Philadelphia Flyers
Hall of Famer
Why acquiring David Jiricek is a massive risk for the Flyers
Source: https://www.broadstreethockey.com/post/why-acquiring-david-jiricek-is-a-massive-risk-for-the-flyers/
The NHL draft represents the league’s casino for fans and franchises alike. Much like the table games and slot machines lining the floor of a casino, the rounds and pick slots all represent different risk and value propositions to the beholder. Amongst the litany of games where the house has an overwhelming advantage, there are a few opportunities for sharp bettors to capitalize when the odds are right.
In this metaphor, a first round pick is blackjack. Statistically, blackjack is the table game with the closest edge between player and the house. Much like blackjack, first round picks are the most likely to result in success for the team making the selection. That said, not all first round picks, like not all hands in blackjack, play the same way.
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The sliding scale in pick slot value is immense. There is a larger gap in pick value from first overall to fifth overall than there is between 10th and 32nd overall. That value gap is why teams are willing to spend an entire season taking it on the chin in hopes of getting a lottery selection and ensuring a pick within the top 10.
For players selected in the top 10, there is a massive impetus on behalf of the organization to give them every opportunity to succeed. After spending an entire season icing a team that was bad enough to qualify for the lottery, stakeholders (GMs and coaches) have every incentive to make that bad season worth it.
So, when the Philadelphia Flyers acquired defenseman David Jiricek on Friday in exchange for Bobby Brink, it set off an alarm bell. Jiricek was the sixth overall pick of the Columbus Blue Jackets back in 2022, yet less than two full seasons after his selection, the Blue Jackets moved on.
Now, it is worth noting that Jarmo Kekäläinen, the GM that selected Jiricek in 2022, was fired in February of 2024. The following November, the Blue Jackets new GM, Don Waddell, sent Jiricek to the Minnesota Wild. So, with one of the stakeholders who’d made the initial choice out the door, there wasn’t as much institutional support for the Czech defenseman.
Yet, the Wild, who paid a first-, second-, third-, and a fourth-round pick, and prospect Dameon Hunt for Jiricek, tapped out on him after 31 NHL games over two seasons. With two different organizations deeming Jiricek not worth the squeeze in less than four years, there is a real game theory problem playing out in real time for the Flyers.
For all of the scouting and preparation the Flyers may have done in the lead up to consummating the trade on Friday, there’s no way they’d have more intel on Jiricek than either the Wild or Blue Jackets. For Columbus, they got an entire grocery list of assets to cut their losses on the defender. That makes it all the more concerning that less than two years after acquiring Jiricek that the Wild were more than willing to cut their losses for a singular piece in Brink.
What Workload Says
Improbable as it sounds for a player drafted in 2022, Jiricek has only played 84 career NHL games. In addition to the 84 games at the NHL level, the defender has logged 139 games in the AHL. Registering just 223 games in North American leagues over four years reveals an important subplot: injuries.
Hockey is an incredibly physical, taxing game. Injuries are an inherently unavoidable component to a sport where physical contact is a key component to entire phases of the game. In Jiricek’s case, the defender has a lacerated spleen (spring 2025), knee (January 2022) and hip (August 2021) on his ledger. Injuries aren’t an excuse, but they are context for a player’s performance, especially one that’s supposed to be in the ascending period of his career.
For a young player, especially on defense, so much of the early stages of NHL action are about getting their feet under them and understanding the game around them. It is especially concerning that the deeper into Jiricek’s career he’s gotten, he’s had his minutes faded
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Remember, the Blue Jackets took Jiricek in the top 10 and the Wild gave up five assets to acquire the defender. Both organizations had every reason to give the defender an opportunity to find his game and grow alongside their respective cores.
Yet, both the Blue Jackets and Wild went out of their way to give Jiricek an easy workload in the third pair minutes he has played so far in the NHL.
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Jiricek’s skillset is a challenge for typically risk-averse NHL coaches. For the defender to ever find his footing at the highest level, he’s going to need leeway to create offensively, which means taking chances and gambling to do it. In a third pair role, with minimal power play opportunities, it’s always going to be a challenge for someone like Jiricek to break through the glass ceiling.
The Ticking Clock
At 22 years old, Jiricek is by no means a finished product. There are plenty of players who take time to find a home in the NHL. So much of whether or not a prospect lives up to their potential and manages to stick as a 200+ game NHLer is tied to their situation. Getting drafted highly usually means a player is going to a bad team which offers an opportunity to play right away.
But Jiricek first in Columbus and then Minnesota failed to earn equity with his head coach. Unfortunately for young players, a lot of their fate is tied to whether or not a hockey lifer is willing to give them rope. You can be the best defenseman imaginable in your 14 minutes per game on the third pair, but that doesn’t even guarantee an opportunity to advance up the ladder.
The Blue Jackets’ first power play unit was always locked out to Jiricek because of Zach Werenski. Then, in Minnesota, the defender couldn’t ever pass Brock Faber, then later Quinn Hughes on the depth chart to play to his offensive strengths.
Think of the challenge for Jiricek. At every level of hockey he’s been a power play quarterback and playing first-pair minutes. Then, he achieves the goal, drafted high to an ascending team. Everything in front of him, but the things that make him valuable, his offensive traits, aren’t of as much value because of the role he plays. Said player’s confidence wanes because he can’t make as much of an impact, then spends the better part of the next four years volleying between riding the bus in the AHL and fighting for a roster spot in the NHL while being waivers exempt.
Now, Jiricek is on his third NHL team in four years with Jamie Drysdale and Rasmus Ristolainen ahead of him on the depth chart. While Ristolainen may ultimately depart in the summer as the Flyers continue to reorganize their roster, it’s going to be tough for Jiricek to leap frog Drysdale because of the investment the Flyers made in the latter.
While it’s not fair to compare Drysdale’s output to Cutter Gauthier’s in Anaheim, those two are inextricably linked forever. Gauthier was a fringe candidate for the US Olympic team while Drysdale’s first full season with the Flyers has been up and down as he approaches restricted free agency this summer.
If the Flyers hadn’t given up Brink as the return and it was simply picks or prospects outside of the NHL, I wouldn’t dislike the gamble nearly as much. But at this point, Jiricek is more of an idea than a player. While he has some NHL experience and a strong pedigree at lower levels of the game, he’s beginning to reach the danger zone of development.
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For the most part, the majority of NHL defenders will produce most of their career wins above replacement value by age 25. While there are outliers who breakout later than the most players, it’s hard to believe a player like Jiricek that’s failed to stick as a full time NHLer through four years will put it all together with players ahead of him on the depth chart and Rick Tocchet as his head coach.
Considering the fact that Brink, as a former second round pick, was at close to half a point per game on a team that struggled to produce offensively, swapping that out for a defenseman still trying to find himself seems like a bad bet for a team that at large still has significant roster questions for the near and short term.
Source
Source: https://www.broadstreethockey.com/post/why-acquiring-david-jiricek-is-a-massive-risk-for-the-flyers/