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It matters for a GM and head coach on the hot seat
It’s still possible that the
New York Giants may make a draft trade or sign another free agent in the coming weeks, but speculating over the No. 3 pick in the
NFL Draft will probably dominate the conversation until the evening of April 24. What should the Giants do with that pick?
Never say never, but let’s assume that between Tennessee and Cleveland, Cam Ward will be off the board when the Giants pick, and even though Mason Graham and Ashton Jeanty are great prospects, the Giants will not take either one that high. That will leave the Giants with two of three very different choices from among Shedeur Sanders, Travis Hunter, and Abdul Carter.
If you’re a GM or a head coach, you’d like to always take the long view. After two consecutive embarrassing seasons, though, the Giants’ future has to be now. That’s not necessarily the best way to make decisions, but it’s the reality they find themselves in. Is going offense or defense the right move? And regardless of your answer, what is Hunter? Even SB Nation writers
can’t agree on that last one.
Dissecting wins and losses
One way to look at the problem is to decide whether offense or defense wins games these days in the NFL. Historically it was said that the team that wins the turnover battle prevails. Former Lions offensive coordinator Ben Johnson, now the head coach of the Bears, says that things have changed:
Of course Johnson, an offensive coach, would say that, but in today’s NFL passing does seem to be the name of the game. What do the stats on wins and losses have to say? Mike Sando of The Athletic looked at that:
NFL win rates last three seasons when ...
Win TO Battle: 76%
Win Pass EPA Differential: 77%
Win Both: 90%
Win Pass EPA, tie TO: 80%
Win Pass EPA, lose TO: 50%
Win TO but not pass EPA: 49%
Pass EPA takes into account many turnovers in addition to sacks; some overlap; also, a…
https://t.co/ut0tLTVWb9
— Mike Sando (@SandoNFL)
April 2, 2025
So the answer is simple - do both. Easier said than done, though, since you have to put the ball at risk to get a high EPA (expected points added) pass. For this purpose, I use
ESPN’s pass EPA numbers. EPA is calculated in several different ways by different analysts, but it generally values explosive plays more than short passes, passes that increase the chances of getting a first down depending on down and distance, successful passes in situations that affect game outcomes, and success against better defenses.
What do the Giants’ individual 2024 season games tell us about why they went 3-14? Was it more the turnovers or more the passing EPA? Let’s look at their three victories:
Cleveland: Both teams lost 2 fumbles and there were no interceptions by either team. Daniel Jones won the passing EPA battle over Deshaun Watson, 7.7 to -0.9.
Seattle: The Giants and
Seahawks each lost one fumble and there were no interceptions. Jones had a higher passing EPA (5.2) than Geno Smith (3.2).
Indianapolis: The Colts lost a fumble and had 2 passes intercepted, while the Giants had no turnovers. Drew Lock had an 8.2 passing EPA, while Joe Flacco’s was only 3.9.
Now let’s look at their most embarrassing defeats (this is admittedly subjective):
Minnesota: The Giants had 2 passes intercepted and no fumbles lost; Minnesota lost one fumble and had one pass intercepted. Sam Darnold had a pass EPA of 3.9 vs. Jones’ -0.9.
Philadelphia (first game): There were no turnovers in this game. Jalen Hurts had a passing EPA of 3.9 to Jones’ -0.7.
Tampa Bay: Each team lost a fumble and there were no interceptions. Baker Mayfield had a 5.0 passing EPA to Tommy DeVito’s 0.0.
Baltimore: The Ravens lost a fumble while the Giants did not, but Lamar Jackson was not intercepted while Tim Boyle was once. Jackson’s 8.1 passing EPA was a no-contest against Boyle’s 0.5.
Atlanta: Michael Penix Jr.’s 2.7 passing EPA wasn’t great but it outdistanced Drew Lock’s terrible -1.8. Lock was intercepted twice and Penix once, while the Giants lost a fumble while Atlanta did not.
Finally, let’s look at some of the heartbreakers, games the Giants
should have won but didn’t. We’ll skip the first Washington game, which was lost mainly by the absence of a kicker for the Giants.
Dallas (first game): Daniel Jones’ pass EPA of 6.2 was a bit better than Dak Prescott’s 5.2. Neither team lost a fumble in that game but Jones was intercepted once while Prescott was not.
Cincinnati: Joe Burrow only had a passing EPA of 1.9, but Jones’ terrible -1.8 lost the game for them. The Bengals lost a fumble while the Giants were intercepted once, but that once was a killer.
Pittsburgh: Russell Wilson’s 3.6 passing EPA beat Jones’ 1.8. Both teams lost a fumble but Jones was intercepted once (with the game on the line) while Wilson was not.
Carolina: Bryce Young only had a 2.7 pass EPA but that was better than Jones’ 1.1. Jones was intercepted twice while Young didn’t cough it up at all. Both teams lost a fumble though the Giants’ was far more costly.
So who should the Giants draft?
In all likelihood, the Giants will have their pick of two of the three among Sanders, Hunter, and Carter. Last season they were 13th-highest in interceptions of their quarterbackss and tied for eighth-highest in fumbles lost. You can certainly argue that a few of their losses were primarily due to turnovers - the Cincinnati, Carolina, and Atlanta games in particular were awful in that regard. On the other hand, they had the worst imaginable turnover in Seattle - a fumble at the goal line returned for a TD - and still won that game.
An inept passing game seems to be more the culprit for their win-loss record. There were 19 games in which a
QB recorded a passing EPA of 9.0 or better last season, and none of them was by a 2024 Giants quarterback. Teams were 17-2 in those games. Drew Lock’s 8.2 vs. the Colts and Daniel Jones’ 7.7 vs. the
Browns were the Giants’ two highest of the season, and those were two of their three season victories. That might argue that the Giants should grab Sanders if he’s there at No. 3...IF you think he can be a franchise quarterback. However, the league’s third-highest passing EPA game last season was Jameis Winston’s 11.1 in a victory over Baltimore, the 18th-highest was Russell Wilson’s 9.0 in a win over Cincinnati, and Winston’s 8.8 was the 20th-highest in a 41-32 loss in Denver. So with both Wilson and Winston in blue, the quarterback situation is much better in 2025 regardless of whether they take or pass on Sanders.
As Sando alludes to in his tweet, quarterback EPA includes sacks, interceptions, and QB fumbles. Winston was seventh in pressure-to-sack ratio (23.3%) in the NFL last season (
per PFF) and Wilson was tied for eighth (23.1), which limits both QBs’ effectiveness. (By comparison, Josh Allen was at 9.0%.) Winston led the NFL in turnover-worthy play rate at 5.2% while Wilson was only at 1.6%, almost the lowest of any quarterback. Sanders had a surprisingly middle-of-the-pack 16.5% pressure-to-sack ratio last season and one of the lowest turnover-worthy play rates (1.1%) in the FBS, considering the historically awful offensive line he played behind.
Cory Kinnan of
Reception Perception shows that Sanders can make all the throws successfully, even though his reputation is that he doesn’t have the strongest arm on deep passes and does a lot of short stuff:
Shedeur Sanders' profile is live at
@RecepPerception.
He's insanely accurate. And what gets lost in the shuffle of the high volume of short-game discourse that we have is that he also threw 15% of his throws over 20 yards, more than Ward.
full profile here:…
pic.twitter.com/xBl4BlQLYq
— Cory (@fakecorykinnan)
March 20, 2025
Pass rush doesn’t directly factor into QB EPA, but it does affect a QB’s ability to get the ball downfield and can indirectly result in interceptions. In that sense, Abdul Carter is the standout of this draft class, although there are others available who might provide similarly effective play:
Courtesy of Pro Football Focus
Carter tied for fifth in sacks with 12, but his 285 pass rush snaps were less than the four players who had more. His pass rush win rate of 23.1% was third.
As good as Abdul Carter looks, it’s not clear whether he could impact the Giants’ fortunes in 2025 as much as an offensive player could. The Giants’ pass rush was fairly good last year even with Dexter Lawrence missing part of the season. Only one of the top 50 quarterback passing EPA games in the NFL last season came against the Giants’ defense (Lamar Jackson’s 8.1). Carter would certainly make a good pass rush better, but would that translate into more wins? After facing the Eagles’ waves of pass rushers in the
Super Bowl, even Patrick Mahomes might say yes. Adding Carter to a front of Lawrence, Burns, Thibodeaux, and Golston could make the defense formidable.
That leaves Travis Hunter. Hunter had the second-highest PFF coverage grade among FBS starters. He tied for seventh in interceptions with four, which doesn’t necessarily sound spectacular until you realize he was only targeted 37 times, tied for 240th among FBS cornerbacks. Of course a quarterback’s passing EPA has something to do with his receivers, and Hunter also had an 80% reception rate and was 2nd in the FBS in catches (92), yards (1,152), and TDs (14). Some of that has to be attributed to Sanders’ excellent accuracy and anticipation skill, but a lot of that has to do with Hunter himself. Hunter’s reputation has developed as an elite CB who can also play receiver. Matt Harmon of Reception Perception argues that Hunter is just as elite a wide receiver as he is a cornerback:
NEW Travis Hunter's
#ReceptionPerception is now up on the site
Highlights:
- 92nd percentile success rate vs. man
- 97th percentile success rate vs. zone
- 97th percentile success rate vs. press
- Rare catching ability
- Frequently makes the first defenders miss after the…
pic.twitter.com/YZt4Xda0CK
— Matt Harmon (@MattHarmon_BYB)
March 31, 2025
The bottom line is that as anguished as Giants fans are about not getting the No. 1 draft pick and a likely shot at Cam Ward, they are bound to get a really good player at No. 3, no matter which of these it is. Their most direct path to a better record in 2025 will be to get more out of the passing game than they did in 2024. Drafting Sanders probably would not do that, since he will likely sit behind Wilson and Winston for a while. Drafting Carter might, although he would be added to what is already a fairly good group. Taking Hunter would potentially affect both the Giants’ passing game and their turnover rate on defense. And as Sando’s numbers suggest, winning both the pass EPA and turnover battles is what produces a 90% chance of winning in any game. For that reason I’d probably draft the unicorn, Hunter.
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