The Toronto Maple Leafs announced the signing of defenceman William Villeneuve to a one-year contract extension on Tuesday, bringing back one of their top defensive prospects after a solid breakout year with the Toronto Marlies with an opportunity to maybe secure that ever-so coveted NHL debut in 2025-26.
Calling Villeneuve one of the team’s top defensive prospects is, on one hand, a nod to his development over the past few seasons, and on the other hand, an indictment of how weak the Leafs’ prospect pool is. Still, it’s not Villeneuve’s fault that the team has traded a good number of draft picks in recent years and had a couple of draft classes full of whiffs back a half-decade ago or so. In fact, the Quebecois blueliner was a member of one of those draft classes. A right-handed defenceman standing at 6-foot-2 and 183 pounds, he was a fourth-round pick of the Maple Leafs in the 2020 NHL Draft after a solid sophomore season with the QMJHL’s Saint-John Sea Dogs that saw him display some offensive potential, with 58 points in 64 games.
These kinds of numbers offensively are always worth an extended look, but in the two years that followed, Topi Niemela emerged as the clear shiny toy from the 2020 draft class and the Maple Leafs’ top defensive prospect. While Niemela had a breakout season two years after hearing his name called, Villeneuve had just wrapped up his final junior season that saw him finish with 56 points, less than what he had in his draft season. Usually, seeing your numbers dwindle as you get older is a recipe to not earning a contract, but the Maple Leafs kept the faith and signed him to an entry-level deal.
In his first two AHL seasons, the 23-year-old focused on honing his skills on the defensive side of the game. This is imperative for any young defenceman with an offensive-heavy game, and while his numbers in his first two seasons as a Marlie didn’t jump off the plate, it was an indicator that his focus was elsewhere. Hilariously enough, Villeneuve’s first two seasons with the Marlies were the exact same. He had 25 points in 54 games both years, the only difference being he had an extra goal in 2022-23 and one less assist, and vice versa in 2023-24.
The 2024-25 season is when he broke out, with 40 points in 55 games, and he also tallied two assists in two playoff games. With Niemela having signed in Europe this season, the door has officially opened for Villeneuve to be one of the Maple Leafs’ first callup options should they suffer any injuries on the defensive corps. The work on his defensive game is going to be what gets him that opportunity, as the Leafs have shown the tendency to give first dibs to prospects who they can trust if they have to throw them out against another team’s top line, and sometimes they’re thrown right into the fire on the penalty kill.
Calling up Villeneuve doesn’t mean that he will jump into the lineup and immediately start taking penalty kill reps on the team’s top unit, but if nothing else, it will make the Maple Leafs feel better to know that they won’t necessarily need to pair him with a babysitter to trust him on the ice. And who knows what happens from there? He could see himself get an opportunity to quarterback the power play, which he’ll be getting regular opportunities to do with the Marlies this season, and if the Leafs like what they see, it could bridge the gap to a potential full-time NHL job, or if they determine that they don’t have the room for him, he could be used as a trade chip at the deadline.
We’re getting extremely ahead of ourselves here, but the point is that Villeneuve has shown the ability to adapt his game to different situations, and with no immediate pressure to jump into an NHL role, he can continue to work on those defensive skills and lean on his offence to get eyes on him. The drawback here is that the regime that drafted him is no longer here, so he won’t have the advantage of knowing his general manager from the start, meaning there’s less attachment between personnel and player. But, that won’t matter if Villeneuve continues to improve each year and show the current brass that he’s worthy of being a piece worth holding onto.
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Starting this week, NHL Network is taking a look at the top players across the league by position, compiling lists made by producers and analysts. On Wednesday, they kicked the series off by ranking the top 20 wingers in the NHL heading into this season.
Coming in at sixth on the list is Toronto Maple Leafs right winger William Nylander. The 29-year-old Swede is coming off the three most productive seasons of his career, and led the Leafs with six goals and 15 points in the playoffs earlier this year.
On Nylander, they write:
Entering 2025-26, Nylander is on the second year of an eight-year, $92 million contract that kicked in last season. With an annual average salary of $11.5 million, he is tied for ninth in the league in yearly earnings, and will be the fourth most expensive winger this season.
In front of Nylander in order from first to fifth place are Nikita Kucherov, David Pastrnak, Kirill Kaprizov, Mikko Rantanen, and Mitch Marner. With Rantanen and Marner being two names that could have been in Maple Leafs jerseys this season (Rantanen through a trade that never was, and Marner… for obvious reasons), it’s up to Nylander to prove this year that he’s a crop above these two near teammates and assert himself as one of the league’s best.
And with his debut Olympic appearance set for February in Milan, look for Nylander to come out hot and hungry this October, as the Swede enters what may be the defining years of his career.
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Is it too early to be thinking about the Olympic break? When it comes to hockey content in August, nothing is too early. And while the Olympics aren’t until February, there is good reason to consider the impact from day one of the season and go into the year knowing what benefits will come from it and what risks are going to need to be mitigated from it. That’s why it’s important to understand the impact of the Olympics on the Toronto Maple Leafs.
When it comes to players directed impacted by being Olympic roster locks, the Leafs big three of Auston Matthews, William Nylander, and [checks notes] David Kampf are the locks to participate if they are healthy. Kidding aside and acknowledging that there is little certainty of Kampf being a Leaf shortly after this is published let alone in February, there is a very real need for the Leafs to have a plan in place for managing the workload of their top two offensive players while maintaining a competitive team in the final stretch of the season.
The Olympics and playoff level intensity that goes along with them is a particular worry when talking about Auston Matthews, as his health has become an ongoing concern for Toronto.
In addition to that trio of locks, John Tavares, Matthew Knies, Oliver Ekman-Larsson, Anthony Stolarz, Matias Maccelli, and potentially even Chris Tanev or Morgan Rielly could get consideration for their national teams either off the strength of a strong first half of the season or injuries requiring countries to look further down their depth charts than they’d like.
As for some non-roster Leafs that are likely to get the tap on the shoulder, Benoit-Olivier Groulx will likely be playing for France, and Tinus-Luc Koblar could very well play for Norway, although when talking about the impacts of the Olympics on the Maple Leafs, the experience would only be a positive for Koblar and potentially there will be some motivation and bump in the play from Groulx this season as well due to representing his country.
Like Matthews or Nylander there are several players listed that the risk of injury would represent a major setback for the Maple Leafs. And while I’m sure he’d love to be tapped for the event, having Anthony Stolarz involved in the Olympics would be less than ideal for the Leafs as opposed to the alternative of three weeks off duty.
The Stolarz/Woll tandem if planned for throughout the season will need to divide 57 games between them prior to the Olympic break. Leaning into the hot hand particularly heading into the break after balancing the workload for most of the first half of the season might be the best course of action and depending on where Toronto sits in the standings at the Olympic break, a new division of work can be created to either lean on the top performer to get into the playoffs or rest them for the post season.
The good news is that even if Stolarz (or even Woll for that matter) were selected to Team USA, it will be one of Hellebuyck or Oettinger owning the net and anyone else will just proudly sit around jet lagged wearing a ballcap on the bench.
Looking at how the Leafs performed last season following the shorter break for the Four Nations Tournament, Toronto prospered. They came out of the break and had a five game win streak. They faltered briefly around the trade deadline with a 1-4-1 stretch but overall finished the post tournament schedule with a 19-6-2 record. There is something to be said for that rest.
There is also something to be said for the Olympics leading into the trade deadline and maybe a little incentive to complete trades prior to the Olympic break. Rather than a frenzy for players to relocate to a new team and city, they potentially have a three week window to get settled, maybe meet some of their new teammates and get on the ice for the return to play practices at the end of the Olympic break before playing their first games. It’s civilized and you could argue that smart GMs will be looking to make trades early. At the very least, it makes things a lot easier when it comes to having pro scouts, coaches, analytics folks, etc. in a strategy meeting leading up to the deadline.
The Olympic break is also sandwiched between the Leafs longest road trip of the season. While the schedule shows it at six consecutive games on the road, it instead works out to being a four game trip and then a two game trip. Suddenly that’s a lot more manageable.
A lot of what is benefiting the Leafs will benefit other clubs as well and with the exception of Toronto holding its collective breath to make sure that Auston Matthews and William Nylander return in perfect health, the experience should be a positive one.
Still, there are some teams that will benefit more than others. Pretty much every team that isn’t sending a goaltender already has a leg up and unfortunately for the Leafs their two key division rivals have Russian goaltenders that are guaranteed rest in February. The Senators and Canadiens will be less fortunate in that regard and will have a tougher go of it as a result.
You can make a case for the Panthers seeing as many as 11 of the players in their lineup playing at the Olympics. Couple that with two years of long playoff runs and aside from Bobrovsky, there is a real risk of fatigue.
It will be interesting to see what the Leafs do as well as other organizations when it comes to load management for players involved in the tournament. For the Leafs it will clearly be decided based on where they are sitting in the standings and the Olympics coupled with the fact that their difficulty of schedule shows the early part of the season being easier for them, the Leafs having a strong start to the 2024-25 season affords them the luxury of rest in March and early April.
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Heading into the 2025-26 NHL season, there’s going to be plenty of storylines to follow once training camp opens for the Toronto Maple Leafs. The internal competition between Easton Cowan and Nick Robertson will be one that could wind up being the most entertaining of them all. With the way the Maple Leafs are constructed heading into camp, there’s only a few spots open among the Maple Leafs’ forward group, which means, it could be a long shot to see both Cowan and Robertson in the lineup on opening night. The two play a very similar game, and head coach Craig Berube is going to have to get creative if both wingers show well in camp and throughout preseason, as the open spots are limited with how the current roster is stacked up.
Let’s start with Cowan. The Maple Leafs’ top prospect has accomplished everything he could of throughout his junior hockey career. From personal, to team accolades, Cowan appears ready to make the next step, and while his offensive abilities aren’t going to be questioned, Berube will be watching closely to see how Cowan’s playing without the puck on his stick. If the 20-year-old is capable of being a 200-foot player, that can forecheck hard, and physically, win battles along the wall against some players close to double his age, the 6-foot winger will have a good chance to check all of the necessary boxes off to crack the lineup for the season opener.
Cowan can fly, he has great speed, he has a great motor, always battling hard every shift. The natural hockey sense is off all the charts, and his ability to be a playmaker might actually be one of his more underrated traits of his game. The thing is, as a potential third-liner for the Leafs, Berube won’t care much about how much Cowan’s name appears on the scoresheet, and more so if he’s able to play sound defensive hockey. If Cowan wants to get a leg up on Robertson within the depth chart, he may have to expand his game to kill penalties as well. With his speed and instincts, there’s certainly some baseline skills which he possess to be effective shorthanded. It’s all going to come down to trust, and opportunity, and that’s something he’ll have to win over from Berube. Just ask Robertson.
Robertson had a very up-and-down season last year with the Leafs. The 5-foot-9 winger scored 15 goals in 69 games, both career highs, but where Robertson took strides in his game were on the defensive side of the puck, and his physicality. Berube challenged Robertson to get in the mix more, become more physical every shift, and Robertson took the challenge to heart. He landed 79 hits last season, double the amount of any other year, and he showed that he wasn’t going to back down any shift, regardless of who he was up against.
Some of Robertson’s best hockey last season came playing with Max Domi and Bobby McMann, however, with the way the current Leafs’ roster is situated, Domi could wind up playing first-line right-wing minutes, meanwhile, McMann will also be in the mix to push Robertson and Cowan down the depth chart. Here’s how the Leafs could wind up starting the year:
Knies, Matthews, Domi
Maccelli, Tavares, Nylander
McMann, Roy, Joshua
Lorentz, Laughton, Jarnkrok
Robertson, Kampf, Cowan
Needless to say, the Maple Leafs are crowded up front. There’s also been talks about interest in free-agent Jack Roslovic, who could push Domi down the depth chart and disrupt the entire lineup. In Roy and Joshua, the Leafs added two big bodies, Roy being 6-foot-4, Joshua being 6-foot-3. It was part of the DNA change Brad Treliving was looking to accomplish, which doesn’t necessarily bode well for Robertson and Cowan, who many consider undersized. Yes, there’s been some rumblings about Treliving trying to make a move ahead of training camp, but for now, those talks seem far fetched in fantasy land considering current trade values.
One scenario that could materialize over the next month or so would be the Leafs give Robertson a chance to crack the top six, and wind up moving him ahead of the waiver deadline before opening night. He just signed a one-year contract and avoid arbitration, but let’s not fool ourselves, that doesn’t mean his future in Toronto is set in stone. Cowan however, appears to be the polar opposite. Treliving made a slew of moves ahead of last season’s trade deadline, and dealt Fraser Minten, two first-round picks, and kept Cowan in the fold. If he didn’t get moved last season, he’s not getting moved because of a roster jam ahead of the new year.
The Cowan vs. Robertson matchup is going to be very entertaining to watch throughout training camp. Two wingers who want to make a name for themselves next season. Two players with similar tendencies, and even similar flaws, so it will be interesting to see how Berube handles their ice time, and their opportunities to crack the Maple Leafs’ opening night.
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Transitive property isn’t a real method of evaluation and while the Toronto Maple Leafs may have lost in seven games to the Florida Panthers, there are plenty of lessons to be learned from the back-to-back champions. Toronto may have provided Florida with its toughest test during the 2025 Stanley Cup Playoffs, but it is still at least a tier or two away from replicating the prolonged success of its divisional rival.
We’ll go through a few notes and caveats: namely, there are few exceptional qualities the Panthers have and not all of it is replicable. Carter Verhaeghe’s breakaway speed or Aleksander Barkov’s proficiency in the faceoff circle aren’t traits that can be picked up over the summer. What we’re trying to identify are things the Panthers did well, that the Leafs can incorporate into their games. At the very least, this exercise will explain what the champions do extraordinary well, without resorting to empty platitudes of ‘toughness’ or ‘wanting it more’ or whatever the war of attrition de jour is.
In the first part of this series, we’re going to start by examining Panthers star defenceman Gustav Forsling and how his game serves as a clinic on cutting off the point of attack.
Forsling is a superstar and is the NHL’s best defensive defenceman, with consideration to Carolina Hurricanes standout Jaccob Slavin. Some would argue that Maple Leafs defender Chris Tanev deserves contemplation for this superlative, but Forsling’s skill set is different. While Tanev is arguably the NHL’s best shot-blocker with a terrific ability to exit his defensive zone cleanly, Forsling is the best man-to-man defender in the league, he anticipates shooting lanes off the rush with clarity (you don’t need to look much further than how he defended Connor McDavid in consecutive Finals as proof of concept) and there are clearly identifiable parts of his game that the Leafs should try to adopt for the 2025-26 season.
Dimitri Filipovic of The PDOcast released an eight-minute supercut of Forsling’s play against McDavid and the Oilers in the 2025 Final. A picture is worth a thousand words, and Forsling’s ability to track the puck clearly stands out. Whether it’s a 2-on-1 where Forsling has to expertly position himself between two potent shooters, or reading the puck off McDavid’s stick when he’s flying through the offensive zone with unmatched pace, the 29-year-old never gets rattled. Forsling’s game is particularly instructive in rush scenarios.
“Rush defence. I think that’s always a concern for every team, though,” Maple Leafs head coach Craig Berube said on January 5, when asked about what his team needs to improve entering the second half of the season. “It’s such a fast league. Teams transition so quick and the D are always up in the play. Just some better sort outs. I think there are a lot of times where we can manage the puck better and not give up opportunities to teams the other way. We’re getting better at it, trust me. I think our team has bought into putting the puck deep, and going to work, but there’s still improvement to be made.”
Toronto struggled in rush defence scenarios throughout the year, and it was one of its biggest flaws overall. Tanev and Jake McCabe were granted an exemption in my January piece which identified the team’s difficulties on the counterattack, the former serving as the Leafs’ best overall defenceman, while the latter operated as the team’s premier point-of-attack defender. Andrew Brewer, who joined the Anaheim Ducks as an assistant coach this summer, outlined how Forsling uses his elite stick positioning to rotate well and defend the rush better than anyone. Florida built its dynasty in large part due to its outstanding possession and puck retention, and Forsling’s ability to win back the puck before it enters the defensive zone is a major component of its proficiency.
And while Forsling’s tracking ability, his underrated propensity to create offence from turnovers, and dynamic skating should be admired by Morgan Rielly and Brandon Carlo, Tanev and McCabe aren’t infallible, either. No one is expecting Tanev to become a secondary scorer (although he did register his best offensive campaign since the 2019-20 season) but the Maple Leafs received minimal offensive contributions from their blue line, and Forsling will absolutely wire the puck when given the chance. Don’t be fooled by Forsling’s relatively pedestrian point production after recording 11 goals and 31 points in 80 games, he is a superstar.
Gustav Forsling gives the Panthers the lead!pic.twitter.com/rRG3mTfLh4
— Sports on Prime Canada (@SportsOnPrimeCA) April 3, 2025
It should be remembered that Toronto allowed the third-fewest (136) goals at 5-on-5 last season, while Florida allowed the fourth-fewest (139) so perhaps major overhauls aren’t required. Forsling’s game still provides enough instructional value and points to the idea that suppressing the opponent before it can get set up in the offensive zone, rather than working tirelessly to facilitate a quick zone exit is the more efficient approach. Perhaps this is common sense, too, but Forsling makes the game look easy. Every team in the league would do well to examine Forsling’s approach to defending the rush, allowing him to cover the ice with relative ease, while taking pointers from his ability to track the puck, even when carried by the NHL’s most dangerous talents.
Toronto appeared to panic during Game 5 and 7 against Florida. Forsling is the embodiment of calm and cool, he creates offence from turnovers, he’s always well-positioned, he’s an underrated physical presence and his stick work is unmatched. There may be small tweaks to the Leafs’ defensive system in year two under Berube and while he’s likely not seeking outside counsel, Forsling’s game may provide the blueprint for an extended playoff run.
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One of the biggest surprises of this summer is that we haven’t reached the league expansion discourse until now. Maybe it’s because there are Olympic rosters to project. Maybe the insiders that we rely on to normally start the discourse of this topic aren’t back from their cottages yet. Or maybe the league isn’t actually looking at expansion now that the global economy can at best be labelled volatile at the moment. Whatever the reasoning, it’s been surprisingly quiet on this topic until John Shannon opined on the topic recently without reporting anything firm.
The reason why it seems reasonable to talk about expansion is simple, expansion fees are an opportunity to print money for the league. With fees expected to jump from $500M to well over $1B in the next round of expansion, a league of 34 teams seems like a given in the coming years and we shouldn’t rule out the idea of a 36 team league by the close of the decade.
Last season cases were made from groups in Atlanta, Houston, and ongoing talk of a return to Arizona were all mentioned, as well as some easily dismissible Canadian options in Quebec City as well as a second team in Toronto. They are worth noting because of the interest but the viability or league interest might not exist there yet, and it also seems safe to say that the NHL will wait at least three and a half years before discussing an NHL European Division.
The money interests the league, there are interested cities with investors out there, and now the trifecta of adding in labour peace until 2030 creates an encouraging situation for the league to expand. That’s not to say expansion creates the best product (scroll down a bit if you want to jump to that topic), but from a league and growth perspective it makes sense and NHL participation in the Winter Olympics is the cherry on top as eyes will be on hockey around the world and the sport will be at its most marketable point over the next four years.
Who’s ready for a team?
The same way that Los Angeles was always the free space when talking about NFL expansion for a number of years, it feels like Houston has taken on that role in the NHL. It’s one of the largest American cities, it’s a sports crazed market, they have the building, and they have experience sports franchise ownership that seems to be interested. The NHL could just as easily moved the Coyotes to Houston and not missed a step, so if expanding in a short time frame is in the cards for anyone, it’s likely Houston.
Arizona is another large market that the NHL isn’t quite done with yet. I’m sure Bettman wants to right his wrong here before he retires and the second a vaguely competent owner who has a long term arena lease in hand knocks on the door of the NHL’s headquarters, the Coyotes 2.0 will be born. That said, asking for any of that in Arizona is apparently asking a lot and that could slow things down here.
Atlanta 3.0 picked up some steam and is unquestionably a market that the NHL needs to find a way to make work. The NHL hasn’t shown much excitement about returning but they are certainly in the mix.
As for Quebec, there will always be someone interested in putting a team there but there will also be league full of players rushing to add them to their no trade list. The Quebec tax situation already takes a toll on Canadians. Throw in another market with winters similar to Edmonton and Winnipeg, an additional language barrier, and while a very cool city, not necessarily one that appeals to 25 year old millionaires, and Quebec will be a challenge on the player front. It’s not exactly a booming city either and after the initial novelty it’s possible that ticket sale challenges could mirror the ones experienced by the Senators and Jets in recent years. That being said, as expansion continues it is going to become harder to say no.
Kansas City, Portland, Milwaukee, Cleveland, San Diego, and Hartford are certainly some easy names to throw out there as potential expansion targets but it also doesn’t seem like a stretch to say they have been on the radar as much as the previously mentioned cities.
As for the one that hits closest to home, literally, for Leafs fans, it is incredibly doubtful that there will be expansion in Southern Ontario, let alone the Greater Toronto Area. If regular Maple Leafs ownership has been successful in blocking expansion up until now, Rogers as the primary owners of the Maple Leafs and coincidentally the holders of the national broadcast rights to the NHL in Canada don’t want expansion into their territory happening, it seems unlikely the NHL is looking to make an enemy of one of their closest partners. That said, beyond expansion, when has it looked like the NHL is doing the Leafs any favours?
American money and markets are king in this situation and outside of Toronto the rumoured $2B expansion fee is a tough pill to swallow for most potential owners of a Canadian market in reality won’t have the population support to appear viable.
The big three changes that come with expansion
Expansion on the business side of things may appear to make sense to the NHL. Billions of dollars of revenue in the short term will sound great but there are also logistical challenges that come with getting bigger.
Talent dilution and the salary cap
With the cap up to $95,500,000 teams are already struggling to find players that they want to give their available money to. With the salary cap going up $113,500,000 by the earliest possible moment we see an expansion team on the ice, it’s safe to say that the addition of 23 new on ice NHL jobs will make it difficult. Two teams at once and 46 players (not even considering the 50 standard player contracts for each team) seems like the product will take a step back and make things a lot more challenging when it comes to icing a team at the quality fans have been accustomed to in the previous decade. The goaltending situation after the Golden Knights and Kraken entered the league has already become dicey and while dicey goaltending equals more goals and more excitement, fans would probably still prefer options beyond shooter tutors or reappropriated EBUGs.
The salary cap situation will get weird as teams bid on the best available players after expansion and that may soon squash the luxury of having the accelerated increases to the salary cap, although that benefit is likely to disappear on its own in a few seasons anyway.
The main area of concern for talent dilution might not be with the players but instead with the officials. The NHL is already going from an 82 game season to an 84 game season in 2026-27, increasing the workload of a workforce that is already drawing heat. The 32 game increase might be absorbable through scheduling but adding two teams and therefore increasing the number of games by 84 on top of that seems like the league is heading towards a shortage of capable officials, if they aren’t already facing that.
It probably goes without saying that if you want the best hockey product the NHL should be looking at contraction rather than expansion but until the league can collect $2B from each team as they fold, that isn’t going to happen.
Divisional realignment
While talent dilution is clearly a negative thing to consider this point is much more of a logistical need rather than a clear positive or negative outcome.
Divisional alignment is something that potentially has the opportunity to improve with each round of expansion or each relocation but at the same time it is still going to draw criticism because especially in the Western Conference there is lack of parity with especially the Metropolitan Division that can pretty much take an Uber to any divisional game they have.
With Houston and Arizona being high on the list of expansion targets, it is likely that Western Conference will simply add one team to each division and call it a day. Houston in the Central, Arizona in the Pacific and it’s called a day until teams 35 and 36 are in the mix and the merits of four divisions of nine teams vs. six divisions of six teams takes place. Who knows maybe the NHL gets there sooner rather than later and six divisions with five or six teams occur. That’s where the chaos and the fun happens.
It’s too early to start drawing mockups of divisions based on where the NHL expands but from the perspective of a site that focuses on the Maple Leafs, anything that potentially could potentially establish a Southern Division and break Toronto free from the Panthers and Lightning seems beneficial (he said fully acknowledging that the rising teams in the division are still close to home.)
Playoff format changes
I’m mentioning that playoff changes would eventually come as the result of expansion but with the caveat that I can’t possibly see something like this occurring outside of a new collective agreement. The playoffs are the playoffs until 2030 and now that I’ve boldly put that out there, I acknowledge I’ll eat crow on it.
Playoff hockey is by far the best product the NHL has to offer and right now things sit very evenly with half the league in and half the league out of the playoffs. Makes sense when you want to have qualifying for the playoffs still mean something and the regular season to be more than an extended exhibition schedule, but when you consider that ownership wants playoff ticket revenue and players want a chance to compete for the Stanley Cup, expanding playoffs will be brought into the conversation.
Since the NHL brought in the WHA franchises after that league folded, the NHL has been on 16 team playoff format, from a bracket perspective it makes a ton of sense but that was in a 21-team league not a 32 and even the Ballard era Leafs could still occasionally make the playoffs. Going with the same percentage of teams in the playoffs, now that would mean expanding to a 24-team format and that’s requires some discussion about what a suitable first round looks like for number of games and how much of bye for top teams is a reward vs. setback.
For what it’s worth, from 1975-1979 the NHL used a best of three play-in round to expand the playoffs and the world didn’t come to an end. That seems far more palatable than 32 teams out of 34 or 36 making the playoffs and hockey going on until the beginning of July.
Of course, this too can warrant more analysis once expansion goes beyond just being an August thought exercise for bored hockey writers.
The reality is that expansion must be coming. Even if the league isn’t talking about and Gary Bettman is deflecting when it comes up, the league very much wants this and knows the conditions are right for it. Much like every other expansion or relocation situation in the NHL, things are quiet until they absolutely are not and while there are a lot of reasons to be concerned about what expansion does to the on ice product, the decision will be based on money and this nets plenty of that for owners and creates job security for NHLPA membership.
For fans at the very least it is a chance to make fun of some new team names, debate some new logos/jerseys, and start figuring out who the Maple Leafs need to protect in the expansion draft(s).
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There have been several attempts to explain what makes the Florida Panthers special as they preside over the NHL with back-to-back Stanley Cups. And through this run, there’s been a reductive tendency to minimize what the Panthers do well, whether it’s through the lens of the salary cap and income tax laws, LTIR manipulation, or stating that the team benefits from unfair officiating, especially during the playoffs.
A lot of these complaints are utter nonsense. Florida excels because of its wealth of talent, a future Hall of Fame starting goaltender, a team-wide commitment to defensive responsibility, underrated pace across the board and an edict to create offence through the NHL’s best forecheck. It’s not just blanket toughness and tenacity, the Panthers truly operate a real, identifiable system that is applied across four lines.
Florida operates a standard 1-2-2 forecheck across four lines and its commitment to its structure, both in the offensive zone and neutral zone are paramount to its success. F1 attacks the puck, F2 takes a line of pursuit directly behind the puck, while D1 slides behind F2 to pick up the opposing winger. F3 covers effectively covers a wide range of the ice, playing high up, to account for D1 sliding up. D2 remains near the blue line. All three forwards understand their assignment and inherently know when their defensemen are pinching in to retain possession, with F3 in position to track back rather easily. This system works in conjunction to create a suffocating five-man presence, where the Panthers win pucks back to get a quick shot on goal, or engage in gruelling puck battles behind the net and along the wall, before the puck jams free to set up an optimal shot against a worn-out defence.
And to be clear, it’s not impossible to beat the Panthers’ forecheck. During the first two games of their second-round series, the Maple Leafs killed the Panthers in transition, taking advantage of their opponent pushing too far up the ice without the requisite puck support. And while we tend to write about hockey as if results are net-perfect, you will get rare instances where Anton Lundell flubs a routine pass from Brad Marchand, which leads to a 2-on-1 chance where Morgan Rielly beats Sergei Bobrovsky clean, as evidenced in Game 1. In this instance, there’s still a foreboding message: you have to strike immediately when the Panthers make a mistake, or win one battle after another in order to escape their commanding grip.
19 SECONDS LATER RIELLY RESPONDS!!!!!!
: Sportsnet pic.twitter.com/Fp1ZdLpWLh
— TheLeafsNation (@TLNdc) May 6, 2025
“Our forecheck is good because we make the right decisions at the line,” Panthers head coach Paul Maurice said via The Athletic, prior to the 2025 Final. “We don’t dump every puck. I don’t want them to dump every puck. But we’re also not going to try to make a play at the line every time, and over time, players have got a pretty good idea of what’s coming next. He’s going to put that puck in deep, or there’s a play to be made. If you can figure that part out of what you’re doing, you get to a fairly high percentage of being right and you play faster. That way, you forecheck a little faster. We were late on our forecheck in the first two games in Toronto. Our decisions had to change. We kind of figured it out.”
Here’s an example of the Panthers’ forecheck working to perfection, in Game 2 of the Eastern Conference Final against the Carolina Hurricanes. Panthers forward Carter Verhaeghe establishes the zone and tosses the puck into the low cycle. Matthew Tkachuk takes on the F1 role in a puck battle against Hurricanes defenceman Dmitry Orlov, while Sam Bennett comes in for support as F2, hounding Hurricanes defender Sean Walker. Although it’s out of the frame, Verhaeghe heads over from the wall to cover the opposite side of the zone as the F3, Forsling crashes down as D1 and Verhaeghe slides into Forsling’s place at the point.
Walker forces a quick pass to Hurricanes star forward Andrei Svechnikov, who begins to panic as Forsling takes away his time and space. Svechnikov turns backwards with Bennett and Forsling on him and forces a rushed pass off the wall, where Tkachuk cuts the lane off rather easily. Verhaeghe is still well-positioned at the point, covering for Forsling. Tkachuk one-touches the interception over to Forsling, who takes his time, surveys the net and wires a shot past Hurricanes goaltender Frederik Andersen. This is a prime example of the Panthers’ 1-2-2 system suffocating the Hurricanes, forcing a key mistake, with each player operating responsibly within the scheme.
Here’s an easy example from the Final. In the final minute of the first period during Game 4, Verhaeghe steals the puck from Trent Frederic and gets it over to Sam Reinhart, with both teams seeking a line change. Verhaeghe simply outworks Oilers defenceman Troy Stecher, wins the puck and finds a wide-open Anton Lundell for a 3-0 lead. This may not be proprietary, but it’s a simple example of how the Panthers are always looking for offence while playing a structured, defence-oriented game.
that Swaggy forecheck and that Lundy finishpic.twitter.com/nlehFrqZAR
— Florida Panthers (@FlaPanthers) June 13, 2025
Florida led the NHL in goals scored after a turnover during the playoffs via Jack Han. The ability to turn defensive wins and puck battle victories into instant offence is simply unmatched by any other NHL team. And under Maurice’s supervision, the Panthers’ forecheck is imperative to their identity. They hound down pucks, they roll four lines in perfect position and they effectively dare you to beat them by playing sound, competent hockey. It’s often forgotten that the Panthers are among the fastest-paced teams in the NHL, if you use shot volume as a stand-in for overall team speed, and in any event, they’ve managed to master the art of shrinking the ice.
Forecheck, backcheck, paycheck. Maple Leafs head coach Craig Berube installed his north-south system and for large stretches of the year, it worked. It cannot be solely incumbent upon Auston Matthews to lead the forecheck, with Chris Tanev and Jake McCabe’s superior position, shot-blocking and point-of-attack defending leading the charge on the back end, it has to be a concerted effort from all four lines. Toronto was out-chanced 26-0 by Florida to start Game 7 in large part due to the fact that Brad Marchand, Anton Lundell and Eetu Luostarinen flummoxed Morgan Rielly and Brandon Carlo’s attempts to break out of the defensive zone. Implementing the team-first approach to winning the puck back and being relentlessly disciplined in all areas of the ice may be the greatest takeaway for the Leafs entering the fall.
For further reading, I highly recommend this piece from Bruce Curlock of OilersNation to get a deeper sense of what has made the Panthers a nightmare on the forecheck.
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The TLN Maple Leafs prospect rankings were compiled by a panel of seven TLN writers, each ranking our top 20 prospects to form a consensus group ranking.
Rather than hard and fast limits on age or NHL games played to determine “prospect” eligibility, our group decided on a more nuanced approach to include any reasonably young player who is either under contract with the Leafs or on the club’s reserve list, who has not yet established himself as a full-time NHLer.
Two short years ago Topi Niemela was one of the top three prospects in our rankings. Last season he dropped to fifth overall and this year he slid all the way down to 12th overall, potentially his last stop before giving up completely on Niemela as the defenceman of the future.
The slide this year is largely driven from the fact that Niemela has made the move back to Europe from the Marlies, electing to play in Sweden next season for the Malmo Redhawks. There’s not a positive case to be made for the Leafs in this situation but thankfully they made the correct decision in retaining his rights. What warranted this move is the perceived step back that Niemela took last season.
Season Team League GP G A P 2019-20 Kärpät Liiga 43 1 6 7 2020-21 Kärpät Liiga 15 0 4 4 2021-22 Kärpät Liiga 48 10 22 32 2022-23 Kärpät Liiga 58 8 10 18 Toronto Marlies AHL 6 1 1 2 2023-24 Toronto Marlies AHL 68 8 31 39 2024-25 Toronto Marlies AHL 61 2 20 22
Niemela experienced a 17 point drop off last season after a solid 39 point debut in the AHL. Definitely a step backward, but one needs to consider the overall drop in goals from the Marlies of 249 goals in 2023-24 to 209 goals in 2024-25. Niemela’s drop off is far more significant than the overall Marlies drop off but as a defenceman his points are always going to be more reliant on the forward group’s offensive production so if this is one of the main measures in which Niemela is being judged, it is somewhat unfair.
There is also the fact that Niemela often gets labelled as an offensive defenceman or solely as a puckmover and while Niemela’s control of the puck is a big part of what makes him a sound prospect, his strong positional play and quickness in winning races to the puck have made him a multi-dimensional asset. The drawback is that he doesn’t have the size or strength in puck battles and as a net presence or in corner battles where Niemela doesn’t arrive first, he struggles and with these being key attributes of Leafs defencemen, it is safe to say that the 2020 3rd round pick has begun to fall out of favour.
The fact that William Villeneuve was more successful in an offensive defenceman capacity for the Marlies last year is part of the reason why the Leafs didn’t aggressively push to re-sign Niemela as well as seeing his role reduced likely factored into Niemela’s decision to seek out an opportunity to reset his career a little. And while Niemela is the more skilled between himself and Villeneuve, Villeneuve’s size and ability to deliver on what the Marlies have asked of him has pushed Niemela out.
It might simply be that Niemela requires the time and space of the bigger European rinks to be successful but his strong 2023-24 disproves that to some degree. And in fact, just as there was a pendulum swing after Niemela’s strong 2021-22 season to a more defensively focused 2022-23, that is potentially what the occurred over the past couple of seasons with the Marlies as well. Inconsistency is never going to be an attribute you want to see in a defenceman but with the right partner and the right deployment, Niemela still has some NHL potential worthy of being explored.
Here’s what was said of Topi Niemela in 2023-24:
And here’s what was said of Niemela heading into the trade deadline:
With the context of the trade deadline piece by Steven Ellis noting that he can use a change of scenery and has fallen off of Brad Treliving’s radar, perhaps the best thing for Niemela and the Leafs is that he has a big season in Malmo and one of the many interested parties that inquired about his availability during the Dubas years will revisit Niemela again at least allowing Toronto to recoup an asset and giving Niemela an honest shot at the NHL.
For many the only memory of Niemela will be the meatball of a pass he threw up the middle of the ice during the 2023 preseason that took him from being someone ready to challenge for a spot on the Leafs to someone that needed time to develop in the AHL. It would be a shame if that is as close as he gets to the NHL because the talent seems to warrant him getting a look from the Leafs or someone else in 2026-27.
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