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Washington Nationals Jose A. Ferrer Is On The Verge Of A Major Breakout

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Entering 2024, there were high expectations for Jose Ferrer and the kind of breakout he could have after a strong 2024 season where he posted a 3.38 ERA and 2.76 FIP over 32 innings. While his season didn’t get off to the best of starts, posting an ERA over 5 in the first half of 2025, he was showing signs of turning it around, such as a 3.26 FIP and elite strike-throwing ability. He did indeed find another gear in the back half of the year, posting an ERA of 2.16 in July and 1.46 in August, finishing the second half with a FIP of 2.64 and an ERA of 3.54 after a few rocky outings in September.

The loss of Kyle Finnegan at the trade deadline was a rough blow for the Nats’ bullpen as a whole, but when it came to just the closer position, Ferrer held down the spot admirably, saving 11 games and blowing just one in the 2 months after the trade deadline. The end result in 2025 was a 4.48 ERA and 1.4 fWAR for Ferrer, not quite where fans were hoping he’d end up, but once again with impressive underlying numbers, such as a 3.03 FIP and walks per 9 under 2 for the second straight year.

There are many reasons I believe 2026 is the year Jose Ferrer turns himself from a shaky reliever with great stuff into one of the most dominant closers in baseball. For starters, the stuff he has is pure filth, such as his sinker, which he sits 97 MPH with and can run into the triple digits, as well as a changeup with similar movement but a whole 10 MPH slower.

Ferrer’s sinker is the reason he is one of the best pitchers in baseball at keeping the ball on the ground, as his 64.3% groundball rate was in the 99th percentile in MLB. Part of the reason Ferrer’s FIP is continually lower than his ERA is that he’s had incredibly sloppy infield defense behind him his whole career, something that will hopefully be improved by new field coordinator Tyler Smarslok, who took the Marlins from 29th to 14th in infield defense in one year in Miami.

Another reason I am so high on Ferrer is his ability to limit free passes, as he ranked in the 90th percentile or better in walk rate for the second straight season in 2025. Ferrer doesn’t get a crazy amount of chases on his pitches, sitting in the 51st percentile in that department, making it more impressive that someone with his stuff can control it and throw it for strikes as often as he does. Relievers can be extremely volatile, especially those that give up lots of fly balls and walks, but Ferrer is able to limit both of those at exceptional rates, giving him a very high floor for a reliever and just as high a ceiling.

The third reason, and perhaps the most important one, that I’m so high on Ferrer entering 2026 is that he has a new pitching coach that can fully maximize his potential in Simon Mathews. While Jim Hickey is not a bad baseball mind and certainly played a role in getting Ferrer to where he is now, Mathews brings knowledge to this organization that no one has before, and can help Ferrer reach that next level that he’s so close to.

Closer: Jose A. Ferrer

Ferrer took over the closer role after the deadline in '25, and showed flashes of being an effective closer. He generated elite GB rates while avoiding the barrel and limiting walks. pic.twitter.com/VlxFrigyJY

— nats_blow (@NatsBlow) November 4, 2025

So, what does Ferrer need to work on to reach his full potential next season? While it may be a little backward thinking, I think throwing fewer strikes would actually be beneficial to Ferrer’s success. By throwing more balls and risking more walks, Ferrer would see benefits such as increased strikeout numbers and less hard contact, as hitters can’t be in full attack mode knowing Ferrer is going to pound the zone.

Ferrer currently throws his sinker way more than his changeup and slider, 71% of the time in 2025, and while it’s a devastating pitch, it makes him somewhat predictable to hit against, especially for right-handed hitters, who hit .323 against him as compared to left-handed hitters, who hit .186. An increase in usage of Ferrer’s slider and changeup, both great chase pitches, each with whiff rates over 40%, would keep hitters more off balance against him, thereby raising his strikeout numbers and bumping down his hard hit rate.

Overall, while 2025 wasn’t quite the Ferrer breakout year we thought it would be, the ingredients of one of the best closers in baseball are still there, and with a new coaching staff in town, it just might be unlocked in 2026. With any luck, there will be lots of leads to protect and games to win for Ferrer as the Nationals’ closer next season.

Source: https://www.federalbaseball.com/general/87540/jose-ferrer-on-the-verge-of-major-breakout
 
Washington Nationals tender contracts to all 7 arbitration eligible players

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There was a lot of speculation ahead of tonight’s non-tender deadline. Players like Riley Adams, Jake Irvin and Luis Garcia Jr. were seen as potential non-tender candidates due to a combination of their lackluster production and projected salary. However, in a surprise twist, Paul Toboni decided to tender a contract to all 7 arbitration eligible players.

The Nationals have avoided salary arbitration and agreed to a one-year contract for 2026 with Riley Adams.

The Nationals have also tendered contracts to all of our other unsigned 40-Man Roster players.

The 40-Man Roster remains at 37.

— Nationals Communications (@NationalsComms) November 21, 2025

He has also already come to an agreement with Adams on his 2026 salary, though that figure has not been announced yet. The other six have to either come to an agreement with the team in the coming weeks or go into arbitration. I was really expecting Toboni to pull the trigger on at least one non-tender, but he did not.

Despite these players being tendered a contract, the team can still trade them at any time. I am curious to see if Garcia gets moved. He was a non-tender candidate, but he had strong underlying offensive numbers in 2025. However, we saw how bad the middle infield defense was with Abrams and Garcia. Running it back with those two would ensure a bad defensive unit.

What this means:
* Luis Garcia Jr., CJ Abrams, MacKenzie Gore, Jake Irvin, Josiah Gray and Cade Cavalli were all tendered contracts. They can either agree to a salary or go to arbitration. (Doesn't prevent Nats from trading any of them)
* Riley Adams already agreed to his salary https://t.co/xakuvoxLxN

— Mark Zuckerman (@MarkZuckerman) November 21, 2025

However, it is still a surprise to see none of Irvin, Garcia or Adams being non-tendered. Adams is particularly surprising to me. He only hit .186 with a .560 OPS in 2025. The 29 year old also graded out poorly as a framer and blocker.

This has to be the new regime believing they can unlock something from Adams. When looking at his profile, one thing stands out and it is his raw power. Riley Adams has one of the quickest bats in all of baseball. His 78.3 MPH average bat speed is top of the scale stuff. Toboni must think he can turn that raw bat speed into power production with a few tweaks.

Irvin and Garcia being tendered contracts is not overly surprising, as those were decisions that could have gone either way. If Irvin and Garcia can get back to what they were in 2024, both will be more than worth their projected salaries of $3.3 and $7 million. However, they both struggled badly in 2025, especially Irvin.

My biggest takeaway from this is that Paul Toboni is making a bet on internal improvement. He is telling the world that these players can be more productive with the coaches he is hiring. Toboni has said that there are players in the organization that have another gear to hit. We all thought he was referring to guys like Wood, Abrams and Gore, but maybe he was actually referring to depth guys like Irvin and Adams.

Tendering all 7 players is a surprising decision, but it is a statement. Toboni must believe that a lot of players on this roster will be able to elevate their games with the new coaching staff. It will be interesting to see if this ends up being the case. Sometimes not making a big move can be the best move. That is what Toboni must have been thinking here.

Source: https://www.federalbaseball.com/lat...nder-contracts-7-arbitration-eligible-players
 
Washington Nationals hire Andrew Aydt of Driveline to be the assistant hitting coach

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The Washington Nationals new regime is continuing their youth movement. While no hitting coach has been named yet, the Nats have hired an assistant hitting coach. That would be Andrew Aydt, formerly of Driveline Baseball. He is not even 30 years old yet, but he is already well known as a bright hitting mind.

Sources tell @YahooSports that the Nationals are hiring Andrew Aydt to be an assistant hitting coach on the MLB staff.

Aydt, in his late 20s, is the co-manager of Driveline’s hitting dept. Played D2 ball at McKendree University from 2017-2019.

Nats youth movement continues.

— Jake Mintz (@Jake_Mintz) November 21, 2025

Like a lot of the Nats new coaches, they played baseball in college, but not at the highest level. Aydt played D2 baseball before joining Driveline. He started as an intern before working his way up to Assistant Hitting Director. In that role, he has worked with a lot of big leaguers and has helped improve their games.

Despite never being in an MLB, or even a professional dugout, Aydt knows what it is like to work with MLB talent. He has been doing it constantly for years now. Aydt made a super cool video on how he helped Ivan Herrera of the Cardinals take his game to the next level. It is worth a watch and really made me optimistic about what he can do with our hitters.

How did Iván Herrera take the leap form being a good big league hitter to one of the best in the show? 🤔@AndrewAydt breaks down why bat speed was the common denominator — and how his EV and hard-hit rate profited as a result. pic.twitter.com/Cr6qA9a32q

— Driveline Baseball (@DrivelineBB) November 11, 2025

As he mentioned in the video, Herrera was already a good hitter, but he helped him get to the next level. Now, the Cardinals slugger is one of the most underrated hitters in the game. He hit 19 homers and posted an .837 OPS last season. Aydt helped Herrera improve his bat speed and angles to unlock that slug. Herrera always had a feel to hit, but Driveline helped unlock his power.

With that in mind, I am excited to see what he can do with the Nats hitters. CJ Abrams and Daylen Lile are two guys I think Aydt could really help. Both have a natural feel to hit, but could get to another level if they could add more bat speed. Lile does not have the quickest bat, but his feel for hitting is so good that he succeeds anyway. If he can add some power, he can become one of the better hitters in the sport. The emphasis on bat speed is likely a big reason why Riley Adams was tendered a contract as well.

We have talked a lot about Driveline in passing, but I wanted to give a better explanation of what it really is. Driveline is the top performance lab in the sport. Hitters and pitchers go there to improve their games from a biomechanics stand point. Driveline uses analytics and implements data driven instruction to unlock guys potential. A lot of former Driveline employees have gone on to have success in pro organizations.

I really love the Nats linking up with Driveline guys. Simon Mathews has ties to Driveline, but they are not as strong as Aydt. Everything Andrew Aydt knows about coaching comes from his time at Driveline. I like that he is being made an assistant as well. Having Aydt with a guy with more experience in professional baseball would create a dynamic duo.

A lot of people in the analytics space that I trust now see the Nationals as an organization on the rise. Lance Brozdowski is one of my favorite baseball commentators due to his great analytical mind. He actually put out a tweet saying the Nats have the biggest up arrow as an organization in the sport.

It might take a second to show up in MLB results, but the Nationals have the biggest up arrow on them in MLB as an org. 📈

You could argue they had bottom 5 hitting *and* pitching development over last ~3 years (MiLB results would agree). Things are changing quick. https://t.co/UzH4dE42vB

— Lance Brozdowski (@LanceBroz) November 22, 2025

He runs in the same circles as a lot of the guys the Nats hired, so he has some bias, but I am still impressed. For so long, the Nationals were behind the curve analytically. Now, for the first time in years, the Nats are innovators. That makes me so excited.

Sure, there is risk in these moves. A lot of these guys are quite green, but they are sharp. It may take a couple years for these moves to pay dividends at the MLB level, but I think they will pay off if the organization supports these guys with the right tools. This is a new era of Nationals baseball, and the Andrew Aydt hire is another example of how different this regime will be.

Source: https://www.federalbaseball.com/lat...andrew-aydt-driveline-assistant-hitting-coach
 
Five names the Washington Nationals should consider in the Rule 5 Draft

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Teams across the league had to make Rule 5 Draft related 40-man roster decisions the other day. Now that has happened and we know who is available to be selected in the Rule 5 Draft. As a bad team, the Nats are likely to pick a player because they can afford to roster that player for a full season and are in need of talent.

As always, there are interesting names available. Most of the time teams take pitchers because they are easier to hide on a roster, but I found three arms and two bats that excite me. If you want to look at all of the high profile names available, MLB Pipeline is a great resource for that.

There were 135 ranked prospects who needed to be added to 40-man rosters before yesterday's deadline, and 55 got spots.

Here's a team-by-team breakdown of which players got added and which were left unprotected for the Rule 5 Draft: https://t.co/YsFPcU6xsv pic.twitter.com/AGxpM0HR8q

— MLB Pipeline (@MLBPipeline) November 19, 2025

There are a lot of intriguing names and we will get to some honorable mentions at the end. However, there are five names I want to talk about today. All of these guys are older prospects, most of whom have spent significant time in AAA. That means they are ready to go and relatively big league ready.

The first name we will talk about is the player I have heard about the most from Nationals fans. That player is Daniel Susac of the A’s. It makes sense why Nats fans are intrigued by him. Susac is a former first round pick and is a catcher. He also has a .280 career average and .785 OPS in the minors, so it is not like the performance is bad either.

On paper, Susac is a great fit. He posted an .832 OPS in AAA and is known as a solid defender. His arm is absolutely elite and he is great at controlling the running game. Susac posts top of the scale pop time numbers.

Two knee throw out by Las Vegas Aviators Daniel Susac.
1.86 Pop Time .64 Transfer 79.4 MPH pic.twitter.com/Hd7fZBTqNE

— Jerry Weinstein (@JWonCATCHING) August 27, 2025

However, the devil is in the details. Don’t get me wrong, he would be a good selection, but there are reasons he was left unprotected. There are some serious holes in his offensive game. While the numbers look good, he chases over 35% of the time against AAA pitching. As we have seen with guys like Brady House, swing happy guys can get exposed in the MLB.

That .832 OPS is also deceiving. The Pacific Coast League is notoriously hitter friendly and an .832 OPS is about average for that league. With mediocre exit velocities and chase problems, the offense is going to be a struggle at first. His framing and blocking are also behind his throwing defensively. While Susac would be a solid pick, it would be a risk for the Nats, who need stability behind the plate.

The next two players I will discuss fall into the same category, so I will talk about them together. Both Harrison Cohen and Zach McCambley are older, MLB ready bullpen arms. If the Nats want a ready made contributor, these are names Paul Toboni will look at.

Starting with Cohen, the 26 year old Yankees relief prospect is all about deception. None of his pitches stick out when looking at stuff models, but he is tough for hitters to pick up. He has a funky leg kick that messes with the hitter’s timing. You can see that with the very low average exit velocity against of 84.4 MPH.

Harrison Cohen earned his 1st win at Triple-A Scranton, striking out two and retiring all five batters he faced. pic.twitter.com/3lIWs8gJHf

— Jewish Baseball Players (@YidInBaseball) August 4, 2025

Cohen also has a deep mix. He throws a cutter, a changeup, a 4-seamer and a slider. Very occasionally he will mix in a sinker as well. The heater is only around 93, but his stuff played in AAA. He posted a 1.57 ERA in 29 AAA outings last year. With that funky delivery, walks were an issue for Cohen, but he was so unhittable it did not matter. A cherry on top is that Cohen went to school and played at George Washington University.

Zach McCambley has a lot of similarities to Cohen. He is an older prospect and will turn 27 in May. However, he has big league stuff. McCambley has an elite feel to spin the ball. His cutter, slider and curveball all grade out very well. The cutter and slider are actually his two most used pitches.

Zach McCambley (MIA) was left off the Marlins 40-Man roster and is now eligible for the Rule 5 Draft

McCambley registered an elite 24.3 K-BB% in a relief role across AA and AAA on the heels of a nasty cutter and big sweeping slider. He is a name to watch as the draft approaches pic.twitter.com/1BUl1eEId7

— Thomas Nestico (@TJStats) November 19, 2025

McCambley put up monster strikeout numbers in AAA, with a K rate over 30%. While he does not generate soft contact to the level of Cohen, he has better control. McCambley walked less than 8% of hitters in AAA. The high strikeout and low walk numbers are very good indicators of success.

One drawback for McCambley besides his age is his fastball quality. His heater is only 94 MPH and does not have great shape. He does not throw it much, instead relying on his breaking stuff. That lack of a plus heater caps his ceiling, but he is a safe bet to be a quality relief arm, which the Nats need.

Back to the offensive side of the ball, T.J. Rumfield is a name to look at if the Nats want to select a bat. The Yankees prospect has the look of a prototypical slugger at 6’5 225 pounds. However, his contact skills and feel for hitting stand out more than his raw power.

The exit velocity data is actually Rumfield’s biggest flaw. However, if he can somehow find more juice, he could be a legitimate starting first baseman. Rumfield is a master at pulling the ball in the air, so he can tap into the power he has. That is a big reason why he has hit at least 15 homers in each of the last three Minor League seasons despite mediocre EV numbers.

T.J. Rumfield is a prospect I followed during 2025, and he didn't get too much attention. While the QoC wasn't great, he excels at turning on pitches, pulling the ball, and has very low whiff rates on FAs. If he can increase his bat speed, he can be solid at the MLB level. pic.twitter.com/JMuHKBoG3f

— Running From The OPS (@OPS_BASEBALL) November 4, 2025

Rumfield strikes out less than 20% of the time and walks nearly 12% of his AB’s. That gives him a high floor as a big league bat. He is already 25 years old, so I am not sure how much impact will come. With all the first baseman in free agency, would carrying Rumfield for a full season be worth it? It would be interesting to see how much playing time he would get if he were taken. Would he be a bench bat or would he start more regularly? Rumfield has some real talent, but there are also plenty of question marks.

The last guy I want to talk about comes from the Red Sox system, Paul Toboni’s old stomping grounds. That would be left handed pitcher Hayden Mullins. Despite being 25 years old, Mullins has not pitched above AA. However, he was dominant last season and has exciting stuff. He even struck out Giancarlo Stanton while the big slugger was on a rehab assignment.

Just a casual Thursday with Hayden Mullins striking out Giancarlo Stanton 🫡 pic.twitter.com/tzV5Nwib1t

— Portland Sea Dogs (@PortlandSeaDogs) June 12, 2025

There is a lot to like with this player. While he does not have premium velocity, Mullins’ fastball plays up due to its explosive life and deception. He also has two above average breaking balls with a slider and a cutter. Mullins just carved up High-A and Double-A, posting a 2.21 ERA with 123 strikeouts in 101.2 innings. The walks were an issue, with Mullins issuing 51 last season. However, batters only hit .177 against him.

Mullins is a starter right now, but he would likely work as a multi-inning reliever in the big leagues, at least to start. He is a riskier bet than the two relief arms, but he has a chance to be a quality starter in the future. Paul Toboni also knows a lot about this player, having played a big part in drafting and developing him. He would know if Mullins is worth a shot.

These are the five players I am looking at the hardest, but there are more to consider. Another Red Sox prospect to watch is Yordanny Monegro. He will miss all of next season due to Tommy John Surgery, but he is only 23. If he misses the whole season, the Nats only have to roster Monergro for 90 days in 2027. It is a very interesting upside bet because Monegro was dominant before getting hurt.

The Nats are very likely to take someone in the Rule 5 Draft. In the past few years, the Nats have had mixed results. Nasim Nunez looks like a good pickup, but Thad Ward and Evan Reifert did not work out. Hopefully Paul Toboni can find us a hidden gem on December 10th.

Source: https://www.federalbaseball.com/gen...ington-nationals-should-consider-rule-5-draft
 
Three Washington Nationals players who could thrive with the new regime

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One thing that the Toboni regime has clearly emphasized is that the players on the roster have another gear to reach. Toboni has said that both in his words and his actions. By tendering contracts to all 7 of the Nats arbitration eligible players, Toboni is betting on internal improvement. Here are three players that could be helped by his new development infrastructure.

I am going to stay away from the team’s star players, so no James Wood, CJ Abrams or even Daylen Lile. They have all shown they can be highly productive. I believe the new player development will help, but this is more about true breakouts. There are three names that fit the bill for me.

The first one is a player who broke through in 2025, but has another level to reach. That is reliever Cole Henry. After finally overcoming a litany of injury setbacks, the 2020 second rounder finally made his MLB debut. Whenever he pitched in the Minors, the right hander was productive, but he was rarely healthy. That is why he was moved to the bullpen this year.

In his first season as a reliever, Henry was solid but not spectacular. He posted a 4.27 ERA in 57 appearances. For most of the season that number was under 4, but Henry wore down in September. That is understandable given his injury history. The reason he is here is not even his underlying numbers, as those were all higher than his ERA.

The reason to bet on Henry is his stuff. On a lot of these stuff models, Henry’s name comes up. His fastball was seen as comparable to Joe Ryan and Tatsuya Imai. Henry’s curveball is also seen as an elite pitch by models, with a 113 stuff+. With more innovative pitching minds helping him out, Henry could become an excellent reliever.

If I had to pick one Nat who could break out under the new regime, it might be Cole Henry. He keeps popping up on all these lists of guys with the best stuff. https://t.co/98MPFU5Nxs

— Andrew Flax (@ajflax) November 22, 2025

For Henry, it is all about improving his command. He walked over 13% of hitters and also hit 11 guys. If he can tighten up that command, he has the stuff to be a good bullpen piece. He is a tough look for hitters and has now proven to be healthy. At just 26, he could be an arm on the rise in 2026.

The next guy I want to talk about is also an arm with injury history in Cade Cavalli. After missing most of the last two seasons following Tommy John Surgery, Cavalli was finally on the mound again in 2025. Despite up and down results in the Minors and MLB, he still showed elite stuff.

Like Henry, Cavalli’s pitches grade out very well on models. While he does not have the control problems Henry does, Cavalli’s command still needs work. He throws strikes, but not quality strikes. That is why he struggled to put hitters away.

A pitcher with Cavalli’s arsenal should not be striking out under 20% of hitters. Hitters were also hitting almost .290 against him, which is insane because his stuff is fantastic. There was a great thread about how Cavalli can be a breakout candidate because of his stuff.

Cade Cavalli, Bound to Breakout:

A Thread🧵 pic.twitter.com/LqzynzjSxs

— Remi Bunikiewicz (@RBunikiewicz) August 17, 2025

The main thing that needs to improve for him is sequencing and execution. He has a lot of great pitches, but it is all about using them correctly. Cavalli was hanging too many breaking balls in two strike counts last year. There could also be a new pitch that could help unlock Cavalli that Simon Mathews may teach him. Right now, he does not throw a true slider, so that could be something to watch for.

Cade Cavalli has the look of a frontline starter. He is a thick 6’4 223 pounds with a fastball that averages 97. His curveball just falls off the table and his changeup has tremendous fade. The new regime needs to find a way to connect all of those pieces and make him into the beast he has the potential to be.

The last guy on the list is the most famous player we will talk about. That is former number two overall pick Dylan Crews. Crews was one of the best college baseball players of the last decade at LSU, but things have not come as easy in the MLB.

In 116 career games, Crews is only hitting .211 with a .634 OPS. That is very disappointing for a player as highly touted as Crews. Dylan Crews was seen as a super safe prospect as well, so seeing him struggle has been alarming.

We have seen some flashes from Crews. When he is at his best, Crews can be an exciting blend of power, speed and defense. He also has a lot of leadership qualities, which will be needed in this young clubhouse. However, he has to produce to be a true leader.

unless we put on the best dang talent show this town's ever seeen ……..,… pic.twitter.com/iFcV69jKlB

— Washington Nationals (@Nationals) September 23, 2025

Right now the biggest problem for Crews is his angles. He is hitting too many ground balls and not pulling the ball in the air enough to unlock his power. Crews has a GB% over 50%, which is much higher than you would like.

Last season Crews also ran into whiff problems, which were unusual for him. His whiff rate was over 30% last year, which was much higher than his minor league numbers or his numbers in the MLB in 2024. Crews was not crushing fastballs the way he was throughout his career before 2025.

From my untrained eye it looked like his timing was off and he was unsettled in the box. Crews looked very uncomfortable at the plate. However, the tools are still there. Crews hits the ball hard and has good bat speed. I think he is waiting to be unlocked by the right hitting coach. We know Darnell Coles was not that guy, but I trust the new regime to help him make some tweaks.

2026 will be a year where internal improvement is a massive theme. A lot of the Nats core players underwhelmed last year. Many fans blamed the coaching staff for that. Now that they are gone, we will see how much a new staff can really unlock these players.

Source: https://www.federalbaseball.com/gen...ton-nationals-players-could-thrive-new-regime
 
The Washington Nationals should pursue Emilio Pagan in free agency

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As every Nationals fan knows, the bullpen was an absolute disaster in 2025. The unit’s 5.59 ERA was by far the worst in baseball. We all know reinforcements are needed, but where will they come from? One player I think the Nationals need to look at is Emilio Pagan.

Last season Pagan had a fantastic bounceback season, posting a 2.88 ERA and saving 32 games for the Reds. Interestingly, Pagan’s turnaround also lines up with when Simon Mathews became the Reds assistant pitching coach. Now Mathews is in DC and hopefully he can lure the Reds closer.

Reports have already indicated that Pagan will have plenty of suitors this offseason. At least 10 teams are already in the mix for Pagan. The right handers swing and miss stuff and cheaper price tag compared to other relievers makes him a compelling target.

“At least 10 teams” are expressing interest in free-agent RHP Emilio Pagan, per @GDubMLB pic.twitter.com/uC3wtLz9Lz

— MLB Deadline News (@MLBDeadlineNews) November 16, 2025

At 34 years old, Pagan has been doing this a long time and we know who he is. Pagan is a reliever with nasty stuff that strikes out a ton of batters, but he has a home run problem. That has always been the issue with him and it is why he has never been a truly elite closer. For his career, Pagan has allowed 1.51 HR/9. However, his strikeout rate of over 10 per nine and his good control make up for his homer problem.

CIN RHP Emilio Pagan (Unrestricted FA) 34 years old
Market Value: 12 Mil
2025 stats:
68 games
66.2 IP
2.97 ERA
3.80 FIP
10.67 K/9
2.97 BB/9
1.35 HR/9
32% Chase%
30% Whiff%
0.9 fWAR pic.twitter.com/OMramfbL9u

— Baseball Unstitched Podcast (@BaseUnstitched) September 26, 2025

Pagan is a true fly ball pitcher, but when he is at his best those flyballs are pop ups and the rest of his outs are strikeouts. Last season he showcased a filthy three pitch mix. The fastball is his bread and butter pitch. In 2025 Pagan threw his heater over 60% of the time.

Despite the heavy usage, batters only hit .171 against the fastball and had a whiff rate of nearly 25%. Pagan’s fastball has good velocity at 95.8 MPH, but the shape is what makes it stand out. He gets 18.5 inches of IVB from a 42 degree arm angle. That makes his fastball like it is rising.

Along with the heater, Pagan has a nasty splitter he throws to lefties and a cutter he throws to righties. The split was better last year, but both were effective offerings. There is a lot to like when looking at what Pagan did last year. Despite his FIP being in the high 3’s, the statcast data suggests he was not getting lucky.

Emilio Pagán is high on our #Dbacks FA wishlist.

68.2 IP
81 SO
2.88 ERA
0.92 WHIP
32 SV / 2 HD
2.0 WAR

His savant profile is RED. pic.twitter.com/eZgfnOzZYV

— SleeperDiamondbacks (@SleeperDbacks) November 21, 2025

With how Pagan improved last year, I wonder if he would want to keep working with Simon Mathews. Last year Pagan’s fastball was over a tick harder than it was in 2024, going from 94.6 MPH to 95.8. It is very possible that Mathews helped him make a tweak to find some velocity. A player in their mid 30’s finding that velocity is rare, so it must have been something mechanical.

Overall, Pagan is a quality high leverage arm which the Nationals desperately need. Besides Jose A. Ferrer, there are a ton of question marks in the Nats bullpen. Clayton Beeter has nasty stuff, but has major strike throwing concerns. PJ Poulin is crafty, but does he have the stuff? Cole Henry has some intriguing traits but strikethrowing is also an issue for him.

The Nats desperately need to grab at least one reliable high leverage in free agency. They could swing for a bigger name, but Pagan makes sense. He turns 35 in May, so he is likely to get a 2 year deal. I think a 2 year deal worth 11-12 million a year is a fair deal for both sides. The Nats bullpen needs to become respectable again and Emilio Pagan can help the cause.

Source: https://www.federalbaseball.com/gen...ton-nationals-pursue-emilio-pagan-free-agency
 
Building A Lineup Of The Washington Nationals Best Offseason Signings

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While the Nationals have not been extremely active on the free agent market in the past few seasons, there was once a time when they would spend as big as anyone, bringing in stars such as Max Scherzer on lucrative deals. Today, I’m taking a look at the best free agent signings the Nationals have had at every offensive position.

Catcher: Kurt Suzuki (2019-2020)

While the Nationals don’t exactly have a long and storied history at the catcher position, they have had some solid ballplayers come along throughout the years, and Kurt Suzuki was the definition of solid in his time in DC. Signed to a 2-year, 10 million contract before the 2019 season, Suzuki split the catching duties with Yan Gomes (who was acquired via a trade with Cleveland that same offseason), catching 85 regular-season games total that year and posting a 105 wRC+ and 0.5 fWAR.

Perhaps more important than the surface stats for Suzuki were his clutch moments, such as his legendary 3-run shot off Edwin Diaz to cap a 7-run 9th inning comeback or his go-ahead homer in Game 2 of the World Series, and his veteran leadership, which no doubt also helped him land a big league managing gig with the Angels this offseason. While Suzuki never won any major accolades during his time in DC and never even really was the Nats’ primary catcher, his contributions to the franchise were a steal for his contract and will never be forgotten.

First Base: Adam Dunn

Like catcher, the Nationals haven’t exactly had a tradition of excellence at first base in their history, but it is filled with tons of solid ballplayers, such as Adam LaRoche, Michael Morse, and Nick Johnson. The problem, however, is that all of these men were acquired via trade rather than free agency, which leaves us with the Big Donkey, Adam Dunn, as the best free agent first baseman in Nats history. After 5 consecutive 40+ home run seasons, Dunn made the surprising decision to sign with the Nationals, who were coming off a 103-loss season, which was the worst in all of baseball.

While not a lot of great baseball was played by the Nats in those years, Dunn was one of the few bright spots, hitting 76 home runs and posting 4 fWAR in his 2 years with the club. While the bat remained consistent in his 2 years in DC, the defense vastly improved when he was moved to first base full-time in 2010 after one of the worst defensive seasons ever in left field in 2009. Overall, Dunn didn’t win awards or host a championship trophy like some other names on this list, but he was a fun ballplayer to watch during the infant years of the Washington Nationals.

Second Base: Daniel Murphy

Unlike catcher and first base, this is a rather easy decision, as Daniel Murphy is the best second base free agent signing in Nationals history, and one of the best bargains they’ve ever had at that. After a generational playoff run with the Mets in 2015, Murphy decided to join the division rival Nationals on a 3-year, 37.5 million contract, a decision that lost him a lot of his love from the fans in Queens.

While Murphy was seen as a solid high-floor second baseman who got hot for one postseason entering 2016, that all changed after his first season in DC, where he posted a 154 wRC+ and 4.7 fWAR, finishing 2nd in NL MVP voting in the process. He helped turn around the culture in DC after the 2015 Nationals collapsed despite a stacked roster, and was a fan favorite due to his goofy personality, encapsulated in his “fwah” catchphrase after home runs.

While he didn’t maintain his MVP-level performance in his final 1.5 years with the Nats, he was still an extremely productive ballplayer, posting a 135 wRC+ and 3.6 fWAR in 2017. Daniel Murphy ranks high on my list of former Nationals who I wish had gotten to be around for the 2019 title run, because in his time with the Nats, he was critical in making them one of the strongest offenses in the National League.

Third Base: Jeimer Candelario

The Nats have remained largely in-house at the third base position in their history, going from two high draft picks in Ryan Zimmerman to Anthony Rendon from 2005 to 2019, with Yunel Escobar as a stopgap in 2015, and have bounced around between youngsters, such as Carter Kieboom and Brady House, and middling free agent signings, such as Starlin Castro and Maikel Franco, since. One name that sticks out despite their short tenure in DC, however, is Jeimer Candelario, acquired for 1 year, 5 million in the winter before the 2023 season after being non-tendered by the Tigers.

Coming off a disappointing 2022 season in which he posted an 80 wRC+, Candelario was mainly a rebound project for the rebuilding Nats, and rebound he did, posting a 118 wRC+ and 3.2 fWAR in 99 games before being flipped at the deadline to the Cubs for left-handed pitcher DJ Herz, one of the brighter young arms for the Nats currently. Candelario would sign a 3-year, 45 million contract with the Reds before the 2024 season, but would be released after posting -1 fWAR in 132 games for them in 2024 and 2025, making his resurgence for the Nationals in 2023 all the more peculiar. Nevertheless, Candelario was exactly what the Nationals needed him to be in his short stint with them, a productive ballplayer who returned a future big league asset in a trade.

Shortstop: Cristian Guzman

Shortstop is another difficult one to make a choice for, as all the best shortstops in Nats history have either been homegrown, such as Ian Desmond, or acquired via trade, such as Trea Turner and CJ Abrams. While not a flashy choice, Cristian Guzman played 550 games in a Nationals uniform across 6 seasons, posting 4.1 fWAR during that span. After spending the first 6 seasons of his career with the Twins, Guzman signed a 4-year, 16.8 million deal with the Nationals before their inaugural season in the nation’s capital.

After a shockingly bad 2005 in which Guzman posted a 48 wRC+ and -1.2 fWAR and missing the 2006 season due to injury, it looked like Guzman’s tenure in DC was heading towards disaster. That was until, after returning from injury late into 2007, Guzman looked like a brand new ballplayer, posting a 123 wRC+ and 1.4 fWAR in 46 games. He would continue it into 2008 as well, posting a 106 wRC+ and 2.8 fWAR in 138 games, earning himself a 2 year, 16 million extension with the club.

While Guzman’s numbers regressed in 2009 and 2010, he did have one major contribution to the ballclub, and that was being traded for Tanner Roark at the 2010 trade deadline from the Rangers. Not every free agent signing is going to be a Daniel Murphy, and sometimes, that’s just fine.

Left Field: Jayson Werth

One of the easier calls on this list, Jayson Werth signing a 7-year, 126 million contract with the Nationals before the 2011 season was laughed at by baseball fans at the time. 7 years, 808 games, 2 top 20 MVP voting finishes, and one legendary playoff walk-off home run later, it is now seen as a contract that shifted the culture of Nationals baseball for the better.

Not only was Werth a great baseball player (in the first half of his time in DC at least), he was also a great leader, responsible for teaching the blossoming Nats how to win and be accountable for one another. His prime in DC came from 2012 to 2014, where he posted 11.1 fWAR and posted at least an .840 OPS in all 3 years. Werth’s numbers and durability sprawled off in the final 3 years of his contract, but he had already paid off his contract with his clutch moments and leadership in the clubhouse.

Center Field: Rick Ankiel

Center field was an especially tricky one to pick for the Nats as as far as I can tell, the club has almost never had a starting center fielder acquired via free agency, with the position being filled almost entirely in-house or with players acquired in other methods, such as Denard Span via trade and Alex Call via waivers. Of the players who qualify here, Ben Revere and Willie Harris were not very good in their tenures with the Nats, making Rick Ankiel the winner almost by default.

Ankiel signed a 1-year, 1.5 million deal with the Nats before the 2011 season, and while his bat lagged behind, posting just an 82 wRC+, he played some mighty fine defense, resulting in a 1.2 fWAR in 122 games that season. While he’d lose his starting spot to the young, fiery Bryce Harper in 2012, Ankiel was a solid enough bench player for the club that season, posting an 81 wRC+ and hitting 5 home runs in 68 games. Over a total of 190 games with the Nats, Ankiel posted 1 fWAR, certainly nothing to write home about, but enough to qualify as the best Nationals center field free agent signing in their history.

Right Field: Gerardo Parra

With another position that is so thin in free agent signings, it’s only right to go with one of the hearts of the 2019 Nationals roster, even if the numbers weren’t quite there. The Nationals signed Parra in May of 2019 to help fill a hole on their injury-riddled roster, and he immediately made his presence known with a go-ahead grand slam against the Dodgers in one of his first games with the club. His playing time shrank as the club got healthier, but Parra was still one of the most essential players on the roster due to how loved he was in the clubhouse, as demonstrated by how his baby shark celebration caught on with the entire team. In 89 games for the 2019 Nats, Parra posted an 89 wRC+ and 0.3 fWAR, being just what they needed both off the bench and in the clubhouse at that time. Parra would return to the Nats in 2021 and post -0.3 fWAR over 53 games, but this ranking is purely for his contributions during that magical 2019 season.

Designated Hitter: Jesse Winker

This was one of the closest calls between Jesse Winker and Josh Bell (just his 2025 season, as during his first stint, he was acquired via trade), but I am giving the edge to Winker due to slightly better production and lower expectations entering his season. Winker joined the Nats in 2024 after a disastrous 2023 season with the Brewers in which he posted a 67 wRC+ and 0.8 fWAR, and like Candelario the year before him, he was viewed as a bounceback candidate rather than a real threat in the lineup. Luckily for the Nats, Winker indeed found his old form in his half-season in DC, posting a 125 wRC+ and 1.4 fWAR in 101 games before being traded to the Mets at the deadline for right-handed pitcher Tyler Stuart, who is currently at Triple A for the Nationals. Winker was everything the Nats could’ve hoped for and more when they brought him in, providing great offense and a strong clubhouse presence before being flipped for future big league help at the trade deadline.

Source: https://www.federalbaseball.com/gen...-washington-nationals-best-offseason-signings
 
The Sonny Gray trade gives the Washington Nationals an idea of a potential MacKenzie Gore return

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We saw the first major starting pitching trade of the offseason this afternoon when the St. Louis Cardinals sent veteran Sonny Gray to the Red Sox for prospects Brandon Clarke and Richard Fitts. There are a lot of starters who could be on the block this offseason, including Nationals ace MacKenzie Gore, so this move has the potential to create a domino effect.

I want to take a look at what this move means for the Nats because there are a couple things to explore here. The first one is the simplest. This move likely takes the Red Sox out of the Gore sweepstakes. While Gray is not the surefire number two starter Red Sox fans have been clamoring for, I am not sure Gore is that either. If the Red Sox are going to make another pitching move, it would likely be for a proven number two starter like Joe Ryan.

It would be foolish to totally rule out the Red Sox pulling the trigger, but this move makes it much less likely. Gore and Gray were actually pretty similar pitchers in 2025. Both are high strikeout guys who have trouble limiting hard contact. They also had much better underlying numbers than their ERA’s which were in the 4’s.

For 2 years of control of 36 year old Sonny Gray, the Cardinals got a 50 FV prospect and a 25 year old former 50 FV prospect starter from the Red Sox. Gore had a similar 2025 to Gray (mid results but strong underlying numbers) and is younger and much, much cheaper pic.twitter.com/9a0gwj31gj

— Paul Cubbage (@PaulCubbage23) November 25, 2025

However, Gore is going to be more valuable on the trade market for three big reasons. The first one is that he is a lot younger than Sonny Gray. Gore will be going into his age 27 season while Gray will be entering his age 36 campaign. Obviously that means Gore has much more untapped potential and is not in any risk of age related regression.

The second big reason is money. MacKenzie Gore is way cheaper than Sonny Gray. According to MLB Trade Rumors’ estimate, Gore is set to make $4.7 million in arbitration this year. Even if that number is not exactly what he will make, it is in that ballpark.

Meanwhile, Sonny Gray is going to cost the Red Sox a pretty penny financially. In the trade process, Gray re-worked his contract and the Cardinals ate some cash to make things easier financially. However, Gray still won’t be cheap. There are a lot of moving pieces, but practically, the Red Sox are paying Sonny Gray $21 million for one year.

That is a lot of money and also brings us to our final point of difference which is team control. While the Red Sox technically have a mutual option for 2026, they are unlikely to pick up the option which would pay Gray $30 million for his age 37 season. So in reality, this is a one year deal.

MacKenzie Gore has another year of cheap team control in 2027 which makes him even more valuable. The dark cloud which is the upcoming CBA negotiations may make some teams wonder about the 2027 season, but the Nationals need to get a return that assumes games will be played that season. While MacKenzie Gore and Sonny Gray are about equal in terms of impact, Gore has some things going for him that make him more valuable in a trade.

Despite all of that, the Cardinals still got a nice return for Gray. They got two solid young pitchers. While Richard Fitts was the second piece, he is still an interesting arm. He is only 25 years old and has some MLB experience. The numbers do not jump off the page, but his stuff is good and has some developmental runway.

Richard Fitts (acquired by STL) is a young strike-throwing righty who flashed vastly improved stuff after joining the Red Sox. His 2025 season had glimpses of backend-rotation upside, but inconsistencies and injuries put a damper on his year

He is expected to be ready for Spring pic.twitter.com/iVQd0K53zB

— Thomas Nestico (@TJStats) November 25, 2025

Fitts is a high probability back of the rotation starter who has a chance to be a mid rotation guy if everything goes right. That is not bad for a second piece. If the Nats can get an arm like this as a secondary piece in a Gore trade I would be quite happy.

The biggest piece of the trade is left handed pitcher Brandon Clarke. He is listed as the Red Sox number five prospect on MLB Pipeline, but there are a lot of varying opinions around the southpaw. He had a ton of helium early in the season, but injuries and strike throwing concerns slowed down his hype train.

However, he is a left handed pitcher who can touch 100 and has an absolutely wicked slider that some scouts put an 80 grade on. That two pitch combination can absolutely carve up hitters when he is on his game. An optimist would say that Clarke has the raw stuff to be a high end starter one day.

22 year old LHP Brandon Clarke should NOT go unnoticed in this morning’s trade.

He possesses a 100 mph fastball, w/ a 70 grade slider. Elite K-stuff, needs to work on command.

Freak athlete. JUCO product. pic.twitter.com/9ddT2rbKfv

— Sam Fosberg (@discussbaseball) November 25, 2025

However, the bear case is that he is a reliever. There are a lot of signs pointing in that direction. He walked over 6 batters per 9 last year and he only threw 38 innings. Clarke also has a lengthy injury history. There is also not much beyond the fastball and slider. In fact, he is most likely to be a reliever, but he could be a dominant one.

This is not a bad package for an expensive 36 year old on a one year deal who is coming off a season where his ERA was over 4. With that in mind, Gore is likely to fetch a top 70 prospect as a headliner as well as multiple interesting secondary pieces.

A package from the Cubs that consists of Jaxon Wiggins, Jonathan Long and James Triantos could be a deal that makes sense for both sides. Wiggins is that top 75 prospect to headline the package. Long is an MLB ready masher that can play first base and Triantos is a contact heavy guy who can be a decent big leaguer.

That is just a suggestion, but after the Gray trade, it is not an overly rich package. The offseason seems to finally be heating up lately. Paul Toboni has not done a whole lot yet, but I am confident that he is ready to strike and make some fun moves soon.

Source: https://www.federalbaseball.com/gen...ationals-idea-potential-mackenzie-gore-return
 
Three non-tendered players the Washington Nationals should consider signing

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The non-tender deadline has come and gone. With teams making cuts, there are some new additions to the free agent market. While most teams, including the Nationals decided to tender contracts to many of the players seen as non-tender candidates, there are a few interesting new additions to the free agent pool. I am going to take a look at three players that fit the Nats.

The first player we will talk about is a former All-Star and the starting catcher of the World Series champion Texas Rangers. Back in 2023, Jonah Heim was one of the best catchers in baseball. He played Gold Glove defense while being an above average hitter in Texas.

Heim also had some big moments in the Rangers playoff run. Most notably he smashed the go-ahead homer in Game 6 of the ALCS. That helped the Rangers overcome the mighty Astros and reach the World Series. However, Heim has fallen on hard times the past couple years. His glove has gone from elite to average and the bat has fallen off a cliff.

Jonah Heim hit a huge home run in Game 6 of the 2023 ALCS to give the Rangers a lead they would not relinquish. pic.twitter.com/cvJDHoJ4rI

— Jared Sandler (@JaredSandler) November 21, 2025

Heim is still only 30 years old and the Nats need catching help. A lot of Rangers hitters have had tough to explain fall offs since 2023, so this could be a Texas thing rather than a Heim thing. The Rangers home ballpark has also become extremely pitcher friendly over the past couple of years.

Heim could be a bounce back candidate and he also has a connection to the Nats now. Paul Toboni and Blake Butera hired Bobby Wilson from Texas to be the team’s catching coordinator. Obviously, Heim has a lot of familiarity with Wilson, so that connection could be useful. Heim does not even have to get back to his 2023 form. If he can get back to being a solid starting catcher that would be a win for the Nats.

The next player I am going to discuss is also a Texas Ranger. Jacob Webb was one of the more surprising non-tenders this year. Despite posting a 3.00 ERA across 55 outings, the Rangers decided to cut bait with the reliever. Over the last three years, Webb has been one of the most reliable and consistent relievers in baseball, with a 3.22 ERA in 169 outings.

In a pretty surprising move yesterday, the Rangers non-tendered Jacob Webb, who will certainly garner interest on the open market. There are two changes I think he needs to make, but Webb is one of the better relievers available in free agency. pic.twitter.com/NHwNNPAJZX

— Matthew Knauer (@matthewk36711) November 22, 2025

So why did the Rangers cut bait? Well, the advanced numbers are much more split on Webb. His FIP and xFIP were 4.30 and 4.55 respectively. However, his xERA of 3.09 is much more in line with his ERA numbers. Webb is not a hard thrower, but he generates a lot of soft contact. His 86.6 MPH average exit velocity is in the 95th percentile.

That ability to produce weak contact is why his BABIP has been below .250 each of the last three years. A low BABIP can be seen as lucky, but when you do it every year and produce a lot of soft contact, it is skill not luck.

Webb is now one of the better relief arms on the market. He may not be a closer, but he could easily be a setup man for the Nats. Webb could be one of those players that the Nats sign and then flip at the deadline. I don’t think it made much sense to non-tender him and the Nats should take advantage.

The last player I will discuss also played in Texas, but Ramon Urias played for the Astros. At least he played for the Astros in the second half of the season. For the last few years, Urias was a mainstay for the Orioles. He was a solid player in Baltimore, but not a star.

Since 2021, Urias has been average or slightly above average on both sides of the ball. He had a real breakout year in 2022 which he has not been able to replicate, but he has still been a quality player. Urias can also play multiple positions.

What a catch by Ramón Urías! 👏 pic.twitter.com/2FUs01yHTe

— MLB (@MLB) July 10, 2025

He was a good defender at second and third base last season. Urias is also a steady offensive producer. He has a similar appeal to Willi Castro, though he is not as versatile. Last season the Nats found Amed Rosario and he was very good as a utility infielder. Urias can play a similar role, though he is more of a defensive minded player.

If the Nats trust Nasim Nunez to be their utility man this would not make as much sense. However, Urias has a much stronger track record offensively. He could also be flipped at the deadline like Rosario was. Ramon Urias is just a solid baseball player and the Nats need more of those.

There are other names that hit the market that could make sense. Adolis Garcia is a big name, but the Nats do not have much space in the outfield. Michael Toglia and MJ Melendez both have tools, but have yet to put it together. There are quite a few relievers that also make sense. However, Jonah Heim, Jacob Webb and Ramon Urias are the three names that fit the Nationals the best.

Source: https://www.federalbaseball.com/nat...players-washington-nationals-consider-signing
 
Riley Cornelio can be the next Brad Lord for the Washington Nationals

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The pitching for the Washington Nationals was mostly disastrous in 2025, but Brad Lord was a bright spot. There is a pitcher in the Nats system with a lot of similarities to Lord and could make the same kind of impact in 2026. That guy is Riley Cornelio, who had a breakout year in the minors in 2025.

After being drafted in the 7th round out of TCU in 2022, Riley Cornelio struggled in his first couple years of pro ball. He had two seasons in A ball where his ERA was over 4.50 both seasons. However, a switch flipped for Cornelio in 2025 and he looked like a different pitcher.

He went all the way from High-A to Triple-A and was highly impressive. Cornelio posted a 3.28 ERA across 134.1 innings, winning Nationals Minor League pitcher of the year in the process. He was so good that Paul Toboni decided to add him to the 40-man roster rather than risk exposing him to the Rule 5 draft. By adding him to the 40-man, Paul Toboni is indicating that Cornelio will play a role in the big leagues at some point in 2026.

Nationals select the contract of RHP Riley Cornelio. 🔥
2025 MiLB Pitcher of the Year, 3.28 ERA, 135 K.
A breakout arm the Nats weren’t risking in Rule 5. 👀 pic.twitter.com/pr4VLAhvUf

— natsfanatics (@natsfanatics_) November 18, 2025

This is very similar to what Brad Lord did in the past. Both were older, unheralded prospects who had ordinary starts to their pro careers. Then both took a leap and became some of the most productive arms in the Nats Minor League system. It is easy to envision Cornelio filling a similar swingman role as Lord did last season.

However, Cornelio’s mix makes me think he could be more of a reliever. His best pitch by far is his slider, which fangraphs gave a 70 grade to. It has sharp, late break, and gets a ton of swings and misses. In Triple-A, Cornelio’s slider had a 50% whiff rate. He only threw it 23% of the time, but in a bullpen role, he can let it rip 40 to 50% of the time.

Riley Cornelio struck out five in 5.0 scoreless innings last night for the @HbgSenators 🔥

Last five starts ⬇️
🔵 3 ER
🔵 3-0
🔵 0.94 ERA
🔵 26 Ks
🔵 .158 OBA pic.twitter.com/0kyjKCyLka

— Nationals Player Development (@Nats_PlayerDev) July 11, 2025

Another reason the bullpen could be a better home for Cornelio is that his velocity falls as he gets deeper into starts. He can start games sitting in the 96 to 97 MPH range, but it ticks down to 93-94 as the game goes on. Cornelio needs that velocity because his fastball shape is not anything special. He does not get much swing and miss on his 4-seamer or sinker.

Despite not having a great fastball, he was throwing it over 50% of the time in AAA. That is one easy change that Paul Toboni can make to his repertoire. It would even be tempting to make the slider his primary pitch because of how good it is. Cornelio also has a decent changeup.

I am pretty confident that we will see Cornelio in the MLB at some point in 2026. He will turn 26 in June, so there is not much of a reason to waste bullets in the minors if he is ready. Cornelio may not be favored to make the team out of camp, but it is something to keep an eye on.

There are a few paths he could take. He has been very durable in recent years, so he could continue on his path as a potential 5 starter. Cornelio could also be a long reliever who can go in the rotation when injuries hit, much like Brad Lord. However, I also like the idea of Cornelio being a slider heavy middle to high leverage reliever. We know the slider is big time and if he can sit at 96-97 in short bursts, the fastball will play too.

Every year there are arms that seemingly come out of nowhere. However, these guys always start somewhere. Riley Cornelio is one of those guys and I think 2026 can be a breakthrough campaign for the former 7th round pick.

Source: https://www.federalbaseball.com/gen...an-be-next-brad-lord-for-washington-nationals
 
Washington Nationals legend Anthony Rendon is expected to retire

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Anthony Rendon’s disastrous Angels tenure is finally over. Reports have come out that Rendon and the Angels are in talks to buyout the final year of his 7-year $245 million contract. He was such a great player with the Nats, but things did not work in LA due to injuries and Rendon’s prickly attitude.

NEWS: The Angels and Anthony Rendon are in talks about buying out the final year of his contract, according to a source. The expectation is that he will retire. …https://t.co/4aDKHzZvzk

— Alden González (@Alden_Gonzalez) November 26, 2025

Unfortunately, this disastrous chapter in LA will make most people forget about how great Rendon was. However, Nationals fans will always remember Rendon fondly even while the rest of the baseball world chatters about his awful Angels contract.

After being drafted sixth overall in the loaded 2011 draft class, Rendon quickly made his way through the Minor Leagues. He made his debut in April of 2013 and immediately showed promise. After a solid rookie season, Rendon had a true breakout in 2014.

At just 24 years old, Rendon posted a 6.5 WAR season and finished 5th in NL MVP voting. Nats fans fell in love with his gap to gap power and chill demeanor. He became affectionately known as Tony two bags for his ability to lace doubles. In fact, Rendon led the league in doubles in both 2018 and 2019.

From 2017 to 2019, Rendon was a top 10 player in baseball, posting three straight 5 win seasons, including two six win campaigns. He was such a well rounded player. Rendon could hit for contact, hit for power and played great defense at third base.

However, 2019 was the crowning season of his career. That year he finished third in MVP voting and just had ridiculous numbers. He hit .319 with a 1.010 OPS while hitting 34 homers, 44 doubles and drove in 126 runs. The craziest part of it all was how easy Anthony Rendon made it all look. It was just another day in the office for Tony two bags.

Anthony Rendon in 2019: 7.3 rWAR, 34 HR, 126 RBI, 44 2B, 1.010 OPS, 3rd in NL MVP, WS. pic.twitter.com/UtewX3HRTR

— Sam Fosberg (@discussbaseball) November 26, 2025

Of course, that mindset would get him into trouble later in his career, but in DC that was accepted. Baseball was always just a job to Rendon, but when he was with the Nats he was having fun at work. I remember during Spring Training one year I saw Rendon and Trea Turner just goofing around playing basketball one on one together. He was prickly with the Angels, but he never had any clubhouse problems with the Nats.

What truly cemented Rendon’s legacy in DC though was his 2019 playoff run. He was truly captain clutch for the Nats. Rendon just came through time and time again in clutch moments. He was just automatic and the stats prove it. His numbers after the 7th inning of the Nats elimination games were just stupid good.

Anthony Rendon's plate appearances in the 7th inning or later of the Nationals' five elimination games this season:

Walk, double, home run, double, home run, double, home run

— Sam Fortier (@Sam4TR) October 31, 2019

His homers off of Clayton Kershaw in the NLDS and Zack Greinke in Game 7 of the World Series were what started the Nats rallies. Rendon’s walk against Josh Hader in the Wild Card game is one of the better at bats I have ever seen as well. He just casually took some great pitches from Hader and passed the baton.

I know it is not his style, but I really hope that Rendon signs one of those one day contracts with the Nats just for some closure on his career. Knowing him, Anthony Rendon will probably never be heard from again but it would be cool if he came back to DC.

Sure, Rendon made mistakes with the Angels and his personality rubbed people the wrong way. However, I still do not think that Rendon is a bad guy. He was more involved with the Nats foundation than anyone when he was on the team and always had friends on the team in DC.

He just seems like a misunderstood character who did not quite put his best foot forward in LA. Injuries also plagued him with the Angels and it took away the traits that made him special. The spotlight that his contract created was also something Rendon did not like. He just wanted to stay in the shadows and do his job.

The rest of the baseball world may hate Anthony Rendon, but DC will always love him. There is not a World Series title in DC without Anthony Rendon. He was the best player on the team that 2019 season and his efforts will always be remembered fondly here. Thank you Anthony Rendon and congratulations on a wonderful career.

Source: https://www.federalbaseball.com/was...nals-legend-anthony-rendon-expected-to-retire
 
What should Washington Nationals fans expect from Eli Willits in 2026

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In July, the Nationals made a bold move by making 17 year old Eli Willits the youngest first overall pick of all time. Willits still has not turned 18 yet, with his birthday coming up on December 9th. However, the type of game Willits plays is very mature. That means he can move quicker than most high school prospects.

Willits has stated that one of his goals is to be in the MLB by age 20. For most players, that would be a pipe dream, but not Willits. As a 17 year old straight out of high school he hit .300 in Low-A. With that kind of production out of the gates, he is tracking to be a big leaguer at some point in 2028, which would be his age 20 season.

The thing that stands out the most about Willits’ game is how polished he is on both sides of the ball. He is such a smooth operator at shortstop and projects to be a strong defender there. Willits is a good athlete and has a strong arm for his age. He has the ability to use a bunch of different arm angles, which is very valuable at shortstop.

Easy to forget that Eli Willits is just 17 years old when you watch him operate at shortstop. One of the several athletic plays he made in his brief 15 game pro debut. pic.twitter.com/MOzpAHbNfQ

— Aram Leighton (@AramLeighton8) November 2, 2025

Eli Willits polish should not come as a surprise. His dad is former big leaguer Reggie Willits who had a successful career by playing the game the right way. Reggie Willits had to be fundamentally perfect because he had no power and his tools were limited. Eli has much better tools than his father, but still plays the game with such great fundamentals. His brother Jaxon is also the starting shortstop at Oklahoma, where Reggie Willits is an assistant coach.

It is all ball all the time for the Willits family. That makes me confident that Eli will tap into every last drop of ability he has. He has already been working hard this offseason. One thing Willits needed to do was get stronger. His exit velocities were very low, which is not super surprising given his age. However, he has been in the weight room a lot this offseason.

Eli Willits knows what he needs to do to improve. If he puts on some strength, there are no holes in his game pic.twitter.com/Oar4d6BpPO

— federalbaseball (@federalbaseball) October 23, 2025

Hopefully that added strength will result in more power. That is the only tool that Willits is missing right now. If he can even become a 15 homer guy, Willits has a very clear path to being a 5 WAR player in the big leagues someday. He is an above average defender at shortstop and a great baserunner as well.

Offensively, Willits is a smooth swinging switch hitter. He has elite bat to ball skills as well as strong plate discipline. The combination of bat to ball skills and plate discipline can be quite rare. A lot of players that are great at making contact fall into the trap of swinging at everything just because they can hit those pitches. Willits can hit those pitches, but instead decides to be selective.

"WHAT A DEBUT FOR #1 OVERALL!" 🗣️

Eli Willits has his second hit and second RBI of the night! pic.twitter.com/gsAgMMxmTz

— Fredericksburg Nationals (@FXBGNats) August 22, 2025

How fast should Nationals fans expect Willits to move? Well, given his age we won’t be seeing him in the MLB anytime soon, but he should move pretty steadily. He performed well in Low-A and will probably start there again next season. However, if he gets off to a fast start, a promotion to High-A could come quickly.

That is not just due to performance though. The Nats have a lot of middle infielders at the lower levels right now. Coy James, Luke Dickerson, Angel Feliz, Ronny Cruz, Marconi German and Brayan Cortesia are all going to need to play, but there will be a log jam.

A lot of those guys should be in Low-A, but not all of them can be because there is not enough room. If Willits is super impressive in Spring Training, there is a chance he starts the season at High-A because of this. Willits should spend most of the season at High-A in my opinion. It is a good way to get him going in pro ball.

While Wilmington is known as a pitcher friendly environment, it should not matter as much to Willits as others. He is not a home run reliant player and his bat to ball skills should translate anywhere. Due to his lack of present physicality, moving him up to Double-A should not be on the cards unless he really goes off.

However, Willits should be in Double-A in 2027 and could even reach Triple-A by the end of that season. This timeline would put him on track to be a big leaguer by the time he is 20 years old, just like he wants. Of course, Willits has to perform for this timeline to work but I am confident in him.

As long as he continues to gain strength, the rest of his game is super well rounded. In the past, the Nats have taken a lot of athletes who needed to become better at baseball. Willits is not like that at all. His baseball skills are elite, he just needs to get stronger. I am excited to follow his journey because I think he will be the next great Nats prospect.

Source: https://www.federalbaseball.com/was...ington-nationals-fans-expect-eli-willits-2026
 
Washington Nationals hire Grant Anders as MLB player development coach

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The Washington Nationals just made an interesting coaching hire. They made Grant Anders the bullpen catcher, but also an MLB player development coach. That last title is very intriguing and not a position the team had in the previous regime. However, given the youth on the roster it is a worthwhile addition to the coaching staff.

Grant Anders will be joining the Washington Nationals as an MLB development coach and bullpen catcher, per sources.

Spent the last six years with the Baltimore Orioles. Role, broadly speaking, is to work on player development at the major league level.

— Spencer Nusbaum (@spencernusbaum_) November 29, 2025

Anders is not new to this role either. He was an MLB player development analyst with the Orioles from 2021 until 2024. Then in the 2024 season he became an MLB player development coach for the O’s. After a difficult season in 2025 and staff turnover, Anders was out in Baltimore.

However, Paul Toboni has seen enough in Anders to put him on the MLB staff. Like most people in this new regime, Anders is young. He graduated from Radford in 2018, where he was the director of player development. After that, he immediately started working for MLB organizations. Anders worked for the Royals and Reds before taking a job with the O’s.

He is the epitome of that new school coach that Toboni and Butera seem to love. It is something the Nationals have needed for a while now. The coaching staff was much maligned over the last few years and these changes are the ones many fans have wanted. By making these changes, we can truly evaluate how good the players on the roster are.

While not every team has a full time MLB player development coach, they are becoming more common. Given the youth of the Nats roster, hiring a development coach makes a lot of sense. After all, player development does not just stop when you hit the MLB.

Also worth mentioning that this role does not exist in every org — but given what the Nationals need in the bigs, it makes a lot of sense to add. https://t.co/BP7SMFSkgz

— Spencer Nusbaum (@spencernusbaum_) November 29, 2025

This is just another sign that this is a new era in DC. Mike Rizzo’s way worked for a long time, but things went stale towards the end. The new leadership is bringing in a totally different philosophy and I am excited to see it.

For years my biggest complaint is that the Nats were not operating like a modern organization and were stuck in the past. Now, they are trying to innovate or at least catch up to where the smartest teams in the league are.

On the surface, this is a fairly insignificant hire. However, Grant Anders is not going to be your average bullpen catcher. He will be in the lab with the players showing them ways to get better. This kind of hands-on coaching is exactly what our young players need. Only time will tell if this experiment works out, but I love the direction Paul Toboni is taking this franchise.

Source: https://www.federalbaseball.com/lat...ire-grant-anders-mlb-player-development-coach
 
Victor Caratini is an obvious fit for the Washington Nationals

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The catcher position remains one of the Washington Nationals biggest needs. Despite bringing back Riley Adams for 2026 and having Keibert Ruiz under contract long term, that is not good enough. There have been suggestions the Nats could run it back with the same catching core, but I do not think that would be a good idea. For me, veteran Victor Caratini would be a perfect fit in DC.

I know Paul Toboni has talked a lot about how players on the roster have another gear to reach, but it would be irresponsible not to make changes behind the plate. The Nats two primary catchers last year, Keibert Ruiz and Riley Adams combined for -1.6 fWAR last year. Fangraphs wrote about the catastrophe that was the Nats catching position at one point last year.

Simply put, it was a total disaster last year. Adams and Ruiz were liabilities on both sides of the ball and did not play big league caliber ball. Toboni can talk about internal improvement all he wants, but not all the answers are coming from within. With that in mind, Victor Caratini would be a very good target for the Nats.

Unlike the Nats current crop of catchers, Caratini is solid on both sides of the ball. He has been an above average hitter each of the last two seasons, with wRC+ figures of 112 and 104. Caratini also hit a career high 12 homers despite only playing 114 games.

Victor Caratini has been among the most steady and useful players all year for the Astros. I would prioritize bringing him back in free agency. pic.twitter.com/7Ktyqph39L

— Ari Alexander (@AriA1exander) September 28, 2025

Caratini is far from a star, but he has some strong attributes. He is a switch hitter who is solid from both sides of the plate. Last season, Caratini had a .740 OPS as a right handed hitter and a .726 OPS as a lefty. For his career, he has not had large platoon splits either. Most switch hitters are better from one side, but Caratini is solid from both sides of the plate.

That means he can play against righties or lefties. His suitability to a variety of matchups is a very useful skill. Caratini also has versatility on his side as well. He has split time between catcher, first base and DH over the last couple years. That is not because he is a bad defender either. It is more about getting his bat in the lineup while the Astros play their starting catcher Yainer Diaz.

His ability to fill in at first base or DH is valuable for a Nats team that could use help at both spots. However, Caratini would be brought in mainly to catch. He had a bit of a down year defensively in 2025, but that was the first time he graded out negatively as a defender since 2021. Even in 2025 he was much better defensively than either Ruiz or Adams.

While Caratini was a slight negative as a framer last year, he has historically been very good. Given his track record, he should get back to being at least an average framer which would be a massive upgrade for the Nats.

Victor Caratini’s pitch framing is a work of art pic.twitter.com/nXlvpzIhTl

— Baseball Bros (@BaseballBros) August 14, 2020

The Nats catcher room is crowded with bodies right now with Drew Millas, Riley Adams and Keibert Ruiz. However, it is not filled with quality. Adams was a non-tender candidate, but he was brought back due to his offensive tools like his bat speed. However, he did come back on a split deal, so it is possible he could be in the Minor Leagues next year.

Ruiz is also a major question mark. His on the field play has been poor, but he is also a major injury risk now. The 27 year old spent the second half of last season battling a nasty concussion. Ruiz suffered two concussions in the matter of a couple weeks. Those head injuries put his future behind the plate at risk.

While Drew Millas has shown promise when he has played, he has never been given a real shot despite the Nats catching woes. Maybe that happens under the new regime, but the fact they brought back Adams is telling. He is also coming off an injury and his production in AAA has not been stellar.

The Nationals need a starting catcher, end of story. Whether it is this offseason or down the road, I have a hard time believing that the future of the position is currently on the roster. At 32, Caratini is unlikely to be the future either, but he will be a good stopgap. He would likely provide the best catching the Nats have had since Yan Gomes.

While I trust Toboni’s plan, I really hope the new regime does not run it back behind the plate. We have seen Ruiz and Adams underwhelm for so long now. At 27 and 29, neither are youngsters anymore either. This is a position the Nats desperately need to upgrade and Victor Caratini would be a good option.

He would not be overly expensive either. A 1-year deal at $10 million or a 2-year deal for about $17 million feel like fair proposals for him. Victor Caratini is far from an elite player but he is so much better than what the Nats have had in recent years. I just want to know what average catcher play looks like again.

Source: https://www.federalbaseball.com/general/87634/victor-caratini-obvious-fit-for-washington-nationals
 
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