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Will Gonzalez’s limited role at Real Madrid present a steal for a team in the draft?
As a rookie in the NBA, especially for a team with playoff aspirations, it can be hard for a young player to breakthrough into an established rotation. As the season progresses and real aspirations begin to emerge, it can be harder to keep your spot even if you are a part of the rotation. Reed Sheppard was selected third overall last year, but as the Houston Rockets emerged as one of the stronger teams in the Western Conference and headed towards securing a two-seed Sheppard began heading to an inevitable future of playing less and less as his rookie season came to a close.
The typical rookie mistakes and inexperience are often just too costly for teams to suffer through as they play in high stakes games where a costly four/five minute stretch can potentially swing a game that cannot afford to be dropped when it comes to seeding. But fortunes can change quickly in the NBA; a playoff contending team one year can decline rapidly in the next and opportunity isn’t forever limited — no doubt Sheppard will have a larger role to play in Houston next season when everything resets as another season begins.
In Europe, it’s slightly different.
While NBA teams tend to rise and fall a lot more frequently in terms of playoff contention, in Europe the big teams tend to remain that way and powerhouses like Fenerbahce, Barcelona, and until recently (but for different reasons) CSKA Moscow, will always loom large over a competition like this and will likely always boast the better quality of players across all European teams.
As, of course, do Real Madrid, who — despite their yearly Euroleague ambitions giving them plenty of reasons not to play young players — have a history of trying to blend in young players into a stacked and established rotation, which is more impressive when they have a dedicated B Team for that exact purpose too. From Luka Doncic, Dino Radoncic, Usman Garuba, Tristan Vukcevic and Juan Nunez, Real Madrid has made effort to try incorporate young players into their rotation, even if it’s limited time in the case of many (not so much in the case of Doncic and Garuba, who played more significant roles in their time as youngsters with Garuba now back at Madrid after failing to stick in the NBA).
Spanish forward Hugo Gonzalez is the latest in this long line of young Real Madrid prospects who play a bit role in an established, title-seeking squad and yet will be vying to hear his name called on June 25th or 26th at the NBA Draft. Gonzalez, a 19-year-old 6-foot-6 forward played averaged 11 minutes per game, 3.6 points per game on 42% from the field on 2.9 field goal attempts, 30% from three on 1.3 attempts, 76.2% from the line on one attempt per game, 1.8 rebounds, 0.6 assists, 0.3 steals, 0.3 blocks, 0.6 turnovers in 62 games played,
per RealGM (as of June 1st, with Gonzalez’s season still ongoing).
There’s a bit that can be gleamed from those stats but you’d look at those stats and would be left unimpressed. That’s obviously fair, but in 11 minutes per game on a court where basically everyone around you is a higher offensive priority (from the primary offense of Mario Hezonja, or to the lob threats of old Hawks friends Edy Tavares and Bruno Fernando) it’s a little more understandable with context. It speaks more to the role Gonzalez has with Madrid than his underlying talent.
That being said, between extended outings for the Spanish national team and for Real Madrid in the Euroleague, there’s enough to get a sense of Gonzalez’s potential. So, let’s do that. Bear in mind as we go along, that with the minutes so low, the average number of attempts so low, there is a very limited sample of Gonzalez’s body of work and this small sample should be seen as such; because, overall, what Gonzalez showed with Real Madrid this season was done in a very low sample size.
Offense/scoring
Gonzalez’s best offensive work right now comes off the dribble in trying to get to the rim. He’s got a good turn of pace and he utilizes this off the dribble and can earn free throws doing so.
On this play, Gonzalez uses the screen to get downhill and gets to the rim and finishes at the rim plus the foul:
Gonzalez again uses the threat of the screen as a means get attack off the dribble to get downhill and to the rim, where he is fouled and earns two free throws:
From the wing, Gonzalez drives and gets to the rim and attacks where he is again fouled and earns two free throws:
From the perimeter, Gonzalez gets the jump on his defender and draws the foul and two more free throws:
Gonzalez’s overall movement is strong, and his movement off the ball helps creates opportunities.
On an out-of-bounds play, Gonzalez is able to free himself and makes a cut to receive the ball and he hangs and hits the runner at the rim:
This play begins with a missed three from Gonzalez but following a rebound from Tavares, Gonzalez makes a cut and is found by Tavares and scores the basket at the rim, plus the foul:
On an entry pass to Tavares on the block, Gonzalez makes a good cut and receives the ball from Tavares and is fouled at the rim for the free throws:
Gonzalez also utilizes this movement off the ball to attack the offensive glass. He shows flashes of steaming in from behind on shots.
Off of a missed shot, Gonzalez steams in behind the defense upon the shot release, grabs the offensive rebound and sticks the follow all in one motion:
When the shot from Mario Hezonja goes up, Gonzalez immediately takes off from the perimeter and gets ahead of every other player under the rim to collect the miss and score at the rim:
Hustle plays like can translate in most settings, and Gonzalez has found a knack early in his career for making plays like this.
The three-point shooting isn’t obviously all there yet, and nearly half of Gonzalez’s very limited shots per game are threes, but he’s release and form look solid at this early stage.
Chasing the game against Olympiacos, the ball is thrust forward into the hands of Gonzalez, who hits the catch-and-shoot three-pointer:
He would hit a three-pointer of a different kind as, again he pushes up the floor himself this time and pulls up into a three-pointer:
In a more normal situation, Gonzalez is waiting in the corner. And when the ball is kicked out to him after the drive, Gonzalez does well to fake the shot, take a step, and hit the three at the buzzer:
A very patient and mature play there from Gonzalez to let the defender go by despite the need to get the shot away with time winding down.
It’s not much of a sample — that line on its own can basically be used to describe everything related to Gonzalez, to be fair — but I like shot shot, I like the form, and I would back Gonzalez to shoot a higher percentage from three in the future.
Looking at some of Gonzalez’s limitations, you’d obviously like to see him shoot a little better than 42% from the field and there’s definitely scope for this to be the case — he gets into some good areas getting to the rim but just obviously doesn’t have that polish yet.
On this play, Gonzalez does well to find the space on the drive but when he tries to finish with his off hand, his left, he misses at the rim as he’s challenged:
Gonzalez at least shows a willingness to attack on his weaker side and does so again on this play driving to his left and attempting to finish with the left hand but just places his shot too hard, and the shot rolls off the rim:
Again, Gonzalez gets into a good spot here as he drives by Evan Fournier and frees himself to hang and hit off the glass but just doesn’t have the finesse on this play:
Sometimes Gonzalez can drive into spaces with predictable outcomes; another way of phrasing that can be that Gonzalez drives into opportunities that are likely to be blocked and struggles to change this outcome.
Gonzalez rejects the screen on this play and attacks the rim, but he is blocked by the defender waiting to slide over:
Perhaps Gonzalez might be better served by a runner/floater in this spot.
This next play again highlights that when driving against length, Gonzalez may struggle at the rim as he’s blocked by the length on this play near the rim:
Playmaking/passing
As perhaps highlighted just above with the shots that Gonzalez had blocked on drives to the rim, Gonzalez is not the pass-first type of player and when he does look to pass it’s a bit messy.
This play I think is emblematic of Gonzalez: he drives first, and when every option in front of him to score evaporates then he looks to pass out, and when he does it results in a turnover:
In the pick-and-roll, Gonzalez passes into a crowd and the turnover is committed:
Again, Gonzalez gets inside the on the drive but his attempted pass inside is intercepted for the turnover:
On the drive on a switch, Gonzalez struggles to shake the defender his attempted pass ends up slipping out of his hands for a turnover:
Passing and playmaking are not priorities in Gonzalez’s game right now, nor are they his strengths. I guess you could say it’s good he doesn’t attempt them too much for that exact reason, but it is disappointing it’s not in his locker right now. The passing quality can of course be improved but the feel and vision to find teammates? That’ll take a lot more work if it’s lying well beneath the surface, of which has not been scratched much.
Defense
There’s been moments to like offensively for Gonzalez but his defense is definitely his strongest aspect of his game right now.
As an on-ball defender, Gonzalez shows great determination and effort to stay in front of his man, but he also possesses the footwork and lateral movement to do so.
From the corner, Gonzalez is faced with a herky-jerky move but doesn’t bite on the play and is on his toes defensively and contains the offensive player before getting up a contest on the settled shot:
On this play, Gonzalez helps prevent the penetration inside, brushes off the screen, marshals Beaubois all the way from the perimeter, to the rim, back out to the three-point line. He again prevents the penetration inside and puts up a good contest on the three-pointer...all for naught sadly for Gonzalez as Beaubois drains the three, but it takes nothing away from the defensive efforts from Gonzalez on this possession:
Here, Gonzalez does well to defend the drive inside and helps force a pass, and again sticks with the play as the ball is handed back to Gonzalez’s man on the perimeter, and Gonzalez contests the shot well at the end of the shot clock:
This next play exemplifies Gonzalez’s great defensive effort and ability; he pressures the defender in the frontcourt, prevents penetration inside, navigates multiple screening efforts, forces the offense to look elsewhere, but when Gonzalez switches on a drive his immaturity shows as he reaches from behind on the drive and is called for a foul:
Really encouraging, hounding defense there from Gonzalez, but he just can’t complete the play and settles for the steal.
Gonzalez, at times, can also turn defense into offense as he does on this possession as he gets a hand in for the steal and finishes at the rim in transition off the turnover:
This time, Gonzalez’s ‘reach from behind’ tendency works out in his favor on this occasion, poking the ball loose from behind and sets up an offensive opportunity:
What is enjoyable about watching Gonzalez on the defensive end is his hustle and his reluctance to give up on plays when many defenders would concede.
On a fastbreak opportunity with a basket at the rim almost inevitable, Gonzalez rises to challenge the shot at the rim and commits a foul, making the offensive player earn the two points:
After a Real Madrid turnover, Gonzalez hustles back and tries to position his body to try and contest the shot at the rim as the last defender, and although he commits the foul he prevents a certain two points and showcases his determination and hustle:
On this drive, as the help defender, Gonzalez does well to rotate and contests the shot at the rim, drawing an offensive foul in another hustle/determined play to prevent a basket at the rim:
There are occasions where Gonzalez is able to see his efforts rewarded such as this play here in transition where Gonzalez is somehow able to produce a block on what should have been a certain basket:
As the backline defender, Gonzalez does well to rotate and, essentially, block this shot at the rim...while called for, I think, an unfair foul, but an impressive block attempt nevertheless:
Off of the dribble this time, Gonzalez blocks the shot after sticking with the drive but again his inexperience shows as the loose ball from the block ends back in the hands of the offensive player, and Gonzalez just gets off his feet too soon. The basket is scored, but it’s another good defensive play from Gonzalez here:
We’ve seen some of Gonzalez’s defensive inexperience/negative tendencies in some of these clips, but these next clips will show these a little more explicitly.
We’ve seen some of Gonzalez’s reaching tendencies — sometimes they work, sometimes they don’t. This play sees Gonzalez pick up the pressure and do a good initial job preventing the drive inside, but on the second effort when the ball is returned to his man Gonzalez is beaten on the drive and tries his reach as he’s beaten, and the basket is scored:
Gonzalez’s willingness to rotate and try and contest can put him in unfortunate situations where he gets dunked on, such as this play (and also opens up the opportunity to be called for ‘and-1’ fouls):
Then there are plays like this where you’d like to see Gonzalez pick up the switch here — and he is normally more alert than this — and pick up the drive and contest at the rim, but he’s too late to do so and the basket is scored:
These are, overall, small grievances defensively, but they don’t deter massively from a positive evaluation of Gonzalez’s defense. Yes, there are rookie mistakes/lapses, yes the reach ins are a bit lazy at times but Gonzales is an active, determined defender who for the most gives maximum effort even in possessions which could be seen as lost causes.
There’s real defensive potential here — not only does Gonzalez possess solid defensive tendencies for steals, blocks, and his overall timing, but his strong lateral movement helps him contain offensive players. When all of these elements are combined with a willingness to defend, it makes the potential here for Gonzalez more intriguing.
In summary
Hugo Gonzalez is an intriguing prospect. There’s a very limited sample size in evaluating him as a prospect, both in terms of the team he plays with and his role within that. However, we’ll give it a try!
Offensively, you could say Gonzalez plays in a manner which would appear suited for the modern NBA: it’s either drives to the rim or three-pointers. Gonzalez doesn’t appear to engage a ton in mid-range jumpers, nor jump shots off of the dribble. Gonzalez showed flashes of this at times and those are encouraging but I think, right now, Gonzalez is most comfortable offensively when he’s getting to the rim. He has mixed success there and he attacks with force but could be seen as a little out of control at times.
In terms of a three-point shot, I really like what I see: the form looks solid, he’s shown maturity in working openings for himself — I would back Gonzalez to shoot better than 30% from three going forward, I think there’s something to work with here. Other aspects that I think serve Gonzalez well offensively are his movements off the ball, and he attacks the glass with a sense of purpose and creates plays for himself through sheer determination to rush in off of shots and collects offensive rebounds.
This sense of determination can be seen in other aspects of his game but from an offensive point of view none more so than his efforts to try crash the glass. Gonzalez makes good cuts off the ball, and this also opens up avenues for some easy offense/opportunities to lean into the stronger aspects of Gonzalez’s offense.
In terms of playmaking, this is arguably the most disappointing element of Gonzalez’s game right now. Obviously, he’s not going to get a ton of usage or opportunities with the ball in his hands with Real Madrid, but when he did a bit more of this with the Spanish national team Gonzalez’s ability to find his teammates were constantly thwarted by passes into traffic. This, in combination with a ‘drive/score first, pass second’ mentality on the offensive end can land him and his team in trouble and can result in turnovers. Unlike a prospect like Ben Saraf, who uses his ability to drive to the rim to help spray passes to the corner, this type of vision, tendency, and ability hasn’t really emerged in Gonzalez’s game, and this will be a knock against his overall stock.
The defensive end of the court is where Gonzales is best right now. He plays a lot bigger than 6-foot-6 and it shows at times with some of his really impressive blocks, either through hustle plays or through good rotations. Gonzalez always tries defensively, clearly priding himself on this end of the floor.
He’s good at keeping players in front of him off the dribble and he provides multiple efforts defensively on possessions. Gonzalez is good at navigating around screens and does well to contest shots and close out defensive possessions. He shows good tendencies to create steals but occasionally gets sucked into gambling on steals or reach arounds, which can lead to Gonzalez being beaten offensively or called for fouls.
There is, at times, an immaturity/inexperience to Gonzalez defense where he will do really well defensively but lets himself down with a silly reach or lapse. This is to be expected and those mistakes can quickly see him yanked in a high stakes games/competition in the Euroleague on a mature, stacked team like Real Madrid. But the willingness to not give up defensively and hustle back to try close down a certain basket, his willingness and ability to keep offensive players in front of him all help make up for these types of errors. Gonzalez cares defensively, and this attitude mixed in with actual defensive ability will enamor him to teams.
It would be fascinating to see Gonzalez play a larger roles and see what he could do with a larger role, but in the limited time he had with Real Madrid there’s certainly enough to comprise a prospect with interesting potential, but potential that will take years to unlock.
What other outlets report
Gonzalez appears to be slotted for a late first round draft selection, with
Sam Vecenie of The Athletic mocking Gonzalez 26th overall with this to add:
Gonzalez is a tremendous athlete playing in Spain for Real Madrid and has started to get some playing time here and there for the senior team as a teenager. He plays with an exceptional motor and just consistently plays incredibly hard all of the time. He’s one of those dudes who always gives second and third efforts across the board, both on offense and defense, to get loose balls. From a skill perspective, Gonzalez shows some on-ball ability, but it’s going to take time for him to get to NBA level with it. The swing skill here will be the jumper. He’s good enough to be an impactful defender and off-ball player. However, he’s going to have to make 3s. So far this year, he’s only made 29 percent, and it’s never been consistent.
Vecenie’s assessment is consistent with what we’ve looked at with Gonzalez: high motor, gives a lot of effort, some on-ball potential but patience will be required. Vecenie pins Gonzalez’s NBA future on the ability on to make threes, which is very much what it comes down to when you’re a wing player.
ESPN mock Gonzalez in a similar manner, with
Jonathan Givony ranking Gonzalez 23rd on ESPN’s big-board:
Gonzalez has seen an increase in playing time over the past month, averaging nearly 20 minutes per game and delivering impressive moments on both ends of the floor. Gonzalez is enjoying a little more freedom offensively, allowing him to show off his explosiveness, passing and finishing prowess, while making a major impact defensively, flying all over the court and making plays on and off the ball. It’s been a stark reminder for why Gonzalez started the season as a projected lottery pick, leading some scouts to wonder where his draft stock would be if he were in a more favorable playing situation.
With Gonzalez’s regular season yet to finish, and a likely long playoff run in store with Real Madrid as the No. 1 seed, its almost a certainty teams will be unable to evaluate him in a workout setting. It also remains to be seen if he will be able to fulfill his medical, measurements and NBA combine activity as his season might not be done by June 25.
The potential lack of availability of Gonzalez and lack of measurements may lower his stock; there is already a disparity between outlets reporting Gonzalez as either 6’6 or 6’7...
Kyle Mann of The Ringer, meanwhile, does not project Gonzalez as a first round pick and lists Gonzalez 45th on The Ringer’s big-board, with this to say regarding Gonzalez:
It’s extremely tricky to project international prospects in minimal roles. That is the case with Gonzalez, the wing-sized ball handler who was more or less thrown on-court scraps for the past two seasons with Real Madrid, surrounded by several ex-NBA players and quality EuroLeague vets.
Gonzalez has a terrific motor, and his effort on defense rarely wanes. His live dribble is smooth, as if the ball and his hand are one. But while his gait and movement are also fluid, there are some concerns about his pace. That’s partly because he still hasn’t fully earned respect as a shooter (aside from single-event hot streaks, he’s hovered in the high 20, low 30 percent range on 3s); defenses typically soft close on him or just ignore him entirely. His energy and foot patterns when attacking the paint are impressive, but I’d like to see him go off script a bit more when those patterns are interrupted—his discomfort with physicality can often lead him to either miss cutters or spot-up shooters or go two steps too far into traffic and throw an errant pass. There are things to like, but expectations should be (very) measured.
Again, three-point shooting appears to be a concern which is fair, but as noted the sample size and role makes it hard at times to establish any sense of rhythm. But ultimately, as Mann notes, teams can just leave him alone on the perimeter if that shot doesn’t improve, which would be fatally detrimental to an NBA future.
Similarly,
Kevin O’Connor of Yahoo Sports mocks Gonzalez 32nd overall, with a caveat that this is likely too low for Gonzalez to fall:
Perhaps this is far too low for Gonzalez, who has seen his minutes tick up to nearly 20 per game in recent weeks and just had one of his best overall games with 13 points in 23 minutes. He is a high-motor wing with great defensive tools and a slashing style on offense. If his jumper and handle develop, he could be a versatile two-way starter.
Fit for the Hawks
The Hawks have two first round picks this year: 13 and 22 — two solid opportunities to add to what is an already expensive roster without a ton of avenues to improve outside of trades. I’d argue that the Hawks could really, really use a player who has a chance to contribute immediately towards the roster in some regard and 13 is a good use for this. If the Hawks want to bank on some potential for a longer term play, I think Gonzalez is a good place to look here at 22.
The Hawks wouldn’t need to bring him over immediately — and can save some salary in the meantime — and can find him a team in Europe likely to give him a much larger role to develop his offense, his three-point shot, and his playmaking abilities. If he were to come over immediately, the way in which he attacks the offensive glass in particular would be of use of Hawks head coach Quin Snyder.
However, it makes more conceivable sense to perhaps select a longer term play at 22, and there’s some real upside with Gonzalez if he can figure out the three-point shooting because the motor and the defense is there, and if that’s there and the three-point shot comes along there’s great potential for Hugo Gonzalez as an NBA prospect.
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