Welcome to Week 11! The fantasy story of Week 10 was a running back supernova. If you faced
Jonathan Taylor (48.1 Half PPR points),
Devon Achane (37.5),
Jahmyr Gibbs (36.7), or
TreVeyon Henderson (27.5), you probably lost…unless you had one of the others in your lineup. The highest wide receiver score of the week was
Drake London with 21.4 Half PPR fantasy points. 2024 was the year of the running back. The 2025 season has been more balanced between the two positions, but not this past week.
In other news, remember a few weeks ago when
the Giants made history by blowing an 18-point lead with less than six minutes left in the fourth quarter?
Jacksonville Jaguars: “Hold my beer!” The Jags were outscored 26-0 in the fourth quarter by Davis Mills and the Texans on Sunday, and lost 36-29 in the process.
Giants: “No, YOU hold MY beer!” Big Blue led the Bears 20-10 with under five minutes remaining in the fourth quarter on Sunday before giving up two late TDs and falling, 24-20. It was the
fourth time this season that the Giants blew a double-digit lead on the road.
Stats of the Week:
- Matthew Stafford is the first quarterback in NFL history to have three straight games with 4+ TD passes and zero INTs.
- For the first time in his NFL career, Stafford’s record as a starter is at .500 or better (he’s in his 17th season).
- Jaxson Dart is the first quarterback in NFL history to score a rushing touchdown in five straight games.
- Jonathan Taylor has scored three TDs in half of the Colts’ 10 games.
- At one point in their game against the Browns on Sunday, the Jets had 14 points and just four net yards of offense.
- In four of his eight starts this season, Justin Fields has put up less than 55 passing yards.
- The Browns on Sunday became the first team since 1950 to hold an opponent to less than 175 yards, commit no turnovers, and lose.
- In their last three games, the Seahawks have gotten out to first half leads of 35-0, 28-0, and 14-0.
Fantasy Stat of the Week: The QB1 in Week 10 was
Davis Mills, with 28.7 fantasy points.
AARP Game of the Week:
CIN@PIT.
Joe Flacco and
Aaron Rodgers are both in their 40s, and Sunday’s Steelers-Bengals game is a rematch of a Week 7 thriller that saw the two graybeards combine for almost 600 passing yards and seven TDs. Tom Brady and Drew Brees squared off three times during the 2020-2021 season, the only other matchups of 40+ starting QBs in NFL history.
Week 11, here we go!
Bye Weeks: IND, NO
Week 11 Rides, Fades, and Sleepers
For those who are familiar with this column, you know the drill. For everyone else: The Rides, Fades, and Sleepers is an analysis of players that I think are primed for an especially strong or poor performance, often as compared to consensus expectations. This isn’t a straight-up Start/Sit exercise. As a general rule, start your studs. I’ll rarely list the most obvious names at a position as “Rides” because those players are almost always expected to have strong performances. You don’t need me or anyone else telling you to start
Christian McCaffrey or
Trey McBride. While this analysis is intended for season-long play, it works for DFS formats too.
Half PPR scoring and Expert Consensus Rankings (ECR) are used for the column.
Each week, I’m picking a
Ride, Fade,and
Sleeper of the Week. The rules: The Ride of the Week can’t be a truly elite option, the Fade can’t be someone who nobody is starting anyway, and the Sleeper must be from down in the rankings.
My Rides, Fades, and Sleepers were a home run last week, with multiple hits up and down the board against relatively few big misses. Ride of the Week Emeka Egbuka was the WR4 with 20.5 fantasy points, while Fade of the Week Jordan Love scored just 7.8 and was the QB24. My three featured QB Rides (Matthew Stafford, Jaxson Dart, and Caleb Williams) all finished as Top-4 QBs for the week. You can check my work here:
Week 10.
Ride of the Week: Jaylen Warren (vs. CIN). I don’t often listen to what Head Coaches say, so I won’t give too much credence to Mike Tomlin saying he wants to get Warren more touches. Warren has been running well, and there’s no friendlier defense for running backs than Cincinnati. The Bengals can’t stop anything and have allowed the most rushing yards, second most total TDs (13), and most fantasy points per game (FPPG) to opposing running backs. Warren put up 158 yards from scrimmage on them in the wild Week 7 contest and should go off again. He’s ranked outside the Top-10 running backs this week and I have him as a Top-10 play.
Fade of the Week: Kenneth Walker III (@LAR). It’s been a disappointing season for Walker, and especially considering how Seattle is spinning the scoreboard. Zach Charbonnet dominates the work in the red zone, and that, plus a surprising lack of targets, is killing his value. Walker hasn’t scored a TD since Week 3 and only has 11 receptions on the season. Meanwhile, the Rams have allowed the fewest total TDs (2) and second fewest FPPG to opposing running backs. I think Seattle will want to establish the run in this crucial NFC west showdown, but how can you trust Walker at this point, after five straight outings with single-digit fantasy points? Fade.
Sleeper of the Week:
Aaron Rodgers (vs. CIN). I’ll double down. Rodgers’s fantasy production has steadily declined over the last three weeks, and he looked old in a bad outing on Sunday night at the Chargers. But it’s hard to forget the 25 fantasy points he had against the Bengals just four weeks ago. He’s ranked outside the Top-15 quarterbacks this week and against this matador defense, which has allowed the fifth most FPPG to opposing QBs, that’s too low. Rodgers needs a get-right game, and the Bengals at home is the tonic for that.
Quarterback:
Elite options this week – Lamar Jackson, Josh Allen, Jalen Hurts, Drake Maye, and Patrick Mahomes; the analysis starts below them.
Rides:
Justin Herbert (@JAC). Herbert had his second lowest output of the season last week (14.7 fantasy points), but prior to that he had three straight games above 25 fantasy points and I like his chances of bouncing back big this week. The Jaguars just got diced up by Davis Mills and on the season they’ve allowed the second most TD passes (21) and FPPG to opposing quarterbacks. Herbert continues to sling it all over the yard and has the weapons to exploit a leaky Jacksonville secondary.
Joe Flacco (@PIT). Flacco has averaged more than 40 pass attempts per game in his four starts as a Bengal, and because their defense is so atrocious he’ll need to continue that to keep his team in games. The Steelers’ defense is playing better since Flacco put up 342 yards and three TDs on them in Week 7, but their secondary is banged up and they’ve allowed the seventh most FPPG to opposing QBs. The magic could run out for Flacco at some point, but I don’t think it’ll be this week.
Other quarterbacks ranked inside the Top-15 this week who I think can beat their weekly ranking:
Dak Prescott (@LV) and
Matthew Stafford (vs. SEA), who has a tough matchup but is on fire.
Sleepers:
If you need a second quarterback in a Superflex, or a Bye-Week streamer for one of the quarterbacks who is injured or on a Bye, the options this week aren’t too bad. I think you can roll with both QBs in the Spain game (
Tua Tagovailoa (vs. WAS) and
Marcus Mariota (@MIA)). Both defenses are Bottom-8 in terms of FPPG allowed to opposing QBs.
Others: Geno Smith (vs. DAL) and
C.J. Stroud (or
Davis Mills if he gets another start) (@TEN).
Fades:
Jared Goff (@PHI). This is more about the matchup than anything else. The Eagles already had a good defense, but over the Bye they got healthier and added some nice pieces via trade. They’ve allowed a league-low eight TD passes on the season and shut down Jordan Love on the road on Monday night. I can see Goff having some struggles outdoors in a hostile environment. Good news: After this week, Goff plays six straight indoor games.
Bo Nix (vs. KC) has been maddening this season. Too often, the Broncos’ offense can’t do anything for large stretches of games, putting lots of pressure on their defense to keep them close enough for when Nix wakes up. Last Thursday night’s awful showing against the Raiders (a 10-7 Denver win) led to a ton of chatter about what might be wrong with Nix and the Denver offense. Maybe that sparks a good performance, but it won’t get easier this week. Steve Spagnuolo and the Chiefs have had two weeks to prepare. I don’t trust Nix against this good of a defense.
Sam Darnold (@LAR) has been excellent of late, but I still worry about him in a huge spot, and especially after what happened at the end of last season. This is a prove-it game for me, and I’ll go against the grain. I expect him to struggle on the road against a Top-10 pass defense and a strong pass rush.
Others: Lower-ranked quarterbacks that you might be considering, but who I’d avoid in Superflex this week, include
Mac Jones (@ARI),
Justin Fields (@NE),
Trevor Lawrence (vs. LAC, who have allowed the third fewest FPPG to opposing QBs),
Jacoby Brissett (vs. SF), and as tempting as it is to roll out Mr. 30/30,
Jameis Winston (vs. GB).
Running back:
Elite options this week – Bijan Robinson, Christian McCaffrey, Jahmyr Gibbs, James Cook, Devon Achane, and Josh Jacobs; the analysis starts below them.
Rides:
Ashton Jeanty (vs. DAL). The Cowboys made some moves at the trade deadline to shore up the middle of their defense. Will it make a difference? Jeanty’s rookie year has been underwhelming so far, but this is a good spot for him to jump-start it for the second half of the season. I expect a very heavy dose of Jeanty against Dallas’s defense, which has allowed the fourth most FPPG to opposing RBs. This game has the highest Vegas total of the week, at 50.5. Start what you can (within reason).
Rico Dowdle (@ATL). Dowdle wasn’t reeling off chunk plays like we’ve gotten used to in the Panthers’ surprising loss to the Saints last week, but he did find the end zone. Atlanta just got completely gashed by Jonathan Taylor, and I think Dowdle should bounce back in a pivotal “save your season” game for both teams. The Falcons have allowed the fifth most FPPG to opposing running backs, although last week’s evisceration at the hands of Taylor skews that number.
Woody Marks (@TEN) has double-digit carries in four straight games and while it’s still a timeshare behind a bad O-line, he’s a Flex play most weeks and an RB2 when the matchup is right. The matchup is more than right this week. The Titans have allowed the most total TDs (15) and second most FPPG to opposing RBs. Part of the reason for those numbers is favorable game scripts for the Titans’ opponents, who are usually leading.
Others ranked inside the Top-25 this week who I think have a good chance to outperform their rankings are
Javonte Williams (@LV),
TreVeyon Henderson (vs. NYJ),
Aaron Jones, Sr. (vs. CHI), and
Kimani Vidal (@JAC).
Sleepers:
R.J. Harvey (vs. KC) has a tough matchup, but with J.K. Dobbins likely out, I think he’ll get enough touches to be worthy of a start. Then again, trusting Sean Payton isn’t so easy.
Kyle Monangai (@MIN) took a backseat to D’Andre Swift last week, but he did get the Bears’ lone running back TD. Swift continues to play through various lower body injuries, and even if Swift gets his normal workload, Monangai can be flexed if you need him.
Others to consider if you’re stuck at RB:
Tyler Allgeier (vs. CAR),
Nick Chubb (@TEN), and
Sean Tucker (@BUF, who has allowed the sixth most FPPG and the most rushing TDs to the position (12)).
Fades:
Breece Hall (@NE). He’s talented and is on a roll the last two games, but he’s on an atrocious offense that can’t throw the ball at all, and I think the Pats will load up to stop him. They finally allowed a 50-yard rusher last week (Sean Tucker, of all people), but they’re the NFL’s No. 1 run defense and on the season they’ve allowed the fewest rushing yards and FPPG to opposing RBs, and just three total TDs to the position. Hall could salvage his day with a big play or two as a pass-catcher, but I’d look closely at my other choices before clicking on him.
“Bill” Merritt (@MIA, Spain) hasn’t cracked six fantasy points in five straight games and is an auto-fade for me. I just can’t trust the usage or production, even in better matchups.
I’ll fade both
Giants’ running backs (vs. GB). They’re sharing the work, the offense is in flux with yet another QB switch (plus the coaching change), and it’s a very tough matchup. The Packers have allowed the fourth-fewest FPPG to opposing RBs.
Other Fades (of RBs who’ve been regular starting options):
David Montgomery (@PHI),
Jordan Mason (vs. CHI), and
Zach Charbonnet (@LAR).
Wide receiver:
Elite options this week – Ja’Marr Chase, Justin Jefferson, Puka Nacua, Amon-Ra St. Brown, CeeDee Lamb, Drake London, and Jaxon Smith-Njigba; the analysis starts below them.
Rides:
Jaylen Waddle (vs. WAS, Spain) is a weekly auto-start for me at this point, regardless of matchup. He has at least 80 receiving yards in five of his last six games and is the clear #1 downfield option for the Dolphins. The Commanders continue to get torched by faster receivers (Tory Horton in Week 9 and Jameson Williams in Week 10 are the latest examples), and on the season they’ve allowed the most receiving yards and second most FPPG to opposing WRs and they’re tied for the second most TD catches allowed to the position (13). This is a smash spot for Waddle.
Let’s fire up both
Ladd McConkey and
Quentin Johnston (@JAC). McConkey hit for me last week, and his early-season swoon is over. With Keenan Allen continuing to see a lower snap share, I think Ladd and QJ are both live plays. It’s also a decent matchup, as the Jaguars are a bottom-10 unit vs. WRs.
I’ll ride
DeVonta Smith (vs. DET). The Eagles are going to need to score points this week, and I trust Smith more than A.J. Brown at this point. Smith has at least 15 fantasy points in three of his last five outings, and the Lions have allowed the sixth most FPPG and 13 receiving TDs to opposing WRs.
Other WRs ranked inside the Top-25 this week who have favorable matchups, and/or who I’m just high on for the week include
Nico Collins (@TEN),
D.K. Metcalf (vs. CIN) and in the same game
Tee Higgins (@PIT),
George Pickens (vs. LV), and
Stefon Diggs (@NYJ).
Sleepers:
Romeo Doubs (@NYG) only caught one pass for five yards on Monday night before exiting with a chest injury. He practiced in full on Wednesday and should be good to go. The Packers need to get their offense back on track and with so many injuries to their other pass-catchers, I like Doubs to step up this week. The Giants have allowed the third most receiving yards and seventh most FPPG to opposing WRs.
In the same game, how can you not like
Wan’Dale Robinson (vs. GB) this week? I know it’s a tough matchup, but with Jameis Winston slinging it and Darius Slayton dealing with a hamstring injury, Robinson should see enough volume to ensure a decent day. Robinson has seen double-digit targets in three of his last four games.
Tre Tucker (vs. DAL) hasn’t done much since the 9-145-3 outburst in Week 3 that temporarily broke the Waiver Wire. This week is a great opportunity for him to shine once again. Jakobi Meyers is gone, and the Cowboys have allowed the second most yards, the most FPPG, and the most TD catches (16) to opposing WRs. If you’re really stuck, I think you can also consider
Tyler Lockett as a deep sleeper.
Other WRs ranked outside the top-25 this week that I think you can plug into lineups if you’re in need include
Tet McMillan (@ATL),
Khalil Shakir (vs. TB) and in the same game,
Tez Johnson (@BUF),
Rashid Shaheed (@LAR), and
Jerry Jeudy (vs. BAL)
Want deeper sleepers or DFS fliers? How about
Malik Washington (vs. WAS),
Michael Wilson (vs. SF),
Dontayvion Wicks (@NYG), and
Mack Hollins (vs. NYJ)? All are in play for me as dart-throw Flexes.
Fades:
Courtland Sutton (vs. KC). After the last month or so, he’s getting hard to start with any degree of confidence. Sutton hasn’t topped 11 fantasy points in a game since Week 4, and his QB hasn’t been getting him the ball like he did last season. The matchup is a bad one, as the Chiefs have allowed the fewest receiving yards and second fewest FPPG to opposing WRs. I’d consider benching Sutton this week, depending on your other choices.
In the same game, we’ve got another wideout who’s been a big disappointment.
Xavier Worthy (@DEN) is capable of big plays, but it’s been a tough hang all season and especially since Rashee Rice’s return. Worthy only has one Top-20 weekly finish, is getting very few running plays, and hasn’t topped six fantasy points in three straight games. Throw in the brutal matchup (Denver has allowed the fewest FPPG and just two TDs to opposing WRs) and Worthy is a sit this week.
I’m not starting any
Jets WRs (@NE) for as long as Justin Fields is the starting QB. How can you? The numbers speak for themselves.
Other WRs ranked inside the Top-30 who I’m lower than consensus on this week include
Zay Flowers (@CLE) and
Rome Odunze (@MIN).
Tight end:
Elite options this week – Trey McBride is the only healthy TE averaging more than 12 fantasy points per game, so it really should only be him, but I’ll include
Brock Bowers and
George Kittle. The analysis starts below them.
Rides:
Dallas Goedert (vs. DET) has broken 15 fantasy points every other game for his last six outings. So that trend says big game coming. Obviously there’s no real analysis to that, but the point is that he’s had multiple big games, and Philly will need him this week. The Lions are a neutral matchup.
It sounds like
Ordonde Gadsden II (@JAC) should be good to go this week, and I think Justin Herbert will continue to get the ball to the rookie. It’s a tasty matchup to boot. Jacksonville has allowed the second most FPPG and TD catches (7) to opposing TEs.
Other TEs in the Top-12 who I think have a good shot to outperform their weekly ranking this week:
Kyle Pitts, Sr. (vs. CAR),
Travis Kelce (@DEN), and
Dalton Schultz (@TEN).
Sleepers:
Theo Johnson (vs. GB)isn’t really a sleeper, but he’s ranked outside the Top-12 and I like his chances to be targeted heavily with Jameis Winston slinging it and Darius Slayton iffy for the game.
After what he did against the Bengals a month ago, I’d be derelict in my duties as a fantasy analyst if I didn’t list
Pat Freiermuth (vs. CIN). You can’t be worse defending tight ends than the Bengals are. They’ve allowed the most everything to the position, including a ludicrous 12 TDs in nine games. Aaron Rodgers will know how to exploit their linebackers and safeties in coverage, as he did a month ago. You can also think about
Jonnu Smith. The matchup is that good.
If your starter is on a Bye or you’re otherwise in need, here are other TEs ranked outside the Top-12 this week that I think are worthy of consideration:
Dawson Knox (vs. TB, with Dalton Kincaid likely out) and
Zach Ertz (@MIA, Spain).
Fades:
No change this week.
T.J. Hockenson (vs. CHI) is still a weekly fade for me. He’s recorded just two catches in three straight games and I have little confidence in his QB to utilize him as the weapon he can be. He’s the TE27 on the season and shouldn’t be in lineups.
I’ll take another pass on
Luke Musgrave (@NYG). It’s a great opportunity, but I just don’t think he’s that good of a receiving weapon, and the Packers will likely look elsewhere to try to get their offense fixed.
I’ll fade both
David Njoku and
Harold Fannin, Jr. (vs. BAL). They’re both talented, but they’re splitting the work and Baltimore’s defense is suddenly a lot better.
PK and D/ST Streamers (ranked outside the top-12 for the week): See my
Week 11 Waiver Wire column.
Good luck in Week 11!
***This column appears each Thursday right here at Big Blue View. Each Monday, my Waiver Wire column appears here, and on Fridays you can find my weekly Prop bets of the week for the Giants, also right here. ***
Jeff Hafley had a couple games earlier this year where his guys did not play up to their standard. Now, it’s the offense struggling.
