Tonight at the Lenovo Center, a Major League Baseball expansion team proxy war will take place between the Carolina Hurricanes and the Nashville Predators.
Hurricanes owner Tom Dundon has expressed a strong interest in bringing the MLB to Raleigh. With the backing of Dundon, other local investors, and an influential grassroots group, the City of Oaks is a major contender for a new professional baseball team.
Which city, however, is most often predicted to land that new team? Nashville.
Baseball is a topic far from the minds of the players on the ice. And after the recent play of the Hurricanes, the team does not need any more distractions. Carolina needs a reset amid an advantageous stretch of the schedule.
The Canes are in game five of a seven-game homestand and have secured just two wins during this time. All seven opponents are currently outside of a playoff spot. Carolina must finish these home games strong and have a positive point differential at the conclusion of this stretch.
Nashville has struggled this season, ranking 28th in team defense with 3.48 goals allowed per game and 28th in offense at 2.59 goals per game. The Predators are near the bottom of the league standings, ranking 30th with just 24 points in 27 games.
However, Nashville has played well in the past week and a half, winning four of the last five games, including an overtime thriller on Thursday night against Florida.
Despite their losing record, the Preds have a 54.0% xGF percentage (Expected Goals-For percentage) at five-on-five, suggesting they have been unlucky rather than bad, controlling the play but failing to finish.
Ryan O’Reilly leads the team with 21 points, and his nine goals are tied with Filip Forsberg for the team lead. The veteran has been the catalyst for their recent turnaround, posting eight points in his last five games.
O’Reilly, Forsberg, and Luke Evangelista have been the line that has produced the best numbers all season for Nashville. However, this trio has recently been broken up by Head Coach Andrew Brunette in favor of new combinations to spread the scoring.
In the last week, Brunette has shifted Steven Stamkos to the top line, bumping Forsberg to a line with
Erik Haula a Finnish winger. Evangelista leads the team in assists and is there to feed O’Reilly and Stamkos.
Captain Roman Josi missed 12 games with an upper-body injury. In the seven games since his return on November 22, he has tallied a goal and four assists. It is good to see the veteran improving after suffering a career-threatening concussion last February.
Former Hurricane Brady Skjei has not produced for the Predators this season. He has just six points and is a -15 on the season, and has not logged a point since November 14.
The overall numbers show that Nashville is having issues on defense. But the advanced stats illustrate a more complex picture.
According to MoneyPuck and Natural Stat Trick models, Nashville’s Expected Goals Against (xGA) suggests they should be a middle-of-the-pack defensive team. The Predators rank in the top 10 in shots allowed per game, demonstrating that they can limit volume. However, there is a massive negative differential of 15 goals between expected goals allowed and actual goals allowed.
A reason for this is the high danger chances allowed by the Predators. Opposing teams are shooting roughly 12.4 percent on high-danger chances against Nashville, compared to a league average of 8.6 percent.
Juuse Saros has struggled with high-danger shots. According to NHL EDGE data, Saros ranks in the bottom 50th percentile for High-Danger Save Percentage at .800 percent. If the Nashville defense makes a mistake, Saros is not always there to bail them out.
Last season, Saros finished the year with a .896 save percentage, the worst of his career. This has continued this season with a 2.86 goals against average and a .897 save percentage. This is a sharp drop-off from when he was competing for the Vezina Trophy between 2021 and 2024.
The injury and illness bugs have had their way with the Hurricanes this season, but there is still hockey to be played.
The most glaring issue for Carolina right now is an inability to convert possession into goals. The Canes have scored just one regulation goal in their last two games.
Against Calgary, the Hurricanes generated only 17 shots on goal in a game that went to overtime against a rookie goaltender. Carolina was passing up Grade-A scoring chances in favor of extra passes.
Despite generating more chances and hitting some posts, the Canes just could not finish against Toronto. After the game, head coach Rod Brind’Amour said that the team is “fighting it” offensively.
And special teams are not helping. Carolina has not scored in its last eight chances on the man advantage. With Nashville boasting a top 10 penalty kill, this 10-day power play drought could continue.
Despite the offensive struggles, there has been good shot suppression in recent games. In the last three games, Carolina has allowed an average of just 15.6 shots on goal per game. Even with goaltending questions, allowing fewer than 20 shots significantly increases the probability of winning. This can help in slowing down the recent uptick in Nashville’s offensive production.
While the rest of the team is gripping the stick a bit too tightly, Seth Jarvis has been the lone finisher. He has five goals in the last four games and is tied for 10th in the NHL with 16 goals.
On the illness and injury front, K’Andre Miller missed the game against Toronto, but skated with Sean Walker in yesterday’s practice. Jesperi Kotkaniemi was a full participant in yesterday’s practice as well.
Pyotr Kochetkov was back at practice, and the Hurricanes will likely have all three goalies available. There is no morning skate today, so stay tuned for tonight’s starter.
Here’s how to check out the action:
Time: 7:00 PM ET
Location: Lenovo Center – Raleigh, NC
TV: FanDuel Sports Network with Mike Maniscalco, play-by-play; Tripp Tracy, color analyst; Shane Willis, analyst; Hannah Yates, rinkside.
Radio: 99.9 The Fan FM
Line: ML: CAR -238; PL: CAR -1.5 +110
