Rick Scuteri-Imagn Images
It’s time to open ourselves up for disappointment.
My love for the
San Francisco Giants means that at least once a year I put myself in a position to be humiliated by them by getting my hopes up and wishing big things for them.
This is that moment.
Now, IN NO WAY is this a prediction thread, because I’m terrible at positive predictions regarding the Giants. It’s so much easier to predict failure — because that’s mostly what baseball (and life) is — but it’s even easier to dream big about one’s favorite team after they’ve had a great Spring Training. And if you’re a Giants fan, that result plus the switch in leadership personality from an anxious, malfunctioning artificial intelligence to Buster Posey has the effect of making anything seem possible.
As someone who doesn’t contemplate hope or dream anymore, I had to go and look up the difference between these two words. Turns out, it’s meaningful for a baseball discussion: “hope” means the speaker believes their statement is possible. “Wish” expresses an outcome the speaker doesn’t believe is possible right now. For example: I
hope the Giants have a winning season. I
wish the Giants would make the postseason.
For the purposes of this post, though, I’m calling a wish a dream, because a Hopes & Dreams List sounds better than a Hopes & Wishes List. I feel good about that because of that old Disney lyric, “A dream is a wish your heart makes.” And goodness, does my heart wish a lot of things for a baseball team I have absolutely no control over.
Hope
The Spring Training results transfer over to the regular season for the most part
It’s not like I’m expecting the team’s .760 winning percentage (19-6) from the Cactus League to translate 100% to the regular season (123 wins), but I hope that a decent chunk of their success manages to stand tall against major league competition. The opposite has happened before: the 1984 Giants were 18-9
in Spring Training and went on to lose 96 games in the regular season.
Landen Roupp’s spring carries over
Whether he’s the fifth starter or a long reliever, the organization has been hyped about the guy since at least last Spring Training. Injuries have hobbled his career, but this seems to be the moment for the 26-year old righty. He still has a lot to prove, but he’s on track to do so.
Hayden Birdsong is That Guy
There have been very few days in the offseason where I haven’t thought of Birdsong at least in passing. l don’t see him as the next Lincecum or Bumgarner... but Matt Cain? The Prodigal Son era of Ryan Vogelsong’s Giants career? He could wind up starting the season in Triple-A, sure, or make the team as a reliever rather than in the rotation — but in any case, I hope the inklings of awesomeness we got from him last season blossom in 2025. I know ink doesn’t blossom, but that’s how excitable Birdsong makes me — I’ll confuse a gosh danged metaphor in the blink of an eye.
Logan Webb stays healthy
I just think it’s tough to pencil in a pitcher for 200+ innings every season. Now, the hope here isn’t that he hits 200 innings, it’s that he stays (relatively) healthy and is able to pitch when the team needs him most.
Ryan Walker regresses to an awesome mean
It’s stayed ringing in my ears for months and months Roger Munter’s quasi-warning about reliever usage. He (author of the vital
There R Giants prospects site) has mentioned here and elsewhere that the stage was set for Camilo Doval’s fall from grace in 2024 by extreme usage in 2023. Walker pitched 80 innings in 2024 and a great many of them were high leverage. It was a 19-inning jump from 2023, too. FanGraphs statted him out as a 2-win player. Baseball Reference saw a 3-win player. So, a step back could mean going to a 1-win or 2-win player, depending on who’s looking at it; but if he’s as awesome as he’s seemed the past two seasons — maybe it won’t be that bad?
The roster is Melvin-proof
This is where discussions of bullpen usage really matter. I am not really a fan of Bob Melvin as a manager, but I don’t think he’s a disaster, either. That’s an incredible compliment to pay an MLB manager, I think. To simplify the matter, I’ll just say that Dusty Baker had Barry Bonds and Bruce Bochy had some of the most dominant pitching in the franchise’s history, but also Buster Posey, Brandon Crawford, Pablo Sandoval, and sometimes Brandon Belt. Talent makes managing a whole lot easier, and so as long as Melvin doesn’t try to insert himself as the story or make panic moves as he enters a potential lame duck (recall that his deal for 2026 is an option for the team) the Giants will be in good shape if the spring training vibes carry over to actual regular season results. That might feel like more of a wish than a hope, but there it is.
The Giants win at least 82 games
Maybe I could’ve just said, “I hope the Giants don’t suck this year,” but because I — and the rest of us — love the team, a spirited 78-84 record might be considered a “didn’t suck!” season and so I feel it necessary to make a distinction by placing a win total on the year.
Depending on how one considers the team’s 81-81 season in 2022, in the entire history of the franchise, the Giants have never had more than four straight losing seasons. If they have another one here in 2025, that would make it four straight
if you consider .500 to not be “winning.” On the one hand, this being — at worst — the fourth consecutive losing season wouldn’t be cause for alarm, but on the other hand, I don’t want them to mess around with that streak. Buster Posey has been a part of some losing Giants teams, but it’d be a bit of a bummer if his first as an executive was one.
Heliot Ramos and Tyler Fitzgerald don’t crater
Ramos was a 2-WAR player in 2024 and Fitzgerald was a 3-WAR player. I hope neither of them fall below 1.5.
Willy Adames and Matt Chapman are the anchors
Chapman doesn’t have to repeat his stellar 5.5 fWAR campaign from 2024, but a step back to a 4-WAR player while Adames repeats Chapman’s 2024 (and his own) in that 5-win range is my broad hope. If they both wind up being 4-win players? That’d be fine, too. If we assume that Bailey’s defense will also propel him into the 4-win player range again, that’d give the Giants three such players. They haven’t had three 4+-fWAR position players on the same team in a season since 2015, when Posey (6.8 fWAR), Matt Duffy (4.4), Brandon Crawford (4.3), Brandon Belt (3.9), and Joe Panik (3.8) were making us believe the good times would never end.
Wilmer Flores torments major league pitching again
While this is another one of those “Spring Training stats carrying over”-level hopes, it’s born of the fact that he hasn’t been a bad hitter for a long time. If he’s healthy at all or even for a good chunk of the season, he can help the Giants’ lineup very much. Recall that in 2023, he basically
was the lineup.
Bryce Eldridge is a luxury
Now, we all want to see this prospect become a dangerous left-handed power threat in the lineup, but my hope is that his development happens in the shadows of the big league team’s success. The best case scenario is that he’s an add-on that fuels a run of success already in progress. If he’s a desperation three from the other basket as the buzzer sounds at halftime, well, it probably means the Giants aren’t doing all that great.
Jung Hoo Lee is a necessity
Of all the options for the label, I think Jung Hoo Lee is the obvious choice to be “the straw that stirs the drink.” Because we can’t predict baseball, that might not wind up being the case, of course, but I hope that if the Giants’ lineup is performing well, it’s because he’s an important part of it. A tough guy who’s hard to strike out and can get hits off tough pitches is a critical part of any lineup — a guy who can destabilize the confidence of an opponent’s battery might help crack open the big inning more often.
Dream
Kyle Harrison regains his velocity
The bloom might be off the rose for the 23-year old, but there’s still plenty of time to work on his mechanics and reinvent himself. If he can adapt to Eno Sarris’s advice (
posted yesterday to Bluesky: “A high spin efficiency low slot guy who doesn’t pronate well and lost velo... needs to study Sean Manaea and Andrew Heaney to figure something out”), perhaps there’s a way he can become an important player for the Giants (as either a rostered player or a trade piece) down the road. I believe the beat writers who’ve told us for years now that he, too, has
That Dawg in him. It’d be nice to see it on the field again.
At least one Giant hits 30 home runs this year
It’s actually not a big deal. Because of their ballpark, the Giants will never be a consistently great or even good offensive team. Dingers may dazzle, but pitching and defense wins championships. But! Just to see if it’s possible in a post-Bonds era? Why not dream about it? If Chapman, Adames, and Ramos all hit in 25-28 home runs, nobody’s going to complain about another year without a 30-home run guy.
Erik Miller is enough
He could strike out Shohei Ohtani in every appearance, but my rational mind tells me that at some point having only one left-handed reliever will be bad for the Giants. Then again,
FanGraphs wrote back in 2023 about the observable phenomena of a decline in left-handed relief pitching overall, the result of the roster limitations and batter minimum rules. So, maybe this is less of a dream on my part and more of an acceptance of evolving reality. Still... those walks... his inning totals year over year. Nah, it’ll all work out. If not with him specifically, then the strategy itself.
A zombie form of the Giants-Dodgers rivalry appears
The official Giants-
Dodgers rivalry ended at some point in the last few years — arguably, when the Dodgers won the 2021 Division Series — and it feels like conventional wisdom now that the teams are in different leagues. Perhaps even playing different sports. While Buster Posey is trying to bring the Giants back to Major League Baseball, the truth is that the Dodgers have ascended to a different plane. His aura won’t be enough to close the gap.
Compounding matters is that it appears the Dodgers will surpass the Giants in the all-time head to head series. That series is comprised of 2,580 games (2,585 if you included the NLDS) going back to 1890. Heading into this season, it’s 1,284-1,279-17 in favor of the Giants, 1,286-1,282-17 if you include that NLDS.
Since the turn of the century, the Dodgers have led the rivalry 235-211 in the regular season, but in terms of a running tally...
the Dodgers have never led it. NEVER. Okay, to be
most accurate. They’ve never ended a season
ahead in W-L record. Maybe at some point over 130 or so years they’ve gone ahead at one point, but the Giants have always ended the season with the lead. Another 4-9 showing leaves the season series tied. Can the Giants go 5-8 against the presumptively best team in the league? Probably not, but that’s not what this dream is getting after exactly. The rivalry
feels dead. Oracle Park belongs to Dodgers fans. I dream of this series mattering again.
But enough about my hopes & dreams. What are yours for the Giants in 2025?