Time flies by when you’re having fun, and the
Toronto Maple Leafs have already completed the first 10 games of the 2025-26 campaign. Toronto sports a
5-4-1 record after defeating the
Calgary Flames 4-3 on Tuesday evening.
There are so many details to pay attention to during the opening month of the year that some data gets lost in the background. We’ve found 10 stats that define the first 10 games of the Maple Leafs’ season, neatly summarizing the team’s strengths, weaknesses, highlights and potential areas of concern for the next phase of the year.
12.2% shooting percentage in all situations for Auston Matthews
Everyone is waiting to see if Auston Matthews is back to the form he displayed two years ago en route to a 69-goal campaign. Matthews played through a lingering upper-body injury last season, recording 33 goals and 78 points in 67 games, which are great totals for virtually anyone but the 2022 Hart Trophy recipient. Matthews is
going through the correct process, at least through the initial first two weeks of the season, but the goals aren’t flying in just yet.
Is it merely a function of poor shooting luck? That would be a bit naive and overly simplistic. There are times where Matthews has displayed his usual velocity, but it’s not occurring with enough frequency to alleviate any concerns permanently. Matthews has recorded five goals and eight points through 10 games, he’s playing well, and the threat of his shot creates further time and space for his linemates. The chances are there, but Matthews will need to convert at a greater than 12 percent rate for the duration of the year.
14.8% conversion rate on power play, 27th-ranked in NHL
Toronto’s power play is an assembly of some of the game’s greatest offensive talent, so it’s frustrating to see the man advantage stumble to a 14.8 percent success rate. Ahead of Wednesday’s slate, the Maple Leafs sport the 27th-ranked power play in the NHL. That’s simply not good enough for a group that consists of Matthews, Matthew Knies, John Tavares, William Nylander and Morgan Rielly.
Throughout the preseason, there was a concerted emphasis on
getting a shot off early in the power play. That hasn’t been always the case, and the first unit is prone to skating to centre-ice at half-speed, before dropping the puck to an oncoming teammate — usually, but not exclusively Matthews or Nylander — allowing the penalty kill to set up their base structure with ease.
You need your best players to be your best players, and while that has often been the case, the power play needs more dynamic puck movement, along with a concerted approach to getting goals from the net-front.
42.8% percent, William Nylander’s involvement in all Leafs goals
William Nylander isn’t quite a one-man offence unto himself, but he’s carrying a disproportionate load of the scoring share. Nylander has been involved in 42.8 percent of the Maple Leafs’ goals to date, with three goals and 15 points through 10 games, tied for 8th in NHL scoring.
Nylander
responded to an early season callout from head coach Craig Berube and has recorded points in eight of the nine games he’s played in. Toronto will need to continue to diversify its offence, but Nylander has been locked in as a playmaker, setting up chances for his teammates with routine frequency, as the club searches for its identity writ large.
61.61% percent expected goals at 5-on-5 for Maccelli-Tavares-Nylander
Berube may be
forced to experiment with his lines longer than he’d like, but he’s found at least one combination that seems to work. Matias Maccelli, John Tavares and William Nylander are Toronto’s most commonly-used line at 5-on-5, outscoring opponents 5-2 with a 61.61 share of the expected goals in 41:49 together via
Natural Stat Trick.
Nylander is still being moved throughout the lineup and was placed alongside Bobby McMann and Auston Matthews for Tuesday’s victory over the Flames. You still have to account for the idea that the Leafs will be proactive at the deadline and these combinations aren’t going to be completely set through the calendar year, but Berube has found a second line that has worked, at least against relatively weaker competition to begin the year. Tavares is the team’s most consistent player, Nylander is the most dynamic playmaker and Maccelli is finding his groove, getting puck touches to his two star linemates.
19 high-danger shots on goal for Matthew Knies
Matthew Knies is the embodiment of the
modern power forward, and while he hasn’t always been in top gear, there’s data to suggest that he’s due for an offensive explosion. Knies’ 19 high-danger shots rank third in the league via NHL Edge, and he’s coming off a two-goal game against the Flames, his best game of the young season.
Knies can dominate in the low slot and at the net-front due to his size, physicality and scoring touch. He’s taken on a larger leadership role this year after signing a
six-year extension in the offseason. He’s beginning to assert himself with greater frequency and he’s worked a strong two-man game with Easton Cowan on the forecheck. All of these puck touches in the high-danger areas are going to amount to more goals, as Knies has recorded four goals and 13 points through 10 games.
39.9 percent of offensive zone time
Berube preaches a north-south style of play, but is it necessarily working for the Leafs? Toronto controls just 39.9 percent of offensive zone time, the 25th-best total in the NHL. The league average is 41.1 percent via NHL Edge. And this speaks to the idea that the Maple Leafs are submitting too many ‘one-and-done’ possessions, getting one shot attempt before the opponent clears the zone and resets the play.
Getting pucks deep and sustaining the zone are hallmarks of Berube’s instruction, but the Maple Leafs are punting way too often, especially given the calibre of their star forwards. This will continue to be a work in progress.
25 goals allowed at 5-on-5
Rush defence continues to be a major issue for the Maple Leafs and while Berube has been impressed with his team’s ability to score, the same can’t be said about the defence corps. Toronto has allowed 25 goals at 5-on-5, the 6th-worst total in the NHL prior to Wednesday’s games, offsetting the contributions of its 6th-ranked offence.
It hasn’t been all bad necessarily. Morgan Rielly was off to a terrific start to the year before cooling off during the latter part of the month, and there’s been a concerted effort to enter the rush. Toronto is still struggling to defend against the counterattack, and it isn’t pushing opponents out of the net-front, which Anthony Stolarz
took umbrage with
following a 4-3 loss to the Seattle Kraken. Brandon Carlo is off to a poor start to the year, and the Maple Leafs are trying to survive with Chris Tanev out of the lineup, at least until November 1 due to injury.
4 goals by defencemen
Although there’s been a more concerted effort to get into the rush and generate offence, the Maple Leafs’ defence corps have registered four goals through 10 games: two goals from Rielly, one each from Jake McCabe and Oliver Ekman-Larsson. For comparison, New Jersey’s Dougie Hamilton registered four goals, leading all defencemen thus far.
Toronto’s defencemen registered the fewest goals by any blue line last year, so there was some initial excitement after
Rielly’s standout performance on opening night against Montreal. It’s going to take more than Rielly and Ekman-Larsson launching shots from the point with increased frequency, if the Leafs are to get meaningful offence from the back end.
16 goals allowed in 2nd period
We’re not going to call it a house of horrors, but the second period hasn’t been kind to the Maple Leafs. Toronto has surrendered a league-worst 16 goals during the second frame, and often have to fight back in the third period to rescue some points.
It’s not a mere function of run-and-shoot hockey either, as Toronto sports a minus-eight goal differential during the second period. Toronto is typically getting off to a strong start, as evidenced by its plus-four (11-7) goal differential through the first frame, before the structure collapses, or the team gets outpaced on the counterattack. We’re not going to get too obsessed about the splits just yet, but there’s something to be said for a mid-game lull occurring frequently.
-3.2 goals saved above expected from Anthony Stolarz
Anthony Stolarz masked some deficiencies last year for the Maple Leafs when he was healthy, as the team’s elite goaltending papered over the middling play at 5-on-5 throughout the year. Stolarz stole a few wins, namely an
October 16 masterclass to secure a 2-1 victory over the New York Rangers, but he hasn’t always been at his best.
Stolarz is facing the greatest workload of his career and he’s saved -3.2 goals above expected in all situations via MoneyPuck. He isn’t getting a ton of support from his defencemen, as the Maple Leafs are surrendering far too many chances off the rush, but he also isn’t in the same form as he was last year, where some believed he should’ve received Vezina consideration, despite missing two months due to injury.
We’re inclined to believe that these poor numbers are a function of his workload, but a .886 save percentage through eight games is almost cause for alarm, and we’ll have to see how the Leafs manage his minutes throughout the rest of the year.
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: TSN