Welcome to Week 9, and Happy Halloween! The NFL just gave us one of the most lopsided slates of games in recent memory. Sunday was a good day to mow the lawn or put up spooky decorations. NYJ 39 – CIN 38 was the only game out of 13 played in Week 8 that was decided by less than 10 points. Favorites won outright in 11 of 13 contests. Boo, and boo.
An interesting tidbit from Week 8: There were eight interconference games played, and the AFC team won seven of them.
Six teams were on Bye last week, and that number drops to four this week. That’s a bit of a reprieve, although rampant injuries are still hindering lineups. Several starting QBs should return to action this week, which is welcome news for fantasy managers.
Stats of the Week:
- Jonathan Taylor has scored 3 TDs in half of his team’s eight games.
- Taylor has 14 total TDs. That’s more than four NFL teams (Titans, Raiders, Falcons, Saints), and the same number as a fifth (Browns).
- In seven of the last eight seasons, the Giants have been either 1-7 or 2-6 after eight games.
- The Broncos have scored 77 points across their last five quarters.
- The Patriots are the first team since 1950 to not allow an opposing rusher to gain at least 50 yards in a game in the first eight games of a season. New England hosts the Falcons and Bijan Robinson this week.
- Joe Burrow is injured, but the other four starting QBs from the class of 2020 (Tua Tagovailoa, Justin Herbert, Jordan Love, and Jalen Hurts) combined to throw 14 TD passes this past weekend, against just one INT.
- Joe Flacco has targeted Ja’Marr Chase 42 times across the Bengals’ last two games. 42!
- The 2-5 Baltimore Ravens are currently the betting favorite (-110) to win the AFC North.
Week 9, here we go!
Bye Weeks: CLE, NYJ, PHI, TB
Week 9 Rides, Fades and Sleepers
For those who are familiar with this column, you know the drill. For everyone else: The Rides, Fades, and Sleepers is an analysis of players that I think are primed for an especially strong or poor performance, often as compared to consensus expectations. This isn’t a straight-up Start/Sit exercise. As a general rule, start your studs. I’ll rarely list the most obvious names at a position as “Rides” because those players are almost always expected to have strong performances. You don’t need me or anyone else telling you to start
Josh Allen or
Jonathan Taylor. While this analysis is intended for season-long play, it works for DFS formats too.
Half PPR scoring and Expert Consensus Rankings (ECR) are used for the column.
Each week, I’m picking a
Ride, Fade,and
Sleeper of the Week. The rules: The Ride of the Week can’t be a truly elite option, the Fade can’t be someone who nobody is starting anyway, and the Sleeper must be an actual sleeper, from down in the rankings.
For the second straight week, I whiffed on my Ride, Fade, and Sleeper of the Week, but had a high hit rate on everything else. My tight end predictions were especially on point. So maybe skip ahead to the next section…You can check my work here:
Week 8.
Ride of the Week: Daniel Jones (@PIT). I know, I know. If you’ve watched a lot of NFL football during the 2020s, it’s tough to accept these two truths: Danny Dimes is playing outstanding football, and the highly paid Black and Gold defense is trash. But here we are, and I’m jumping on it. Jones captains an offense that has been an absolute Death Star through eight glorious weeks. He has topped 20 fantasy points in five of eight starts, and is currently the QB6 on the season, at 20.8 fantasy points per game (FPPG). Numbers don’t lie. On the flip side, the Steelers haven’t been able to stop anyone. They’ve allowed the most passing yards per game and second most FPPG to opposing quarterbacks.
Fade of the Week: Alvin Kamara (@LAR). I haven’t mentioned Kamara much this year. If he’s on your roster, he’s been a tough hang. It’s hard to bench a starting running back, but single digit points week after week aren’t helping you. His high output over the last six weeks is 10.1 fantasy points. Yikes. Maybe the QB change will help, or it could make things worse. Factor in a brutal matchup this week and Kamara is a sit for me. The Rams have allowed the third fewest FPPG to opposing running backs and are the only team in the NFL that hasn’t allowed a rushing TD to the position. They’ve also allowed just 31 receptions to running backs, which is Top-5. The game script is almost certainly going to be negative (the Rams are favored by 14). Hard pass.
Sleeper of the Week:
Colston Loveland (@CIN). The conventional wisdom that rookie tight ends never pop for fantasy has been taken to task in recent seasons, but so far, Loveland hasn’t joined that party. That could start to change this Sunday, thanks to two factors: A back injury to Cole Kmet that kept him out of the lineup last week, and a visit to every tight end’s favorite weekend destination, the Queen City. Loveland just saw a season high in snaps (81%) with Kmet out, and Cincinnati continues to be a gift matchup for opposing offenses in general and tight ends in particular. They’ve allowed the most FPPG, yards, and TDs (10) to the position, including the game-winner to Mason Taylor last week. Loveland is ranked outside the Top-12 TEs this week, and I think that’s low.
Quarterback:
Elite options this week – Lamar Jackson (expected to return), Patrick Mahomes, Josh Allen, Drake Maye, and Justin Herbert; the analysis starts below them. Note that
Maye and
Herbert are new adds to the elite ranks this week.
Rides:
Kyler Murray (@ DAL). Kyler is hard to trust, and especially coming off an injury, but “Ride the QB facing Dallas” has yet to miss for me this season so I’m back for another helping. Week after week, Big D’s D gets shredded. Last week at Denver was no exception. The Cowboys have yielded the most TD passes on the season (20) and the most FPPG to opposing quarterbacks. This game has the highest Vegas total of the week, at 53.5, and Marvin Harrison, Jr. should be back. If Kyler can’t get it done this week, then it’s time to rethink his viability as a fringe QB1 for fantasy.
Matthew Stafford (vs. NO). Stafford is playing as well as just about any quarterback, and his 17 TD passes is tied with Patrick Mahomes for the league lead (and, he’s played one fewer game). He’s also got the highest passer rating of his Hall of Fame career. The risk here is the Rams getting way out in front and taking the air out of the ball in the second half, but Stafford’s right arm is what will get them that lead. Start him confidently, in a favorable matchup at home.
Other QBs ranked inside the Top-15 this week who I think can beat their weekly ranking:
Jared Goff (v. MIN),
Joe Flacco (vs. CHI, assuming he plays), and in the same game,
Caleb Williams (@CIN), and
Dak Prescott (v. ARI) in a rebound performance, albeit against a decent pass defense.
Sleepers:
If you need a second quarterback in a Superflex, or a Bye-Week streamer for one of the quarterbacks who is injured or on a Bye, there are some OK choices in Week 9, starting with
Sam Darnold (@WAS). Darnold is playing excellent football, and it’s a nice matchup as Washington has allowed the sixth most FPPG to opposing QBs. Others to consider:
Aaron Rodgers (vs. IND),
Tua Tagovailoa (vs. BAL), and whoever starts between
Mac Jones and
Brock Purdy (@NYG).
Fades:
Bo Nix (@HOU). Nix has been an absolute monster over the last five quarters, but all of that was at home, against the Giants and Cowboys. Enter the Texans. They’re the only defense with more INTs than TD passes allowed, and they’ve yielded the fewest FPPG and TD passes (six) to opposing quarterbacks. Nix comes in red-hot and so does Houston’s defense, and I’ll give the edge to that excellent defense, at home.
If
Jayden Daniels (vs. SEA) returns from his hamstring injury this week, I think you need to think twice about auto-starting him. He has struggled to stay healthy (two separate leg injuries have already cost him three games) and is a re-injury risk. He’s also likely to run less than normal. On top of that, the Seahawks’ aggressive defense isn’t a favorable matchup and especially if his mobility is reduced.
Others: Lower-ranked quarterbacks that you might be considering, but who I’d try to avoid in Superflex this week, include
Trevor Lawrence (@LV),
C.J. Stroud (vs. DEN),
J.J. McCarthy (@DET; I’d wait a week to see how he plays),
Marcus Mariota (vs. SEA, if Daniels is out), and whoever starts at QB for the
Panthers (@GB).
Running back:
Elite options this week – Bijan Robinson, Christian McCaffrey, Jonathan Taylor, Jahmyr Gibbs, James Cook, and Josh Jacobs; the analysis starts below them.
Rides:
Derrick Henry (@MIA). One more big game and I’ll put Henry back in with the elites, but it’s hard to ignore how non-productive he was from Weeks 2-6. The Dolphins stymied Bijan Robinson on Sunday, which is among the biggest fantasy shockers of the season. Outside of that game they’ve been gashed by opposing backs (example, Rico Dowdle running wild for 200+ on them), and with Lamar Jackson back, Henry should have those big lanes to rumble through. Miami has allowed the third most rushing yards to opposing RBs and Henry should add a buck-twenty or so to that total.
Kyren Williams (vs. NO). Like Stafford, the risk here is that he’s wearing a baseball cap and laughing on the sidelines midway through the third quarter, with the Rams up 30. He’s still dominating the high-value touches, and it’s a good enough matchup. Plus, I expect the Rams to have a huge time-of-possession advantage, which bodes well for Williams.
D’Andre Swift (@CIN). Swift is in a full-blown timeshare with Kyle Monangai, but it has oddly helped his production, even as he plays through a groin injury. He’s the RB4 across the last three contests and has scored in each of those games. The Bengals had no answer for Breece Hall last week, and that’s been the trend all season. Their defense is an embarrassment across the board, and has allowed the most carries, yards, and FPPG to opposing RBs.
Others ranked inside the Top-25 this week who I think have a good chance to outperform their rankings are
Javonte Williams (vs. ARI),
Chase Brown (vs. CHI),
Kimani Vidal (@TEN),
Tyrone Tracy, Jr. (vs. SF), and
Bam Knight (@DAL).
Sleepers:
Kareem Hunt (@BUF). Isiah Pacheco got banged up at the end of the Monday night game and even if he plays, Hunt is getting a lot of the high-value touches in the red zone. He scored twice last week and is up to five TDs on the season. He also passed the eye test and didn’t look as slow. This is the Game of the Week and it could be another wild back-and-forth affair, which gives Hunt some upside. The Bills just put standout DT Ed Oliver on IR and have been vulnerable to the run (second most rushing TDs (9) and fifth most FPPG allowed to opposing RBs).
Other running backs ranked outside the Top-25 who I think are potential lineup fills if you need them this week:
Kyle Monangai (@CIN) and in the same game,
Samaje Perine (vs. CHI),
Woody Marks (vs. Den) and in the same game,
R.J. Harvey (@HOU),
Emmanuel Wilson (vs. CAR),
Tyjae Spears (vs. LAC),
Emari Demercado (@DAL), and
TreVeyon Henderson (vs. ATL), who finally did something last week, albeit in a second-half blowout.
Fades:
Rico Dowdle and
Chuba Hubbard (@GB). Dave Canales’s post-game comments have people thinking that Dowdle is about to get 80% of the snaps and touches, but I’ll believe it when I see it. If this continues to be even a 60/40 split, that makes both backs a tough play when it’s not a good matchup. This is a decidedly bad matchup. The Packers have allowed the fewest FPPG to opposing running backs, and just two total TDs to the position. Regardless of who is under center for the Panthers, this will be a tough slog.
Tyler Allgeier (@NE). You obviously aren’t benching Bijan Robinson, but if you’ve been playing Allgeier as a Flex and getting away with it, I’d move away from that this week. The Patriots have been a brick wall up front, allowing the fewest rushing yards per game and second-fewest FPPG to opposing running backs.
“Bill” Merritt (vs. SEA) was a Fade for me last week and it hit, so let’s run it back. The matchup is a bad one (third fewest FPPG allowed to opposing RBs), and he’s been very hit-or-miss, depending on game script and Jayden Daniels being himself and worrying defenses with his legs. This feels like another down game for the hyped-up rookie.
Other Fades (of RBs who’ve been regular starting options):
Jordan Mason and
Aaron Jones (@DET), and
Tony Pollard (vs. LAC).
Wide receiver:
Elite options this week – Justin Jefferson, Ja’Marr Chase, Puka Nacua, CeeDee Lamb, Amon-Ra St. Brown, Rashee Rice, and Jaxon Smith-Njigba. The analysis starts below them.
Rides:
Michael Pittman, Jr. (@PIT) has been solid all year, and he should be a nice presence in fantasy lineups against Pittsburgh. Pittman has scored in six of eight contests and has seen nine targets in back-to-back games. The Steelers have given up the fifth most yards per game and seventh most FPPG to opposing wide receivers, and their pass defense has been lit up multiple times this season.
After a couple of down games,
Rome Odunze (@CIN) put up more than 100 yards against the Ravens last week, and I like him to have another productive afternoon against the Bengals. It’s a nice matchup in what should be a high-scoring affair (especially if Joe Flacco is able to play).
I haven’t had
Marvin Harrison, Jr. (@DAL) as a Ride all that many times since he came into the league, but just like his QB, I’ll stick with “ride No. 1 WR playing against Dallas”. The Cowboys can’t cover and have allowed the most TD catches (15) and FPPG to opposing WRs. Harrison should flourish.
I’ll ride
Zay Flowers (@MIA) and in the same game,
Jaylen Waddle (vs. BAL). Both are coming off strong outings and are the clear top receiving options on their respective teams. Miami has been a surprisingly tough matchup for wide receivers, but they just lost yet another CB for the season. The Ravens are getting healthier on defense so the stats are a little misleading, but they’ve allowed the second most FPPG to opposing wide receivers.
Other wide receivers ranked inside the Top-25 this week who have favorable matchups, and/or who I’m just high on for the week include
D.K. Metcalf (vs. IND),
Ladd McConkey (@TEN), and
Stefon Diggs (vs. ATL).
Sleepers:
I like
Jauan Jennings (@NYG) against the Giants’ banged-up secondary. The 49ers stumbled at Houston last week, but they’ll find an easier road against New York’s pass defense, which has allowed the most receiving yards and third mostFPPG to opposing WRs. In the same game, I think
Wan’Dale Robinson (vs. SF) should have some success against a decimated San Francisco defense that struggled to cover the slot last week.
Other WRs ranked outside the top-25 this week that I think you can plug into lineups if you’re in need include
Khalil Shakir (vs. KC),
Travis Hunter (@LV),
Josh Downs (@PIT),
D.J. Moore (@CIN),
Jameson Williams (vs. MIN), and
Kayshon Boutte (vs. ATL).
Fades:
Chris Olave (@LAR) scares me this week, mostly due to the QB change for the Saints. Olave has seen terrific volume (double-digit targets in six of eight games), but that was with a different quarterback and you never know if that will continue with a switch.
Courtland Sutton (@HOU) also makes me nervous this week. He was fine last week, although not really since it was the Cowboys. It was too easy for Denver to score and they didn’t need Sutton to be an alpha. This week’s draw is a team from the same state but unfortunately it’s the opposite end of the spectrum. Houston is the second toughest draw for wide receivers, after Sutton’s own team. The Texans have allowed the second fewest TD catches (three) and FPPG to opposing WRs.
I’ll fade all of the
Green Bay receivers. Here we go again. There are too many mouths to feed, Josh Jacobs and Tucker Kraft are the Top-2 options in the offense, and it’s hard to trust any of the wide receivers week-to-week. Jayden Reed and Dontayvion Wicks should be back soon to muck things up even more. Carolina is also a worse matchup than you’d think (sixth fewest FPPG allowed to opposing WRs).
Other WRs ranked inside the Top-35 who I’m lower than consensus on this week include
George Pickens (vs. ARI) and
Tee Higgins (vs. CHI, and especially if Joe Flacco is out).
Tight end:
Elite options this week – Trey McBride, Tyler Warren, and
Tucker Kraft. The analysis starts below them.
Rides:
George Kittle (@NYG) got involved in the passing game in his second game back from injury, and found the end zone in a lopsided loss. If Brock Purdy is back under center, Kittle should really shine, but even if it’s Mac Jones again, I like his chances at the Giants, who allowed two Dallas Goedert TDs last week and have their issues in coverage.
Jake Ferguson (vs. ARI) came into Week 8 as one of the NFL’s target leaders, and proceeded to get blanked. Ouch. It was a nightmare all around for the Cowboys’ air attack, but Denver can do that to you. I’ll bank on Ferguson getting back to business against the Cardinals, who’ve allowed the seventh most FPPG to tight ends.
Other tight ends in the Top-12 who I think have a good shot to outperform their weekly ranking this week:
Kyle Pitts, Sr. (@NE, and especially if Drake London misses another game),
Dalton Kincaid (vs. KC), and
Oronde Gadsden, II (@TEN).
Sleepers:
Tight end sleepers are hard to find this week. If you’re stuck, I think you can take a shot with either
Jonnu Smith or
Pat Freiermuth (vs. IND). Aaron Rodgers has been leaning on his tight ends, and the Colts are a great positional matchup. They’ve allowed the most receiving yards and third most FPPG to opposing tight ends.
Others to consider (outside the Top-15):
A.J. Barner (@WAS) and
Theo Johnson (vs. SF).
Fades:
Cut and paste: I’ll keep fading
T.J. Hockenson (@DET) each week, unless and until his performance changes my mind. He has yet to top six catches or 50 yards in a game, and currently sits as the TE24 for the season, at six points per contest. Could a QB change help? I doubt it. Pass.
Hunter Henry (vs. ATL) is a Fade for me once again. He’s hauled in a total of just 12 passes across his last five contests, as Drake Maye continues to pepper his array of wide receivers. Hunter is always a threat to score, and that’s what you’re hoping for if you start him. The matchup this week is awful. Atlanta has allowed the fewest FPPG to opposing tight ends, and just 7-105-1 TOTAL to the position across seven games.
Mark Andrews (@MIA) has had just one good game all season. Could he blow up in any given week? Yes, and he’s often the outlet target when the opponent blitzes, and Miami blitzes at the fifth highest rate in the NFL. But he only played one more snap than Isaiah Likely last week. Lamar Jackson returning is a positive, but I still think he’s a risky start.
PK and D/ST Streamers (ranked outside the top-15 for the week): See my
Week 9 Waiver Wire column.
Good luck in Week 9!
***This column appears each Thursday right here at Big Blue View. Each Monday, my Waiver Wire column appears here, and on Fridays you can find my weekly Prop bets of the week for the Giants, also right here. ***
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