6-1 with a .914Sv% and 2.38 GAA. Calvin Pickard was 9-1 with a .905sv% and 2.49 GAA. When both goalies have a GAA under 2.50 they are doing their jobs. The team defense overall was good, although they did rank 27th in odd-man rushes against 5×5 and 24th in high-danger chances off the rush against. Their 5×5 play was solid and they had decent contributions throughout the lineup.
Their top guys led the way offensively, eight players had five goals 5×5 and everyone had at least five points. Their possession numbers were excellent as well.
Only two skaters had a GF% below 50% and only four had an XGF% under 50%. The entire team was solid, including goaltending.
— But since then, it has been ugly for the Oilers — and
really ugly the past 11 games. Only three players (Corey Perry,
Jeff Skinner and John Klingberg) have a GF% above 50%. And before you put all the blame on the goalies during this stretch, the team’s expected goals against at 5×5 was 26. You don’t win many games with 2.36 xGA solely at 5×5. Edmonton was at 1.91 during the previous 30 games and the goalies allowed fewer goals (57) than the expected formula said they should (58). Edmonton has been very leaky defensively lately. They’ve had too many ghastly turnovers. They will be better though. They have shown they can play solid defense for long stretches, and this team has the skill to play well again.
— The offence has really struggled as well in the last 11 games. I’d be willing to bet my house we never see
Connor McDavid pointless in 11 consecutive games at 5×5. It is a major outlier, but it has happened, and it’s wild. McDavid has been outscored 16-2 at 5×5 — mind boggling. In 89 minutes of 5×5 time with Draisaitl they’ve been outscored 6-2. They have outshot teams 59-39, but they can’t score. In McDavid’s 111 minutes away from Draisaitl he’s been outscored 10-0 and outshot 65-54. You’ve never seen numbers like that from him. In Draisaitl’s 99 minutes without McDavid he’s outscored the opposition 6-5 and been outshot54-52.
In the 253 minutes without 97 or 29 on the ice the Oilers have been outscored 10-8.
Edmonton will not win games with McDavid going pointless in 11 in a row. It just won’t happen. His longest stretch in his career without a point 5×5 was six games. Obviously, he’s never had a stretch where he’s only been on the ice for two goals over 11 games and given up 16 goals.
— Once again, the Oilers need Stuart Skinner to be more consistent. His challenge is when he’s bad it is very bad. But he’s also shown an ability to bounce back.
Last season he started terribly. In his first seven starts he had an .854Sv% and 3.87 GAA. But in his final 50 games he posted a .913Sv% and 2.43 GAA.
Last year in the playoffs he had two really rough games v. Vancouver. He allowed nine goals on 28 shots. In his other 21 starts he had a .916Sv% and 2.14 GAA. Skinner isn’t elite, but he has shown long stretches where he can play well. He did that earlier in the season, and now he, along with his teammates, need to find their games again.
I understand the concern that when Skinner struggles, he really struggles, and that seems to be more mental than physical (two bad games, compared to 21 solid games in the playoffs). His really bad often skews his numbers. Last regular season he had a stretch of 50 solid games, after a dreadful first seven.
— In the playoffs, one horrific start can cost your team the series, and that is a concern. The challenge is many goalies around the NHL can also be up and down. There are only a few goalies who seem to avoid that, but that list is short and none of them are available to acquire. Many have asked the Oilers to acquire a goalie, but who? I’m not sold on John Gibson. This is his first season since 2019 where he had a Sv% above .905. He’s also battled injuries, and that concern showed up last night when he left the game in Vancouver.
Some Oilersnation readers/listeners on Sports 1440 have mentioned Jonathon Quick as an option to upgrade on Pickard. Quick is 39 years old. He had a great start to the season winning his first four games and allowing only three goals. However, did you know that in his last 12 starts dating back to November 23rd, he’s had three games with a Sv% above .900 and he’s allowed 45 goals (3.75 GAA)? I don’t see him as an upgrade.
Karel Vejmelka was never a trade option, and
he signed an extension last night. The Blues aren’t trading Jordan Binnington. So, I ask honestly: Which available goalie is an upgrade?
I don’t see one.
— Which is why I’ve said the main priority before tomorrow’s deadline needs to be upgrading their second pair right defense. They could play Brett Kulak there, but then they need a third pair LD. Either way, to me that has to be the priority. I also think they need a right shot fourth line centre, who can kill penalties and win faceoffs. But I’d have the D-man as the main focus.
— Regardless of who they had, Edmonton’s entire group needs to play better than they have recently. Get back to how they played from goalie to defense to forward and they will be in the mix to compete for the Stanley Cup.
LINEUPS
RNH – McDavid – Hyman
Podkolzin – Draisaitl – Arvidsson
Janmark – Henrique – Brown
Jones – Kapanen – Perry
Nurse– Bouchard
Kulak – Emberson
Dineen – Stecher
Skinner
I made an assumption on the D pairs, with Mattias Ekholm and John Klingberg both out. Ekholm has been battling an illness since 4-Nations. Best to get him some rest. Cam Dineen will play his first game as an Oiler and his first NHL game since 2022 when he played 34 games with Arizona. Puck moving his is forte, but he’s on the smaller size at 5’11”. Coffey might try some different D pairings at times tonight.
Max Jones will also make his Oilers debut after being acquired from Boston earlier this week. Jeff Skinner comes out. It is clear Skinner isn’t in the Oilers plans. We’ll see if he agrees to waive his NMC before tomorrow. With Trent Frederic coming soon, and Evander Kane the chances Skinner plays in games down the stretch and playoffs seem very low. If he wants to play, accepting a trade is likely his best option.
Caufield – Suzuki – Slafkovsky
Newhook – Beck – Laine
Gallagher – Dvorak – Anderson
Heineman – Evans – Armia
Matheson – Carrier
Struble – Hutson
Xhekaj – Savard
Montembeault
Nick Suzuki is on fire with 13 points in five games. He has more points in five games than the Oilers have scored goals (12) over their last five games.
TONIGHT…
Photoshop by Tom Kostiuk from Handmade by Tom
GAME DAY PREDICTION: Oilers can’t lose five in a row on home ice, can they? They find a way to get a 4-3 win.
OBVIOUS GAME DAY PREDICTION: The fans are loud. Constant chants add some excitement to the building.
NOT-SO-OBVIOUS GAME DAY PREDICTION: McDavid ends his 5×5 drought and produces his first multi-point 5×5 game since January 16th.
ARTICLE PRESENTED BY bet365
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