The Detroit Lions are fresh off the bye week. The Minnesota Vikings had a little mini-bye after a Thursday night thrashing. Both teams are entering Week 9 with a little bit a rest and a few more players ready for action.
But looking around the sports universe this week, it doesn’t seem like many are expecting a competitive game between the 5-2 Lions and the 3-4 Vikings. Detroit is currently favored by 8.5 points, per FanDuel, and most of the expert picks rolling in have the Lions by a comfortable margin.
Is that fair? Is that what the statistics suggest? Let’s find out in our Detroit Lions vs. Minnesota Vikings On Paper preview.
Lions pass offense (7th) vs. Vikings pass defense (25th)
While the Lions aren’t putting up a ton of yardage in the passing game, their efficiency metrics still remain quite strong. They’ve only been held below the opposing defense’s passer rating average twice this year, and one was the disastrous start to the season.
Overall, this remains a top-10 passing attack that is bordering on a top-five unit. They rank:
- Second in passer rating (118.0)
- Fifth in yards per attempt (8.0)
- Seventh in dropback EPA (0.225)
- Fourth in success rate (54.1%)
For all the bellyaching about third downs and failure to get Jameson Williams the ball this week, a bit of perspective is needed here. Detroit is still a very efficient passing offense.
If there’s anything that needs to be talked about more, it’s pass protection. An injured Taylor Decker and a pair of young guards have left the Lions a little more vulnerable to pressure than in previous years. Their PFF team pass blocking grade has dropped from 69.3 last year to 62.4. Pressure percentage depends on what data set you’re using.
Per Pro-Football-Reference:
2024: 21.0% (13th)
2025: 24.4% (28th)
Per NFL Pro:
2024: 33.5% (15th)
2025: 31.1% (12th)
Based on my own eye test, the PFR stats seem more in line with what I’m seeing.
Regardless, the Lions’ passing attack is a force to be reckoned with, and as the offensive line gets more time on task, it’s reasonable to believe the pass protection will improve.
The Vikings defense has been the inverse of the Lions offense. They’ve been great in terms of yardage, but terrible in terms of efficiency—including allowing a perfect passer rating to Jalen Hurts just a couple weeks back. Those passer rating figures mostly match other efficiency metrics… but not all of them:
- 27th in passer rating (104.0)
- 27th in yards per attempt (7.7)
- Sixth in dropback EPA (-0.014)
- 11th in success rate (44.9%)
With a strong EPA and an above average success rate, there’s more than meets the eye here. For one, a high EPA suggests they can create a lot of negative plays for the offense. We see that with their sixth-highest sack rate in the NFL (8.8%), but their takeaways on the season (eight) is right in the middle of the NFL.
This defense is ultimately really tough to figure out, because there’s one more thing to seriously consider here: the quarterbacks they’ve faced: Caleb Williams, Michael Penix, Jake Browning, Aaron Rodgers, Dillon Gabriel, Jalen Hurts, and Justin Herbert. The defense was absolutely horrible the last two weeks against solid quarterbacks, but stout against young, inexperienced passers.
Given the complicated nature of Brian Flores’ pressure packages, this certainly makes sense. It’s confusing to young players, but veterans—like Jared Goff—can handle it.
Player to watch: Jonathan Greenard. He may only have 2.0 sacks on the season, but I believe Greenard to still be an elite pass rusher. He has 30 pressures on the season (t-16th) and a solid pass rush win rate (20%, 11th per ESPN).
Advantage: Lions +1.5. One other thing to consider is the potential return of linebacker Andrew Van Ginkel. He’s a force multiplier as a pass rusher (11.5 sacks last year), but can also drop into coverage. It’s unclear if he’ll play this week, but he could be trouble. Still, Goff has a great track record vs. Flores’ defense, so a fair amount of confidence here is warranted.
Lions run offense (7th) vs. Vikings run defense (15th)
I’ve bemoaned all bye week that the Lions’ rushing attack isn’t up to their high standards and I still believe that to be true. While the Lions have more green than red in these cells, they’re also highly influenced by a few really long runs. They had a 42 and 72 yard run in the Ravens game and a 78 yard run against the Buccaneers. And while explosive plays are great, they also aren’t happening often enough to rely on them. They only have 18 rushes of 10+ yards this year, which ties them for 25th in the NFL.
Other efficiency metrics:
- 4.5 yards per carry (12th)
- -0.027 rush EPA (13th)
- 40.3% success rate (19th)
Now, the DVOA ranking is important here, because it takes into account strength of opponent and Detroit has faced some seriously tough run defenses this year, including the Packers (10th in DVOA), Browns (first), Chiefs (ninth) and Buccaneers (sixth). That said, outside of the Bengals game, they beat up on some bad run defenses in the Bears (26th) and Ravens (22nd).
Still, I’d like to see more from an offensive line that ranks 12th in rushing yards before contact per attempt (1.61) and 15th in FTN Fantasy’s adjusted line yards (4.33).
The Vikings run defense is all over the dang place. They were blown up by the Falcons (21st in DVOA), Chargers (16th), Browns (30th), and Steelers (4th), but absolutely shut down the Eagles (13th) and Bengals (third).
I don’t really know what to make of such an inconsistent unit, and the efficiency metrics don’t do much to help.
- 4.3 yards per carry (15th)
- -0.022 rush EPA (25th)
- 41.6% success rate (19th)
They also rank 18th in PFF’s run defense grade, eighth in adjusted line yards, and second in stuffed percentage.
What this tells me is the Vikings run defense is very boom or bust. Their aggressive front could take you down in the backfield for a loss, but they’re just as likely—if not, more—to give up plenty of yards up the gut. They have given up the 11th-most rushes of 10+ yards.
Player to watch: Jalen Redmon. The Vikings prioritized pass rush this year when it came to their interior defensive linemen by adding Jonathan Allen and Javon Hargrave. But the standout of the unit has been former XFL defensive tackle Jalen Redmond, who has been outstanding as both a pass rusher and run defender. His 66.6 run defense grade ranks 25th out of 129 defensive linemen.
Advantage: Lions +1. I remain a bit skeptical about the Lions rushing attack, and I wouldn’t be surprised to see a handful of negative plays this week. But it’s also quite possible the break off a few explosives against a defense that is vulnerable to it.
Vikings pass offense (26th) vs. Lions pass defense (3rd)
Yeah, so the Vikings have a problem here. Granted, they’ve faced some strong pass defense so far (Chargers, Eagles, Falcons all top-10 in passer rating allowed). Still, it’s been pretty ugly, and with J.J. McCarthy at the helm, things got off to a rocky start in the first two games. For the season, the Vikings rank:
- 27th in passer rating (84.1)
- 15th in yards per attempt (7.3)
- 26th in dropback EPA (-0.039)
- 20th in success rate (45.4%)
If you want to localize some of these stats for McCarthy—even though we’re only working with a two-game sample size—the outlook is even more dire. McCarthy is averaging -0.61 EPA/dropback, which is dead last in the NFL among quarterbacks with at least 20 pass attempts. His -4.5% completion percentage over expected is eighth worst among quarterbacks with 10 pass attempts.
Now, it all isn’t on the quarterback here. The Vikings’ injuries along the offensive line have been a disaster. They’ve only had two games in which both starting tackles played more than 30 snaps together, and their starting center has played in just three games, and finished one healthy. They are trending towards possibly having both tackles back in this game, but it’s unlikely both will be 100 percent. For the season, the Vikings pass protection ranks:
- 16th in PFF grade (62.0)
- 25th in ESPN’s pass block win rate (58%)
- 18th in pressure percentage (34.6%)
- 31st in sack percentage (11.3%)
While McCarthy has more mobility to avoid those sacks than Carson Wentz does, the second-year quarterback was taken down nine times in just two games. Like many young quarterbacks, he tends to hold onto the ball too long (3.15 seconds to throw, second-longest in NFL).
Oh, right. But their weapons. Justin Jefferson is fifth in receiving yards, Jordan Addison is averaging 77.3 yards per game, and T.J. Hockenson is still a strong checkdown option.
Chiefs game aside, the Lions pass defense really turned a corner after the first month of the season. The sample sizes are still a little low to fully buy into the pass defense success—especially with the secondary still banged up—but it’s been an impressive few weeks for the unit. Last game’s performance against Baker Mayfield and the Buccaneers offense catapulted Detroit’s pass defense from 14th to third. I’m a little skeptical of
that good of numbers, but other data suggests this is a pretty dang good pass defense, too:
- 14th in passer rating (90.5)
- 13th in yards per attempt (6.8)
- Eighth in dropback EPA (-0.008)
- Fourth in success rate (42.5%)
Looking at those stats, I’m reminded that a lot of the efficiency they’ve given up were late in games that were already decided (ie: the fourth quarter of the Bengals and Bears game). When you wash away garbage time, this defense has been stellar. Just look at their half splits:
1st: 77-of-112 for 776 yards (6.9 Y/A), 6 TDs, 6 INTs, 83.8 passer rating
2nd: 73-of-126 fo4 854 yards (6.8 Y/A), 8 TDs, 1 INT, 96.5 passer rating
Pass rush has been relatively good. While it takes long to get there (32nd in time to throw), Detroit’s pressure percentage still ranks seventh-highest in the NFL (37.4%) thanks to a strong marriage between rush and coverage. Detroit also ranks fifth in sack percentage (8.3%) and third in PFF pass rush grade (85.6). As for that coverage? Fourth in PFF grade (73.9%).
Player to watch: Justin Jefferson. Him vs. Amik Robertson will be appointment television.
Advantage: Lions +2. While I am a tad skeptical of the Lions high rankings in pass defense, there’s not much outside of Jefferson that scares me with the Vikings. McCarthy has been awful in his small sample sizes, and I believe the Lions are going to confuse and pressure him into a handful of mistakes.
Vikings run offense (23rd) vs. Lions run defense (4th)
Naturally, this chart is going to look bad when the Vikings have attempted the fewest rushes in the NFL, but when there’s so much red in the yards per carry column, that means the problems run deeper than just abandoning the run. Let’s look at some other efficiency metrics:
- 4.3 yards per carry (19th)
- -0.190 rush EPA (30th)
- 42.0% success rate (15th)
Minnesota’s investment in their interior offensive line has not paid off yet. Ryan Kelly has missed most the season, free agent guard Will Fries is currently posting the worst PFF run blocking grade of his career (55.9) and first-round rookie guard Donovan Jackson has an even worse grade at 54.6 as a run blocker. As a team, they rank 20th in yards before contact per carry (1.12), but give Jordan Mason credit. He ranks 14th among running backs with a broken tackle every 12.6 attempts. He’s doing all he can.
The Vikings did get Aaron Jones back from injury last week, but he only played 19 snaps. He could be in for a bigger role this week, which could give the Lions an explosive back to handle.
For most of the season, the Lions run defense has been strong. They’ve only allowed two teams to surpass 100 rushing yards in a game, and both of those teams (Bears-14th in DVOA , Chiefs-6th) have strong rushing attacks this season.
For the season, the Lions rank:
- 13th in yards per carry (4.0)
- Seventh in rush EPA (—0.147)
- 12th in success rate (39.1%)
With the addition of Alim McNeill last game, this unit seems stronger and deeper than ever.
Player to watch: Aaron Jones. Given that he only has 18 carries on the season, the fear here is in the unknown. Jones was a productive back for the Vikings last year (1,138 yards, 4.5 YPC), and he could be someone Minnesota leans on to take some pressure off McCarthy.
Advantage: Lions +1. Obviously McCarthy’s ability to scramble should be mentioned here, but because the Lions have done an excellent job at limiting mobile quarterbacks, it shouldn’t be a huge deal this week.
Last game’s prediction
On Paper continues its slow start to the season. After last game’s pick, we’re just 3-4 on the year and 4-3 against the spread. Still, I can’t feel bad about the process. Against the Buccaneers, there was nothing to suggest the Lions pass defense would dominate Baker Mayfield like they did. The rest of
my Bucs preview actually seems pretty on point with what happened. So I don’t feel that bad about my 27-24 Buccaneers prediction.
In the comment section, no one really predicted the Lions to hold Tampa to nine points, but there were a few pretty impressive score predictions. No one was closer than
wickwick with their 21-10 prediction. Here is your spooky prize:
This week’s prediction
I’ve felt uneasy about this game all week, particularly with Minnesota likely returning players, increasing their roles, or just getting healthier from early-season injury. That list includes: LT Christian Darrisaw, RT Brian O’Neill, RB Aaron Jones, EDGE Andrew Van Ginkel, LB Blake Cashman, and S Harrison Smith.
But the data is just too overwhelming here. The Lions have a distinct advantage in all four matchups, leaving them with a
+5.5 advantage overall. I have to say the 8.5-point line seems appropriate.
Lions 31, Vikings 17.
