The postseason field has been narrowed down to four teams, in mostly chalk fashion. Each member of the final four is a division winner, and three of the clubs received first-round byes. The Dodgers were the only club who had to advance through the wild card round, and the reigning World Series champs aren’t exactly underdogs. In fact, all of the Brewers, Mariners, and Blue Jays had a lot more questions to answer about their playoff readiness given a recent lack of postseason success, yet all three teams were up to the task in winning their League Championship Series matchups.
Only the Yankees have reached the World Series more times than the Dodgers, who are vying for the franchise’s 23rd trip to the Fall Classic. Los Angeles is the defending champion aiming for its third ring in six seasons, against three teams with much less of a postseason resume. The Blue Jays are a perfect 2-0 in the club’s only two World Series appearances, but they last reached the Series in 1993. The Brewers’ lone Series appearance was so long ago (in 1982) that the club was still in the American League, and Milwaukee fell to the Cardinals in a seven-game nail-biter. The Mariners can get a big albatross off their backs just by winning the AL pennant, as Seattle is the only team in Major League Baseball to have never reached a World Series.
The ALCS between the
Mariners and
Blue Jays carries some added historical import since the two teams both joined MLB in 1977. The only previous playoff series between the two expansion cousins took place in 2022, when Seattle swept Toronto in two games in the best-of-three wild card series, and made an epic comeback from an 8-1 run deficit to capture a 10-9 win in Game 2. That crushing loss was part of the 0-6 playoff record the Jays carried during the
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. era, before Toronto broke out with a dominant win over the Yankees in this year’s ALDS.
Blue Jays hitters erupted for 34 runs and a collective .338/.373/.601 slash line over the four games against New York. While that level of an explosion came as a surprise, Toronto led the league in both batting average and OBP this season, while also finishing near the top of the table in runs and OPS. Seattle’s season-long numbers weren’t quite as impressive, yet the club has been one of baseball’s best offensive teams since
Josh Naylor and
Eugenio Suarez were acquired at the trade deadline. Led by these two big bats,
Julio Rodriguez,
Jorge Polanco, and the all-around brilliance of MVP candidate
Cal Raleigh, the Mariners’ powerful lineup will provide the Jays’ pitching staff with a huge challenge.
In terms of run prevention, the Blue Jays have a significant edge on defense. Toronto had a collective +51 Defensive Runs Saves and +14 Outs Above Average in the regular season, in comparison to Seattle’s +9 DRS and -30 OAA. This could potentially help the Jays counter the Mariners’ deeper rotation, as with
Bryan Woo expected to return from injury in the ALCS, all five of the M’s regular starters will be available in some capacity. How exactly those starters will be deployed is still a matter of debate, as
George Kirby,
Logan Gilbert, and
Luis Castillo all had to pitch during Seattle’s 15-inning marathon with the Tigers in Game 5 of the ALDS.
The Blue Jays held a 4-2 edge in the season series with the Mariners this year, and have the homefield advantage as the AL’s top seed. That is a significant point for a Jays team that is 56-27 at Rogers Centre during the regular season and playoffs, plus the Mariners’ road record is only 40-43. Turning to the National League, the Brewers and Dodgers each had identical 52-29 home records in the regular season, and Milwaukee was an impressive 45-36 away from home, while the Dodgers were only 41-40 on the road.
The other eye-opening statistic is Milwaukee’s perfect 6-0 record in head-to-head play against Los Angeles this season. As daunting as the
Dodgers’ star-studded roster may be, the
Brewers have had their number in 2025, and will now have to try and do it again in the postseason. L.A. has won the only two prior postseason series between the two franchises, including a seven-game win in the 2018 NLCS.
That 2018 season marked the last time the Brew Crew won a playoff series until their five-game win over the Cubs in this year’s NLDS. The series as a whole was a demonstration of the kind of quality pitching and timely hitting that the Brewers have enjoyed all season. A relative lack of power is basically the only flaw for a lineup that posted tremendous numbers, but
Andrew Vaughn’s career turn-around since
being acquired by the Brewers in June has added a new dimension to the offense.
A pair of shaky starts from
Freddy Peralta and
Quinn Priester at Wrigley Field could be red flags for the Brewers against L.A. Peralta pitched well enough in Game 1 that his Game 4 performance might just be a hiccup, yet if Priester can’t get on track, the Brewers will have to lean even harder on a bullpen that has already logged a lot of innings in the NLDS. Milwaukee is as creative as any team in getting the most out of its pitching staff, so expect plenty of unconventional pitcher usage as the Brewers will try to keep the Dodgers at bay.
After a somewhat underwhelming regular season by their high standards, the Dodgers may have flipped the switch for October, sweeping the Reds in the wild card series and then dispatching the Phillies in a four-game NLDS. Even with several stars (
Shohei Ohtani,
Freddie Freeman, and an injury-diminished
Will Smith) yet to get rolling at the plate, the Dodgers have been aided by a red-hot
Mookie Betts and contributions from up and down their seasoned lineup.
Roki Sasaki’s emergence as the club’s seeming first choice at closer has been huge for Los Angeles, and perhaps addresses the team’s biggest weakness. If Sasaki is now a high-leverage option late in games and the excellent L.A. starting rotation remains in form, the Brewers have a pretty narrow window to strike against the rest of the struggling Dodger bullpen.
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